87 wins 75 losses. WC position.

Sorry, I projected a last place finish for the Jays last year and I'll do it again this year:

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Tampa Bay
4. Baltimore
5. Toronto

Boston has impact players, good pitching and hitting depth, and three star level prospects in AAA/MLB.

New York doesn't have the depth it used to, and is battling injuries/age, but everything seems to go right for the club even when things look bleak.

I had TB at No. 2 before McClanahan's injury. They have good pitching (and excellent pitching depth), as well as some impressive young hitters.

I can't believe Baltimore actually allowed their pitching depth to get worse rather than better.

The bullpen is going to be a disaster and there's not enough SP depth to cover the aging rotation. Springer is toast - blocking potentially better hitters in Roden and Barger. He's released or traded for another bad contract in the offseason.

Schneider and Atkins are gone before the trade deadline.

Bo will have a big first half and make it clear he's not returning. Vladdy will press and struggle early before gaining his footing in August.

The club will look ok in the first week of the season and then stumble badly, failing to take advantage of other AL East team's injuries. Gausman suffers a serious injury.

Barger finishes in the Top 3 in HRs for the club after he comes up in May.

Those are some bold predictions Marc. Very interesting. They’ve added Santander and Wagner and switched to Popkins while the Orioles and NYY lost their aces and NYY their 2nd best hitter.

I agree Boston is very good when you look at their stars in the making and depth, but they have a ton of holes on their main roster. Story as SS, Casas at 1B who has been a shell of his breakout self. Duran has nowhere to go but down. Hendricks looks awful. Chapman walks too many. There’s lots of flaws with that team for me to pencil them in as a first place team. Speaking of decline, Walker Buehler is down 1 MPH in fastball speed. Two others in the rotation are injured. Their most impressive pitcher besides Crochet is Whitlock who is a swing man and can’stay healthy.

TB definitely I see as a major competitor it’s their ridiculous pitching, but is it really hard to envision McLanahan and Rasmussen getting injured? Why do you factor age against the Jays starters but ignore the injury history of the Rays pitchers? Who are the Rays impressive young hitters you’re referring to? Caminero? The rest of their young hitters won’t be in the show until June at the earliest.

I don’t see this team finishing any lower than 3rd after factoring additions and subtractions other teams have had to deal with. The amount of wins they gain by not playing against Cole, Soto, Rodriguez, Barnes and Henderson is probably equivalent or higher than if they added someone like Soto to the team.

*Burnes

** Apple AI dumbing down the discourse

I think the jays underachieved last year and should/would be better this year even if they didn't make upgrades.

But I also think they did make some nice upgrades, particularly offensively and in the bullpen, and likely have better AAA depth this year as well.

This year i'd wager they perform closer to expectations.

Fangraphs' Depth Chart projections have the jays as the 8th best team in baseball, 2 to 2.5 wins back of the Yanks and Orioles at the top of the division and 2 to 4 wins ahead of the Sox and Rays at the bottom. I think that might be a bit too rosy, but not too far off. Mid to high 80s in wins seems about right.

Of course things change drastically if there is a talent sell-off.

Having been optimistic for the last few years I am now pessimistic. I wonder if that's just a reaction to last season disappointment.

Nevertheless I am concerned abut the starting pitching. The pitchers are older. They have been extremely healthy over the last few years and given how pitching is tough on the body can we rely on another year of health?

As everyone notes the bullpen is not a strength.

Will Bo hit? Will Springer hit? Will Gimenez hit? Will Santander hit like last season now that he has signed a big contract? Can Kirk handle catching 5-6 days per week?

Bottom line I will say 81-81 for the season.

I'll say 79-83.

A lot has to go right for their record to be better than this. The starters have to stay healthy and Bowden Francis needs to replicate last year. The bullpen was 3rd worst in team history last year and hasn't improved that much.

Bichette has to regain batting form, and Springer, Varsho and Gimenez need to be better than in 2024. Catching depth is thin if Kirk ever gets injured.

I see the division finishing :
1. Boston
2. Baltimore
3. New York
4. Tampa
5. Toronto

Changes from last year's opening roster:



* Turner --- Santander
* Falefa --- Gimenez
* Biggio --- Wagner
* Vogelbach - Roden
* Kiermaier - Lukes
* Jansen --- Heineman

The guys waiting on the farm were Horwitz, Jimenez, Barger, Lukes, Serven.


