I voted 2.3. I would have gone for 2.0 or even 1.8 had it been offered. Ryan is the kind of pitcher who should grow by sharpening his control at the expense of a little power- if he loses 1 strikeout and allows half a walk less per 9 innings, he will gain effectiveness.

I went with 2.60, but to be fair, a closer can have pretty good year and an ERA around 6.00 -- sayin 2-something means "No, zero, nada truly awful outings" of the 2/3 IP, seven earned runs variety. And that can happen to the best of relievers.

Ryan's career ERA is 3.54, incidentally, so I think the voting here is wildly optimistic -- tho again, I selected 2.60.

Given his peripherals and ERA the last two seasons, I would say the choices given are way too conservative. 2.30 is the absolute zenith of reasonable expectations? Hogwash.

In the history of baseball, has there ever been a closer who had an ERA of 6.00 that also had what could be considered a good season?

I am of the belief that "ERA of 6.00" and "good season" are mutually exclusive events barring major changes in the game in the future which result in a league ERA of 7.00 or something.

3.50 is my bet; surprised there aren't more votes in the upper range. 3.50 could be a good result for a closer, depending on where those ERs fall.

Ryan's career has followed a confidence-inducing arc. He started off walking about 6/9IP lowered it to 4.5/9IP and the last 2 years has got it down to 3.5/9IP. Once a pitcher finds the strike zone, it is fairly uncommon to lose it. This is exactly the pattern you like to see from a power pitcher.

I voted 2.3. I would have gone for 2.0 or even 1.8 had it been offered.

I guess the options reflect my general view of reliever ERA - extremely volatile. Which is to say I agree with Mick's general premise about a closer's ERA not necessarily being in line with how good of a year he had. I gotta disagree at this point, though:

Ryan's career ERA is 3.54, incidentally, so I think the voting here is wildly optimistic

Eric Gagne's career ERA following the 2003 season was 3.49. Would you have said it was wildly optimistic to predict a 2.50 ERA for him in 2004? Sometimes ya gotta take the early career numbers and throw them right out the window.

Back to Mike Green, and Nick, and anybody else who disagrees with the ranges offered in these polls - Please continue to speak up! I'm coming up with the ranges on my own judgement, so if I'm out to lunch I need to hear it. If necessary, I'll re-post polls with updated options. The shape of the voting on Ryan's ERA tells me I should have had 2.00 instead of 3.80, but that's not a big enough error to bother with a change.

Didn't mean to sound snide though. I will speak up more politely in the future.

B.J. Ryan is a bit of a special case. You're doing a great job, Jonny.

The question I might have polled here, is how many K's.

Thanks, Mike.

I actually thought it would be fun to poll Ryan's strikeouts too, Lefty. Decided not to because I don't like the way multiple polls push the hot topics down the left side of the page. We'll file this idea under K and pull it out in February.

I voted 2.60. I don't think ERA is as important with relievers, because one really bad outing can absolutely ruin your ERA and you need to have several excellent ones to bring it back down.

Generally if you're a reliever pitching 1-2 innings, you come in and give up 3 runs and only retire one batter, your ERA is likely to go up quite a bit. Even if in the previous 5 games, you were stellar and in 8 innings, gave up 2 hits and 0 runs.