We do seem to be in better spirits than around this time last year, don't we...
...amazing what having actual young players of interest and Max Scherzer can do!
With another season of Blue Jays baseball starting up tomorrow, these are the final moments for sheer blind optimism that yes, indeed... this will finally be the year our Toronto Blue Jays go 162-0. It's still technically possible and nobody can yet say otherwise!
Anyhow, I thought I'd look at and break down five particular things I think need to happen for this Jays team, as currently constructed, to make a serious bid for a postseason appearance. For the record I don't think all five need to happen (though I think we'd gladly take it), rather I think three of the five would give them a strong chance... maybe just two if the rest of the AL East cannibalizes each other. Lets get into it.
#1. The Veteran Hitter Bounce Back
We're talking four hitters in particular here, and I think you can guess which ones. If nearly half your everyday lineup features a run of OPS(es) like .677, .674, .638 and .598.... It doesn't really matter how many runs you're preventing because it's going to be incredibly difficult to string any kind of long sequence scoring together.
I'm fairly optimistic about two of those four, pretty nervous about another (who is by far the oldest) and have no idea what to expect from the fourth dude who is new to the organization. I'd say you can consider Alejandro Kirk's 2024 hitting work a write-off: he got a very late start to camp because of his wife's pregnancy and Kirk was significantly better in the second half of the season, his isolated slugging nearly double of that before the all-star break. As for Bo Bichette, he's a very streaky hitter we all know that, and there will be a few weeks he looks like 2024 Bo and we worry again... but it also seems completely crazy to conclude that he simply completely fell off an Olympus Mons-like cliff last year and is toast forever. Plus it's a contract year and he chopped off his glorious hair... this is serious, folks.
George Springer is (shocker) the one I'm pretty nervous about, and I clearly am not alone there (though not to the point of wanting him released after a rough spring... way way way too early for anything like that). I think that relying on Springer to be a crucial part of the offense is a big mistake, but I also am cautiously optimistic he can be useful and productive if deployed the right way. You give him a few weeks playing almost everyday to see what he has left and adjust from there... maybe he has one more year of being a slightly above average regular, or maybe he's cooked... but you have to find out.
Andres Gimenez... no clue what to expect. I'm bracing myself for any offensive punch he provides as a complete bonus, personally. Fingers crossed batting him 4th or 5th in Spring Training was just a way to get him more at-bats and not the actual plan. If he's the 2022 version of himself, than sure! That's an MVP candidate. Probably asking a little too much from him, me thinks. I'd be happy if he's league average considering everything else he does so exceptionally well.
Much like expecting all five of my ideas to go right, expecting all four of these players to rediscover their peak offensive thunder is a tall ask. However, I think you need at least half of them to approach it, with my imaginary money being on Kirk and Bichette doing so. Springer and Gimenez in the meantime climbing back to league average rather than bad-to-blech would also be pretty useful. Also, if Kirk gets injured for a month or two this becomes even more paramount, since I think we'd be delighted if then everyday catcher Tyler Heineman hit anywhere close to the level of these guys' subpar 2024.
#2. The Kids Are All Right
Alan Roden makes the team! I like it, and while it's unfortunate Addison Barger did not despite being equally deserving... with the way this roster is constructed finding regular at bats for Barger too (limited to 3B/RF/DH) would've been tricky. He'll get his chance at some point, me thinks.
This basket of (mostly) older AAA position player prospects on the cusp of the big leagues is a good logjam to have, even if most of them have ceilings that top out as solid regulars or high quality bench players. Lets say three of them make considerable contributions to the 2025 team (I'm including Will Wagner in this group): now you've got a much deeper lineup 1-9 with a few guys (Roden, Wagner, say Leo Jimenez if they need another infielder) giving good quality plate appearances and getting on-base for your dangerous middle of the order guys. Or if it all goes right for Barger, another legit power hitting threat.
