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Three losses and a rainout on Thursday. Despite the losses there were two very good starting performances by Khal Stephen and Grant Rogers but both ended in walk off losses. So given that there was little to highlight on the field I thought I would take a look at the season so far.

Durham at Buffalo - Postponed

New Hampshire 3 Portland 14

Vancouver 0 Spokane 1

Dunedin 2 Jupiter 3


Three Stars

Third Star - Yhoangel Aponte

Second Star - Grant Rogers

First Star - Khal Stephen


Boxes


NOTES


Through the early part of the season the affiliates have generally had excellent pitching, but the hitting has been lacking. In AAA Jon Clase is hitting well, Addison Barger is OK and most of the rest haven't started hitting yet. Even Barger, and Loperfido, have a 40% K rate. Orelvis has 11 K's in 15 AB's. Buffalo hitters are 20th out of 20 AAA teams in hitting and OPS. The weather has been terrible and that could be the reason. None of the starters have pitched well and so the team is 2-6.


Last night for New Hampshire CJ Van Eyk and Geison Urbaez were hit around although the fielders made four errors behind them. Michael Dominguez pitched well in relief. I don't know if he is permanently in the bullpen now. New Hampshire have used just four starters. Devereaux Harrison, Anders Tolhurst and Rafael Sanchez have pitched well but the team is hitting .169. It's not the worst in the league, it's tenth out of twelve. Half the teams are hitting under .200. Again weather or skill level?


Vancouver too have excellent pitching. Four starting pitchers have a zero ERA. One is at 2.25. One of them is Grant Rogers who threw six shutout innings on Thursday. Vancouver do have a few hitters playing well. Jay Harry, Arjun Nimmala and Brennan Orf are hitting over .300. Sean Keys and Adrian Pinto are also pitching well.


Khal Stephen was outstanding for Dunedin, six innings, nine strikeouts. He gave up one hit, a home run. Stephen had 14 whiffs. He mixed five pitches and averaged 91.7 with the fastball. Lots of people will say "send him to Vancouver" but we don't know what targets the Jays have given him. The targets are unlikely to be wins or ERA, more likely to be about pitch development or pitch command. That is why it is so hard to predict promotions. If you do want to promote Stephen, or Yesavage, who gets bumped from the Vancouver rotation. You could be brutal and bump Connor O'Halloran but who is next? You might want to wait until one of the Vancouver starters is ready for New Hampshire. I have been told by coaches in the past that pitchers can get good work in at a lower level than they are ready for because they can still work on hitting their spots and refining their pitches. Hitters on the other hand need to hit against better pitching when they are ready.


Dunedin's five starters have been outstanding. Three zero ERA's, a 0.82 and the worst one, 2.25. Two hitters, Manuel Beltre and Braden Barry are hitting over .300. Tucker Toman who was going well, had an 0-4. Sam Shaw's average is down to .231. The D Jays don't have a top 30 prospect hitter on their team. One thing I have noted is that JR Freethy is usually on the top exit velocity list even if his batting average doesn't reflect it.


So where does this leave us. The hitting at AAA and AA is woeful so far. The starting pitching is hit and miss. The picture is a little better at the A level but just a bit. The starting pitching has been outstanding.


It is just a week into the season but the hitters need to find the warm bats, not even the hot ones.


It's All About The Pitching | 16 comments | Create New Account
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bpoz - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#458665) #
Hopefully Beltre and Toman continue to perform and earn promotions.
mendocino - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#458666) #
Jays have signed 3 more IFA pitchers

https://www.milb.com/buffalo/roster/transactions/toronto-blue-jays

my list so far 33 signed
(15)
RHP Alexander Valiente R/R 6'1 185 10/20/02 CUB
RHP Edrwin Veras R/R 6'0 180 04/24/03 DR
RHP David Hernandez R/R 6'6 190 08/31/05 DR
RHP Freigher Braco R/R 6'0 190 01/13/06 VEN
RHP Jorge Gonzalez R/R 6'5 200 04/21/06 DR
RHP Marcelino Theodore R/R 6'4 190 10/12/06 DR
RHP Androu Etienne R/R 6'7 190 10/26/06 DR
RHP Erinyel Marquez R/R 5'8 160 12/14/06 VEN
RHP Rodrigo Ramirez R/R 6'6 205 01/10/07 VEN
RHP Jarlin Ugarte R/R 6'4 220 04/27/07 VEN
RHP Cristhian Duarte R/R 10/03/07 CUB
RHP Bryan Borbon R/R 6'0 207 10/31/07 MEX
RHP Gabriel Brito R/R 6'2 176 12/28/07 VEN
RHP Miguel Pantoja R/R 6'1 175 01/14/08 MEX
RHP Raduan Perez R/R 6'7 220 08/26/08 VEN
(4)
LHP Luis Fonseca L/L 05/09/02 CUB
LHP Orlando Marcelin L/L 6'2 160 07/13/07 DR
LHP Ire Martinez L/L 6'0 170 02/24/08 VEN
LHP Cesar Cerezo L/L 6'3 199 05/29/08 VEN
(5)
C Diego Arce R/R 5'9 220 MEX
C Carlos Garcia L/R 5'9 174 03/19/07 MEX
C Renyel Campos L/R 5'10 161 06/08/07 COL
C Keegan Pieternella S/R 5'8 169 09/09/07 NETH
C Yeicer Crespo R/R 5'9 220 11/28/07 VEN
(5)
IF Darwin Núñez R/R 6'0 166
SS Kennew Blanco R/R 6'3 205 06/21/06 VEN
SS Juan Sanchez R/R 6'3 200 09/27/07 DR
SS Elaineiker Coronado L/R 5'10 160 10/04/07 VEN
SS Cristopher Polanco L/R 5'11 189 01/03/08 DR
(4)
OF Luis Felipe R/R 6'3 225 11/27/06 DR
OF Nicolas Vergara L/R 6'0 172 12/04/07 PAN
OF Daniel Dominguez R/R 5'11 163 01/22/08 VEN
OF Elian Reyes L/R 6'4 185 07/30/08 DR
Glevin - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#458667) #
Read from Joe Doyle that this draft is wide open and there are about ten guys who could go #1. Probably means lack of elite talent but also maybe a good year to pick 8th.
mendocino - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#458668) #
https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/podcast-visualizing-top-10-picks-of-the-2025-mlb-draft?t=mlb-draft-coverage

