With the departures of Cavan Biggio, Daniel Vogelbach and Justin Turner last year along with the offseason trade of Spencer Horwitz and Pete Alonso's agent using the Jays as leverage to re-sign with the Mets, I had completely overlooked that the Jays don't really have anyone with experience on their resume to back up Vlad at 1B.

Will Wagner actually makes a lot of sense by default with about 500 innings there in the minors. Joey Loperfido has a similar number of minor league innings, but isn't guaranteed to make the roster.

Santander really has no MLB or minor league 1B experience.

Guys like Clement, Barger and Schneider have less than a dozen games experience as an emergency fill-in.

Obviously, the Jays have much bigger problems if Vlad can't start at 1B for any period of time.

But the Jays do need at least a competent body on the roster to cover 1B for the 30 or so games where Vlad DHs.

Outside of Wagner, who is by no means a sure thing, there aren't that many obvious choices.

It seems unlikely the FO and Schneider would ask a brand new FA in Santander to learn the position in Year 1.

Perhaps George Springer makes sense as a candidate to be asked to learn a new position if for some reason Vlad goes down for a time and Springer's D slips but his bat rebounds or hovers around league average.

Billy Beane: We want you to play 1st base for the Oakland A's.
Scott Hatteberg: OK, well, I've only ever played catcher.
Billy Beane: Scott, you're not a catcher any more. If you were our call wouldn't be the only one you got when your contract expired.
Scott Hatteberg: Yeah, hey, listen, no I, I appreciate it.
Billy Beane: You're welcome.
Scott Hatteberg: But the thing, thing is is that...
Billy Beane: You don't know how to play 1st base. Scott...
Scott Hatteberg: That's right.
Billy Beane: It's not that hard, Scott. Tell him Wash.
Ron Washington: It's incredibly hard.
Billy Beane: Hey, anything worth doing is. And we're gonna teach you.

The timing and delivery of "It's incredibly hard" in Moneyball is amazingly good. A great scene in a great movie. Even non-baseball fans can appreciate the movie. And a true story (even if it did under-highlight the starting pitching of the As).

Santander can play 1B. Wagner likely can as well. Not something I'm worried about.

Santander has 6 career starts and 73 career innings at 1B (the majority of them recent in 2023) along with 9 career minor league starts as a 21 y/o in 2016 in A+ Lynchburg when he was in the Cleveland org.

So he has some major league 1B experience recently, but is certainly not "experienced" at the position.

And again, I would suspect that the Jays would treat their new FA prize with kid gloves and not ask him to play out of position in Year 1.

I'm a little surprised that 2024 trade deadline acquisitions Will Wagner & Joey Loperfido are probably 2 and 3 on the 1B depth chart now that Horwitz is gone.

I suppose I took it for granted for years that a declining Biggio was on the roster to cover 1B on the rare days when Vlad couldn't.

Non-Vlad 1B defense

2024: Horwitz (29 starts, 300 innings), Turner (12 starts, 86 innings), Biggio (0 starts, 5 games, 8 innings), De Los Santos 3.1 innings, Wagner 3 innings.

So Biggio played a lot less 1B defense in 2024 than I would've guessed. And everyone else that filled in except Wagner is gone. Vogelbach never picked up a glove.

2023: Belt (28 starts, 242 innings), Biggio (10 starts, 107 innings), Horwitz (4 starts, 37 innings)

This was more akin to Biggio filling in that I recall. Again, all candidates now out of the org.

2022: Biggio (32 starts, 262 innings), 27 or less innings for Gurriel Jr, Katoh, Whit Merrifield and Zach Collins.

So for the first time in a few years, the Jays haven't brought a backup 1B type vet to camp. Biggio's "supersub" ability to cover 30 games is gone. And Horwitz was traded as a man without a position.

It seems in a typical year, there's roughly 300-400 defensive 1B innings needed to be covered if Vlad is healthy.

This front office has people that work on the weekend?

Santander can play 1B. He even mentioned it in his introductory press conference that he'd play there if he needed. 1B is not like other positions where you'd worry about tons of game experience. He played 12 games there in 2023. He'd be fine at 1B. Wagner is going to play 1B in spring as well. Having 3 guys on major league roster able to play 1B is fine.

Santander can play 1B. He even mentioned it in his introductory press conference that he'd play there if he needed. 1B is not like other positions where you'd worry about tons of game experience.

I didn't know that Santander said that.

There’s still a difference though between talking points at a press conference and doing it IRL. 12 games over the last 8 years isn't much experience. And for someone who isn't considered a good defender to begin with.

It's interesting that "defense at 1B doesn't matter" has persisted unchanged for so long, dating at least back decades to the Billy Beane/Scott Hatteberg scene.

Even with the analytics revolution, it's still a given that you can simply throw a glove at the worst athlete/best remaining bat on your team and ask him to perform at a MLB level for a position that touches the ball second most after your catcher.

I am still not convinced that teams are willing to pay Guerrero over 400M to play at 1B.
A good part of his value to the Jays is being the face of the franchise.
That doesn't hold true elsewhere where they already have established guys in that role.

We'll see eventually.

It's not difficult to find a AAAA/fringe MLB 1B that can be acquired for relatively cheap in the event of an emergency.

Also, the org will likely have Rainer Nunez, Riley Tirotta, Damiano Palmegiani, and Alan Roden (he played OF/1B in college) at AAA.

If Martinez can't hack it at 3B (again) then he's also a more long-term option. Peyton Williams will be at AA and may not need a lot of time there (but could also be held up by the aforementioned depth at AAA).

I do think 1B is ok especially with clubs moving away from the notion that you need a slugging power-hitter at 1B.

Thanks for the minor league depth chart outlook Marc.

I don't think the lack of a true backup 1B is a big deal overall.

But I still find it surprising that Will Wagner seems to be the man by default (and likely helps his chances of making the 26-man).

26-man roster construction has many layers, some being that your roster flexibility requires that competent backups that can cover CF, SS and 1B (as well as an arm strong enough to backup 3rd) need to exist at all times through various permutations of the 13 position players on the docket.

One can see why we have so much of an interesting team when it comes to positional flexibility. Looking at the 40 man.

• C: Kirk, Heineman, Varsho is an emergency guy
• 1B: Vlad, mix match of whoever
• 2B: Giménez, Clement, Martinez, Jimenez, Wagner, Schneider, probably more
• SS: Bo, Clement, Jimenez, not sure who goes next
• 3B: Clement, Wagner, Martinez, Schneider, Barger, Vlad
• CF: Varsho, Lukes, Clase, Springer, Berroa, Loperfido
• OF: Springer, Santander, Varsho, Lukes, Schneider, Barger, Loperfido, Clase, Berroa, many more not on 40 man (Roden likely to get a shot this year)

Likely roster: Kirk-Vlad-Gimenez-Bo-Clement-Springer-Santander-Lukes-Wagner-Heineman then 2 slots left for Lukes I suspect, and a RH to split DH with Wagner - Orelvis could work, as could Schneider. Wouldn't shock me if the Jays grab a RH DH/OF off the waiver wire this spring.

