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Toronto enters this one 14 games behind the Yankees for the wild card. So if they can sweep them...


Friday: Brandon Morrow v. Ivan Nova

This has been Ivan Nova's breakout rookie season, though the degree to which he's broken out is somewhat debatable. His ERA, FIP and xFIP are all hanging around 4, and his strikeout to walk numbers (under 2:1) are not good. He does have gaudy pitcher wins numbers - 14 and 4 - and has won 10 straight decisions heading into tonight's game. And he's probably in the Yankees playoff rotation; sorry AJ. Where Nova succeeds is in getting ground balls, at almost twice the rate he gives up fly balls, and thus keeping the ball in the park. It's a pretty good skill. He is aided in doing this by a fastball that averages 93. He utilizes his curve a fair amount also, and it's a decent pitch that comes in hard for a curve, at about 80. Nova also has a good slider he'll use periodically, and a change-up he'll 4 or 5 times a game. Nova somehow has a 4.24 ERA against the Jays despite allowing an OPS of .855. Jose Bautista is 2 for 6 with 3 walks and a homer, Yunel Escobar 2 for 7, Adam Lind 3 for 7, and JPA 1 for 3.

Saturday: Ricky Romero v. Bartolo Colon

Oh Bartolo. This has been his best season since 2005 - he didn't even pitch last year - and forget left field, it's come out of the parking lot. Colon has regained his velocity, and is pumping in 4 seamers in the mid-low 90s (92-93) to go along with his sinker. He has a hard slider about 10 MPH slower, and like Nova will throw 4-5 change-up's a game. Because he's old and out of shape, pretty much everyone is speculating he is going to need a break before the post-season, or that he won't even make it there. It's probably not a good sign for the Yankees though that articles titled "Fan's Take: Bartolo Colon is the Key to Yankees' Postseason Plans" exist. Also, I don't really understand this but it seems like it might be funny. JPA and Joey Bats are both 2 for 6 with a homer, with the former walking once and the later thrice. Yunel is 4 for 7, Edwin 1 for 9, Lind 2 for 8 and Thames 2 for 4 with 2 doubles. Mike Bordick was 12 for 29 lifetime, maybe we can get him back.

Sunday: Brett Cecil v. Freddy Garcia

Also reclaimed from the island of misfit toys, Freddy Garcia's success has to be considered less shocking than Colon's, at least by a little. Garcia is three years younger and had a good season in 2009, though the end of his run as a consistently good pitcher was in 2005. Garcia has lost zip on his fastball though, almost four mph from his hey day, but the pitch has never been better than average in the Majors and he only throws it about a third of the time. To compensate Garcia's throwing his good split fingered pitch much more than he has in the past. Topping out around 80, Garcia gets good arm action on the splitter, while mixing in a pretty decent curve and still effective slider, and the occasional change-up. Jose is 4 for 8 with 2 home runs and 3 walks, Yunel 4 for 7, Jose Molina 9 for 25, Lind 2 for 6, Eric Thames 3 for 6 with 3 doubles (he sure does hit a lot of doubles), and Mark Teahan 8 for 24. Mike Bordick was only 3 for 15, so probably we want to cut him after Saturday's game.

Otherwise, the Yankees are the Yankees. They lead the majors in runs scored, and their bullpen is phenomenal. There was a Mariano Rivera is old scare a couple of weeks ago; since then he's thrown 7 scoreless innings allowing only 2 hits and striking out 11. So good luck with that one guys. David Robertson has been the best reliever for New York this season though. He has allowed 36 hits in 54.1 innings, while striking out 82. And only one of those hits was a home run. Rafael Soriano might be the team's worst reliever. Luis Ayala, Boone Logan, and Corey Wade have all be pretty good to very good. Scott Proctor was also just called up. Who knows if he's still good, A.T. (After Torre.)

Elsewhere, A-Rod has missed 5 straight games going into tonight, and is a game time decision... Mark Teixeira has a sore knee and was hit by a pitch yesterday, but is likely to play today... Since the All-Star Break Derek Jeter is hitting .343./.400/.436... Curtis Granderson needs to go 0/12 with 10 strikeouts, ideally... the Yankees have 8 hitters having better seasons than the Jays 3rd best hitter (Brett Lawrie by WAR). So for everyone who says the Jays need to fix their bullpen then worry about other stuff... respectfully, you don't know what you are talking about. Runs scored and saved count the same, and every team should be concentrating on trying to maximize their production from every spot in the lineup. Also,  three starters for the Yankees this series are all candidates to be in the Yankees playoff rotation, and two of them will probably start...

Infirmary: Sergio Mitre and Joba Chamberlain are both done for the year, while Damaso Marte may make it back for the playoffs.

Credit: Stats from Fangraphs, with an outfield assist from BR and Yahoo!


Advance Scout: New York Yankees, September 2-4 | 90 comments | Create New Account
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Mick Doherty - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#243034) #
As Da Box's most outspoken and admitted Yankee fan, let me say this: it's been a fun year. The Yanks are going to got to the playoffs. There was jeter's milestone(s), the comeback of Coloin and Garcia and the emergence of Nova to solidiy the rotation, Mo Rivera is still effective at the age of 83, so yeah, it's been a good and fun year.

But you know what? The Yankees just don't feel very good to this fan right now. If they meet up with Texas in the playofs again, they could be one-and-done and it should not surprise anyone.

jerjapan - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#243035) #
They Yanks, and especially Jeter, have been fun to watch this year.

Though it does seem to me that every year I look at the age of that roster and think this team could fall apart next season. 

Matthew E - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#243036) #
Though it does seem to me that every year I look at the age of that roster and think this team could fall apart next season.

