What is the most the Jays should be willing to pay to re-sign Carlos Villanueva?
| $40 million or more |  3 (1.47%) |
| $35M | 2 (0.98%) |
| $30M | 8 (3.92%) |
| $25M | 28 (13.73%) |
| $20M | 40 (19.61%) |
| $15M | 52 (25.49%) |
| $10M | 21 (10.29%) |
| $5M | 34 (16.67%) |
| $3M or less | 7 (3.43%) |
| Nothing - Villanueva is below replacement level | 9 (4.41%) |
204 votes | 6 featured comments
Playing it fast and loose with the years, but the total guaranteed money sort of comes with a built-in implied number of years, and we had to limit this to 10 options somehow.
Thanks to greenfrog for the idea.
Thanks to greenfrog for the idea.
I'd go 3 years at $6 million with an option for a 4th at $6 million and $1 million buyout; the option vests if he pitches 400 innings total in 3 years. I counted this as 25 million, but probably 20 would be more accurate.
^^
What he said except I'd have the vesting threshold at 500 rather than 400.
What he said except I'd have the vesting threshold at 500 rather than 400.
I don't see the need to extend him immediately; they could wait until later in September or even after the season. I think I'd roll the dice with an arbitration offer. What are the possible outcomes:
- He accepts and plays for the Jays next year for $13m.
- He accepts and we negotiate a three year extension.
- He declines and someone else signs him, giving us a first rounder.
- He declines and the market is very luke warm because teams don't want to surrender a pick. This is the best scenario, imo, because we could then sign him for a much more attractive three-year deal than we could today.
Any others? I think #2 and #4 are the most likely.
I'll split the difference, more or less, between Mike G and TamRa and say 3/$18M, $6M club option for 2016, $1M buyout, option year vests with either (1) a total of 320 IP in 2014 and 2015, or (2) 180 IP in 2015.
Here's my reasoning:
- $6M per year is cheap for an effective SP, but not especially cheap for a long reliever who only occasionally starts (and might not start at all). However, given the attrition rate among SPs generally (and the particular risks among Jays' SPs going forward), the deal seems to make sense in the case of V - i.e., a guy who has proven himself to be both effective out of the 'pen, and an effective starter for at least modest stretches over the course of a year
- Given his age (28) and the development curve of many pitchers, he might still have some upside (both in terms of performance and durability) than we have seen to date
- He has less mileage than some other guys out there
- The possibly improved bullpen should make it easier for a six-inning guy like Villanueva to help the team win
- Subjectively, he has looked good this year, with the stats to back it up
- If he gets injured/tanks, $19M over three years really isn't that much dough for a (ahem!) big-market team like the Jays
OK, let's get it done! V, text me and I'll draft the contract for everyone to sign.
Here's my reasoning:
- $6M per year is cheap for an effective SP, but not especially cheap for a long reliever who only occasionally starts (and might not start at all). However, given the attrition rate among SPs generally (and the particular risks among Jays' SPs going forward), the deal seems to make sense in the case of V - i.e., a guy who has proven himself to be both effective out of the 'pen, and an effective starter for at least modest stretches over the course of a year
- Given his age (28) and the development curve of many pitchers, he might still have some upside (both in terms of performance and durability) than we have seen to date
- He has less mileage than some other guys out there
- The possibly improved bullpen should make it easier for a six-inning guy like Villanueva to help the team win
- Subjectively, he has looked good this year, with the stats to back it up
- If he gets injured/tanks, $19M over three years really isn't that much dough for a (ahem!) big-market team like the Jays
OK, let's get it done! V, text me and I'll draft the contract for everyone to sign.