It's time to play.


Yesterday Dave the Rook reminded me that I had asserted prior ownership to this whole Snakes and Ladders concept. I don't have particularly fond memories of the game, by the way - but now it reminds me of my beloved Mott the Hoople:

In '72 we were born to lose
Slipped down snakes into yesterday's news
I was just about to quit...

Anyway. Every year some teams improve by 10 games (climbing the Ladder!) and some teams decline by 10 games (slipping down the Snakes.) It's usually around four teams a year in each group. Last season six teams climbed the Ladders, and only three slipped down the Snakes.

Can we see this coming? Well, we can try and we do. Last year's little contest produced a seven-way tie, as that's how many Bauxites identified four teams whose fortunes in 2007 would change dramatically. Alas, I didn't include a tie-breaker. This year, I will.

Anyway, let's give it up for Pistol, CeeBee, Hollywood Hartman, Mike Green, Nick, toperkris, Anders. Everyone who played got at least one right, and I can stop mocking my class of 2005 comrade. Rob, ya done better than me!

Last year, I thought it would be fun to track just how often each team has played our little game over the past decade, and when I discovered the hectic roller coaster ride that has been the path of the Detroit Tigers, I automatically included them in my 2007 group. Oops.

Anyway, here is our summary of the last decade:

2007
Ladders (6) - Chicago Cubs (+19), Cleveland (+18), Arizona (+14), Colorado (+13), Boston (+10), Seattle (+10)
Snakes (3) - Chicago White Sox (-18), Minnesota (-17), Oakland (-17)

2006
Ladders (4) - Detroit (+24), L.A. Dodgers (+17), N.Y. Mets (+14), Minnesota (+13)
Snakes (5) - St. Louis (-17), Cleveland (-15), Chicago Cubs (-13), Atlanta (-11), Washington (-10)

2005
Ladders (7) - Arizona (+26), Chicago White Sox (+16), Milwaukee (+14), Washington (+14), Cleveland (+13), Toronto (+13), N.Y. Mets (+12)
Snakes (4) - Texas (-10), Chicago Cubs (-10), San Francisco (-16), L.A. Dodgers (-22)

2004
Ladders (6) - Detroit (+29), San Diego (+23), St. Louis (+20), Texas (+18), Anaheim (+15), Cleveland (+12)
Snakes (5) - Montreal (-16), Toronto (-19), Kansas City (-25), Seattle (-30), Arizona (-33)

2003
Ladders (4) - Kansas City (+21), Chicago Cubs (+21), Milwaukee (+12), Florida (+12)
Snakes (4) - Detroit (-12), St. Louis (-12), Arizona (-14), Anaheim (-22)

2002
Ladders (6) - Anaheim (+24), Montreal (+15), Atlanta (+13), Cincinnati (+12), Boston (+11), Pittsburgh (+10)
Snakes (6) - Detroit (-11), Milwaukee (-12), San Diego (-13), Cleveland (-17), Chicago Cubs (-21), Seattle (-23)

2001
Ladders (6) - Seattle (+25), Chicago Cubs (+23), Houston (+21), Philadelphia (+21), Minnesota (+16), Oakland (+11)
Snakes (6) - Baltimore (-11), Chicago White Sox (-12), Kansas City (-12), N.Y. Mets (-12), Detroit (-13), Cincinnati (-19)

2000
Ladders (9) - Chicago White Sox (+20), St. Louis (+20), Florida (+15), Kansas City (+13), Anaheim (+12), Seattle (+12), San Francisco (+11), Colorado (+10), Detroit (+10)
Snakes (6) - N.Y. Yankees (-11), Cincinnati (-11), Philadelphia (-12), Arizona (-15), Texas (-24), Houston (-25)

1999
Ladders (4) - Arizona (+35), Cincinnati (+19), Oakland (+13), Florida (+10)
Snakes (4) - Anaheim (-15), N.Y. Yankees (-16), Chicago Cubs (-23), San Diego (-24),

1998
Ladders (8) - Chicago Cubs (+22), San Diego (+22), N.Y, Yankees (+18), Houston (+18), Boston (+14), Toronto (+12), Texas (+11), St. Louis (+10)
Snakes (6) - Pittsburgh (-10), Montreal (-13), Detroit (-14), Seattle (-14), Baltimore (-19), Florida (-38)


The bolded teams, of course, are your World Series champions. While it seems reasonable enough to find six teams winning it all who had improved by 10+ games that season, it's somewhat startling that three of the last ten world series champions were among that season's handful of teams who declined by ten or more games.

Team              Ladders!    Snakes!    Seasons

Chicago Cubs           4          4        8
Detroit                3          4        7
Arizona                3          3        6
Seattle                3          3        6
LA Angels              3          2        5
St. Louis              3          2        5
Montreal/Washington    2          3        5
Cleveland              3          2        5
San Diego              2          2        4
Texas                  2          2        4
Cincinnati             2          2        4
Kansas City            2          2        4
Milwaukee              2          2        4
Chicago White Sox      2          2        4
Florida                2          1        3
NY Mets                2          1        3 
Houston                2          1        3
Minnesota              2          1        3
Oakland                2          1        3
Toronto                2          1        3
NY Yankees             1          2        3
Boston                 3          0        3
San Francisco          1          1        2
Baltimore              0          2        2
Atlanta                1          1        2
LA Dodgers             1          1        2
Philadelphia           1          1        2
Pittsburgh             1          1        2
Colorado               2          0        2
Tampa Bay              0          0        0

The Devil Rays, of course, remain the perfect model of consistency over the past ten years. Age cannot wither, nor custom stale, their infinite ineptitude.

Anyway - history tells us that each year at least four teams will climb the ladder and another four will slide down the snake.  Tell me who. And we need a tie-breaker. So which team will make the biggest move (up, down, I don't care.)

Hmm. There's a real good chance that won't settle anything, although it will be our first option. We'll have a second tie-breaker! How many games will be saved by B.J. Ryan?

That should do the trick.