I think Wagner is #2 at 2B. If Gimenez gets hurt, who plays 2B? Wagner. Orelvis not close here I don't think at this point. I think Loperfido is most likely #2 in CF right now as well. (I think if Jays were playing tomorrow, Loperfido would be starting in CF). There are definitely some real battles in spring this year. A bunch of guys could find themselves with playing time or played down the depth chart with a hot/cold spring (Barger, Roden, Schneider, Orelvis, etc...)

This was alluded to by Atkins in his comments Wednesday, and many Bauxites before have expressed similar viewpoints.

Jays were 28-26 last season in July and August. This is relevant because it's the period of time from where the most DNA is present on this years team starting from Day 1.

In April, May and June, the team gave a ton of at bats to an over the hill Justin Turner, two guys now retired (Kiermaier, Vogelbach), a guy clearly playing injured (Bichette) and a guy that belongs in AAA (Schneider). September you throw out, the team was clearly auditioning depth pieces and resting guys.

You add in the additions they've made and decent health, and it's hard not to be optimistic.

I mention Bichette playing hurt because I watched him play two games close up in June in Detroit. At the time, I was convinced his poor play and lack of hustle/energy was due to contractual/personal issues. Events since then has me more in the "he was probably hurt" category.

In April, May and June, the team gave a ton of at bats to an over the hill Justin Turner, two guys now retired (Kiermaier, Vogelbach), a guy clearly playing injured (Bichette) and a guy that belongs in AAA (Schneider). September you throw out, the team was clearly auditioning depth pieces and resting guys.

It seems odd to me to include July 2024 data that is sullied by stats from Turner, Kiermaier, Garcia, Kikuchi, Richards and completely omits new arrivals like Loperfido, Wagner, Jimenez, Lukes, etc.

I think the Aug 1st and onwards garbage time team is a better representative sample based on personnel alone. But the team played so poorly to close out the season in September that I understand why one would pretend it didn’t happen.

I just took the best two month stretch they played all season without an arbitrary starting or end point and looked at who got most of the playing time and made my statement. Atkins repeated it during his press time Thursday.

Going by when they had the closest to what will be here in 2025 you get August with a 16-12 record, 131 for, 100 against. August started with 6 vs the Yanks/O's (3-3), then weak teams A's/Angels/Cubs/Reds/Angels - 10-6, then meh Boston & Minny to end the month (3-3). Basically they beat up on the weak teams and held their own vs everyone else. Random lineup Aug 9: Springer-Varsho-Vlad-Horwitz-Kirk-Clement-Loperfido-Schneider-Jimenez, or the 19th Springer-Varsho-Vlad-Horwitz-Kirk-Wagner-Clement-Loperfido-Barger with Schneider PH for Loperfido.

That team was a lot closer to what we'll see now except no Horwitz, add in Santander. Bo for Jimenez, Gimenez for Loperfido (not exact, but I'm shifting Wagner/Schneider to DH for this exercise). Also instead of Yariel Rodríguez we have Max Scherzer starting in the 5 hole, and the pen has Hoffman-Garcia-Sandlin-Yariel (plus Swanson-Green-Little-Nance both in 24 and 25) vs Burr-Cabrera-Yarborough-Pop (Pop still around as is Burr - they are likely to get call-ups when needed, doubt Pop will be taken by anyone if demoted). Burr is on his last option, Pop out of them, also on 40 man is last option Nick Robertson-Josh Walker and 2 options Easton Lucas. Little has 2 options, 3 for Sandlin, none for everyone else.

I'd say those changes are all upgrades. Plus, of course, many of the guys upgraded on are still around but will be in AAA (Loperfido, Jimenez) or on the bench/pen (Rodriguez). It'll be fun to see how it all falls out, who gets hurt, who stays healthy, who has a breakout, who flops. Spring is the time of wonder and fun - every team, even the White Sox, can dream big (in their case it is to lose less than 100).

Whats the update on Vlad (non)extension from Carlos Gomez?

Speculative, but I really don’t think an extension is happening. Best guess is the two sides are simply too far apart when it comes to dollars. If Vladdy can stay healthy and produce at a high level in 2025, he’s going to get paid — a lot — in the off-season. And he knows that.

To me, it feels like a Donaldson/Encarnation situation.
Guerrero is asking for more than what the team is offering but other teams might not even match that.
Most high payrolls teams have already plans for 1B and/or DH and the other teams are not spending 40M/year on a first baseman.
In that context, it's probably best to wait in the offseason to extend him.
Heck, AA wasn't even interested in keeping Freeman.
Vlad needs a 6 WAR season to stay in the 40M/per year discussion.

It’s hard to predict what Vladdy will garner in free agency. It’s all about supply and demand. Lots of commentators thought Soto (a great hitter and mediocre fielder) would receive around $500-600m. He got $765m. Being a young free agent makes a huge difference. Vladdy will be 26 next season. Freeman was 32 in his first season with the Dodgers.

If Vladdy stays healthy in 2025 and has a 7-8 WAR season, he could get a monster contract. If he experiences some knee / wrist / back issues and has a 2-4 WAR season? Different story.

Agreed scottt - it is easy to get caught up in the hype but realistically Vlad is a DH/1B which is far more limited than a DH/P and a RF/DH. But for 2025/26 offseason you'll have the Yankees weak at 1B (Paul Goldschmidt there now, but on a 1 year deal), Mets have Alonso ($24 mil player option for '26), Dodgers have Freeman/Ohtani for 1B/DH, Giants LaMonte Wade Jr. (free agent post '25), Angels a sub 1 WAR guy in Nolan Schanuel. Any of those are possible - Angels are the #1 risk for the Jays as that is where Sr went post-Expos. The Mets could go silly with $$ if they want. Giants have been in the Jays category of chasing big names past 2 winters but coming up short despite being on the coast (which should be a plus).

If Vlad had a 150+ OPS+ season then he should find the $400-$500 mil deal he wants. If he is in the 130's or lower probably not. Emotionally I'd love the Jays to sign him, but if I was the GM I'd probably stick sub $400 mil unless ownership said 'do it or else'.

I think Vlad overvalues himself and will sign an onerous contract (for the team).

I think he will get paid what he wants and more.

It's a rare instance where the Blue Jays and Vlad, imho are both going to be right.

At The Letters podcast had a lengthy conversation of comparable players to Vlad and it's a decent listen. In the end the two hosts suggest independently a 36 and 41 million annual salary over 10 years, both of which would put the contract in top 2 or 3 ever contracts after including the 28.5 arb year this year.

