When would YOU promote Vlad Jr to the big leagues?
| Today |  22 (21.15%) |
| July | 6 (5.77%) |
| August | 5 (4.81%) |
| September | 19 (18.27%) |
| April 2019 | 19 (18.27%) |
| May 2019 | 33 (31.73%) |
104 votes | 8 featured comments
Depends - if he'll sign a 10 year deal I'd bring him up now, but if not then May 2019.
I think that John has it right. But I think has ready and should be adjusting to MLB pitching now.
I concur with John. But there is an opportunity here for the two sides to agree on a long-term deal. A 10- or 12-year deal starting in 2018 could be beneficial for both sides. The Jays would get: a marketable, homegrown superstar for upwards of a decade (and avoid the embarassment of him leaving for a competitor — possibly Boston or New York — as a young free agent). It would also send a positive signal to the baseball community, including in Latin America, where future prospects are likely to be fixated on Vlad and the Jays for years to come.
Vlad would get: the chance to start his major-league career now instead of a year from now; a tonne of financial security; and an opportunity to spend at least the first half of his career with a respected organization in a great city. (Of course, as others have noted, the team’s sometimes anemic commitment to winning could be a stumbling block here.)
My guess is that the team is going to take it year by year for a while, though.
Vlad would get: the chance to start his major-league career now instead of a year from now; a tonne of financial security; and an opportunity to spend at least the first half of his career with a respected organization in a great city. (Of course, as others have noted, the team’s sometimes anemic commitment to winning could be a stumbling block here.)
My guess is that the team is going to take it year by year for a while, though.
Something to keep in mind: if the Jays don’t work out a long-term deal, Vlad may soon price himself out of the Jays’ budget. In other words, Shapiro might prefer to see how Guerrero performs before agreeing to a deal, but Guerrero might prove to be so good that by the time the Jays are good and ready to make an offer (say, in two or three years), the player might no longer be in their league.
I agree, sign the 10 year deal first. How much is fair though, remembering that if he doesn't sign and doesn't get promoted quickly he makes minor league salary longer, and pre-arb is ml minimum. Plus a 10 year deal is hit by bus insurance in case for whatever reason he doesn't pan out.
Maybe something like 0.5 m for first 4 years, then 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10 mil for next 4 years of arb. Then FA years of 15? Remembering we are trying to ev fair value, if he is a fully healthy map hof player he'd be worth more, but if he is only an average ml player or an injured player may be worth less. Put that together does 10 year $57 million seem in the right ballpark?
Maybe something like 0.5 m for first 4 years, then 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10 mil for next 4 years of arb. Then FA years of 15? Remembering we are trying to ev fair value, if he is a fully healthy map hof player he'd be worth more, but if he is only an average ml player or an injured player may be worth less. Put that together does 10 year $57 million seem in the right ballpark?
Dare to dream, but I can't imagine there's any hope for a long-term deal once he sees the pay days Bryce Harper and Manny Machado get as 26-year-old free agents this winter.
My feel is a deal that is $500k for the first 3 years (including 2018), then $5 , $10, $15 $20 for his arbitration years, then $10 mil locked in (if hurt, $20 if healthy) with easy to get (if a star) things to get him up to $30 mil per after that. IE: $5 mil per year added per MVP, $1 mil per for each All-Star appearance, $500k for silver slugger or gold glove (haha), etc. All based on stuff you can put in a deal (for example, you can't base it on OPS or HR or any of that). Put the limiter of $30 mil with an adjustment if the top 5 average more than that (so he can earn his way up to whatever their average is). Perhaps include a clause for years after 10 where both agree to continue the deal as it could be mutually beneficial to keep going on that type of plan. Perhaps a 5 year agreement at that stage if both agree. That gives him $50 mil pre free agency, plus $30 mil for his first 3 free agent years guaranteed so $80 mil in the bank with another $30 locked in if healthy and on roster when free agency would've started pushing it up to $110 mil with another $30 mil on the table if he plays like he is thought to be able to and potential for more as the salary structure changes.
Creativity will be key as will a desire for it from both Vlad and the Jays.