It's dark
The jungle is your head
Can't rule your heart
I'm feeling so much stronger
Than I thought

... is 4th place.

At the dawn of the 2004 season, Lou Piniella said there was no way his Rays would finish last. Will they? Tune in at 6:15 ET for the next installment of the battle for the basement.

There's too many of you crying
Brother, brother, brother
There's far too many of you dying
You know we've got to find a way
To bring some lovin' here today - Ya

Thanks to a comeback victory in New York and a Devil Ray loss in a make-up game, the Jays can climb out of 5th tonight with a win.

Here are the updated "Draft Bowl" standings:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks 47-106 .307 ___
2. Kansas City Royals 56-96 .368 9.5
3. Seattle Mariners 58-94 .382 11.5
4. Milwaukee Brewers 63-88 .417 17.0
5. Washington "Expos"  64-89 .418 17.0
6. Toronto Blue Jays 64-88 .421 17.5
7. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 64-87 .424 18.0
8. New York Mets 67-86 .438 20.0
9. Colorado Rockies 67-85 .441 20.5
10.  Pittsburgh Pirates 68-84 .447 21.5

Arizona's "Upton number" is 1 - they have clinched a tie for first pick overall.

Only time for a brief Scout report today, as the Jays pay their final visit of the year to St. Petersburg.

Old friend Mark "Lurch" Hendrickson gets the ball tonight in place of the nicked-up Scott Kazmir. Lurch went two innings on Tuesday in getting the win in relief, so he'll likely be on a short pitch count. Sunday's game will feature Gustavo Chacin's attempt to raise his 2004 record to an amazing 21-2 when combining his New Hampshire, Syracuse and Toronto efforts.

On to the Advance Scout!

Last year, I presented a theoretical model as to the talent distribution in MLB (actually, the world, too).

Can we figure out what it actually is, and can we use that to figure out the replacement level?

Here are my quick thoughts on the matter...

Clay Davenport discusses Regression Towards the Mean, as it applies to a team's true talent level. My heart was sent aflutter. There is no more important topic on analyzing baseball performance numbers than sample size and regression towards the mean.

It's a great stab by Clay, but he goes slightly wrong. Here's an "open letter" to Clay that I hope will foster additional discussions among readers.

Now is the place where the crossroads meet.
Will you look into the future?

This is the first in a series of reviews of the farm affiliates' 2004 seasons. In the series, the focus will be mainly on the teams, as Jordan will be preparing his top 30 prospect summary shortly with details on most of the guys you want to know about.

With no Jays game today, I thought I'd start a playoff catch-all thread.

If anyone is interested in participating in a Japanese Baseball (NPB) fantasy or roto league for next season, post your contact details (i.e. name and e-mail) here. If there's enough interest, we'll set up a format in November/December and draft via e-mail after Christmas.

I'll check this thread again at the end of October. I'd say that eight people ought to be enough, if we get more than 10 or so we may need to go to two divisions (there's only 12 teams in NPB, soon to be 11!).

The end of the 2004 minor-league season also signals the arrival of the Batter’s Box Post-Season Top 30 Prospects List. It was constructed with invaluable assistance from all members of the Minor-League Reports Team: Gerry McDonald, Mike Green, Ryan01, Jonny German and Craig Burley -- especially regarding the rankings, which were challenging this time around. A separate big thank you to Jonny, who assembled all the stats in HTML format. Bonus: Click here for an exclusive Batter's Box interview with Blue Jays’ Director of Player Development Dick Scott.

Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me.
Is there anyone home?

The Jays have been shut down by the veteran Cuban Orlando Hernandez this year - to the tune of 17 IP, 9 hits, 6 walks, 20 strikeouts and no runs allowed in 3 starts. El Duque is undefeated in 13 starts with 8 wins to his credit this season overall. He might be the Yankees' best starting pitcher right now.

And look how far we’ve come
So far from where we used to be
But not so far that we’ve forgotten
How it was before
-- Neil Diamond, "September Morn"

That's right, it's that time again ... with absolutely no apologies whatsoever to Neil Diamond (after all, he never apologized for that "You Don't Bring Me Flowers" duet with Barbra Streisand) , we're pleased to introduce the Batter's Box All-September team …