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As many of you have read elsewhere, Vlad has signed a 14 year $500 million deal to be here for his career (covers to age 40).

That works out to $35.71 mil per year, or (if you assume little to no value for age 36+) $50 mil per year for 10 plus 4 years of watching him chase 3000 hits and 500 home runs.

The deal has no opt-outs. No deferred money either. So this is the 2nd biggest deal in MLB history, behind only Soto.

So what do the Jays get (beyond ending the never-ending saga)? A lock on 1B with the best one in the game today. He'll be here for ages 27-40 (which was at risk before). Vlad gets to stay a one team player (always good for HOF status) and doesn't ever have to worry about being traded or dealing with the headaches of free agency like his dad did. FYI: His dad for age 27-the end (age 36) had a 138 OPS+ with 35.1 bWAR, 279 HR, and 1711 hits. If Vlad matches that he'd be in the mid-50's for WAR lifetime, with 439 HR and 2626 hits plus whatever he does this year with 4 more years on his contract to try to get those last few hits and HR to get to the magic HOF numbers. Can he do it? Yes. Will he? No idea.

For now lets enjoy this. We all remember his first big moment - the biggest spring home run ever, his longest home run in an all-star game HR contest, Vlad winning the All-Star HR contest. Lets hope we get some regular season highlights soon, and some post-season ones too.

Posted by John Northey on Monday, April 07 2025 @ 08:14 AM EDT.

Vlad a Lifetime Jay | 28 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Gerry - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#458339) #

I don't like this from a pure baseball perspective, I don't think Vlad will deliver that much value.

I see the benefit from a marketing and fan perspective. The fans love Vlad and he is a home grown talent. So keeping him is good PR for the team and good for ticket sales.

Glevin - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#458340) #

Glad it's done partly because it means no rebuild now. Jays will try to win every year and even though it might not be the best direction for the franchise, it is is more fun as a fan trying to compete.

scottt - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#458341) #

Now he just needs to earn that money.
And the fans need to buy more tickets.

Will it affect Bichette? I don't see Bo coming back.
On paper, it's not too hard to replace him with a better defender and compensate with an offensive third baseman.

No more stupid Guerrero trade rumours.
That's a huge plus.
Also, a team cannot afford too many contracts like this, so maybe the Jays won't be in on every free agents.

Btw, Biggio is still in the site banner.
How about replacing him with Gimenez or Santander?

Eephus - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#458343) #

I agree with Gerry on all those points. Is it an overpay from a purely baseball value perspective? Goodness yes. However when you factor in the optics of getting this done, the positive reaction John and Jane Average Fan will have to locking up an incredibly popular (and thus marketable) player... I think that's clearly the financial rationale here. The additional revenue having him around as the now permanent face of the team pays for itself.

Personally... he's an imperfect and occasionally frustrating player sure, but an incredibly likeable one who is very fun to watch... so I'm glad they got this done. He might be at Frank Thomas levels running the bases halfway through the deal... but if he can hit like the Big Hurt I don't think we'll mind. The money doesn't worry me all that much because this team has clearly shown a recent willingness to try outspending their problems and a mega-contract like this doesn't seem likely to hinder that.

Besides, it would've just looked real darn weird seeing him in another uniform.

scottt - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#458345) #

Despite getting swept, I see the Jays jumping on some power ranking boards because they were assuming the Jays were going to go into a fire sale at the trade deadline.

christaylor - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#458347) #

I suspect some silent censorious shenanigans going on. Are posts about baseball writing and writers not baseball discussion? It does seems against the original intention of this site. I quote from the About section:

Pop quiz: Batter's Box is:

a. an interactive online magazine of baseball commentary and analysis
b. source of daily original insight into Blue Jay major- and minor-league clubs
c. peña or marketplace of intelligent and literate discussion about baseball

The answer, of course, is: all of the above!*

adrianveidt - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#458348) #

I don't think the "lifetime" narrative is going to happen. If he's still playing by age 32, I don't think it's with the Jays.

I remember during the Gord Ash era there was a rule against contracts longer than 3 years.

scottt - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#458350) #

I don't think he can be moved with that contract.
That contract becomes worse every year.

vw_fan17 - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#458351) #

Some fans will be mollified. Others will be (rightfully, IMHO) upset about the waste of $$. Some people still complain that Mitch Marner signed his last extension for ~$1M too much per year, 6 years later.

Maybe we should have a "lifetime WAR value" poll or something? I'll take the under on $350M of lifetime value. May replace Vernon Wells as "worst long-term contract ever given to a Blue Jay" at some point. Maybe it's the futility of the top-3 batters so far making me extra ornery, including Vlad with a 91 OPS+..