I'm much higher on the guys I've already mentioned than the other AAA options, intriguing though they are. Orelvis Martinez's home run bat will force his arrival at some point, but you need to see if he can play any defensive position adequately first (23 is darn young to be a DH). I like Joey Loperfido's tools, don't love that swing (you could drive a truck through that hole). Steward Berroa would make a fantastic and fun end of the bench speedy fifth outfielder/pinch runner, if only MLB teams still had longer benches (alas). Much like Loperfido, Jonathon Clase is very intriguing and since youth is on his side you can be very patient there.
Honestly, it's a far better situation than last year when none of these guys were either ready or even in the Blue Jays system. I think this kind of depth is going to be very important for the 2025 squad and if at least two of them can firmly establish themselves as credible big league regulars, that would be such a huge development for an organization that has been desperate for young reinforcements basically this entire half decade.
#3. Vlad and Tony Combine For 85 Taters
Purely an arbitrary number I thought it would be fun to play around with (and they combined for 'just' 74 last season). If Daulton Varsho were healthy you could add him and make the number a more reasonable 105 if you wanted.
You'd essentially be asking both sluggers to repeat their career high in home runs (and both have only crossed the 40 threshold once) but within the absence of points #1 and #2 happening the Blue Jays would absolutely need this, or something close, to happen. I'm not nearly as sold on this team's ability to score as the projection models are (they seem to use career averages in their calculations, which in the case of Springer and Gimenez especially is not particularly useful for where either player is currently at).
There's a very possible outcome where Guerrero Jr. and Santander are your only considerably above-average everyday hitters, and so you'd need them to carry the bulk of the offense much like Judge and Soto did for an otherwise fairly pedestrian 2024 Yankees lineup (and yes I know Vlad and Tony are definitely no Judge or Soto). Plus, home runs are fun and the Blue Jays should hit more of them... so why not?
Also a quick note after watching quite a few Santander at-bats this spring: he definitely likes to swing, that's for sure... but his ability to just spoil pitches and foul off almost everything on two strikes is genuinely impressive and a useful skill he clearly possesses that I'd underestimated. It's also fun to watch. Justin Turner was/is good at this as well, but Turner even in his prime has never been the threat to park a mistake pitch into the seats the way Santander is. Also considering how platoon-proof he is, I'm starting to come around on his perhaps excellent fit within this Blue Jays lineup. Still think they're one big middle of the order bat short, though.
#4. The Old Man Yells At Cloud Rotation Defies Aging One More Time
The Max Scherzer addition made me actually excited for this upcoming season. As spring showed, Mad Max is just dynamite to watch... but we all know he didn't exactly make a veteran pitching staff any younger. This is a staff with three guys (Berrios, Bassitt and Gausman) who can gobble up innings no doubt... it's the quality of that gobbling that is going to be important. You've got to hope Chris Bassitt can do a better job limiting baserunners (free passes were a 2024 problem), that Kevin Gausman can find some of that peak velocity and gather up some strikeouts again, and that Jose Berrios has another one of those seasons where a bunch of well hit balls find gloves more often than not (he is very home run prone of course). And you really need all three of these things to happen.
There is a reasonable pathway for this to happen again. Bassitt isn't your typical 36 year old pitcher, having always gotten by on guile and moxy rather than sheer physical force. Last spring training was Gausman, Interrupted... so maybe a more normal routine of ramping up helps that fastball pop a little more consistently this time around, allowing the devastating splitter to do its thing (maybe he mixes in the slider a bit more too). As for Berrios... he is still firmly in his prime (turning 31 in May) and I think you're extremely pleased if he gives you another typical quality 'middle of a good rotation' Berrios season.
