Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - TDIB 27 July 2010: 9-5

TDIB 27 July 2010: 9-5

I went to my first Jays game of the year last night (I've been out of the country most of the season), and had a great time enjoying what we've been treated to this whole year - home runs and starting pitching. Not to mention tiny crowds!

I watched from the outfield seats as Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Jose Bautista went deep to give the Jays a 9-5 victory. There were also a couple balls off the wall, including one by Lind (if memory serves) that was literally inches from going out. The offense looked great, jumping all over Brad Bergesen to pound out those nine runs. Even the non-homers were not cheapies - the offense was hitting line drive after line drive. It was a treat to watch, even without my glasses.

Brandon Morrow ended with a good line of 6 innings, 2 runs. He walked four guys, though from my spot I couldn't tell if he was nibbling or just not getting some critical calls. The crowd seemed to think it was the latter. There were a few ugly swings by Orioles hitters, but on the whole I didn't think Morrow seemed particularly dominant.

Jose Bautista was probably the player of the game - he homered, doubled and gunned down a runner at second base. I know there are some people who want Bautista to be traded so the Jays can get some value for him, but I'm on the side of holding on to the guy and trying to extend him. I see him as the third baseman of the next few years, but he can also play the outfield if the situation warrants. Problem is, his value is a peak right now. Anyway, not a full analysis, but what do y'all think?

Around the seventh inning, I wandered to a little cafeteria in the outfield concourse called Market something or something Market or something. It was great! I got sweet potato fries with a delicious sauce and my cousin got nachos that were well beyond any stadium nachos I've ever eaten. And everything on the menu looked just as good. I can't remember the RC ever having particularly good food, and apparently this little spot is new just this year. I've long thought stadiums were missing out on a great opportunity of bringing in local restaurants to operate their own little food stand, and maybe the RC is starting to move in this direction - Toronto would be the perfect candidate for this type of thing given its extremely diverse cuisine. I didn't do a full stadium tour - has anyone else noticed anything like this?

Anyway, apologies for the scattered nature of this TDIB. Um, to sum up... Baseball! Discuss.

Posted by Dave Rutt on Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 08:19 AM EDT.

TDIB 27 July 2010: 9-5 | 116 comments | Create New Account

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allcanadian34 - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#219228) #

I actually went to my first Blue Jays game in, dare I say it, 15 years for their early July series vs. Boston. As I live in Ottawa, Jays games have to be a road trip and, to be honest, I was always too disappointed with the team come July to want to spend the cash to come down. I'd still watch the games on TV, but saw no reason to go in person. Anyways, back to topic...

I completely agree with you on that Market something something restaurant! I had the angus burger and my buddy had the chicken nachos and they were both very good. Not much different pricing than a sit-down type restaurant and the quality was just about as good. I was also pleasantly surprised by the outfield seats we had. We were in the first row, I want to say 103?? , which was closer to CF than RF, but nearly perfect seats to take in the game on a 40 degree afternoon (shaded!).

In terms of the baseball, I am SO excited about this team, I am going back again in September. That's right, September! We've got 1st row behind first base, so maybe we'll be seeing Brett Wallace at that point, who knows? In July, we saw Morrow one day and Litsch the next. I was actually impressed by both. Morrow has a great demeanor on the mound and I loved the way he challenged the Boston batters. Most of them couldn't catch his fastball even when everyone in the building knew it was coming. Jays won that one 9-6 I think. Great game. I also was impressed by Jesse, who pitched 6 solid innings, but they left him in too long and he gave up 3 runs in back to back HRs in the 7th for the loss. Tough loss, but also a fun game to watch.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#219229) #

This "Market" spot sounds interesting. We will give it a try next time we're down at the cable guys joint.

Bautista presents as a classic RF/3B dilemma which Steve Treder wrote about in the Hardball Times. His defensive skills are above average for a player of the type. Bautista's HR pop arrived after he moved to the outfield; it might be a coincidence or it might be a consequence of lessened defensive responsibility allowing more focus on the offensive side of his game. It seems to me that he is more naturally a right-fielder, so I would be inclined to leave him there. I like him a lot, and would be happy if he was extended.

Flex - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#219231) #

So AA really has a dilemma on his hands. If he extends Bautista as a right fielder, what's to be done with Fred Lewis and Travis Snider? Presumably you give Snider the left-field job, but that seems unfair to Lewis, who gives the Jays a lot at the top of the order. Does he automatically become the fourth outfielder and it's "thanks for your services but now take a seat on the bench"?

What to do?

sweat - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#219232) #

Is the lessened defensive responsibility one of those myths that is often repeated, or something proven? Of course, if you DH, that takes you out of games too.

China fan - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#219233) #

I would be astonished if the Jays decide to trade Bautista. He's such a natural fit on this team, in many ways. I don't see why the Jays would need to fix his position permanently -- his versatility is a huge advantage and his position-shifting has obviously not hampered his offensive production in any way. The decision about where to play him in 2011 -- outfield or infield -- can be decided later, depending on many other factors: Snider's progress; Wallace's progress; the 3B and 2B situations; potential injuries; etc. In almost any scenario, Bautista will be useful and valuable. Anthopolous would have to be totally blown away by a trade offer in order to give him up.

As for the 4th outfielder: the Jays already have the perfect 4th outfielder, and his name is DeWayne Wise. When I say "perfect", of course, I'm referring to his performance this season, rather than his career numbers. If he regresses to his career norms, he'd be less valuable, but still worth keeping, and maybe a more logical 4th outfielder than Fred Lewis, who seems to require a lot of playing time in order to thrive.

As for the potential surplus in the outfield -- or the infield -- it's probably not a problem worth worrying about. With injuries and slumps and everything else, any assumed surplus is usually a mirage. The Jays have always had this idea of rotating (x+1) players through x slots (DH, 1B, LF etc) as a way of keeping players rested and giving playing time to everyone. It's a fine plan, but somehow they've never needed to do it, because of injuries or demotions or whatever. If there is ever a genuine surplus of excellent positional players, the Jays can revert to that plan -- or do a trade -- but it's unlikely to be a major problem.

If you want a worrisome scenario to fret over, here's what I worry about: a future Jays lineup in 2011 and 2012 that's chock-filled with good players but not enough true stars. Players like Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and maybe Wallace and Arencibia -- good players and difficult to dump (because of their contracts and the memory of their peak seasons or the dream of their high ceilings) yet just not good enough to challenge the Yanks and Rays. The pitching, I think, will continue to be strong in the forseeable future, but those positional players are the worry. Good solid players, yet just not elite enough. This will be the true test of AA -- does he bite the bullet and get rid of a Hill or a Lind if they fail to perform at 2009 levels in 2011 and 2012? This is also the true significance of Hechavarria and Escobar and similar players that Anthopolous might acquire -- he knows that he might need to upgrade the team's talent across the board, even at positions like 2B where the Jays thought they had adequate solutions. "Adequate" just won't cut it. If someone like Hill doesn't bounce back to an elite level, AA has to have elite-potential options such as Hechavarria and Escobar who can be shifted to 2B or 3B. He can never rest on his laurels or assume that someone who hit magnificently in 2009 will always stay at that level.

brent - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#219234) #

From some of GM AA's comments, I think 2013 or 2014 is when the Jays are going to start aiming for more. Maybe even 2015 as scary as it sounds.

Please temper expectations for 2011, folks. The team will probably be going through growing pains with Wallace, JPA, Snider, a young pitching staff, new manager...

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#219235) #

It doesn't seem like an easy thing to evaluate. There haven't been a large number of mid-career third base to OF conversions. Worse yet, sometimes a defensive conversion of this general type is prompted by an injury (Robin Yount would be an example) which might also have some effect on offensive capabilities.

stevieboy22 - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#219236) #

Please temper expectations for 2011, folks. The team will probably be going through growing pains with Wallace, JPA, Snider, a young pitching staff, new manager.

- a young pitching staff: Most of the starters will be entering their 3rd, 4th and 5th years. I don't think growing pains are the issue.

- Snider: I�m not to worried about growing pains post 2010. Seeing as 2011 will be his 4th year with Major League playing time.

- A New Manager: If we have to watch a new manager go through growing pains, then he shouldn�t be the manager.

- Wallace and JPA: I will grant you some growing pains here.

BUT:

Since this team has added Yunel Escobar my expectations have changed.

Since Cecil, Romero, and Morrow have all taken big steps forward I have changed my expectations.

Since Jose Bautista has became one of the games top power hitters my expectations have changed.

Since Vernon has shown he is back my expectations hae changed.

Since this team has been above 500 w/ no contribution from Lind and Hill, who will start hitting again, my expectations have changed.

This team isn�t as far away as some might think. And at the rate AA is bringing in major league talent, who knows.

So I say, temper ON your expectations!

Denoit - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#219237) #

I don't understand why everyone keeps saying Bautista is at "Peak Value". Under the assumption he is going to return to his career normals this is true. But there seems to be alot of opinions out there that this is his new level of play. If they could sign him to an extension at a reasonable price with some club options then I would think his value would only increase if he continued to be a legitimate power threat.

To the question of what to do with the crowded outfeild, with Adam Lind taking practise at 1B they may be planning to move Overbay and have Lind take over at first. This would let Snider DH and you still have your best outfeild with Lewis, Wells, and Bautista. Anthopolous is going to get creative to find a place for everyone. Not much has been leaked but that doesn't mean he doesn't have alot on the go. I think this will be a very different team come Sunday.

stevieboy22 - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#219238) #

I apologize for the massive font size on my post... It was unintentional..

92-93 - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#219239) #

I don't remember who the batter was but the play where Bautista played the ball off the wall and gunned someone down at 2B was an interesting one to watch at the stadium as it developed. It looked to me like Yunel had no intention of covering 2nd, perhaps because he didn't think a play could be made, and that Hill turned around and yelled at him to get over and cover the bag as he ran out to cut the ball off. Bautista threw an off line cannon that still nailed the runner with plenty of time despite the fact it was on the 3rd base side of 2nd and Yunel had to come all the way across the bag. Loved Escobar's white cleats.

As much as I love what JoBau has been up to this season I think it would be insane to turn down a Top 25 prospect for him, unless the brass has intentions of spending a lot more $ on the 2011 team. After seeing the price the Angels paid for Haren I'm left wondering if AA could have swooped in with a more enticing package for the DBacks. Unless it needed quite a bit more, a Marcum for Haren swap could have worked itself out. Extending JoBau and not going after a guy like Haren would have been a mistake.

allcanadian34 - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#219240) #

I do believe that Hill and Lind will get things together. You've started to see it with Lind over the past month or so, but he's still striking out a TON! You make some excellent points about guys coming around, but I just don't see us being at the level of, say, the Yankees ...yet. And there has to be growing pains.

I have concerns about the bullpen next year. Unless Carlson, Accardo, Roenicke, etc can establish/re-establish themselves, it's going to be tough sledding without Downs and, to a degree, Gregg if we lose them. To me, Purcey is the x-factor. If he can turn into a top reliever, that would be HUGE.

But there are more questions... Can Bautista keep up the power numbers? Can Snider come around? Can Wells stay consistent? Will Wallace and JPA transition effectively? Will the rotation keep improving? Big question marks if you ask me.

Bottom line is that I'm extremely excited about the future of this team... more than I have been in 15 years... but I don't know if they'll be ready to compete in the AL EAST in 2011.

Flex - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#219241) #

That's a great insight into the hidden part of the game. On TV you only see the play, not the communication, the hesitations, the decisions that lead up to it.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#219242) #

On Bautista, Lewis, Snider and Encarnacion...

Bautista is "just" 29 this year. He won't turn 30 until October 19th, 2010. He's not like Gonzalez who will be 34 next year. Buatista could be a veteran anchor for the team for 4 to 6 years going forward. Like Scutaro before him he was "labeled" as a back-up for years. Since last September he has been one of the three best mashers in MLB not to mention an above average RFer with an almost exceptional arm. What's not to like? However, PERSONALLY - I'd move him for TWO of what we got for Roy namely two young "first round" type guys like two of Drabek, Wallace and d'Arnaud. If we can't get that level of quality I say keep him and sign him for 3 or 4 years.

