Wow, 40% of people so far think that Jones will end up with 500 homers or less.  For a player of Jones' quality, age 28 is usually 1/2 or less of a career, and power is pretty much the last thing to go.

I've been fascinated for the last year or two by how closely his home run career path is following Hank Aaron's (Jones first, Aaron second). I think this was alluded to in one of the "big numbers" series of articles, which haven't gotten to HR yet.

age 25: 185   179
age 26: 221   219
age 27: 250   253
age 28: 301   298
age 29: 325+   342

Jones hasn't been as good as Aaron is any other way as a hitter, although Jones takes about the same number walks per year. I think I voted for 551-600, which I thought was being conservative. Jones hasn't been injured and still has excellent defensive skills that can be downgraded to a corner OF spot later. He could always fall off a cliff (performance wise) though, it's happened to lots of guys before.

Something to keep in mind with Jones is that he has been viewed at times as one of the best defensive players ever.  Given that rep he should get a very long career, even if he starts hitting ala Dave Kingman (power, low average, mediocre to low walk totals).  If he keeps an OBP of 330+ he'll be an everyday player, 300+ a part timer until/unless his defensive rep drops. 

According to STATS and Baseball Prospectus he turned 29 on April 23, 2006.

Based on his HR history and the way that performance enhacing substances are now helping players increase/maintain power late into their careers he could easily average 33 homeruns for 10 more seasons.  This would get him well over 650.  It may not be probably but it is certainly plausible.

Right you are about Jones' birthdate. I misread April for August and have corrected the question.

There is another slugger that Jones compares closely with:

     Jones          Frank Robinson

20     23*           38

21     31             29

22     26             31

23     36             36

24     34             31

25     35             37

26     36             39

27     29             21

28     51             29

Tot     296         291

* Includes 5 HR hit by Jones in 31 games played at age 19.

With the exceptions of age 20 and age 28, the homers track rather closely.    

The question, of course, is: whither Jones?  Robinson's best homer season post-age 28 was his first year in Baltimore, when he slugged 49 at age 30.  He had only three 30+ HR seasons past age 28, but played to the ripe age of 40, collecting a total of 586 dingers.

If Jones can produce several 30+ seasons, and remain healthy enough to play productively in 130 or more games a season until age 38, as Robinson did, we could be looking at the future fifth member of the 600 Home Run Club, joining Aaron, Bonds, Ruth and Mays in that exclusive group.

I agree, Andruw is so young, his bat wont go anywhere, we might see him play some DH though maybe leave the feild when his Gold GLove status leaves....

we could be looking at the future fifth member of the 600 Home Run Club, joining Aaron, Bonds, Ruth and Mays in that exclusive group.

I'd be surprised if he was fifth; I'd think at least one of A-Rod, Manny Ramirez and Carlos Delgado will precede him there, in that order of likelihood.

Andruw appears to be one of those guys that is so good that he doesn't put much stock in training and maintaining health. He's great right now, but strikes me as one of those guys who could wain physically later on and preclude him from the 600 club.  

So Andruw strikes you as comparable to Raul Mondesi or Jose Canseco? Another Mark McGwire or a Sammy Sosa? (17 and 12 short of 600, respectively)

He looks a lot like Joe Carter when he was 29?

What do you know about the stock Andruw puts into training? News I've heard was that he was listening to a lot of advice and developed a new approach prior to last season. Which isn't an odd enlightenment for a guy of 28. You see it all the time in Toronto.

Is he so certain to fade away quickly like his compatriot Randall Simon? I'd sooner expect Andruw Rudolf Jones to play through age 40 than to see Larry Wayne Jones play into his 40th year based on health issues.

What sign does Andruw give off that he will be a player in steep decline in 5-8 years?