* Kikuchi --- Scherzer

* Pearson --- Hoffman
* Mayza ---- Little
* Richards - Rodriguez
* White -- Sandlin
* Cabrera -- Lovelady
* Parsons -- Barnes

Swanson was injured to start the year and Pop and Burr were in the minors.

The Yankees have signed Yarbrough.

Maybe a mistake for the Blue Jays to let him go?

I think the Jays win some number in the 80s. If the starters hit to their potential, defense remains excellent, the starters hold it together, and the bullpen doesn't stink, 89, and probably playoff bound. I think it could happen. But more likely low to mid 80s because one or more of these things not going right.

Also not sure people are remembering how disastrous last year's pen was. This is listed in order of the offseason bullpen plan:


* Romano: 13.2ip, 6.59era, 6.17fip, -0.3awar, -1.4awar/65
* Mayza: 24.2ip, 8.03era, 4.91fip, -0.7awar, -1.8awar/65
* Swanson: 39.1ip, 5.03era, 6.06fip, -0.5awar, -0.7awar/65
* Garcia: 30.0ip, 2.70era, 2.67fip, 0.8awar, 1.7awar/65
* Green: 53.1ip, 3.21era, 4.29fip, 0.5awar, 0.6awar/65
* Richards: 48.0ip, 5.06era, 4.73fip, -0.3awar, -0.4awar/65
* Cabrera: 62.2ip, 3.59era, 5.13fip, -0.2awar, -0.2awar/65
* Pearson: 40.0ip, 5.63era, 4.64fip, -0.4awar, -0.6awar/65

Extras:

* White: 10.0ip, 5.40era, 4.47fip, -0.1awar, -0.3awar/65
* Pop: 48.1ip, 5.59era, 5.53fip, -1.0awar, -1.3awar/65
* Little: 45.2ip, 3.74era, 4.90fip, -0.1awar, -0.1awar/65
* Burr: 27.1ip, 4.28era, 3.50fip, 0.1awar, 0.2awar/65
* Nance: 22.0ip, 4.09era, 3.98fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65


It was basically a complete implosion, other than Yimi (who we traded halfway) and Green who was good but not great.

I will "go out on a limb" and pick Toronto to not finish last place in the division.

TB is legit stacked with pitching and the minors park will help their young hitters. By end of season they will be a force to reckon with after promotions so long as McClanahan can return from injury and Rasmussen avoids the IL.

Toronto has a very strong front three in Vlad, Bo and Santander and they now have good offensive options to get on base in Kirk and Roden. It's not hard for me to see improvement from Vlad in the power department now that he will have a clean up hitter for the first time in 3 years. Easy to see improvement from Varsho based on spring power numbers and the fact he was dealing with injury. Bo I don't need to imagine to envision a strong campaign, he's done it every year except one. As for the bullpen it is much improved with Hoffman replacing Romano who was injured last year (and inconsistent), Swanson returning from injury and Sandlin added.

Toronto starting pitchers to me are a strength. The criticism that they remain healthy and are therefore about to get injured is unfounded to me. The reason they are "lucky" not to blow their arms out is because they don't blow people away with stuff. Bassitt "pitches" without velocity that ails most 96 MPH pitchers from other teams. Gausman is a two-pitch pitcher with an elite splitter. Berrios is a machine. Francis is young and has thrown limited innings. That's 4/5th of a rotation with Rodriguez and Scherzer in the wings. I'd much rather be there than with the all-or-nothing approach of the Orioles, Red Sox and Rays rotations where you have 96 MPH FBs mixed with devastating change ups and sliders from guys like Houck, Walker, Crochet, Rodriguez, Cole, McClanahan, Rasmussen and Baz.

The three most important factors for Toronto to finish at the top of the division this year are:

1) Managing John Schneider to maximize the line up (example - cutting Springer when necessary, putting Santander in the OF to increase offense, etc)

2) Acquiring a grade A arm for the bullpen if injuries create holes in the 6/7 inning spots. Hoffman-Garcia-Green need to be kept to the 7-8-9 roles and even then the FO needs to find a strong LHP to trade for sooner rather than later rather than to rely on Little.

