As we were compiling the list of candidaates, one of the Box roster members who shall go nameless (but his initials are the same as mine, though he's not me), pleaded, "Let's please not list Podsednik for mere 'we are so much smarter than writers' purposes." So Podsednik is out, but feel free to vote "Other" and name him if you want; others just missing the cut were Jason Varitek, Paul Konerko and Jhonny Peralta.

A-Rod should win, but the writers will find a way not to give it to him. I went with Vladdy since someone from the damn AL West wins every year. This is known in baseball circles as "East Coast Bias".

I think either A-Rod or Vlad will win, in part because if you look at our list of the final 13, including the last guys cut, you have two White Sox, two Indians, two Orioles, two Rangers and three Red Sox, but just one Angel and one Yankee, so vote-splitting will come into play.

And because the Angels are more likely to win their division, Guerrero will be judged "more valuable," even though the Yankees may end up with a better record and not make the playoffs. Still, I admit, I voted for A-Rod.

I agree that if this was a "who should win" poll, A-Rod would take it over by a landslide. It's not, of course, and therein lies the fun part.

I voted for Ortiz for some reason. I forgot about the East Coast Bias and Vlad. Oh well.

A-Rod should win, and will. The voters will notice that David Ortiz isn't much of a third baseman!

I was just checking out Win Shares, and while I was not surprised to A-Rod at #1 (and he is my pick for MVP), but I was quite surprised to see Gary SHeffield as a close second!

I wonder why isn't getting more mvp talk? Is it because there is a better candidate on his own team?

It's pretty clear that there's a mistake in THT's stats, including Win Shares, for Sheffield. Sheffield is listed as having essentially the same offensive Win Shares as Rodriguez. A-Rod's hitting .321/.421/.600 while Sheff is at .290/.381/.506 and A-Rod has more PAs. They play in the same park.

BP has things right. Sheffield is fourth on his club in WARP1 behind A-Rod, Jeter and Rivera. He's narrowly ahead of Giambi and Matsui.

As I recall, Sheffield has incredible numbers with runners on this year, and Win Shares takes this into account. I think it explains why he's second. I seem to remember one of the THT articles mentioning this recently, but I can't find it. ARod has good, but not great numbers with RISP, and so isn't as far ahead. But it may be a mistake still, as Sheffield being second seems too much jump for a small part of Win shares. But no one claimed they were perfect...

Craig, I don't buy a clutch adjustment of that size. I am not saying that clutch hitting doesn't exist, merely that if you treat performance in a particular year with runners in scoring position as essentially as important as a 100 point difference in slugging percentage (and a 30 point difference in OBP), the proportions are not right. To give a concrete example, if you look at Sheffield's splits over the 2002-04 period, he's at or above his total performance in every split except man on first base alone, bases loaded and runner on 2nd, 2 outs. These are not particularly low leverage situations. He has done well close and late.

I'll have to check out the latest Runs Created formula to track the weighting given to clutch performance. It appears to be too high.

122 votes cast and Vlad Guerrero has ... three??

I don't think he should win, I'm not convinced he WILL win, but the best player and biggest name on a division champ-to-be sure ain't gettin' no respect in these here parts!