Second place.
Woo-hoo! | 197 (82.77%) |
So what? | 41 (17.23%) |
Yes, we don't really have anything to show for it, but it still feels good to finish ahead of the @#%#@$@ @#$@#4. Oops, I mean Red Sox.
1998
ALE W L GB WP RS RA
NYY 114 48 - .704 965 656
BOS 92 70 22.0 .568 876 729
TOR 88 74 26.0 .543 816 768
1999
ALE W L GB WP RS RA
NYY 98 64 - .605 900 731
BOS 94 68 4.0 .580 836 718
TOR 84 78 14.0 .519 883 862
2000
ALE W L GB WP RS RA
NYY 87 74 - .540 871 814
BOS 85 77 2.5 .525 792 745
TOR 83 79 4.5 .512 861 908
2001
ALE W L GB WP RS RA
NYY 95 65 - .594 804 713
BOS 82 79 13.5 .509 772 745
TOR 80 82 16.0 .494 767 753
2002
ALE W L GB WP RS RA
NYY 103 58 - .640 897 697
BOS 93 69 10.5 .574 859 665
TOR 78 84 25.5 .481 813 828
2003
ALE W L GB WP RS RA
NYY 101 61 - .623 877 716
BOS 95 67 6.0 .586 961 809
TOR 86 76 15.0 .531 894 826
2005
ALE W L GB WP RS RA
BOS 95 67 - .586 910 805
NYY 95 67 - .586 886 789
TOR 80 82 15.0 .494 775 705
2006
ALE
NYY 97-64
TOR 86-75
BOS 85-76
I've already started using my bragging rights. Every Boston cap seen by VBF from now until April will be followed by pointing, and forced laughter.
Regardless of what bauxites see this as, there is absolutely no harm, and is definitely something to sell, from a PR perspective.
For the Red Sox, they're really going to have to shake things up to improve for next year. Even though the AL East plays the NL West, it's tough to get better than 16-2. The Red Sox could be really, really bad next year.
This only reminds me how mediocre/bad the Jays have been for the last 10+ seasons.
This 2nd place finish feels very empty because once again the Jays didn't play a meaningful game on August 1st.
While others may be happy with mediocrity, I'm not. If I was the owner, both JP and Gibbons would be fired after tommorow. But I'll save the rest of my thoughts for another thead.
For delivering the best record in nearly a decade and the best placement in the standings in over a decade?
That was a pretty promising and successful season, with Shannon Stewart becoming an everyday player, Clemens was lights-out and they won 88 games despite Hentgen failing to perform, Guzman being shipped out for the hopeless Nerio Rodriguez, and very little work out of the bullpen apart from Escobar and Quantrill. Some kid named Halladay looked like he was ready at the end of the year and there was a good nucleus altogether.
Then Clemens demanded to jump ship, Woody Williams was traded with Carlos Almanzar for Joey Hamilton. Plesac imploded in '99 and was shipped out for Frascatore and Tony Batista but to top it off Tim Johnson was disgraced out of Spring Training and replaced by Jim Fregosi. Thus setting off a slow spiral downwards, erasing any optimism from 1998.
So to echo the above, I'd say if there's anything to be taken out of this year's success, it's to look at improvement. Take care of the health and conditioning of the guys that are here, keep making smart acquisitions, don't let your manager make up stories, keep the egos out and the team building going and maybe kids will remember this as the last year the Yankees won the division.
Nope those aren’t the reasons why I would fire both of them.
Gibbons is a poor strategic manager and there were 2 disturbing incidents that made me embarrassed to be a Jays fan. I thought he micromanaged the bullpen this season. How often did he switch relievers mid inning even when they were performing well? Or how about calling a hit and run with Phillips on 2nd base vs. the Tigers. And then he would routinely trot out Molina against RHP when Zaun is clearly the better option.
The incidents involving Hillenbrand and Lilly were extremely unprofessional. You should never challenge a player to a fight. Not only did he challenge Hillenbrand to hit him, but he did it in front of the rest of his teammates knowing Hillenbrand was unlikely to swing. That incident was bad enough and then he later scuffled with Ted Lilly. The incident at the mound was already bad enough but then he proceeds to follow Lilly down the dugout steps. Gibbons actions were an embarrassment to the Jays organization and its fans.
Even if you ignore his on field managerial decisions, he should be fired based on these 2 incidents.
As for JP, I could go on and on. The Jays record in the 5 years he has been the GM is 398-411. The Jays have yet to play a meaningful game on August 1st during his tenure. The Jays aren’t any closer to the playoffs under JP than they were under Gord Ash.
