Assuming he remains healthy and productive through 2011, the Jays should be willing to offer Albert Pujols at most:
| $200 million |  21 (10.99%) |
| $225 million | 14 (7.33%) |
| $250 million | 27 (14.14%) |
| $275 million | 14 (7.33%) |
| $300 million | 15 (7.85%) |
| $325 million | 6 (3.14%) |
| Whatever he wants | 32 (16.75%) |
| Less than $200 million | 27 (14.14%) |
| Pujols' value is negative and the Jays should avoid him altogether. | 35 (18.32%) |
191 votes | 19 featured comments
I didn't bother with specific choices below $200 because there's no way he makes less than that, unless he signs a relatively short-term contract.
And I didn't bother with years because ultimately what you're paying for is a few great seasons. Whether you get two years of latter-day Todd Helton output in 2020 and 2021 or not doesn't matter all that much, to my mind.
Also, I meant the comedy option to mean "Pujols is below replacement level." My bad. I guess it is worthwhile to have a general disgust option.
If I was AA I'd have a wee peek at Mr Pujols - but I wouldn't go after him with a full court press. I actually don't think he's a serious fit. Let the Yankees and Red Sox obscenely overpay him for the last 4 or 5 years of his 10 year contract - 'cause don't kid yourself - someone is going to give him a 10 - 300 contract (or near enough). Seriously - how old is he actually? I say cut off an arm and count the rings before you break the Piggy Bank.
IF AA goes after him - it means he thinks Albert is the missing piece to give us 5 years of serious contention...but even then...man... that next 5 years are going to be an expensive hangover.
IF AA goes after him - it means he thinks Albert is the missing piece to give us 5 years of serious contention...but even then...man... that next 5 years are going to be an expensive hangover.
Let the Yankees and Red Sox obscenely overpay him
Would they even get involved in the bidding? They've both made long-term commitments at his position to a couple of pretty decent players who are both younger than Pujols.
Would they even get involved in the bidding? They've both made long-term commitments at his position to a couple of pretty decent players who are both younger than Pujols.
What I would want to do is something like 5 years @ $35 million per with 2 player options at $35 million per triggered by 550 PAs in the year prior. I have no idea whether that would be enough to be competitive, or whether that would qualify as "less than $200 million" or "250 million" for this purpose.
After age 31, there is a decent chance that he might only have 2 good years left (like Foxx, Gehrig and Ott).
Mike I like that idea. IF it would fly.
However, his real age has been questioned for so long - I'm just real, real nervous.
However, his real age has been questioned for so long - I'm just real, real nervous.
I voted that Pujols is negative value.
IMO AA is very generous in sharing his thoughts when he wants to, but when he does not want to tell he keeps silent or skillfully does not share.
Since Pujols is in J Werth & A Gonzales territory then as AA has said he will only make that type of deal if available, the year after the Jays make the playoffs or win the World Series. I do not think being close counts.
IMO AA is very generous in sharing his thoughts when he wants to, but when he does not want to tell he keeps silent or skillfully does not share.
Since Pujols is in J Werth & A Gonzales territory then as AA has said he will only make that type of deal if available, the year after the Jays make the playoffs or win the World Series. I do not think being close counts.
I think you pay a player like Pujols whatever he wants, for up to 10 years. Money is money, and Rogers is flush with it.
Aside from the WAR-type productions vs money argument (7 WAR * 5M per war is $35m value btw), Pujols would put the Jays back on the map in Toronto.
He would create a huge buzz in this city - compounded by the growing buzz AA has begun. Let's say the team improves by 5-7 wins over the next 5 years due only to Pujols (he's been an 7-10 WAR player), attendance WILL rise. We can make a modest estimation of 5,000 more butts in blue seats per game.
Assuming an average ticket price of $35 (correct if my math is wrong here, just guessing), 5,000 extra tickets per game will bring in roughly $14,000,000 in revenue. Then factor in concessions, parking and of course, Pujols jerseys (the hottest new jersey in town!).
Of course, Rogers will eat most of that cash the last 2-3 years, but that's the price you pay! We've done it before (how's it going, My Ryan?)