I used to think that too. And maybe it'll happen someday. In the same sense that maybe the Orioles will be a decent team again someday: I'm not going to believe it until I actually see it, and maybe not even then. If I'm the Jays, I don't make any plans that assumes that the Yankees or Red Sox are ever going to be any worse than they are right now.
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#243037) #
Only three batters have put the ball in play on a bunt against Colon this year.  This baffles me.  A-Rod isn't Brooks Robinson out there, and Colon has the range of a mortally wounded moose.
sweat - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#243040) #
He would probably be winded afterwards as well.  Tough to throw strikes when you are breathing hard.
Anders - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#243041) #
Only three batters have put the ball in play on a bunt against Colon this year. This baffles me. A-Rod isn't Brooks Robinson out there, and Colon has the range of a mortally wounded moose.

I would suspect this is a matter of scoring. Just recalling the last time the Jays faced Colon...

R Davis reached on infield single to pitcher, E Encarnacion scored, T Snider to third, J Arencibia to second.
Y Escobar reached on infield single to pitcher, T Snider scored, J Arencibia to third, R Davis to second.

Lylemcr - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#243042) #

I heard somewhere that if the Jays get a bad enough record, they do not lose thier picks if they sign a type A free agent.  Is this true?  Give me more details....

Jonny German - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#243044) #
If the Jays finish 16th or worse in the overall MLB standings, their first-round pick will be protected, as in they will not lose it for signing a Type A free agent. They would instead lose their 2nd-round pick.
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#243045) #
You're probably right, Anders, but I wouldn't wait until runners are on 1st and 2nd to try.
Ishai - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#243047) #
Lyle: If a team finishes with a record in the bottom half of the league, then their first round pick is protected. Then if they sign a Type A free agent they would lose their second round pick instead of their first.
Mylegacy - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#243049) #
Mike - call AA and ORDER him to have us bunt more against Colon. Let Molina try first - IF he gets on safely - heck - lets all bunt!

Also about Jays and NY pitching: Consider three sets of most games started starters...

A: Fewer hits than innings pitched, 71 BB, 152 SO, .214 Ave against, 1.16 whip
A: One fewer hits than innings pitched, 50 BB, 201 SO, .250 Ave against, 1.18 whip

B: Fewer hits than innings pitched, 54 BB, 164 SO, .241 Ave against, 1.30 whip
B: Fewer hits than innings pitched, 72 BB, 137 SO, .259 Ave against, 1.44 whip

C: Fewer hits than innings pitched, 34 SO, 067 SO, .245 Ave against, 1.28 whip
C: More hits than innings pitched, 45 BB, 81 SO, .265 Ave against, 1.37 whip

A: Romero
A: Sabathia

B:Morrow
B: Burnett

C: Cecil
C: Nova

Throw in an ever improving Alvarez and we aren't light years behind by any means.

Mylegacy - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#243052) #
S.H.I.T...

It should be Burnett (not Sabathia) who has "One fewer hit than innings pitched" - all the other pitchers for both teams have at least a reasonably significant difference between innings pitched and hits. Sorry for the screw up..

92-93 - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#243062) #

But you know what? The Yankees just don't feel very good to this fan right now. If they meet up with Texas in the playofs again, they could be one-and-done and it should not surprise anyone.

It will surprise me. I'm the guy who laughed when you picked the Yankees to finish .500 or whatever it was.

 

jgadfly - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#243066) #

 "The Yanks, and especially Jeter, have been fun to watch this year."    ... jerjapan

I hate watching the Yankee$ play .  They're a bunch of classless whiners that question every close call that doesn't go their way .  The same goes for the Red $ox.  Both teams try to influence the umpires for future calls. They, (with Jeter being the worst offender),  stand there and give either a look of disdain or hurt or a combination of the two and play it so that their 50,000 fans will vociferously reinforce and validate their self-entitled opinions so that in future, when an umpire has a close call, one which he may be unsure of or have a creeping doubt about , he will allow  the anticipation of 'the look' or the roar of an intimidating crowd to colour his decision.

Also, the only time I enjoy watching the Yankee$ and the Red $ox play, is when the Jays are beating them or when they're playing each other, so that whichever way the play goes, one will  lose and the other will whine to no avail.

Also, (part 2), am I the only one who found the Yankee commentators complaining about the length of the game last night on TSN, a little rich ?

Mick Doherty - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#243069) #

A-Rod isn't Brooks Robinson

I dunno .... the injured A-Rod and the elderly B-Robby probably have about the same range right now ...

AWeb - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#243070) #

I would suspect this is a matter of scoring. Just recalling the last time the Jays faced Colon...

R Davis reached on infield single to pitcher, E Encarnacion scored, T Snider to third, J Arencibia to second.
Y Escobar reached on infield single to pitcher, T Snider scored, J Arencibia to third, R Davis to second.

Those were the "full swing chopper" types, as I recall one play would have been made by most anyone else on the mound, the other one was just one of those things. But yes, part of the strategy for beating Colon should absolutely be laying down some bunts. But does anyone left on the roster do that? Also, in interleague play, I would intentionally walk him just to make him run the bases once.

Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#243071) #
Why does this make me think of Brooks doing a commercial for Viagra or Cialis..."they don't call it the hot corner for nothing"? and then the 74 year old Brooks spears a screaming line drive?
Mike Green - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#243072) #
If Mike McCoy cannot lay down a bunt, he should not have a job.
92-93 - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#243073) #
McCoy layed down a very nice bunt single just yesterday.
Zao - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#243074) #
I hate watching the Yankee$ play . They're a bunch of classless whiners that question every close call that doesn't go their way . The same goes for the Red $ox. Both teams try to influence the umpires for future calls. They, (with Jeter being the worst offender), stand there and give either a look of disdain or hurt or a combination of the two and play it so that their 50,000 fans will vociferously reinforce and validate their self-entitled opinions so that in future, when an umpire has a close call, one which he may be unsure of or have a creeping doubt about , he will allow the anticipation of 'the look' or the roar of an intimidating crowd to colour his decision.