3) Trading from the farm to acquire talent to "equalize" them with the Red Sox and Rays who will be much stronger as they promote their top prospects later in the season.


Here is my official prediction:

1. Tampa
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. New York
5. Baltimore

Bonus predictions:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr re-signs before the season begins.

Bo Bichette signs before the all-star break

Daulton Varsho is resigned before the all-star break

Trey Yeasavage is pitching out of the bullpen down the stretch posting strong numbers while being the "weak arm" in the bullpen which is completely remade by Atkins with the aforementioned additions.

"Maybe a mistake for the Blue Jays to let him [Yarbrough] go?"

A mistake or a sign of the relative quality of Jays to Yankees pitching that a guy judged not good enough to crack our team is good enough to make the Yankees.

You would hope though that if they wanted him we could have arranged a trade for something.

Yanks bullpen vs Jays bullpn

asterisk = currently listed as injured


* D.Williams 63.0ip, 2.95era, 1.4war ------ Hoffman 65.0ip, 2.97era, 1.4war
* F.Cruz 61.0ip, 3.25era, 0.8war ---------- Garcia 61.0ip, 3.60era, 0.5war
* I.Hamilton* 60.0ip, 3.46era, 0.7war ----- Lovelady 59.0ip, 3.75era, 0.2war
* L.Weaver 68.0ip, 3.91era, 0.6war -------- Green 63.0ip, 3.94era, 0.2war

* M.Leiter* 58.0ip, 3.91era, 0.3war ------- Little 56.0ip, 3.86era, 0.1war
* J.Loaisiga* 40.0ip, 3.44era, 0.1war ----- Burr* 44.0ip, 3.55era, 0.1war
* J.Cousins* 46.0ip, 3.92era, 0.1war ------ Rodriguez 55.0ip, 3.97era, 0.1war
* T.Hill 57.0ip, 4.24era, 0.0war ---------- Sandlin 60.0ip, 3.98era, 0.0war

* T.Matzek* 38.0ip, 4.16era, 0.0war ------- Swanson* 46.0ip, 3.99era, 0.0war
* Y.Santos 34.0ip, 4.24era, 0.0war -------- Robertson 39.0ip, 4.04era, 0.0war
* R.Yarbrough 44.0ip, 4.34era, 0.0war ----- Nance 42.0ip, 4.16era, 0.0war
* Y.Gomez 54.0ip, 4.49era, 0.0war --------- Barnes 50.0ip, 4.60era, -0.1war



Obviously the yanks have a big edge at the top of the bullpen but depth wise there's not much difference.

Just looks like the Yanks have run into a whole whack of bullpen injuries at the moment.

One of the few years where I wouldn't be surprised at any of the 5 teams finishing first or last in the AL East. I don't think that there is a huge difference in talent among the teams. While I'd be surprised if the Jays finished first it definitely isn't impossible. A few pitching injuries and the Jays are a last place team. I'd guess 84-78 (the pitching just isn't good enough) and:

Boston
Baltimore
Toronto
TB
NYY

I like the 2025 team more than any of the 2020-2024 team.
The 2021 team started Kay and Zeuch. It had Thornton, Dolis and Chatwood in the pen.

Boston looks very interesting.

Tampa will play in a minor park all year. Many games will be rained out forcing doubleheaders.
It's will be very hot in the sun in July/August.
They are loaded with injury prone pitchers and young hitters learning on the fly.

I'll go with
1. Toronto
2. Boston
3. Yankees
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay

Last year fastball velo (Sports Info FBv):

* Hoffman 96.7
* Garcia 96.3
* Green 95.5
* Barnes 95.4
* Little 94.5
* Nance 94.5
* Robertson 94.4
* Burr 94.1
* Swanson 93.9
* Rodriguez 93.8
* Sandlin 92.6
* Lovelady 92.3


* Yarbrough 86.3


maybe the reasoning is just that simple? possible.



yankees for comparison:

* Loaisiga 97.9
* Hamilton 96.1
* Weaver 95.7
* Cousins 95.1
* Williams 94.8
* Cruz 94.7
* Matzek 93.6
* Brubaker 93.1
* Gomez 92.5
* Leiter 91.5
* Hill 89.3
* Yarbrough 86.3

I'll live on the optimistic side this time around and go with a high-80's win total and a Wild Card berth. Last season reminded me of an average JP Ricciardi type of team (boring, .500ish), and they obviously underperformed even that. I think the front office did a lot to improve the club for 2025, and the position player depth in particular looks very strong. Where the volatility comes in is the rotation (health) and bullpen (effectiveness beyond the top 3). Things can definitely go south in a hurry with an injury or two to the starters.