In terms of predicting on field production, whether he's 31 or 33, he's in terrific shape. He still plays top 10 1B defense. He should be able to stick at 1st until 36-37, then slowly transition to the DH position.
Offensively, I really don't see a sudden drop. Power. Patience. High average. Athletic, solid and strong build. Mentioning guys who played in the 50's with beer guts (and Gerhig who, you know, got sick ;)) as examples of likely decline is perhaps not very relevant. Proven and suspected roiders aside, Frank Thomas hit 38 bombs at 38. Carlos Delgado hit 38 at 36. Mike Schmidt hit 133 HRs after the age of 35. The precedent for big production into an elite player's 30s (roids aside) is there.
He has a career OPS of 1.074 in Inter League play (1.050 overall!)
In terms of catastrophic injury (which insurance would pick up anyway), I can't argue against his health. How many games has he missed in 10+ years?
People, the reason the Yankees are the Yankees is because they go after the Pujols' of this world when they are available. Sure, sometimes they miss badly, but they also have what, 27 WS titles?
It's always risky to go all in, but to win the big prize, you have make the leap.
Anyway, just my 2 pennies
Aside from the WAR-type productions vs money argument (7 WAR * 5M per war is $35m value btw), Pujols would put the Jays back on the map in Toronto.
He would create a huge buzz in this city - compounded by the growing buzz AA has begun. Let's say the team improves by 5-7 wins over the next 5 years due only to Pujols (he's been an 7-10 WAR player), attendance WILL rise. We can make a modest estimation of 5,000 more butts in blue seats per game.
Assuming an average ticket price of $35 (correct if my math is wrong here, just guessing), 5,000 extra tickets per game will bring in roughly $14,000,000 in revenue. Then factor in concessions, parking and of course, Pujols jerseys (the hottest new jersey in town!).
Of course, Rogers will eat most of that cash the last 2-3 years, but that's the price you pay! We've done it before (how's it going, My Ryan?)
In terms of predicting on field production, whether he's 31 or 33, he's in terrific shape. He still plays top 10 1B defense. He should be able to stick at 1st until 36-37, then slowly transition to the DH position.
Offensively, I really don't see a sudden drop. Power. Patience. High average. Athletic, solid and strong build. Mentioning guys who played in the 50's with beer guts (and Gerhig who, you know, got sick ;)) as examples of likely decline is perhaps not very relevant. Proven and suspected roiders aside, Frank Thomas hit 38 bombs at 38. Carlos Delgado hit 38 at 36. Mike Schmidt hit 133 HRs after the age of 35. The precedent for big production into an elite player's 30s (roids aside) is there.
He has a career OPS of 1.074 in Inter League play (1.050 overall!)
In terms of catastrophic injury (which insurance would pick up anyway), I can't argue against his health. How many games has he missed in 10+ years?
People, the reason the Yankees are the Yankees is because they go after the Pujols' of this world when they are available. Sure, sometimes they miss badly, but they also have what, 27 WS titles?
It's always risky to go all in, but to win the big prize, you have make the leap.
Anyway, just my 2 pennies
"He would create a huge buzz in this city"
This, I think, is where the argument for signing Pujols breaks down. Has there been any evidence that *any* baseball player will draw fans in Toronto? Roy Halladay was one of the best pitchers in baseball for years, but you wouldn't know it from the attendance. Players like Delgado & Wells were All-Stars, but largely got run out of town by surly fans.
Pujols' value is based on two factors: First, he's a really, really great player, will probably continue to be one for several years. That's a constant for any team (though I suppose one could hypothesize a dropoff if he moved from the NL Central to the AL East)
Second is that he's a big star. That's a harder value to nail down. He's probably worth the most to St. Louis in that respect. In markets with a big baseball fanbase - Chicago, LA, New York, etc. - he'd be the big fish in the big pond. But I'm not sure how well that translates to Toronto. Does the casual fan in Toronto - and, let's face it, that's most people - even know who Albert Pujols is?
If the Jays could sign Pujols, that would be awesome. But he's going to be worth more to other teams, and they're going to pay accordingly.
