Home runs are actually up this year. What total will the 2006 major-league leader hit? (And who will it be?)
| 60 or more |  18 (13.33%) |
| 50-59 | 94 (69.63%) |
| 40-49 | 22 (16.30%) |
| Less than 40 | 1 (0.74%) |
135 votes | 9 featured comments
Adam Dunn will hit 53. Nobody else reaches 50, though Pujols gets to 48 in an MVP season.
I think at least 4 guys will hit more than 50. First, you have Pujols. The only two athletes on pace to break the homerun record now, besides Bonds, are Pujols and A-Rod. A-Rod's first 5 seasons he hit 36, 23, 42, 42, 41. Then at about 26 and 27 years of age, he hit 52 and 57. Pujols, in his first 5 seasons, has hit 37, 34, 43, 46, 41. Now he is about 26 years old or so. The way he is hitting, I can see him topping 50. So Pujols leads the NL with 55 homeruns. Followed by Jones (53), and Dunn (51). The AL will be lead by Chris Shelton, who is currently on pace to hit 80 homeruns, with 50 dingers. Tied with him, also with 50 homeruns, will be David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez. Just behind, with 47, is Travis Hafner.
Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Chris Shelton (faint echoes of Brady
Anderson) each hit over 50, with Pujols' 57 (and a .360 average)
leading the majors.
I think the fact that A-Rod plays at Yankee stadium makes it fairly unlikely that he'll hit 50. Haven't had a 50-home-run hitter since 1961.
I'll go with Thome and Pujols.
I'm wondering, do you think that Pujols has a shot at the Triple Crown then? If he hits 57 homers [he had 3 yesterday] and hits .360, will he still have a shot at the Crown? How many RBI's is he going to have to have in order to win that category?
I'm not sure that the lineup in front of him will be on base enough for him to win the RBI title... but it should be fun to watch.
Adam Dunn is my pick for the home run leader this year. He has the best
power stroke in the majors and is actually starting to make some
contact this year. All this and the fact that he's playing in one of
the best launching pads in the majors makes him seem like the most
likely candidate to outslug the competition.
Pujols in the triple crown categories the last three years:
Average: .359 (1st), .331(fifth) , .330 (second)
HR : 43(4th), 46(2nd), 41(3rd)
RBI : 124(4th) ,123(3rd) ,117 (2nd)
Without Andruw Jones and Derrek Lee going crazy, he wins it last year. Pujols has a shot at the triple crown; the only year he finished out of the top ten in any category was his rookie year when his 37 homeruns were good for 11th. Last three years, top five each time. RBI might be a problem, but he did manage second last year with similar players hitting in front of him. If he hits 57 homeruns and bats .360, which would basically mean replicating last year, plus 18 additional hits, with 16 of those being homeruns, he's a lock I would think. But his usual season is enough to have a shot anyway.
Average: .359 (1st), .331(fifth) , .330 (second)
HR : 43(4th), 46(2nd), 41(3rd)
RBI : 124(4th) ,123(3rd) ,117 (2nd)
Without Andruw Jones and Derrek Lee going crazy, he wins it last year. Pujols has a shot at the triple crown; the only year he finished out of the top ten in any category was his rookie year when his 37 homeruns were good for 11th. Last three years, top five each time. RBI might be a problem, but he did manage second last year with similar players hitting in front of him. If he hits 57 homeruns and bats .360, which would basically mean replicating last year, plus 18 additional hits, with 16 of those being homeruns, he's a lock I would think. But his usual season is enough to have a shot anyway.
I don't think anyone breaks 50 this year but David Ortiz gets to 48.
The way the ball's been flying out of Busch III, I figure Pujols will nudge out Dunn. Perhaps by an inside-the-parker