Felipe Lopez has played the equivalent of about 1 full season of major league baseball. The youngster was dealt in the off-season to the Cincinnati Reds for two above average prospects - which makes 3 shortstops that J.P. has sent packing. This season will tell us a lot about the kind of career we might expect Felipe to have. The main concern this year has to be playing time: Barry Larkin is still in place and will likely get his 300-400 PA, which means that Felipe will compete with Brandon Larson for PT (unless the latter is traded).

Lopez has been compared to Miguel Tejada by some, and to Alex Gonzalez by others (including the author of this article). The end result will likely see him somewhere in between with the bat in his hands. Felipe's future value will depend a lot on whether he can handle shortstop over the long-term. His fate on defence might be similar to one-time organisational mate Tony Batista - shuffled around the infield, eventually to land at third base.

Instead of looking at on-base, slugging percentage and their raw stats, I will focus on assessing the development of their batting skills.

It's Groundhog Day, and you know what that means ... it's time for 2003 pre-season nominations for the Annual Batter's Box Joaquin Andujar Award.

Okay, so it's not realistically possible to call anything "first annual," and since we've never done this before, it's pretty likely that you don't "know what that means." Besides, if we learned anything from Andujar, it was his credo that the best one-word description for baseball was "you never know."

So sit back, relax, enjoy -- and participate in -- this inaugural edition of an award nomination process that will someday be known more familiarly as the "YouNeverKnows."

It begins with irrelevant song lyrics and a meandering prologue, but eventually, Peter Gammons gets around to a good look at the junior circuit in his latest column on ESPN. His most interesting observations include this summary of the A's philosophy:

Beane believes that the season comes in three parts: the first two months, when you figure out what you have; the next two months, when you take care of what you need; and the final two months, when you get into the passing lane and floor it.

The 2003 Blue Jays' batting order has been a lively topic here before, and Bob Elliott of the Sun goes straight to the source in his latest column, quoting Carlos Tosca at length.

"It will hit me all at once one day during a spring game once I see what everyone can do," says the Little General, who also wants one-on-one chats about the lineup with all his regulars.

The skipper's declared preference to alternate L-R bats makes it sound like Stew-Hinske-Wells-Delgado-Phelps-Cat-Woodward to me, and although it's not my first choice, it's not bad. Puts the pressure on Wells more than I would, but it's subject to change -- last year at this time, we were told Vernon was the fourth OF and primary DH, which never happened. Carlos has talked to the coaches, but if J.P. gets a vote...

I know, it was only last Tuesday that I posted a "prospecting" article featuring Aaron Gleeman's list, but it is that time of year, and the gang at Baseball Prospectus have not only weighed in with their Top 40+, but their approach is fascinating.

Steve Z linked to Part One of the BP roundtable in one of his comments on our previous thread, but here it is again. Rany Jazayerli listed his picks, then the other staff writers commented publicly. It's an excellent discussion, not only of the prospects, but of the different weights people give to the variables in compiling such a list. Yesterday, the Prospectus panel continued their friendly argument in Part Two, and Rany adjusted his ratings according to the opinions of his peers. Here's how it looks now:

This would have been a better fit in our football threads last weekend, but Jim Caple has come up with XXXVII reasons why the World Series is better than the Super Bowl. I'm sure we can think of XII's of others.

Craig mentioned this already, but Jayson Stark had some fun conjuring up an all-Pet team (nothing to do with Penthouse; it's in the sidebar near the bottom of the column) to play in the latest incarnation of what should have remained "the Murph" in San Diego -- Petco Park, a.k.a. "the litter box." He got lots of great reader feedback, too.

At the risk of starting another debate with Robert, here are Leonard Koppett's thoughts on connecting the result of the All-Star game to home-field advantage in the World Series. Like me, Koppett believes it's a "hare-brained, not-thought-through, irrelevant, self-defeating and just plain rotten idea" and concludes baseball should leave well enough alone.

Here's two more ads I've spotted in subway stations for the 2003 Jays, reincorporating the Baseball North theme:

- A baseball glove whose inside has been padded with wool

- Vernon Wells's uniform, with his batting gloves attached to his sweater as if they were children's mittens

I thought they were kind of cool, so I figured they were worth wasting a weblog entry on. :-)

Bruce Froemming, longtime NL and MLB umpire, dealt the already shaky reputation of umps another blow by acidly couching his distaste for umpire administrator Cathy Davis in anti-Semitic terms. If you haven't already read the exact pithy phrase he used, check it out if you have the stomach for it.

Froemming has always been regarded as one of the best balls-strikes guys in the game, with a "one of the boys" reputation that he himself took too far when he went autograph hunting in the Dodgers' locker room in 1996.

I see two important issues here being raised. First, this is right up there in the Campanis/Lott/Rocker pantheon; when public figures make comments so repugnant in front of a microphone, it begs questions such as "If that's what they're saying in public, what are they actually thinking? And how often must they think it?"

