Bauxite rabbit has penned an article projecting the Jays performance. Let him know what you think in the comments.
With no shortage of opinion on the Jays’ direction this off-season, is it possible to develop a common view of the team and potential roster decisions? To further the conversation, I simulated the 2018 season using a model that accounts for variable player performance. Simulate next season 100 times and you get team win probabilities. I won’t oversell the results, but I think this type of tool helps evaluate where we stand and the key choices ahead. Here’s a simple explanation of what I did and what it means.
The middle 10 of our top 30 prospects is a real melting pot. You have players from last year's top 10 who are dropping on account of underwhelming performance. You have the players with average years who remained in the middle. You have a rising star who had a great season to put himself on the map, as well as a new draftee and a player who arrived through a trade.
It's time for the newest edition of the Batter's Box Blue Jays Top 30 prospects. This marks the fourteenth iteration of the top 30 here on Da Box.
As we remind readers each year, the expectation of the top 30 prospects for any team is that one third will improve, one third will regress and one third will stay as they were. The Jays front office does not like to deal prospects so almost all of last year's top 30 are still eligible for this years list. There are just two exceptions, Danny Barnes who played a lot for the Blue Jays in the big leagues and Ryan McBroom who was traded. The other 28 players go into the box's mixer with the newly drafted players, the international signings, the traded-for players and those whose performance took a step forward in 2017. The mixer goes to work, powered by the votes of our minor league team, and kicks out the definitive list of the Blue Jays top 30 prospects. Twenty of last year's top 30 are back. As mentioned, two no longer qualify so eight have dropped off. Not all of the eight who dropped had bad years, some were injured and some just had average years and dropped off due to more competition in a stronger system.
As usual the first 10 are published today, the next 10 tomorrow, and the top 10 on the day after. Let the discussion begin!