I think we finish 3rd or 4th in the division and get a wild card spot.

I think a couple of big injuries and we're toast.

I predict the farm will look better than expected.

I predict Roden to be AL Rookie of the Year (homerism baby).

"I think a couple of big injuries and we're toast."

Applies to every team except the Dodgers. Maybe even the Dodgers if it's Ohtani.

The Jays don't have a lot of pitching depth, but with Cole and Gil out, the Yankees are much shallower.

It’s not just Cole and Gil. Schmidt is starting the season on the IL with a shoulder injury.

That’s a bit like Gausman being out for the season, Berrios being out for at least a couple of months, and Bassitt starting the season on the IL.

The Orioles don't have Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez has elbow issues.

TB has McClanahan and Rasmussen both returning from injury. McClanahan is already hurt with nerve issues. Both pitchers are returning from their 2nd Tommy John procedures.

I feel like the Jays will either be 85+ wins or under 75. Like if they are close, they'll trade to get now players. If not close, they'll trade all their assets who aren't long term. I'm going to be an optimist and say 85 wins.

Now is the time for irrational optimism, and I do like our lineup and hitting depth quite a lot. Much will turn on how the rotation holds up. But I'll but my stakes down on 91-71, and a trip to the playoffs.

Bonus prediction: the Jays trade Bichette at the deadline for a starting pitcher in a three-team deal.

89 wins, thanks to a better roster and greater depth this year. The improved defense will give the pitching staff more confidence to aggressively attack opposing hitters. Roden will have a good season and help energize the team. Davis Schneider will contribute as well. The front office will add, not subtract, at the trade deadline, helping propel the team to the postseason.

My official prediction: 83-79, but no playoffs. Overall, I think they've put together a slightly above-average team. FanGraphs has been running a positional rankings series and here's how we have done so far with each group:
C - 3rd
1B - 1st
2B - 3rd
SS - 12th
3B - 14th
LF - 11th
CF - 16th
RF - 15th
DH - 16th
Relievers - 19th
Starters - ~12th-15th (not yet published)

If everything goes according to plan, this is a playoff contender. But there's a lot of risk with this pitching staff, especially in the bullpen, and I think the lack of org depth will likely catch up to them down the stretch, preventing them from making the playoffs.

Cracka - nothing horrid, premiums at C/1B/2B though suggests this could be a very good team. The pen is a weak spot again, but as we all know pens are super-variable year to year. Last year the Jays were ranked #10 for bullpen at the start and we all know that was very wrong (#30 at the end).

What were the 2024 rankings vs 2025? Lets see... Brackets for actual 2024 finish (by fWAR)

• C: 3 (9) -> 3
• 1B: 5 (2) -> 1
• 2B: 19 (12) -> 3
• SS: 7 (21) -> 12
• 3B: 23 (17) -> 14
• LF: 10 (11) -> 11
• CF: 13 (19) -> 16
• RF: 6 (18) -> 15
• DH: 15 (12) -> 16
• Bullpen: 10 (30) -> 19
• Starters: 8 (17) -> ?

Some pretty wild spreads there. Clearly this is more art than science. Off by 10+ (gross error) at SS, RF, and RP. 5-9 slots off (bad estimate) for C-2B-3B-CF-SP, within 4 (good guess) for 1B, DH. So take any rankings by position with massive grains of salt, enough to kill a platoon of snails. Fun to look at, but reality rarely matches.

I've decided my earlier predictions were too wussy. Here is an update:

The Good:
Jays 89 wins
Manoah a difference-maker in the 2nd half
Bo and Vladdy have great hitting seasons
The bullpen improves from awful to average


The Medium:
Starting pitching is middle of the pack
Santander is fine but not a difference-maker
Schneider's hitting improves his defense not so much
Will Wagner is great defensively but his offense not so much

The Bad:
Bo's defense
Clement's offense
Springer turns into a pumpkin
Roden doesn't make an impact
Lots of handwringing over Bo and Vladdy contracts/trades.
If they make the playoffs they don't win many games and are out early.

