JP Ricciardi is likely to get an extension through 2010 shortly. Do you agree with this move?
| Yes, I approve |  116 (60.73%) |
| No way | 8 (4.19%) |
| What's the rush? Let's see how this year plays out. | 67 (35.08%) |
Remember JP still has 2 years left on his deal and has publicly stated numerous times he isn't going anywhere (he wasn't even interested in his old dream job with the Red Sox this off-season) and wants to finish what he started with the Blue Jays.
To me a team should pick a GM, start with a 5 year deal, then mid way judge where he is at and decide if A) you are happy then sign for another 3 or B) you are unhappy and are willing to stick it out for the rest to see if his plan comes through or C) your club is becoming the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and you fire him fast.
The Jays seem firmly in the A category imo. The first two first rounders of JP have shown major league talent, he cleared payroll with minimal problems, and he has what seems like a solid plan to move ahead.
Ash after 4 years (1998) had some good parts but also some duds. The team came off what was to be its peak (88 wins) but also had major controversy over his first pick as a manager (Johnson). His first draft pick, Halladay, had a good September with a near no-no. The rotation had Clemens, then 3 guys who were around during the Gillick era (Williams, Hentgen, Guzman) plus Carpenter & Escobar who both looked good at the time and still do. He had his first salary dump (Myers). Stewart/Green/Cruz Jr in the outfield looked darn good. The infield was weak outside of Delgado (Grebeck/Gonzo/Sprague) but had Tony Fernandez returning and doing well at third (321/387/459). Canseco DH'ed. There were a few odd moves during the season (Tony Phillips-Jay for a minute, the scary outfield of Canseco/Phillips/Green).
So, what would've I thought at the time? It looked like things were going in the right direction. The wins improved from 56 to 74 to 76 to 88. Young players were getting into the mix with under 26 years old regulars in Green/Stewart/Cruz/Gonzo and Delgado was just 26. Carp, Escobar, and Halladay were all under 23 and looked ready for prime time. Dang, what the heck happened?!? That looked really good. Well, we got Fregosi in to manage after a panic firing of Tim Johnson during spring training (DOH!). The Clemens for Wells/Bush/Lloyd deal happened. Halladay had one good year then fell apart for awhile. Joey Hamilton. Then in 99/00 the Green for Mondesi trade. Carp fell apart. Escobar was himself. No more rookies making the lineup or rotation.
So, in '98 it looked like Ash might deserve more, but he also started from a two time WS winner and dropped down to a last place time then climbed back to contender but only after giving up on the '98 season, which was a good thing as it cleared out deadwood and created a good looking team.
If Ash was told he was the man for the next 5 years back after the 98 season, and that he didn't have to worry about someone firing him might he have made better choices? Might he have ignored Dave Stewart and kept Woody Williams? Could he have had the guts to hold onto Johnson as manager and seen what would happen rather than panic and bring in Fregosi? Could dumb panic trades have been avoided (Loaiza for Mike Young for example)? Might he have gone for prospects rather than the 'proven vet' in either Wells trade? Could Vernon Wells have had a shot to stay earlier than he did (3 years of September call ups under Ash, full time job under JP)? Hard to say.
In '98 I'd have probably told Ash he was the man and gave him a deal and budget. If he still did those dumb moves I'd have dumped him in the end.
Btw, the win total from '98 to the end of Ash? From 88 to 84 to 83 to 80. Under JP we've seen 78-86-67-80.
I personally would be willing to give him until 2010 to get things done as far as playoff appearences and if he fails then someone else can give it a go. If a new gm was going to come in it would most likely be someone with a whole new idea and a whole new plan which will take years to implement. They're going to want to wait for their own draft pics to mature and so forth. It's not like a new GM would be given more money to sign better free agents. I'd rather be sure JP can't do it then think he might not be the right man for the job at this point theres nothing to lose but 3 more years.
I'm not as hard core as a lot of the people here, but I can't see him doing anything in 3 extra years that will turn me off the team so I'll wait and see and continue to cheer and boo for that matter. That being said by the time 2010 runs around I may change my mind and so may Rogers. JP won't be making 9.3 million a year so firing him is always an option if things go that bad.
"I was very impressed with J.P., really impressed with his desire to build a winner," he said. "It's just kind of a gut feeling when you meet people and go through an organization and get treated the way you do. For the couple of days we were here, we got a good idea where this organization was headed. He's doing a good job."
Maybe that was all secret code for "They gave me the most money" but I think if your GM has security it gives the organization a certain amount of credibility going forward. The worst organizations are those whose GM's are on the hotseat - usually because the owners are constantly getting involved in the day to day stuff.
I don't think JP should get this extension, to me this team is mediocre at best. JP still hasn't brought in the "impact player" or developed on at this point in time.
Do I think BJ Ryan has the potential to be the impact closer? Yes. But I'm not sold on him after 1 single season of closing. This team needed an impact bat or an impact starter more than an impact closer.
Just waiting and praying for players to develop seems to be the statagy for the most part. And "playing it safe" seems to be the JP motto. Doesn't want any prospect to come back and bite him in the ass, doesn't want to make "the deal".
We now have a situation where Miguel Batista's value has fallen through the floor. A lot of us saw this coming, you knew when he took the mound it was an adventure, but he still had his suitors.
