Almost impossible for any of them to reach 300 wins.

I chose Felix, but aside from that I'd say Buehrle has the best chance out of that group... rest of them are just a little too old.

What about C.C. Sabathia? 25 years old, 69 wins through 2005, his age-24 year. By comparison, none of Clemens, Seaver or Maddux were over 60 at that age (thank you, Gleeman). I don't think he'll make it, but he's more likely than anyone on here, I think.

If you assume each pitcher pitches as well as they have on average (baseball reference.com), until the age of 40, here are their linear extrapolations:

Mulder: 18 wins/year average. 28 years old. 13 X 18= 234 (PLUS 99) = 333........But he won't pitch 18 wins per year until 40.

Buherle: 15 wins/year. 27 years old. 14 X 15 (PLUS 88) = 298.....Perhaps the most realistic extrapolation, but still 2 games short, and still unlikely.

Carpenter: 14 wins/year. 31 years old. 10 X 14 (PLUS 87) = 227

Oswalt: 18 wins/year. 28 years old. 13 X 18 (PLUS 86) = 320. 18 wins a year is a lot, but he has the youth and talent.

Halladay: 15 (wins) X 12 (more years) + 81 = 261

Wood. Garland.

Santana: 27 years old. Note: here I'll combine his first two years as starter as one, giving him an approximately 18 win/year average. Therefore. 351.

Hernandez: linear thought experiment won't work.

So the order is: Santana (351), Mulder (333), Oswalt (320), Buehrle (298), Halladay (261), Carpenter (227).....My one big caveat is that track record does not predict future prediction. EX: Carpenter, his last two years he's averaged 18 wins/year, and that's more likely what we'll see the next few years than his 14 win/year over his whole career. AJ and Ben Sheets will be .500 pitchers, and C.C. Sabathia I don't think has the consistency to maintain his rate.

Almost impossible for any of them to reach 300 wins.

You know, being a former Baseball Digest subscriber [when I was like 10 to 14 years old], I remember multiple articles forecasting that there would never be another 300 game winner; this was after Nolan Ryan reached the milestone.

Well, since then Clemens and Maddux have reached it with Glavine a probable to get there.  For the record, I think that Pedro will make it too, as he has shown that he can dominate without his overpowering velocity of old.

My point is that it has always been hard to get to 300, but there will be special pitchers that make it.  That said, the only way any of these pitchers make it to 300 is if they are exceptionally healthy and effective for 18 seasons or so, and to predict who will make it is a shot in the dark.  My best guess is Buerhle as he's a lefty with good stuff who I could see aging very well like Moyer or Maddux; my wish would be Halladay.

js_magloire -- I can see not doing Wood, given his injury trouble and rumors of a bullpen move, but am not sure why you skipped over Jon Garland. If you do the same combination of the first two years you did for Santana, that puts him at 13 wins/year (which seems low after his 18-win breakout of last year), and he is at the following:

Garland: 13 wins/year average. 25 years old. 15 X 13 = 195 (PLUS 66 through last season) = 261

... or tied with Halladay, who has shown greater injury proneness, is with a team that has been less successful to date, and is older. I think Garland has as good a chance as anyone on the list, though I went with Santana, myself.