Then the question becomes - Would you prefer Snider or Encarnacion? If you say Snider (as I do) then Bautista plays 3rd, Lewis LF, Wells CF, Snider RF. With the young bats Arencibia and Wallace hitting the deck next year, Lind and Hill back on track and a rotation led by Morrow, Romero, Marcum, Cecil and one of many - we will be a contender. Ready to "assume" prime time - no. But definitely, a contender - and sometimes contenders can surprise.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#219243) #

I'd counter that the question is not "Snider or Encranacion?"

Snider is a lock.

the question is "Lewis or Encarnacion?"

Which, in my view, is affected by circumstances beyond the players - to wit, EE is going to give you more at the plate - but lewis can do what EE can't, which is hit at the top of the order.

if we had a second player (besides Esco) to put up there then EE - assuming you can live with his D - trumps Lewis. but we don't which makes that situation much more debateable.

Sano - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#219244) #

Can someone remind me of what Jobau's contract status is? I've heard in the media that he's a FA at the end of this season, but if that's true, I would suspect that he would be shopped much more aggressively by AA.

Returning to the topic at hand, I would say that Jobau should be kept. It doesn't look like he's regressing and his defensive flexibility is a great asset. I feel that once you slot him in at 3B, all the other pieces fall into place, Snider in RF, Lewis in LF, JPA at C, Lind at DH, Wallace at 1B. Makes too much sense to me. Perhaps if EE is still around (and I do think he's got some value to the team when he's performing to a good level) then you convert him to a jack of all trades (3B, 1B, DH, possibly outfield?). I do realize that EE probably does not have the defensive prowess of Jobau and thus this role might not suit him at all.

That or you keep Jobau rotating through RF/3B/DH/1B (as he's proven that he can handle the defensive changes) and leave EE at 3B until someone else takes that job from him. My preference would not be for this option. To contend, I feel like the Jays need to maximize production from as many spots in the order as possible, that means prioritizing Jobau/Snider over EE.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#219245) #

I think the big questions are...
1) who will be solid for the next few years

2) what is the window of opportunity - do they go for it in 2011, 2012, 2013...? I know AA wants a long term plan but what year do you expect to be able to keep up with NYY/Bos/TB?

3) Do you feel OK taking just draft picks for some of the guys here today, or even taking less (depending on next collective bargaining agreement)

IMO anyone 32+ has to be looked at as 'time to trade' (Overbay, Molina, McDonald, Gregg, Camp, Downs, Frasor, Tallet). These guys are extremely unlikely to hold value (even pitchers decline as they get older) thus will be unlikely to be a great help in 2012 if still here but right now could be useful to a contender.

Guys in the 29/30/31 range are the tough choices. These guys are near the end of their peaks, but should have a couple more years near peak thus valuable in 2011/2012. This includes Buck, Lewis, Wells, and Bautista.

Guys in the 26-28 range I'd be holding onto unless a really good offer came in as they are in their prime and will be in it for 2011/2012/2013/2014 which has to be viewed as AA's window as if the Jays are still in 75-85 win land he will be gone before 2015 gets here. This includes Hill, Encarnacion, Lind, Escobar, Marcum, Janssen, Purcey.

Pre-26'ers are the gold rush - you don't dump them unless someone gives you one back. Snider, Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Litsch, Rzepczynski are the guys in this group.

I've been advocating trading Marcum but looking at his age and his quality I'm thinking 'long term deal' might be a better option. In the 28 and under groups (the gang who are most likely to peak during AA's window) you can see the Jays have 2B/3B/SS/RF/DH plus 6 starters and 2 relievers. In AAA we have Wallace (23) & JPA (24) who are supposed to cover 1B/CA leaving only LF/CF wide open (currently covered by guys currently in their peak years) along with a few pen positions.

Y'know, this team is in better shape than I thought. Youth all around, few guys who are past their peak years, with Bautista in his peak years. I'd still trade Bautista as this season doesn't just scream 'peak' is is setting off fireworks and multiple explosions. Yes, he could be doing a Sosa and jumping his level at age 29 (that was Sosa's 66 HR season after a 99 OPS+ season) but I sure wouldn't want to bet the farm on it.

China fan - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#219246) #

....I have concerns about the bullpen next year. Unless Carlson, Accardo, Roenicke, etc can establish/re-establish themselves......

In fact, I suspect that Roenicke, Accardo and Carlson are just about ready to be recalled to the majors, but Anthopolous prefers to keep them down for now, so that he can showcase Frasor, Gregg and Downs for a likely trade. I assume he has very good evaluations of those three relievers at Vegas and he knows that at least one or two of them will be as good as Frasor (at least) in the majors when they are promoted. He is clearly showcasing the Frasor-Gregg-Downs trio, hoping that a desperate contender will give up an elite prospect for one or two of them. The Jays also have other options for the bullpen -- Zep, Mills, even Magnusson or maybe Scott Richmond or Rommie Lewis -- and we could see some of those options in August and September as AA gives a test drive to his potential 2011 bullpen after clearing out the high-priced veterans. (Having said all that, I still would love to see Scott Downs stabilizing a 2011 bullpen, but it seems increasingly clear that there is enough competition for Downs that the Jays will land a good prospect for him.)

Jonny German - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#219247) #

Jose Bautista's career line, including the current totally unprecedented season, is .239 / .334 / .426 for an OPS+ of 100. That's a useful 4th outfielder / backup third baseman. It isn't valuable. Not in the sense that you'd want to build your team around this type of player. Not in the sense that you shoud have to be totally blown away in order to give him up in a trade.

The only thing I can see in his history that lends any credence to what he's doing right now is that there is some evidence that he's a very streaky hitter - he has some extremely good months and some very bad months. For most of his career he hasn't been a full-time player, and maybe he needs to be in order to hit the hot streaks.

"Some evidence"... Jobau's career month by month, skipping months where he had fewer than 50 PA:

		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	May	81	.231	.358	.477	.835
2006	June	90	.250	.322	.588	.910
2006	July	108	.309	.398	.404	.802
2006	August	95	.215	.323	.316	.639
2006	Sept	95	.159	.266	.329	.595
2007	April	95	.293	.316	.435	.751
2007	May	112	.242	.373	.374	.746
2007	June	120	.257	.347	.446	.793
2007	August	137	.261	.350	.471	.821
2007	Sept	115	.232	.330	.374	.704
2008	April	98	.195	.260	.299	.559
2008	May	79	.313	.390	.493	.882
2008	June	90	.282	.352	.526	.878
2008	July	80	.225	.313	.380	.693
2009	May	68	.231	.403	.288	.691
2009	July	58	.220	.286	.320	.606
2009	August	66	.167	.318	.185	.503
2009	Sept	125	.257	.339	.606	.944
2010	April	105	.213	.314	.427	.741
2010	May	116	.287	.422	.766	1.188
2010	June	102	.179	.324	.369	.693
2010	July	92	.298	.359	.655	1.013

That's 5 months with 50 points of his career .760 OPS, 8 months at .810 or better, and 9 months at .710 or worse.

dan gordon - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#219248) #

I hope they keep Bautista. Note that his 3 highest OPS months have come since Sept 09. If I recall correctly that is approx the time when he made the adjustment to try to get his hands started earlier in his swing. His work in the OF looks fine to me, he walks a lot so his OBP is pretty good. I'm not concerned about "what to do with Fred Lewis". He's OK, but if he needs to be moved to the bench to make room for somebody, you do it. Even this year his numbers aren't great for a corner outfielder. I think if you want to compete in the AL East you should be looking for more than a .790ish OPS from your corner OF's (Lewis is .781 career, .798 this year). He's a fine 4th OF, with Bautista and Snider manning the corners. They need to find a 3B, whether it's Encarnacion or somebody else.

Another one of those strange injuries suffered in a celebration yesterday. Chris Coghlan of the Marlins tore the meniscus in his knee while hitting a teammate in the face with a shaving cream pie after the game. Not quite as bad as Kendry Morales, but still...

uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#219251) #

Lind/Snider/Lewis split the 1B/DH/LF duties. IF Wallace starts ripping up AA, then we have a nice problem, where any of these guys becomes a valuable trade chip.

Agreed - even if Bautista takes a big step down next year to "only" a 30hr level, he'll STILL be more valuable then than he is now. Cliff Lee seems to get more valuable with every start he makes, and certainly wasn't at peak value halfway through his late-career breakout season.

If you want a worrisome scenario to fret over, here's what I worry about: a future Jays lineup in 2011 and 2012 that's chock-filled with good players but not enough true stars. Players like Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and maybe Wallace and Arencibia -- good players and difficult to dump (because of their contracts and the memory of their peak seasons or the dream of their high ceilings) yet just not good enough to challenge the Yanks and Rays.

Just out of curiosity - who are the "true star players" on the Rays that the Jays can't match?

John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#219252) #

Thinking ahead, how have the kid starters done vs the beasts of the east? Career numbers.

Cecil...
Red Sox: 7.80 ERA 3 starts
Yankees: 4.91 ERA 4 starts
D-Rays: 4.07 ERA 4 starts 1 relief

Romero...
Red Sox: 8.76 ERA 6 starts
Yankees: 6.91 ERA 5 starts
D-Rays: 2.57 ERA 3 starts

Morrow...
Red Sox: 6.97 ERA 11 games 3 starts
Yankees: 4.03 ERA 10 games 4 starts
D-Rays: 1.99 ERA 7 games 3 starts

Litsch...
Red Sox: 3.83 ERA 7 starts
Yankees: 5.72 ERA 6 starts
D-Rays: 3.89 ERA 6 starts

Interesting. The Yankees/Red Sox tend to be the hardest. Funny given how the Rays have been a thorn in the Jays side since they appeared. None of the big 4 kid starters have had success again all 3, although Litsch is the closest.

Also... Marcum...
Red Sox: 2.91 ERA 13 games 8 starts
Yankees: 6.39 ERA 10 games 8 starts
D-Rays: 3.22 ERA 6 games 5 starts

No big change there from what the kids did although he is the best vs the Red Sox.

So best ERA's...
Red Sox: Marcum 2.91
Yankees: Morrow 4.03
D-Rays: Morrow 1.99

Very interesting to see how well Morrow ranks eh?

uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#219253) #

There's a couple of things I find especially exciting going into next year:

1) Not only do we have at least a solid young-ish talent at every position, but we also have a fairly legit prospect backing up each prospect at the AAA level next year (without even dipping into our younger prospect talent - which might be the most exciting of all).

CF Wells 32 - AAA: Mastroianni 25
RF Bautista 30 - AAA: Loewen 27
LF Lewis 30 - AAA: Thames 24
3B Encarnacion 28 - AAA: Bowman 26
SS Escobar 28 - AAA: Hechevarria 22
2B Hill 29 - AAA: Emaus 25
1B Lind 27 - AAA: Wallace 24
C Arencibia 25 - AAA: Jeroloman 26

All of those potential AAA guys next year or actually guys with some real prospect status, IMO.

2) The depth of quality starting arms that should allow us to use some in the bullpen:

SP Romero 26
SP Marcum 29
SP Cecil 24
SP Morrow 26
SP Litsch 26
SP Rzepczynski 25
SP Mills 26
SP Drabek 23
SP Stewart 24

That's at least 9 legitametly talented young players who should all be competing for a MLB spot at some point next year. Barring a bad injury situation, that should leave 2-3 very nice arms there to boost our bullpen (Purcey 29, Roenicke 28, Carlson 30, Accardo 30, Lewis 28, Magnusson 26).

