THT has the 2007 Jays at 81-81, one game behind Baltimore. Your reaction?
| I'll take the "over" please! |  155 (78.68%) |
| Sounds about right | 8 (4.06%) |
| That'd be a nice surprise | 2 (1.02%) |
| Meh. Predictions are silly | 32 (16.24%) |
197 votes | 7 featured comments
Those 'predictions' look ridiculous. They project no less than 19 teams to finish within 4 games +/- of .500 and only two teams to win more than 90 games. Might as well have just put everyone at 81-81.
That's what you get when you use projections to look at the next year. Players the that had a down year are expected to get better, players that had a good year are expected to get worse. Actual improvements, which the Jays are counting to be maintained from Johnson, Wells, Rios, and Hill, tend to get washed out until they sustain for a few years. No Jays hitter had an unexpectedly bad year last year (excluding Adams, who isn't expected to make the team this year), so there's little "upside" potential according to most projection systems.
The pitching for the Jays would be almost impossible to project, aside from Halladay. We all see the upside of a healthy Burnett and Chacin, and an effective Towers Ohka/Thomson/Zambrano. But a realistic projection would have to be half seasons from the first two, and league average at best from the last three (given the last few years).
81 wins, with the potential of being between 70 and 95, depending how things work out, seems reasonable to me for this team. The AL is stacked again, or so it appears, so the Jays will need to do well to replicate last year.
The distribution of wins is way too condensed in teh article, as noted already, with no one in the NL winning over 86 games, and only three AL teams failing to win 80. Assuming every team gets about the same number of injuries, to the same quality of players, all players decline/improve at similar rates based on age, and no managers/GMs screw up the teams, well, that's just no fun at all as projections go. For instance, it might be fair to project Cleveland/Detroit/Chicago in a three way tie for second, but I'll go out on a limb and say that's not going to happen. Someone will horribly underperform (like Cleveland last year), but predicting who that will be is nigh impossible. But a lot more fun...
The pitching for the Jays would be almost impossible to project, aside from Halladay. We all see the upside of a healthy Burnett and Chacin, and an effective Towers Ohka/Thomson/Zambrano. But a realistic projection would have to be half seasons from the first two, and league average at best from the last three (given the last few years).
81 wins, with the potential of being between 70 and 95, depending how things work out, seems reasonable to me for this team. The AL is stacked again, or so it appears, so the Jays will need to do well to replicate last year.
The distribution of wins is way too condensed in teh article, as noted already, with no one in the NL winning over 86 games, and only three AL teams failing to win 80. Assuming every team gets about the same number of injuries, to the same quality of players, all players decline/improve at similar rates based on age, and no managers/GMs screw up the teams, well, that's just no fun at all as projections go. For instance, it might be fair to project Cleveland/Detroit/Chicago in a three way tie for second, but I'll go out on a limb and say that's not going to happen. Someone will horribly underperform (like Cleveland last year), but predicting who that will be is nigh impossible. But a lot more fun...
If the Jay's don't win more than 81 games this season is the JP era over?
I'm excited by only two offensive prospects, who appear to project as career DH's, and we're essentially bereft of high end pitching talent in our system.
In my view 2007 is a make or break year for JP and his career will depend on the structural integrity of AJ Burnett's right elbow. I can't see anybody blaming him if Doc goes down, he looked like a horse when he was re-signed.
I am sure that we will be tackling the question of expectations in our annual end of March Jays roundtable.
Travis Snider, by all accounts, will be able to play the outfield better than Adam Dunn in his early and mid 20s, and as of age 18 looks to be about the same quality as a hitter. Adam Lind will be a perfectly adequate first baseman when the time comes. As for the pitching prospects, "high end" is overrated. Grade A prospects come and go at only slightly better rates than Grade B ones. It's not a great system overall, with the absence of any Grade A or B middle infield or centerfield prospects being the most notable flaw, but not as bad as many make out.
On the other hand, it can awfully depressing when one realizes that one's club has less money and (at best) no more thoughtfulness than the two divisional rivals. Nevermind, it's almost spring, the flowers will bloom, the ballplayers will come north and for a time, none of this will really matter.
Travis Snider, by all accounts, will be able to play the outfield better than Adam Dunn in his early and mid 20s, and as of age 18 looks to be about the same quality as a hitter. Adam Lind will be a perfectly adequate first baseman when the time comes. As for the pitching prospects, "high end" is overrated. Grade A prospects come and go at only slightly better rates than Grade B ones. It's not a great system overall, with the absence of any Grade A or B middle infield or centerfield prospects being the most notable flaw, but not as bad as many make out.
On the other hand, it can awfully depressing when one realizes that one's club has less money and (at best) no more thoughtfulness than the two divisional rivals. Nevermind, it's almost spring, the flowers will bloom, the ballplayers will come north and for a time, none of this will really matter.
Two answers. 1. Over, please.
and 2. PREDICTIONS ARE SILLY. You can guess, hope, assume an outcome, but there is no way of knowing for sure. A million factors come into play.
Injuries, team chemistry, egos (my fav topic), drunk driving/ visa issues (hi there, Gus), managerial miscommunication and brain cramps ( hi again, Gus) are all things that are never really factored in.
I'd put a lot on the Baltimore wins - Jays wins < 1. I think the Jays should be on track for mid 80 wins. I think Baltimore should be on track for mid 70 wins.
FWIW the baseball prospectus folks have the Jays at 80-82 and Baltimore at 74-88 (and Tampa at 78-84).
FWIW the baseball prospectus folks have the Jays at 80-82 and Baltimore at 74-88 (and Tampa at 78-84).
Over, please. My heart says 94 wins and an eked-out wild-card playoff berth. My brain says 86 or so wins.
But it's mid-March, the sun is shining (in Florida), and the roster is more or less healthy. Play ball!
But it's mid-March, the sun is shining (in Florida), and the roster is more or less healthy. Play ball!