How many games will Halladay and Burnett combine to win in 2007? (Explain your answer.)
| 45+ |  20 (9.17%) |
| 37-44 | 77 (35.32%) |
| 27-36 | 110 (50.46%) |
| 20-26 | 10 (4.59%) |
| 12-19 | 1 (0.46%) |
| 11 or less | 0 (0.00%) |
218 votes | 13 featured comments
I have a healthy Halladay with 22 and Burnett at 14.
That would be good for about 60 percent of the TO rotation wins on the season, which is typical of a team's top two starters.
That would be good for about 60 percent of the TO rotation wins on the season, which is typical of a team's top two starters.
Halladay for 20, Burnett 15, definetly ready to match Lilly's win total
I'll take 11-1 odds on under 27.
I'd say a sensible prediction for Halladay is 12-15 and for Burnett is 9-13 (that is the prediction for the number of wins, not the record).
I certainly hope they combine for more.
I'd say a sensible prediction for Halladay is 12-15 and for Burnett is 9-13 (that is the prediction for the number of wins, not the record).
I certainly hope they combine for more.
Appologies to the self follow up but a good question to ask is since 1999 (the first year both were in the majors) how many years have Halladay+Burnett's win total been 27 or higher?
Answer: Once, in 2002 when Halladay won 19 and Burnett won 12.
If you take all 8 years they've been in the majors they've averaged a combined 19 wins a year. If you limit yourself to the past 3 years then it is up to just under 22 wins per year. If you take the past 5 years (to include 2002, their best year, as your cherry picked endpoint) they average less than 24 wins per year. Even if you take each of their best years ever individually you only get to 34 wins total. If the pitchers were about equally good then one would need to win 14 and the other 13 to hit 27. How many times as either won 13+ games? Halladay is 3/8 at being 13+ and Burnett is 0/8.
Their combined win totals since 1999 is:
12, 7, 16, 31, 22, 15, 24, 26.
I'm all for optimism and I sure hope they each win 20+ games next year, but realism would have to think that if they combine for even 28-30 wins it has been a very good year.
Answer: Once, in 2002 when Halladay won 19 and Burnett won 12.
If you take all 8 years they've been in the majors they've averaged a combined 19 wins a year. If you limit yourself to the past 3 years then it is up to just under 22 wins per year. If you take the past 5 years (to include 2002, their best year, as your cherry picked endpoint) they average less than 24 wins per year. Even if you take each of their best years ever individually you only get to 34 wins total. If the pitchers were about equally good then one would need to win 14 and the other 13 to hit 27. How many times as either won 13+ games? Halladay is 3/8 at being 13+ and Burnett is 0/8.
Their combined win totals since 1999 is:
12, 7, 16, 31, 22, 15, 24, 26.
I'm all for optimism and I sure hope they each win 20+ games next year, but realism would have to think that if they combine for even 28-30 wins it has been a very good year.
If Halladay is healthy throughout the year (say, missing no more than 2 or 3 starts), he could win 20. The forearm strains are a concern, though. Especially without Speier to help bridge the gap to BJ. Roy could easily miss more than that. I'll guess he wins 17 games. (If the Jays had signed Lugo, I would have predicted an extra couple of wins).
I think AJ will stay healthy and win 17 as well.
I think AJ will stay healthy and win 17 as well.
Im thinking about 32 wins... 15 by AJ and 17 by Doc. If our aces can do that then i think we will be in good shape. And If Chacin can come on like he did in his rookie season then i think there could be another 15 game winner. Chacin had the best win percentage of all the starters last year...His ERA has to come down but the team seems to win for him... it must be the cologne.
My answer:
This off season, Halladay finds that perfect balance between pushing himself hard to prepare and maintaining his endurance and arm strength. Then, caught up in the midst of a very tight American League east and an even tighter battle for the wildcard, Doc pulls out all the punches, and steps up to lead the Jays into serious contention and does battle with the great Johan for the Cy Young award. Doc finishes the season a stunning 22 - 5, finally getting some good luck and winning a few games he didn't deserve (I think Karma owes Doc a few wins for this year...) and most of the ones he did deserve.
Burnett, after an off-season of tutelage from Doc, finally accepts that success in the American League will come from giving your team 30 + starters, 7 + innings, and roughly 3 runs allowed per start. He accepts that he doesn't need to strike out 27 batters a game to be successful. With this shift in mentality and a focus on "getting the out", and not just "getting the strke-out", Burnett has his healthiest season to date, starting 30+ games, and going a very pretty 15-9 while giving the team 210 + innings.
Then, the following year, Hallday and Burnett replace Jack Bauer on 24 and form a 1-2 counter-terrorist punch that no enemy could ever hope to defeat. Often gunning down would-be offenders by throwing 95 MPH fastballs at them. Later on in the series, Zaun comes in to be the new director of CTU...
*crosses fingers*
Wouldn't it be nice? Well... at least the first part!