3) Maybe most important - that squad right there is dirt cheap. dirt cheap. Lots and lots of payoll available to play with.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#219254) #

ah crap. missed one:

DH T.Snider 22 - AAA: Cooper 24

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#219255) #

I think we can irrefutably say that the Jays can't match Soriano, Crawford, and Longoria as far as talent from the Rays. Those are elite guys that we don't have an equivalent to (particularly Longoria who does it at a premium position). You could make a case for Upton, Pena, and the starting pitching as well, but lets assume we can compete with that. We're improving, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. We still need Snider, Arencibia, or Wallace to reach the perennial all star status that Crawford and Longoria have before we can truly compete.

Put me down as in favour of a long-term extension for Bautista. If we can lock him up for say 7 million its a good risk-reward deal. The worst case scenario is still not a Wells level albatross, and he's versatile enough to play all 4 corners. The best case scenario is he continues to perform and he becomes the type of contract that allows you to add Haren/Lee mid-season. Plus, in my opinion, rewarding your players for their performance has value in and of itself.

Realistically there's no way that Bautista, EE, Lind, Wallace, Lewis, and Snider all play 140+ games at the major league level next season so I don't see why we can't bring them all back and sort it out later. That'd be alot of depth at key offensive positions.

MatO - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#219256) #

As far as i can tell, Soriano, Crawford and Pena are FA after this season (not that Pena has been particularly good this year). Nobody seems to notice how bad Upton has been for what is now approaching 2 full seasons. They're very suspect in the hitting department. The pitching is fabulous though.

Kasi - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#219257) #

Longoria is obvious. Price is obvious. No one else really. Funny enough we had someone as good as Crawford, but let him go for nothing after one bad year. Soriano is good, but a closer isn't as important plus they got him off the FA market. It wasn't so long ago we did the same with BJ Ryan.

christaylor - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#219258) #

Crawford, Soriano, and Pena are free agents in 11 and the Rays have shown no indication to spend, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if all three walked next year. Upton has been bad offensively for two years.

No doubt Longoria is a star, and locked up for cheap, but it isn't clear to me that the Rays talent level, even their star talent will be better than the best players on the Jays over the next few years, especially if Hill/Lind rebound, Snider breaks out or Bautista productivity doesn't nose-dive.

Wilner discussed a Bautista extension the other day and made the good point that if you're Bautista, you might not want to sign an extension. Bautista gets a (probably big) raise in arb this year and he might make the calculated risk that he can carry this level of production to FA in a year. If he signs a 3-4 year deal, he forgoes his one chance at a big pay-day. He might value the security over the risk that he gets hurt or his production drops off but... the upside for him not signing long-term will be awfully tempting.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#219259) #

The big things with the Rays are the ownership wanting to slash payroll next year by up to $20 million, and the fact they never seem to suffer major injuries.

All they are committed to is $17 mil in 2011, less going forward (via Cot's of course). Free agents are Pena (1B), Crawford (LF), Soriano (closer), Balfour (setup), and Choate (LOOGY). After 2011 they have Bartlett (SS), Navarro (CA backup), Cormier (pen) and Kapler (backup OF) going into free agency.

Boy, looks like the Rays are in an all or nothing year depending on quality of prospects - can they step in and replace that gang? The biggest key for the Rays is that killer rotation both staying effective (2 have ERA+'s in the 140's, worst is 87 by Shields) and healthy (not one missed start).

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#219261) #

That's a fine post, Jonny. The other point in favour of the sustainability of an increased performance level from Bautista is the Hit Tracker data. He leads the majors in no-doubt homers with 10, and has more no-doubters than just enoughs.

You are right that we should not expect a 146 OPS+ from Bautista for the rest of this year or for 2011. I do think that however that a mid-point performance between his pre-Sep 09 and post-Sep 09 levels is a reasonable expectation.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#219262) #

Rios? Having his best year yet at 311/360/511 129 OPS+. However, Crawford is a year younger and hitting 311/367/510 133 OPS+ and is a free agent after this year. So if the Jays like him they could go get him if someone else doesn't. I wouldn't as he is having his best season ever and never cracked 120 OPS+ before and is at a prime age for career seasons (as is Rios).

Of course, if someone would take Wells contract off the Jays hands then Crawford gets a lot more tempting.

bpoz - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#219263) #

I think if Lind & Hill can be this bad for a half season then anyone can have a bad season. The bad of Hill & Lind is balanced by great seasons based on the histories for Wells,Bautista,A Gon & Buck.
IMO Hill/Lind is like Wells/Rios in 2009. But then the 2009 Scutoro/Hill/Lind did balance the 2009 Wells/Rios. So I think each year we will get unanticipated positives and negatives offensively. And the negative of injuries.
I don't know a solution for individual players having horrible years. Our farm may be able to cover injuries in the future since the farm is getting rich.
Two positives I see are for 2010,11,12,13 and maybe longer, compared to the past 5 years is that IMO the 5 man SP is deeper and a few positions are also better like Snider, JPA & 1st base. For SS Escobar I also like but it will be hard to get 5 full years of what A Gon & Scutoro gave us for 1.5 years offensively.
So the consistent 96 win team AA wants would have to be a 92-93 win team that gets 3-5 more wins when things break right and 3+ losses when things go badly.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#219267) #

I think Aaron Hill's 2009 season was a much bigger fluke/anomaly than Bautista's 2010 season.

Scouts in the house tonight? So far, according to the sign-in sheet, Bob Melvin (Mets).

uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#219268) #

I think we can irrefutably say that the Jays can't match Soriano, Crawford, and Longoria as far as talent from the Rays.

Irrefutably?

A left fielder with a career 105ops+ (and a career best 117ops+)? A reliever they picked up in exchange for Iwamura? An admittedly good third baseman that still wouldn't be leading our team in hitting this year, and wouldn't have last year (and whose defense is already showing a steady decline as his body matures)?

If these are the "true stars" that we have to worry about matching....well, hell, I think we might be even closer than we think.

Sano - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#219269) #

There's a scout sign-in sheet!?

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#219270) #

I guess the Mets might be interested in Downs and Buck.

Hill's 2009 was a bit anomalous, but not that much. If you compare it with his 2007 (he was pretty unlucky that year-Joey Gathright thefts counted as bad luck), he hit 10 more doubles and 2 more triples in 2007 as compared with 2009 but 19 fewer homers in 77 fewer PAs. His XBH rate didn't really change, but some of the doubles became homers. He isn't likely to hit 36 homers again, but he will probably hit 25 and may even hit 30 again.

Jonny German - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#219272) #

How so Magpie? I look at Aaron Hill's history and I see a guy with a standout college career, a very good (and short) minor league career, 2 seasons of settling in to the majors followed by a major step forward. Then a slow start to his age 26 season before injury ended it, then the career year at age 27. He may have exceeded expectations, but there was plenty of evidence before 2009 that he was a significant talent.

Bautista not so much. The "streaky hitter who needs to play regularly" theory I came up with above was an attempt to be generous, I really don't see anything else in his history to indicate that this year is anything but a fluke/anomaly.

Dewey - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#219273) #

Sano - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#219269) # There's a scout sign-in sheet!?

Yes, at Rogers Centre, where Magpie works (for Stats, Inc.) when the Jays are at home. I'm assuming you didn't know that. If you did, my apologies.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#219276) #

Went out for a smoke, checked the sheet again on my way back in. Dave Hollins (Phillies) is here as well.

After reading the Game Notes... One of the truly striking differences between the Cito Gaston Jays and the John Gibbons era is how the team has stopped hitting into a zillion DPs. This year's team has hit into just 69 GDPs in 100 games (they've turned the trick on the opposition 88 times.)

The classic methods of avoiding the GDP are stealing bases and sacrificing, but the Jays don't do much of either.A lot of it is simply personnel - Adam Lind, Fred Lewis, and Jose Bautista all strike out a lot. But what's truly remarkable is Lyle Overbay, who has into just 6 GDPs this season. He also hit into just 8 GDPs last season. He hit into 55 in his first 3 years as a Jay. Overbay has also struck out 86 times in 99 games and has a good chance to set a new career high (he fanned 128 times back in 2004.)

Go figure.

Match-ups to watch tonight: Millwood owns Adam Lind (0-13) and Vernon Wells (4-25). Jose Bautista (4-9, 2 HR) and John Buck (8-21) are happy to see hm...

uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#219277) #

and hey, why not have some fun comparing the starters?

admitting, of course, that the Rays' starters have way more Ability to Stay Healthy, than ours do. Seriously - they haven't missed even one start for 2 seasons now. That's crazy. They kick our but in Health Talent.

Career as Starter:

S.Marcum (28, 3rd rnd '03): 480.2ip, 7.0k/9, 2.5k/bb, 1.24whip, 3.73era
J.Niemann (27, #4 ovll '04): 315.1ip, 6.4k/9, 2.2k/bb, 1.27whip, 3.54era

R.Romero (25, #6 ovll '05): 308.1ip, 7.5k/9, 2.0k/bb, 1.43whip, 3.97era
D.Price (24, #1 ovll '07): 261.0ip, 7.3k/9, 2.0k/bb, 1.29whip, 3.62era

J.Litsch (25, 24th rnd '04): 335.2ip, 4.5k/9, 1.9k/bb, 1.31whip, 4.02era
M.Garza (26, 1st rnd '05): 641.0ip, 7.2k/9, 2.2k/bb, 1.32whip, 4.04era

B.Morrow (25, #5 ovll '06): 192.1ip, 9.2k/9, 1.9k/bb, 1.45whip, 4.52era
J.Shields (28, 16th rnd '00): 902.0ip, 7.3k/9, 3.7k/bb, 1.25whip, 4.14era

B.Cecil (23, 1st rnd '07): 199.0ip, 6.5k/9, 2.1k/bb, 1.39whip, 4.57era
J.Hellickson (23, 4th rnd '05): AAA: 172.0ip, 9.6k/9, 4.9k/bb, 1.17whip, 2.51era

M.Rzepczynski (24, 5th rnd '07): 71.2ip, 8.8k/9, 2.2k/bb, 1.40whip, 4.27era
W.Davis (24, 3rd rnd '04): 144.2ip, 6.5k/9, 1.8k/bb, 1.38whip, 4.17era

K.Drabek (22, 1st rnd '06): AA: 220.1ip, 7.0k/9, 2.1k/bb, 1.25whip, 3.43era
J.McGee (23, 5th rnd '04): AA: 177.2ip, 9.4k/9, 2.3k/bb, 1.35whip, 4.00era

Spifficus - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#219278) #

A left fielder with a career 105ops+ (and a career best 117ops+)? A reliever they picked up in exchange for Iwamura? An admittedly good third baseman that still wouldn't be leading our team in hitting this year, and wouldn't have last year (and whose defense is already showing a steady decline as his body matures)?

Are you just trying to show that anything can be spun, or do you actually believe that these three aren't significantly better than what the Jays currently have to offer? Not that it matters at this point, since odds are only one of them will be with the Rays next year...

uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#219279) #

I think Crawford might be the most overrated player in baseball, if he's considered a "true star". His career best ops is .830, for pete's sake.

I would also be tremendously dissappointed if Snider wasn't as good as Longoria at the plate very soon. Longoria is good, but he wasn't near as good at the plate as Lind last year. or near as good at the plate as Bautista this year - let alone near the MVP calibre "true star" bats out there.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#219280) #

Up to this point, Hill and Bautista (the elder of the two by 18 months) have been more or less equivalent as offensive players - Hill's career OPS+ of 99, Bautista of 100. I think Bautista's 2010 power surge is less of a fluke than Hill's because he normally has considerably more HR power than Hill. If you eliminate their "anomalous" seasons (2009 for Hill, 2010 for Bautista), Hill has 42 HRs in 2255 PApps, Bautista has 59 HRs in just 1863 PApps. I think Bautista's twisted career path to this point (two hand injuries, a lost year as a Rule 5 pick, the misfortune of working for the Pirates) slowed his development, and are very good reasons to believe he is a legitimate late bloomer.