SK in NJ - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#458352) #

Vlad apparently has a full no trade clause, and no team is going to trade for that contract regardless, so this is pretty much a 'lifetime' contract.

I don't like it from a baseball standpoint. The AAV is fine, but 14 years is way too long, and they are more than likely going to be getting a bunch of bad seasons towards the back end while still giving him 500 PA a year due to his name. If he had Juan Soto's offensive track record, then I could live with it, but 2 great offensive seasons in 6 years, combined with no value aside from his bat? That's a tough sell.

Either way, this is clearly on the FO. Not the contract, I think Rogers' fingerprints are all over that, but feeling like they needed to overpay Vlad in the first place is on the FO for not building a better long-term roster. I guess rebuilding is out of the question anytime soon, which is fine, but they better be developing some talent in the next few years to surround Vlad with. Obviously, win a World Series in 1 of the next 14 years. That should be the goal.

Nigel - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#458353) #

This isn’t what I would have done but, full credit to the FO, this does bring some coherence to the moves of the offseason. For better or for worse, at least the speculation and direction of the team is resolved (to a reasonable degree).

I wonder if this would have gotten done if Vladdy’s first 10 games this year looked like 2024 and not 2023?

scottt - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#458354) #

This year's draft pick will be very important, but they will always have the option of making trades like the one that brought Chapman here or signing guys like Santander and Bassitt.

Gerry - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#458355) #

christaylor: I am not sure what your point is about censorious shananigans.

I am not aware of anything being censored.

dalimon5 - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#458356) #

Awful contract. Doesn't mean I wouldn't have done it. Here is what I need to feel better about this decision as a fan:

Vlad to be elite more often than pumpkin. That means a steady bat, clutch hitting and generally great results against good pitching. I want to see 40 HR power most of the next 8 years. I hope to see him reach his potential without the weight of a payday and contract on his mind.

Bo Bichette to resign with the team as he said he wants to play with Vlad for the rest of his career. Resigning Vlad to an overpay makes more sense if it means Bo and other players in MLB want to stay here.

Essentially, I hope this contract elevates he team overall by attracting better free agents and players to stay here. That will be a win unlike the "marketing" play that is often cited as reason enough to overpay Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Lots of money coming off the books next year. Will be very interesting to see if they trade for more players like Gimenez, sign big free agents, wait on farm or both.

dalimon5 - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#458357) #

Nigel I agree that coherency is closer now with Vlad signed and off season targets like Soto and Ohtani out of the picture. Now they must build around Vlad without the possibility of "yeah but we can pass on Vlad and get Soto or Ohtani." I hope the past off seasons were bumpy and slow because they never had a core player locked up long term and were always working backwards from possible Ohtani and Soto signings, pivoting as necessary.

adrianveidt - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#458358) #

I disagree that this is an "untradeable contract". Those are the players that become available. A productive young player on a cheap contract is the one that's never traded, because, while there's demand, there's not going to be any supply. The teams Vlad would exclude would not have the capital to pay him. I'm sure he'd agree to play for the Mets or Dodgers.

It's the bad contracts, no matter the size, that end up getting traded more frequently in all sports.

christaylor - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#458359) #

Maybe I am looking in the wrong thread or imagined it but seems the posts discussing Ken Rosenthal have disappeared.

Cracka - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#458360) #

I grew up an Expos fan. I think we're very lucky to have an owner who is willing to clearly overpay for a superstar player and can confidently take on a 14-year commitment. That being said, I'm sure that some very intelligent people at Rogers have analyzed and modeled out the future franchise & related Rogers media value with and without Vlady. This is as much of a business decision as it is a baseball decision... and I think the franchise was headed for some bleak years if they had let both Vlady and Bo walk away.

John Northey - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#458361) #

Hmm... good question on 'big contracts here'.

Vernon Wells - worst case? - $126 mil signed Aug 8th, 2007. His 2006 was his best season (6.2 WAR, 129 OPS+ gold glove in CF) but his 3 previous were 3.2 4.5 4.5 bWAR with 2 more gold gloves so it didn't seem to be a nightmare deal. He was in his age 28 season and having a poor one (1.4 bWAR 85 OPS+). His age 29 season was better (2.0 123 OPS+) but age 30 was ugly 86 OPS+ 0.9 WAR, then he had a rebound dead cat year 4.0 WAR 125 OPS+ and AA did his best trade - dumping Wells on the Angels without paying a penny of his remaining contract. His next 3 seasons he hit 81 OPS+ -0.2 WAR for the Angels & Yankees for $89.1875 million. Ouch. Jays paid him $42,201,000 total for 28.7 WAR.
Carlos Delgado - $68 mil for 4 years which was a record for per year at the time (lasted a month or so before being shattered by A-Rod) October 20, 2000 before his age 29 season. He hit well, 2nd in MVP voting in '03, 18.2 bWAR, OPS+ of 146-147-161-129 over those 4 years. He clearly lived up to expectations, but the Jays were broke then (badly run to put it mildly). so he was allowed to leave as a free agent to Miami and played 5 seasons, had a 161 OPS+ his first year away, 143 his final ML season in just 26 games (hurt, ended up being career ending) $60 mil for that, but his poor defense led to just 7.6 WAR (2.8 with that 161 OPS+, not easy, but his D was ugly and the NL didn't have a DH then). So it worked out well for the Jays, but a Vlad type deal for ages 27-40 would've been for 36.6 bWAR 368 HR, 1572 hits.
George Springer has the biggest contract pre-Vlad at $150 mil for 6 years. 10.2 bWAR 114 OPS+ though is much worse than hoped for with this year and next to go. Injuries and flopping when moved to RF cost him. Plus the deal was signed for ages 31-36.