As an avid listener to WWJP, he never runs out of excuses for why the Jays can’t compete for a playoff spot. When a fan called in and mentioned how JP said he could win in the AL East with a 50 million dollar payroll, JP replied with he did and referenced the 86 win season in 2003. Absolutely priceless. Uncle Ted opens up the wallet last off-season, and then JP complains it’s still not enough. He likes to go on and on “about the realities of the payroll” and how the Jays play in the same division with the 2 biggest spenders in baseball. He likes to place blame at why the Jays aren’t more competitive at everything else but himself. Don’t piss in my ear and tell me it’s raining.
The Jays have done a poor job at drafting and player development under his regime. Where are the impact players? Sorry Aaron Hill doesn’t count. Is it really a smart thing to shift around Russ Adams between SS and 2B like a yoyo? Or how about doing the same thing to young pitchers like McGowan, League, Rosario, etc….
Why is that so many people leave the Jays on a sour note? I’m talking about people like Tosca, Martinez, Stewart, Koch, and Hillenbrand. What’s the deal with JP using his trusted reporter to try to get inside Burnett’s head? Why was Halladay allowed to pitch in a meaningless Spring Training game when the team knew he had a forearm strain? Why did JP have to call his former advisor, Keith Law, an idiot?
I’m sick and tired of the excuses and the meaningless games in August and September every season. We deserve and should demand better.
I would say he's below average with his bullpen management and hit and runs, but I think part of that is if the starters do better next year, it'd be easier for him. He does seem to pull starters quite early though. And he likes Brian Tallet. But can't JP address these things to him if they are obvious and easily changed? He's not that bad. I don't know how much the bad road record and 2nd half numbers is because of Gibbons. If he stays, it isn't the end of the world.
You should never challenge a player to a fight.
The impression I got was that these things happen all the time in baseball, just behind closed doors. And I still believe the Hillenbrand thing had a point to it, like, "if your gonna disrespect me so much, you may as well fight me." The Lilly thing was unprofessional, but Lilly made an 8-0 lead evaporate in literally under 10 minutes.
he never runs out of excuses
Some are true. I think he's done pretty good this year, hopefully they'll do even better next year.
Last year the Jays were actually only 5 games back of the wild card over the mid-way point in August.
I'm confused -- 86 wins is a winning record. Isn't it? Did you think he meant "we can win the East and go to the World Series on a 50 million dollar payroll"? If he had said that, I would have laughed in his face. They never went through the five years of finishing last needed to assemble a really killer group of young players -- that's the only way I can envision going to the World Series with a low payroll like that.
The Hillenbrand and Lilly incidents -- we obviously don't know much about them. I certainly don't know enough to place blame. If you do, you obviously were there -- since there are conflicting media reports about what happened.
Why is Aaron Hill, the best defensive second baseman in the American League (and a pretty solid hitter) not an impact player?
Koch left on a sour note? Why, because they gave him a million dollars and then when he couldn't pitch anymore they let him keep the money? What were they supposed to do -- play him?
On August 17th last season, the Jays were only 4 games back of the wild card. But if you looked at the standings, they were behind 5 teams for that final spot (Yanks, Red Sox, Twins, A's, and Indians). I didn't consider the Jays to be in playoff contention then and I still don't now.
I'm confused -- 86 wins is a winning record. Isn't it? Did you think he meant "we can win the East and go to the World Series on a 50 million dollar payroll"? If he had said that, I would have laughed in his face. They never went through the five years of finishing last needed to assemble a really killer group of young players -- that's the only way I can envision going to the World Series with a low payroll like that.
When JP made that statement I believe he meant the Jays could compete for a playoff spot with a 50 million dollar payroll.
The Hillenbrand and Lilly incidents -- we obviously don't know much about them. I certainly don't know enough to place blame. If you do, you obviously were there -- since there are conflicting media reports about what happened.
What conflicting reports are you talking about? I thought it was pretty clear Gibbons challenged Hillenbrand to punch him. A CP cameraman reported Gibbons grabbed Lilly once he went down the dugout steps. Both actions are indefensible. Physical confrontations aren't the answer.
Did you find these 2 incidents to be unprofessional or do you have no opinion since you didn't know what happened?
Why is Aaron Hill, the best defensive second baseman in the American League (and a pretty solid hitter) not an impact player?