I don't disagree, but it's no worse than Bautista and Escobar before Dwayne Murphy gave them a talking to.
Lylemcr - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#243075) #

Let me get this right,

The Jays are right now 9th out of 14 teams in the AL, so thier first round pick is protected.  Is this a case where having a Type B free agent is better than having a Type A? 

smcs - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#243076) #
Both teams try to influence the umpires for future calls.

Every team does this.
jerjapan - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#243077) #
I don't like the Yankees themselves ... not a big fan of the overdog.  But like Mick said in his post, there have been some compelling story lines in the Bronx this year, particularly Jeter's 3000 and the Colon miracle comeback.  Not to mention the ageless wonder of Mo Rivera.  That said, I think we all prefer seeing them lose. 
Dave Rutt - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#243079) #
The Jays are right now 9th out of 14 teams in the AL, so thier first round pick is protected. Is this a case where having a Type B free agent is better than having a Type A?

The AL and NL aren't counted separately - the Jays need to be 16th or worse in all of MLB, not just the AL. MLBTR's Reverse Standings show that the Jays are currently two games "behind" the Reds for the last protected pick (i.e. they're 15th overall in baseball).

Also, it doesn't have anything to do with what type free agents the Jays have on their team right now. It only comes into play if the Jays sign a type A in the offseason.
China fan - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#243080) #

Anthopoulos says there will be about 6 September call-ups. So that's the maximalist option that I was kind of expecting -- including a few pitchers. AA hinted that Drabek will be among the 6 call-ups, and he confirmed that McGowan will be among them too. (Based on the 3.2 innings that he managed in his last outing, I'd have to expect that McGowan will be pitching out of the bullpen. Drabek too.)

So, probably three pitchers total, plus Hech, Cooper and Loewen?  Or maybe 4 pitchers and 2 position players?

China fan - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#243082) #

By the way, AA said the 6 call-ups are in addition to those activated from injury (Rauch and Villanueva). So the call-ups will be 5 prospects plus McGowan. One of them won't be Uviedo, who's been sent to NH to help in the playoffs. McGowan will probably be the first to be promoted. Then the rest by Sunday or Monday.

And AA also confirmed that he went all the way to Japan to take a look at Darvish.

smcs - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#243085) #
McGowan, Mastroianni, Cooper, Nix, Drabek and Brad Mills. Book it.
bball12 - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#243086) #
I've been rooting against the Yankees for almost 6 decades.

So far - it hasn't gone that well.

Magpie - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#243088) #
Outfield defense... what a concept.
Gerry - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#243091) #
My guess: Cooper; Loewen; McGowan; Drabek; Walters; and Mills.

Mastroianni could get the call instead of Mills because of the Rasmus injury.
Mick Doherty - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#243092) #
So far - it hasn't gone that well.

Well, you had a nice run in the late 1980s and early 1990s. And the period from about 1965-74 was just plain Ugly,
Glevin - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#243094) #
Nova is having a pretty good year, but the hype around him is almost entirely due to a ridiculous win total based on the highest run support in baseball. (9.41/game going into tonight). The Yankees score about 4 runs/game less for Colon who has a better ERA, WHIP, and K/BB ratio and so he's 8-9 instead of 15-4. Another reminder of the real value of wins as a stat.
TamRa - Friday, September 02 2011 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#243095) #
Mastroianni could get the call instead of Mills because of the Rasmus injury.

FWIW, Rasmus was quoted tonight saying that he expects to be activated when he's eligible on the 8th, which is very close to the date AA has suggested he'd add the call-ups so  - if Rasmus is correct, that may not be a consideration.


TamRa - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#243098) #
Consider the quotes from AA as reported by Gregor:

On McGowan…

He’s not entirely stretched out to start yet. He’s getting there, pitch count has gotten up to 70. We’ve talked about, would we have him make some starts and then be backed up, maybe go three or four innings? Is it best to maybe have him be in the bullpen right now, but not someone who is going to be used on back-to-back days, more of a long guy?


and


On Kyle Drabek…

“I know he hasn’t performed nearly as well as we all want him to ,and he wants to as well. But at the same time, right now … we have the rotation set the way it is,  so guys like Kyle, and so on, that are candidates for call-ups right now, everyone would come up as a reliever. If the opportunity presented itself, a starter got knocked out early, or we needed to give a guy a break, or we wanted to shut someone’s innings down … we have the ability to make a spot start.”

--------------------------------------------

Am i the only one who's thinking "Go ahead and let mcGowan and Drabek do tandem starts as happens in the GCL"?


Seriously, Start McGowan and let him go to his pitch count limit, or five innings, whichever comes first, then have Drabek prepared just as if he were the starter and let him come in and try to finish the game.


McGowan needs routine - Drabek needs at least the potential for multiple innings to see if he's learned anything.

And Perez can go back to being a solid pen option. Should at least be able to do that twice after the last off day.

I'd also appoint McGowan as the assumed long reliever for both Romero's starts vs Boston (just in case the pattern holds) which would line him up nicely for the two starts.

Like this

9/3 - @NYY - Romero
9/4 - @NYY - Cecil
9/5 - Boston - Alvarez
9/6 - Boston - Perez
9/7 - Boston - Morrow
9/8 - Boston - Romero (McGowan - 6 days rest)
9/9 - Baltimore - Cecil
9/10 -  Baltimore - Alvarez
9/11 - Baltimore - Perez
9/12 -
9/13 - @Boston - Morrow
9/14 - @Boston - Romero (McGowan - 5 days rest)
9/15 -
9/16 - NYY - Cecil
9/17 - NYY - Alvarez
9/16 - NYY - Morrow
9/19 - LAA - Romero
9/20 - LAA - McGowan/Drabek
9/21 - LAA - Cecil
9/22 - LAA - Alvarez
9/23 - @TBR - Morrow
9/24 - @TBR - Romero
9/25 - @TBR - McGowan/Drabek
9/26 - @CWS - Cecil
9/27 - @CWS - Alvarez
9/28 - @CWS - Morrow


What's wrong with that? Other than Romero screwing it up by being great v. Boston i mean.


bpoz - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#243100) #
bball12, How has McGowan looked in NH. Any insights?

