I think it's going to be Quentin.  I didn't think the Sox would be this good, but the AL Central looks really weak this year and they could get the division crown.  If a team projected to be as bad as they were ends up winning the division, I think the voters will pick someone from them as the MVP.

In that case, it'd be either Quentin or Dye (semi-quietly having a monster year himself).  Quentin has the sexier counting stats in his favor (R and RBI), so I choose him.

I think it's a little early to ask, but it would be hard to pass up the triple crown winner (and yes, I'm aware it happened before), wouldn't it? Hamilton has been clutch this year -  while being a terrible way to predict future performance, I'd say "clutch-ness" is entirely relevant to an MVP discussion within a year. A triple crown would be pretty cool - does anyone recall the latest someone has made it into the year leading all three categories since Yaz won it?

Just saw that Ted Williams didn't win the MVP the year he hit .400, either.  Was there some sort of voting conspiracy favouring yankee players? 

The question is who WILL, not who SHOULD.

Should is clearly Hamilton, but he will have to dominate more than he is to get past the last place hump. (And don't argue whether there SHOULD be that stigma, because there shouldn't. However, we are talking about what WILL happen, not what SHOULD.)

 

the last place hump

Not so much! I fully expect the Rangers to finish the year a solid, albeit distant, second to LAA. At the very worst, they're third -- or do you really think SEA can amke up what is already a 7.5 game deficit (the M's are that far our of third, not first.)

"Other" is clearly the safest bet in terms of who will win, since MVP more than any other award often goes to the guy with the best stretch drive. In the AL especially, with no one putting up ridiculous offensive numbers early (unlike, say, Berkman or Jones in the NL), a good few months could be enough. But as of now, Hamilton seems like the best bet, since he's a comeback story and having a great year. And his teammate having just as good a year (Bradley) isn't likely to garner many votes from the media if they have a choice.

Williams not winning the MVP when he hit .406 is more understandable, since he lost to Dimaggio the year he had his 56 game hit streak, and an awesome year in total. Not as good as Williams, but still great. Losing to Joe Gordon in 1942, who did have a great year for a 2B seems worse to me. Gordon didn't steal a lot of bases, led the league in strikeouts and double plays hit into. Wiliams led the league in almost everything, by a wide margin in most cases. The media sure didn't like him...and loved them some Yankees.