Which of these young pitchers will have the most success in 2008?
| Matt Cain |  43 (20.38%) |
| Tim Lincecum | 32 (15.17%) |
| Shaun Marcum | 10 (4.74%) |
| Dustin McGowan | 126 (59.72%) |
211 votes | 12 featured comments
No offence to Shaun, I love him... But really... who voted for him?
Well if success is Wins, it's really a crapshoot. I said Cain - and I was thinking about ERA when I said it.
I'll always take the guy who's learned to throw strikes (Lincecum, Marcum or McGowan) over the guy who hasn't (Cain). Of the other three, I picked Lincecum and would have Marcum second, if only because he's had more consistent success. I like McGowan fine and he'll likely have a shade better career than Marcum, but I don't trust him yet.
Craig, I don't really know how you came to your conclusion that Lincecum, McGowan and Marcum have learned how to throw strikes, but that Cain has not. Here are their BB/9 rates for last season.
Marcum - 2.8 BB/9
McGowan - 3.2 BB/9
Cain - 3.6 BB/9
Lincecum - 4.0 BB/9
It's clear that Marcum has the best command in the group, and that McGowan has a pretty firm grasp on the strike zone at this point as well. Cain has shown improvement in his command since reaching the Majors (4.1 BB/9 in 2006). While his command is not yet excellent, I think that it is safe to say that he has "learned to throw strikes" more so than Lincecum has. Lincecum did have a much better rate while in the minors (3.3 BB/9), but this must be discounted since he was a dominating college product that was simply toying with inferior minor league hitters. Meanwhile, in college his college career control was a major bugaboo for Lincecum. He posted BB rates of 6.6 BB/9, 6.1 BB/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in his three years at Washington.
In terms of command, I would rank the four pitchers in this order: Marcum, McGowan, Cain, Lincecum. That being said, I still picked Lincecum to have the most success next year. Command can be learned (and frequently is). Natural ability, however, cannot. Lincecum, I believe, has the most raw ability of anyone in this group, with Cain and McGowan close behind him. Marcum, with his high 80's fastball and terrifying HR rates, doesn't really belong in this group.
Marcum - 2.8 BB/9
McGowan - 3.2 BB/9
Cain - 3.6 BB/9
Lincecum - 4.0 BB/9
It's clear that Marcum has the best command in the group, and that McGowan has a pretty firm grasp on the strike zone at this point as well. Cain has shown improvement in his command since reaching the Majors (4.1 BB/9 in 2006). While his command is not yet excellent, I think that it is safe to say that he has "learned to throw strikes" more so than Lincecum has. Lincecum did have a much better rate while in the minors (3.3 BB/9), but this must be discounted since he was a dominating college product that was simply toying with inferior minor league hitters. Meanwhile, in college his college career control was a major bugaboo for Lincecum. He posted BB rates of 6.6 BB/9, 6.1 BB/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in his three years at Washington.
In terms of command, I would rank the four pitchers in this order: Marcum, McGowan, Cain, Lincecum. That being said, I still picked Lincecum to have the most success next year. Command can be learned (and frequently is). Natural ability, however, cannot. Lincecum, I believe, has the most raw ability of anyone in this group, with Cain and McGowan close behind him. Marcum, with his high 80's fastball and terrifying HR rates, doesn't really belong in this group.
All four are likely to have success, if healthy. Marcum is the one most likely to be healthy enough to throw 170 innings in 2008, in my opinion.
If the question is "who could blow away the league?", the answer would be LIncecum.
If the question is "who could blow away the league?", the answer would be LIncecum.
Not saying that Cain walks a lot of guys, just that he doesn't throw strikes. These are two different things. Cain works deep into counts and doesn't trust his stuff - he goes 2-1 too much and 1-2 not enough, and hasn't learned to finish guys off early. McGowan frustrates me similarly, although he's improved a lot.
Fair enough Craig, although I don't really share your opinion. While falling behind hitters obviously isn't a good thing, I tend to believe that it is only a real problem when it begins to have an effect on performance. Marcum was less effective last year than both Cain and McGowan (by VORP, and a number of other measures), and only slightly more effective than Lincecum. Maybe his better control allows him to last longer into each of his starts, but the numbers don't really bear that out (at least for last season).
On the other hand, I see one huge difference between these 4 pitchers. Here are their HR rates for last season:
Lincecum - 0.74 HR/9
Cain - 0.63 HR/9
Marcum - 1.53 HR/9
McGowan - 0.74 HR/9
One of these things are not like the other. While Lincecum and Cain do benefit from playing in a pitcher's park in the weaker league, this is a HUGE difference. And it is not a fluke, either. Marcum posted an even higher rate in 2006 (1.61 HR/9), and had rates over 1 consistently in AAA. His career rate is basically the same as Josh Towers, and we all know how his past few seasons have gone. He has a big problem with the longball, one that he was able to get away with last season because he was lucky enough to allow a lot of them with no one on base. Next year, he might not be so lucky.
