Bauxite Ramone had the following query:
The only worry I have is [Snider] now has 38 strikeouts in 86 at bats, that seems alarming to me [since returning from AAA]. Is that cause for serious concern?
We all watched Travis Snider came to the plate five times last night. The Yankee fielders could have stayed home. Snider put two balls deep into the right field stands and struck out three times.
Does this remind us of anyone?
Well, yeah.
The obvious comp is Adam Dunn. They were exactly the same age during their minor league careers, and accumulated a very similar amount of playing time.
Dunn was drafted put of high school, and played 343 games in the minor leagues from age 18 to 21. He had 1483 plate appearances and struck out 270 times (18%). He batted .304 and hit 63 HRs.
Snider, also drafted out of high school, has played 353 games in the minor leagues from ages 18 to 21. He had 1506 plate appearances and struck out 377 times (25%). He also batted .304 and hit 64 HRs.
Ok, that's a little spooky.
The obvious difference is walks. Snider drew 168 BB as a minor leaguer, which is a lot. Dunn drew 230 BB, which is ridiculous. Snider was more likely to get a hit when he put the ball in play (399 for 936, .426) than Dunn (367 for 938, .391) and hit considerably more doubles and triples (91 and 9) than Dunn (70 and 4).
As a major leaguer, Dunn has struck out in 26.5% of his plate appearances, and has hit .371 (1093-2943) on his balls in play. So far, Snider has struck out in 29.0% of his plate appearances, and has hit .372 (64-172) when he makes contact. We're looking at Dunn's entire major league career, of course, whereas Snider only has what amounts to about half of one season. But Dunn, strangely enough, was fully formed when arrived in the majors at age 21. Since then, he's had better years than his rookie year and worse years. But it would be hard to say he's developed from what he was then, when he hit .262 with 19 HRs in 66 games.
What can we tease out of this so far?
Snider strikes out more than Adam Dunn. Yikes. He struck a lot more often than Dunn in the minors, and he's striking out a little more often in the majors.
Snider was more likely to get a hit on a ball in play in the minors - he hasn't done that yet in the majors. One thinks he should be able to - he was able to in the minors, and he's certainly a better athlete. He definitely needs to be able to do that. As it is, there are already very good reasons to expect Snider's career to be a long struggle to hit .250, and we can expect to see him put up some pretty amazing strikeout numbers along the way. He's quite capable of fanning 200 times in a season, maybe even 215 or 220 times. Jose Canseco's single season team record of 159 Ks will be broken before Snider is eligible for arbitration. Carlos Delgado's career mark of 1242 should survive before Snider becomes a free agent, but Snider should be giving Lloyd Moseby a run for second place on the franchise list by then.
Snider needs to develop from where he is now. You always assume that a 21 year old will develop - but there are no guarantees. After all, Dunn didn't develop. Dunn didn't really need to, of course - Dunn didn't strike out as much as Snider, and Dunn also had his enormous walk totals working for him, allowing him to get away with hitting for a mediocre BAVG. For sure, Snider's power had better develop the way we all hope it will. It hasn't yet - he has 10 HR in his first 255 major league ABs (Dunn, at the same age, hit 19 HR in his first 244 ABs. Snider needs to get there as well, and he needs to do better than Dunn when he makes contact. As he did when he was a minor leaguer.
The only worry I have is [Snider] now has 38 strikeouts in 86 at bats, that seems alarming to me [since returning from AAA]. Is that cause for serious concern?
We all watched Travis Snider came to the plate five times last night. The Yankee fielders could have stayed home. Snider put two balls deep into the right field stands and struck out three times.
Does this remind us of anyone?
Well, yeah.
The obvious comp is Adam Dunn. They were exactly the same age during their minor league careers, and accumulated a very similar amount of playing time.
Dunn was drafted put of high school, and played 343 games in the minor leagues from age 18 to 21. He had 1483 plate appearances and struck out 270 times (18%). He batted .304 and hit 63 HRs.
Snider, also drafted out of high school, has played 353 games in the minor leagues from ages 18 to 21. He had 1506 plate appearances and struck out 377 times (25%). He also batted .304 and hit 64 HRs.
Ok, that's a little spooky.
The obvious difference is walks. Snider drew 168 BB as a minor leaguer, which is a lot. Dunn drew 230 BB, which is ridiculous. Snider was more likely to get a hit when he put the ball in play (399 for 936, .426) than Dunn (367 for 938, .391) and hit considerably more doubles and triples (91 and 9) than Dunn (70 and 4).
As a major leaguer, Dunn has struck out in 26.5% of his plate appearances, and has hit .371 (1093-2943) on his balls in play. So far, Snider has struck out in 29.0% of his plate appearances, and has hit .372 (64-172) when he makes contact. We're looking at Dunn's entire major league career, of course, whereas Snider only has what amounts to about half of one season. But Dunn, strangely enough, was fully formed when arrived in the majors at age 21. Since then, he's had better years than his rookie year and worse years. But it would be hard to say he's developed from what he was then, when he hit .262 with 19 HRs in 66 games.
What can we tease out of this so far?
Snider strikes out more than Adam Dunn. Yikes. He struck a lot more often than Dunn in the minors, and he's striking out a little more often in the majors.
Snider was more likely to get a hit on a ball in play in the minors - he hasn't done that yet in the majors. One thinks he should be able to - he was able to in the minors, and he's certainly a better athlete. He definitely needs to be able to do that. As it is, there are already very good reasons to expect Snider's career to be a long struggle to hit .250, and we can expect to see him put up some pretty amazing strikeout numbers along the way. He's quite capable of fanning 200 times in a season, maybe even 215 or 220 times. Jose Canseco's single season team record of 159 Ks will be broken before Snider is eligible for arbitration. Carlos Delgado's career mark of 1242 should survive before Snider becomes a free agent, but Snider should be giving Lloyd Moseby a run for second place on the franchise list by then.
Snider needs to develop from where he is now. You always assume that a 21 year old will develop - but there are no guarantees. After all, Dunn didn't develop. Dunn didn't really need to, of course - Dunn didn't strike out as much as Snider, and Dunn also had his enormous walk totals working for him, allowing him to get away with hitting for a mediocre BAVG. For sure, Snider's power had better develop the way we all hope it will. It hasn't yet - he has 10 HR in his first 255 major league ABs (Dunn, at the same age, hit 19 HR in his first 244 ABs. Snider needs to get there as well, and he needs to do better than Dunn when he makes contact. As he did when he was a minor leaguer.
