Taken literally it's a false choice unless you feel really strongly about blowing it up completely or trying to win the division in 2013, but...

Be opportunistic. Look for the right deal to get the (controllable) players you want. The ideal trade might involve a package of useful parts to a contender in exchange for high-end talent - something like the Rasmus trade. There are lots of ways AA can go about improving the team. He could target premium pitching talent, or a third baseman, second baseman, corner OF or 1B/DH type, even a catcher or shortstop.

There is no urgency, though. Sometimes deadline deals work out, sometimes they don't. Plus, it's always worth being alert for more modest opportunities (like Thames-Delabar).

I marked "buy", but not in the usual sense.  The club be focussed on obtaining players who can help the club in 2014 and 2015 (and if they are major leaguers now, so much the better, and not on selling anybody- obviously some players ought to be more readily available than others...

Maybe this isn't that productive but I sort of feel like the disappointed father who is throwing up his hands and saying "you got yourself into this ... now you get yourself out."  I'm for standing pat.

The Jays regime is in it to win it for the next few years, so if they can add a controllable player that will help for the next few years I'm ok with buying and using prospects to do it, if necessary. Ideally I think everyone would like to see them deal from their bullpen, D. Oliver for certain, and if you can get anything of value now would be a good time to sell on Juan Perez who is out of options. I'd pretty much be ok with them selling any of the bullpen arms because whoever they sell they will be selling high. I'd want a crap ton for Cecil and Delabar.

I have no evidence for this, but my sense is that bullpen arms aren't a particularly valuable commodity at the deadline anymore. I think teams have cottoned on to the fungibility of relievers. And the draft pick compensation is gone, at least for mid-season acquisitions (and most relievers generally). Also, the new CBA has strengthened teams' desire to hold on to prospects. I don't see the Jays being able to address the team's core needs by trading a couple of bullpen arms only. That's why I suggested the Rasmus deal as a template for getting the kind of player the Jays need. But those kinds of deals are hard to engineer.

The Rasmus deal  was Rasmus and 3 washed up relievers for Dotel, E-Jax, Scrabble and Corey Patterson.

So, Oliver, Rogers, another reliever and the position player being upgraded.

Would have to be a big upgrade.

 

The Rasmus deal was all about putting the Cardinals over the top by providing them with a proven workhorse SP and two capable bullpen arms (one of whom, Rzep, was controllable and had perceived upside). The Cards also received draft compensation for Jackson and Dotel after the season, I believe.

The Jays received a talented young player at a premium position who was underachieving at the time, plus filler.

In other words, the Jays received value, but they also gave up real value, with a proven starting pitcher (one of the hardest deadline commodities to acquire) being the key piece heading to St. Louis.

I don't know what to mark. I look at the trades and compare who we have in the system and generally say "we could have done that" and ask "why not?" The merits of a Jake Peavy deal are numerous, but if A.A. was so eager in the Offseason, why not now? Knowing he must have Top Starting Pitching and that's it's expensive, A.A. should be going great guns to acquire that now. The price will only go up.