I'm surprised at how the voting on this is going. I see all of these as being hypothetically possible, but they all depend on the player performing at or near the very peak of his abilities AND being very healthy. And that second part is the kicker when you get to Glaus - he's easily the least likely to be healthy enough to accomplish his feat. If you're guaranteeing me something, I'm picking the thing I see as least likely to happen naturally.

40/40 for Wells is a weird target - 2006 was the first year of his career that he reached double-digits in the steals category, with 17.

but they all depend on the player performing at or near the very peak of his abilities AND being very healthy

I don't see why you wouldn't go with Ryan and the saves.  If he saves 58 then you've probably got at least 90 wins overall. 

Halladay could win 27 and you can still finish with a poor record.

While all of these would be fantastic, you have to go with the guaranteed wins from Halladay.  With only 63 wins left to achieve 90, you'd only have to average 12.5 from the rest of the staff (4 starters and the collective bullpen).

I guess all you have to do is look at the 1990 AL West for a direct comparison.  Bob Welch and his 27 wins (Oakland) finished 9 games ahead of Thigpen and his 57 saves (Chicago).

The three hitters achievements would be great, but certainly not a guarantee of anything by themselves.

With only 63 wins left to achieve 90, you'd only have to average 12.5 from the rest of the staff (4 starters and the collective bullpen).

Not that the 2007 Jays will be in any danger of matching this team's historical stinkitude,  but Steve Carlton (27-10) and the rest of the 1972 Phillies (32-87 combined, 59-97 overall) are a good example of how that kind of reasoning can be ... dangerous.

Not that the 2007 Jays will be in any danger of matching this team's historical stinkitude,  but Steve Carlton (27-10) and the rest of the 1972 Phillies (32-87 combined, 59-97 overall) are a good example of how that kind of reasoning can be ... dangerous.

Very true.  And if the 2007 Jays end up with a Non-Halladay record of 32-87, then something went terribly, terribly wrong. 

I guess the real question is, would the 1972 Phillies have been better by removing Carlton and adding the closer that gets 58 saves?  In this case, I guess you'd have to say yes.  But that's only because the expectations for the team are dreadfully low.  On a team that has a reasonable chance to contend, getting a dominant 27-win season is the most likely of the choices to push the Jays from a 2nd place season to a playoff berth.

I'd rather have 58 guaranteed wins then 27 :).

I went with Lind.  The other four will put up numbers, maybe not these phenomenal numbers, but good numbers none-the-less.  If Lind won ROY, then it would mean that another prospect "made it".

I went with 27 wins for the doctor because if Doc has that kind of a season I think BJ will get over 40 saves anyway. Starting pitching may very well be the most important factor and  having you're number one guy healthy, eating up innings and getting 27 wins should put any non Phillie/Steve Carleton team at least in the playoff hunt.

I agee with AYJACKSON.  LIND winning ROY unanimously would essentially be a huge addition for the Blue Jays.  Most of the other "nominees" essentially amount to the best Blue Jay players staying healthy and putting up career years.  For example, assuming these guys stay healthy, it is "reasonable" to hope that:

HALLADAY wins about 18 games

BJ RYAN saves about 35 games

V WELLS hit about 30 HR and steals 15 bases (40 is unrealistic, and not even that helpful, it means that he'll get caught stealing a lot)

TROY GLAUS hits about 35 HR. 

These are "reasonable expectations".  Lind could do anything from stink and get 150 ABs and get stent to AAA, to, at the other extreme (ROY season) hit .300 with power.  If he does so, it will radically help the Blue Jays in 2007.

The biggest concerns I have for the Jays in 2007 are:

1) replacing Ted Lilly.  I know that starting pitching is overpriced right now (do you think JP wishes he had David Bush back right now?), but I wonder if JP is interested in guys like ARMAS or OKHA?

2) replacing Justin Speier.  He has done an outstanding job as "set-up man"

3) Besides Lind, having another quality "bench guy" (I don't think Stairs fits that bill).  While the Big Hurt is a huge upgrade at DH over 2006's Hillenbrand, I am concerned about the Blue Jays' depth.  Thomas and Glaus get injured a lot, and the Jays lost Catalanotto and traded Hinske (not a bad move though).  I think the Jays need a better bat on the bench than Stairs.

-Dan

What I'd like for Xmas (even more than the ones listed above), would be for A J BURNETT to win 20 games.  At times, he looks brilliant on the mound, but year after year, he spends a good portion of the season on the DL.

If Burnett wins 20 games, the Jays have a great chance to make the post-season.

I briefly selected Doc for 27wins, but after a brief moment of thought, I would be crazy not to pick B.J. Ryan's 58 saves. 58 saves=58 wins. Even by chance we would win a couple more by blow outs or something. I will take my chances on the non-BJ wins at greater than 30.

For what it's worth, I looked up the team records for the guys with 50+ saves:

THIGPEN (57) 1990 White Sox, 2nd place 94 wins

GAGNE (55 Saves) 2003 Dodgers, 2nd Place, 87 wins

SMOLTZ (55 Saves) 2002 Braves, 1st Place, 101 wins

TREVOR HOFFMAN (53 Saves) 1998 Padres, 1st Place, 98 wins

RANDY MYERS (53 Saves) 1993 Cubs, 4th Place, 84 Wins

MARIANO RIVERS (53 Saves) 2004 Yankees, 1st Place, 101 Wins

GAGNE (52 Saves) 2002 Dodgers, 3rd Place, 92 wins

ROD BECK (51 Saves) 1998 Cubs, 2nd Place, 90 wins (Wild Card)

ECKERSLEY (51 Saves) 1991 A's, 1st Place, 96 wins

MARIANO RIVERA (50 Saves) 2001 Yankees, 1st Place, 95 Wins

Overall, the ten 50+ save guys' teams finished first 5 times, plus got in as a wild card one other time, and the 1990 Thigpen White Sox would have been in the playoffs if there was a wild card that year (they ended up with the 2nd best record in the AL that year). 

So, I too may revise my vote.  58 saves in the wild card era (based on the history above) gives the team a 70% chance of making the playoffs. Still, if AJ Burnett won 20, giving the Jays two "Cy Young" type pitchers, I think they'd have a great chance of making the playoffs.

 

If Ryan saves 58 games, the Jays had better win the division, because with that workload (combined with last year's), BJ will probably land on the DL in '08 or '09.

I picked Halladay's winning 27. Roy's health may be the most crucial issue for the Jays next year (we aren't going anywhere without a healthy ace). You don't win 27 games unless you're basically hale and healthy.

If Glaus hits 52 HRs in the heart of this order--wow, that would imply a lot of team run production. If Lind wins the ROY...ditto.

How about: Royce Clayton hits .310/.375/.470, scores 95 runs, and wins the comeback player of the year award...