Who will end up with the most career hits among these three? (Age and hit total through 6/24 shown.)
| Pudge Rodriguez (34; 2,266) |  10 (9.17%) |
| Derek Jeter (33; 2,024) | 95 (87.16%) |
| Garret Anderson (33; 1,998) | 4 (3.67%) |
109 votes | 10 featured comments
In the spirit of complete accuracy, Jeter turns 33 tomorrow, while Anderson turns 33 this coming Friday.
I voted for Anderson, though he's the least likely of the three listed to, for instance, make the Hall of Fame -- I think he's one of those guys who makes you look up one day and say "Holee crap, HE has 2850 hits?"
Think Vada Pinson.
I voted for Anderson, though he's the least likely of the three listed to, for instance, make the Hall of Fame -- I think he's one of those guys who makes you look up one day and say "Holee crap, HE has 2850 hits?"
Think Vada Pinson.
Jeter. Pudge seems a lot closer to the end of his career than Jeter does.
I'm fine with thinking Vada Pinson for Garret Anderson, but I think Jeter is going to go past 3,000...
By the end of 2009, Jeter will be 36 and he should have anywhere from 2700-2750 career hits. The all-time Yankee record is Gehrig's 2721, and no one has ever cleared 3000 in a Yankee uniform (Winfield, Boggs, and Henderson are the only 3000 hit men who played for the Yankees.)
He may not be playing shortstop anymore, but he'll still be hitting. (He's doing OK this year, I'd day.) He could go well past 3000, as high as 3300.
He may not be playing shortstop anymore, but he'll still be hitting. (He's doing OK this year, I'd day.) He could go well past 3000, as high as 3300.
Pudge seems a lot closer to the end of his career than Jeter does.
OK, this is probably true because Pudge is a catcher, but looking at the two of them without knowing anything about catchers and how they age, I wouldn't think so. Pudge looks in good shape to me and is still an elite defensive catcher, while Jeter no longer resembles an elite or even an adequate defensive shortstop although he's battled his shortcomings well.
Pudge can probably play until he is 42 like Bob Boone did, unless his knees give out. He still hits decently and is a super catcher. But Jeter has the talent and cachet to play until he is nearly 40 as well, if he wants to, and since he's collecting 190 hits a year instead of 150, he should pass Pudge (at the same age) sometime in late '07 or early '08.
OK, this is probably true because Pudge is a catcher, but looking at the two of them without knowing anything about catchers and how they age, I wouldn't think so. Pudge looks in good shape to me and is still an elite defensive catcher, while Jeter no longer resembles an elite or even an adequate defensive shortstop although he's battled his shortcomings well.
Pudge can probably play until he is 42 like Bob Boone did, unless his knees give out. He still hits decently and is a super catcher. But Jeter has the talent and cachet to play until he is nearly 40 as well, if he wants to, and since he's collecting 190 hits a year instead of 150, he should pass Pudge (at the same age) sometime in late '07 or early '08.
Jeter will end this season somewhere around 2125 hits. For players who have between 2000 and 2250 hits before they reach the baseball age of 33 (37 players in all, 2 of whom are active - Griffey and Pudge) 10 of 35 reach 3000, or 29%.
Thinking that defensive value might be getting in the way, I decided to look at a subgroup of those 35 that I thought were most comparable to Jeter.
Roberto Clemente
Tris Speaker
Richie Ashburn
Frankie Frisch
Roberto Alomar
Lloyd Waner
Pete Rose
Cal Ripken
Nellie Fox
Willie Mays
Arky Vaughan
Pie Traynor
Ron Santo
George Davis
Mickey Mantle
Billy Herman
These are the guys who retained a significant amount of defensive value at their age 33 season. Jeter's defense is, on average, probably a little less valuable than those guys averaged out - maybe the same. Five of those sixteen made it to 3000 hits, or 31%. One of those guys, of course, was Willie Mays, and Derek Jeter is about as good as Willie Mays would have been if you had cut both of his legs off above the knee, but you take the comparisons you have. Jeter is a million miles better than Lloyd Waner, so I suppose those things even out somewhere.