AtGPTkins speaks:

But yet they will pay Soto $800M to play RF poorly.
I think given the Red Sox, Mets, Angels and Yankees will need a 1B for the 26 season, his floor is $400M. Also they aren’t just paying him to be a 1B, they are paying him to be a young generational bat. Guys with Vlad’s hitting profile don’t come available on the market. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t land $400.

Teams are smarter nowadays. I think Vladdy will get his money regardless, but he's not going to be come close to Soto money. In Soto's first 7 seasons, his LOWEST wRC+ in a single season was 143. He's a historically great hitter. If Vladdy is using him as a comparable, then I don't think a deal gets done by tomorrow. I don't think any team will value him like that. The consistency just hasn't been there, and then there's the defense, base running, and conditioning aspect to factor in. I think the FO is aware that any Vladdy extension is not going to make baseball sense. It's going to be driven a lot by emotion. They have to figure out a sweet spot where they concede some money/term without going so far above their own internal valuations. Whether they have the interest in doing that is the question.

As I said before, if Vladdy's ask begins with a 4, then I think there's a chance something gets done. If it starts with a 5 or more, then prepare for just one more season.

Dude, of course 400 is going to be the floor. I'm thinking he wants closer to 500.

The Jays didn't offer 800 million to Soto...

If Vlad is a generational talent then what are Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and others who routinely put up 6-7 WAR+ seasons every year??? Is Vlad a "lower generational" player? His numbers when viewed as a whole do not stack up against those others. He's more like Harper through the first 6 years of his career except he can't run or really field and plays 1B.

It’s too early to make strong predictions about Vladdy’s next contract because we’re missing some key data, namely, his 2025 performance. If he stays healthy and posts massive numbers, some team will pay him a ton of money because he’ll be viewed as a consistent high performer (who had some ups and downs earlier in his career). His performance this year — good, bad or ugly — will shape the narrative and his market in the off-season.

Soto just produced a 7.9 WAR season playing the outfield poorly.
Soto has averaged 6.3 WAR and Vlad 4.3.
That's a huge difference.
Excess value is exponential. 2 WAR doesn't get you the average salary.

And then you project any way you like.
Vlad doesn't look like someone who will rake at 40.

This will be a challenge season — Vladdy is choosing to bet on himself to have a big season and secure a huge new contract. He’s betting *against* the Atkins/Shapiro trademark caution (that factors in caveats and concerns and was perhaps reflected in Shapiro’s end-of-year presser comments about Vladdy).

I think your 6:18pm post is a wise one and nicely illustrates the cause/source of the chasm.

I find it very curious that Keegan Matheson, Shi Davidi, and Ben Nicolson-Smith all tweeted within 18 minutes of each other just now saying the exact same thing about the Vladdy deadline/countdown.

Someone is controlling the message in these final hours...

I'm not sure Mark. It's 9am on a Monday morning in Spring Training and that's the top story by far. They're the three main reporters covering the Jays. I doubt the Jays would want to stir things up by directing journalists what to say.

I don't think I've commented much on here about Vlad's contract over the years. I've always been in favor of Rogers spending oodles of money to get this team over the top. The fact is, Shapiro and Atkins are gone if this team doesn't make the playoffs this year, or even if they make it and flop like they have the only two times they have under this regime. I doubt Rogers is going to authorize a massive deal based on Vlad's inconsistent track record (two years elite, one year good and two years meh) to be handed out by a lame duck front office.

On the flip side, if Vlad has another huge year and the Jays make a run to the ALCS and have a year of sellouts and playoff buzz, and Rogers runs the numbers in November then there's more of a chance. Like greenfrog said, and Arden and Ben talked about in their podcasts it all depends what happens this year. A long term contract won't happen unless something like what I described above happens.

Fangraphs prospect ranks:

* #66 Bloss
* #82 Nimmala
* #102 Tiedemann

There are advantages to waiting. They get to see if Vladdy can have back to back great seasons for the first time in his career (closest was 2021-22 where he was great and then very good). It’s a risk in the sense that once he’s on the open market then other teams can outbid the Jays but if Rogers was sincere in their massive attempts at Ohtani and Soto (no reason to believe they weren’t) then they could easily do the same with Vladdy, and it’s a rare situation where if the best offers are close then the Jays could have the advantage.

One important issue here is that Shapiro is also on the last year of his contract. He has no reason to make what he feels is a massive overpay just as much as Vladdy as no incentive to sign now before testing the market. Unless Shapiro and Atkins feel that signing Vladdy helps their job security (assuming they are in danger of losing their jobs in the first place) then ultimately it may come down to Rogers.

I'm surprised Bloss is so high and Yeasavage isn't in their top 100.

"Keegan Matheson, Shi Davidi, and Ben Nicolson-Smith"

After reading their "latest" articles I conclude that they have a quota to hit for content. Reminds me when I was in high school and had to submit an essay with a specified word count. There is absolutely nothing to gain for me from these articles that I can't learn in seconds from this board instead. Nothing that is unless you count losing time as a gain.

I'm quite surprised there hasn't been a Rogers intervention yet on Vladdy as there was with V-Dub back in the Ricciardi era. That extension was highly questionable at the time, but AA did at least wiggle out of it by duping LAA to trade for him.

Beyond Vlad, Kyle Tucker, and maybe Bo, the free agent class of hitters next winter is so weak there doesn't appear to be any reasonable target who might replace "bad" Vlad production from '22 and '23 even. If they don't overpay him, an already poor offense will crater.

There is such a voracious appetite for clickbait, I can't really fault guys like Dividi for prioritizing output over quality.  That's how you have to play the game nowadays. So great to have baseball back, regardless of our media-drenched environment. 

If I squint, I can see a way enough things break right for this team / wrong enough for others that we make the playoffs and even win a series or two.
It's a longshot, but in that case, I could see Vlad resigning after the season, as you guys have pointed out.   A lot depends on the vibes of a currently-angry fan base, and Rogers might put more weight on that than his management team. 

It feels like the two sides just have different valuations.  I get it, given Vlad's position and inconsistencies season-to-season.  Conditioning.  Peak vs. floor.  I think it unlikely that our conservative FO takes a risk like overpaying a guy like Vlad, but they have been willing to be more aggressive this offseason. 

It sure does feel like 'now or never' for Shapiro and Atkins. 

To me, it's not the end of the world in we keep Vlad for a meaningful run and then lose him to FA. 

If there is no contract, and we are not competitive at the deadline, obviously we trade Vlad and the rest of the veteran pending FAs.  We could get a real prospect haul, in that scenario. It's the mushy middle that I think we all fear. 

And to be clear, I hope we re-sign Vladdy! 