And I'm just not a big Aaron Hill fan. EVen when he's playing well, he just makes so many damned outs...

Spifficus - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#219281) #

Just to clarify, I didn't mean my previous post to sound snippy, though on second-read it could easily come across that way.

Anyhow, on Crawford it seems like you're leaving out half the player when you site OPS (which he is still above average), while ignoring defense and baserunning. Whether by scouting or UZR or any other metric on the planet, his fielding is other-worldly. Left fielders aren't supposed to make as much of a difference with the glove as he does; it's freakish, and by WAR is responsible for more than a third of his value annually.

As for Soriano, that's kind of like saying Bautista isn't really all that hot at the moment because he was acquired for Robinson Diaz. It doesn't really seem relevant that the Braves got Maddux'd. He is what he is - a reliever who, when the bubble gum keeps the arm attached, is anywhere from very good to nasty-nasty.

On Longoria, is this from his UZR, or is this based on something else? If it's UZR, that stat fluctuates a LOT from year to year, and it still has him as noticably above average. Combined that with a bat that is still at the top for 3B (well, with Beltre and Zimmerman), and he's the premiere 3B in the league.

Either Crawford or Longoria would be our best position player significantly, and Soriano would instantly become the closer, and Gaston's BFF with antacid to settle things in the 9th.

Kelekin - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#219282) #

Statement 1: I think we can irrefutably say that the Jays can't match Soriano, Crawford, and Longoria as far as talent from the Rays.
Statement 2: A left fielder with a career 105ops+ (and a career best 117ops+)? A reliever they picked up in exchange for Iwamura? An admittedly good third baseman that still wouldn't be leading our team in hitting this year, and wouldn't have last year (and whose defense is already showing a steady decline as his body matures)?

I figured we could actually get some evidence on these two claims since a single statistic was used between the two players and these both appear to be unfounded opinions.

NOTE: Jose Bautista who has had a good season can not be used for comparison's sakes. For career comparisons, he won't stand up to anyone unfortunately. We are going to use the best proven comparisons. Also, I will not be discussing defensive metrics, because I believe there is huge faults in all defensive metrics currently and until it is fixed, I don't believe they're effective.

First, on Soriano, he was not traded for Iwamura. This is the first incorrect claim. He was traded for Jesse Chavez.
Soriano (2010) - 1.91 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9
Soriano (Career) - 2.82 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 9.7 K/9

Closest Jays Comp:

Scott Downs. The reason for Downs being the comp is that he is the best statistical reliever on our team.

Downs (2010) - 2.41 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 7.2 K/9
Downs (Career, RP) - 2.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 7.7 K/9

While it is safe to say Downs has been a solid reliever, he only became a solid reliever at the age of 29. Soriano has been effective year in and year out and is five years younger than Downs. While Soriano's career RP as a reliever is a tiny bit higher, it's almost unfounded when you consider his WHIP is a full 0.20 lower than Downs. Point: Soriano

Secondly, we move on to Carl Crawford. While I'm sure one statistic means so much, let's look at the big picture.

Crawford (2010) - .311/.367/.510/.876, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 25 NSB, 32 BB:63 K
Crawford (Career 162G AVG) - .296/.337/.443/.780, 13 HR, 77 RBI, 43 NSB, 38 BB:100 K

While Crawford's BA and OBP have slightly improved through the years, he is still not the best OBP hitte in the league. He hits for more power than most leadoff hitters, but what's most important with Crawford is the fact that in his career, he's been in scoring position an extra 307 or so times. There is clearly some overrating being done when it comes to Crawford, but what he brings to the table on top of that is the huge speed element.

Sadly, the best comparison to Crawford is Vernon Wells. Wells obviously hits for more power but isn't as fast, but they both became successful major leaguers around the same time.

Wells (2010) - .271/.322/.518/.839, 20 HR, 53 RBI, 2 NSB, 27 BB:60 K
Wells (Career 162G AVG) - .280/.329/.473/.802, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 8 NSB, 47 BB:90 K

It is safe to say that Wells will always hit for more power than Crawford, even if his 2007/09 seasons give us any doubt. While power is important, Crawford manages to hit for a slightly higher OBP and due to the doubles and triples, does not slug that much less than Wells. Wells on average has hit twice as many home runs per year (even with the dropoff), yet only averages 17 more RBIs than a leadoff hitter. His plate discipline is marginally better than Crawford's, although both players leave a lot on the table. Crawford's main x-factor is that he manages to get himself into scoring position way more offen, generating more runs for his team. We can all agree they're both decent fielders. On a personal level, while I believe Crawford is the better player (and 3 years younger) and I rather have his added dimension on our team, statistically, these players are not that far off. Winner: Tie

The third and final comparison would be Evan Longoria. He's the hardest to find a good comparison for on our team, but let's try our best.

Longoria (2010) - .293/.382/.501/.883, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 11 NSB, 52 BB: 80 K
Longoria (Career 162G AVG) - .281/.362/.521/.883, 32 HR, 114 RBI, 12 NSB, 73 BB: 148 K

Longoria is obviously talented. He's only 24, and his walks have been up and strikeouts have been down this year, while his power hasn't quite been there (although still a very high number of doubles).

This comparison is tough. Looking through every Jay, it's impossible to do a 3B comparison. The closest comparison from an offensive perspective and age as well as service time is Adam Lind. And yes, I know Lind is having a terrible 2010, so bare with me.

Lind (2010) - .222/.279/.384/.662, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 0 NSB, 29 BB: 99 K
Lind (Career) - .272/.325/.470/.795, 26 HR, 93 RBI, 0 NSB, 45 BB: 126 K

As we all know, Lind is having a terrible year. Last year, he had 81 extra-base hits. While I don't believe Lind will continue that pace, I've liked him from the moment he started playing in the minors. Realistically, maybe he's a 25-30 HR guy and 90+ RBI. Maybe he finally rounds out 50-60 walks and 120 strikeouts. Those aren't bad numbers by any means. But then you have to compare. Longoria has been steady and excellent in all three of his seasons. Not only that, but he plays a premium position instead of DHing. He isn't a liability on the basepaths, as he has only been caught 3 times in 33 attempts. Winner: Longoria

So in the end, as much as I love my Jays, the Rays have been developing way more talent. We've had some excellent performances this year from out of nowhere such as Bautista. We now have an above-average starting shortstop. We do have good players, but the Rays have superstars. If our farm system catches up to theirs - then we'll have some interesting years to come.

Moe - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#219283) #

Actually, the GDP numbers are not that crazy different from the past:

year, PA w/ 1st, lt 2out, GDP, ratio, OBP
2006, 1171 , 166, 14.1%, .348
2007, 1137 , 127, 11.1%, .327
2008, 1227 , 150, 12.2%, .331
2009, 1222 , 130, 10.6%, .333
2010, 586 , 69, 11.8%, .310

So, 2006 and 2008 were a particularly bad years because it happened so often and that's why it is is stuck in our memory. But really in relative terms, this year is not much better. I would say 2006 looks like the real outlier.

This year just appears that much better because there are much fewer chances. If you prorate the 2010 numbers to a full season it looks like this:
949 PA w/ 1st, lt 2out, 112 GDP

Really this happens because the Jays never have any base runners and I'm not sure this is a good thing. But this has been discussed to death.

And for our friend Lyle:
06: 15.6%
07: 15.4%
08: 17.1%
09: 8.2%
10: 9.2%

Here you really see a difference!

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#219284) #

bare with me.

I wish I had said that.

Jonny German - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#219285) #

<i>I think Bautista's twisted career path to this point (two hand injuries, a lost year as a Rule 5 pick, the misfortune of working for the Pirates) slowed his development, and are very good reasons to believe he is a legitimate late bloomer. </i>

Right on. That Rule 5 year was truly ridiculous - 3 teams gave him 12, 15, and 26 plate appearances before he found his way back to Pittsburgh. Who didn't send him to the minors, but instead gave him 43 PA over the final 2 months. Maybe they didn't understand how Rule 5 works...

Kelekin - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#219287) #

Magpie: WINKINGFACE

uglyone - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#219288) #

Great post, Kelekin, and a few quick responses:

The Rays traded Iwamura for Chavez a month earlier, and then swapped Chaves for Soriano. So I just said Iwamura for Soriano because in effect that's what it was. (A sweet trade by the rays, of course). The larger point was that it didn't cost the Rays much to pick up Soriano, in assets or in cash, and there are relievers of this ilk available all the time for a similar price. I agree 100% that Soriano is better than Downs, no doubt, but that's not really the most important thing - it wasn't hard for the Rays to get Soriano, and we've been able to get ourselves Sorianos before.
Crawford(.347wOBA) v. Wells (.345wOBA) is a fair comparison overall, but an awkward one because Crawford has been consistently good while Wells has alternated between great and awful. (and Spifficus - great defensive ability in LF is IMO like being the best looking kid at band camp).
As for Longoria, there's no doubt career wise he's been consistently better than any single one of our current players. That being said - he hasn't been so good that we haven't been able to have a comparable or better player than him every year so far, even if it's been a different guy every year. He hasn't exactly shown that he's this incomparable MVP type bat - hell, he's been hard pressed to even crack the AL top-10 in any season yet. And besides, Lind's not the guy I compare to Longoria (Lind get's the Pena comp imo), Snider's the guy I compare to Longoria. I'd be very, very dissapointed if Snider isn't at least giving us Longo's consistent .880ops level of performance very soon (and it's too bad he got injured, because he was just getting hot and starting to dominate this year at age 22, exactly like Longo did 3 years ago at the same age).

And while they're wildly undependable, let's not forget that Lind was very close to a top-5 hitter in the AL last year, and Jose is damn close to that right now this year. Longoria has yet to approach that level.

I'm not saying our youngsters have proven themselves quite yet - I just don't see the Rays as owning these untouchable superstars that prevents us from even considering ourselves comparable with them going forward.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#219290) #

The wave? I thought 80s Night was last night....

Kelekin - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#219292) #

Uglyone:

Thanks for the response. I missed the Iwamura for Chavez thing, so that comment makes a lot more sense now. And as for Crawford vs. Wells, that's exactly what I was trying to say - Crawford is consistent, and he adds a huge amount of speed. If I had to choose someone to be on my team, it'd be Crawford over Wells any day. As far as Lind/Pena goes, I do understand the comp from a positional standpoint, but we had to go from a talent standpoint. It's hard to compare Lind to Pena since Pena has been around for so long, where as Lind and Longoria have had about the same amount of MLB time. If you had to ask me if I wanted Lind or Longoria, I would still say Longoria. The fact that he has been extremely consistent between the years of 22-24 at what is currently a premium position, does indeed make him the best 3B in the league. As a rookie, for all intensive purposes he was the 2nd best 3B in the AL (behind A-Rod). Behind him was, sadly, Mora. In 2009, he led AL third basemen in HR, Runs, RBI, Doubles, T-3 in BB, T-3 in BB:K, 4th in OPS, T-1 in ISO, but 4th in wOBA (these stats had Youk as a 3b). He wasn't the best in every category, but he certainly was the most powerful. This year, he's 2nd in roughly everything among 3B (if you consider Bautista an RF which we should).

All in all, I thnk you are right, there is some over-rating in Longoria thus far, but he is a 24 year old who has a career OPS near .900 and is of course, projected to get better in his peak years. So if you ask me if I would want Lind, who can DH and -maybe- play an adequate 1B, versus Longoria, who is a top-tier third basemen, I still take Longoria. You do have to consider the insane premium on 3B again. There are only five third basemen with an OPS above .800, four if you don't count Bautista: Beltre, Young, Longoria, Rodriguez.

And I do agree that Snider will be a star, but I've had one issue with him his entire career and it's ability to stay healthy. I really do worry about his durability, as I'm pretty sure he's been on the DL at some point in every season. If he stays healthy, he'll be a stud, but I'm not sure if he should be in the outfield long-term.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#219293) #

I like Jose a lot, am thrilled with the season he's having and really hope he can hang on to win the home run crown. But the odds of him carrying on this kind of performance beyond 2010 are very low. He's 29 years old and has never had a season remotely like this one.

