1) DET - 2) CLE - 3) CWS - 4) MIN - 5) KCR

I see Detroit running away with this one.  That offense is just too powerful with the additions of Cabrera and Renteria.  You know you're deep when you have a hall of fame catcher batting in the 9 slot for you.  CLE should compete with NY for the AL Wild card.

Just going on quick thoughts for each...
Chicago - rebuilding but don't know it
Cleveland - climbed the ladder last year, probably due to drop a bit this
Detroit - was '06 real?  Will the trades do the job to push them over the top?
KC - Uh, no
Minnesota - rebuilding, but have shown quick growth before

So I'm going Det - Cle - Min - KC - Chicago with Chicago being a total disaster zone by years end.  The wild card will not come from this division or the west this year, as the west is weak beyond one team and the central has two solid teams but I expect one to decline this year while the others aren't quite ready for prime time.        

It's interesting that over the last couple of years, the NL central has been considered a great four man race... and suddenly it's right back to two. Many were hailing this as the strongest division in baseball, and now it's right back to a two man race.

For the same reason people think the Jays will improve, will the White Sox crumble John? 

A lot of their guys had bad years, but I still think a team with Dye, Thome, Konerko, AJP, Cabrera, Swisher and now Quienten - will still be a force for a while.  They wont be higher than 3rd, but they will stick around longer than people think.  Their BP is also solid, Denks-Dotel-Linebrink is one I could live with.  The main question is their rotation.  If Floyd takes a step forward and Contraras comes back, this team is in the hunt for sure.

Swisher is the key. Moving from the cavernous Coliseum to the claustrophobic Cell will do wonders for his stats across the board. It'll increase his homers, and probably his walks too. Having to go tiptoe around Thome, Swisher, Konerko and Dye three times a game is going to cause starting pitchers some major headaches, especially at the Cell.

They need one of their starters nobody expects anything from to pitch at or around Buehrle and Vazquez's level to compete. That's a bit much to ask of Danks and Floyd, but youneverknow.

I feel like everyone's a little overoptimistic about Detroit.  This is a team that needed Magglio Ordonez to hit .363, Curtis Granderson to hit 23 triples (both with BABIPs close to .400) and Placido Polanco to hit .341 just to be an also-ran in 2007.  They're counting on wildly unlikely repeats from those three and Edgar Renteria (BABIP of .375, usually kind of horrible), good seasons from the undead corpses of Pudge, Sheffield and Kenny Rogers, they need D-Train and Bonderman to be a solid 2-3 despite ERAs above 5.00 last year...

I mean, Cabrera's great, but he's not that great.  I think Cleveland's been counted out way too soon.

I voted for the Indians.  They are not likely to win 96 games again, but they are young and they will probably beat last year's Pythagorean total of 91.  That will probably be enough.

Just curious Simon, but how can you say Cabrera isn't that great?  Just because he was out in the boonies of Florida for a couple years doesn't diminish the fact he is on an HOF career path - all at the young age of 24! 

He is going to garner a contract which is 2nd in total value to Arod during the off season.  And he is worth it. 

Magglio will revert somewhat, but him, Renteria, and Polanco aren't *that* far off their career norms.

I think you're taking Simon's "not that great" out of context.  I think he meant not great enough to compensate for the deficiencies that Simon attributes to the Tigers.

The Sox have been looking weak for years, but finally showed it last year.  Last year 3 of their regulars were sub-30 - two with OPS+ under 75.  Not one hitter sub-30 had an OPS+ of above 90 outside of Josh Fields at third who was at 101 at age 24 but with a 308 OBP.  The Jays on the other hand had 4 regulars under 30, Hill at 107, Lind at 77, Wells at 85 and Rios at 122.  Adams at 83 would be a hopeful youngster in ChiTown. 

Pitching, on the other hand, Chicago was better at.  4 guys with 10+ starts under age 30.  Garland & Buehrle both solid starters.  Danks & Floyd though were 90 and under for ERA+, or basically in Towers territory.  The Jays had 3 guys under 30 with 10+ starts but, as we all know, they were at 108/109/117 for ERA+ thus quantity and quality.  Plus, of course, Roy was 30 last year and still the ace. 

Chicago's pen was Jenks then..er..gulp.  No one else was at 100+ for ERA+ with 25 or more innings pitched.  Lots of youth though so some hope.  The Jays had 5 of 6 guys with over 12 innings who were mainly relievers over 100, with the 6th being Frasor at 98. 

Chicago has some kids, but they haven't shown much outside of their closer (always a risky slot for injuries), Garland/Buehrle, and Fields.  For a team that finished with 90 losses that isn't good enough to expect a turn around anytime soon.