Christmas is almost here and cash seems to be in short supply. What should Jays fans ask for this Christmas?
| A catcher |  1 (0.54%) |
| A shortstop | 50 (27.03%) |
| A DH | 30 (16.22%) |
| A starting pitcher | 45 (24.32%) |
| A new GM | 46 (24.86%) |
| Another (please specify in comments) | 13 (7.03%) |
185 votes | 15 featured comments
I'd say the team needs Santa to bring another item, almost too obvious to mention: cash, to keep away any rumor that the team must move to Las Vegas or Brooklyn or Boise.
I want JP to play the kids this year through thick and thin.
Ownership, either new or old thats committed as much or more to winning than to making money.
We need a Christmas Miracle - only we need it from April to October!
I expect: Halladay 34 starts, Litsch 34, Purcey 34, McGowan 19 (same as last year), Richmond 25, Janssen 16.
However, if Cecil and Janssen FORCE their way in then: Halladay 34, Litsch 34, McGowan 19, Purcey 25, Janssen 25, Cecil 25, LOOKS not so worse.
Offensively, lightening has to strike almost every day for us to have a shot. 600 HEALTHY NEAR CAREER AB's for each of: Snider, Lind, Rios, Wells, Rolen, Scutero, Overbay, Inglett/Hill (platoon- me thinks) is absolutely necessary. At some point Rod has to be challenged by Arencibia.
We've a reasonable chance of finishing 5th. Could be 4th. Highly unlikely we'll finish 3rd or higher unless...er...OK...highly unlikely.
Is it April yet?
I expect: Halladay 34 starts, Litsch 34, Purcey 34, McGowan 19 (same as last year), Richmond 25, Janssen 16.
However, if Cecil and Janssen FORCE their way in then: Halladay 34, Litsch 34, McGowan 19, Purcey 25, Janssen 25, Cecil 25, LOOKS not so worse.
Offensively, lightening has to strike almost every day for us to have a shot. 600 HEALTHY NEAR CAREER AB's for each of: Snider, Lind, Rios, Wells, Rolen, Scutero, Overbay, Inglett/Hill (platoon- me thinks) is absolutely necessary. At some point Rod has to be challenged by Arencibia.
We've a reasonable chance of finishing 5th. Could be 4th. Highly unlikely we'll finish 3rd or higher unless...er...OK...highly unlikely.
Is it April yet?
Oh Mylegacy, such depression and right here at Christmas too!
Your idea on the pitching I think is pretty sound but on the offense, I think you are far too passimistic.
I won't talk about Barajas and Scutero because I think we can all safelpy predict what they will do.
But is it a miracle or a lightning strike for Vernon Wells to get 600 at bats and post an OPS+ in the 120's?
Nah.
Is it a miracle if Alex Rios hits all year like he did after Cito took over for 2/3 of a season?
Not at all.
Is it a miracle if Hill plays all year and hits like he already has in 2007 or improves a bit?
Nope.
Is it a miracle if Lind's OPS is .800 or so?
I don't think most would say so.
Would it be a miracle if Overbay and Bautista hit RH and LH (respectively) exactly like they did in 2008 and thus platooned for a 1B with an .870+ OPS?
Clearly not. (Yes, I know Butter has to teach Bautista how to play iB but that wouldn't take a lightning strike either)
Would it take a lightning strike for Snider to post a better OPS than .743 (the collective OPS of all Jays' DHs last year)?
Nope. And he could be quite a bit better. It's difficult to say on that though.
And Rolen.
Even in a down year rolen was a league average 3B. His work after he came off the DL - while an exceedingly short sample - closely paralleled his normal career production. I won't say it's anything approching a certainty that he'll post an OPS much higher than he did last year...but it's hell & gone from a "lighting strike" to think he would be back to the high .800's
Is an offense that features an .850 or better level of production from RF, CF, 1B, and 3B and an .800ish level from DH (Lind) and 2B and maybe - MAYBE - LF going to be THAT bad?
Am I saying all that WILL happen? Heck know. But I will say this, it's WAY more likely that everything I just said happens than that we finish behind Baltimore.
It's certainly true that you can't pencil us in for a playoff spot next season. but then, who among us figured the Twins to force a playoff game and the Tigers to finish fifth?
We're good enough to play well and hang around waiting for something to go wrong with a couple of our rivals...that's a heckof a lot more than Baltimore can say.
Your idea on the pitching I think is pretty sound but on the offense, I think you are far too passimistic.
I won't talk about Barajas and Scutero because I think we can all safelpy predict what they will do.
But is it a miracle or a lightning strike for Vernon Wells to get 600 at bats and post an OPS+ in the 120's?
Nah.
