From Blair

The Blue Jays braintrust spent part of the day in their suite viewing videotape of Cain and Lincecum. The latter has electric, Burnett-type stuff. His delivery is a whirling, back-bending one that puts heavy torque on his side, but he threw that way throughout high school. The Blue Jays are split, with some believing Cain is a more polished pitcher better suited to the rigours of the American League East.

Sounds like a pretty serious discussion!

They pryed Accardo from them for Hillenbrand, id probably be talking with Giants more often too!

Glaus, Lind and Litsch for Lincecum would be enticing for the Giants.  They are pretty thin at the Major League level.  Lind and Glaus would go straight into the middle of their lineup and Litsch would be a #4 or #5 starter.  If Cain was the prize, I'd add Marcum as well.

Not only did we get Accardo from the Giants for Shea Hillenbrand (!), but the Twins got Joe Nathan (+ two minor leaguers) for AJ Pierzynski from them as well! Could be they can't judge young pitching that well.

If they had equal contract statuses I'd take Lincecum. The fact that Lincecum is also two years further away from free agency also makes him more attractive. Plus... I mean it's freakin' Tim Lincecum! How can you say no?

Blair: The Blue Jays are split, with some believing Cain is a more polished pitcher better suited to the rigours of the American League East.

I'd be curious to hear a rationale for preferring Cain that doesn't include the word 'injury.' Or perhaps, more generally, what exactly JP Ricciardi means when he says AL East pitcher. The current definition (!DaveBush) may need to be updated.

Lincecum and Cain are both strikeout artists, but Cain is a serious flyball pitcher. He gets a good number of popups, but he's also played in the NL West in AT&T National Park his whole career. Some combination of those factors has given him a 6.3% career HR/fly. I'd be much more worried about a flyballer walking into a hornet's nest of lefty power hitters than a little guy who's GB/FB neutral.

Mylegacy,

If It was just Joe Nathan the Twins got for AJ the Giants wouldn't look quite so bad but I believe those minor leaguers you mentioned were Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser were they not, I'm hoping the GM who made that trade is no longer around

 

It was actually Liriano, Bonser, and Nathan for Pierzynski. Yikes!

I voted Cain because last year there was a poll question about who the next pitcher to throw a no-hitter would be and I picked Cain...(unfortuantely, so far I'm 0 for 3...but who the hell is Clay Buccholz, y'know!)...he flirted with a no-hitter about once every 7 starts!
His walks bother me but I think he's a dominant pitcher at times and at 24, he's only gonna get better. He'll have his hiccups a la Daisuke but he'll do very well....plus he recently signed an extension before last season. Wait, wait for it....4 years at $9mil!
I'm not sure when the contract kicks in but I'm assuming that it's got 3 years left ....even if it was backloaded....$3 mil a year for Matt Cain is unbelievable!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2785439

So he's now pitched two seasons, so I believe we'd have one arbitration season before he becomes an FA....pull the trigger, JP!

Just so it's clear, it's Rios the Jays and Giants are talking about, not some combination of Glaus and Lind.

Almost 200 votes into this thing, and it's a 50.5%-49.5% split. Not sure Da Box has ever seen a poll running so closely!

This probably shouldn't even be in question.  Lincecum is a pitcher, Cain a thrower.  Lincecum is a much better bet to have a brilliant, injury free career.

If JP actually chooses Cain over Lincecum...  and if the former costs more, I'll be in shock.

My first reaction was Cain, but looking at the stats I'm shifting over to Lincecum.

Rumour:

The Bluejays have settled on Tim Lincecum as the target for acquisition, but SF wants the deal sweetened a bit more than Rios.  Names that have been mention as going with Rios are: Diaz, Thigpen, or Cecil (who'd have be a 'PTBNL' as he can only be traded at the end of December 2007).

Ouch.  But how often do get to trade for a future 'ace'?   Personally, I would hope that it was Thigpen that was going.  I'd be less happy losing Diaz or Cecil.

(10 minutes too late.....oh well....It doesn't hurt to repeat it, does it) 

Rios for Lincecum would be overpaying.  Rios and Cecil for Lincecum would be just ridiculous. 

Lincecum is unquestionably a Grade A pitching prospect.  He has a 40% chance or so of being a star, and about a 70% chance of being a good pitcher.  Injury risk is the big item, of course.

Mike, I don't know where you get your numbers, but Lincecum is more than a prospect at this point - he has 24 major league starts, and did very well in them. He hits the high 90s and all reports I've read show he has a top notch curve and change. If you mean that he's not a seasoned vet, then I certainly agree with you, and I'm glad he isn't one since that would mean he has more than one year of service time. At this point, Lincecum is one hell of a pitcher.