This off season, Halladay finds that perfect balance between pushing himself hard to prepare and maintaining his endurance and arm strength. Then, caught up in the midst of a very tight American League east and an even tighter battle for the wildcard, Doc pulls out all the punches, and steps up to lead the Jays into serious contention and does battle with the great Johan for the Cy Young award. Doc finishes the season a stunning 22 - 5, finally getting some good luck and winning a few games he didn't deserve (I think Karma owes Doc a few wins for this year...) and most of the ones he did deserve.
Burnett, after an off-season of tutelage from Doc, finally accepts that success in the American League will come from giving your team 30 + starters, 7 + innings, and roughly 3 runs allowed per start. He accepts that he doesn't need to strike out 27 batters a game to be successful. With this shift in mentality and a focus on "getting the out", and not just "getting the strke-out", Burnett has his healthiest season to date, starting 30+ games, and going a very pretty 15-9 while giving the team 210 + innings.
Then, the following year, Hallday and Burnett replace Jack Bauer on 24 and form a 1-2 counter-terrorist punch that no enemy could ever hope to defeat. Often gunning down would-be offenders by throwing 95 MPH fastballs at them. Later on in the series, Zaun comes in to be the new director of CTU...
*crosses fingers*
Wouldn't it be nice? Well... at least the first part!
My head says 27-30. The odds that both of them will make 30+ starts are probably 1 in 2. If they are both healthy all season long, I'd say 36. The Jay offence figures to provide a lot of run support in 2007.
As the team stands today, I believe it's not a even a slight stretch to expect an average of 14 wins each from Doc and Burnett. So I voted for 27-36. So 28 wins is my pessimistic expectation.
If the middle infield situation clears up, and the team gets something better than replacement level production from there, then I'd expect their win total to be closer to 36 — say 32-34.
If Burnett can bear down most of the season, if the Big Hurt can stay healthy and provide 75 percent of the production he gave the A's last year, and if the middle infield is bearable, then 37-44 (I'd say 38) is a distinct possibility. That's optimism.
If the middle infield situation clears up, and the team gets something better than replacement level production from there, then I'd expect their win total to be closer to 36 — say 32-34.
If Burnett can bear down most of the season, if the Big Hurt can stay healthy and provide 75 percent of the production he gave the A's last year, and if the middle infield is bearable, then 37-44 (I'd say 38) is a distinct possibility. That's optimism.
2 x 20, bank on it.
Finally, a fully healthy Halladay. The last half of 06 AJ was a different pitcher. He was a winner. He could taste it, and it tasted good!
I put down 20-26 wins.
Both pitchers are a health risk. Doc's forearm strain has me worried and AJ has demonstrated the inability to stay healthy through out his career. There's no reason to think he turned the corner especially after all the DL time he had last season.
Both pitchers are a health risk. Doc's forearm strain has me worried and AJ has demonstrated the inability to stay healthy through out his career. There's no reason to think he turned the corner especially after all the DL time he had last season.
I wonder what the poll would look like if people had to have money backing their answers. Through 172 votes more than 43.5% say over 37 and more than 8% say 45+.
What were all the times any 2 pitchers on the same team combined for 45+ Wins since the Jays became a MLB team?
2002 Schilling and Johnson gave the Diamondbacks 47 combined wins.
1990 Stewart and Welch gave the As 49 combined wins.
1983 Hoyt and Dotson gave the Dodgers 46 combined wins.
1980 Stone and McGregor gave the Orioles 45 combined wins (4 man rotation).
1978 Figueroa and Guidry gave the Yankees 45 combined wins.
So it happens less than once every 5 years since the Jays became a team, and less often again once we moved to a strict 5 man rotation. Looking at past years it is probably only 50/50 at best that the top two pitchers (any league, any team) in all of MLB in wins combined to win 45+, let alone 2 specific pitchers only one of whom is truly top notch.
On the easier to reach 37 win plateau I'd be willing to wager a years salary at 2:3 odds on the under (I'd plan on hedging against specific games or 20-win props if it looked close). The 37 number isn't out of the question but I'd put it as less likely than the 8% that are 45+ and less likely than under 20 too.
What were all the times any 2 pitchers on the same team combined for 45+ Wins since the Jays became a MLB team?
2002 Schilling and Johnson gave the Diamondbacks 47 combined wins.
1990 Stewart and Welch gave the As 49 combined wins.
1983 Hoyt and Dotson gave the Dodgers 46 combined wins.
1980 Stone and McGregor gave the Orioles 45 combined wins (4 man rotation).
1978 Figueroa and Guidry gave the Yankees 45 combined wins.
So it happens less than once every 5 years since the Jays became a team, and less often again once we moved to a strict 5 man rotation. Looking at past years it is probably only 50/50 at best that the top two pitchers (any league, any team) in all of MLB in wins combined to win 45+, let alone 2 specific pitchers only one of whom is truly top notch.
On the easier to reach 37 win plateau I'd be willing to wager a years salary at 2:3 odds on the under (I'd plan on hedging against specific games or 20-win props if it looked close). The 37 number isn't out of the question but I'd put it as less likely than the 8% that are 45+ and less likely than under 20 too.