Counter point:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/penaca01.shtml

Yes, he'd peaked at higher levels than JB before his age 29 season - but that season was still so very far above his previous norms that it serves the purpose.

And yes, before anyone says it, I'd agree that the time spent at the top of the curve is likely to be short - but not necesarily only one year.

I think if you want to compete in the AL East you should be looking for more than a .790ish OPS from your corner OF's (Lewis is .781 career, .798 this year).

And his OPS+ is 116

Over the last three seasons, the Rays RF (as listed in B-R) has the following OPS and OPS+

2010: .756 - 104
2009: .681 - 79
2008: .767 - 101

And LF:

2010: .876 - 133
2009: .816 - 113
2008: .718 - 89

Admitting that Crawford has game-changing speed (and knows how to use it) - i still don't think your statement hold up as an absolute.

That's not to say I'm a Lewis fanboy - but I think we are getting a bit too carried away with this recent proposition that you need an elite player at every position to compete in the AL East.

If I wanted to, I could go back a decade and show you teams that won or were competitive in this division with more than one "ordinary" (or worse) player in the everyday lineup.

Gerry - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#219294) #

Jose Bautista is probably the most accurate thrower from right field that I have ever seen.

Spifficus - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#219295) #

great defensive ability in LF is IMO like being the best looking kid at band camp

If you view Crawford's defense in left as that well, that's like saying Kate Beckinsale's a kid, and sending her to band camp. Now would be an (in)appropriate time for a Megan's Law joke...

You seem to be tunnel-visioning on an "MVP-type" bat, even though there's so much more to a player than the lumber. Both have shown themselves to be stellar defensively at their positions, as well as above average (Crawford) or a top (Longoria) bat for their position. That their performance has been dependable for a while is another significant point in their favor, as is the bonus of Longoria's age, which should at least leave many more seasons of stellar quality in front of him. He's reminding me a lot of an in-prime Rolen, actually, in terms of his skill spread and performance.

Put another way, per WAR, Crawford's been a consistant 5 win player, and Longoria's been a consistent 6-7 win player... Bautista, in his career year might get to 5, and the next best performance is the now-departed Gonzalez. Toronto hasn't had a player get to 6 WAR for as far back as fangraph's WAR data goes back (2002).

Kelekin - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#219296) #

scottt - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#219298) #

Actually, I don't think anybody will offer much for Bautista because he's not considered a true elite player. He wasn't even invited to the Homerun Derby remember? It's selling high only if you get the return.

Now, if Bautista can complete the year with this level of performance, his value increase tremendously because even teams that are currently out of it could bet on him. If he maintains this level through half of 2011, the view will have changed and he could bring much more in a trade.

I don't see much risk in keeping him. The homeruns might come down next year, but as long as the walks are still there, he's a fine 3rd hitter.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#219299) #

Unreal game for Bautista.

There's a story in today's New York Post that says the Red Sox and Yankees are leading the pack in the bidding war for Downs. Of course, that could all change if another team steps up its offer. But it makes sense for those two teams to be keenly interested in him, because (1) he's arguably the best reliever available, (2) he has proven that he can compete in the AL East, and (3) if he walks at the end of the season, Boston and NY have the resources to take advantage of the draft picks they would receive in return.

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/bombers_bosox_eye_jays_lefty_vbFyNmpMnf0NmXvvpvgTgK#ixzz0usseWvbs

TamRa - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#219300) #

So in the end, as much as I love my Jays, the Rays have been developing way more talent.

Another oft-repeated claim. I simply don't think it holds up. saying (rightly) that Longoria is considerably better than current comps is reasonable but Longoria alone doesn't prove that claim - that's a one-off gold mine from a top-5 pick (which, ya know, are SUPPOSED to be stars.

As someone said above, there's every likelihood that snider will end up his equal or better very soon.

I've made this case before, apparently to none effect, but if you look at the two teams' lineups, the claim you made doesn't hold up:

Catcher: Jaso is just an average guy, not to disrespect him but he's not a head-turner. Jays haven't developed a guy all the way to the majors in a long time but would you rather have Jaso than any of JPA, d'Arnaud, Perez, or Jimenez?

1B - both are free agent signings

2B - Hill or Sean rodriguez? (nort that the Rays developed rodriguez)

SS - both acquired from other teams - and our guy is better

3B - I won't try to beat Longoria

RF - Zobrist v. Bautista? Lots of similarities, including that both were not developed by their current team

CF - Wells v. Upton? upon still has the upside but he hasn't passed Wells yet on the career

LF - Crawford has the advantage of having been developed by the team, while Lewis wasn't - but if you count snider here, i think most would agree Snider is going to contribute a lot more to the jays than Crawford has to the Rays over his career, assuming health

DH Lind v. ? whoever you put here for the Rays, it's not a guy they developed....so that brings us back around to comparing longoria to Lind. Longoria is better, of course, because of the defensive contribution - but the difference to this point isn't MASSIVE - and even if it is, one big win doesn't justify "way more talent"

uglyone has already run-down the pitching comparison and again, "way more" doesn't apply.

As for a direct comparison of offenses (as measured by OPS+):

jays win at catcher
they tie at 1B
Rays edge at 2B but almost everyone would agree Hill is considerably better
Jays win at short
Rays at third (assuming you count EE and not JB here)
Jays in both right and center
Rays in left
DH is like 2B

Rays overall OPS+ is 100, Jays is 106

One other point about the pitching - not one important pitcher in the Rays pen was developed internally, so to the extent they have an edge AT ALL (besides Longoria) it is only to the extent that Price/Niemann/Sheids/Davis is better than Romero/Marcum/Cecil/Litsch (or Zep if you prefer)

Again (I'm repeating myself right?) not "way more" in any case.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#219301) #

@WillRain: I am absolutely having a blast watching Bautista - he hit his 30th HR as I was in the middle of writing this. But, if there ever was a sell high player, let's be honest - he'd be it. I think the only issue I have with your comp is that even in Pena's bad years where he couldn't latch on with a team, he averaged a .790 OPS and always hit for power. Bautista's highest OPS prior to the season was .757, which Pena has never been below outside of this year.

I don't disagree EXCEPT in two respects:

1. EVERY talent evaluator for any other team will START with the same baseline you just quoted to me. they will all start with the assumption that this year is a massive outlier and only deviate from that if scouting tells them to. so if you break that down:

a. their scouts say "this is the new normal" in which case we should keep him (assuming our scouts agree)

b. Scouts say "it's a fluke" in which case you can't actually sell high after all

the only way we win out is if their scouts say "new normal" and our scouts say "fluke" and ours are right.

2. while I personally am not a member of the BAS and an pretty sure that he'll do next year much what Zobrist is doing this year (not in specific numbers but in terms of drop off) - he does share with Zobrist an important value, and that is the defensive flexibility. given the particular needs of the Jays over the next few years, in terms of line-up construction and the question of 3B...i can see his having enough value to the team that they shouldn't assume he HAS to stay at this level to be important to the team.

All that said, OF COURSE if we were offered Mike Moustakas or Dominic Brown or some such for him you do that. but if "sell high" means only that you get a player like Eric Thames instead of a player like Mike McDade....then there are other considerations, IMO.

Kelekin - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#219302) #

WillRain: Saying the Rays develop more talent isn't exactly something I've come with it..it's been said by BaseballAmerica pretty much every year. Let alone pretty much any other publication you can think of. I think my only issue with your comparison is that in one category you're choosing a winner by OPS, but in another category you're using our prospects versus their major leaguers. We can't use potential to prove a point. The argument would be "would you prefer Jaso or Buck?" for example, because otherwise we'd then have to start arguing other prospects. We could go "Wells vs. Jennings" or "Lewis vs. Jennings" for example, etc. I just don't like to deal with what ifs against statistics. I think it'd be cool if we were to do a Tampa Bay versus Toronto argument on the premise of our farm systems, because no matter how much we argue Toronto vs. Tampa at the MLB level, one of these teams is in the wild card and one is not.

Kelekin - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#219303) #

@WillRain: I certainly am in the same boat. I'm not saying Bautista can't put up decent numbers for a couple years, I was simply stating that the comp to Pena wasn't quite there. Also, I'm not really sure on what "scouts". Are these the same scouts that said Gary Matthews Jr. deserved a 5 year contract? I hope not! But if we were to sign Bautista for a couple years, and can prform well enough, then he increases his trade value dramatically as someone else stated.

China fan - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#219304) #

Since I'm the one who sparked the debate over the Jays vs Rays and the "elite" players on both sides, I just want to clarify something: I never argued that the Jays need to have superstars at every position. And if the Jays pitching is strong enough, they don't even have to have the strongest offense in the league. Obviously the Jays can have a few weak links and still be a contender. My concern is simply that the Jays have too many "good" players and not enough "great" players.

Consider the lineup as it is currently constituted. There are no obvious sinkholes anywhere. If you judge the hitters by their performance over the past few weeks, or even by their season totals (with the exception of Hill and Lind), they are all pretty good -- and even Lind and Hill can be considered "good enough" if you judge them by 2009. Yet this lineup is clearly failing to compete with the elite of the AL East. There are just not enough "great" players in the lineup.

Put it another way: the Jays have a team OPS of .763 while the Yanks and Red Sox are both at almost exactly .800. (The Rays have a lower OPS but their pitching is so good that the Jays need to be MUCH superior to the Rays on offense if they hope to overtake them.) Somehow the Jays need to boost their team OPS by 40 or 50 points to be competitive with the Yanks and Sox. Since it's unlikely that every player will improve by 50 points, the Jays need several players who are 100 points better than their counterparts in the current lineup. In other words, the Jays need a few more "great" players. You can argue about the exact number, but the Jays don't have enough greatness.

How to do this? Ideally, players like Lind and Hill will return to their 2009 levels, which could add 100 points to their OPS levels. That would add two "great" players to the current lineup. Escobar, over a full season, could be 100 points better than Gonzalez. Where else? Could Wallace be 100 points better than Overbay? Maybe. Could Arencibia be 100 points better than Buck? Unlikely, but conceivable at some point. Anyway, this gives some sense of what the Jays need, in my view. It's not enough to compare them to the Rays -- and I shouldn't have mentioned the Rays in my original post. Unless the Jays pitching somehow improves from "excellent" to "phenomenal", the Jays need to challenge the Yanks and Sox on OPS, and it will take a significant upgrade.

Gerry - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#219305) #

It has been confirmed that Brad Mills will start tomorrow. It will be good to see the 2010 Mills up against the Orioles.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#219306) #

Even if we're not counting this season, Bautista has averaged almost exactly 20 HRs per 600 plate appearances. I don't expect him to hit 40 HRs every year, because hardly anyone does that anyway. But I don't think it's unreasonable in the slightest to expect him to hit 25-35, which along with the walks and the defense and the versatility makes him a hell of a guy to have around.

Some nice defense tonight - Escobar's circus play at short, of course; a very fine running catch by Wells in deep right-centre; Bautista's throw (and Encarnacion coming up off the bag to play the ball and still making the tag.)

Escobar is fun to watch - he's a bit of a hyperactive kid out there. Most infielders relax completely between pitches, and stand around being as casual as possible. It's a strain, after all - there's going to be 140 or so pitches every night, and you have to prepare yourself for the possibility of fielding a hard shot right at your face each and every time. But Escobar bounces around, fiddles with his glove, looks around.... he's different!

And it's always lots of fun to watch Ricky Romero. He doesn't field his position quite as well as Marcum, but he's good - a big quick powerful cat leaping and prowling around out there. And his foot speed also impresses me. I was struck in last night's game by David Purcey easily making it over to first base to cover the bag - it's not a play our LH pitchers have been in the habit of making. Tallet's delivery leaves him hopelessly out of position, and Downs is kind of a klutz out there. Purcey's not all that quick, but his delivery leaves him in fine fielding position, and he hustles.