Just for fun, here are Lincecum's AAA numbers in '07, before being called up:

5 starts, 31 innings, 1 ER, 12 hits, 46 Ks, 11 BB.

Yeah, I know.  He posted a 4.00 ERA in the weaker league in those starts.  That is perfectly fine for a first year pitching in the major leagues, but that is not what you are buying.  It is the Grade A prospect visible in his triple A stats, the possibility that he could be the equivalent of Pedro Martinez.

Ordinarily I wouldn't pull the trigger on Rios for Lincecum. My default analysis of any trade is that the team that got the pitcher lost. Also, Rios is 27 next year, so we all have to be aware he's going to hit 55 homers.

But I think this is a special case, for a few reasons...

1. I think Lincecum's injury risk is overrated. I'm not a scout and I'm definitely not a doctor, so don't take this at face value, correct me if I'm wrong, but in Lincecum's delivery I get the impression his arm doesn't do much of anything except get propelled forward by the rest of him. Maybe that makes the rest of him a huge injury risk (I wouldn't know) but it seems kind of prejudiced to wait for his arm to fall off just because he's a little guy;

2. Lincecum, who won't be a free agent until the end of 2013, has the potential to evolve into a ridiculous trade chip as the market for pitching gets stupider and stupider. Sure he's a risky asset, but if he makes it out of the next two seasons with good numbers, he'll command more than three seasons of Alex Rios' prime (which is a lot in itself);

3. The Jays' big problem last year was that they couldn't hit righty pitchers at all. I don't think Rios for Lind on its own exacerbates that particular problem. Like, is it out of the realm of possibility that Adam Lind might be a better hitter against major-league RHPs than Alex Rios, right now? Obviously there would be a considerable defensive hit involved, but the Jays' pitching staff is a hulking groundball monster in a smallish ballpark so it doesn't hurt them as much as it would, say, the Nationals.

... and then there's the big subjective thing, Lincecum's shot at becoming a perennial star. Whether six years of Lincecum is worth three years of Rios, the Jays' only position-player star last year, is a tough call. As great as Rios is, it would be pretty sweet to be able to watch Lincecum pitch for the Jays for the foreseeable future. I'm on the fence. It would be a very risky trade, which if nothing else is a nice change of pace from the Jays' usual MO...

Lincecum's delivery is very violent and not fluid at all.  From a layman's perspective, it could be the arm, the back or the left knee that bears the brunt of it.  My own guess for the first casualty would be the knee, with resultant decline in effectiveness and later arm problems.

In truth, I have no confidence in anybody's ability (professional or otherwise) to predict injury for a pitcher.  When I first saw Tom Seaver and Roger Clemens, I thought that they had a good chance to be relatively healthy.  Not so for Lincecum, but then it was not so for Pedro either.

I'd prefer Lincecum, in order to help the Jays corner the market on players named LeRoy - watch out, LeRoy Hunt - and also because his mechanics don't seem like they would be tough on the arm.  That said, Mr Green does have a point about lower-body injuries causing arm problems later in a pitcher's career.  Lincecum's upside is too high not to make this trade.  Baseball Think Factory has a review of his mechanics at
 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/mechanics/discussion/controlled_fury_tim_lincecum/

They are less worried on the injury front.  Hope we get him.

Giants want Rios, not Glaus, and although the Jays would prefer to keep Rios than Glaus but Ned Colletti has expressed interest in Troy and you do not ever turn down a chance to trade with Ned Colletti.

I would rather see Lincecum here than Cain. The two more years are a big factor, and the BBTF piece really sold me on him. I wonder what Lincecum thinks of the Jays, since they were the first team to ever beat him in professional baseball.

I choose Lincecum Because of his stuff. Injuries do scare me with him though. That delivery is so violent... But so fun to watch.  I still would rather keep Rios. We need to lock him up.

I wonder whether the Giants would give up Cain for Rios and a high-level prospect other than Snider or Lind (maybe Cecil, Thigpen or Diaz). It seems to me that if you're going to make a trade of this magnitude, you should get your man, not your second choice. If you lose a decent prospect, so be it.

My main concern with Lincecum is that he's unproven and slight (5'10", 155 lb.) for a power starting pitcher. He also has an extreme (if mechanically sound) motion. Cain may not be as flashy, but he's a proven 200 IP starter with excellent peripherals and more of a classic pitcher's build.

Okay just for the record young Mr. Lincecum is 5'11" 170lbs, not 5'10" 155lbs, also not every scout/pitching guru believes he has an ugly/bad/potentially arm exploding delivery okay! Good... I feel better now having made those links.