This, I think, is where the argument for signing Pujols breaks down. Has there been any evidence that *any* baseball player will draw fans in Toronto? Roy Halladay was one of the best pitchers in baseball for years, but you wouldn't know it from the attendance. Players like Delgado & Wells were All-Stars, but largely got run out of town by surly fans.
Pujols' value is based on two factors: First, he's a really, really great player, will probably continue to be one for several years. That's a constant for any team (though I suppose one could hypothesize a dropoff if he moved from the NL Central to the AL East)
Second is that he's a big star. That's a harder value to nail down. He's probably worth the most to St. Louis in that respect. In markets with a big baseball fanbase - Chicago, LA, New York, etc. - he'd be the big fish in the big pond. But I'm not sure how well that translates to Toronto. Does the casual fan in Toronto - and, let's face it, that's most people - even know who Albert Pujols is?
If the Jays could sign Pujols, that would be awesome. But he's going to be worth more to other teams, and they're going to pay accordingly.
I'd go 8 years without much hesitation, I'd go 10 if i could agree on a front-loaded contract (as I've discussed before)
If he wants a record, then 10/280, for instance for the highest total and highest AAV.
All the potential for age decline is true - but also applied to A-Rod. if you want to sign the best, you have to pay the best and take that chance.
It's not like we can't afford it.
If he wants a record, then 10/280, for instance for the highest total and highest AAV.
All the potential for age decline is true - but also applied to A-Rod. if you want to sign the best, you have to pay the best and take that chance.
It's not like we can't afford it.
"I'm willing to pay... anything."
(chair spins around, revealing the Devil) "Anything?"
(chair spins around, revealing the Devil) "Anything?"
A-Rod's contract is interesting - it peaked at $32M/year in 2009 and 2010, and gradually declines to $20M in 2016 and 2017, presumably making his declining years less of an albatross to the club.
I love Pujols, but I don't see him working for the Jays. He's an absolutely brilliant player who will likely be worth it for the first 3-5 years of the contract (I have no doubt he's going to get 8-10 years), at which point he'll likely be in decline and massively overpaid. The Jays would be much better off continuing to pile up talented prospects, a la Andrew Friedman, and possibly dealing some of them when the iron is hot - i.e., when someone like Adrian Gonzalez comes along (I think A-Gon is going to rake this year - I wouldn't put it past him to win the AL MVP).
I love Pujols, but I don't see him working for the Jays. He's an absolutely brilliant player who will likely be worth it for the first 3-5 years of the contract (I have no doubt he's going to get 8-10 years), at which point he'll likely be in decline and massively overpaid. The Jays would be much better off continuing to pile up talented prospects, a la Andrew Friedman, and possibly dealing some of them when the iron is hot - i.e., when someone like Adrian Gonzalez comes along (I think A-Gon is going to rake this year - I wouldn't put it past him to win the AL MVP).
I'm a big no here -- not that it's the least bit relevant because there's not way on god's green earth that the blue jays will go after the big P -- but with the way things are now in Toronto (vs 92-92) we don't win trying to be the Yankees. We win trying to be Tampa or Oakland or Minnesota or the Blue Jays of 1985. Remember Roger Clemens? Great player -- best in the league. What was our record when he was in town? Plus, if he gets injured -- say goodbye to about 5 or 6 seasons. Not worth it. Plus it's more fun to cheer for David than Goliath.
Roy Halladay was one of the best pitchers in baseball for years, but you wouldn't know it from the attendance. Players like Delgado & Wells were All-Stars, but largely got run out of town by surly fans.
I would make two observations about that. First is that I don't think *pitchers* specifically do much to create buzz or help attendance. They only pitch every fifth day and when you buy your ticket, unless you buy it on game day, you're never completely sure who you're going to see.
My second observation is that the Toronto sports market (IMHO) is envious. They only want *the best*, especially if the player earned his reputation somewhere outside of Toronto (I figure this is because they hate being considered biased). The flip-side of this is a tendency to under-value players who are all-stars but not *the best*, especially if they played most of their careers in Toronto (ie Delgado, Sundin).