Poor Amir Garret doesn't seem to warrant much notice, but I like it as a depth move. 

It is a challenge - Vlad at $400 mil for 10+ is probably more than he is worth in a baseball sense, being limited to 1B with just 2 'wow' seasons under his belt. Losing him would be a PR hit. However, as I've said many times, losing a star has never hurt this club. Delgado lost - team went from last to 500 and attendance grew. Halladay lost - team had a 1 year drop then climbed again. The Jays made the playoffs far more often without Delgado or Halladay than with them (1 time with them - Delgado's first call-up season of 2 games). MLB is not the NBA where one star can change a good team to a champion (see Raptors 18/19 with Kawhi Leonard vs the year before or after - a title vs twice out in round 2, then shortly after moved out of the playoffs - just in them twice since Kawhi left).

Like everyone else I'd hate to see Vlad and Bo go next winter. But if it does happen I'm not going to be doom and gloom as one never knows what could show up next here. Do the Jays chase Kyle Tucker? Do they find a way to keep Vlad or Bo? It'll be interesting to see. #1 though is to have a strong 2025 or all 3 will have no interest in being here. Few quality players want to be on a loser - 2024 could be a one off, or it could be the going forward position for the Jays. I hope it was a one off.

I agree jerjapan. The fan base has been swept into a frenzy about how this franchise is doomed if Vlad doesn't re-sign.
If this year we get a playoff berth and a decent run, with a big season from Vlad and some excitement around here, it will have been worth it.

i think if vladdy and bo leave you can legit say goodbye to attracting any FA at all (even 2nd/3rd tier guys like Santander), so the current just ok team will almost certainly get worse, and older, and still be very expensive.

and we don't have a good system to look forward to.

so the situation is pretty dire if we don't sign at least vladdy.

My head says it's not a good idea to overpay Vlad too much in case he craters in his post age 30 years, or even doesn't match last year's stats going forward.

My heart says the Jays should make every effort to sign their homegrown superstar since it's apparent other high-profile players don't want to come here in free agency. If Atkins fails to sign Vlad and he eventually leaves in free agency, then Atkins will become the most hated Jay's GM ever, no matter how good his intentions were in regard to team payroll.

Amir Garret - the type of move a few weeks ago we'd probably have dug into but now is just 'so what' as we are in the 'lets go' stage of the offseason with games coming soon. Entering his age 33 season, he is a LH reliever who in '17 started 14 games but hasn't started one since (well 2 in AAA in '24 but those were 2 and 3 inning outings so just opener stuff). 11.5 K/9 in AAA last year was nice, but 4.3 BB/9 wasn't. Lots of bouncing from majors to minors lately, lifetime 10.5 K/9 in majors vs 5.3 BB/9. So very wild, but if he can get that under control he could be a very useful part. I suspect he'll be in AAA most of the year with a few games here and there for the Jays (when a reliever is hurt) - no options though so if called up you risk him on waivers to send back down, plus he has enough service time to refuse a demotion. I'd expect him to start off in Buffalo, then if needed will get a shot but only if the Jays feel he can stay up (ie: his wildness not an issue anymore).

The team's chances in 2026-beyond in a world without Vladdy would depend a lot on internal development this season. No one internally is going to be Vladdy anytime soon, and they aren't signing anyone who can match that ceiling aside from Tucker (which let's be honest isn't happening), so they need a committee of young players to collectively close that gap. It's going to be a big year for the farm system as well. Realistically, if they don't extend Vladdy then they are likely looking at a (hopefully brief) window of rebuilding/retooling, whether it's done by Shapiro or someone else. Although you could argue that they could be staring down that road even if they do extend him.

Minor league contract to Jacob Barnes.

Looks like Adam Macko has a meniscus tear in his knee and will need surgery. Much better than arm issue but Jays need their pitching prospects much healthier than last year (like 90% injury rate).

i think if vladdy and bo leave you can legit say goodbye to attracting any FA at all
This is overly pessimistic.  Willy Adames signed with San Francisco, who won 80 games, whose best player is 31-year-old Matt Chapman, and whose farm system was ranked 24th.Even Luis Severino signed with a team that lost 93 games and will be playing in a minor league stadium.  

Players will go where the money and the opportunity is. Even the Dodgers can't sign everyone, and no one's taking pay cuts to sign with supposedly model organizations like Baltimore or Tampa.

Bad memories from 2021.

Maroudis
Barreira
Manoah
Tiedeman
Yeasavage
Bloss

I think its easy choice to predict three solid SP from this group in 2026. FO will have lots of payroll space to reallocate by then with or without Vlad and Bo. I think they will be competitive no matter what in 2026 and 2027.

3/6 being solid is wildly optimistic

Manoah has already done it (talking about a solid SP to fill 3rd fourth of fifth slot).

Tiedeman is only held back by health.

Yeasavage or Bloss...one of them is a safe bet to "land."

That means you still have the two other high upside prospects along with whichever of Bloss/Yeasavage needs more developing.

For the future rotation post 2026 - after Gausman, Bassitt & Scherzer (post 25), maybe Berrios (opt out post 2026) we'll be down 3-4 of our current starters, but also having $77 mil freed up to pay for new guys on top of kids in house - I think it is reasonable to hope Manoah will be one of those 4 in 2027 (free agent after that), and for 1 (or more) of the kids to develop. That leaves tens of millions to pay for a quality replacement or two if needed. Plus guys drafted this year could be ready by '26 or '27 too. Not to mention Yariel Rodriguez is signed through 2028.

"Willy Adames signed with San Francisco,"...

....an historic franchise located in sunny california.

San Francisco is definitely not in the sunny part of California, fwiw. It's frequently colder than Toronto at game time.

Possible breaking:

Looks like he might be signing. Yimi Garcia's brother tweeted "an entire coty will be happy in a few hours." He then deleted the post.

He's trolling... he did something similar last night...

Manoah has already done it (talking about a solid SP to fill 3rd fourth of fifth slot).

Tiedeman is only held back by health.

Yeasavage or Bloss...one of them is a safe bet to "land."

That means you still have the two other high upside prospects along with whichever of Bloss/Yeasavage needs more developing.
Manoah hasn't recovered to league average, much less the level from his first 2 seasons. He may have done it, but isn't a solid bet anymore.
Tiedman's health is a serious concern. He might never amount to anythingWhat has Yeasavage or Bloss done to make you think they'll even be league average in 26?2 high upseide prospects are still unknown.

Will all of them be bad? not likely. But thinking that half can be counted on in any way whatsoever is, again, wildly optimistic. There's nothing wrong with being opttimistic, I just doin't see any evidence to think it's a realistic belief.Like others have said, this isn't the end of the world. I just particularly take issue with the original statement, and your follow-up. There will potentially be budget for free agents - other pitchers could appear or be traded for. 