The only team the Jays finish ahead of is the Yankees. They do not make the playoffs. Pitching and defence is good but scoring runs is a problem once again.

New Manager before the end of the year.

For shame throwing shade at Clement! Oh well, the Clement for MVP bandwagon is a lonely drive, with the top down, along the Alaska Highway.

The Opening Day air is electric as the singer steps up to the mic for the Star Spangled Banner. A boozy afternoon crowd starts to fill the cavernous stadium with profanities and hissing. The TV camera pans to newly-acquired veteran starter Max Scherzer, who first looks bewildered and then furious as veins bulge in his forehead. Lip readers at home register an angry-looking "What in the $%#$?" Home fans wonder if the club is really going to insist on doing this 80 more times.

Beyond that, no specific predictions aside from an 83-79 finish that's two games shy of the last WC spot.

Never did say an estimate - I'll go high with 92 wins and a division title. I think the Yankees and Orioles will have poor starts to 2025 due to injuries, which will lead to all kinds of other problems as the year rolls along for them, thus opening an opportunity for the Jays, Rays, and Red Sox. I feel the Jays are best positioned for now, the Red Sox could be if their kids develop quickly, the Rays...you never can count them out.

I'm guessing all players know what to expect - hard to believe they haven't seen the hockey and basketball highlights of the booing. I'm sure the Jays have talked to the players about it so the American ones especially won't be caught off-guard and are ready for the media and fans questions that might come up. Given most players are Trumpers (they are millionaires often) they'll have been told to keep their opinions on politics to themselves and to say how much they love Canada and while merging with the US would make it easier for them they fully understand why we would want to stay our own country. Non-US players will get it, but the Americans could be in for a rough ride if they aren't smart about how they react to it.

I feel like this team will be either an 88-89 win team or an 88-89 loss. Health is always the most important factor, but I think Scherzer nailed something in his interview about the end of spring training when (to paraphrase) he noted that everyone feels good now and the true measure of a team is how they cut through the grind. For example, the Nationals were 19-31 to start the year they won the WS, and they were team enough to get through that to the WS.

There's something about characters (specifically Bo) on this team that makes me think that at least an average start through the first couple of months will tip the balance and if they're buyers at the deadline with a positive run differential and at about .500 they probably get to 88-89 wins. If they're on an 88 loss pace, the tear down will happen, which could be fascinating in its own way.

I'll put a 50% probability on either the 89 wins or 89 losses right now -- optimistic, but ambivalent, which likely won't change until early June.

On the sad front I'm excited to watch the games this season, partly because my gut is pretty certain that this is the last season of Vlad and Bo. I want to appreciate what was here, even if it didn't amount to what we'd hoped in 2020 or 2021.

I was going to predict 79-83 but I expect a July sell-off so maybe 70-92 and a new front office after the season.

-Expecting this rotation to stay healthy is a major concern
- If the Jays don't get off to a strong start, then the season could get consumed by talk of Vlad/Bo's impending free agency and a potential July sell-off.
-Of course as a Jays fan, I'm hoping for a WS appearance!

88 wins , wild card
Boston
Jays
Tampa
NYY
Baltimore

for brevity in already way too large post i'm just gonna list projected wRC+ and ERA.

but consider that we are likely the best defensive team here too.



* TORONTO ----------- NEW YORK ----------- BALTIMORE ---------- BOSTON ------------ TAMPA BAY


wRC+

* 1B Guerrero 152 --- RF Judge 177 ------- SS Henderson 148 --- DH Devers 131 ----- 1B Diaz 135
* LF Santander 127 - 1B Goldschmidt 117 - LF O'Neill 124 ------ 1B Casas 125 -------- DH Aranda 125
* SS Bichette 117 --- DH Stanton 117 ------ C Rutschman 123 --- 3B Bregman 118 ---- 2B Lowe 124
* 3B Wagner 117 ----- 2B Chisholm 116 ---- 3B Westburg 120 ---- 2B Campbell 117 --- 3B Caminero 120
* C Alejandro 115 --- CF Bellinger 114 ---- DH O'Hearn 120 ------ LF Yoshida 117 ----- RF Lowe 116
* RF Roden 110 ------ LF Dominguez 113 --- RF Cowser 120 ------ CF Duran 113 ------- LF Morel 114
* DH Springer 108 --- C Wells 106 --------- 1B Mountcastle 112 -- RF Abreu 109 ------- C Jansen 112
* 2B Gimenez 106 --- SS Volpe 101 -------- 2B Holliday 110 ------ C Wong 94 ---------- SS Kim 110
* CF Varsho 103 ----- 3B Cabrera 98 ------- CF Mullins 106 ------- SS Story 85 --------- CF Deluca 101

