Mussina is probably the safest bet, but I'm not sure he has 5 good years left in him (or 4 really good years).

I went with other, but if you gave me 100 guesses I still might not get it right.  But someone will do it at some point.  Felix Hernandez might be the best candidate right now.  He turns 21 next month and has 16 wins under his belt already (Mussina had 4 when he turned 23).

You have to start out young, avoid injuries, and be really good for about 20 years.  None of which are easy to pull off.

No mention of Sabathia who has 81 wins and is 26?

Still, Aside from Mussina who I could see sticking around trying to get 300 wins, no one else will.

C.C. Sabathia!!

You have to start out young, avoid injuries, and be really good for about 20 years.  None of which are easy to pull off.

Not only do you need those 3, but you also need to play on a good team that will give you run support.  A perfect example is CC Sabathia who was excellent last season. In his 28 starts, he was only able to get 12 wins because he had terrible run support (4.53)  and played on a bad team (78-84).

What about Zito? 102 wins at 29.  Declining K rate, etc., but he still wins games.

Even if Santana plays 10 more seasons & averages 16 Wins/year--  thats only a total of 238 Wins at age 38! I can't see how anyone else has a realistic chance of reaching 300 Wins unless Mussina goes balistic & I haven't seen signs of that in his last couple of seasons..

By my count, Randy Johnson had 81 wins after his age 30 season, Tom Glavine had 149 wins at the same point, Greg Maddux 165, Roger Clemens 163.  Johnson shows how good you have to be to pick up ground once behind the pace, but also that it can and does happen.

Anyone saying never...why? Clemens and Glavine have never started more than 36 games in a year, Maddux maxed out at 37 one year, Johnson has never gone past 35. We're well past the point where people thought no one would make it to 300 wins because of the reduced number of starts pitchers get to make. It's even possible that starters might get more starts in the future, should anyone try a 4-man rotation again. It's true that Clemens and Maddux and Johnson and Glavine are all-time greats, but I'm willing to bet that if the sport keeps going, there will be more of those in the future.

As to Santana averaging 16 wins a year and being on Mussina's pace...if he stays healthy, why limit him to 16? He's averaging better than 18 wins a year as a starter on a team that was 10th, 14th, and 8th in runs scored from 2004-2006. Imagine if/when he ends up on a high scoring team (which could be Minnesota this year). Give him 18 wins a year over the same hypothetical 10 year period and he's at 258 wins, which puts him right with Glavine.

I voted for Mussina. It's a long shot, but he could win 17, 15, and 14 games over the next 3 years. (Remember, he'll be pitching for the powerhouse Yankees in 2007 and 2008.) That would give him 285. Then he could sidle over to the NL for a couple of seasons of late-model Glavine/Maddux/Woody Williams-type pitching and eke out 15 wins over a season and a half for a contender before hanging 'em up.

Of the six pitchers listed to the left, I like Santana's chances best, but it would be unusual if he were the only active pitcher to get there. Chances are that someone who isn't even on the radar yet - Jake Peavy, Brett Myers, Jeremy Bonderman - will get there too. Most guys have taken themselves out of the discussion by the time they turn 30.

Zack Greinke and Mark Prior almost certainly have a better chance than Roy Halladay or Andy Pettitte. Strange as it seems.

I voted "Other" but not because I think that someone like Sabathia stands out and wasn't listed. I guess I voted this way because the thought that no one will ever reach 300 again was too tough to swallow. A young starter on a perennially good team like the Yankees could do it.

To echo the sentiments of other Bauxites, I went with other - C.C. Sabathia.

I'm nervous about Sabathia because he weighs 250 pounds, and looks like he weighs 280.

On the other hand, he is 6'7. And on the other hand, David Wells ain't exactly svelte, and he's done a good job of staying effective for a long time.

Still, the young lefty I would think about is Dontrelle. Just turned 25, already has 58 wins.

I voted other. I don't believe that anyone on the list will make it but I do believe there will be 300 game winners in the future. Maybe Sabathia, maybe Hernandez, maybe Bonderman, who knows as it's clear as mud till they get into their 30's anyway.

Other: Mike Pelfrey. 

Actually, I don't think that any pitcher currently pitching will win 300.  "Forever" is a long time though.  The problem is simply reduced opportunity.  Relief pitchers enter games earlier and earlier on average and accumulate more of the decisions.  For instance, Johan Santana has actually been much more effective the last 3 seasons than Roger Clemens was during 1986-88, but  Clemens garnered 62 wins during that time whereas Santana has 55 to show.  Eventually, it will be understood that "pitching wins" is not a useful measure of a pitcher's greatness.