Let me turn it around to you. Out of those pitchers how many do you think will pitch in the rotation as a regular?

I think you'd be happy if you had 2 of the 6 produce 25+ starts averaging 5+ IP/start with an ERA no worse than 0.50 runs above ML average (or better) in 2026 or 2027. My guess is the over/under for each year individually is probably something like 1.25. 1 is probably slightly less lucky than average, but 1 is probably much more likely than 2. 0 more likely than 3. Still 3, 4, or even 5 is in theory possible.

Vladdy presser at 8AM... Atkins and Shapiro meeting the media after. Probably not good if they're not all meeting together.

Around what time last night did you realize there wouldn't be a deal and how did you feel?"

Vlad: Deadline was 9. Toronto's last call was 10:30. Now im here and Toronto will have to compete with 29 other teams."

"Were you ever close?"

Vlad: "Obviously all along I had hope but especially in the end I didn't see the front office moving to my number. They tried but it wasn't the number I was looking for."

"Will this experience effect how you view this team?"

Vlad: "Listen, I want to be here. I want to be a Blue Jay."

"Are you willing to negotiate at all or is it a set number they had to meet?"

Vlad: "I had my number all along, I changed it a little bit."

"Were they ever close?"

Vlad: "No."

Vlad: "I know my value and i'm going to stick to it. The conversations went well (not contentious)."

Vlad: "to be honest i've been negotiating this contract for the past three years."

Vlad: "its great motivation for me right now to work harder than before."

If they came with an offer in 2 or 3 weeks...

Vlad: "to be honest I won't close the door if its a realistic offer."

What do you want from a team in free agency? What are you looking for?

Vlad: "winning team. That's what I'm going to be looking for. My dad played a long time and never won a world series. I want to win a world series and give it to my father."

Vladdy says no deal reached.

I don't expect this roster to be competitive in that division, not without outspending the other teams by 25% or more, which Rogers obviously isn't willing to do, so I think trading Guerrero, and everyone else, makes more sense. The ESPN story mentions the organization is already planning a July trade.

A lot of X users are blaming Atkins for this, but he's a hatchet man for the owner. He just follows orders.

This org is absolutely not worth cheering for.

I need to know Vlad wasn't asking for 500 million before I abandon ship.

Who in the organization thought it would be an effective communications strategy to trot Vlad out first and have him break the news?!

Vlad says the Jays weren't close which to me means his ask was probably $500M+. I am OK with not resigning Vlad if his ask was that crazy but you need to trade him now. They won't. Instead they'll hang on to their outside chance at the playoffs and end up trading him for much less in July.

It's a tough spot. He's the offensive star and heart of the team.

If you trade him now, it's a lost year and wasted money on Scherzer, Santander, Hoffman, etc. And you'd never get another FA to sign...

Maybe they can trade him at the deadline if the club is out of it but even then, I doubt it.

But anything you get back won't fill his void now or in the future.

He saw the club offer huge money for Ohtani and Soto, and then come in likely much lower for him. He thinks he's in their realm and wants to be paid accordingly.

This will haunt the club the entire season and will be even worse if they stumble out of the gate with the toughest schedule of any AL East team...

I am curious what Vlad's number was, but I have no confidence with this front office that it was unrealistically high.

There are reasons to think Vlad may not age well and he doesn't provide a lot of additional value elsewhere, but he also has the 10th highest adjusted OPS of any active player (minimum 3000 PAs so a couple of relevant players like Kyle Tucker are excluded).

Only two players in the Top 50 active players are 25 or younger. Soto and Vlad.

The Jays are now going to be stuck with the George Springer level of signing, wherein they sign are good players who are on the wrong side of 30 who they have to give an extra year during their decline phase to in order to get them to sign here.

Test

Question: "Were you close?"

Vladdy: "No"

Atkins: "It just depends on how you define close, that's too big of a word to talk specifically about. I'm not comfortable talking about numbers."


When one word says more than a paragraph.

I'm wondering if he's taking advantage of off field impact. Example, "i think im worth 500 million, they are offering 400 million. My agent says any offer over 450 is fair but because Bo won't sign if I'm not here, because the FO will have a much harder job building a winner without me, i'm going to try to get them to do 500 or nothing."

When one word says more than a paragraph.

I can picture school-aged Atkins, writing a test, answering true/false questions with essays.

note the clearcut use of the past tense here. it's over.


"We were emotional. We did value the player deeply, and even went past our value because we cared so deeply about him and wanted to have him here"

I haven't listened to Shapiro's presser yet but if the opportunity to resign Vlad is done then this FO screwed up with the Scherzer signing.

Atkins said: "What I can share is that we had a lot of dialogue, a lot of exchanges that felt constructive and productive. We learned a lot. We felt like they did as well. Went down to the wire."



we learned a lot, he says.

a very good learning experience all around.

The sky is not falling.

ah there it is.

sweet, sweet "shared risk".

Mark Shapiro on Blue Jays not extending Guerrero: "When you go into a negotiation, each side has rationale for a number. In this case, we couldn't align on a common number that shared risk. Both sides take some on and a decision from both parties couldn't be found."

At this point I'd be surprised if any trades or free agent signings happen unless someone else is in a desperate mood

The Cubs could use a first baseman.

I can't see the club trading Vladdy till the deadline.  All those FAs signed on to play with him, and while Shapiro and Atkins do a lot wrong in my book, they seem to operate in good faith with players.  Even practically speaking, they know that trading Vladdy would be terrible PR with spring training around the corner and would hurt at the box office. 

If there out of it at the deadline, they have a lot of assets to trade.  If they are in it, awesome. 

It's a prove-it season for everyone - Vladdy, betting on himself, Bo, don't call it a comeback, and, at last, for our beloved Front Office.   I hope they all kill it.

Besides Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and every terrible contract in baseball (not saying the first three are yet)...there is no contract that is not shared risk. Pretending that "shared risk" is an obstacle that should never be part of the equation is wishful thinking from you. Why on earth would anyone enter a trade, contract or agreement if it didn't benefit both sides?

A bit crazy for one to roll eyes and use "shared risk" as a terrible reason not to sign a contract if both sides do not concede. It's okay for the two parties not to agree on a contract. It's okay if the FO doesn't value him enough to invest in him and it's okay if Vlad doesn't trust the FO enough to sign. Just because you think Rogers can do X and should do X doesn't mean it's BS for them not to. It's not a government obligated to fix a broken bridge somewhere it's a personal decision on personal finances. Pretty simple.

I see the risk being far greater for Rogers than Guerrero. Losing out on maybe $8-10M a year for 10 years is not nearly as bad as getting stuck with a $40M a year sinkhole for 5 or 6 years.