First off let me say I like Aaron Hill. He's a decent hitter and good with the glove but I don't consider him an impact player. You're probably wondering what young players would I consider impact players. Names that jump out at me are Papelbon, Wang, Cano, Verlander, Weaver, and Liriano.
Did he say that, or just that he'd assemble a winning team?
What conflicting reports are you talking about? I thought it was pretty clear Gibbons challenged Hillenbrand to punch him. A CP cameraman reported Gibbons grabbed Lilly once he went down the dugout steps. Both actions are indefensible. Physical confrontations aren't the answer.
Conflicts: the first is "punch" versus "fight" -- Gibbons wanted to fight Hillenbrand, apparently. Was it simply that Hillenbrand was refusing to defend or explain his actions and Gibbons wanted Hillenbrand to "fight", i.e. defend himself? Did he yell "Throw a punch at me, you #$(%*#@!"? Has anyone who was there described what actually happened in the clubhouse, in terms of actual events and not just vague statements?
I think Lilly throwing a brand new pitch during a baseball game that meant something to the team is indefensible, and I will forgive Gibbons blowing his stack on that one. That said, we still don't know how much physical contact there was, and the CP cameraman didn't have the quickness of mind to photograph an event he could clearly see. That, or he didn't have a clear view of it.
I've been in that third base camera bay a dozen times this year, and I'll tell you -- there's only one angle where a photographer could see down those steps, and it's standing directly in front of the season ticket holders. Not only are you not supposed to do it, the guys who sit there will yell at you. If he got up from his stool and ran over to see what was happening, why on earth didn't he bring a camera?
You can hear stuff down there; you can see stuff vaguely, peering between the giant HD cameras and into the dugout itself; but there is no good, direct view.
Did you find these 2 incidents to be unprofessional or do you have no opinion since you didn't know what happened?
I don't have enough information on either to know what the truth is. I have enough first hand information to doubt some of what I've heard.
First off let me say I like Aaron Hill. He's a decent hitter and good with the glove but I don't consider him an impact player. You're probably wondering what young players would I consider impact players. Names that jump out at me are Papelbon, Wang, Cano, Verlander, Weaver, and Liriano.
Is Cano that much better a hitter than Hill? Hill's biggest impact to the team has been being good enough to allow Hudson to be traded for Troy Glaus -- that was a real impact acquisition, and you have to admit that it relates directly to Hill's development.
As far as I'm concerned, the Lilly/Gibbons thing was settled about an hour after the game, when both Lilly and Gibbons apologized and admitted wrong-doing. Lilly later said that he was very impressed by the way the team (players and coaches) handled the situation and supported him. Not to mention he has pitched really well since, which speaks louder than anything. (Sign him up, JP)
As for the Shea/Gibby Ego Extravaganza, there was no way it should have escalated as high as it did. Shea doing something passive-agressive, like using a white board to deliver messages to his team, was the mark of a frustrated (and childish and irritating) individual who should have been dealt with in a better manner. (Stop using your fists, you stupid boys!!!) NFH is right. There are a lot of things that happen behind closed doors. Sometimes I think I know these guys, but really I don't.
Gibbons is still a baby manager , and is still learning. The wisest thing Shea said ( I believe it was after the Lilly incident) was that Gibbons was very competitive person and probably has yet to be able to reconcile his competitiveness and his frustration at failure. Hopefully Gibby has taken away some lessons from all the shenanigans.
Oh and YAY SECOND PLACE!!!!!!! I don't care what any you all say, it kicks ASS!!!
2 disturbing incidents that made me embarrassed to be a Jays fan
So when your jackass of a DH holds the team hostage, douses them in kerosene and is about to light a match--and you would watch it happen?
John Gibbons is an honest and good man. The day he challenged Shea Hillenbrand to a fight was the day Shea Hillenbrand threatened to destroy the season. Individual players can and have destroyed seasons, and I'm proud as a Jays fan that we have a manager who is willing to go to the end of the Earth to stand up for everything that is good in the world.
The Lilly incident was handled poorly by bothy parties involved and both regret it, however in all interviews, both parties believe that the incident made the bond between them stronger. And if Ted Lilly chooses to resign in Toronto, that woudl only enforce the point further.
Managing egos is by far the most difficult aspect of managing. That's simply what managing is all about, and its a part of the job that no fan will ever see. Anything we see, is merely a tip of the iceberg. It's very easy to say "Yea, Zaun should be hitting against RHP, what's going on?", but it isn't very easy when both upset catchers request a meeting after the game to discuss the problems. We were lucky to have both Zaun and Molina on the team--two distinguished gentlemen who wanted what's best for the team. Unfortunately that isn't always the case as we found out earlier in the season.
