Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Draft Blogger Mock Draft
Our friends at Future Redbirds organized a team blog mock draft. So writers of blogs of (most) teams made picks based on who they thought the team they cover would take.

Here's how things shook out and what I think the Jays would do given what happened in the top 16 picks.


The Jays focused on college players in the early drafting tenure of JP Ricciardi. With mixed results, at best, the Jays have more recently gone into the high school ranks, selecting high school players with their first pick the last two seasons (Travis Snider and Kevin Ahrens). However, they've yet to take a high school pitcher high in the draft (and barely low in the draft for that matter) and there's no indication that this will change this year.

Last year's draft, with several extra compensatory picks, featured a nice mix of HS players (3B, Ahrens - round 1; SS, Justin Jackson - round 1s; 2B, John Tolisano - round 2; and OF, Eric Eiland - round 2) and college players (C, JP Arencibia - 1, P; Brett Cecil - 1s; Trystan Magnuson, P - 1s). Given that, a HS hitter or college player is likely this year.

--------

The top 11 went pretty much as I expected, including Brett Wallace who has been projected to the Jays in a few mock drafts.

The A's made the first minor surprise at 12 taking HS P/3B Ethan Martin. The Cards then took LHP pitcher Christian Friedrich. Jemile Weeks was the biggest surprise, going 14th to the Twins. The Dodgers followed with HS RHP Tim Melville and the Brewers took Canadian HSer Brett Lawrie at 16.

Going into the mock draft I was anticipating Brett Wallace or Brett Lawrie being available, but that didn't work out.

So under this scenario there were a few options to consider at #17:
* College pitchers - Shooter Hunt is the best starter available and many relievers are available, but I don't think are in consideration
* College hitters - the elite hitters are gone and the best hitters I think the Jays would be considering are more mid-20s players: 3B Conor Gillaspie and 1B David Cooper
* HS Hitters - Aaron Hicks is probably the most highly rated, and also potentially a pitcher, but I think would be too toolsy for the Jays (Ahrens and Snider were considered polished hitters by the Jays). Zach Collier is also in the mix. Casey Kelly is another consideration but might be a signability concern.
* HS Pitchers - The Jays haven't shown they're willing to take them in the past and I haven't seen anything to think otherwise. At this point Garret Cole would be the only one to consider and he could be a signability player as well.

Of the group of available players Shooter Hunt seems to be the one who best fits the profile of who the Jays would select.

Here's how the entire first round went, with the pickers in parentheses:
  1. Tampa Bay Rays- Buster Posey, C, Florida State (Keith Law)
  2. Pittsburgh Pirates- Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt (Bucco Blog)
  3. Kansas City Royals- Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin GA HS (Royals Authority)
  4. Baltimore Orioles-Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego (group decision)
  5. San Francisco Giants - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina (El Lefty Malo)
  6. Florida Marlins-Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, Calif. (Future Fish)
  7. Cincinnati Reds- Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia (Reds Minor Leagues)
  8. Chicago White Sox- Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, ASU (Zoner Sports)
  9. Washington Nationals - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (Nationals Farm Authority)
  10. Houston Astros - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri (Saber-Scouting)
  11. Texas Rangers - Eric Hosmer, 1b, American Heritage HS, Fla. (Rangers Farm Authority)
  12. Oakland Athletics - Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP, Stephens County HS, Ga. (Athletics Nation)
  13. St. Louis Cardinals - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky (Future Redbirds)
  14. Minnesota Twins - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (SethSpeaks)
  15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS, Wentzville, MO (group decision)
  16. Milwaukee Brewers - Brett Lawrie, 3B/C, Brookwood SS, Langley, B.C. (Brewerfan.net)
  17. Toronto Blue Jays - Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
  18. New York Mets - Jason Castro, CA, Stanford (Hot Foot)
  19. Chicago Cubs - Casey Kelly, SS, Sarsota Florida (HS) (View from the Bleachers)
  20. Seattle Mariners - Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF, Wilson HS, Long Beach, CA (USS Mariner)
  21. Detroit Tigers–Joshua Fields, RHP, Georgia (Future Redbirds)
  22. New York Mets- Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State (Hot Foot)
  23. San Diego Padres- Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU (Ducksnorts)
  24. Philadelphia Phillies- Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno St. (Phuture Phillies)
  25. Colorado Rockies- Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS, Chino Hills, Calif. (Up in the Rockies)
  26. Arizona Diamondbacks-Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest (Beyond the Boxscore)
  27. Minnesota Twins-Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita St. (SethSpeaks)
  28. New York Yankees-Gerrit Cole, RHP, Lutheran HS, Calif. (River Ave. Blues)
  29. Cleveland Indians-Tyson Ross, RHP, California (Bryan Smith)
  30. Boston Red Sox-Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina (The College Baseball Blog)
Posted by Pistol on Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 01:00 PM EDT.
Blogger Mock Draft | 14 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#186243) #
And if you're into mock drafts John Sickels is running his 5 round mock draft today, although that's more who the poster wants to select than who they think the team they're representing will select.
[ Reply to This ]
Jdog - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#186245) #

I'd like to think the Jays would consider Ike Davis if both Wallace and Lawrie are off the board. Pistol if you think the Jays would consier Wallace, what is it about Davis that they wouldn't like....just curious?