Even if he gets hurt or underperforms, he's only 26 and could take a contract with opt-outs or a one-year deal and try again in a year. Or even something like Bregman and still re-enter free agency at an ok time.

Atkins said the contract offer would have been a record for the Blue Jays and made Vlad one of the top paid players in baseball. Here is top 10 paid players by payroll:

1. Juan Soto 51.000,000
2. Shohei Ohtani 46,081,476
3. Zack Wheeler 42,000,000
4. Aaron Judge 40,000,000
5. Jacob deGrom 37,000,000
6. Gerrit Cole 36,000,000
7. Mike Trout 35,541,667
8. Anthony Rendon 35,000,000
9. Francisco Lindor 34,100,000
10. Carlos Correa 33,333,333
11. Corbin Burnes 32,910,744
12. Corey Seager 32,500,000
13. Manny Machado 31,818,182
14. Alex Bregman 31,705,000
15. Blake Snell 31,306,185
34. George Springer 25,000,000

The rumour was they already offered 350,000,000 earlier this year. Atkins said they went past that last night.

I think they offered him more than Trout annually but less than Judge annually. They probably went overall contract value higher than anyone except Ohtani and Judge but did it by adding more years at sub 40,000,000 annual contract. Either that (they offered Vlad less than Judge annually) or they offered him 40,000,000 annually but for only 10 years which would bring him below Mike Trout for total contract dollars.


Here are top total salary contracts for the record:

1. Juan Soto 765,000,000
2. Shohei Ohtani 700,000,000
3. Mike Trout 426,000,000
4. Mookie Betts 365,000,000
5. Aaron Judge 360,000,000
6. Manny Machado 350,000,000
7. Francisco Lindor 341,000,000
8. Fernando Tatis Jr 340,000,000
9. Bryce Harper 330,000,000
10. Corey Seager 325,000,000
10. Giancarlo Stanton 325,000,000
10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto 325,000,000
13. Gerrit Cole 324,000,000
14. Rafael Dever 313,500,000
15. Trea Turner 300,000,000
16. Bobby Witt Jr 288,777,777


I think Vladdy wanted 40,000,000 annually and at least 450,000,000 total. That's a minimum 11 year deal at 40,000,000 to have Vlad through age 37 season. If I'm right then yeah...get Shapiro out of the front office. Conversely, if Vlad wanted 500,000,000 over 12 years or less then I'd side with this FO (41,000,000 over 12 years = (500,000,000) limit.

* Should read "They probably went overall contract value higher than anyone except SOTO, Ohtani and Judge"

not "They probably went overall contract value higher than anyone except Ohtani and Judge"

I'm sifting through the fan/influencer thoughts on this whole thing and it's pretty one-sided. Everyone has a super-hate on for Atkins and Shapiro. Kinda funny.

Well, to be fair, it's going to suck being a Jay's fan this year. If the team starts out poorly for the first month or two, then it's another lost season and no fun to watch.

If the team and Guerrero do well, everybody will be saying, " Hey, we have a good team. Why didn't they give Vlad what he wanted.

If the team is mediocre, which I expect, everybody will be waiting for the shoe to drop on the Vlad trade which will be a black cloud hanging over the team until it happens.

Why in the heck wouldn't fans be angry? A fifth place finish in the division despite having a top 5 payroll, which is a result of not having any cheap, young stars because the minor league system isn't producing any. A minor league system that is ranked in the lower third of baseball. And now their favorite player is on the verge of leaving ? Yeah, we should be singing Atkins/Shapiro praises.

Hard to comment without knowing what the ask and the offer was, but I don't think the FO should be criticized for not caving to Vladdy's ask. Chances are it was at least $450M and more likely $500M or higher, and Vladdy simply doesn't have the track record or certainty when it comes to long-term performance to justify that. The FO had to be willing to make a deal that they were not comfortable with in order to get this done, and they weren't, so I don't think they should be bashed for that. Where they do deserve criticism is not trading Vladdy earlier. Chances are they knew they were far apart in talks months ago. They could have been proactive in trying to balance 2025 success with long-term success, but they decided to do the most predictable thing ever which is keep Vladdy for one more year and pray it leads to a playoff appearance. It worked so well in 2018.

With that said, I think having a FO that doesn't cave to fan/media pressure is a good thing. The issue with this FO is not having a clear direction.

I believe the FO can be criticized for not getting ahead of this and signing Vlad to an extension a year ago.

A year ago his OPS+ was 116 and was a 3rd straight year of decline. I think, if anything, it would have been harder for them to come to a deal at that point.

no need to parse the precise thing that's blameworthy.

they've let this get to the worse possible place - they've paid $18m per year for him the past 4yrs and are now going to ditch him for the least possible value.

there were many other options they could have chosen over his time here and they chose to do nothing, and now are paying the price.

That's my point. This FO has zero vision, they couldn't have possibly tried to capitalize on those facts, but instead they wait until his value is at an all time high.

Their conservativeness priced both a 116 OPS+ Vlad and a 167 OPS+ out of their 'value model'.

And maybe the guy most upset today is Santander.

Don't expect any other FAs to be making that same mistake in the forseeable future.

For all the doomsayers I respond...

• Vernon Wells - 7 years $126 mil (6th richest at the time) - signed after a 5.8 fWAR season, a few years later he had a 3.7 which tricked the Angels into thinking he wasn't done. Phew. 6.6 fWAR from year signed until the end of his career. Ouch.
• Carlos Delgado - 4 year record contract (per year) $17 mil per year, $68 mil total - Ash signed it, JPR hated it but was stuck with it. 16.0 fWAR over those 4 years so he earned it, but the Jays had a very limited budget and this was too much for it. So when it ran out they let him leave without even getting a draft pic. Post leaving he produced 6.1 fWAR so the Jays did the right thing letting him go it turned out (Marlins signed him 4/$52 mil)
• Dave Stieb - renegotiated his contract pre-1991 to $3+ mil per for the 4 years left on his deal despite having him signed already for sub $2 mil. Nice to do but 1991 was his first arm blowout, then in '92 it fell off basically (1.5 fWAR over 3 years then took 4 off before his comeback). So money tossed away.
• Stieb 1st big deal - 11 years $16.6 mil in 1985. He won the ERA title that year, then had one of his worst seasons in '86 (moved to the pen briefly) before moving back to one of the best by '88. This deal was a good one.

I know there are others in Jays history - but these ones came to mind immediately as big contracts for big stars already here (home grown). 2 flopped, 2 produced value for the dollar, but only 1 wasn't regretted by the team (Stieb's first deal). Big long term contracts are massive risks for teams. Even a shorter term high dollar one can be crippling (see Delgado early 00's) regardless of player performance. A $50 mil per year deal for Vlad I see as crippling potentially even if he hits well (4+ WAR per year value). At $30-$40 mil it could work, but by $50 mil he becomes a burden unless the club is willing to stay in the $300 mil+ range going forward (they aren't). Ohtani was a unique situation, Soto I wonder if he wasn't a serious chase but a 'lets give it a shot' situation regardless of what the media said (later we learned the Jays were well behind the Mets and Yankees final bids).

