I voted yes, like the great majority of voters so far. I think all the yes votes speak to Lincecum's potential and the fact that we think we know what we are getting with Rios. If we end up keeping Rios for his age 27 season and beyond, I'm certain it would not be a bad thing. Trading him next offseason might even be a good idea, depending on how Travis Snider, Adam Lind, and Reed Johnson do in '08.

Either way, we'll need someone to replace Burnett next year - Unless the Jays get somewhere next year, I don't see him signing an extension. If he does not opt out, then his arm is falling off and he essentially needs to be replaced anyway.

From a Giants perspective, I really have to wonder if this trade makes any sense: when you're rebuilding, do you really want to trade young and affordable players for slightly older and slightly more expensive ones that are not necessarily better? At best it seems like a latteral move for the Giant, unless they believe the Lincecum injury risk is considerable or they simply believe Rios is going to be a significantly better player.

From a Giants perspective, I really have to wonder if this trade makes any sense: when you're rebuilding, do you really want to trade young and affordable players for slightly older and slightly more expensive ones that are not necessarily better?

I think it absolutely makes sense from the Giants point of view.  They have starting pitching on their team and nothing else.  If they go into the season with Zito, Cain, Lowry, Sanchez and Corriea as their starters, they'll have one of the better staffs in the NL.  They're not averse to salary (exhibit A:  Zito).  Rios is protected for three years and the Giants are looking for a offensive centrepiece.  They need more than Rios, but it's probably the best start they can find.

It needs to be noted that this trade wouldn't particularly help us in terms of 2008 competitiveness unless a subsequent trade or signing improved our corner OF production.

Johnson/Stairs/Lind in some combination at the OF corners, particularly with McDonald at SS, does not make for a competitive offence. 

 

Sabean was asked who their clean up hitter would be next year and he listed Benjie Molina as a possibility - and when Randy Winn is your main offensive weapon you can certianly see the rationale.

I say do it.

It's a risky move but we need to take risks to overhaul the other AL teams. The status quo won't get us a playoff spot and 4 pitchers with Ace quality potential (including a motivated Burnett in a walk year) give me more hope than the same team as last year given we could create a less righty centred lineup.

 

 

 

 

 

I'd love this move just to hear the fairweather Jays fans cry out "Who??".

Part of me just wants to do it because it would differentiate from the norm. I'm tired of status quo, I'm tired of safe draft picks, and I'm tired of projectability. Lincecum provides uncertainty with health and performance long-term, but he has amazing talent and his upside is off the chart. The Jays haven't seen a young arm like that in the system since Halladay/Carpenter/Escobar. Those are the types of risks a team in Toronto's position should take given the disparity in salaries between them and their competitiors. I'd much rather trade Snider and Lind in this deal, but unfortunately, Ricciardi just hasn't drafted well enough to produce high upside tradeable assets.

On the flip side, I always believe the team trading the all-star position player for the young NL starter is taking the bigger risk. Not only is young pitching highly unpredictable with health/performance, but switching leagues is also a headache. The American League is the big time. I can't see a "pushover" team anywhere in the league, other than maybe Baltimore if they trade Bedard and Tejada. Lincecum has the stuff to make the transition easier (like Burnett did), which is why I preferred him over Cain, but it's still a hurdle he'd have to jump over in addition to all the other risks involved with acquiring a young pitcher.

Ultimately........Do I want this trade to happen? Yes. Do I think this trade will happen? No. Sabean seems to be completely indecisive and too afraid to lose another potential ace, and honestly I don't blame him.

I think it absolutely makes sense from the Giants point of view.  They have starting pitching on their team and nothing else.

Yeah, I think people underestimate just how profoundly crappy the Giants offense really was last year.    Just take a look at Matt Cain's game log from last year: in the 19 games in which he gave up 2 ER or less, he had only five wins to show for it.  Ouch.  Rios would be the best offensive player on the Giants by a mile, and a young five-tooled CF is exactly the type of player you want to rebuild an offense around.  I think a Lincecum-Rios swap makes logical sense for both sides, but the hesitation of the Giants doesn't give me a lot of hope that it will actually get done.

I posted in the other thread my reasons for opposing the trade, but here's another way of looking at it. Suppose the Jays owned Lincecum, but also had a rotation of Halladay, Burnett, McGowan and Marcum -- plenty deep, and more in the minors on the way. But right field was slotted to be filled by Matt Stairs and Reed Johson, two guys who together will struggle to be league-average next year, and there are no outfield prospects above Low-A ball. Along come the Giants offering complete package rightfielder Alex Rios for Lincecum straight-up, a five-tool player who would upgrade the team offensively and defensively and who's open to a long-term contract signing. Wouldn't you grab that deal with both hands?

