The Tigers are 2-10! (With a Pythagorean W-L of, uh, 2-10!) Where do they end up?
| 100+ losses |  3 (1.44%) |
| 70-75 wins | 30 (14.35%) |
| .500 | 22 (10.53%) |
| Just a bit above .500 | 106 (50.72%) |
| AL Wild Card | 26 (12.44%) |
| AL Central champs | 19 (9.09%) |
| World champs | 3 (1.44%) |
209 votes | 6 featured comments
Logically, how to look at this. Let's say I predicted a 94-68 season for the Tigers before the season began, or 26 games above .500; so, that's my view of their long term potential. Since they are 8 games below .500 now, I predict that, living up to their ability henceforth, they'd be 18 games above .500; but they've also eaten up about 7.5% of the season, or about the time necessary to go 2 games above 500. So now we're down to 16 games above 500.
Finally, starting out so poorly has to affect my view of their innate ability somewhat, so let's say 12 games above for the season, or 87-75.
Finally, starting out so poorly has to affect my view of their innate ability somewhat, so let's say 12 games above for the season, or 87-75.
That's how I was thinking about it too...if they are a .600 team (97 wins in 162), they are now expected to win 92. The only way to offset a prolonged slump is with a prolonged winning stretch of the opposite persuasion. The Yankees have managed this after a few bad Aprils in recent times, but we don't have any evidence to show that the 2008 Tigers are actually a very good team (as opposed to looking like they should be on paper, before injuries). It wouldn't surprise me to see the Tigers rip off a long win streak, but any Jays fan from the last 4-5 years knows that not every team gets on a long winning streak, even when the team itself is pretty good. It's almost impossible to climb out of a hole going 6-4 every ten games.
To start as badly as they have makes it very difficult to picture them winning 90+.
Two years ago they jumped from 71 to 95 wins. Then they dropped to 88. Now they are going to drop sub-80 imo. I'll look silly months from now possibly but right now they are 2-10 and they earned that 2-10 record. Carlos Guillen has an OPS+ of 188 so far, Brandon Inge 140. Good ol' Aquilino Lopez is pitching his best (11 IP, 11 H, 1 BB, 8 SO) and Jeremy Bonderman has been solid (105 ERA+). That is a lot of things going right on a team going so wrong.
Negatives that won't continue to this degree... OPS+ sub-50...
I-Rod (37)
Placido Polanco (19!)
Jacque Jones (34)
However, all 3 are past the cliff age (32) thus could be doomed to sub-100 OPS+ from now on too.
Miguel Cabrera is at 175/283/275 for a 54 OPS+ but at 25 I seriously doubt this is permanent. He'll be back but he is the only guy in their lineup under 31 with just one other hitter under 27 (Clete Thomas).
Another interesting note on their hitting - 8 stolen bases, 0 caught with 19 GIDP - one more GIDP than the Jays.
For pure 'wow' ugly factor look at Dontrelle Willis - 5 IP, 1 hit, 9 walks, 0 strikeouts, 4 runs. Wow. I'd be telling my hitters to just keep that bat on their shoulder against him this year. Looking more like a young burnout every season.
Two years ago they jumped from 71 to 95 wins. Then they dropped to 88. Now they are going to drop sub-80 imo. I'll look silly months from now possibly but right now they are 2-10 and they earned that 2-10 record. Carlos Guillen has an OPS+ of 188 so far, Brandon Inge 140. Good ol' Aquilino Lopez is pitching his best (11 IP, 11 H, 1 BB, 8 SO) and Jeremy Bonderman has been solid (105 ERA+). That is a lot of things going right on a team going so wrong.
Negatives that won't continue to this degree... OPS+ sub-50...
I-Rod (37)
Placido Polanco (19!)
Jacque Jones (34)
However, all 3 are past the cliff age (32) thus could be doomed to sub-100 OPS+ from now on too.
Miguel Cabrera is at 175/283/275 for a 54 OPS+ but at 25 I seriously doubt this is permanent. He'll be back but he is the only guy in their lineup under 31 with just one other hitter under 27 (Clete Thomas).
Another interesting note on their hitting - 8 stolen bases, 0 caught with 19 GIDP - one more GIDP than the Jays.
For pure 'wow' ugly factor look at Dontrelle Willis - 5 IP, 1 hit, 9 walks, 0 strikeouts, 4 runs. Wow. I'd be telling my hitters to just keep that bat on their shoulder against him this year. Looking more like a young burnout every season.
I had them as a 90 win club before the season. Assuming that this view was correct, you would mark them down for 85 wins now (.555 winning percentage times 150 games plus 2 wins).
The RS/RA does suggest that perhaps the 90 win estimate pre-season might have been inaccurate, although they are missing Granderson who should be back shortly. I'll go with 82-83 wins.
The RS/RA does suggest that perhaps the 90 win estimate pre-season might have been inaccurate, although they are missing Granderson who should be back shortly. I'll go with 82-83 wins.
I'm still 'optimistic' for the Tigers' sake, though I'm rooting for the White Sox to finish ahead of them. The lack of pitching depth is really hurting them and their offense was clearly overrated by some observers, but they have a ton of secret weapons. Bonderman's a very good #2. Granderson is a pretty hefty upgrade over Clete Thomas and friends against righties. They're missing their two best relievers, which is a tough blow for any team to stomach. And at some point Cabrera is going to get going.
With Zumaya and Rodney on the DL, this team feels really similar to the '03 Jays.
With Zumaya and Rodney on the DL, this team feels really similar to the '03 Jays.
Alternatively, all we know of the 2008 Tigers is so far they are a .167 team. So 27 wins, historic levels of suck on par with the Cleveland Spiders, someone else in the Central wins the wildcard for sure, what with 20-30 extra wins floating around in just the Central games.
The Tiger offense so far is having the anti-Blue Jay problem (which has been the lack of superstar level performances in previous years, at least as I see it)...no one has provided anything close to a league average: no OPS+ between 73 and 136, not even part-timers, which is pretty incredible as team-wide flukes go - the team OPS+ is 81. For pitchers, aside from Bonderman at 105, no one else has an ERA+ between 64 and 277, team at 70. Wow, that's a whole lot of small sample extreme results for 12 games.
The Tiger offense so far is having the anti-Blue Jay problem (which has been the lack of superstar level performances in previous years, at least as I see it)...no one has provided anything close to a league average: no OPS+ between 73 and 136, not even part-timers, which is pretty incredible as team-wide flukes go - the team OPS+ is 81. For pitchers, aside from Bonderman at 105, no one else has an ERA+ between 64 and 277, team at 70. Wow, that's a whole lot of small sample extreme results for 12 games.