Ron, let's deal in facts regarding JP's drafting record. We'll compare him with Pat Gillick, Gord Ash, and Billy Beane. We'll give each of these gentlemen 4 full years after their first draft, in other words 5 total drafts and see what the results are.
Pat Gillick took over the Jays GM job in 1978 once they kicked Peter Bavasi upstairs and eventually out. Therefore his evaluation will run through 1982. The players he drafted who were or had been in the big leagues by the end of '82 were: Lloyd Moseby, Dave Stieb, Brian Milner, Dave Baker, John Moses (did not sign), Mike Richardt (did not sign), Geno Petralli, Andre Robertson, and Mark Eichhorn. Of these only Dave Stieb can be classed as an impact player circa 1982. Moseby would bust out in 1983, but in 1982 he was looking like a bust following 3 straight seasons of an OPS+ between 70-79. So chalk up 1 impact player for the GM that is constantly placed on a pedestal by those who look back at the glory days wistfully with rose coloured glasses.
Gord Ash began his tenure as GM in 1995. We will look at the years of 1995-1999 in order to assess his record as a GM. The players he drafted that reached the show by the end of '99 were: Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly (did not sign), Billy Koch, John Bale, Casey Blake, and Vernon Wells. The only impact player circa 1999 was believe it or not Billy Koch, who had taken over the closer role and saved 31 games out of nowhere in his rookie season. Halladay had enjoyed a decent rookie campaign in '99, but an 82/79 K/BB rate does not an impact player make and that was what he did in 149.3 innings. Had Da Box existed back then I dare say the talent projectors would not have been impressed, and he hadn't even gone through his horrendous 10.64 ERA of 2000 or his rebuilding project of 2001 yet. Hardly an impact player circa 1999. Wells had 88 AB in '99 during which he went .261/.293/.352. Not an impact player yet. 1 impact player for Dr. Evil.
Billy Beane started in 1998. Therefore he will be measured from 1998-2002. By the end of 2002 his drafts had yielded 5 big leaguers: Mark Mulder, Jason Hart, Eric Byrnes, Barry Zito, and Ryan Ludwick. Chalk 2 impact players up for the man who wrote Joe Morgan's favourite bedtime story. Two-thirds of the big three is awesome.
Now we come to the current GM, love him or hate him. Since none of us are Nostradamus (Tell me your crystal ball told you Josh Towers would get his 2nd win on the last day of the season or that Brandon League would come back so strong- If you do you're just popping those 20/20 hindsight pills again.). He started in 2002 and it is now the end of the 2006 season. Let's review: Gillick: 9 players, 1 impact player; Ash: 6 players, 1 impact player; Beane: 5 players, 2 impact players. 10 JP Ricciardi picks have reached the major leagues of baseball at this time: Russ Adams, Dave Bush, Adam Peterson, Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Ryan Roberts, Tom (Nasty) Mastny, Zach Jackson, Casey Janssen, and Adam Lind. Any impact players yet? I would say no, when held up against Stieb, Koch, Mulder, and Zito. Bush and Hill are solid major leaguers. Marcum and Janssen look like possible league average SP. It's too early to tell with Lind, but you've gotta like what you see so far. Final score: 10 players, 0 impact players. However, it is far from the lousy drafting record I keep hearing about from the JP bashers. He has put more players in the big leagues than these other GMs. Let's hope he keeps that up and that some of them become impact players.
Ron, you would do better to stick to the facts regarding JP's drafting skills and if you can't, you can always go cheer your beloved Yankees on to yet another empty post-season defeat with the largest payroll in baseball. I don't understand how you can straddle the 3 camps of Yankee/Red Sox/Blue Jay fandom. To me, they are mutually exclusive camps. Belonging to one removes me from the other 2 and creates severe disdain for the other 2, but chacun a son gout I guess.
Nice breakdown, Action. And this:
He has put more players in the big leagues than these other GMs
...is exactly what JP said he was trying to do in focusing so heavily on college players. He wanted to draft guys that could get to Toronto quickly.
As I've said before, I'm disappointed that JP doesn't seem to have turned out to be a Billy Beane clone. But I'm not on board with the thinking that goes "He's not outstanding, therefore he's horrible". I think he's a colourful version of average. He incites people because he talks too much (and many of these same people would roast him for not being honest enough if he didn't talk so much).