Thinking that defensive value might be getting in the way, I decided to look at a subgroup of those 35 that I thought were most comparable to Jeter.
Roberto Clemente
Tris Speaker
Richie Ashburn
Frankie Frisch
Roberto Alomar
Lloyd Waner
Pete Rose
Cal Ripken
Nellie Fox
Willie Mays
Arky Vaughan
Pie Traynor
Ron Santo
George Davis
Mickey Mantle
Billy Herman
These are the guys who retained a significant amount of defensive value at their age 33 season. Jeter's defense is, on average, probably a little less valuable than those guys averaged out - maybe the same. Five of those sixteen made it to 3000 hits, or 31%. One of those guys, of course, was Willie Mays, and Derek Jeter is about as good as Willie Mays would have been if you had cut both of his legs off above the knee, but you take the comparisons you have. Jeter is a million miles better than Lloyd Waner, so I suppose those things even out somewhere.
I voted Pudge, as I don't think Jeter will play it out until the bitter end, whereas Pudge will. I see Jeter, and this is probably just wishful thinking on my part, falling off a cliff like Alomar did. At the end of Alomar's age 33 season, he had 2389 hits, coming off maybe his finest season. It looked liked a sure 3000 hits, HoF, all-time great. Then, well, you know, three years of suck and he retired. Plus, as I look, Alomar is Jeter 2nd most similar player on BBref. The first is Trammel, who was done being good by age 35. Jeter might be the exception, but middle infielders tend not to last a long time (I realize catchers don't often either, I'm just justifying my choice here). A point in Jeter's favour might be his lack of range...it's saved him from making a lot of plays, kept him fresh...
I voted for Anderson
Current vote totals: The Jeter 55, Pudge 7, GA 1.
Don't feel bad, Mick. You're not different, just special.
Current vote totals: The Jeter 55, Pudge 7, GA 1.
Don't feel bad, Mick. You're not different, just special.
These questions don't seem to be as much about as who's the better player now and in the future as much as who will crap out first.
In this respect, Garret Anderson ought to win the dead duck poll in a running with most players. Who wouldn't expect Julio Franco to last longer? I think a good career race would be between Anderson and Russ Ortiz, who has just popped back up in Baltimore.
Pudge made his third start of the year today at 1B, (and third for his career) and is looking more likely to accept playing anywhere to stay in the game, be it 1B or DH. Can he do it? Errorless so far, stay tuned. What I can't imagine is what Jeter will do when he's no longer a shortstop. He is entering the age when a player is a ticking time bomb and certainly has a target on him by many fans of his demise. But outside of an ugly start to 2004, he doesn't slump much. He could DH and be valuable. Occasionally spell the SS position. Anything could happen. He could lose his bat speed or his body could drag down his mental acuity. Maybe he becomes a power hitter overnight.
But Garret Anderson? He's toast.
In this respect, Garret Anderson ought to win the dead duck poll in a running with most players. Who wouldn't expect Julio Franco to last longer? I think a good career race would be between Anderson and Russ Ortiz, who has just popped back up in Baltimore.
Pudge made his third start of the year today at 1B, (and third for his career) and is looking more likely to accept playing anywhere to stay in the game, be it 1B or DH. Can he do it? Errorless so far, stay tuned. What I can't imagine is what Jeter will do when he's no longer a shortstop. He is entering the age when a player is a ticking time bomb and certainly has a target on him by many fans of his demise. But outside of an ugly start to 2004, he doesn't slump much. He could DH and be valuable. Occasionally spell the SS position. Anything could happen. He could lose his bat speed or his body could drag down his mental acuity. Maybe he becomes a power hitter overnight.
But Garret Anderson? He's toast.
I voted Jeter. Like Molitor, he hasn't developed as much as he might have, and I expect his career to end with the same flourish as Molitor's did. I will not be watching when they retire his uniform number in a "moving" Yankee Stadium ceremony.