But Romero is fast, man. I'd like to see him go first to third sometime. Of course, Cito Gaston would never, never, never risk using a pitcher as a pinch-runner. Maybe next year...

Magpie - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#219307) #

Match-ups to watch tonight: Millwood owns Adam Lind (0-13) and Vernon Wells (4-25). Jose Bautista (4-9, 2 HR) and John Buck (8-21) are happy to see him...

That worked out pretty well!

Spifficus - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#219308) #

Unless the Jays pitching somehow improves from "excellent" to "phenomenal"

Actually, the Rays are a bit worse than the Jays in FIP, so it's quite possible they don't need to move their pitching forward at all, but simply get better gloves (preferably ones that also have bats).

Kasi - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#219310) #

That 40 or 50 points of team OPS would be easily made up by Lind and Hill returning to 80% of last year's stats. Snider/Wallace/JPA could make up the rest of it on their own.

China fan - Tuesday, July 27 2010 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#219311) #

Sure. But what if Bautista loses 50 points of OPS, which is quite possible, or even likely? What if Wells reverts to 2009 form, rather than 2010 form? And is it reasonable to expect rookies (Wallace and Arencibia) to produce a lot in their first season? What if Snider continues to be inconsistent and streaky, which would not be surprising at his young age? I would argue that the Jays need more than just a recovery by Lind and Hill next season -- they need four or five positions in the lineup to be significantly better than 2010.

brent - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#219312) #

Suddenly, multiple teams are interested Edwin Jackson on the D'bags. Me thinks other GM's smell blood in the water...

Kasi - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#219313) #

Well sure China, but I don't think anyone was thinking we'd be contending in 2011. Let's say 2012 and they still have both Wells and Bautista.

Hill and Lind should be at least at 80% of last year's performance. Especially Lind.

Let's say Bautista loses 50 ops from this year by then.

So does Wells.

Yunel holds steady at what he is now (aka an 0.800 - .850 OPS player)

JPA I think can match Buck.

Wallace can give us a good 50 points over Overbay.

Snider can give us 50 points easy over Lewis, possibly 100-150.

And that is not even getting into what trades can be made before then.

brent - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#219314) #

I love Juneyell, but I almost have to wonder if the Jays should turn around and deal him for a huge haul or maybe in the offseason.

China fan - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#219315) #

On another front: there are rumors that Red Sox prospect Roman Mendez, a 20-year-old pitcher from the Dominican, could be heading to the Jays in exchange for Scott Downs. It's unclear if Mendez would be the sole player coming to the Jays, or whether he'd be part of a package of prospects. Any thoughts on Mendez? He's only the 24th-best prospect in the Red Sox system, according to Soxprospects.com.   On the positive side, he's got a fastball that sits 94 to 96 mph and tops out at 99 mph.

Personally, this is the kind of deal that makes me stop and ponder. Yet another starting pitcher prospect? One who wouldn't join the Jays until 2013 or 2014 at the earliest, and might end up being converted into a reliever anyway? Only the 24th-best prospect in the Sox system? In exchange for probably the best reliever that the Jays currently own?   I don't know, I'm not sure if Mendez alone would be enough for a deal. The Jays bullpen is in serious need of upgrading -- it's the weakest element of the Jays pitching staff at the moment -- and I'm reluctant to trade away the team's best reliever for a mid-level prospect.

On the other hand, a key question is whether Anthopolous believes that top-level bullpen veterans will be "fungible" in the off-season. In other words, will it be easy to find a free-agent reliever who is nearly equal to Downs in quality? Will it be relatively simple for the Jays to pick up a free-agent reliever for a reasonable price in the off-season, as they did with Kevin Gregg last year?   If that is AA's assessment of the free-agent market, and if he's getting a good offer for Downs, maybe he should trade the guy. The Jays don't need a strong bullpen for the last two months of 2010. They need a strong bullpen in 2011 and 2012. If the Jays can trade a reliever now and pick up an equal-calibre reliever in the offseason for $2-million or $3-million, then sure, do the deal, pick up the prospects.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#219316) #

When I made my comments about the Rays vs. Jays debate I obviously wasn't talking about next season. That's apples to oranges. I was trying to point out how far we have to go (even offensively) before we can match the current (i.e. competing) Rays squad. I still maintain that the difference between Soriano, Crawford, and Longoria and the Jays equivalents is HUGE and that people are decidedly underrating those players if they think otherwise. And I missed Price in that post too.

I'm optimistic about our team, but I'm hearing people assume that Travis Snider is guarenteed to be better than Crawford going forward. Again, the truth of that comment notwithstanding, he hasn't done that yet. Thus we still have to make up that talent difference.

On a completely different note, unless my math is wrong Bautista is currently on pace to break Bell's team record for HRs. I for one would like to see someone have a go at it.

TamRa - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#219317) #

Saying the Rays develop more talent isn't exactly something I've come with it..it's been said by BaseballAmerica pretty much every year.

Such conclusions tend to become faddish. they are based around, for instance, great expectations for BJ Upton (among other things) which still haven't panned out.

It also has a lot to do with their (rightly) highly regarded farm system. But that's not what i'm discussing here.

Let alone pretty much any other publication you can think of. I think my only issue with your comparison is that in one category you're choosing a winner by OPS, but in another category you're using our prospects versus their major leaguers.

No, not really. I admitted that we have not YET developed anyone at catcher as good as Jaso - i was simply saying that no one, including the aformentioned publications, are praising the Rays because of Jaso.

We can't use potential to prove a point. The argument would be "would you prefer Jaso or Buck?"

Except we were talking about talent DEVELOPED by the team and we didn't develop Buck. If i WERE making that comparison, buck pretty much slaughters him but IMO that comparison would have violated the premise of the post.

for example, because otherwise we'd then have to start arguing other prospects. We could go "Wells vs. Jennings" or "Lewis vs. Jennings" for example, etc

With respect - i think you are missing the context of what i was replying to - talent DEVELOPED by the teams. The only place, IIRC, that i cited prospects is catcher - because we have no successfully developed catcher to compare - and the aside that snider will likely surpass Longoria as a hitter.

. I just don't like to deal with what ifs against statistics. I think it'd be cool if we were to do a Tampa Bay versus Toronto argument on the premise of our farm systems, because no matter how much we argue Toronto vs. Tampa at the MLB level, one of these teams is in the wild card and one is not.

Well, let's break it down then, at the major league level - players on the respective rosters who were developed by the team or were obtained for an already developed player:

Longoia v. Snider
Crawford v. Wells
Upton v. Lind
Brignac v. Hill
Jaso v. ?

I'm not going to go digging for WAR and so forth but I don't think that we get skunked in that comparison.

On the mound:

Garza v. Morrow (each traded for homegrown major leaguers)
Price v. Romero
Shields v. Marcum
Neimann v. Cecil
Davis v. Listch/Zep

Again, one can quibble and compare various stats massaged to suit either team but that's not a huge gap, whoever wins.

Sure. But what if Bautista loses 50 points of OPS, which is quite possible, or even likely?

Likely

What if Wells reverts to 2009 form, rather than 2010 form?

No reason to assume that. 2010 is pretty similar to his average 162game year - well, somewhat better but at the rate he's cooling it has a good chance of being right on it)

just as there was no reason to expect his 2009, or Lind and Hill's 2010, there's no logical reason to assume it will happen again. of course, "what if" pretty much makes anything possible. you know without me saying that i could "what if" all these players into the world series.

And is it reasonable to expect rookies (Wallace and Arencibia) to produce a lot in their first season?

Reasonable to assume it's quite POSSIBLE - most rookies struggle but not all do.

What if Snider continues to be inconsistent and streaky, which would not be surprising at his young age?

surprising? no - but it wouldn't be surprising if he took the same sort of quantum leap Lind did last year either - and most observers would bet more heavily on the latter than the former, i would guess.

I would argue that the Jays need more than just a recovery by Lind and Hill next season -- they need four or five positions in the lineup to be significantly better than 2010.

that depends on what you mean by "recovery" when you speak of those two.

i think though, that saying "4 or 5" have to be "significantly better" is a LARGE stretch.

If Hill reverts to something say midway between his career stats and his big year....and Lind repeats something similar to 2009 - in both cases significant improvements - then the lineup as a whole is significantly better than this year with just that alone.

take 50 points of OPS from Bautista and give it to snider - that's a wash. JPA about as good as Buck? Not asking too much, Wallace as good as O'bay this year? Again, not a shocking result. Esco as good or better on the whole year than Gonzo was....Bautista at 3B producing as much or more than EE ...Lewis not receeding...

That offense is not a little bit better than Tampa's is right now - it's considerably better, and there's not really much difference in our pitching. (except, as noted, health which has to run out for them at some point)
In fact, it's almost certainly as good as Boston's healthy lineup.

now will all that happen?

Heck i dunno. but it's at least as reasonable - no more so - than the suggestion that it could have the difficulties you theorized (and i know you were not making a prediction either)

Kelekin - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 01:55 AM EDT (#219318) #

@China Fan: Based on my digging yesterday, it sounds like he would be a piece but not the center of the deal. It's tough to imagine who would be the center of the deal. Honestly, I have no problem getting more arms. I rather see guys with potential out there over the Merkin Valdez' and the 24-year old relievers in Low-A. There's nothing wrong with increased depth, but we really do need to go for impact bats soon. But yeah. Let's wait and see what happens. The other big rumor you might be interested in is out of Minnesota, it seems all over Minnesota fan boards that a deal is being worked on with the Jays. I can only imagine it's for Gregg, based on their team needs. Not sure what we could get in return there either - maybe Valencia.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 02:33 AM EDT (#219319) #

It might be more accurate to say that Bautista and Zobrist were not developed by the organizations that employed them before Toronto and Tampa...

dawgatc - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 02:56 AM EDT (#219320) #

how about mendez plus good third base prospect david renfroe?-the equivalent of 2 high draft picks and no big bonus from us

slitheringslider - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 03:03 AM EDT (#219321) #

I have developed as big of a man-crush on Jose Bautista as much as the next guy, but I think it will be prudent to detach ourselves from those feelings and cash him in at his peak value. While 29 is certainly not old, but he is on the wrong side of the magical age 27 peak year. He is very well still in his prime, but on the wrong side of his prime. I think offering him a long-term contract extension is a terrible idea. Extending someone right after a career year usually means overpayment, the same reason why hyped up stocks are usually overpriced. If AA extends him after the year, you are overpaying for what he did this year. Just look at how long term contracts after career years worked out for the Jays in the past and in baseball as a whole, the results are dreadful. Another reason why Bautista's value is at his peak right now if because he has 1 more year of arbitration eligibility left, that means if someone trade for him now, the would get 1.5 years of him instead of just a 2 month rental player if the Jays deal him next year. Teams are often reluctant to deal top prospects for rentals, but are usually more generous for players that are under control for longer.

As for those who compares Bautista to Cliff Lee, we have to realize that Cliff Lee is an anomaly rather than the norm for mid-career breakouts. I'm hard pressed to find 5 players in the past 20 years who followed Cliff Lee's career path (established mediocrity, minors, come back to dominate, Chris Carpenter is another off the top of my head). If we do keep Bautista, I hope he proves me wrong by crushing baseballs to a .900OPS again next year, but I'm willing to lay pretty good odds against that happening again next year. Just look at Adam Lind, someone who broke out to a .932 OPS in his age 25 season, every sign points toward another monster year yet he has struggled. I think most would agree that Adam Lind would've be a much safer bet to hit .900OPS this year than Bautista next year.

Obviously, don't give him away for something mediocre, but if we can land a couple decent prospects I don't think we will regret it a couple years down the road.

TamRa - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 03:34 AM EDT (#219322) #

maybe a good comp for JB is Jayson Werth.

