If the Jays re-sign all their free agents and make no changes for 2007, how will they do?
| Legitimate contender |  33 (15.28%) |
| Borderline contender | 142 (65.74%) |
| Slightly above 500 | 33 (15.28%) |
| 500 | 2 (0.93%) |
| Slightly below 500 | 1 (0.46%) |
| Well below 500 | 5 (2.31%) |
Not a chance they'll be a borderline contender, they need to add another legit starter before we can even have the conversation IMO.
Burnett
Chacin
Downs
Halladay
Janssen
Lilly
Marcum
McGowan
D. Romero
Rosario
Towers
I think if Lilly walks they need to replace him with an equivalent type of starter. If he stays, I think they're fine.
I see no reason that this club could not win 86-88 games again in 2007 with the same talent. That's 6-7 wins away from where one wants to be.
I don't really think so. Well, there's about 5 legitimate starters, if you live in a world without injuries.
What would happen is one or two of them would get hurt, the Jays lack of depth would show, and people once again will complain about how "unlucky" the Jays are.
The Jays look like they'll be a decent club next year and have the potential to be an outstanding one, depending how the off-season goes.
I humbly suggest that the Jays start letting some of the young pitchers try long relief in the majors, and stick with them. Pick one or two starters, one or two long relief guys. This is a role the Jays used to let youngsters do before starting, but the last years, it's been the job, primarily, of Pete Walker, Scott Downs, or a group of 5 guys per game. If a young guy needs to throw more pitches or isn't getting work, throw simulated games or something. But please stop with the "This guy...no that guy,...no, how about him?" approach to trying minor leaguers a few times, then sending them back.
The only guys the Jays got a real look at this year were Janssen and Marcum. And all that's been learned is both of them are emphatic "maybes". The same applies to League as a starter, as he looks to be a sure bet for the pen next year. I'm curious as to whether or not he gets reconverted to a starter, again.
Ultimately, It's up to the GM and the coaching staff to figure this out. Yes it's hard, but it's their job.
That's a really, really good point. Again, I wish I had thought of it.
There's a lot of cases where a team had a lot of young pitching talent, but never really got anywhere with it, because it never could sort out the wheat from the chaff. The late 80's Texas Rangers come to mind.
"Not a chance they'll be a borderline contender, they need to add another legit starter before we can even have the conversation IMO."
Since the allstar break the Jays have the 6th best ERA in all of major league baseball. I'd think that the pitching staff, and especially the starters would just have to stay reasonably healthy to contend, even if Josh Towers doesn't rebound.
If the Jays return next season with a starting rotation of Doc, AJ, Lilly, Chacin, and Marcum, they can look forward to once again not playing a meaningful game on August 1st. I sure hope JP isn’t fooled by Lilly’s latest batch of strong starts.
With Lilly as a FA, the Jays only have one reliable starting pitcher going into next season. Assuming the Jays bump up their payroll into the 90-100 million range, the Jays should make a serious run at Barry Zito.
Let’s be honest folks, the big collection of pitchers they Jays have (McGowan, Marcum, Towers, Davis Romero, Ricky Romero, Rosario, Banks, Purcey, Janssen, etc…) is a big collection of borderline MLB pitchers at best.
I’m going to take it a step further and say the Jays can’t even afford to start the season with both Chacin and Marcum in the rotation. The Jays need to bring in a upper rotation starter as well as a middle of the rotation starter. An example would be Barry Zito and Gil Meche.
It’s important to note that almost no team uses the same 5 starters from Game 1 to Game 162. There are bound to be injuries and/or ineffectiveness among the pitching staff. If the Jays want to make the playoffs next season, the pitching rotation needs to be radically changed.
I don't see anything honest in that statement. I'd go so far as to say it's ignorant. Do you seriously think that NONE of those pitchers will ever be an asset to a major league team? None of them are Francisco Liriano or Felix Hernandez. But all of them have a non-zero chance of having as good a career as "middle of the rotation starter" Gil Meche has had to this point. In fact, even given Towers' unexplained implosion this year he and Meche are currently very comparable in terms of career rate stats.
The Jays need to bring in a upper rotation starter ... An example would be Barry Zito
Barry Zito has been better than AJ Burnett in precisely one stat that matters this year: Innings pitched. Are you telling us that it's absolutely certain that this will be the case again next year, or is Zito on the rise while Burnett is on the decline?
Well, and any other counting stat like VORP or wins or Support-Neutral Wins, etc.
But overall, there isn't a whole lot of difference between how they've pitched this year. Zito's Support Neutral W-L is 14.5-10.6, for a .578 winning percentage. Burnett is 7.4-5.9 for a .556 winning percentage. I'd call it a dead heat.
Bang on. It'd be interesting to look at this using PECOTA projections - use the percentile projections to estimate how likely each pitcher is to be a good starter next year, i.e. Halladay 80% + Burnett 70% + .... + Taubenheim 5% = X. Whatever amount X is greater than 500 represents your depth, your margain for error in picking your starters.
Tangent disclaimer: I'm not a big believer in the current PECOTA machine. It produces too many results that don't pass the smell test as far as I'm concerned.
I also agree that the Jays have done a horrible job this year of deciding who to pitch - it's been the GM version of Reliever Roulette.
I don't see how AJ being better than Zito this year carries much relevancy. The fact is that to compete in the American League now means that you need a complete rotation with a steady stream of help from your backups.
