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Which Blue Jay is likeliest to take an '06-Alex-Rios-level performance stride in 2007?

Russ Adams 15 (5.84%)
Casey Janssen 15 (5.84%)
Adam Lind 77 (29.96%)
Shaun Marcum 33 (12.84%)
Dustin McGowan 81 (31.52%)
Davis Romero 7 (2.72%)
Francisco Rosario 14 (5.45%)
Other (who?) 15 (5.84%)

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257 votes | 16 featured comments
Which Blue Jay is likeliest to take an '06-Alex-Rios-level performance stride in 2007? | 16 comments | Create New Account
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Mick Doherty - Thursday, November 09 2006 @ 04:56 PM EST (#157697) #
This new poll question comes to us, via e-mail, from Alex Kozaris (aka Twilight).

Got a suggestion for a poll? Let us know.

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js_magloire - Thursday, November 09 2006 @ 04:59 PM EST (#157698) #
I voted Lind, because in reality he could be for real and be a solid hitter. Shaun Marcum could do his part and "break-out" by being a solid 5th starter.

But by far the biggest potential gains would be if Dustin McGowan or Francisco Rosario all of a sudden start pitching like real good prospects instead of the pumpkins they have turned into. Those are the sorts of performances that add to a World Series championship. I personally have a feeling that Rosario is closer.

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Paul D - Thursday, November 09 2006 @ 05:27 PM EST (#157699) #
I voted for Marcum, as I think he's the most likely to step up NEXT year, and be a solid number 3 guy.

I was tempted to pick 'other' and vote for Josh Towers, but decided that might be against the spirit of the poll.

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Mylegacy - Thursday, November 09 2006 @ 06:03 PM EST (#157702) #

I voted for McGowan. I thought everyone was going to vote for Lind. Lind is going to be huge!

I couldn't figure McGowan... he came back form the TJ and seemed to get his velocity back real fast but then it just didn't click...then we heard he has type 1 diabetes and had lost 25 to 30 pounds. The question should have been how could he be as good as he was under those circumstances. Now that his diet is under control, his drugs are in place and his weight is slowly getting back up (presently at 215) I expect him to be what we all thought he could be, namely Roy Lite.

McGowan, League and Rosario. Our three biggest disappointments in a generation and it looks like two are going to get to where we had hoped and I haven't given up on Rosario either. Best of all we'll control McG through age 30, League through age 30 and Rosario through age 31. How sweet it is!

ps Rosario who has been 195 to 200 for years is now 215, League is still 195.

 

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John Northey - Thursday, November 09 2006 @ 07:40 PM EST (#157707) #
I'm the odd one to pick Janssen.  When it comes to big jumps they are almost impossible to predict, you have to go on gut feel imo.  Something about the way he lit the world on fire then got his butt kicked makes me think he could become solid and the opportunity will be there at some point in 2007 for him.  Lind will have the best year probably but that just requires him to do what I figure most would expect.
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Mike Green - Thursday, November 09 2006 @ 08:13 PM EST (#157708) #
Two other players who could make a Great Leap Forward are Aaron Hill and Chip Cannon.  Ages 25-27 are the ones where the GLFs are most often made, and Hill and Cannon will both be 25 next year.  Both also have had late season power surges which may portend better things in 2007.

What would a GLF for Hill look like?  If Hill makes a Rios-like jump, he would hit .320 with 20 homers and 80 walks.  He has the physical ability to do that, but no one would rationally project it as a likely outcome for him in 2007.

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Rob - Thursday, November 09 2006 @ 09:27 PM EST (#157712) #
When I looked at the list and decided to vote Other (Aaron Hill), I wished that I would be doing so before Mike picked Hill as well. Fortunately, this is the only time I've ever been unoriginal in this regard.