 

[ Reply to This ]
Mylegacy - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#186253) #

If we take Shooter Hunt there I'll hunt myself down and shoot me.

Ike Davis - I'm for Ike! Assuming Wallace, Alonso, Hosmer and homeboy Lawrie are gone.

[ Reply to This ]
metafour - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#186255) #
Hunt's stuff has been getting worse as the season has gone on (his velocity has dropped) and he already had control issues.  Not a big Hunt fan.

I wouldn't be surprised if we took a HS pitcher at all.  Its only a matter of time until it happens.  In that scenario I'd take Collier...

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#186274) #
Its only a matter of time until it happens.

I suppose. They keep having these lotteries, and I guess someone actually wins it from time to time. Maybe Ricciardi will fell like having a fling one of these days. But I trust he knows that the odds are still very much against getting any kind of return on your investment.

Yes, there are the success stories - Kazmir, Hamels, Bonderman, Greinke, McGowan, Cain (although not without much adventure and knocking-on-wood along the way.)

And there are other HS pitchers taken in the first round who have seen the major league action as well - Wainwright, Hughes, Moseley, Sowers, Burnett, McBride, Floyd,  Bonser,  Danks, and Billingsley.

But Mike Stodolka, Bobby Keppel, Joe Torres, Mark Phillips, Derek Thompson, Matt Harrington, Matthew Wheatland, Kelly Johnson, J.D. Martin, Daniel Denham, Alan Horne, Colt Griffin, Kris Honel, Mike Jones, Clint Everts, Greg Miller, Christopher Gruler, Roger Whitaker, Adam Miller, Jeffrey Allison, Jay Rainville, Steven Waldrop, David Bailey, Giovany Gonzalez, Timothy Elbert, and Eric Hurley were all first round picks during the same period.

It's all a crap shoot, I guess. But in this particular one, the dice look loaded.

But I dunno. What kind of odds are you supposed to want?
[ Reply to This ]
metafour - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#186289) #
Personally, I could care less about the supposed "success rate."  Its all the same in the end.  For instance, take a look at our success rate with some of our recent highest drafted college pitchers:

Ricky Romero: LOL...no explanation needed.
David Purcey: He's looking good in the minors but its taken him about as long as a HS pitcher would have, in the end he may still only be a relief guy as he basically only has two pitches.
Zach Jackson: Sucking it up with Milwaukee.
Trystan Magnuson: Signability pick but he's still currently sucking it up in Lansing.  Too early to tell
Alan Farina: Struggling some, reliever, too early to tell.
Brandon Magee: Garbage.

Nothing to brag about.



[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#186293) #
I only included high school pitchers taken in the first round from 2000 to 2004. You want me to expand the pool? To four rounds and another two years? The odds will not look better.

And if you only have one first round pick, which is fairly normal, I think you kind of need to care about the success rate.
[ Reply to This ]
Eric Purdy - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#186294) #
I've got no issues with bypassing high school pitchers in the first round (unless there's a guy at your pick your scouts are absolutely in love with) but Ricciardi, Lalonde & co. not taking high school arms later in the draft is borderline indefensible. With how little true talent there's left past the first couple rounds, cutting off half the available remaining talent is remarkably foolish. The cost of scouting those players is worth the reward.

That's the second most important thing that needs to change about our farm system (number one being our dismal international efforts).

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#186308) #
Hicks is interesting.

The dynamics of taking high school pitchers is different than it was when Ricciardi arrived.  The CBA now allows 5 years instead of 4 for the high schooler to remain in the system and off the 40 man, but not eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
[ Reply to This ]
Pistol - Sunday, June 01 2008 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#186326) #

I'd like to think the Jays would consider Ike Davis if both Wallace and Lawrie are off the board. Pistol if you think the Jays would consier Wallace, what is it about Davis that they wouldn't like....just curious?

From this article it sounds like Ike Davis might be the backup plan for the Jays if Wallace is gone.  Just from what I've read it seems like Wallace is in the top tier of the draft (maybe 1-15, with some calling him the best bat) and Davis is in that next tier.

Regarding pitchers..... after the first couple rounds you're going to have a very, very hard time finding a good starter regardless of the pool.  I looked at this last year, but it's worth another look just to see how tough it is.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Sunday, June 01 2008 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#186334) #
The draft doesn't appear particularly deep this year. Does that favor taking a gamble? I think not.
[ Reply to This ]
Pistol - Sunday, June 01 2008 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#186343) #

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3420871&name=law_keith

Keith Law tips..... Lawrie is a possibility to the Reds at 7.  At this point I think there's a small chance (10%?) that the Jays have a shot at him.

He also noted that Jason Castro could go at 8 or 9. 

 

[ Reply to This ]
Marc Hulet - Monday, June 02 2008 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#186361) #
You can ready my recent interview with Brett Lawrie here. Nice guy. Too bad he'll be gone by the time the Jays pick.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Monday, June 02 2008 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#186363) #
No shortage of confidence there!
[ Reply to This ]
Blogger Mock Draft | 14 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.