Ron ... you can always go cheer your beloved Yankees
This baffles me too, Ron. You don't see anything unsportsmanlike in the Yankees buying the East, you think Cano and Wang are all that, you even call yourself a Yankee fan - Why do you spend so much time complaining about the Blue Jays? Why not just drop them and settle in on the Empire bandwagon?
First off let me say I like Aaron Hill. He's a decent hitter and good with the glove but I don't consider him an impact player. You're probably wondering what young players would I consider impact players. Names that jump out at me are Papelbon, Wang, Cano, Verlander, Weaver, and Liriano.
I wouldn't call either Wang or Cano "impact" players. Wang, in particular, is like Josh Towers Plus - he doesn't strike out anyone and gives up a lot of hits. If Ricciardi had drafted a player like Wang, you'd say he was just another low-ceiling, average pitcher. Verlander and Weaver are entirely moot, since both were drafted before the Jays had a pick.
Don't be coy. What do you really think? Are you saying this whole situation is a mess, we need to blow it all up and start over?
You must be. After all, you obviously can't be saying there's a strong foundation here, so let's get rid of the people who built it. That doesn't make any sense.
Gibbons is a poor strategic manager
Freely translated, this means "he makes many decisions I disagree with." We almost never - never - have enough information to know what the correct strategic move in a given situation should be. Never, I say. And on the larger scale of things, this is an ability slightly more important to a manager than having neat handwriting. But not very much. I don't hear nearly as many complaints about how Gibbons runs a game as I hear from Yankees fans about Joe Torre. Or as I used to hear about Cito Gaston.
how JP said he could win in the AL East with a 50 million dollar payroll
This might have been a reasonable statement to make in 2002. However, Ricciardi actually saying such a thing turns out to be something of an Urban Legend. Much more to the point, it's one thing to think you can win by spending $50 million when the Yankees are spending $100 million. But the Yankees have moved on, let us say. Big time.
You should never challenge a player to a fight
As js_magloire suspects, this does happen quite regularly but we normally don't hear about them. I promise you, Lilly-Gibbons was a sedate affair compared to Gaston-Wells.
Why is that so many people leave the Jays on a sour note?
Well, Billy Koch couldn't play and Buck Martinez couldn't manage, and they wanted to blame someone else for their own shortcomings. Shea Hillenbrand left Boston on an equally graceless note. I'll give you Tosca, but fired managers seldom have warm and fuzzy feelings about the teams that cut them loose. Shannon Stewart?
I wouldn't call either Wang or Cano "impact" players.
Wang we could argue about all night - people do. But Cano is the best second baseman in baseball not named Chase Utley. And who would want to be named "Chase Utley". He's the definition of an impact player.
Let's add to the previous post the draft records of two small-middle market GMs who continue to show up on the dance floor in October: Terry Ryan and Kevin Towers.
Terry Ryan from 1995-1999 graduated 9 draftees to the big leagues by 1999. They were: Mark Redman, AJ Hinch (did not sign), Doug Mientkiewicz, Robert Ramsay, Travis Lee, Jacque Jones, Chad Allen, Mike Lincoln, and JC Romero. None of these guys were impact major leaguers by 1999. Final score: 9 players, 0 impact players.
Kevin Towers took over the Padres' GM reigns in 1996. By 2000, 3 draftees had graduated to the big leagues: Kevin Nicholson, Dave Maurer, and Xavier Nady. None of these guys were impact major leaguers by 2000. Final score: 3 players, 0 impact players. Final score for the 6 GMs looked at in these 2 posts over their first 5 years of drafting? 30 drafts, 42 players, 4 'impact' players.
Of these 6 fine major league GMs, JP has put the most players in the big leagues in the ridiculously impatient time period alloted. Translation: development takes time. He has done what he said he would: get players to the big leagues. He can't reach out across the ocean and grab a Chien-Ming Wang or look south to the DR for a Robinson Cano, or a Francisco Liriano because in case you haven't noticed they cost a lot of money to sign these days and they're usually 16 when they're signed. JP has worked the draft quite well, all things considered. We do not know what Mr. Roger's policy is on spending big dough for high schoolers and non-drafted unproven 16 year olds.
Regarding: Verlander, Papelbon, and Weaver, Weaver was represented by Scott Boras and at the time the Jays were a financial sinkhole. They had neither the time, money, or patience to put up with that buffoon. He was also drafted 12th overall in the 2004 draft, while Verlander was drafted 2nd. I'm not sure if you recall, but the Jays drafted in the #16 slot that year. Papelbon was taken in the 4th round of the 2003 draft. He was passed over by all the teams at least once and generally 3 or 4 times. I think you're breaking out the 20/20 hindsight shades again Ron. Good on Papelbon that he has turned out to be 1st round type talent so far, but obviously nobody (not even the Red Sox) recognized that then.