* UT Schneider 107 - UT Lemahieu 96 ----- UT Kjerstad 117 ---- UT Refsnyder 114 -- UT Mead 110
* OF Lukes 107 ------ OF Grisham 102 ----- OF Laureano 103 ---- OF Anthony 103 ---- OF Palacios 108
* IF Clement 99 ----- IF Peraza 95 --------- IF Urias 109 ---------- IF Rafaela 92 ------- IF Caballero 92
* C Heineman 77 ---- C Escara 88 --------- C Sanchez 102 -------- C Narvaez 81 ------ C Rortvedt 89

* XUT Barger 106 ---- XUT Rice 113 ------- XUT Mayo 109 -------- XUT Grissom 101 --- XUT Jimenez 114
* XOF Loperfido 91 -- XOF Pereira 99 ----- XOF Carlson 103 ----- XOF Gonzalez 100 -- XOF Simpson 101
* XIF Jimenez 103 --- XIF Vivas 87 -------- XIF Mateo 87 --------- XIF Hamilton 84 ---- XIF Walls 86
* XC Bethancourt 86 - XC Jackson 87 ------ XC Banuelos 75 ------ XC Sabol 92 -------- XC Driscoll 89



ERA

* SP Scherzer 3.76 -- SP Fried 3.42 ------- SP Rodriguez 3.73 --- SP Crochet 2.99 ---- SP Rasmussen 3.32
* SP Gausman 3.78 -- SP Schmidt 3.99 ---- SP Eflin 3.83 -------- SP Houck 3.89 ------ SP McClanahan 3.34
* SP Bassitt 4.09 ---- SP Rodon 4.00 ------ SP Kremer 4.21 ------ SP Bello 4.08 ------- SP Pepiot 4.03
* SP Francis 4.13 ---- SP Warren 4.28 ----- SP Morton 4.29 ------ SP Buehler 4.25 ---- SP Bradley 4.06
* SP Berrios 4.18 ---- SP Stroman 4.44 ---- SP Gibson 4.36 ------ SP Crawford 4.33 --- SP Littell 4.27
* XP Manoah 4.14 ---- XP Gil 4.18 -------- XP Povich 4.17 ------- XP Sandoval 3.81 --- XP Baz 4.29
* XP Bloss 4.76 ------ XP Carrasco 4.75 --- XP Sugano 4.62 ------ XP Giolito 4.42 ----- XP Boyle 4.26

* RP Hoffman 2.97 -- RP Williams 2.95 --- RP Bautista 2.66 ---- RP Chapman 3.23 --- RP Fairbanks 3.46
* RP Burr 3.55 ------ RP Cruz 3.25 -------- RP Cano 3.34 --------- RP Whitlock 3.62 --- RP Kelly 3.63
* RP Garcia 3.60 ---- RP Loaisiga 3.44 ---- RP Akin 3.42 --------- RP Hendriks 3.88 --- RP Rodriguez 3.81
* RP Lovelady 3.75 -- RP Hamilton 3.46 --- RP Soto 3.49 -------- RP Slaten 3.91 ------ RP Cleavinger 3.86
* RP Little 3.86 ----- RP Weaver 3.91 ------ RP Dominguez 3.70 - RP Bernardino 3.95 - RP Uceta 3.91
* RP Green 3.94 ----- RP Leiter 3.91 ------ RP Perez 3.72 ------- RP Weissert 4.02 ---- RP Montgomery 4.04
* RP Rodriguez 3.97 - RP Cousins 3.92 ---- RP Kitteridge 3.76 -- RP Wilson 4.14 ------ RP Orze 4.13
* RP Sandlin 3.98 --- RP Hill 4.24 --------- RP Baker 3.97 -------- RP Kelly 4.24 ------- RP Bigue 4.19
* XP Swanson 3.99 -- XP Matzek 4.16 ----- XP Suarez 4.27 ------ RP Priester 4.08 ---- RP Englert 4.34
* XP Barnes 4.60 ---- XP Yarbrough 4.41 -- XP Bowman 4.52 ----- RP Guerrero 4.46 -- RP Hernandez 4.37

Jays era's....