Is it a miracle if Alex Rios hits all year like he did after Cito took over for 2/3 of a season?
Not at all.
Is it a miracle if Hill plays all year and hits like he already has in 2007 or improves a bit?
Nope.
Is it a miracle if Lind's OPS is .800 or so?
I don't think most would say so.
Would it be a miracle if Overbay and Bautista hit RH and LH (respectively) exactly like they did in 2008 and thus platooned for a 1B with an .870+ OPS?
Clearly not. (Yes, I know Butter has to teach Bautista how to play iB but that wouldn't take a lightning strike either)
Would it take a lightning strike for Snider to post a better OPS than .743 (the collective OPS of all Jays' DHs last year)?
Nope. And he could be quite a bit better. It's difficult to say on that though.
And Rolen.
Even in a down year rolen was a league average 3B. His work after he came off the DL - while an exceedingly short sample - closely paralleled his normal career production. I won't say it's anything approching a certainty that he'll post an OPS much higher than he did last year...but it's hell & gone from a "lighting strike" to think he would be back to the high .800's
Is an offense that features an .850 or better level of production from RF, CF, 1B, and 3B and an .800ish level from DH (Lind) and 2B and maybe - MAYBE - LF going to be THAT bad?
Am I saying all that WILL happen? Heck know. But I will say this, it's WAY more likely that everything I just said happens than that we finish behind Baltimore.
It's certainly true that you can't pencil us in for a playoff spot next season. but then, who among us figured the Twins to force a playoff game and the Tigers to finish fifth?
We're good enough to play well and hang around waiting for something to go wrong with a couple of our rivals...that's a heckof a lot more than Baltimore can say.
by the way, I voted shortstop but by that I mean "young SS with promise" like Jaquin Arias...not decrepit retread like Cabrera.
"Is an offense that features an .850 or better level of production
from RF, CF, 1B, and 3B and an .800ish level from DH (Lind) and 2B and
maybe - MAYBE - LF going to be THAT bad?"
The Jays offense is going to be terrible. None of those things you mentioned individually would be surprising, but if they all happened, it would be. The Jays problem is not so much that they have black holes offensively (except if McDonald plays), they just have nobody who belongs in the top 4 of a contending team's batting order. The Jays leading OBP guy last year was Lyle Overbay who was 35th in the league in that category. Their leading SLG guy was Wells who was 20th. They are a team filled with below average to above average hitters most of whom have very little upside.
"And Rolen.
Even in a down year rolen was a league average 3B."
No he wasn't. Average hitter in this context is like taling about NHL teams being over .500. The vast majority of teams will have an average or above average player at an any position. In 3Bman with 400 or more PA in the AL last year, Rolen was 8th out of 10 in OPS with only Figgins and Hanahan being worse offensively.
The Jays rankings in the league by position by OPS. (400 PA minimum-number of PAs dropped until first Jay appears)
C-9/13 (350 PAs)
1B-7/11
2B-7/13 (375 PAs)
3B-8/10
SS-8/11
LF-11/17 (325 PAs)
CF-5/12
RF-8/15
DH-Stairs not with team anymore.
Boston, on the other hand finished 11,1,2,5,5,3, 9, 2, 3 in rankings by position.
The Jays offense is going to be terrible. None of those things you mentioned individually would be surprising, but if they all happened, it would be. The Jays problem is not so much that they have black holes offensively (except if McDonald plays), they just have nobody who belongs in the top 4 of a contending team's batting order. The Jays leading OBP guy last year was Lyle Overbay who was 35th in the league in that category. Their leading SLG guy was Wells who was 20th. They are a team filled with below average to above average hitters most of whom have very little upside.
"And Rolen.
Even in a down year rolen was a league average 3B."
No he wasn't. Average hitter in this context is like taling about NHL teams being over .500. The vast majority of teams will have an average or above average player at an any position. In 3Bman with 400 or more PA in the AL last year, Rolen was 8th out of 10 in OPS with only Figgins and Hanahan being worse offensively.
The Jays rankings in the league by position by OPS. (400 PA minimum-number of PAs dropped until first Jay appears)
C-9/13 (350 PAs)
1B-7/11
2B-7/13 (375 PAs)
3B-8/10
SS-8/11
LF-11/17 (325 PAs)
CF-5/12
RF-8/15
DH-Stairs not with team anymore.
Boston, on the other hand finished 11,1,2,5,5,3, 9, 2, 3 in rankings by position.
Um...
"The vast majority of teams will have an average or above average player at an any position. "
What? That kind of defies the definition of 'average'. Maybe you mean contending teams only. Lets check a couple of teams who won their divisons last year...