FB Velocity & location.

The other pitches:-
Are they moving nicely. Location etc...

Lastly as he is finishing his outing, has he lost much stuff at the end compared to the beginning.

Thanks for anything you have observed.

bpoz - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#243101) #
We all know that the pen has been weak since the Rasmus trade. Weaker still on recent days when Janssen, Rauch & FF were not available.

So NYY & Boston destroy it IMO. However Villy & J Carreno did quite well in a VERY tight game. This is a great test for the 2nd tier BP guys as well as Alvarez & Perez.

As far as McGowan is concerned, I just want him to be healthy and show that he has recovered enough to face ML hitters. Show decent stamina & quality in his pitches. He still has an off season for further recovery.
John Northey - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#243102) #
I'd probably plan on McGowan backup up Morrow since he can't seem to go longer than 6 against anyone lately (4 straight of 6 or less). Generally you want 7+ out of your starters, but if you get 6 or less your pen gets tired.

Checking our current rotation...
Romero: 6 or less: 7, 7 or more: 18, inbetween: 2
Morrow: 6 or less: 14, 7 or more: 8, inbetween: 3
Cecil: 6 or less: 7 (all 5+), 7 or more: 7, inbetween: 2
Alverez: 6 or less: 4 (all 5+), 7 or more: 1, inbetween: 0
Perez: 6 or less: all 3 (5/5/6 IP)

Very surprised that Cecil has yet to go less than 5 IP. 9 of Romero's were 8+ which really save a bullpen (he sure seems determined to be Halladay #2). The headache is Morrow though - he has one game where he threw 8, never pitched into the 9th this year. He really has to work on getting that pitch count down or his value will be limited as the pen throws around 3 innings every start for him thus he counts on the quality of the 3rd best reliever at best (since few go more than 1 IP).

I'd say Morrow needs a planned backup more than anyone on this staff. I'd probably do the same for Perez & Alverez as well. With guys like Litsch, McGowan, and Drabek in the pen you could do this for September (Carreno or Villanueva if Drabek left down), telling each to plan on 3 innings each time (innings 7/8/9). Then we have Romero & Cecil getting the rest of the pen (Francisco, Camp, Janssen, Carreno/Villanueva, Lewis) with the rest being available also if either guy doesn't do his job on the tandem starts.

This could work well for September with the deep pen, allowing starters (or ex-starters) to be able to plan their outings even if they aren't starting. Help keep inning counts down and avoid draining the pen on Morrow/Alvarez/Perez starts.
bball12 - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#243103) #
bpoz,

I really am not very good at assessing pitchers - and never have been.
I tend not to pay much attention to them during a game - (despite their paramount importance in every game).

The only things I tend to pick up on in a game is a pitchers composure, how he holds runners on and how he works through a game when he doesn't have his best stuff.
Thats about it.

But as for giving a critique on any pitcher - I am just not very good at it so I dont think I could add any valuable insight.


 

Glevin - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#243110) #
Don't know if anyone's discussed this yet, but a very interesting article on ESPN about how technology is changing baseball. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6908844/information-age-changing-way-game-played

Tampa is now the team that uses individual shifts much more than anyone else. According to research, it has saved them 62 runs. This could be a very valuable key to any club, jumping on new information and getting an edge while other teams remain old-school for a decade.
bball12 - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#243111) #
Glevin - with a minor exception or two - "old school baseball" hasn't been played in the major leagues for about 20 years.

Its been - for the most part - "beer softball league" stuff for 2 decades - aided by Steroids.
For me - the game got a bit boring.

It is changing a little bit now - but it is still OK to accept a .220 hitter with 20 HR's (most of them meaningless) and bad defense - baserunning and baseball instinct.

However - it worked for baseball - dollar wise . It got the fannies in the seats.

I really hope that the game keeps migrating back to old school baseball.
I dont like beer league softball games - and I certainly dont want to pay much for that.





Anders - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#243118) #
Tampa is now the team that uses individual shifts much more than anyone else. According to research, it has saved them 62 runs. This could be a very valuable key to any club, jumping on new information and getting an edge while other teams remain old-school for a decade.

Just to be clear, they lead the majors with 62 runs saved this year, not that their specific defensive positioning. I'm sure it does help, but they do have a number of fine defenders, Longoria, Zobrist, etc.

Glevin - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#243120) #
"Just to be clear, they lead the majors with 62 runs saved this year, not that their specific defensive positioning. I'm sure it does help, but they do have a number of fine defenders, Longoria, Zobrist, etc."

The next closest team is the Angels with 34 runs saved which is an absolutely enormous difference. Tampa has a good defense, but it's not twice as good as the next best team. The shifts (of which Tampa does way more than anyone else) must be a massive factor.
FranklyScarlet - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#243121) #
Glevin
Maddon's not the only one:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11250


Glevin - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#243127) #
Thanks for the link. Other teams obviously do pay attention to spray charts, Tampa just does it more than anyone else. Rays have done 369 shifts. The next team is the Indians with 249. (Jays are fourth with 167). They aren't just doing them, they are doing them on another level and it's working. If doing more defensive shifts save you an extra 40 runs a year, why are you not doing it? In the Jays case this year, an extra 40 runs would put them roughly tied with Tampa for run differential.
Glevin - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#243128) #
Thanks for the link. Other teams obviously do pay attention to spray charts, Tampa just does it more than anyone else. Rays have done 369 shifts. The next team is the Indians with 249. (Jays are fourth with 167). They aren't just doing them, they are doing them on another level and it's working. If doing more defensive shifts save you an extra 40 runs a year, why are you not doing it? In the Jays case this year, an extra 40 runs would put them roughly tied with Tampa for run differential.
Gerry - Saturday, September 03 2011 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#243131) #
Rajai Davis played for Dunedin tonight. He hit a home run, he must love hitting in that park, remember spring training?
TamRa - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#243134) #
Hechavarria, Loewen, and Mastro all playing in Vegas tonight, but when i started listening to the game, Chris Woodward was in the booth with Russ Langer.