I'm sure there are other big deals (Dave Stieb, but that was pitching and a bit odd - 10 year deal at first, then the Jays voluntarily ripped it up and gave him a better deal just before his arm went kablam). But those are the ones that came to mind right away.

christaylor - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#458362) #

Apologies, my bad! They are in the other thread. Mea culpa.

uglyone - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#458363) #

this was so damn necessary thank god it happened.

and no, this doesn't give Rogers any excuse to insinuate anything about any payroll issues for any of the next 14 yrs. they can afford the sunk cost.

greenfrog - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#458365) #

The contract shows that “going year-to-year” with players in their years before free agency — an approach that Shapiro and Atkins have often touted with the Blue Jays — occasionally has downsides. Sometimes you just keep losing leverage and eventually have to capitulate and hand out a massive contract to a popular star player.

dalimon5 - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#458366) #

I don't get the addiction to having to bring this contract back to a point of criticism of the front office as some type of lesson of how to avoid paying market value for a superstar when you maybe, some how could have gotten lucky and gotten a prime superstar for 30% less or more. "Sometimes you just keep losing leverage and eventually have to capitulate and hand out a massive contract to a popular star player." Sure. Sometimes the opposite happens as well so pointing out the fact that it could have been different is rather pointless unless you're simply trying to show how things could have turned out better. If Vlad becomes a top 3 player in MLB and his market value by end of year would have gotten him 650,000,000 are you going to come onto this board and tell everyone how this FO had the deal work out in their favour by going year to year? No, I don't think you will but if you did, what is the purpose of pointing out these realities all the time?

I'm going to anchor my opinion in line with Ugly more or less which I think is reasonable and practical. Sunk cost. Probably absolutely necessary for this team. Everyone wins. Nothing else to debate or complain about.

Hodgie - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#458367) #

It's a lot of money, but then Rogers has a lot of money so I don't care all that much. They don't make this deal if they are worried about payroll austerity in the future. Unless someone forgets to tell the Orange Emperor that he isn't wearing any clothes, there is a good chance the CBT threshold is pushing $350M in 10 years time. As others have noted, it would behoove the Jays to develop players better than recently to maximize the next 10-12 years.

Spifficus - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#458368) #

Ok, that was the crowning achievement for an offseason-and-a-bit that solidified their status now and going forward. Yes, it's an overpay, but as others are saying, that was a product of not getting a deal in place earlier. Now, without knowing/remembering details, I'm not going to say if those passes were right or wrong, but I would like to see them pushing the envelope earlier.

Now, if they could just get Bo locked in as well, I'd be a super-happy camper.

John Northey - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#458369) #

IMO this is a case of there was little chance of signing Vlad (or Bo) early. Neither had any interest in getting less than their maximum value, nor did they feel pressure for it due to their dad's making millions in the game before them (IE: generational wealth was already there). Kirk didn't have that leverage thus was able to be signed at a good price. Next on the list are Bo & Varsho - but I don't see Bo being signed anytime soon, he has to reestablish himself as a 120 OPS+ guy (currently in the low 100's) to be worth the money I suspect he wants. If he'll sign cheap, sure why not? But I'd bet against that strongly. I could easily see him signing a 1-2 year deal this winter to rebuild value if he doesn't have a 3-4 WAR year.
Plus, unlike Vlad, the Jays have prospects coming up behind Bo who could be ready for 2026 in Jimenez and Kasevich with superstar potential in Nimmala (a few years away).

electric carrot - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#458370) #

I like this move. And also, as mentioned in an earlier thread, I saw it happening in advance via my CS time machine.

greenfrog - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#458371) #

One benefit of the contract is that we won’t have to see Vladdy play for the Yankees (a plausible alternative destination for him) for the next decade.

Vlad a Lifetime Jay | 28 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.