It's very hard to say right now, but when all is said and done, I think it will be Halladay.

I think it's still Stieb, who I have of course written about at my usual excessive length. His best full season (1985) is a little better than Doc's best (2002) - Doc's real best season, of course, was cut short at the All Star Break. Doc did win a Cy Young. Stieb of course would have been a deserving winner four times (1982, 1983, 1984, 1985), although he somehow got almost no votes at all.

Here's a little cut and paste from the greatest website ever:

Adjusted ERA+

Rank	Player		ERA+		Year
1.	Roger Clemens		221		1997
2.	Roger Clemens		174		1998
3.	Dave Stieb		172		1985
4.	Juan Guzman		171		1996
5.	Jimmy Key		164		1987
6.	Roy Halladay		158		2002
7.	Juan Guzman		156		1992
8.	Pat Hentgen		155		1996
9.	Dave Stieb		145		1984
10.	Roy Halladay		145		2003

Adjusted ERA+

Rank	Player		ERA+		IP
1.	Tom Henke		167		563.0
2.	Paul Quantrill		131		517.7
3.	Roy Halladay		129		1692.0
4.	Duane Ward		127		650.7
5.	Dave Stieb		123		2873.0
6.	Jimmy Key		121		1695.7
7.	Doyle Alexander		119		750.0
8.	Juan Guzman		111		1215.7
9.	David Wells		110		1148.7
10.	Pat Hentgen		110		1636.0

First set is for single season, second set is for career as a Blue Jay.

Some of you may be wondering how a man posts an ERA+ of 172, makes 35 starts for a team that wins 99 games, leads the league in ERA - and goes 14-13.

It wasn't easy. Here is how (for those of you who actually have lives, and other things to do than read 6700 words and numbers on some old-timer!):

Apr 8 - LOSS 2-1 to KC.

Apr 13 - ND. Turned a 6-2 lead over to the pen. They couldn't hold it.

Apr 22 - LOSS 2-0 to KC.

May 2 - LOSS. Took a 2-1 in the 9th. Gave up the tie and left the winning run on base. The pen couldn't strand it.

May 17 - ND. Turned a 6-0 lead over to the pen. They couldn't hold this one, either.

Jun 12 - ND. 2-2 tie after 9, bullpens decided it.

Jun 17 LOSS. Pitched a 4-hitter, lost 2-1.

Jul 3 - ND. See June 12. A 2-2 tie after 9. Game went to the pen.

Jul 17 - ND. Turned a 3-2 lead over to the pen in the 8th. Bad idea.

Jul 30 - ND. Turned a 3-2 lead over to the pen in the 9th. Still a bad idea.

Aug 28 - ND. Turned a 5-2 lead over to the pen. Whoops. At least they won in extra innings.

Sep 12 - ND. Ahead 4-1 in the 7th, when first the defense and then the pen imploded.

September 22 - LOSS 2-1 on an unearned run.

The Jays scored 4.71 runs per game in 1985, fourth best in the league - Stieb's own run support was 4.57, right around the league average. If Tom Henke had joined the team just four months earlier...

I voted Halladay because I'm expecting another 6 or more years of vintage Doc and I think he's done his pitching in a tougher hitting era, though I may be wrong about that. Also he's piled up innings, complete games and shutouts at a very high rate for today, whereas Steib  pitched at a time when pitch counts where not much of a factor.

I voted Halladay because I'm expecting another 6 or more years of vintage Doc

That's reasonable, and I devoutly hope you're right - but I think he's got to actually do it first. Youneverknow. Doc turned 31 seven weeks ago: he's 120-61, 3.57 in 239 starts, 1692 IP. At roughly the same age (about a month older, to be exact), Stieb was 131-109, 3.37 in 316 starts, 2251 IP.

Stieb had never once been on the Disabled List in his life until June 1991, which is pretty remarkable - not too many guys make it to their 13th season intact. But it all caught up to him at once. A shoulder injury (caused by a tumble while covering first base) followed by back problems basically ended his career as a top-flight pitcher.

The odds are seemingly stacked against almost every pitcher once they reach 30..... if they reach 30. and then comes along guys named Moyer, Rogers, Clemens, Johnson and a lot  more to somehow balance out the Koufax's, Scores, Nolans, Joss's and a whole bunch more who got the short end of the stick. Sometimes life just isn't fair, especially for pitchers but I'm crossing every finger and toe for the Doc.

What does Doc need to do to emerge as a HoF candidate?

Essentially, everything he's already done. He just has to do it all again. When Doc returned to the team seven years ago today (2 July 2001), after wandering in the wilderness for three times forty days, he was - at last -  Doc, the pitcher we've had the remarkably good fortune to grow accustomed to all these years. If he duplicates what he's done since then, it takes us through the end of 2014. He'll be 37 years old, with a 227-108 record. And at that point, he'll be a legitimate HoF contender.

I sure hope it happens, and that it happens here.

There is no of course contest as to which guy would be first, but was anyone else surprised that Duane Ward comes in third among Toronto relievers in Adjusted ERA over his career? He obviously ranks behind well behind Henke, but Quantrill as well? They were both here for six full years (and Ward tiny parts of three others in which he worked 16.1 IP). Both wasted some time and hurt their numbers failing as starters, but Quantrill made 20 starts in Toronto, Ward just 2.

I guess it's the extra great year - Q had four of them, Ward had three.