Regarding John Gibbons managing abilities, check out the book: "Baseball Between the Numbers" by the Baseball Prospectus crew. There's a chapter on whether Joe Torre is a Hall of Fame manager or not. The basic jist of it is that managers don't really contribute a whole lot to whether their teams win or not. I'd have to agree. I find that Gibbons gets criticized most severely when his team doesn't execute properly and that's life for every manager. As for the two incidents that made you 'embarrased', they happen all the time in baseball. It doesn't make it right, but they do. Both incidents might have ranked a 1 on the Lou Piniella richter scale of confrontation, on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is mild and 10 is psychotic. We'll never really know how the team feels about him because that's not for public consumption and it shouldn't be.
In re: Gibby, I don't really care one way or the other, since as someone else mentioned, a manager has to be incredibly terrible to have any significant negative impact on his team's record. Don't get me wrong, I agree with wrong that Gibby is bad and has acted in a somewhat unprofessional manner this season, but he's not bad enough to matter.
NFH,
Is Cano that much better a hitter than Hill?
Um, yeah, he is. Cano posted a .305 EqA and 8.5 WARP3 this season, while Hill had a .259 EqA and a 6.32 WARP3, despite playing 33 more games. In a similar number of career games, Cano's WARP3 is 14.0 to Hill's 9.6. I like Hill too, but Cano is substantially better.
Cano will likely regress and Hill will likely get better.
Other than pure homerism, I can't see why you'd say this. Cano is seven months younger than Aaron Hill and to me he looks like a better athlete. Maybe marginally better. He hits for a much higher average. He crushes him in power... Cano outhomers Hill by a 3-1 margin and hits 50% more doubles. They're about even speed-wise. He also plays on a better team, and the quality of his team is a significant factor in determining whether a young player will develop well.
The only thing that Aaron Hill does better than Robinson Cano is to draw walks, and Hill doesn't have outstanding skill in that area. And all those walks are only enough to pull Hill even in getting on base.
The best way to compare Hill and Cano is that Hill has 68 extra-base hits in 1013 career plate appearances and Cano has 109 extra-base hits in 1059 career plate appearances. Hill's career XBH/PA is comparable to Chuck Knoblauch's; Cano's career XBH/PA is comparable to Jeff Kent's.
One thing no one has mentioned: all of J.P.'s off-season acquisitions have worked out. Burnett has proven to be a quality pitcher when healthy (compare him to Josh Beckett or Matt Clement). Ryan has been excellent all year. Overbay has been consistently reliable. Glaus has hit lots of long bombs, as advertised. Molina has hit well. That's 5-for-5.
As for Gibbons: Wells, Cat, Lilly and (I believe) Zaun have all said that they want to come back to Toronto. That says something about Gibbons as a manager. Sure, he makes mistakes sometimes - please, cut down on the hit and runs next year! - and he occasionally blows his stack, but he seems to have the confidence of his players. He's even cut down a bit on the bullpen switches. I would be happy to see him back in the dugout in 2007.
JP Ricciardi picks have reached the major leagues of baseball at this time: Russ Adams, Dave Bush, Adam Peterson, Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Ryan Roberts, Tom (Nasty) Mastny, Zach Jackson, Casey Janssen, and Adam Lind.
When judging a GM’s draft record, I don’t put a lot of stock
into counting how many players eventually make it to the majors. The list you
provided is a perfect example. Sure Ryan Roberts and Adam Peterson made it to
the majors but are they going to have a legitimate career in the MLB? I would
lean towards no for both. Casey Janssen was thrusted into the Jays rotation
because of injuries and the other pitching prospects weren’t ready. Out of the
list you provided, I’m willing to bet no more than 5 of those players will
still be on a MLB roster in 5 seasons. And no more than 1 of those players would be considered within the core of the team.
I don’t see any impact players in the farm system right now. Considering JP was a former scout and upon his hiring, he detailed how rebuilding the farm system was one of his goals, I’m disappointed in the results so far. I give him very little credit for selecting mostly low ceiling college players.
This baffles me too, Ron. You don't see anything unsportsmanlike in the Yankees buying the East, you think Cano and Wang are all that, you even call yourself a Yankee fan - Why do you spend so much time complaining about the Blue Jays? Why not just drop them and settle in on the Empire bandwagon?