LAA: OPS+ of 100 or better among 9 regulars: 3. OPS+ of 100 or better among guys with 100+ AB's: 5 out of 17.
LAA: OPS+ sub 90 among 9 regulars: 4. OPS+ sub-90 among guys with 100+ AB's: 10 out of 17
TB: OPS+ of 100 or better among 9 regulars: 5. OPS+ of 100 or better among guys with 100+ AB's: 7 out of 14
TB: OPS+ sub 90 among 9 regulars: 2. OPS+ sub 90 among guys with 100+ AB's: 4 out of 14
Now the Jays...
OPS+ of 100 or better among 9 regulars: 5. OPS+ of 100 or better among guys with 100+ AB's: 5 (Snider was at 73 AB's) out of 16.
OPS+ sub 90 among 9 regulars: 1. OPS+ of sub 90 among guys with 100+ AB's: 8 out of 16 (the entire bench sucked on offense).
So, the Jays vs LAA: Jays had more guys over 100+ for OPS+ among regulars and the same number as the Angels for overall with significant playing time. The Jays also had fewer regulars with horrid OPS+ and fewer overall with horrid OPS+ despite the bench issues.
Jays vs TB: Same number of guys over 100 for OPS+ among regulars, TB had 2 bench guys who were decent with the bat though vs the Jays 0. For horrid hitters the Jays had fewer (1 vs 2) among regulars but the bench cost the Jays again.
So, the two teams who won 100 and 97 games had regulars and overall team offense that was pretty much the same as the Jays when it comes to 'average' and 'horrid' hitters. So to say the Jays need 'average or better' hitters at all positions is pretty much a 'Griffin statement'.
FYI: Overall OPS+: Jays-95, Angels-94, Rays-99 (advantage of a good bench).
"The vast majority of teams will have an average or above average player at an any position. "
What? That kind of defies the definition of 'average'. Maybe you mean contending teams only. Lets check a couple of teams who won their divisons last year...
LAA: OPS+ of 100 or better among 9 regulars: 3. OPS+ of 100 or better among guys with 100+ AB's: 5 out of 17.
LAA: OPS+ sub 90 among 9 regulars: 4. OPS+ sub-90 among guys with 100+ AB's: 10 out of 17
TB: OPS+ of 100 or better among 9 regulars: 5. OPS+ of 100 or better among guys with 100+ AB's: 7 out of 14
TB: OPS+ sub 90 among 9 regulars: 2. OPS+ sub 90 among guys with 100+ AB's: 4 out of 14
Now the Jays...
OPS+ of 100 or better among 9 regulars: 5. OPS+ of 100 or better among guys with 100+ AB's: 5 (Snider was at 73 AB's) out of 16.
OPS+ sub 90 among 9 regulars: 1. OPS+ of sub 90 among guys with 100+ AB's: 8 out of 16 (the entire bench sucked on offense).
So, the Jays vs LAA: Jays had more guys over 100+ for OPS+ among regulars and the same number as the Angels for overall with significant playing time. The Jays also had fewer regulars with horrid OPS+ and fewer overall with horrid OPS+ despite the bench issues.
Jays vs TB: Same number of guys over 100 for OPS+ among regulars, TB had 2 bench guys who were decent with the bat though vs the Jays 0. For horrid hitters the Jays had fewer (1 vs 2) among regulars but the bench cost the Jays again.
So, the two teams who won 100 and 97 games had regulars and overall team offense that was pretty much the same as the Jays when it comes to 'average' and 'horrid' hitters. So to say the Jays need 'average or better' hitters at all positions is pretty much a 'Griffin statement'.
FYI: Overall OPS+: Jays-95, Angels-94, Rays-99 (advantage of a good bench).
Great reply John.
It's also worth a perusal of the cummulative offensive team stats comparing the three teams. There's almost no difference between the Jays and Angels, for instance.
What's even more interesting though, is if you look at the Jays' stats AFTER Cito took over (which I took the time to figure out - it's not a quick glance exercise) . do that and you find that if the Jays had hit that way all year, they would have had an offense almost indistinguishable from the Rays. (and the pitching wasn't worse either, despite the injuries).
As for the comment about 3B, Here's the OPS+ of starting AL 3B in 2008:
A-Rod: 150
Longoria: 125
Mora: 114
Guillen: 114
Gordon: 110
Blake: 110
Beltre: 109
Rolen: 107
Lowell: 103
Buscher: 100
Crede: 98
Figgins: 82
Hanahan: 77
Okay, so he was 2 points shy of being dead in the middle of AL third basemen. My bad. But if his 2008 is as much as 8 points of OPS+ higher in 2009 than it was in 2008 (entierly possible) he'd be potentially the third best 3B in the AL (depending on what others do of course)
I stand by the comment that for all intents and purposes, he was pretty much league average last year despite his not living up to his own lofty standards.
