Who would you rather have on your team for the next five years? (Assume their salaries are identical, so money isn't an issue.)
Yu Darvish | 52 (75.36%) |
C.J. Wilson | 15 (21.74%) |
They are both below replacement level. | 2 (2.90%) |
Wilson is likely to be a very good pitcher, but the risk of injury is far from negligible in his case. If you wanted the pitcher most likely to be throwing 200 innings 2 years from now, the answer would probably be Buehrle.
As the site's designated ranger-follower, I LOVE this question. And here you go .... as a dice-rolling GM, I take Darvish, no question, no regrets. I'd love to have both, obviously. But consider the range of potential results.
Wilson, worst case -- injury, not unlikely, two and a half good season, lots of DL time., BEST possible case, 80-90 wins, .600 winning percentage, several playoff starts.
Darvish, worst case -- somewhere between Matsuzaka and Nomo, difficulty adjusting to culture shift, wildly overpaid third starter, but he's not Chan Ho Park II. BEST case -- 100 wins, three Cy Young Awards, multiple World Series starts and wins.
I think both will end up somewhere in the middle of the extremes listed, probably have similar overall numbers, both cost a lot, and in the end, roll sixes on the possible higher upside and the international marketing bonanza.
I figured I'd be in the minority here, was just curious how one-sided the poll would turn out. This is about what I expected.
I have a lot of faith in Jon Daniels and co., though. If they scouted Darvish and preferred him to Wilson, I'm going with Yu.