Which SS is least likely to end up in the Hall of Fame?
| Julio Franco |  92 (39.66%) |
| Nomar Garciaparra | 90 (38.79%) |
| Derek Jeter | 6 (2.59%) |
| Barry Larkin | 28 (12.07%) |
| Alex Rodriguez | 7 (3.02%) |
| Miguel Tejada | 9 (3.88%) |
I voted for Garciaparra as leaving Boston right before they won the WS, having major injuries, moving to first base all will hurt his chances - especially the injuries - unless he has a major late career bump up.
What surprises me is how many seem to feel Larkin won't make it. He was the premier NL shortstop for about a decade imo with a solid defensive rep and solid offensive rep and no real negatives on his resume plus a WS win and an MVP award. Of course, I felt that Trammell and Whittaker were locks too.
John, I voted for Larkin, though it pained me to do so, living in Ohio during his prime (the ring, the MVP, all that) -- and I also thought of both him and Trammell as locks for the HOF.
But the poll is on likelihood, not deservedness, and it is the Hall of Fame and I think of all those listed, Larkin is clearly the least famous. Least notorious. Least likely to get past the first ballot, honestly. As a two-way player, I think he was clearly better than everyone on the list except possibly Jeter; he lags behind A-Rod offensively, of course, but trumps him defensively.
Unlike the Reds of the 70s (Rose, Morgan, Perez, Bench, etc.), the Reds of the 90s got very little publicity, even during the "Hunt for a Reds October" year of 1990. This is a case where PR -- Fame -- or more specifically, lack of it, will hurt the chances of someone I think belongs in Cooperstown.
Who Age H HR Avg All-Stars Gold Gloves MVP
Franco 48 2566 172 299 3 - -
Garciaparra 33 1537 211 318 6 - -
Jeter 33 2150 183 317 7 3 -
Larkin -- 2340 198 295 12 3 1
Rodriguez 31 2067 464 305 10 2 2
Tejada 31 1584 240 286 4 - 1
Age is for the 2007 season. Larkin is HOF elgible for the vote to be held in the winter of 2009 and will be against Roberto Alomar, Galarraga, Edgar Martinez, Todd Zeile and Robin Ventura. Plus any holdovers from past years. A fairly weak class with Alomar the only other guy likely to get in (Martinez was a DH too long, has fewer hits than Larkin which should kill him in voters minds, the others were good but not HOF good).
The class from the year before had Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Matt Williams, David Cone. Just Henderson is a lock with the other 3 being 'hall of very good' guys.
The class for '07 (next winter)? Tim Raines, Chuck Finley, and that is about it for noteworthy guys. Sheesh, that is a weak class.
This winter? Harold Baines, Tony Fernandez, Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire, Cal Ripken, Devo (OK, pushing it there). Gwynn and Ripken are mortal locks in year one with McGwire being the only other one likely to make it. Much as I'd love Fernandez to make it we all know he won't (2276 H, 94 HR, 288 Avg, 5 AS Games, 4 GG, 0 MVP).
Current holdovers - Jim Rice, Goose, Dawson, Blyleven, Lee Smith, Morris, John, Garvey, Trammell are the only ones I see with any hope (I really didn't want to list Garvey but he does have 26%). Rice and Goose should both make it before the '09 winter vote. Dawson (on till 2015) might make it by then. Blyleven (2011), Smith (2016), Morris (2013), and Trammell (2015) will still be on the ballot until the vote after the season in brackets. John is off after 2008, Garvey is on his last ballot.
The big thing stopping Larkin will be Trammell. Trammell's figures - 2365 H, 185 HR, 6 AS Games, 4 GG, no MVP (should've had '87). Similar in hits and HR's and GG's. Larkin made double the all-star games and has the MVP on his mantle though which should help. Hmmm. Checking this way one does see how the voters could screw him over ala Trammell. Odds are the guys on the ballot after the '09 season will be Alomar, and maybe Raines who are actually hall-worthy outside of Trammell/Blyleven with Morris and Dawson both being strong cases if not already in.