It's also worth a perusal of the cummulative offensive team stats comparing the three teams. There's almost no difference between the Jays and Angels, for instance.
What's even more interesting though, is if you look at the Jays' stats AFTER Cito took over (which I took the time to figure out - it's not a quick glance exercise) . do that and you find that if the Jays had hit that way all year, they would have had an offense almost indistinguishable from the Rays. (and the pitching wasn't worse either, despite the injuries).
As for the comment about 3B, Here's the OPS+ of starting AL 3B in 2008:
A-Rod: 150
Longoria: 125
Mora: 114
Guillen: 114
Gordon: 110
Blake: 110
Beltre: 109
Rolen: 107
Lowell: 103
Buscher: 100
Crede: 98
Figgins: 82
Hanahan: 77
Okay, so he was 2 points shy of being dead in the middle of AL third basemen. My bad. But if his 2008 is as much as 8 points of OPS+ higher in 2009 than it was in 2008 (entierly possible) he'd be potentially the third best 3B in the AL (depending on what others do of course)
I stand by the comment that for all intents and purposes, he was pretty much league average last year despite his not living up to his own lofty standards.
And a chimney repairman, Alex?
I wondered which pitcher had the best career after the age of 30. I thought that the answer would be Randy Johnson easily, but Lefty Grove does give him some serious competition.
I wondered which pitcher had the best career after the age of 30. I thought that the answer would be Randy Johnson easily, but Lefty Grove does give him some serious competition.
Give a man a fish; feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish; feed him for a lifetime.
Randy's tall but he's not that big in 3 dimensions (I think?) I bet he'd be easier to slide down and through the fireplace than say Sabathia... though I guess it's probably much harder to get him to our house in the first place.
I'm really not sure how much worse he'd be than A.J. Burnett pitching in the AL East in 2009, and losing AJ appears to be the consensus biggest hit the Jays are taking this winter. Hopefully, you could get Unit on a 1-year deal. He might conceivably serve as a good mentor for Purcey, if pitchers do that kind of thing. He would add a lot of stability to one of the rotation spots. You could start the year with Doc/Unit/Litsch/Purcey/Richmond as your rotation, still get a two-month looksee at Late-Blooming Tall Hittable Righty With Filthy Slider v1.87c (beta) and see if he's anything special, and then handle the pitching prospects accordingly.
Fishing lessons wouldn't be awful either. Neither would a guarantee that Joe Inglett will start four times a week against righties as a superutilityman to start 2009. Or world peace.
I'm really not sure how much worse he'd be than A.J. Burnett pitching in the AL East in 2009, and losing AJ appears to be the consensus biggest hit the Jays are taking this winter. Hopefully, you could get Unit on a 1-year deal. He might conceivably serve as a good mentor for Purcey, if pitchers do that kind of thing. He would add a lot of stability to one of the rotation spots. You could start the year with Doc/Unit/Litsch/Purcey/Richmond as your rotation, still get a two-month looksee at Late-Blooming Tall Hittable Righty With Filthy Slider v1.87c (beta) and see if he's anything special, and then handle the pitching prospects accordingly.
Fishing lessons wouldn't be awful either. Neither would a guarantee that Joe Inglett will start four times a week against righties as a superutilityman to start 2009. Or world peace.
""The vast majority of teams will have an average or above average player at an any position. "
What? That kind of defies the definition of 'average'."
Not to be overly technical, it doesn't defy the concept of average at all, the number of things above an average depends on the characteristics of the data that are used to create that average.
For a normal distribution, there are an equal number of data points above/below the average, but any skewed distribution will have a larger number of data points above/below average depending on the direction of the skew of a distribution.
If you look at OPS+ for 3B his statement holds, the majority of them have an OPS+ over 100... as the distribution of OPS+ for 3B is skewed (because OPS+ mean includes players from the more difficult end of the offensive spectrum).
Anyway, I just though I'd try to clear that up (a bit hopefully).
What? That kind of defies the definition of 'average'."
Not to be overly technical, it doesn't defy the concept of average at all, the number of things above an average depends on the characteristics of the data that are used to create that average.
For a normal distribution, there are an equal number of data points above/below the average, but any skewed distribution will have a larger number of data points above/below average depending on the direction of the skew of a distribution.
If you look at OPS+ for 3B his statement holds, the majority of them have an OPS+ over 100... as the distribution of OPS+ for 3B is skewed (because OPS+ mean includes players from the more difficult end of the offensive spectrum).
Anyway, I just though I'd try to clear that up (a bit hopefully).