Out of these four guys, Marcum is:
- the oldest (although only a few months older than McGowan)
- has the best command
- has a major HR problem
- allows the most Hits/9 (almost 1 full hit more than the next lowest in the group last season)
- has the worst stuff (and by a LARGE margin, according to all scouting reports, including Keith Law, who doesn't think that he is anything more than a 4/5 starter)
Don't get me wrong - I like Marcum, and I think he's going to be a solid #3 or #4 starter for the next few years. But anybody saying that the Marcum is likely to have the best season is either misinformed, or making an emotional decision, since there is very little objective evidence that suggests that he is the best of these 4 starters. He COULD be the best starter of the four next season, but I COULD become a rock star and marry a supermodel. Neither is all that likely, and there isn't much evidence to suggest either.
Sure, he seems like a "gamer", and McGowan can be frustrating at times, but thats not really anything. Everything else being equal, that would be somewhat meaningful. But everything else is NOT equal, and clearly so.
Sorry, I kinda ended up getting off topic. But as I mentioned in another thread, the consistent overrating of Marcum and underrating of McGowan by Jays fans really bothers me. Although, looking at the current results of this poll, that overrating/underrating might not have been as consistent as I originally thought.
On the other hand, I see one huge difference between these 4 pitchers. Here are their HR rates for last season:
Lincecum - 0.74 HR/9
Cain - 0.63 HR/9
Marcum - 1.53 HR/9
McGowan - 0.74 HR/9
One of these things are not like the other. While Lincecum and Cain do benefit from playing in a pitcher's park in the weaker league, this is a HUGE difference. And it is not a fluke, either. Marcum posted an even higher rate in 2006 (1.61 HR/9), and had rates over 1 consistently in AAA. His career rate is basically the same as Josh Towers, and we all know how his past few seasons have gone. He has a big problem with the longball, one that he was able to get away with last season because he was lucky enough to allow a lot of them with no one on base. Next year, he might not be so lucky.
Out of these four guys, Marcum is:
- the oldest (although only a few months older than McGowan)
- has the best command
- has a major HR problem
- allows the most Hits/9 (almost 1 full hit more than the next lowest in the group last season)
- has the worst stuff (and by a LARGE margin, according to all scouting reports, including Keith Law, who doesn't think that he is anything more than a 4/5 starter)
Don't get me wrong - I like Marcum, and I think he's going to be a solid #3 or #4 starter for the next few years. But anybody saying that the Marcum is likely to have the best season is either misinformed, or making an emotional decision, since there is very little objective evidence that suggests that he is the best of these 4 starters. He COULD be the best starter of the four next season, but I COULD become a rock star and marry a supermodel. Neither is all that likely, and there isn't much evidence to suggest either.
Sure, he seems like a "gamer", and McGowan can be frustrating at times, but thats not really anything. Everything else being equal, that would be somewhat meaningful. But everything else is NOT equal, and clearly so.
Sorry, I kinda ended up getting off topic. But as I mentioned in another thread, the consistent overrating of Marcum and underrating of McGowan by Jays fans really bothers me. Although, looking at the current results of this poll, that overrating/underrating might not have been as consistent as I originally thought.
I realize Marcum had a high HR/9, etc, etc, but one thing about Marcum is that I believe he lead the MLB in HRs per hit, which to be honest, seems a little flukey. That rate should be lower, given the rest of his peripherals.
I see McGowan's running away with the vote. What does everyone see Dusty doing next season. I personally think he just needs some consistancy because he had some awful starts last year.
I see McGowan putting up numbers similar to his second half last year; an ERA around 3.70, around 8 Ks an inning, possibly one of the best ten starters in the league, possibly best on the team. I see him making 30 starts. And if he gets destroyed once in a while, I'm fine with that (it's better to have three very good starts and a stinker than 4 mediocre starts)
But note that this is bascially how Matt Cain already did last year. Cain had "one of those years" in the win-loss columns, somehow going 7-16 despite doing his job very well (i.e., preventing the other team from scoring), reaching 200 innings with a 3.65 ERA, and only allowing 3 unearned runs to boot. He's also the youngest of the four. I think any of the four could be best next year, with we Jays fans understandably favouring McGowan, and Marcum understandably rated the lowest.
But note that this is bascially how Matt Cain already did last year. Cain had "one of those years" in the win-loss columns, somehow going 7-16 despite doing his job very well (i.e., preventing the other team from scoring), reaching 200 innings with a 3.65 ERA, and only allowing 3 unearned runs to boot. He's also the youngest of the four. I think any of the four could be best next year, with we Jays fans understandably favouring McGowan, and Marcum understandably rated the lowest.
In the context of park and league, I see McGowan leading this group. I think Cain will be a close second, and I would prefer him to Lincecum if we are giving up Rios.