April 9,2025
1. Nationals -- Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK) (No. 1)
2. Angels -- Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA) (No. 5)
3. Mariners -- Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 3)
4. Rockies -- Aiva Arquette, 2B/SS, Oregon State (No. 7)
5. Cardinals -- Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest (No. 16)
6. Pirates -- Billy Carlson, SS/RHP, Corona HS (CA) (No. 12)
7. Marlins -- JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS) (No. 86)
8. Blue Jays -- Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP/1B, Sunset HS (OR) (No. 9)
Mayo: This is banking on the fact that he’s going to get in a groove and throw the way he did over the summer and even in the fall. He’s 6-8, lefty, the tools are there to have plus fastball, plus slider, he’s got a good changeup. He’s really interesting because he’s a legit two-way guy too, ridiculous power, but if I’m taking him here, I’m putting him on the mound and just letting that ability fly. It’s been a little uneven, but I think he’s shown enough to stick around.
9. Reds -- Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona (No. 10)
10. White Sox -- Quentin Young, 3B/OF, Oaks Christian HS (CA) (No. 37)
Marc Hulet - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#458669) #
It really isn't a great year to have a Top 10 pick. It has serious 2022 draft vibes.

finch - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#458672) #
This is the year where you take a swing on a high upside HS prospect.
Kelekin - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#458681) #
A lot of the early drafts have had us picking Kruz Schoolcraft. A 6'8" giant with two-way player potential.

Xavier Neyens is interesting, but the Jays don't have a great history of drafting high school third basemen in the 1st round whose names end in "ns" (sorry Ahrens, Groshans).
knuckeler - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#458682) #
Iam tired of the BJ's heavy habit of picking pitchers in the first round that seldom pan out. This year drafting #8 overall I hope they pick up a college outfielder who can get to the major's in a year or two and contribute.
Two left handed bats that may be available Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona (No. 10)
Summerhill sports one of the sweetest left-handed strokes in this Draft and could develop into a center fielder with five solid or better tools.
Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson (No. 15)
Few players in this crop can match Cannarella's combination of bat-to-ball skills and center-field defense
knuckeler - Friday, April 11 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#458683) #
Actually I like Max Belyeu even better than Brendan Summerhill
Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Kelekin - Saturday, April 12 2025 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#458686) #
If I was going for a college OF in that range, I'd say Devin Taylor. He's going to shoot up for draft boards with the season he's having. He's offense first, but...we could use some of that.
mendocino - Saturday, April 12 2025 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#458687) #
Taylor plays for Indiana, Jays drafted Mitchell and Tibbitts both played for Indiana, should have a good idea what kind of a player he is. But new scouting director.

From BA's mock draft
8. Blue Jays — Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest
“he is a plus hitter with above-average power who’s an above-average defender and runner in center field. It is hard to find guys like this at a premium position.”

11. Athletics — Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
"Jace has never been a high-contact guy, but when he does make contact it’s loud."
"Jace is still a premium position guy and a center fielder in the big leagues.”
Glevin - Saturday, April 12 2025 @ 06:44 AM EDT (#458689) #
Jays absolutely need to stop drafting so many pitchers. It's why the system below AAA is filled with interesting arms but aside from Nimmala is there a single hitter that looks like a potential every day player? One hitter drafted in first three rounds in last two years will do that.
Waveburner - Saturday, April 12 2025 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#458699) #
Luis Fonseca the Jays most recent Cuban signee is listed at 5'2" 217 lbs on his MLB player page. I kind of hope that is true just for the hilarity.

@mendocino do you know if RHP Guilyerver Rodriguez was signed by the Jays as well? I thought I read something online indicating the Jays signed him, but I am not sure.
Nigel - Saturday, April 12 2025 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#458700) #
I agree with that Glevin. I don’t ever remember the prospect system being so thin of position player prospects.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, April 12 2025 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#458701) #
Rodriguez has not officially signed yet. If you use this link to my Jays data tracker and click on the "DSL Jays 2" tab, you'll see all the officially-signed players from the 2024-25 class:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sBLsqrXhFNMw7mZKmXFgnuyZofbzZcEumECa9Szmrns/edit?usp=sharing

The "Jays IFA" tab has players that have agreed to deals for future years.
mendocino - Saturday, April 12 2025 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#458705) #
Luis Fonseca (towers over Jays scout)
https://www.instagram.com/p/DIMtprxpoEp/?img_index=2

Jose (Josh) Gori turned out to be a 2026, I think Rodriguez is also a 2026 or later.

Had Andres Arias name floating around for a year, Cristian Polanco for a couple.

Two more for 2026
Deret Gonzalez OF
Evington Gascon RHP
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