Vlad would need to be a 5-6 WAR player (at least) to justify a $50 mil per year salary. Only twice has he cracked 4 WAR, one more time 2+. To sign him for $400+ mil is the team taking on insane levels of risk imo. I'm glad they tried, but it was clear for awhile that Vlad saw himself as better than he is. Nothing wrong with that and I wish him the best, but this was almost as clear a case as the Bo situation where you want to let the player figure out their value the hard/risky way. Next winter will be interesting.

you act is if we can now spend that money on anything other than severe overpays going forward.

Carlos Baerga:

"What bothers me most is that Santander was promised Vladdy would stay in Toronto."

I don't believe it.

This is exactly what we're referring to. If you don't overpay, then you don't pay. Rogers has the money to make some mistakes, but if you're worried about making mistakes, then you're going to continually disappoint.

The question is how much of an overpay do you do? IMO a 10 year deal is a massive risk for the Jays even at $30 mil a year, let along at $50 mil. There is a reasonable overpay, say near $40 per, and an unreasonable one, near $50. If Vlad has a great year then the Jays might be more open to the $50 mil per he wants, but to give him that right now would be fiscally irresponsible. Also, see the other deals - the Jays treated Delgado like dirt, then Halladay like dirt near their ends here. Yet, they still were able to sign other free agents later on and build winners. Free agents go where the money is and where winning is. Yeah, Vlad helps the winning but will he for 10+ years or will that money be better spent elsewhere? Any player that signs trusting that a guy who isn't signed long term will be there long term is being foolish imo and any decent agent would warn him about that.

"What bothers me most is that Santander was promised Vladdy would stay in Toronto."

This would be a pretty dumb thing for the front office to promise, and also a pretty dumb thing for Santander to believe without also confirming it with Vlad.

At this point, we have to all hope for the Jays to have the most successful season possible. They need to make the playoffs, and probably win a round. In this scenario, I see a path to Vlad re-signing, and maybe Bo too.

If the year goes belly-up, we could be looking at the biggest deadline sell-off in history: Vlad, Bo, Springer, Clement, Scherzer, Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Green, Yimi, Hoffman. It's crazy to think about, and hopefully doesn't go down this road - I want the team to win!

Either way, it's going to be an interesting and unique year.

"Their conservativeness priced both a 116 OPS+ Vlad and a 167 OPS+ out of their 'value model'."

great point - it was a bad time to sign him when he struggled, and it's also a bad time to sign him when he's doing well.

it somehow was never, ever a good time to sign him.

If the Jays are out of it, then I think they'll operate similarly to how they've done in the past by just trading the impending free agents. That either allows the existing front office to try again in 2026, or a new front office to take over and do what they want with the players locked up from 2026-beyond (Gausman, Varsho, etc).

As of now, the Jays have $95M coming off the books after 2025 (Vlad, Bo, Scherzer, Bassitt, Green, and Swanson). They will have another $59M coming off the books after 2026 (Gausman, Springer, Garcia, and Straw), not counting Kirk and Varsho's arbitration numbers, and possibly Berrios if he opts out (which I don't expect him to). In other words, there's flexibility to either rebuild or retool, depending on how 2025 turns out. I would imagine if Shapiro stays on, then it's going to be a retool. It might be a retool regardless given how Rogers usually operates, but hiring a new FO for that will be tricky.

John, you say Vlad has cracked 4 WAR twice like that's a bad thing. He's only had 4 full seasons in the majors, as I'm discounting Covid and a partial rookie season, and he's had over 3 WAR three times. (His numbers by Baseball-Reference WAR are even better.)

Over his age 22 to 25 seasons, he's averaged 4.1 WAR, and one of those seasons he was likely playing hurt, and he's just entering what should be his prime. We have no sense of what he wanted in terms of length or term, whether he was open to deferrals etc...

It's not unreasonable to roughly compare Vlad to Harper, who entered free agent three years removed from his monster season. He had averaged 3.3 WAR the previous three seasons (one of which was injury-shortened) and had almost all his value tied up in his bat. He got over $330 million and that was six years ago.

And, the Nationals won the World Series the next season behind the trio of Scherzer, Strasburg (his last healthy season) and Corbin and an offence led by Soto, Trea Turner and Rendon (his last fully healthy good season). The Nationals haven't won more than 71 games since.

I don't know if things will get that dire in Toronto, as injuries played a big role in why it got so bad for the Nationals, but that seems like the sort of rebuild the Jays are facing with a poor farm system and lacklustre major league team.

Vlad made it clear they have been talking for years. Odds are he has been asking a ton every time - he feels he is the best in baseball and wants to be paid like it. Yet he has 3 bad seasons (sub 2 WAR - 19/20/23), 1 good (22), and 2 great (21/24). Compare that to Soto - 5 years of 5+ WAR, a 3 at 19, and a 2.4 in '20 which is equal to a 5+ over a full season. Ohtani is another world entirely (just bat - 2 6+'s, a 4.9, 3.4, 2.7 and a 2.5 plus a 0.0 in '20, just arm - a 6.2, 4.1, 3.9, 1.3 and a -0.4 in '20). Outside of 2020 Ohtani has been insanely good. No point comparing him to Trout (multiple MVP's) or Judge (2 10+ WAR seasons plus an 8 and multiple 5's).

Yeah, Vlad is damn good. But no, he isn't a 'generational player' unless you think we have about 5-10 of those active at any one time.

Preach! 161 OPS+ on his first non-Jays season

He made $19.7M in his final season, which was only an issue b/c the rest of the team made about the same (IIRC).

Agreed to some degree Eephus. But it does go both ways - you spend a fortune on one player, then he goes Vernon Wells (total collapse) and the team looks bad and gets poor results. If they had signed Delgado after 04 they'd have seen the same thing then. A Vlad deal would probably look OK for 4-6 years but after that odds are high it'd go south fast. Now, I don't know about you, but I plan to be around in 4-6 years and well beyond that. Plus this doesn't mean Vlad is gone for sure. Many things could happen between now and then. Vlad could have a bad year and only the Jays offer him a long term decent deal. A new GM/President could be in charge who go up to Vlad and make him a solid offer, Rogers ownership could decide they want to keep him and go around the management to get it done (ala how Soto delt directly with Cohen in NY). There are many other options too. In the end, the question becomes will Vlad give up anything to stay here or will he require full market value (IE: Jays need to be high bidder) to stay?