And at first, I thought we were voting on "most likely Blue Jay to get a staph infection". None of the above for that one, please.
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FisherCat - Friday, November 10 2006 @ 09:24 AM EST (#157724) #
I voted other and that other is Aaron Hill.  When voting for this we have to ask ourselves which one of those on the list (if any) are going to even be given the shot to have an Alex Rios explosion. I don't think Janssen, Lind, Adams, Romero or Rosario will be given enough playing time to click.  And if the Jays are successful in the offseason at getting rotation help, neither will Marcum.  I think McGowan will be traded or waived.  So that leaves us with the other (Hill) who I think at one fielding position, can post .320/.375/.435 numbers (12-18 homers) (40 doubles).
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Mick Doherty - Friday, November 10 2006 @ 09:46 AM EST (#157725) #

Just for the record, I almost added Hill to the list of options, but figured a guy who hit .291/6/50 in 150+ games wouldn't really be a "breakout" in the same sense as the others listed are.

Although i guess you can make an argument that Rios' 2005 was approximately the same level as Hill's 2006.

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Jonny German - Friday, November 10 2006 @ 10:08 AM EST (#157728) #

Great poll question.

I voted for Janssen, but FisherCat makes a very good point about opportunity. Depending on how the offseason goes, the best choice could be Rosario, McGowan, or even Adams.

I think Lind and Hill are good choices to potentially be big contributors in 2007, but not to literally do what the poll asks. Rios' leap forward was quantum - 40 points of batting average, 43 points of OBP, 119 points of slugging. That would put Hill at .331 / .392 / .505.

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Mike Green - Friday, November 10 2006 @ 11:06 AM EST (#157732) #
It's funny.  I was thinking about Lou Whitaker in connection with Hill. I seemed to remember a breakout season where he hit .320 at about 25.  It turns out that he was 26 when he hit .320, but there really wasn't power growth that year for Sweet Lou.  It was Trammell, who had the breakout year in 1983 at age 25, with significant bumps to the batting average and power. 

It is more difficult to decide what would be a quantum leap for a pitcher.  If Marcum or Janssen threw 180 innings with an ERA of 4.40, that would be very valuable for the club, but not really inconsistent with their records, even taking into account their modest struggles in 2006.  Rios' jump was from an established major league performance level over almost 2 seasons.

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John Northey - Friday, November 10 2006 @ 12:44 PM EST (#157736) #
To me a leap ala Rios would be shifting from marginal to all-star or non-entity to one of the top players on the team but not quite to top 5 in the league level (not sure where Rios ranks, but at mid-season he was playing like top 5 in RF). 

So, for Hill it would take him moving to around a 900 OPS level while for a starter ala Janssen it would be more like an ERA in the 3's.   So, who is going to pick John McDonald to jump up to a 750 OPS and Gold Glove?

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tstaddon - Friday, November 10 2006 @ 12:59 PM EST (#157737) #
According to the Denver Post, the Jays signed RHP Matt Roney to a minor league contract this week. A good, young organizational depth guy who was drafted high enough to indicate he may yet have some untapped potential. Seems like a sharp signing to me.  Learn more about him here: http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=oak&playerID=425662

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westcoast dude - Friday, November 10 2006 @ 05:19 PM EST (#157757) #

I voted Davis Romero because he reminds me of Pedro Martinez.  An '06-Alex-Rios-level performance stride is a two year process, and Davis made a big stride this season. I would say, "Davis, until you take a loss, you're in the rotation." Some people relish rising to a challenge.

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Twilight - Friday, November 10 2006 @ 10:32 PM EST (#157777) #
Hey, thanks for picking my poll idea! I thought it might be interesting. I agree with not including Hill, because he's already kind of established himself as a solid major leaguer. I have no doubt he will improve further, but as was said the same level of improvement would make for some league-leading stats.

I picked McGowan too. I think it's a risk, but there's a huge upside if he puts it all together. I wouldn't think of him as a "Roy Lite" as much as I would an "AJ Lite"--he's got an absolutely smokin' heater and a nice 12-to-6. If he can locate, he's going to be good. As for a Rios-style jump, we'll have to see...but 180 innings with an ERA of around 3.75 would be a pretty nice jump for any of the young pitchers.

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Craig B - Sunday, November 12 2006 @ 07:54 PM EST (#157799) #
Lind is going to be huge!

Sure, but he had an excellent year, so he doesn't need a Rios-like performance stride to be great.

I think Adams is the likeliest to see a substantial upgrade in performance.  If I had to pick another, it would be McGowan.
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Which Blue Jay is likeliest to take an '06-Alex-Rios-level performance stride in 2007? | 16 comments | Create New Account
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