It's not perfect but they peaked at a similar point age wise and I wonder if Bautista's shelf life as an impressive hitter won't be similar

Of course, one might also cite Raul Ibanez, who didn't get to play full time until he was 29 and had an OPS+ from 115 to 125 in 7 of the next 8 years before having a very late career year.

Albeit, we don't KNOW yet that Werth will fade, he might have another five years at this level.

Which brings me full circle - which is where I've been on this question for a week. Take a great offer if you get one, but don't assume that this season is a complete fluke. if he regresses to something in the 115-120 range, given his defensive value, that's an asset worth keeping and worth spending some money on.

is it possible he regrsses all the way back to the 96 he brought in 2010? Sure. but it's not a given that just because he's not really THIS good that he goes ALL the way back.

In the end, i trust Alex enough that i'll smile about whichever choice he makes - but my prediction is that he won't get an offer good enough to deal Bautista and after the season he'll sign an extension. He'll try for a 2+1 but probably have to settle for a 3 year commitment

Kelekin - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 03:50 AM EDT (#219323) #

@dawgatc: I'd stay away from Renfroe at this point. He's still young, but his .157/.246/.225 is hardly inspiring.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#219324) #

Will you are still missing the very obvious point that the Rays talent has proven their success, consistently, and at the major league level. Sure Snider might be capable of producing a better offensive season than Longoria, but he hasn't, not once. Plus he's never going to play gold glove defense (let alone do it at the hot corner). Likewise I'm sure Wells is capable of producing a better season than Crawford, but he sure doesn't do it consistently. There's plenty of other examples but let's simplify.

We'd need our entire roster to either meet lofty expectations (snider) or play close to their best established level of performance (Hill, Lind) in order to matchup favourably with the current Rays squad. And that squad has Jason Bartlett, James Shields, BJ Upton, Dioner Navarro, Carlos Pena, Kelly Shoppach, Randy Choate, and arguably Matt Garza/en Zobrist having down seasons.

Plus, worst of all, that squad isn't even leading the division. Does a perfect storm of performance/prospect development get us close to the current Yankees level of talent? Do we have anyone on our team or in our system that is as big a star as Texeira, Cano, Jeter, A-Rod, Sabathia, Rivera, Posada and CO? Maybe, but we sure as hell don't have 7 of them.

I like our current team, and think that AA is really working to build something special here, but make no mistake about it, this is 1982, not 1990.

allcanadian34 - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#219326) #

Has anyone seen this article on Jose Bautista?

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-bautista072210

"...Bautista�s quick hands for years left scouts dreaming.

Everyone wondered just how good Bautista could be if he started his swing earlier. They told him that � late on fastballs, too slow to load weight, killing those quick wrists with poor timing � but none of it stuck, not until Bautista arrived in Toronto."

I don't buy this 'peak value' because I don't think anyone believes he will duplicate this season. As such, no one will want to give up top prospects to get him. Unless it's an amazing deal, there's no reason to trade Bautista as he seems to have figured out his swing and he should be a solid power-hitting RF for the 3-4 years at least.

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#219327) #

Next year might be a better time to trade Bautista - if he keeps producing, then teams will no longer worry

about a one season wonder, one of the AA guys may be ready or the Jays can then decide if they want to make

a multiyear offer.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#219328) #

I have to disagree with that.

There's 3 advantages the Rays have had over the Jays this year, which explains them being 10 games ahead in the standings:

The Rays' bullpen is currently better than the Jays', mostly due to Soriano being a lights out closer that the Jays don't have. The Jays have blown six more saves than the Rays - that's 6 more wins our bullpen has turned into losses than the Rays' pen has - that's more than half of the difference in the standings right now.
Health of the Starting Rotation - quite insanely, the Rays for the 2nd season running have yet to have any starter miss even one start. Not one start missed going on two years now. That means no fill-in starters. That means no regular starters having to struggle as they recover from injury. It's an amazing track record of health which gives them a huge advantage in this most fundamental area over every team in baseball - and especially over a team like the Jays who has had so many injuries in their rotation. I mean, this has been a "good" year healthwise for the Jays' rotation, and they've still needed 16 replacements starts, in which they've received a 6.34era. The Jays have received a 3.94era from their top-5 starters.
The Jays have actually been significantly better purely at the plate than the Rays (.763ops to .745ops), but the Rays' great talent on the basepaths makes up the difference, and the two teams have been very similar overall in terms of collective offensive performance (.332wOBA to .334wOBA). The Rays, though, still have managed to score 30 more runs, based on being ridiculously CLUTCH in the first month of the season - their april performance with RISP was through the roof, and gave them an early lead in runs scored that the Jays haven't been able to close yet (though they haven't fallen any further behind since the end of April either).

So yes, the Rays' have a clear advantage with Soriano being a dominant closer this year. That is something that the Jays don't have, and clearly makes them worse than the Rays.

And yes, the Rays' have been much, much healthier in terms of their starting staff - and we just have to accept the fact that we can't expect the Jays to be able to perform as well as the Rays with that kind of health disadvantage. The jays' need to be as healthy as the Rays to compete with the Rays.

As for the hitting - I don't think the Rays have any real advantage there at all. And I think the Jays have a large advantage going forward, with Snider, Wallace, and JPA all with the potential to be significant new contributors very soon, while the Rays have only one hitting prospect of that calibre that's close, and he's not doing very well right now.

The difference has very little to do with the rays "superstar power" - mostly because the Rays don't have any superstars.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#219329) #

What's a superstar? Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria are probably 2 of the 5 best players in the AL right now. Defence matters.

Anders - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#219330) #

A few general points:

I think that the value of having a bunch of average to slightly above average guys, with no Johnny Macs, 1-9, is very underated. Throw in one or two guys having a good year and that's a real threat of a lineup. While the Jays are theoretically in this position this year, in actuality the lineup has broken down about this ways:

C: above average (good seasons from Buck and Molina)

1B: significantly below average (Bad season from Overbay)

2B: significantly below average (Awful year from Hill)

3B: above average (average from EE, above average from Bautista)

SS: above average (both Yunel and A-Gon above average)

LF: below average (Fred Lewis above average, everyone else terrible)

CF: significantly above average (VW above average)

RF: significantly above average (Bautista and Snidro both great)

DH: way below average (Lind = abysmal)

Looking at who we have now and where guys are actually playing, we've gotten good production from Catcher, SS and LF, Great production in CF/RF, average production from 3rd, and bad production from DH/1B/2B. With all of this we are 6th in the AL in R/G. To me the good news is that 1B/DH are literally the easiest positions to upgrade, and we will have a new 1B and hopefully a bounceback year from Lind. Hill, who knows, but potentially an average hitter. Shortstop and Left look good with Yunel and Lewis, Catcher is in flux, and 3B who knows. Plus Travis Snider slots in somewhere. The bad news is that Bautista is unlikely to hit as well, and I would put Wells in this boat also. While not all of these things are guaranteed to come to pass, I think on balance I would say I am optimistic for next year. To be fair there may be some growing pains at catcher and first, but I think on aggregate they can't be worse overall (Overbay has been really below average for a 1B). I'm 90% certain Bautista will be back, and 75% certain he will play the outfield, so all the remains to figure out is how Lewis, Wells, Bautista and Snider fit into the outfield. Wallace is going to play first and Lind DH, so it will be interesting.

Lastly, count me amongst those in the Bautista fan club. I think the odds of him hitting 40 home runs next year are slim, but he walks and has power, and over the last two years (ie with the Jays) his cumulative line is 245/357/496 in 824 PA. His HR/FB is above average (15.6%) but his BABIP is below average (.257). He walks consistently (13.5%) and as Magpie has noted, consistently hit for power. To me he is also a below average to slightly below average defender with a plus plus arm.

Anders - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#219331) #

MLBTR has the Jays asking for Chamberlain or Montero, or Casey Kelly or Jose Iglesias from the Yanks/Sox, respectively, which would be an ML Player, or number 1, number 1 or number 6 prospects (the later two according to soxprospects.com)

No harm in asking; if the Yanks were willing to give up Montero for Soria, Downs has been at least in the same ballpark as Soria the last four years, though contract and age work against him.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#219332) #

Crawford is not a top-5 player in the AL, and not really even close.

Put him in CF or RF, and suddenly he's just another guy, by any metric.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#219333) #

Except wheels, of course, But that's minor, relatively speaking.

Spifficus - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#219334) #

Funny. I thought the metrics were indicating that he'd still be an above average CF. He didn't do anything to dissuade that notion when he played there for about 40 games in 03 and 04. Considering none of the metrics have his defense falling in left, I don't know why he'd be less in Centre. He wouldn't be Gutierrez there, but he'd probably be 10 runs or so above average.

That said, He's more Star than Superstar to me... one that's having a superstar-caliber year, mind you. Longoria? Now that's more superstar-ish.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#219335) #

That would make him a better CF than Upton, which might beg the question as to why he's in LF at all.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#219336) #

Who is a superstar right now in the AL? The plausibly great position players would be Crawford, Longoria, Pedroia, Cabrera, Youkilis, Cano, Mauer, Morneau and Hamilton. However you slice it, the Rays have top-end talent.

It's funny to see the Yankees not dominating the superstar category. They've been doing it this year with above-average contributions from many players- Swisher, Gardner, Rodriguez, Jeter, Posada, Teixeira, Granderson...

John Northey - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#219337) #

Hey, if the Yanks and Sox are fighting it out for the same guy I say ask for the sky. I'd give up all 3 marketable relievers (Downs/Frasor/Gregg) for Montero and maybe for Chamberlain (any one for Chamberlain would be fantastic) depending on what the Jay scouts say [if they think he is now at this level forever then no point]. Same for the Sox prospects.

I see Montero for any reliever as a potential Anderson for Bagwell (or McGriff as a throw in for Tom Dodd and Dale Murray) level trade. If you can find a team crazy enough to do it, then take full advantage.

jerjapan - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#219338) #

AllCanadian, thanks for that article on Bautista - very interesting.

I find it quite interesting that AA was behind his acquisition - I wasn't paying to much attention to the move at the time, but that's another feather in the cap of our rookie GM.

Also, it seems unlikely that Bautista would have blossomed without the waiving of Rios. While I'd love to have Rios, sometimes a bad move has an unexpected silver lining.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#219339) #

The Yankees have a 154 OPS+ second baseman in Cano, that is a superstar by definition I'd think (hitting better than Lind last year while playing 2B). 120+ OPS+ from Teixeira, A-Rod, Swisher & Posada plus from their top bench guy in Thames.

Yeash, the Yanks are strong offensively. Weakness offensively is only at catcher (Posada has mainly been a DH) with a 83 OPS+ from Cervelli and a 100 from Jeter and 101 from CF Granderson. Dang nice. Wonder if we mix in Buck could we get Montero?

Also surprised to see the Yankees have two guys in the rotation with ERA+'s sub 90 - AJ and Vazquez - while Hughes has cooled off considerably as he is down to 100 (6.26 ERA since June 13th, 5.47 since May 17th, 1.38 ERA before that). They really do need another starter too for the playoffs.

Kasi - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#219340) #

Longoria is definitely a top 5 player in the AL. Crawford I just don't see it. He'd be lucky to break the top 10 position players, and imo everyone Mike listed in that post is better then him. I could think of a couple others who are better too.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#219342) #

That's an interesting question about superstars.

It's certainly not like a few years ago when we had a number of guys in their primes regularly cranking out 1.000+ops seasons, like ARod, Manny, Ortiz, and Vladdy,

Heck, we had Delgado cranking out .950+ops seasons every year and was hardly considered a superstar.

Spifficus - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#219343) #

That would make him a better CF than Upton, which might beg the question as to why he's in LF at all.

I would guess arm-strength stereotypes, or maybe Upton scouts better than the stats bare out. It doesn't seem to be because of the scouts opinion on Crawford - everything I've read over the years backs up the metrics.

smcs - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#219344) #

On Bautista, compare this home run from 2007 (if link doesn't work, http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=3150228) and this home run from last night (http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10344091&c_id=tor).

