Billy Wagner just notched his 300th career save. Which of these under-35 active pitchers will retire with the most saves? (Current age and career save total through 7/4 shown.) Will any catch Trevor Hoffman (456)?
| Billy Wagner(34, 300) |  86 (50.89%) |
| Armando Benitez (33, 271) | 1 (0.59%) |
| Jason Isringhausen (33, 240) | 3 (1.78%) |
| Eric Gagne (30, 161) | 2 (1.18%) |
| Joe Nathan (31, 103) | 10 (5.92%) |
| Brad Lidge (29, 92) | 10 (5.92%) |
| B.J. Ryan (30, 64) | 12 (7.10%) |
| Bobby Jenks (25, 49) | 23 (13.61%) |
| Jon Papelbon (25, 25) | 22 (13.02%) |
169 votes | 9 featured comments
I said Nathan, but I should change my vote to Wagner. Nathan is about 100 saves behind Wagner's pace.
No one is going to catch Hoffman. Hoffman is a true pitcher, most of these guys just have really good stuff. Give these guys a 89mph fastball and see how far they will go as a closer. No one will have the longevity of Hoffman out of this group.
Closing is easier on the arm than starting (i.e. Smoltz), but of course not without it's risks as well (i.e. Gagne, Duane Ward). Randy Myers, who briefly sucked and picked up 28 saves in Toronto, managed to average about 35 saves a year for a 7 year stretch. Hoffman has averaged about 40 saves a year for the last 10 years (throwing out his missed year). Wagner and Benitez are both about 1 year behind Hoffman's pace at this point, even accounting for the missed year by Hoffman. But for the young guys, average 35 saves a year, and they beat out Hoffman.
So for the young guys, it's a question of will either stay as a closer (Papelbon was supposed to start eventually, as I recall), healthy, and on decent teams. I wouldn't expect Papelbon or Jenks in particular to catch Hoffman, but someone probably will eventually be a career long closer, from a fairly young age, (Hoffman started at age 26), and run up a huge total, like the homerun record (since year-to-year scale is about the same). Maybe Huston Street, with 42 before his 23 birthday, will do it. He only needs to average 30 a year, and he's past Hoffman at age 38. Or Chris Ray for the Orioles (20 at the age of 23). Hoffman, of course, might run up it up to 600 or so, which would make it harder, obviously. If teams are going to continue using a closer like they have been for the last 20 years, some teams will eventually stop finding them on the starter scrap heap and develop them younger, like the A's have done with Street.
And sorry B.J., unless you average 50 saves a year for 5 years (which would be awesome), you're not going to make it.
So for the young guys, it's a question of will either stay as a closer (Papelbon was supposed to start eventually, as I recall), healthy, and on decent teams. I wouldn't expect Papelbon or Jenks in particular to catch Hoffman, but someone probably will eventually be a career long closer, from a fairly young age, (Hoffman started at age 26), and run up a huge total, like the homerun record (since year-to-year scale is about the same). Maybe Huston Street, with 42 before his 23 birthday, will do it. He only needs to average 30 a year, and he's past Hoffman at age 38. Or Chris Ray for the Orioles (20 at the age of 23). Hoffman, of course, might run up it up to 600 or so, which would make it harder, obviously. If teams are going to continue using a closer like they have been for the last 20 years, some teams will eventually stop finding them on the starter scrap heap and develop them younger, like the A's have done with Street.
And sorry B.J., unless you average 50 saves a year for 5 years (which would be awesome), you're not going to make it.
I hate to say it, A-Web, but coming out of the pen is NOT easier on the arm than starting. Even Smoltz has said as much. The stress associated with throwing one or two innings full-tilt three or four times a week is quite a bit more than throwing seven (you hope) innings every fifth day. Starters will maintain a consistent level energy use, pacing themselves for the long haul. Granted, there are moments when every starter will reach back for a little more, but that is nothing compared to the incredible level of energy and strain put on a closer's arm every pitch. And then they might have to go do it all over again tomorrow.
And Papelbon will be a starter when Hansen is ready for The Show, so he's out as well.
True, I only say relieving is easier on the arm because it seemed to me it should be, not because I know of a study showing it to be. But not every reliever throws 100% all the time, either. Like Hoffman, for instance. And lots of relievers put together long healthy stretches. There was an article I read today saying relieving is easier, but it didn't deal with injuries. Most likely there are some pitchers which are natural "sprinters", some "marathoners". Will teams ever figure out a way to tell them apart aside from just trying them out in certain roles? I'd think they would at least make a big effort, either medical of statistical.
I still think, eventually, someone will be a closer for 15-20 years, and roll up a huge number of saves. Unless the closer thing goes out of style at some point, which is possible too.
I still think, eventually, someone will be a closer for 15-20 years, and roll up a huge number of saves. Unless the closer thing goes out of style at some point, which is possible too.
I think you might be right, but this era of super specialization and enormous contracts will probably do nothing more than invent the "sixth inning guy." As someone who has done both relieve and start, I can say that I would rather start a second game on two days rest than pitch four straight days in relief.
It seems to me that saves is a contrived, artificial, and meaningless
stat making it very difficult and somewhat pointless to care who gets a lot and who
doesn't.
BJ Ryan 23 saves (0.86 ERA) just edging out Todd Jones' 22 saves and his 6.00 ERA.
In the NL saves race we have Isringhausen (27 BB in 36 IP) in the lead with 25; followed by Turnbow (4.71 ERA) at 23. Brad Lidge (21 BB/ 39 IP - 5.35 ERA) is a strong 4th with 20.
Let's get rid of the "SAVE". Then maybe managers could manage their bullpen with their brains rather than simply determining whether a "save situation" exists or not.
BJ Ryan 23 saves (0.86 ERA) just edging out Todd Jones' 22 saves and his 6.00 ERA.
In the NL saves race we have Isringhausen (27 BB in 36 IP) in the lead with 25; followed by Turnbow (4.71 ERA) at 23. Brad Lidge (21 BB/ 39 IP - 5.35 ERA) is a strong 4th with 20.
Let's get rid of the "SAVE". Then maybe managers could manage their bullpen with their brains rather than simply determining whether a "save situation" exists or not.
While we're at it, let's get rid of the "WIN" and the "RBI". Who cares who brings in runs or gets credit for the win. The important thing is that runs came in and the game was won, not who got credit.