• 1977-1982: Expansion era: never finished higher than last place, some fun players but that's it.
• 1983-1990: Outfield of the 80's (Bell-Moseby-Barfield), near HOF starter in Stieb, near HOF closer in Henke plus many others (Fernandez, Key, etc.) and a HOF GM (Gillick) and HOF Manager (Cox) - 2 playoffs, won 0 rounds, 4 playoff games won, 90+ wins twice.
• 1991-1995: White-Alomar-Carter-Olerud & Molitor/Winfield, Henke & Ward at their peak ending games early while guys like Guzman got it started well. 2 WS titles, 3 playoffs, 90+ wins 3 times
• 1996-2009: the dark ages, Halladay & Delgado wasted along with many others. 0 playoffs, 0 90 win seasons, yuck.
• 2010-2018: Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson plus Happ-Estrada-Stroman-Osuna. 2 playoffs, 90+ wins once, won ALDS twice, a WC playoff game, but lost in the ALCS 8-3 total combined.
• 2019-2025: Bo-Vlad plus others (Teoscar, Gurriel, Biggio, Gausman/Ray, Ryu, Springer), 90+ wins twice, playoffs 3 times, 0 playoff wins.

No question the most disappointing was the 96-09 stretch (I put 94/95 with the WAMCO era due to it having many of those players). The current one will be looked back at fondly someday much like the Bautista/Encarnacion one is now despite 0 titles in both cases. The BE era had a few WOW moments in the playoffs which we've yet to see in the BV era but they have 1 last chance this year. Kind of surprising how unaccomplished the 83-90 era was looking back - every year they were favorites, but just 2 playoffs and they didn't win a round, just twice cracking 90 wins with the 2nd time being that horrid ending of 1987 (losing every game the last week, 1 win would've forced a game 163 with the Tigers, 2 wins would've handed them the division, but Fernandez & Whitt got hurt and Bell forgot how to hit that week).

So enjoy 2025, the end of a fun 7 year stretch of Bo & Vlad - they'll have lasted as long as the Outfield of the 80's did (they played together a bit in '81 and '89 but not much) and made more playoffs than that legendary OF did (FYI: at one time they were all rated #1 or #2 at their respective OF slots in the majors).

Seems the Jays signed Kirk in the nick of time. Mariners are signing Cal Raleigh for 6/$105 mil covering 3 free agent years plus 2 arbitration years (including this one) or if you prefer 5/$99.4 mil in new money. He has played better than Kirk, 112 OPS+ vs Kirk's 107 but especially the past 2 years (K: 93 R: 117). Both are strong framers behind the plate. R is entering his age 28 season, Kirk his age 26 season - So Kirk's ends after age 31, Raleigh after age 33. Timing is important in baseball and getting that deal set beforehand probably saved the Jays a bit.

Fangraphs put out the starting pitcher rankings today, and the Jays ranked 20th. Like a lot of positions, there's a big group in the middle, and the Jays are towards the back of it (the Jays are 1.0 WAR short of tying for 14th with the Yankees, but there's only the Giants within 1 WAR of the Jays on the other side).

So, basically the Jays projections are that all the hitters will be average or better, and we're a little below average both in the rotation and in the pen. I like our hitting depth quite a bit, so I'm even higher on the lineup than the Fangraphs depth charts would suggest.

Weird. Last year they had pretty much the same rotation (replace Kikuchi with Francis, and whoever #5 was with Scherzer) #8 - actual results pushed them to #17, and now they are knocked down further to #20? Worst ranked of any Jays position? Seems odd to me. Of course, FanGraphs WAR is based on FIP more than anything else which will naturally rank guys like Berrios and Francis (1.9 and 1.5 respectively) poorly while overrating guys like Gausman.

Last year: ERA vs FIP - Francis 3.30-4.36; Berrios 3.60 vs 4.72; Gausman 3.83 vs 3.77. FIP loves high K's. Note: Bassitt 4.16 vs 4.08; Kikuchi 4.75 vs 3.66; Yariel 4.47 vs 4.34. With this teams defense even stronger this year I suspect the guys who put the ball in play will do even better.