Scherzer's thumb will probably be a thing we'll be biting our nails about (pardon the imagery) all season, and whether Bowden Francis is real or not are likewise very important factors that this season depends upon. Because after those five? Yariel Rodriguez had his moments as a starter last season but his frequent nibbling of the plate (geez what's with all these mouth analogies) just won't work in any extended run as a starting pitcher. Alek Manoah is a July dream you're crossing your fingers on, Jake Bloss looked good at the end of spring but seriously needs AAA time (having barely any) and beyond that it's Eric Lauer time. I actually like Lauer as a depth signing, remembering his crafty lefty work from his Brewer days facing the Reds, and think he could play some kind of role at some point. Ideally that role isn't starting a dozen games in May/June.
It's a concern! Could be a strength of the team like it was in 2023, or (considering the serious lack of depth) the complete undoing of this upcoming season. At least we'll know soon! (he says chewing on his finger tips... damnit, sorry).
#5. Bullpen In A China Shop
If you were a member of the 2024 Toronto bullpen and something could go wrong... it almost certainly did. Whether it be your hometown closer's elbow growling at him, your set-up guy's young child getting hit by a car (terrifying), your longtime reliable left-hander turning completely into soup, your electric-armed once top pitching prospect finally staying healthy but floundering and hittable even in a medium one inning role, your changeup magician finally having his trick revealed and having to flee the scene... not to mention an endless cast of waiver wire pickups many of whom surrendered more runs than they recorded outs. Also, far too much Zach Pop than is recommended for any healthy diet.
Surely one of the worst bullpens I've been unfortunate enough to witness in my time following the team. I want to say 2002 had an equally bad cast of neerdowells but that team didn't come into the season thinking they had a chance... then there's the first half of 2021 which was similarly frustrating with the constant blown leads, but please let us not relive the dark days of Tyler Chatwood, Bad Hand (purposeful typo) or Rafael Dolis.
The 2025 team needed to improve their relief core. Did they? Well, it's hard to imagine they could be any worse...
Okay okay. Jeff Hoffman should be a boost and stabilizer, both giving the Jays a potentially dominant 9th inning option with truly electric stuff (and multiple weapons beyond fastball/slider) and allowing some combination of Chad Green, Yimi Garcia and (once healthy) Erik Swanson to handle the 7th and 8th. Nick Sandlin is unique and funky: can he perhaps give you something akin to what Adam Cimber for a couple years was able to? I'd also be curious to see what Yariel Rodriguez looks like in leverage situations: simplify the arsenal and let it rip for an inning at a time. It's what he did his last season in Japan to great effect.
As Magpie mentioned in the prediction thread, this bullpen improving from the very bottom of the musky rancid barrel into just middle of the pack would be an enormous swing factor for the 2025 squad... that alone possibly adding several wins. It's a very top-heavy pen, which is concerning: pitchers by their nature get hurt and the likes of Jacob Barnes taking the mound late in a tight game... not comforting. They'll need good health to reach even that league average acceptable level, and also for everything that could possibly go wrong to not happen again, obviously. One imagines if they're in the race come trade deadline time, this will be an area they almost certainly look to add to.
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There you have it. Five crucial factors for your 2025 Toronto Blue Jays. Personally, I like the wager on the young guys with the modest bullpen improvement (#2 and #5), while one of the veteran hitters rebounds with a near all-star season. Call it two and a half of these five factors coming true if you want.
As for an actual prediction... my gut is saying 86-76, enough to have them smelling a wild card chase in September but depending on about eight other teams, 50/50 or less they actually make it in. Winning the division isn't out of the question either I suppose, with the considerable woes the other AL East teams are feeling... but now you're talking a season where very little goes wrong for the Jays. Hey, maybe we're due for one of those.
Beyond that wishful thinking, I'll say the starting rotation becomes an issue for a good chunk of the season and the lineup (despite the young guys contributing) isn't quite deep enough to go on a serious run and truly separate the team from the many other creamy WC contenders. However, because it's spring and I'm feeling cheery, this will all still be a lot more fun than the past couple years even with all the looming free agency clouds.
Lets play ball already.
Not sure why they think Straw is any better against lefties than righties, but at least it seems like they will limit him to lefties only.
TBH it's probably best to put Springer in CF to start.