So all that is to say that I think Pujols, because he is among the very best in the game, is not a homegrown player, and is not a pitcher, would create a large buzz around the Jays.
I would make two observations about that. First is that I don't think *pitchers* specifically do much to create buzz or help attendance. They only pitch every fifth day and when you buy your ticket, unless you buy it on game day, you're never completely sure who you're going to see.
My second observation is that the Toronto sports market (IMHO) is envious. They only want *the best*, especially if the player earned his reputation somewhere outside of Toronto (I figure this is because they hate being considered biased). The flip-side of this is a tendency to under-value players who are all-stars but not *the best*, especially if they played most of their careers in Toronto (ie Delgado, Sundin).
So all that is to say that I think Pujols, because he is among the very best in the game, is not a homegrown player, and is not a pitcher, would create a large buzz around the Jays.
Plus it's more fun to cheer for David than Goliath.
This is only held to be remotely true in towns where David lives.
My last two places of residence have been home to the New York Yankees and the Dallas Cowboys. (whoi I hate, incdientally). Their fans have PLENTY of fun rooting for the next ring.
I voted $200 mil as over 7 years it would be $28.5 which would pretty much be the record per year. Given I wouldn't want to commit beyond 5 years, that would mean you pay $40 mil per year for 5 with the bonus of 2 more years for free if he is healthy. As a team you'd have to be thinking that way and decide if he is worth it.
Post 2011 we'll know a lot more. If A) Pujols is solid/healthy and B) the Jays still have a hole at DH or 1B (ie: Lind or Encarnacion flop) and C) the Jays crack 90 wins then Pujols could be a final piece of a puzzle and suddenly his value skyrockets to the Jays. Once you are close to the playoffs (95 wins) each marginal win is worth more than they are when you are dancing around the 80 win mark.
We all know if the Jays become playoff contenders the fans/viewers will come out in force, especially with the horrid Leafs/Raptors not providing any competition. Pujols on his own won't draw flies, but Pujols plus a playoff appearance? That could be worth $40 mil a year for the Jays over the next 5 years to get over the hump. It would be an extreme risk for AA, but the payoff could also be extreme.
Of course, if any of those 3 conditions are not met, then there is no chance imo.
Post 2011 we'll know a lot more. If A) Pujols is solid/healthy and B) the Jays still have a hole at DH or 1B (ie: Lind or Encarnacion flop) and C) the Jays crack 90 wins then Pujols could be a final piece of a puzzle and suddenly his value skyrockets to the Jays. Once you are close to the playoffs (95 wins) each marginal win is worth more than they are when you are dancing around the 80 win mark.
We all know if the Jays become playoff contenders the fans/viewers will come out in force, especially with the horrid Leafs/Raptors not providing any competition. Pujols on his own won't draw flies, but Pujols plus a playoff appearance? That could be worth $40 mil a year for the Jays over the next 5 years to get over the hump. It would be an extreme risk for AA, but the payoff could also be extreme.
Of course, if any of those 3 conditions are not met, then there is no chance imo.
So - the Spankies and Red Sox are both set at first.... Maybe the Dodgers (if the divorce ever goes through) the Mets (if Madoff doesn't bankrupt the team first) the Pirates (if it's a frosty Friday in hell) or - what I think - the Nationals are the highest bidder.
When that happens might not the Great Man say "bullocks" or some such manly oath and take AA's 7 year 210 million offer just to play ball on a real team - in a real division - in a real 9 man league (not a seven man league with an automatic walk followed by an automatic out)?
IF he'll consider it - I'll even offer to throw in a very special bottle of 18 year old fire water to sweeten the pot.
When that happens might not the Great Man say "bullocks" or some such manly oath and take AA's 7 year 210 million offer just to play ball on a real team - in a real division - in a real 9 man league (not a seven man league with an automatic walk followed by an automatic out)?
IF he'll consider it - I'll even offer to throw in a very special bottle of 18 year old fire water to sweeten the pot.
Or maybe the Jays win by being 2/3 Oakland / Tampa and 1/3 Boston / New York. Develop from within as much as possible and go after the top tier of free agents. And by that I mean the real top tier, not guys like Vernon or Crawford.