By the end of the season Miguel was a mess. His value isn't that of a closer, it is that of an overpaided "3rd if you get lucky" starter.
You could have pryed some very high quality prospects out of the Angels or Mets or Braves, both wanted some Bullpen help and Miggy's name was thrown around the horn.
I suggested Casey Kotchman + B level pitching prospect + Rivera or DaVanon for Hillenbrand and Batista.
Of course JP didn't want to break up the core of his team.
Which, lets face it, Batista is very likely gone before spring training.
This is just one example. Kotchman is an impact prospect (looks to be a sure fire very good 1B), and this would have filled 2 large holes that the Angels needed (3B and another Middle reliever).
Overbay for McGowan? Maybe. But the Jays need another 1B/DH badly, and this guy is a very solid bat. Is McGowan worth it?
These are just a couple recent examples. I just don't agree with JP's philosophy. Ever since he got torched by LA in the Prokopec deal, his balls are nowhere to be found.
I didn't like the deal, but it took stones to pull off, and that is something I can actually accept. You need to make those deals if you want to get to the next level.
Say you do lose Hillenbrand/Batista and Kotchman is a complete bust. Does that set you back that much? No IMO.
Valid question, Ron. My view is that J.P. has been building for the short term and ignoring (as much as possible) the long-term implications of what he's been doing. I can't criticize him too much for that; that's a rational response when you don't know if the organization wants to share your vision past 2007. In fact, in some ways it's even responsible.
I would rather have his horizon extended so that he can focus more on the long term. A number of the more sensible complaints about J.P. that have been raised around here focus on his long term planning or lack thereof (unwillingness to draft HS players being one example, focus on middling free agent "win some now" talent another).
If J.P. were to leave, I just don't see how you would properly replace him externally - there was so little interest in the job the last time it was offered and while J.P. has stopped the bleeding, he certainly hasn't saved the patient yet wherre it would be really interesting to a strong candidate. I don't see any enthusiasm out there for the job that there would be with a team with better economic fundamentals.
There's clearly some internal talent, starting with Tony LaCava and perhaps extending to some of the younger guys, but if you hang your hat on Tony LaCava the time to act would be NOW... because other teams already want to hire him. I don't think the choice is "extend now or extend next year", I think the choice is "extend soon or fire now". If J.P. isn't extended by the end of the season, I think it's likely that LaCava will be gone during the 2006 offseason and Ricciardi may well decide (I think he will) to try his luck elsewhere after 2007.
In the end, it's not a lot of money we're talking about. I think the certainty and upside benefit is worth the cost, even if 2006 and/or 2007 turns out badly and J.P. has to be fired.
Imagine you have an fifth-year arb-eligible pitcher who is widely seen as a desirable commodity by other teams. His performance has been somewhat disappointing, a strong start but significant regression two years ago that occurred alongside some injury problems, but a decent though far from spectacular year coming back last season. Now you have to decide what to do with him. Your divisional rival wants him and have made some half-hearted trade offers his way, but you're sure that you want to give him another chance in 2006 because you think he can be a frontline pitcher.
What do you do with his contract situation? You can make him an arbitration offer and settle for one year, but his agent says that he's also happy to consider a five-year contract that will lock him up for three free-agent years at roughly market rates, which right now are pretty attractive. Otherwise, if he improves or other teams (including his hometown club) show more interest, he might be gone in two seasons.
I don't think there's any "right" answer to that question.
Of course JP didn't want to break up the core of his team.
All the time I spent reading this site, I had no idea that CaramonLS was the General Manager of the Anaheim Angels. I should have been more respectful!
Yes, clearly he has no value now. I mean, it's not like the teams have been throwing around gigantic contracts to mediocre pitchers or anything. The A's didn't give a 3/21 contract to a pitcher who has, on average, been worse than Miguel. Who would want a veteran pitcher who can close, or be a 3rd/4th starter, for 5 million dollars for one year.
I guess Batista sucks so much that we can trade him for a 22 year old first baseman who had an ops of .836 last year, and would have hit 35 home runs playing a full season.
First I said we "could" have traded him at the deadline when his value was at its peak.
Batista's value now <<< Batista's value at the trade deadline.
Good prospects for Average talent are much more likely to come into the transaction fold at the deadline than they are in the off season.
That is my point. JP dropped the ball on this move. Am I saying he could have gotten Kotchman from the Angels? No, but I think it would have been very likely that if JP had offered the deal it would have been accepted.
And actually Craig, I am Bud Black. :)
My instinct would be to wait some.
I just wonder in the past 20 years, what's the average shelf life for a GM for one team.
Here in Toronto we've really only had 3 - Gillick until 1994, Ash 1995-2001, JP 2002-present. Peter Bavasi was there for '76 but I suspect his main role was getting his replacement.
Checking MLB.com I can see the Red Sox have had 10 (plus one interm who lasted only a few months) over 72 years. The Dodgers have had 7 plus two interm ones (not counting new guy Colletti) over the past 55 years with just 4 over the first 49 years. LA A of A have had 9 over the last 46 years.
It seems about 5-10 years is normal for a GM, but looking closer it seems they either get a long period (10-20 years) or a short one (sub-5 years). To me, if you pick a guy for that role you gotta give him 5-10 or you should fire whoever hired him in the first place.