If we weren't so free agentally challenged the last ten years, I'd be against this offer. But the PR guy inside me is jumping with joy.

If I'm George, hell yeah. If I'm any of the other 29 owners I'd be walking away.

Question:

Which do you guys consider to be most dangerous, the 10M a year, or the five years?

Would you rather give him 3/40 or 5/50? Hypothetically, of course. I know he won't accept anything less than five years.

I'm on the 3 years at 12 mil side rather than 5 for 50. Pitchers are dangerous creatures. Delgado, while expensive, always hit. Someday I'll try the figures to see if pitchers really are more of a risk than hitters, but not right now.

yeah probably! HE OWNS!!!!
http://imageshack.us][IMG]http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/3572/burnnetasajay3uv.gif

^^ my attepmt to make Burnnet a Jay !

whoops sorry :P http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/3572/burnnetasajay3uv.gif

^^ this is the proper link

I decided I had to make my own A-Jay Burnett.
I got a bit lazy at the end, but I think its alright. Bonus point for guessing the original.

http://img299.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ajayburnett9mj.jpg

Halladay

This is a very important off season for JP, and although i am scared of 5 years for a pitcher, i do think he needs to make sure their offer is better than anyone elses. its the hill he has to climb to entice free agents.

Who really cares about 5 years from now? the jays need to win, and win fast. JP can;t worry about the future, because if he does, he may not have one in toronto.

It is in fact the Doctor.

I said Yes.

If I wasn't a Blue Jay's fan, or my team had little/no chance to signing him, I'd probably have voted No.

This guy at SI says no:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/stephen_cannella/11/18/burnett.rant/index.html

meh, i prefer mine better! its just the fact i need a better background, otherwise he is not that visible. anywho, burnnet is ours! but what about cat, lilly and miggy for manny?

Heh.

I'd give him ten over five. But that isn't going to get him. 12.5 per is another story.

The temptation's gotta be pretty huge for JP, given that his contract is up in a couple of years. Signing a couple of guys like AJ and/or BJ, then executing a trade or two for hitting, could vault the Jays to the top under JP's watch.

The other nice thing about signing these guys is that we get to keep our 1st round pick in June.

I don't know what to think about Burnett. He is the prize of the free agent market, however I would tread lightly on him. I am not totally convinced he will be healthy the whole tenure of his contract. I can't argue that he has the most upside of anybody available, but in my opinion he also quite possibly could be the biggest bust and I would set the odds on it at 50/50.

There is a lot of good young pitching talent in the system at this time (McGowan, Jackson, Purcey, Janssen, Romero etc) and with Halladay returning next season, is taking a chance on Burnett something that people would really want to do?

Who was the last career NL pitcher to move to a hitter's park in the AL and get better?

Just wondering.

I actually went to look that up at baseball-reference. I only got two solid answers. Paul Byrd was an average starter and good reliever with the Mets, Braves, and Phillies, then went to KC (back when it was a major hitter's park that was equivliant to this year's Coors) and became a starter with a 3.90 ERA.

The only other example I got was David Cone, but it's hard to say that he improved in the AL, given how good his 88 season was. But he also thrived in KC.

I like 3/36 better than 5/50, but I think I like 5/50 better than 3/40.

If you look at Burnett's PECOTA card going into 2005 (after his 40.9 - 1.6 - 26.8 pattern) the mean projected VORP path went:

2005 - 23.3
2006 - 19.2
2007 - 14.9
2008 - 10.4
2009 - 11.7

Then in 2005 he actually put up 33.1. I think this significantly should help his new projection at put it at something like:

2006 - 30.0
2007 - 25.0
2008 - 20.0
2009 - 15.0
2010 - 10.0

So in 2009 and 2010 what is the expected price of a 1.5 win above replacement and a 1.0 win above replacement pitcher?

My guess is $5m/year for that is ok [the difference between 5/50 and 3/40], $7m/year is too high [the difference beteen 3/36 and 5/50].

A VORP of 10 isn't really worth anything like $5 million. Shannon Stewart hit .274/.322/.388 last year and had a VORP of 10. Sal Fasano had a VORP of 10, and is no longer in the Oriole system. They got nothing for him, and could have kept him for very little.

To put it in terms that are more easily understood, a VORP of 10 for a starting pitcher going 150-200 innings would be an ERA of 5.00-5.20. Cory Lidle and Mark Redman last year were a little above 10, with ERAs just below 5 in fairly neutral NL parks. David Bush last year was a little above 15, in an off year and spending about 2 months in Syracuse.

I agree that a VORP of 10 isn't worth much. But it is worth something. And the other nice thing about a 5 year deal (when looking at the positives) is that it is likely more money in the later years. And 2010$ are worth less than 2006$.

The ideal situation with a 5/50 contract is something like:

2006: $7 m ~30 VORP
2007: $8.5 m ~30 VORP
Trade for younger players with someone who's looking for rotation help
2008: $10 m
2009: $11.5 m
2010: $13 m

Better to trade a player a year too soon than a year too late.

So maybe 3/40 is better than 5/50, but given the cost of $ in 2010, and the average payroll likely to be there, I'm not convinced that 5/50 isn't better.

It'll be interesting to compare Burnett's PECOTA projection with Chacin's, Bush's and Towers'.