Just now, as Langer thanked Woodward for being there he said "go up there and have fun, best of luck to you"

Now Langer is reporting that, indeed, Woodward is leaving for Toronto tonight.

Dave Rutt - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 02:06 AM EDT (#243136) #
That 62 number seems misleading, but it's hard to tell exactly what it means when it's just quoted without explanation. I hope someone on the fan side does a more rigorous study on this soon.

Also, I don't know what metric BIS is using but there's a lot of disagreement about defensive stats and, according to FanGraphs, the Rays are a somewhat less impressive 3rd in the majors, about 13 runs behind the Diamondbacks and five behind the Red Sox.
smcs - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 03:21 AM EDT (#243137) #
They aren't just doing them, they are doing them on another level and it's working. If doing more defensive shifts save you an extra 40 runs a year, why are you not doing it? In the Jays case this year, an extra 40 runs would put them roughly tied with Tampa for run differential.

I'm not sure if all of the runs saved are because of their shifts. I mean, it would stand to reason that the predominance of their shifts would come when the bases are empty. I think it would also make sense that the effect of the shift would be seen in the relation between the Rays' GB% and BABIP versus the rest of the league. By all means, if you can think of a better way, or see a flaw in my reasoning, then I would be more than happy to hear it, and try to test it. What I've found is that, basically, the Rays' GB% and BABIP numbers are less positively correlated (the higher the GB%, the higher the BABIP, where 1 is perfect positive correlation) when the bases are empty (0.38 for the league and 0.19 for the Rays) and more negatively correlated (the higher the GB%, the lower the BABIP, where -1 is perfect negative correlation) when there are men on (-0.34 for the league and -0.43 for the Rays). This really could be a product of luck or that I have no idea what I am doing. The Orioles show almost zero correlation between GB% and BABIP when the bases are empty (0.03, to be exact). This is by no means perfect, or even a good method, just something I thought of.

The Rays also sport the lowest GB% when bases are empty (40.0%, where 2nd worst is 41.7% and best is 49.3%). They jump to 44.3% with men on base, where the lowest is 40.3% and the highest is 47.3%.

Looking more closely at the Defensive Runs Saved stat, the Rays rank really well in terms of rPM, which looks at the players range and the ability to turn a batted ball into an out, at both SS and 2B. As I understand it, DRS takes into account where a player starts a okay and how far they actually have to travel to make an out. To me, the Rays superiority in this category is due to ability, positioning or small sample size. Maybe the Rays just have the best defensive players and that's what makes them the best. Maybe the shifts that they do are worth that much and the players are just lucky. Maybe the DRS system simply hasn't codified enough plays where the 2B is turning a ball into an out from short right field.

Perhaps Joe Maddon has just figured out a better way to do things. I'm hesitant to believe this as the maxim regarding fielding stats is three years of stats before conclusions can really be drawn. But the underlying stats do show something that can be inferred as ability, positioning or luck.
Glevin - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 05:31 AM EDT (#243138) #
"To me, the Rays superiority in this category is due to ability, positioning or small sample size. Maybe the Rays just have the best defensive players and that's what makes them the best. Maybe the shifts that they do are worth that much and the players are just lucky."

I am not saying this is a 100% perfect analysis yet, but that some initial numbers look amazing and that this, I believe, is the next place where teams can get a real leg up by doing something that most of their competition isn't (to the same extent). If you think about the theory, I think there is no way that aggressive shifting doesn't help some. There has been some discussion about this on individual players. For example, teams realised that Teixera as a LHB pulls the ball exclusively so they started to shift. His peripheral numbers (gb/fb%, % swings out of the zone) remain the same, but his BABIP has fallen enormously.

Some analysis of this here (http://captnsblog.wordpress.com/2011/05/18/what%E2%80%99s-left-mark-teixeira%E2%80%99s-evolution-as-a-hitter/ and here http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/sports/baseball/for-yankees-teixeira-would-be-hits-are-swallowed-by-a-shift.html?pagewanted=all)

John Northey - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#243148) #
OK, is today a write off? In the lineup we see the following...

McCoy SS (leadoff)
Teahen LF (6th)
Molina DH (7th)
Wise CF (9th)

None of those 4 should be starting in a game that matters at all as they are all bench (at best) guys.

Now, I understand why (injuries) but geez is that depressing to look at.
katman - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#243150) #
I'd much rather see Loewen out there today, if they need OF so badly. Might as well be Mastro as well, at this point.
92-93 - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#243152) #
Can we please stop fawning over Adam Loewen because he's Canadian? If he could play CF, he'd be up. He can't, and you can't leave your SP out to dry with horrendous OF defense just because some of you want to get a look at a 27 year old with a sub .900 OPS in the PCL who is essentially doing what Jarrett Hoffpauir did there last year, minus the plate discipline.

I'd imagine the coaching staff has been made aware of Molina's Type B status and will do everything in their power to keep him there.
Thomas - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#243153) #
Can we please stop fawning over Adam Loewen because he's Canadian?

I would hardly call it "fawning" to express a preference to see Adam Loewen instead of Mark Teahen in left (even though Teahen had a solid game at the plate). And there's no evidence that leads to "horendous" outfield defense to have him in a corner.