This is where you and I disagree. You say the Yanks bought the East and I say the Yanks won the East with a lot of shrewd moves. Core players like Jeter, Posada, Williams, Rivera, Cano, Wang, Cabrera, and Matsui were drafted or signed as rookie free agents. Abreu and Lidle were acquired through a trade. Sure it was basically a salary dump but every other team in baseball had the chance to acquire those players. The Yanks simply stepped up to the plate to grab them.
I see nothing unsportsmanlike from the Yankees because every transaction they make is within the collective bargaining agreement. The Yankees don’t do anything illegal when putting together their ballclub. Unlike other cheapskate owners, the Yankees just happen to have an owner that really likes to win and will spend the appropriate funds to make it happen.
Would you complain or stop following the Jays if Ted Rogers announced he would bump the payroll to 175 million dollars next season? What I found amusing is that the people that complained spending around baseball was out of hand when the Jays payroll was around 50 million didn't say anything when Uncle Ted opened up his wallet last off-season.
I’ve been very critical of the Jays recently. I like to call this tough love. I’m tough on the Jays but I love following the team. If I didn’t care about the Jays, I wouldn’t be posting on this site. Believe it or not, I actually watched almost everygame this season and enjoyed a lot of them. I will never have a stronger rooting interest in the Yankees than the Jays.
Don't be coy. What do you really think? Are you saying this
whole situation is a mess, we need to blow it all up and start over?
You must be. After all, you obviously can't be saying there's a strong foundation
here, so let's get rid of the people who built it. That doesn't make any sense.
Nope I don’t think the Jays should completely gut the team and start from scratch. The Jays have some quality pieces to build around (i.e. Doc, Ryan, Wells, Overbay, etc…). It’s just that I don’t have faith the current regime will be able to get the Jays over the hump and into the playoffs/compete for the World Series. It’s much easier to go from 75 to 85 wins, than 85 wins to 95 wins.
I want to make it clear I have nothing personal against JP as a person. I just feel like based on his track record, he no longer should be the GM. In his 5 years at the helm, he has delivered mediocrity. Mediocrity isn’t going to get the Jays into the playoffs.
No, sadly it won't move mountains of opinion. Doesn't hurt, but I doubt few who would have preferred Boston before the season would have changed their mind based on team performance. Boston isn't showing any signs of becoming uncompetitive any time soon, unless they keep trading quality pitchers for outfielders they have little use for. Or trading whatever it was for the Eric Hinskes of the world.
I believed for certain that the Yankees would finish where the Red Sox have this year, but largely due to surprise years from Cano, Wang, Cabrera, Proctor, Myers and Mussina (and until August, Villone), they exceeded my expectations. Then the usual lightning in a bottle players/retreads like Bruney and the cash-dump trades of high enough return that propel them to where they always end up.
The Jays may have gone 5-for-5 on their acquisitions (and the contract crows won't allow that determination until all dollars have been paid and return performance statistics weighed against said monetary value) but they really do need their kids to step up and perform at a high level to succeed. Even getting everything you could reasonably expect out of a dozen good- to high-quality players on the team isn't enough. To do what Minnesota and Detroit and Oakland and those damn Yankees have done, and to make economics work, the young guys must be good or great for the team to enjoy success. Accardo has to step it up next year. And Janssen. And Marcum. And Lind. And Hill. And Adams. And Chacin. Maybe McGowan, most certainly League. Perhaps Towers. Whether the Jays spend an extra $20-million or not, it will be many of those young guys who determine the success.
I'd expect free agents who are looking at chances of winning will be using much the same logic of looking at the quality of young players as well as veteran firepower. And Boston isn't shabby in that regard.
Re: Cano and Hill. If you're asking me which one I would rather have long term, I think it's Cano. He has an awfully sweet swing and is a tremendous athlete. Hill is far better defensively at this point and I don't know if anyone stands in on the double play pivot better than he does. Cano's OBP is extremely batting average dependent, meaning if he ever does "regress to the mean", he will probably have a terrible OBP. It's quite possible he will regress to the mean as he had a .363 BABIP this year, which ranked 4th in the AL. Hill, is about average or slightly below at getting on base without a hit, and definitely has less power at this point than Mr. Cano. I think Cano will be the better 2B in the end.