The days of going with your Big Three and hoping on a prayer that young pitcher A can somehow find his groove are over. The Jays need to create a situation where they have a solid set of 4-5 proven starters and have someone ready to be pencilled in as soon as the fifth guy shows any signs of turning a Josh Towers. That's the reality of this league. They can't give 7 starts to Ty Taubenheim. There's no excuse to.
So hopefully they can bring back 15-game winner Ted Lilly and make a pitch at Schmidt or Zito. It's a tough shopping list but bringing in top notch pitching while subtracting nothing is the only way this team is the only way to sell your fans that the team is a contender. I sincerely believe that if the Jays are able to bring back Lilly and sign Schmidt that they are legitimate contenders. They then have their experienced 5 starters, and at least one good ML starter to fill in in the slightest situation that something is going wrong.
Unless your ninth batter is Hideki Matsui, this is the only way to win.
That's missing my point. Zito is better than Burnett in VORP because he's pitched more innings. He's better in SNW because he's pitched more innings. He's better in Win Shares because he's pitched more innings. It all comes back to innings pitched.
Burnett has been better in ERA, H/9, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, P/PA, GB%, FIP, and so on. Exceptions I can think of (without thinking too hard): Zito has a lower line drive rate and a higher infield fly rate.
Well, like I said, the advanced non-counting metrics like SNW% show them at about a dead heat.
But IP matters - a lot. Despite being in the major leagues a year before Zito, AJ racked up 350+IP less than Zito by the end of the 2005 season. That doesn't even take into account this season.
I'd expect that Zito will continue to put up more IP, though the opposite argument could be made - Zito's got a lot more miles on his arm, so he's more likely to break down.
Still, why not have both? :)
Something my buddy said the other day really stuck with me. Sometimes you just don't have "it." Anyone who's done anything seriously - base, golf, hockey, tennis, etc - knows this feeling. The more pitchers you run out there in the game, the more likely you run out one who doesn't have it on that particular day.
Because one huge contract for a non-superstar pitcher is enough for one team? I expect Zito to be 'more overpaid' than Burnett over the next 4 years. Maybe Ted's payroll increase makes that insignificant, but it seems unlikely. Anyhow, you're absolutely right that IP matters a lot.
The difficulty is, if you don't upgrade the pitching staff, where do you spend the extra money? Unless the Jays are going to go out and get a Tejada or A-Rod, I don't see where they're going to get a bigger bang for the buck.
Halladay
Burnett
Lilly
Chacin
Marcum
(Towers)
(Downs)
(Janssen)
(Rosario)
Ryan
League
Accardo
Spier
Frasor
Tallet
Walker
Zaun
Molina
Overbay
Lind
Hill
McDonald
Adams
Glaus
Hattig
Wells
Rios
Johnson
Catalanotto
This is a pretty reasonable team. Potentially weak in the starting rotation, but lots of options and surely better than in 2006. Having Burnett, Lind, League, and Accardo for the full season is a pretty significant gain over this years team. Unfortunately shortstop still looks a black hole unless Adams has one surprising season. If they could keep all their free-agents and sign Lugo they'd be looking at a potential 96 or 97 win season.
"The days of going with your Big Three and hoping on a prayer that young pitcher A can somehow find his groove are over."
Well it seems to be working for the Yankees. The Red Sox are no better.
I would be happy with the cuurent group next year. However, Ted will be gone. Just as well, he is not the guy you want to sign for 3 years for big $$(his shoulder seems pretty fragile and he is sooo inconsistent). I think the Jays will offer him artbitration, he will sign elsewhere and they will get a 1st round pick for him.
Well it seems to be working for the Yankees.
Unless your ninth batter is Hideki Matsui.
Yes, the Red Sox are no better. But they're 9.5 games back.
"The days of going with your Big Three and hoping on a prayer that young pitcher A can somehow find his groove are over."
Well it seems to be working for the Yankees.
Jaret Wright and Cory Lidle appreciate your description of them as "young." :-)
Is there any chance at all that:
a) The Orioles trade Tejada
b) They trade him to the Jays
c) The trade doesn't completely gut the Jays?
a) The Orioles trade Tejada
b) They trade him to the Jays
c) The trade doesn't completely gut the Jays?
Yes, possibly, no.
If the Jays stand pat for 2007 -- which I think they will not do -- they have to hope that Chacin and Burnett pitch effectively for 200 innings each, that one of the young pitchers can turn in a Josh Towers v. 2005 season, that Rios' 2007 is the first half of 2006 doubled, and that their catchers don't break down, among other things. That would probably give them 90 wins, which might give them an outside shot at the wild card. Not good enough.
The Jays don't have the tools in-house to win 95+ games next year, not without a lot of things breaking right. They need to bring in a few more parts. Their most pressing needs, to my mind, are:
1. Ted Lilly or a reasonable facsimile in the rotation -- solid mid-rotation guy
2. Adam Everett or a reasonable facsimile at shortstop -- full-time SS with a great glove
3. Johnny Estrada or a reasonable facsimile behind the plate -- full-time catcher with fine defence and some pop
I expect the Jays have the resources to acquire at most two of those items in the off-season. That would get them well on the way to contention, and a July trade might tip the balance. We'll see what Ted Rogers' wallet and the Jays' farm system can get them.