Some Bauxites may give Loewen more hype than he "merits", but I think a lot of that comes from the fact he was a highly-rated hitting prospect when drafted, before Baltimore chose to have him develop as a pitcher, and he has limited professional batting experience. However, as he's surpassed 1,500 professional at-bats, I think it's becoming clear what sort of player Loewen most likely will develop into.

scottt - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#243154) #
So, will they DFA Rauch?
92-93 - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#243155) #
There are 5.5 million reasons to be giving Teahen playing time instead of Loewen. If, as so many of you want, Teahen will be kicked to the curb, they best be sure he can't bring anything to the table. You can't know that from one PH appearance every 5g. If Loewen's play warranted playing time, he'd be getting it.
Thomas - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#243156) #
You can't know that from one PH appearance every 5g.

However, his last 2,000 major league plate appearances are likely to give some indication of his ability.

Thomas - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#243157) #
So, will they DFA Rauch?

No.

92-93 - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#243158) #

However, his last 2,000 major league plate appearances are likely to give some indication of his ability.

2,000 PA for another organization are likely to give far less of an indication of a player's ability than 1500 PA for your own organization. There's value in letting AA & the coaching staff see Teahen play a bit.

bball12 - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#243159) #
Regardless of long term plans - it will be great to see Adam Loewen make it back to the bigs.

And he cant play any worse what we we are now putting out on the field.
Its not possible.

I rather see a good storyline at this point - Loewen - Coop etc... than what we are seeing now.

This is not enjoyable - IMO.

 




Richard S.S. - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#243161) #

Mark Teahen is under guaranteed contract for $5.5 MM for 2012.   Whether he starts, is on the Bench or is waived, you are still paying $5.5 MM regardless.   Unless A.A. is mistaken, Teahen can play the corners on the infield and the outfield.   For just next year, I can see A.A. keeping Teahan, for no other reason, than not wanting to pay twice for the same roster spot.

Kelly Johnson is the best available 2B this offseason.   Our depth in the Minors, at this position, is weak, but slowly improving.   Signing Johnson should be a priority - say $18.0 MM over 3 years plus option year(s).

Will we have 6 Relievers or 7 Relievers and a smaller Bench?

hypobole - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#243162) #

Richard, have to agree on Teahen.

 On the other hand, we have Hech in AAA. I think one more year of KJ would be perfect, either through arb or as a FA, even if it takes a bit of an overpay to get it done  This would allow him to rebuild his value a la Beltre last year with the Bosox.

I don't think there will much choice about having at least 7 relievers (although hopefully we've seen the last of the 8 man pen). As a group, our starters aren't exactly innings eaters.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#243163) #
That is Juan Rivera logic, and it takes you to fourth place. If you believe that Teahen is able to fill the role as well as anyone else available for a reasonable price, fine. Otherwise, DFA.
hypobole - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#243165) #

That is Juan Rivera logic, and it takes you to fourth place.

I'm far from a Mark Teahen fan, but I don't quite see how Teahen as the 25th man on the roster will take us from the pennant to 4th place. Would I like to see someone much better in hiis stead? Of course.. But I don't think he'll be dumped, at least not until a similar timeframe as Rivera. If he is going to be given the playing time Rivera was provided, it would be an issue, but barring a complete career reversal, that's not going to happen.

John Northey - Sunday, September 04 2011 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#243166) #
This is how you separate the good from the great franchises. Being able to recognize 'sunk costs'. In 2012 the Jays will pay $5.5 million to Mark Teahen. They have a choice on how to deal with that.

Either...
A) Pay $5.5 and have Teahen on your bench at age 30 after a 44 OPS+ season (so far) which came after 3 90-94 OPS+ seasons. 2007 was his last decent season, 2006 the one and only where he showed an ability to be a good starting player. If your scouts and coaches say he can be that again, great - keep him around and try to do a Bautista or Encarnacion to him.

B) Accept that you will never again see that $5.5 million and let him go while bringing in someone else for $500k (McCoy, any of the AAA'ers, etc.) or someone a bit better for another $1.5-$3 million (McDonald or someone a bit better).

Keeping Teahen for September makes sense - be certain as to what you have as a wins here or there (can't imagine Teahen affecting more than 1 or 2 outcomes vs his likely replacements) won't change where the Jays end up this year.

2011 is all about figuring out what the Jays assets are. Is Teahen an asset or a liability (ie: above or below what the 25th man would be in 2012). This year they figured out Nix, Patterson, and Rivera are not assets at the major league level (ie: they are very easy to replace). They also learned that Bautista is for real, JPA is a decent catcher, Hill is not just slumping but is no longer an everyday 2B, Escobar is a star SS, Davis is a good backup, Encarnacion actually can hit as long as he is just a DH (sOPS 128 as DH, 92 or less elsewhere), Thames is a hitter but not a fielder, Snider is not a stud and may not develop, Lawrie is 'wow', Romero an ace (or close enough), etc. and now they need to know if Teahen is a keeper or a dumper.
bball12 - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#243182) #
I would agree with Mike on this one.

The Teahan-Wise moves - just like the Patterson-Rivera experience - indicates some weakness in the Jays handling of the bench/backup roles.

On the one hand - The upgrading of the starting lineup has been great this year..
You have to be - at the very least - satisfied with what we saw from JPA and Thames - very happy with Escobar and absolutely thrilled from Lawrie.

But the handling of the bench roles have been painful.

Noone needed to watch Patterson/Rivera for 3 months to know they could not contribute.
They havent contributed for about 10 years now - why would that change?
Same for Teahan and Wise- they are known quantities.

You gain absolutely nothing from these types of moves - and it most certainly doesn't move you closer to anything other than a firm grip on 4th or 5th place.