Alex Rios is not the problem for the Jays, and Tim Lincecum is not the key to a playoff berth. Trading Rios away for a young starting pitcher, no matter how exciting, doesn't make sense to me.

As a thought, presuming the Rios-Lincecum trade goes through (and I think it will), what about a followup Burnett-Kemp deal?

I presume we might need to add something to that, but I think that might be an excellent trade for both teams as well.  The Dodgers have no room for Kemp anymore, as they have a Pierre-Jones-Ethier OF, and with no DH, they would be forced to keep one of Kemp or Ethier on the bench.

I realize that would weaken the rotation, but I can't imagine any Jays fan that wouldn't do it.  I'm not sure what we would have to add, but the Dodgers don't seem to mind trading Kemp, they just don't want to trade Kershaw.

And if you don't know who Matt Kemp is, just wait.  My money says he'll be better than Wells.

No move is done in a vacuum. Blair says that JP has some plans that he'd go through with if the trade went through, even if nobody knows what said plans are.

As a Giants fan, I like this move. I'm a Blue Jays fan, too, in the Other League. If Ricciardi shops Rios to any other team, I would be disappointed, but not surprised, given the lack of good corporate governance from Paul Godfrey. I fail to see how Ricciardi can say "no moves of consequence", then trade the only All-Star on the team for a rookie pitcher who isn't needed. Doc, AJ, McGowan, Litsch, Marcum, Janssen are a good rotation with depth. Rios will have an MVP year, regardless of where he plays. If Ricciardi trades him, the Blue Jays will never, ever live it down. Ricciardi is to the Blue Jays what Dubya is to the USA: a train wreck with carte blanche.

Jordan

I hear ya....but...

We all think the world of Rios, but in 2007 he hit 24 homers and drove in 85 runs - nice, but far from great. The question to me is would Lind hit 24 homers and drive in 85 runs in a full year at this stage of his development? I think he could, at least a 75%+ chance. SO - we basically replace, or nearly replace Rios' production. Johnson gives us the lead off guy we haven't had since...Johnson, before he broke his back. I'll bet  the farm: Thomas - ready to go from day one instead of Mid-June, Wells - fixed(ish), Overbay - with the screws out of his wrist, Zaun - with two non-broken hands and Glaus having been given a reprieve by the Governor just before his execution for drugs - and having had an off-season to get his various gimpy parts improved, if not better....when all taken together, will give us a seriously improved offense.

Given all that potential hitting improvement...Lincecum would be a HUGE addition to Roy, AJ, McG and Marcum/Janssen/Litsch/Purcey AND a great fix when AJ goes walkabout next year. AND, he and McGowan would give us two really great Aces, that we'll control cheaply for 5 more years (!) to build on over the next decade.

I think many of us fans are looking at the teams 2007 offense and using it as a base - you can't do that - 2007 was a medical disaster of a generational, indeed a biblical proportion. This team's offence will be dramatically better in 08 with or without Rios. Having said that - if Rios is still with us that ain't half bad either!

Mylegacy, on the whole I'm with you about Lineceum - I think. But it is worth noting two things about Alex Rios.

1- He is entering his age 27 season. This means we control his 27, 28, 29 seasons, in which he is likely to be tremendous. I think that while most players are not much better in those seasons than in their 25/26 ones, Rios will be. Offensively he matured at the age of 25, consolidated those gains at the age of 26, and at 27/28/29, I think he has a good chance of putting something special together. Just from watching him as much as we do it's not hard to see that he is an unsual player - and I don't mean that he's better than everyone, just that he is actually different. Mechanically, it took him a long time to learn to pull the ball with power at the major league level, and I think that now that he has done it well for two seasons, he is ready to bust out again.

2- He is excellent defensively. All the metrics I've seen say so. Adam Lind won't be providing this kind of defense.

I will say this: if Ricciardi intends for this trade to be followed by another, say where the likes of Janssen, Litsch and Thigpen are moved for a decent corner outfielder, then I'd be less opposed. But if JP is serious about giving Matt Stairs 100+ starts in right field, then no thanks.

I'm in favour of the deal, but I can't help but wonder where Lincecum-mania is stemming from.  I have a hard time believing that everyone would be supportive of a trade of Rios for Bailey, Hughes, Gallardo or Pelfrey (or even the Millers), yet they were all considered better prospects than Lincecum eight months ago.  They had rougher debuts, bar Gallardo, but then Lincecum's wasn't lights out.

Too much stock can be put into a abbreviated rookie year, I think.  That's probably why JP won't throw in a prospect.

So Jays fans, would you trade Rios for Gallardo?  Bailey?