However, if you were to ask me which 2B this organization could've afforded to sign and develop it is definitely Hill. Cano was signed by the Yankees as a 17 or 18 year old out of the DR in 2001. He took 4+ years to develop, which is very quick for a non drafted free agent. Hill was drafted in June, 2003 and took 2+ years to develop. They arrived around the same time in 2005. Cano went to the highest bidder on the non-drafted free agant market. Hill was probably thrilled to be taken in the 1st round. Don't get me wrong he's a solid ballplayer and I love to watch him, but is he definite 1st round talent? I'm not sure.
This is where I'd like to see Rogers' money spent: player procurement and development. I have no clue how much is being spent here, but whatever it is I don't think it's enough. This is how the Yankees rebuild their farm system, by outbidding everyone for Contreras, Matsui, El-Duque, Wang, Melky Cabrera, and Cano, not to mention Williams and Rivera. When you add this to average drafting skills and taking on other teams' bad contracts and being in on the bidding of every major free agent under the sun, it makes competing with them rather difficult don't it? They draw upon so many different sources of talent compared to us, and I'm not sure if that's by Ricciardi's design or Rogers' lack of desire to spend what it takes to load up on potential talent for the system, or both. Still it will be interesting to follow the careers of these two 2B and see which one turns out to be the better one. I think it's too early to call it, maybe in 3 years time we'll know better, but it does look like Cano right now.
Ron, that is cherry picking. A lot of the players I listed in the other GMs records didn't make much of an impact either: Brian Milner, Dave Baker, Mike Richardt, Andre Robertson, John Bale, Jason Hart, Ryan Ludwick, Robert Ramsay, Kevin Nicholson, Dave Maurer were on the lists of those other GMs. In the 30 years worth of drafts I count 4 impact players from these six GMs given the 5 year time period you and others are imposing, which as we have seen is ridiculously short in player development terms. Player development takes time. An accurate assessment of Ricciardi's skills at the draft cannot be made yet. All of the other GMs I looked at were hired at least 4 years before JP and therefore have had at least 9 years for their players to break through. This is why I shortened the draft study to look at only the first 5 years as a GM and what things looked like when the 5 years were up. Go ahead twist the facts however you want to. The fact remains graduating an 'impact' player to the big leagues within 5 years of taking over your first GM job is very hard to do, as demonstrated by the other 5 GMs.
The direct quote from Ricciardi's first press conference is: "I can't say that I have a 5 year plan. I just want to win." Which is pretty much what he says now. Somehow people mangled this quote into this 5 year plan and a World Series win in 2006, which is insane. The quote is in this article: http://observer.thecentre.centennialcollege.ca/sports/jayshiregm111401.htm Yes, eventually Moseby, Eichhorn, Halladay, Lilly, Blake, Wells, Byrnes, Redman, Mientkiewicz, Lee, Jones, Romero, and Nady became decent to impact major leaguers as well as many more drafted by Gillick, Ash, Beane, Ryan, and Towers, but that was with the benefit of time, which is something you and others are not willing to give Ricciardi. Is it because he yaps too much? I know he said he could do it on $50 million, but the Yanks were doing it with $100 million. The stakes have been raised. I'd say it will take $100 million in this division and more diversified spending for amateur talent. Drafting Travis Snyder in the 1st round is a step in the right direction and a sign that he's not a completely stubborn, dogmatic ass. We also don't know how much he's being handcuffed by the Rogers folks in terms of amateur talent, which in case you haven't noticed is quite expensive these days.
One other thing. I am sick of hearing the criticism that JP is cresting on the play of Rios, Wells, Halladay, Johnson, League etc. Every other GM in the history of the game has taken stock of the farm cupboard upon arrival and decided who to keep, who to trade, and who to let go to create space for the next wave of talent. Did Gillick refuse to use Iorg, Whitt, Clancy, Barfield etc because Bavasi drafted them? Did Beane insist on dumping Giambi, Tejada, Hudson, and Chavez because Alderson brought them into the fold? How about Ash and Delgado, Gonzalez, Green, Hentgen and Guzman? That complaint is the biggest load I've ever heard. Instead of crediting him with evaluating what was there and keeping a lot of the best players and trading or shedding the rest, the critics dump on him because he didn't draft them. It's fine to criticize him because you think he talks too much or he says the same things over and over, but don't criticize him for everything he's done wrong without giving him credit for the things he's done right. How about John Bale for Jayson Werth, and then Jayson Werth for Jason Frasor. Talk about trading up. Has he made mistakes? Yup. Has every GM? Yup. I'm happy to be disappointed in an 87 win season and looking forward to next year, even though the Red Sox and Yankees are going to sign every free agent available this offseason.