In the first, he does a double-toe tap, plants his front foot, pointing it down the first base line, and then his hands start to move forward. When his bat comes through the zone, his body is now wide open, with the force of the swing turning his front ankle over, probably sacrificing some power and adjusting the plane of his swing, as well. Last night, he has the big front foot step, plants it, pointing it almost at the pitchers mound with his hands already moving forward. He still rolls over his front ankle, but it is much less pronounced than in 2007. So he is essentially getting started earlier, which is allowing him to catch those fastballs that he was too late for in Pittsburgh. According to fangraphs, he is doing significantly better than his career averages against fastballs and sliders. With Pittsburgh, he performed very well against change-ups. This makes sense because he would have been starting too late to catch up to fastballs, but was able to stay back to hit change-ups. This year, he is performing his worst against change-ups. As good as he has been against fastballs, he has been that bad against change-ups, but has seen 5 times as many fastballs as change-ups.

He has now hit 40 home-runs going back to September...let the good times roll.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#219345) #

So how many 1000+ OPS guys are out there? For the entire major leagues with leader's score...

2010: 4 - 1.073 (Cabrera, Morneau, Hamilton, Votto)
2009: 3 - 1.101
2008: 3 - 1.114
2007: 7 - 1.067
2006: 8 - 1.102
2005: 5 - 1.080
2004: 9 - 1.422
2003: 8 - 1.278
2002: 9 - 1.381
2001: 10+ - 1.379
2000: 10+ - 1.162
1999: 10+ - 1.168
1998: 5 - 1.222
1997: 10+ - 1.172
1996: 10+ - 1.198
1995: 7 - 1.107
1994: 9 - 1.217
1993: 7 - 1.136
1992: 1 - 1.080
1991: 1 - 1.006
1990: 1 - 1.016
1989: 1 - 1.023
1988: 0 - 0.965
1987: 3 - 1.055 (called the live ball year)
1986: 0 - 0.967
1985: 1 - 1.022
1984: 0 - 0.920
1983: 0 - 0.947
1982: 0 - 0.957
1981: 1 - 1.080
1980: 2 - 1.118
1979: 1 - 1.059
1978: 0 - 0.979
1977: 3 - 1.019

Boy is there a clear pattern eh? Pre-1993 it was 0-3 guys a year, then a jump to 7 in 1993 with 5+ every year until 2008 when it dropped to 3. This year at 4 is high, but injuries and time will cut that back down I suspect with only two guys within 50 points in Youkilis 974 and Pujols 955. Also of note how from 1993 to 2004 we had at least one guy over 1.100 after just one guy doing that from 1977-1992.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#219346) #

You do have to shift the goalposts quite a bit. Here is a chart with AL league average slash lines for 2006-10:

Year	BA	OBP	SLUG
2006	.275	.339	.437
2007	.271	.338	.423
2008	.268	.336	.420
2009	.267	.336	.428
2010	.262	.331	.411

uglyone - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#219348) #

Those are really striking numbers. And even after mulling it I'm not sure I know what a superstar is right now. Maybe we're in-between "generations" right now, with the old superstars fading and the younger ones yet to really establish themselves. maybe. Massive outliers also seem to be the norm nowadays. Whether it's Mauer, Zobrist, Lind last year, or Morneau, Cano, and Bautista this year. Or maybe they only seem more the norm because there's fewer established prime stars that you can expect to see up top of the stats charts year in and year out.

Whichever way it works, though, I still don't think a guy like Longo is unmatchable on our parts (given that he was not really close to Lind at the plate last year, nor Bautista this year, I might even say that's obvious), and no matter what definition of superstar I use, I still can;t find room for Crawford and his career best .830ops under that label. I mean, if Crawford is a superstar, Yunel Escobar and his career best .812ops + elite defense ain't far behind.

But, bringing this Superstar discussion right back around to this trade deadline for our Jays......I have to say this is what has me most excited about Alex the Greek....the man understands the need for Impact Talent. Star talent. Even Superstar talent.

That's why he's so willing to package a bunch of good assets, for one much better asset - even if he runs the risk of giving up more talent overall, he knows the need to keep trying to add those top notch talents. That's how we get two young impact-level talents like Morrow and Escobar in return for 5 pretty darn good but not likely impact-level assets.

And when I hear AA asking for Joba or Montero or Casey Kelly for Downs.....instead of dismissing that as a pipe dream, I know that AA is willing to add other good pieces along with Downs to maybe make that kind of return more realistic. Just like if someone had said AA was asking for Escobar in return for Gonzo, we would all have thought that was a pipe dream as well.

And so if you are the kind of fan that thinks what the Jays really need to address is their impact-level talent, you gotta love what AA has been doing here, and you gotta love the rumours of his asking prices for his trade chips this deadline, because he seems to be agreeing with you, and given how badly both the Yanks and Sox need a lefty reliever right now, it's pretty exciting to hear a name like Montero coming up.

I'd be all over a Downs + Wallace for Montero deal, for example.

katman - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#219349) #

_"According to fangraphs, he is doing significantly better than his career averages against fastballs and sliders. With Pittsburgh, he performed very well against change-ups. This makes sense because he would have been starting too late to catch up to fastballs, but was able to stay back to hit change-ups. This year, he is performing his worst against change-ups. As good as he has been against fastballs, he has been that bad against change-ups, but has seen 5 times as many fastballs as change-ups."_

See, that's really, really interesting to me. Because we can be very sure that the league WILL start to adjust, and throw him a lot more change-ups. (I'm personally shocked that they keep running on the guy, but am very entertained by it). At which point, Bautista either shows that he can adapt to foil the new approach, and keeps most of his stats - or he could easily regress to a problem level (Lind/Hill 2010 class, so AVG .200 or so with 20 homers and OBP around .290-310).

Which would appear to be an argument for dealing him, even at less than full value. That would be the prudent/ safer thing to do.

The gamble would be to bet that he will adjust. Some think he will:

_"San Francisco and Detroit and Atlanta and the White Sox have inquired about trading for Bautista, sources said, because for all of his past deficiencies and for everything sample size teaches us about weighing past performance, they believe this is no fluke."_

Effectively, Bautista = (is equivalent to) a high-potential almost-ready prospect.

If we truly believe that what the Jays need is to gamble more and stockpile lots of high-ceiling talent, then unless you get nearly ready high ceiling talent back in return for Bautista, it's probably best just to treat him as part of that stockpile and keep him.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#219353) #

I guess if the Mets are the potential trading partners, the targets would be Wilmer Flores or Reese Havens. Havens keeps getting small injuries; he was a shortstop originally now at second but apparently has the arm for third base.

TamRa - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#219355) #

Will you are still missing the very obvious point that the Rays talent has proven their success, consistently, and at the major league level.

I don't much disagree with most of your post- but that point is not the point I was replying to.

I was replying specifically to a point which stated that the Rays had "developed a lot more talent" (paraphrased)

What's a superstar? Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria are probably 2 of the 5 best players in the AL right now. Defence matters.

Among AL hitters, here's the guys i would confidently rank ahead of Crawford, not having taken the time to look up the WAR on any of them:

Cabrera (even without great D)
Morneau
Youkils (bad as i hate to say it)
Cano
Beltre (this year)
Longoria
Mauer
Rodriguez

Beyond that, I'd put Crawford in a group of players of similar contributions who would be difficult to rank conclusively - including Rios, Markakis, Choo, and Hamilton and possibly others.

so ARGUABLY top 10 but not conclusively - surely top 20.

smcs - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#219357) #

Question to Those Who Know These Things...

Is it conceivable, not is it true or false, but conceivable, that Upton's poor fielding in terms of UZR (last amongst qualified CFs) could be partially attributed to the fact that Crawford is really really good (1st in UZR) and Zobrist is above average in LF and RF? What I mean to ask is if is UZR flawed in that 2 exceptional outfielders can take balls and plays away from the 3rd, making them look bad in the process?

James W - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#219358) #

If you're going to say "Beltre (this year)" then I would argue that Crawford is outperforming Mauer and Rodriguez this year.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#219359) #

WAR has Crawford as the 2nd best position player in the AL since the beginning of 2009 behind Longoria, not that this is definitive. You can certainly argue about whether he is a historically great defensive left-fielder, as UZR would have it, or whether he is merely very good.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#219360) #

If we want to use WAR as the basis of comparison, then we'll have to admit that rather large edge the Jays have in the starting pitching department over the Rays:

Romero 3.3
Morrow 2.6
Marcum 2.5
Price 2.4
Cecil 1.9
Shields 1.8
Niemann 1.5
Garza 1.2
Litsch 0.1
Davis 0.1

If we want to use WAR.

dawgatc - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#219363) #

its his first year but yes .157 - yikes - alright we'll take mendez and r.fuentes(toolsy first year of)-and throw in d . renfroe - thanks o.k you can have j. macdonald too thanks

Dave Till - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#219365) #

Everybody has an opinion, so here's mine: I think that it would be insane of Anthopoulos to trade Bautista now. Clinically insane.

The way that teams win is that they somehow acquire players who are the best in the league. At this moment, Bautista is among the league leaders in not one but three categories: home runs, walks, and outfield assists. He can play multiple positions at least competently. He's not expensive. He's good in the clubhouse (Cito asked him to mentor Escobar). He likes it here.

Sure, he won't stay at this level - who can? But I think this is close to his actual true level of ability. He's whacking balls out of the park both at home and on the road. And, it's worth recalling, he was hitting up a storm in September of last year too.

If Bautista is traded - unless he is traded for an entirely awesome package of talent - you will be able to hear my howls of outrage from wherever you happen to be reading this.

ZekeBella - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#219367) #

Ok, so you wouldn't trade Bautista for say, Evan Longoria and David Price? That would be insane on AA's part? I think you mean to say that it would be insane to trade him for low value. So it just becomes a matter of what you need for him doesn't it? A bit like the old joke about the woman being offered $5 for sex and then a million. Now that we have determined what you are let's negotiate!

Ok. I do see yuor disclaimer in the last sentence but I just think it is foolish not to see what is out there. Even if the Jays keep him, they will pay thru the teeth for it financially (Vernon Wells anyone?) with no guarantees this was not a career year. It is so easy to not look at the big picture in baseball with so many games night after night, I think AA has this ability to keep his focus and I trust him to make the right decision on Bautista. If he is traded he will get value for him..

92-93 - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#219369) #

Bautista's throw to 3B yesterday was absolutely ridiculous, and had me in deep thought at the ballpark. Did he throw to 3rd because he thought it was a shorter angle than to home? Did he throw there because he figured Markakis wouldn't be running as hard, eventhough Tejada is the slower runner? Was it because it's a lot easier for a runner going home to avoid a tag on a throw from RF than it is for the runner going 2nd to 3rd with his back to the OF? Were all these things running through JoBau's mind before the pitch and as he raced to track the drive to the wall down?

Without getting into the subjectivity of the labels star and superstar, Yunel ISN'T far behind, or at least he wasn't last year, which is why I found the anti-trade opinions dumbfounding. In terms of WAR/G he was right there with Tulowitzki. As for Longoria/Bautista/Lind, I think you continue to severely underrate defensive importance like you seem to be willing to do with Encarnacion.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#219371) #

we can be very sure that the league WILL start to adjust, and throw him a lot more change-ups.

Well, those guys who can actually throw a decent change-up. There's really not all that many...

Major league pitchers like to throw fastballs. They're proud of their fastballs. They're in the major leagues, most of them, because they can throw really hard. If you tell one of them that this guy feasts on fastballs, they tend to go all Nuke LaLoosh on you and say "Well, he hasn't seen my heat."

Alex Obal - Wednesday, July 28 2010 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#219390) #

If we want to use WAR...

Awesome. I am going to cite this a billion times.

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