Overall, fangraphs has the Jays position players ranked 4th overall in baseball at 31.9war (that's offense + defense), and the pitchers ranked 20th overall at 13.8war.

Unrelated, but I was shocked to read about Brett Gardner's son.My granddaughter just spent a week in Costa Rica.

A prediction?

Pain, of course.

That's not my prediction for the 2025 Blue Jays. That's my prediction for us, every one of us. It's what we've signed up for, the business we've chosen. Whether the Jays lose as many as 95 games or as few as 65, I promise a significant number of those losses will be absolutely mind-shattering and tempt even the gentlest among us to kick something.

As for the 2025 Blue Jays, it appears to me that the plan, as usual, is to try to put together at least a league average offense - although better would be welcome - with elite run prevention. As a wise philosopher once noted, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. But one can see how all this might work. So much of the offensive shortcomings of 2024 can be laid at the feet of Bo Bichette and George Springer. Bichette is obviously highly motivated - he even cut his hair - and while I don't expect Springer to ever be a great player again, even a dead cat bounce would help the team. And his 2024 BABiP was far too weird to happen again. I'm not a huge Santander fan, but he should at least be an improvement on the 2024 version of Davis Schneider.

As for the run prevention - I've been saying forever that there is no shortage of relief pitchers who can help you, that they grow on trees, they're out there! I don't know if these particular guys are the right ones, but it would be difficult indeed for any bullpen to be as awful as that of the 2024 Blue Jays. The gap between the performance of the Jays' starters (3.95) and their relievers (4.82) was truly remarkable. Of the 684 AL bullpens since 1977, that's one of the 20 worst negative gaps between starters and relievers. (Ask me the worst! Go on, ask. You won't even be all that surprised.)

It's probable that the 2024 team was not really as bad as their final WL record suggests. For one thing, going 19-30 in one-run games is largely a matter of bad luck. And of course the final two months of the season was the baseball version of a tank - dump all the pending free agents, hold tryouts for all sorts of kids.

Hey, it's spring. If you can't be optimistic now, you should get out of show business. Lots of time later to get punched in the mouth. Again and again.

The Raleigh deal looks like a good one for Seattle, but not quite as advantageous as the Kirk deal is for the Jays. Raleigh has been better than Kirk, no question about it; but I do think that Raleigh may be a bigger risk than Kirk - there's a lot of swing-and-miss in Raleigh's game, and I suspect there's a bigger downside risk on his bat than on Kirk's high-contact ability, particularly given the disparity in the ages the contracts cover.

Won't mind if the Jays and old friend Angel Perdomo reunite on a minor league deal.

Lots of time later to get punched in the mouth. Again and again

To paraphrase Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until Ryan Mountcastle (or Cal Raleigh) comes to the plate in the ninth with runners on base.

That's my prediction for us, every one of us.

Spoken like a true Buddhist.

Every team wins 40 and loses 40 (White Sox made that win total go down a bit, used to be seen as 50 was hard to get under, Dodgers scare me that they'll push that 40 losses minimum if they could stay healthy which is extremely unlikely). So 40+ times the Jays will make us happy, 40+ times they'll make us sad. Odds are it'll be closer to 70-70 with the other 20 deciding if it is a playoff season or a 2024. Lets hope for the good stuff.

Sounds about right to me.

Looks like the Jays haven't adjusted their 40 man roster yet. Who will be cut to add Roden, Straw, Burnes? The 2 60 day guys are already off (Manoah & Bastardo). They have 3 IL guys who might be hurt enough to get away with it (Pop, Burr, Swanson) plus Macko who is on the minor league IL - I have no idea how hurt any of them are. Then there are the weaker members of the roster - Berroa, Walker, Tate, Robertson, Lucas. I know little of most but I doubt Berroa or Tate go. Nance has no options left so sending him down will expose him to waivers anyways. The Jays site has 42 on the 40 man, including the 2 60 day guys. Varsho isn't listed as on the IL, nor is Swanson, Burr, or Pop. Guess they are waiting until the last minute to do the final changes hoping to slip guys through without being claimed as other teams do the same. Wouldn't be shocked if they are trying to trade some guys like Nance for minimal returns (A ball reliever even).