Very disappointing - lets hope we see Loewen/Cooper/anyone else out there soon - as I really don't want to watch more retreads at this point of the season.

 






 



Chuck - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#243183) #

Keeping Teahen for September makes sense - be certain as to what you have

Is this really necessary? What if injuries were to force Teahen into a great deal of playing time. And say, in 70 AB, he were to hit 325/425/550. Would that mean anything? And what if, instead, he were to hit 180/240/320? Would that tell you anything?

I can't help but think that there is enough evidence on the table to gauge who Mark Teahen likely is at this point in his career. Of course, you can never know 100% for sure what a man has left in the tank, but you have to think that his last 1000-1500 PAs would serve as a more meaningful indicator than would some random September at-bats.

John's point about the sunk cost thing is, of course, dead on. What if Teahen were not scheduled to make all that money? What if he were on the Patterson payment program? Would you even bother keeping him around?

Teahen's salary was one of the costs of acquiring a seemingly high upside Colby Rasmus. Sign the cheque. Walk away.

hypobole - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#243192) #

This is how you separate the good from the great franchises.

Few would consider separating good from great franchises based on the 25th man on their roster. I would think most of us would consider Boston as a franchise to emulate, yet they have carried Darnell McDonald, hitting all of .194/. 264/.367 for almost the entire season.

No one here is arguing Teahen will have a sudden career resurgence. And maybe the Jays will find someone else they'd rather have collecting butt splinters as their 25th man. It just seems to me, the likelihood of Teahen breaking camp with the Jays next year is at least as great as the team simply dumping him and paying another marginally better player to sit on the bench most of next season.  

John Northey - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#243193) #
Actually, the 25th man isn't my point on separating good from great, but more franchises that figure out that players who are no longer useful will cost the same in dollars if kept or not are ones that can make better judgments.

If Teahen in 2012 will be a sub-replacement level player then it is best for the team to dump him and get someone else who will be a replacement level player.

As to Teahen's ability... he has had 2 years (2006-2007 1047 PA 110 OPS+) that were better than anything Jose Bautista showed before last year.

Bautista's first two seasons in the majors 127 PA with a 27 OPS+ vs Teahen's 2011 155 PA with a 49 OPS+ - both cases of a player sitting on a bench getting sporadic playing time.

Their other seasons (not counting 2009 when Bautista finally figured it out in September)? Bautista: 1507 PA 94 OPS+ (age 25-27); Teahen: 1456 PA 92 OPS+ (age 26-28).

Now, am I saying Teahen is another Bautista? No. But the spread between them pre-Bautista becoming a star is a lot less than one would expect. As I recall many here felt Bautista should be let go after both 2008 and 2009, wondering if he'd be worth what he'd get in arbitration.

Teahen might be what Bautista (and himself) were before - namely decent backups for 3B/1B/OF worth a couple mil on the bench. 320 OBP, 400 Slg would be acceptable from a 25th man covering 4 defensive slots (1B/3B/LF/RF) emergency in 2 more (CF/2B). If, however, he hits more like this year 189/252/301 then he costs the team rather than helps and must be let go. Is he a $5.5 million player? No. Is he a decent backup? Maybe. Is he worth a slot in September? Easily.
greenfrog - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#243201) #
Alvarez looks very, very solid. I'm thinking he's in the rotation to stay, barring some unlikely regression. Plus stuff and very good control and command.
bball12 - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#243202) #
Prediction - Lawrie is going to hit a walk off homer for the win.



electric carrot - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#243203) #
bball got any feelings about what goes up in the stock market tomorrow?
smcs - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#243204) #
Now, am I saying Teahen is another Bautista? No. But the spread between them pre-Bautista becoming a star is a lot less than one would expect.

We will never seen anything again like Jose Bautista. Ever. Stop comparing players to Bautista. It's like comparing Adam Loewen or Rick Ankiel to Babe Ruth because they used to be pitchers and then became hitters.
hypobole - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#243205) #
bball12, just like Babe Ruth calling the shot
greenfrog - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#243206) #
Nice call!
dan gordon - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#243207) #

Alvarez is a terrific looking yong pitcher.  The movement on his fastball is amazing.  Terrific changeup.  What a job he did today against that loaded Boston lineup.  That's 14 shutout innings combined in his last 2 starts.

Lawrie is already a force to be reckoned with at the age of 21.  He seems to be getting better in the field on a daily basis.  That was a terrific play to make the tag on the runner with the bare hand and make the quick throw to get the DP.  Two walks today were nice to see, in addition to the HR.  Another steal without getting caught.  Future MVP candidate.

Francisco has been excellent lately.  That's 15 consecutive scoreless appearances, totalling 16 innings.  I'd like to see him brought back for next year, if the price is right.

Maybe we see McGowan tomorrow.

JohnL - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#243211) #
Alan Ashby, after that home run, and over the din:  "Brett Lawrie is now a star"

Also praised his defence.

TamRa - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#243212) #
99 times out of 100 i reject what I'm about to say as foolishness but, in Lawrie's case...

I think he should hit third next year.

There, i said it.
------------------------------

Alvarez is making a great case to stick in the majors.

----------------------------

I'd like to see Perez get 5 IP tomorrow and McGowan start the sixth in an unofficial tandem.

----------------------------

Francisco, since July 14:
19.1 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 15 K, 0.47 ERA

Since May 31:
30 - 28 - 7 - 8 - 26 - 2.10 ERA
and five of those seven ER came in two appearances, 2 on July 1 and 3 on July 7

bpoz - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#243214) #
Alvarez has set the bar high for the next 3 guys. All our pitchers were good today, so was Bostons.