How can he keep us on tenterhooks like this? Two columns now since Jose Cruz became Barry Bonds's caddy in San Fran, and still Richard Griffin hasn't slammed JP for not getting something from the Giants in trade. Possibly this is a sign that Rich is starting to understand the new baseball economy, about a year later than the Blue Jays front office. Or maybe this revealing line from this column tells the story:

The reader e-mail when we lamented the fact Jose Cruz Jr. was not offered a contract ran heavily in favour of the club and against Cruz.

You just know that had to be tough to swallow.

Our friends across town have a new server, a new look and a "new" Matthew Elmslie column. It's just the thing for a January cold snap -- a walk down memory lane from a sunny, warm September ballgame, sprinkled with Matthew's usual astute and amusing observations, and fun to read.

Coincidentally, I kept my own diary throughout the very next game. With three fantasy leagues hanging in the balance for me, Halladay was awesome, and it was the great Ernie Harwell's last game in the broadcast booth. I swear, my stuff would have brought a tear to your eye. Of course, I didn't have anywhere to publish it then (imagine, writing all day just to amuse yourself) and now I have no idea where my notes are. My faulty memory is no longer a problem -- if I have a thought of any kind, I just post it here.

Our newest stalwart, Robert Dudek, has loaned me a copy of Bill James's 1984 Baseball Abstract, for which I can't thank him enough. Already, I found something interesting.

I'm fiddling with an article to be posted here on -- well, eventually -- which will look at some of the great "under the radar" signings of this past offseason. Here's one that won't make the list:

Lee Sinins of baseballimmortals.net reports this morning, "The Rockies signed P Darren Oliver to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training."

As any roto player can tell you, it is no accident, campers, that Darren Oliver's professional anagram is "I Love Earn'd RR" ("I love earned runs") ... putting him in Coors Field ... I don't know what to say. It may be the worst minor league contract ever signed, from a club's perspective.

So, share: what do you think are the worst (or alternately, the least likely to pay off in any way) moves of the offseason so far? Neifi Perez, yah. Who else?

If you prefer reasonable, intelligent baseball writing in a Toronto newspaper, look to Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail. He does his homework, sticks to facts, and enlightens. Here, from yesterday's paper, is an excellent summary of the nomadic state of Bud Selig's auxiliary backup team, and Blair followed up today with another informative piece.

Unlike another local columnist who just tosses off lines like "those pesky Expos minority owners and their "racketeering" lawsuit", Blair tells us what's going on. If you're interested in this story, here's the view from D.C., where a Washington Times report says:

...baseball executives remain quite fearful of another botched entry into a new market, resulting in another weak franchise similar to those in Miami and Tampa, Fla.

If they're fearful, imagine how the rest of us feel. Here's an idea that has probably occurred to MLB -- invite a gullible new owner to invest millions into the swooning Marlins, and give the "expansion" Expos back to Selig's pal Jeff Loria. Under his guidance, the homeless team could barnstorm around the hemisphere for a couple more years until wrung completely dry.

To the dismay of most of us, after two weeks of silence on baseball, Richard Griffin has poison-penned a new column. To our surprise, there's only one feeble shot at J.P. & Co. in the latest bird-cage liner:

...the sophomore GM, in learning the job's ABCs, still seems stuck on the A's.

Hey, a clever play on words! Too bad the premise is so flimsy. The appropriate letters for the game's sharpest front office -- yes, including Oakland -- are PhD.

Stay tuned for a day or two; I think he's working up a head of steam. The anticipated attack based on the "Cruz for Nothing" theme is merely postponed; this one mentions the "slick little scheme" of the Expos' impending move, Pete Rose's "embarrassing" qualifications for the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame, and the Yankees' "nutty" signing of Jon Lieber. (The latter was actually smart, if you have the cash lying around). Rich wants to get his loyal reader caught up on events, but when he's not inventing lies ("rumours", in this case) or distorting facts to advance his anti-Jays agenda, he's just boring.

By Jonny German

I discovered this site about a week ago and I’m liking it a lot... I want to pick up on a thought by Matthew Elmslie from Jan. 20:

... you can fake a bullpen. Any competent GM should be able to take a shoebox of cigarette butts and paper clips and put together a reasonable relief pitching corps. I've read quite a few comments on this or that board from people who are worried about the Toronto bullpen, and I just don't see it. The Jays have a big stack of plausible arms behind Escobar and Politte and that's really all you need....

I’d had the same suspicion as Matt, and I did a little research on it. First, I adopted a very simple definition of a “good” season for a reliever: 30 or more relief appearances and an ERA under 4.00. (This definition of good will serve throughout my discourse). Next, not having any convenient source of spreadsheet-ready stats, I spent a couple hours scouring ESPN.com for pitchers who met this criteria last year. I kept track of Games (in relief), Innings, Saves, Holds, ERA, Age, Seasons as a reliever (30 or more appearances), and number of “Good” seasons.