OK - will a rent-an-arm put us over the top in 09? No. We've lost Marcum, McGowan and Burnett - we're toast.

So, to start 09 we go with five of: Halladay, Litsch, Purcey, Richmond, Janssen, Wolfe with McGowan back by mid-June(ish), and Cecil and maybe Mills and Romero ready at some point. Bear in mind that by late 09 we'll have five of: Halladay, McGowan, Janssen, Litsch, Cecil and Purcey as our propables.

For the first time in years 09 looks bleak both offensively and defensively. Unless we get Milton (and he stays healthy), and Boy Wonder can produce at 21, and Rios and Lind join a class of star they've haven't aspired to yet but might...might...maybe...if...OK, so I'm dreaming.

We're in a bit of a pickle.  What we really need is a number 2 starter.  Even if McGowan's back by May 1, I can't see him being a number 2 quality starter until at least the All-star break.  We have Litsch as number 3/4 and then a bunch of candidates (Purcey, Janssen, DavisRo, Richmond) for the 4/5 positions (and more as the season progresses - Mills, Cecil, RickyRo, RoRay). 

If we are going to struggle through with what we have, we should probably add a reclamation project to add to the mix to see us through to July when our options become more numerous.  If we have the money to address a FA pitcher that would command what we have on the table for AJ, then I would opt for Ben Sheets.  And that is how I votes.  We can worry about any embarassment of riches in 2010, if they pan out.  But with the health history of Dusty, Marcum, Janssen, Purcey, and RickyRo, the more options, the better.

I wanted to say Vazquez but it wasn't an option.

I put 'Another Free Agent', and that F.A. should be... A.J. Burnett.

Letting him go would be a collossal mistake. Nothing should be higher priority than resigning him.

I would stay clear of F.A. pitchers. These guys will all be overpriced for what they bring. If A.J. leaves then I give somone on the farm a chance. Eventually they are going to have to figure out what Rickey Romero is made of, why not throw him into the mix. He isnt getting any younger and if he doesnt figure it out soon he probably never will. Brad Mills is another player who if comes to spring training and impresses he could be a strong candidate. McGowan is a question mark for the entire year, shoulder surgury isnt even close to being as sucessfull as tommy john. He may very well never fully recover. I would either look internally, or use internal players to trade for a younger more affordable option.

internal options or whatever you can sign on a one year guarantee (Pedro, Penny, colon, etc)

absolutely NO on any long term expensive deal including AJ.

I think that with the second and third best starters (post-AJ) missing all and part of the season respectively, the brass is in a position to get the kids some innings. 2009 was a write-off the second Marcum went down.

Dempster/Lowe would be terrible signings. I would be in favour of Sheets as it is is a step sideways from Burnett (he'd probably give the Jays a season akin to AJ's 2006/2007 which is fine if Doc is Doc, McGowan heals, Litsch doesn't regress too badly and Purcey/Cecil step up). If the Jays could sign Sheets to a shorter guaranteed deal with perhaps big money team/mutual options, that'd be excellent.

With Marcum/McG down and Burnett gone the team needs a FA arm though. 1 year scrap heap arms won't cut it, unless the offense undergoes a significant overhaul. The team will crater if it cheaps out here... imagine the 2008 offense with the 2005 pitching (without the Towers/Chacin miracles). Ick.

I voted "Other-cheap (under $6 million per annum)".  Who fits into that category?  I have not a clue. 

The free agent pitcher list from Cot's looks like one of my Hall Watch "to-dos" from a couple of years ago- Pedro, Unit, Mussina, Smoltz, Pettitte.

Having had time to think about it, I'm i bit bullish actually on signing Sheets, provided we can't sign that really big bat.  That would give us Halladay, Sheets, McGowan, Litsch and Purcey/Janssen/Romero/Romero/Mills/Cecil/Richmond/Ray as our starting rotation.  Then, as our prospects emerge, I would be a reluctant proponent of a deadline or 2009 offseason trade of Doc (jesus wept).  I think Doc can be an effective pitcher through his late-30s, but would not be willing to bet a big contract on it.

Then for 2010, our rotation would be something like, Sheets, McGowan, Marcum, Cecil, Litsch.

I could be wrong but Sheets might not find the long term deal he wants.  If that's the case I'd like to see the jays offer him a very good 1 year deal something along the lines of 1/16 or 1/18.  He would be very motivated to get a 100 million dollar contract elsewhere next year, and better for the jays then signing a lessor pitcher long term.

Assuming AJ is gone, replace him internally with Scott Richmond, who pitched effectively against the Red Sox--except for when Curtis Thigpen called for consecutive changeup strikes on Ortiz--and then pitched the shutout against the Orioles.