Maybe Papelbon was not so good. He got the job done but IMO he struggled...he seemed not sure of himself and took a long time to finish.
scottt - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#243217) #
Resigning Francisco and losing an extra draft pick? I'd be surprised.
He had a good August, but it was against some of the weaker offensive teams.
scottt - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#243218) #
Lawrie is killing my dream of a protected draft pick.
Landomar - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#243219) #

Alvarez has been exciting to watch in the big leagues so far.  He's still very young, of course, but I feel really good about him as a long term starting pitcher for us.  Looking at what we have still in the minors, the way Hutchison and Molina are pitching....is anyone else already thinking about a Romero, Alvarez, Hutchison, Molina foundation for 2013 and beyond?  Hutchison and Molina could both be ready for later in 2012, even, similar to how Alvarez came up this season.  Pitching prospects are fairly unpredictable, but right now, all four of those guys look like they are going to have great careers.

BlueJayWay - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#243222) #
Yeah, the way Hutchison and Molina are dominating, I wouldn't be surprised to see them sometime in 2012.
Spifficus - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#243223) #

I think he should hit third next year.

I think that with his natural agressiveness, he'd slot in well at #5 (predicated on paying significantly for a Fielder-esque bat for #4, which I've definitely warmed up to over the past month or two).

TamRa - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#243235) #
Resigning Francisco and losing an extra draft pick? I'd be surprised.
He had a good August, but it was against some of the weaker offensive teams.


No, he had three consecutive excellent months - take away two appearances and he's had three insanely good months.

The system is now exceedingly well stocked and there comes a point where the marginal advantage of the extra pick is reduced. Take Johnson for instance - what has more marginal for the Blue Jays - Johnson over, say, Scutaro at 2B next year, or one more prospect in a pool of players 80% of which fail?

I'm not certain Frank is the best option for the closer role in 2012, but if he is, losing the pick is not a deal breaker.


Hutchison and Molina could both be ready for later in 2012

One word of caution I've heard no one else express - as much as I love the results this year, both players are far beyond 120% of their previous high in IP. It's a realistic possibility that either or both will regress next year as a result.
I wouldn't pencil them into the majors just yet.
jamesq - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#243237) #
Shi Davidi has tweeted the following September call ups:

Loewen, Drabek, Cooper, Mills, Beck, Farquhar. Eagerly awaiting a game in which Lawrie & Loewen shine.

bpoz - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#243250) #
Speaking of young pitchers, does anyone remember Bret Saberhagen?
My facts may not be completely accurate. He had a good career. He was drafted as a 19 year old SS and converted to pitching immediately. He made it to the Majors real fast, I think the year after he was drafted. I think he may have won the ROY and also that year was a big contributor to his team winning the WS. He was skinny and looked so young.

I cannot remember his managers name.

This was in the 1980s and I don't think he was on a IP limit, but I am not sure. May have even been the era of the 4 man rotation.

If my facts are reasonably accurate then I want to say...you never know!!
John Northey - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#243272) #
Good ol' http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saberbr01.shtml has the answers.

Sabs reached the majors at the age of 20 after just 1 season in the minors (187 IP at 19 in A/AA) and he didn't go back to the minors until rehabbing at 33. 157 2/3 IP at 20 in the majors, 235 1/3 at 21, winning the Cy Young. Then some DL time and ineffectiveness at 22 (102 ERA+ still) followed by 3 seasons of 250+ IP before injuries hit again. He never again threw 200 IP, but came close once (196 at age 27). At 25 he won a second Cy Young, 3rd place for Cy at 30 (1994). Did the heavy workload from 19 to 25 cause him to never again be really healthy (other than 1994 and 1998 when he had 31 starts)? Maybe. Only twice was he under 100 for ERA+ which surprised me (age 33 over 6 starts and his final season at age 37 over 3 starts) as he was thought of as having good/bad years alternating. Like Dave Stieb he was well shy of 200 wins but viewed as one of the best of his era (both in the Hall of Merit but not even a sniff at the Hall of Fame). His first manager was Dick Howser.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#243274) #
The Teahan-Wise moves - just like the Patterson-Rivera experience - indicates some weakness in the Jays handling of the bench/backup roles.

I don't agree with this so much.

Wise and Patterson are exactly what you want - guys with some talent on minor league deals, who may be able to contribute when they're hot. The only reason Patterson was on this team was because he performed - and performed well - for a good while. Otherwise, he was on a minor league deal and wasn't even expected to make the team. Wise as well is here only because of injuries. Either way, these guys are on minor league deals and can be sent down at will. I have zero problem with that.

Rivera and Teahen are different - they are roster-cloggers who prevent the team from helping itself by giving that spot to a hotter hand on a minor league deal.

The thing is, Teahen is harder to take than Rivera....because, well, Rivera is actually a good hitter. 99ops+ last year, 111ops+ the year before, career 104ops+....and better numbers than that against LHP. With question marks at LF, 1B, and DH coming into the year, and especially with LF and 1B being manned by lefties with poor LHP splits, keeping Rivera actually made some sense.

Teahen, though, is worse than all of those. If he was on a minor league deal like Wise and Patterson he would actually be an asset - a guy who we could call up if he was playing well, but a guy we didn't have to hold on to otherwise. But with his contract, he's never going to have value as an asset, and as a player, he's not a better option than countless other guys we could get on minor league deals....but he's worse for the team than those other guys because while we could send them down and replace them with hotter players when they suck, we're stuck keeping Teahen through thick and thin.

Teahen has a negative value to this team no matter which way we look at it.
grjas - Tuesday, September 06 2011 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#243325) #
TamRa - Monday, September 05 2011 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#243212) # "99 times out of 100 i reject what I'm about to say as foolishness but, in Lawrie's case...I think he should hit third next year."

Absolutely. Frankly he is ready now, though better to wait till the new year. Sure he's only been up for 6 or so weeks, but this guy is fearless. He won't be psyched out by moving him up this quickly.

And his defense has been a lot better than advertised. This guy is the one out a hundred ... he is going to be special.
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