Where will Rios' OPS be at the end of the season?
| 1.000+ |  13 (6.16%) |
| .950-.999 | 10 (4.74%) |
| .900-.949 | 69 (32.70%) |
| .850-.899 | 77 (36.49%) |
| .800-.849 | 36 (17.06%) |
| Less than .800 | 6 (2.84%) |
Only 6 walks on the season, I'm not sure if he can keep it up and talk the walks which he will be given.
I chose the 800-849 range.
Hey. New here.
Isn't Rios's approach at the plate a mild refutation of the principles of "Moneyball" (is that the proper catch-all term?) 6 walks this season? For a leadoff hitter? That's Podsednik territory, and Podsednik is one of the worst leadoff hitters in the game.
Most definitely not the proper catch-all term, but the term "Moneyball" is used incorrectly far more often than not. We discussed it here one time.
The point that Rios is not likely to remain a good choice as leadoff hitter if he continues to draw so few waks is one I agree with. But I don't his walk rate is likely to remain so low - he walked more his first two years in the majors, and there's been no reason for him to look to draw walks this year, because pitchers have been serving up plenty of strikes that he finds very hittable. This is also evidenced in his strikeout rate being lower than in his first two years.
Look at all the doubting Thomas' who still don't--or won't--believe that Rios is on track for an MVP season. I said before the start of the season Alex was the Jay most likely to be first on the cover of SI. He just keeps getting better. With Vernon and Troy batting behind him, a Ted Williamsesque career year is not out of the question.
Sure, he got two extra-base hits today, but if someone was really locked in and seeing the ball well and all that, wouldn't he not swing and miss at the junk Fossum threw up there (on the strikeout in the fifth, I think it was)? Rios has cut back on his K's, getting down to his 2003 level, so that really surprised me to see him chase back-to-back slop pitches.
I don't share the regression-to-his-career average concerns, at all. This isn't a case of a coin coming up heads 20 times in a row. Rios has a more balanced stance and has cut down on some of his body movement during his swing, enabling to pull the ball with confidence. It is a huge difference for him to not be totally neutralized by inside fastballs. This isn't finding a few holes here and there -- this is a sea change.
If the All-Star Game were held tomorrow, it would be a crime to exclude Rios. Offensively and defensively, he's been among the AL's outfield elite thus far. His OPS will drop into the low 900s or very high 800s, probably, but he'd probably take that at the end of the year.
Rob, with all due respect, it's kind of silly to cite one poor at-bat as proof that six excellent weeks are a mirage. Do you want to bet a pair of tickets that his year-end OPS won't top .825? (And yes, this is a hedge given my seemingly hopeless ticket bet on Mike Lowell.)
I think it's ridiculous that 1.000+ is even an option
But as pointed out earlier, he's at 1.078 right now. It's silly to suggest that he can't hit the way he has hit. I know he's not *likely* to do it all year, but surely it's not out of the realm of possibility. If you don't think Rios has the talent to hit .350, you haven't been watching Alex Rios.
(I went with .900-949.... I am "projecting" Rios to put up numbers of .314/.363/.518 from here on in, leading to final numbers of .326/.370/.555 for a 925 OPS)
Here are the AL leaders in BABIP. Alex has not been extraordinarily lucky. He's been hitting the ball in the air with an above average line-drive rate and a below average pop-up rate. He has above average speed and power. The closest in batted-ball profile to Alex so far this year has been Manny Ramirez; if you'd asked me what the odds were of that at the start of the season, I would have said 100-1 against.
The issue with Alex is consistency and maturity. He is 25 and he has gone through a rough patch over the last 2 years. Has he emerged stronger from an emotional perspective? One can only hope that the answer is yes.
I've been to 9 or 10 home games this season (at least 1 from each series), most of which Rios has started, and he has looked great, and consistently great, throughout. I think he's going to fade a bit over the course of the season, and have him pegged for about .315 .350 .549, but I wouldn't be surprised if he kept the power numbers high enough to break .900 at the end of the year.
I'm far from a professional scout, but I haven't seen him looked overmatched against anyone this year, which is a marked contrast from years past. Sometimes guys just make quantum leaps, and I'm optimistic Alex has been a leapin'.
The player I find most comparable to Rios' natural gifts (and dramatic shift in gears) is Derrek Lee. This is not to say that Rios will suddenly put together a season like Lee busted out with last year, but he could start punishing pitchers with the same newfound lust that Lee discovered. And run. And roam the field with a confident glove.
it's amazing what a new load of confidence can do for a guy's ability. Or whatever other secrets Alexis discovered in the offseason.
After 37 games and almost a quarter of the way thru the season Rios is off to a huge start.
The big problem for Rios(and Wells too) is he has now merely succeeded in having all the opposing pitchers change their book on him.
Now that he is a proven threat to hit, and hit with power the pitches he sees will begin to move more and more off the plate.
Since Rios has not yet shown he will work the opposing pitcher's for a walk then the ball will continually stay off the plate for him for the last 75% of the season or at least until he shows has the capability of drawing a walk.
It is for this reason that I predict he will be below .850 at year-end(hope i am wrong).
Is also why Vernon Wells has ONLY once been able to accomplish over .850 at year end, and the only reason it is happening for him this year is because opposing pitchers are having a hard time being too fine with him because they are afraid of Troy Glaus.
But the pitcher's are learning and pretty soon Mr Wells will blow his advantage as pitchers realize it doesnt matter who bats behind him he still swings at everything and does not have the control at the plate.(First pitch swings, double plays, arghh, what a waste, meaning the blown games and the future blown games because Vernon proves year in and out he is an easy out if the pitcher concentrates, just do not throw him a strike and hope he doesnt hit a ball!)
Krunchers, with regards to Rios, I have noticed that although he isn't drawing too many walks so far, he is taking more ptiches and workng the count better than previous years. He doesn't seem to get fooled as often and swing at bad pitches; someelse here noted that his strikeout rate has been noticeably less this year.
Earlier this season, SportsNet frequently put up a little chart during their broadcasts with displayed Wells' hitting in April (and May?) compared to how he did the rest of season, using data from the last four (or three?) seasons. Basically, the upshot is that Vernon, minus his April performances, is at least an .850 OPS performer. I see no reason that he can't continue his present performance. In fact, of the red-hot Jays hitters, I think only Sparky is really playing above and beyond his talent level.
On a totally seperate and boastful note, today golfing I shot a 37 (par 35). Best round ever, for me.
Oh, I was looking around, trying to find pitches/at-bat info for Rios but couldn't...anyone know where to go for that kind of stat?
From the info there, it looks like it's not that Rios is taking more pitches (3.55/ab last year, 3.53 so far), but that doesn't mean he's not picking better pitches to hit. A lot of things have certainly changed, mostly it looks like he's getting it airborn, so he's now a flyball hitter. Beats the Rios from 2004, who pounded the ball into the ground with frustrating certainty.
I'm not going to get too ridiculous, and I do agree that the lack of walks is a concern that will inevitably lead to a mid-season slump, but I think an OPS of .870 or so is quite possible.