Spending scarce dollars on middle-level pitching is almost always a losing proposition.  I would definitely stay away from Zito- better won-loss and steady ERA in a pitching-friendly park, despite declining FIP, plus impressive c.v., equals one overpriced pitcher.  Padilla is over the last 3 years about equivalent to Lilly. Lilly might not cost us much because his 2006 was not as impressive. 

Mulder could be a good get depending on how greedy his agent is. He was a very solid starter with an ERA of 4 or worse just once in a 5 year stretch then stinks up the joint this year at age 29 (7.14 ERA over 93 IP and 17 starts). Homeritis seems to be the problem. If he'd sign a reasonable deal (2 years at no more than $4 million each lets say) then he could become a major bargin or a total waste of money. It is all on the hands of doctors and the like. Do your doctors think he'll recover from the 50% tear in the rotater cuff or not? He did the full surgery and the docs say he'll be OK but how much to risk?

Mulder seems like a candidate to sign a one year incentive laden bounce back contract. If that were the case I think there is a lot of merit inviting him to come for a medical and to throw for the Jays during the offseason.

With Petitte there were earlier retirement rumours, but if he wanted to come back for one more year he may also be worth having a look.

Signing either of these two to a one year deal gives the Jays one more year of breathing room to see if any of  the current crop of youngsters is going to step forward. 

Personally, I really think Ted has turned the corner. I believe fight night was a watershed event in Ted's career and he may well be a better than average starter for the next three years. So he's my pick for bang for the buck, if the bucks are within reason.

Alas trying to stick to my interpretation of the poll question itself I ticked Meche. I think he will be very affordable and has something to prove.

In a perfect world I would explore re-signing Lilly and one of those other guys mentioned above. That would make for an awesome rotation capable of making a big push for a championship in 2007.

 

There's a fantastic analysis of Mulder over at primer.  chadbradfordwannabee has put together videos of Mulder in his peak versus Mulder now.  The difference in the time it takes him to deliver a pitch is astounding.  Hopefully it's just a mechanical thing, and he can get it straightened out.

I"ll pray to the baseball gods that the Jays sign Zito in the off-season. A pitcher of his quality, age, and clean health record rarely hit the FA market these days.
I expect him to land a 5yr/75 mil contract.

But the best bang for the buck will turn out to be Mark Mulder. He hasn't been 100% healthy since 2004. I expect him to sign a 1 year incentive-based contract. 

I'm not convinced any of them will provide bang for the buck.  Sure there'll be some bang, but not for an economical amount of bucks.  I've said Padilla, for what it's worth.  Others are Armas and Wolf.  I think the Jays could sign both of these late-20's retreads for less than the cost of Lilly or Padilla.

 Mulder could be good, but the guy had shoulder surgery, which isn't exactly the kind of thing pitchers automatically bounce back from. He's worth an incentive-based contract, but I certainly wouldn't count on him to be healthy, productive, or possibly even ready to start the season.

  I'd say the chances of him being a bargain are about equal to the chances of him being worth nothing at all.

One thing that really worries me:

Mulder's Road ERA, 4.96 over his career.  He hasn't pitched well at all outside of Oakland/St. Louis.

Considering both are pitchers parks (Oakland especially, and Busch was a slight pitcher's park + NL factor).

There's security in great players - even if they decline a little bit, they can still help you. Barry Zito is easily the best pitcher on this list. Of this group, only Gil Meche is younger than Zito (and just by four months). Furthermore, absolutely no pitcher in baseball has a better record of staying healthy than Zito. (Granted, I guess you could always argue that Zito is overdue to miss a start or two.) Zito does work in a pitcher's park, but he also works in the American League. Jason Schmidt, four years older than Zito, works in a pitcher's park in the National League.

Second choice - Vincente Padilla. Still on the right side of 30, and he's pitched pretty well these last few years in ballparks that very much favour hitters.

I'm not convinced any of them will provide bang for the buck.  Sure there'll be some bang, but not for an economical amount of bucks.  I've said Padilla, for what it's worth.

Agreed on both counts.

Zito seems to be getting a lot of love, but although he rates to be the best pitcher of the bunch, he will cost far too much to be any kind of  bargain.  Any team that signs him will likely be a team where payroll concerns are not an issue.