I have the Jays at 75 wins and so voted 71-75. I do think that they are more likely to win 80 than 70 though...

I don't think that Lawrie will play any significant role on the club this year, but I could certainly be wrong about that.

I have them at 71, so we know who the first two guys sitting 71-75 in the battter's box anonymous poll are.

I don't see Romero pitching as well, nor Cecil winning 15 again. I think Hill and LInd will be closer to their career OPS+ (97 and 109) than their 2010 numbers, and i think Escobar will do well. But even with an improved season from Encarnacion and a season from Rivera that beats the low expectations many seem to have for him, I don't see the Jays winning anywhere near their 2010 total in this very tough division.

Teasing tomorrow's Yankee preview ...

Every AL East team will be over .500 except Baltimore, who will be terrible. Two AL East teams will make the post-season. Check back in about nine hours to see who's where ...

I see the Jays as being about a .500 team, maybe worse. AA has likely added enough pieces (Davis, EE, the bullpen additions) to keep the team from completely sucking. But the fact is that the Jays are in rebuild mode. It's probably going to get worse before it gets better. Short-term pain for long-term gain. We hope.

I'm bullish on this team but also have concerns about Romero, Arencibia's defence/game calling, Lind's defence & Davis' offence.  Feel good about Snider, Bautista, Escobar, Morrow, Litsch, Lind's offence, Davis' defence & decently good about Drabek.

83 wins -- a few games back of Tampa, a few ahead of Baltimore.

I'd put them at about 84 wins.  I was a bit more bullish, but the velocity complaints of Cecil and inflamed "elbow" of Morrow have me a bit spooked.  I like the bullpen and am quietly confident about the offence.

83 wins and 4th in the division. Baltimore will be close behind, maybe even .500 as Mick predicts.

Hoping for 91 wins. So I chose 91-95 (eternal optimist) but I am most comfortable at 88 or 89 wins.

AA worked hard at depth improvement. I expect more from the #5 spot.Actually I expect the #5 to be good. I am not sure who is # 5, Drabek, Litsch, & Reyes are the 4th & 5th right now but I will count the most starts from anyone not Romero, Morrow or Cecil as the 4 & 5 spots.

I love the depth every where especially at LV & the rebuilt pen. I expect decent offense from everyone, except JPA who has an excuse being a rookie.

Lastly AA & Farrell should be preparing this team to compete for the extra wild card next year, so IMO they need results that are as good or better than 2010.

78 wins

• Morrow and Drabek will have very good years
• Romero and Cecil will regress and/or miss significant time
• Snider will have a monster year.
• Lind will return to form
• Hill will sadly have a second bad year
• Bautista 35 HR
• Lawrie a regular by August
• Bullpen will be very good
• One other top pitching prospect will get 10+ starts from late-summer on
  

I really have no idea how many games the Jays will win. They have so many younger players, which makes it harder to predict. The young'uns could take steps forward, they could endure growing pains, or some of them could wash out. And, it's not clear how much Lind and Hill will get back.

If everything breaks well, they could win 90 or more. Or they could win 70 if it all goes bad. So I'll split the difference and say exactly 81-81 and fourth place (but close enough to the Yankees to make various people named Steinbrenner very unhappy).

The Hardball Times writers have been making pre-season predictions. They didn't do win totals but predicted order of finish in the division. The jays got the following votes:

1st 0
2nd 2
3rd 4
4th 14
5th 2

and two votes for them to make the playoffs as the AL WC!

Pitching  and timely hitting can mean alot.  I think there are enough arms there if one faulters another will pick it up.

If the bullpen can get healthy this year, I really like it. 

82 wins!