As to over and over again - last time this happened was, maybe, Encarnacion refusing the Jays offer (which ended up being the high one in the end), or the Jays dumping Halladay after years of frustration for him or letting Delgado go as a free agent when the team had a tight budget, or maybe trading away Wells after he finally had a good year. That is nothing on the scale of 'over and over again'. Guess you could argue not signing the biggest contract in MLB history 2 winters in a row due to the player going elsewhere is over and over but that fits many other clubs, or not resigning Semien to what appeared to be a too big contract at the time.

You don't get hindsight, so if you're worried about overpaying, you'll end up losing the player.

The Jays have the pockets to have some of those 'sunk cost' contracts where they pay off quite well at the beginning but look horrendous at the end.

Look how fast the Springer deal went south.

He was hurt for half of his 2021 inaugural season where the Jays were supposed to be getting the surplus value.

It looks like the Jays will only get 1 healthy full productive season of George that was his 133 game, 4.1 bWAR season in 2022 (with 133 games arguably not a full year).

Then somehow George stayed healthy in 2023 (154 games) and 2024 (145 games) but the magic is completely gone (OPS+ of 102 and 92).

Fans were complaining about Springer leading off and getting playing time ahead of younger guys in Year 4 of 6 of the deal.

And this is with Springer to still contribute at the margins with some league average defense and baserunning.

10+ year deals are really hard for fans to extrapolate.

It will be hard to let Vlad go, but there's value to preserving future flexibility to use those uncommitted resources to address whatever annual need arises for the next 10-15 years.

we signed Springer at 31.

Vladdy is 26.

the irony is that not spending on Vlad will just end up with us spending more money on FAs in their 30s instead.

Winning comes with risks.

Looking at the top contracts in the MLB (provided by another poster above, I added the teams)... sure there are some bad ones but those are mostly perennial winners on that list. NOT having (Bluejays) on the below list says enough.

1. Juan Soto 765,000,000 (Mets)
2. Shohei Ohtani 700,000,000 (Dodgers)
3. Mike Trout 426,000,000 (Angels)
4. Mookie Betts 365,000,000 (Dodgers)
5. Aaron Judge 360,000,000 (Yankees)
6. Manny Machado 350,000,000 (Padres)
7. Francisco Lindor 341,000,000 (Mets)
8. Fernando Tatis Jr 340,000,000 (Padres)
9. Bryce Harper 330,000,000 (Phillies)
10. Corey Seager 325,000,000 (Rangers)
10. Giancarlo Stanton 325,000,000 (Yankees)
10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto 325,000,000 (Dodgers)
13. Gerrit Cole 324,000,000 (Yankees)
14. Rafael Dever 313,500,000 (Red Sox)
15. Trea Turner 300,000,000 (Phillies)
16. Bobby Witt Jr 288,777,777 (Royals)

Katie, I 100% agree with you.
Of course there's risk in paying Vlad but I think losing a home-grown star player who wants to be here for nothing is a much bigger risk.  The FO just continues to alienate the fans; I think we'll be talking about these negotiations many years down the road and not in a good way.
I think there are 4 possible ways this season unfolds and every one of them leaves the Jays worse off than if they had made a deal now:

1. Vlad performs much worse than the contract he wanted - which means the team probably stinks.  The FO can take comfort they didn't overpay him but it will mean another bad year, further clouded by the cloud of his impending FA.
2. Vlad has a good season then leaves for nothing.
3. Vlad has a good season then re-signs for more than what he wants now.
4. Vlad is dealt mid-season and the year is another waste - a rebuild begins.

I find it very hard to see any realistic winning scenario.

Interesting information offered up by Mark Shapiro to the press (starting at the 17:20 mark on today's episode of the Blair and Barker podcast) about the involvement of Rogers Communications CEO Tony Staffieri and owner Ed Rogers in thencontract discussions. Sounds like the entire management and ownership team passed on Vladdy's demands.

Best Jays Position Players age 21-25 (asterisk = started later than age 21)

clear top-5 imo

* McGriff* (23-25): 1664pa, 150wrc+, 14.3war, 5.6war/650
* Guerrero (21-25): 3026pa, 142wrc+, 16.7war, 3.6war/650
* Olerud (21-25): 2631pa, 136wrc+, 18.3war, 4.5war/650
* Bichette (21-25): 2328pa, 126wrc+, 15.9war, 4.4war/650
* Alomar (21-25): 3421pa, 121wrc+, 23.1war, 4.4war/650

next 5 imo

* Barfield (21-25): 1938pa, 119wrc+, 14.3war, 4.8war/650
* Wells* (22-25): 2078pa, 112wrc+, 9.6war, 3.0war/650
* Kirk* (22-25): 1563pa, 109wrc+, 10.2war, 4.2war/650
* Moseby (21-25): 2907pa, 108wrc+, 17.6war, 3.9war/650
* Fernandez* (22-25): 2279pa, 104wrc+, 14.4war, 4.1war/650

Winning cures all ills - with or without Vlad/Bo, if the jays win fans will be happy and vice versa.

Sounds about right that he would need to make that clear.

Bingo 85bluejay - given your name here I assume you are in my age group, thus suffered through the Ash years and saw that a single star doesn't equal winning, nor do 2 stars (just ask the Angels fans). It is a team game, you need a full team to win. If Vlad is lost that is 3-6 wins a year that needs to be recovered. With luck at 1B you can find a 2-3 win guy (maybe Alonso after the Mets dump him for Vlad) to get half of that right away.

Absolutely it's a team game and 1 or 2 stars isn't enough.  That said, how many teams win pennants without stars?  I don't think very many.  So when you have stars, they're young, want to stay, and are homegrown to boot, I don't think you're helping the team's chances of winning to potentially let them leave when you could lock them up.  Maybe the Rays are the exception but they are masters are drafting and development and the Jays are no match for them in this department.
The team's not a contender in the first place, so downgrading from their best player isn't moving forwards.

hey we already replaced those wins with Gimenez!

I wonder if Big Papi saying that Vladdy deserves 13/585 ( 45 per) is close to what Vladdy numbers are. Would you sign Vladdy for that amount?

I find it interesting that Vlad wants:

a) to be one of the top-5 (top-3?) paid players in the league, and probably highest paid 1B of all time (for a long time)
b) to be on a competitive team that can win the world series so he can "give it to his dad"

when those two objectives are directly in competition with each other.

There have been / are plenty of mercenary players who always took the highest $$$ deals. Not all of them have rings (whether in baseball, hockey, football, etc).

just plain bad luck that we end up with the players who want us to sign bad deals, and other teams get the guys who want to sign good deals.

I also found it interesting that Shapiro mentioned Ed's involvement in the negotiations. If Rogers was involved and they were still that far apart, then it seems like this goes beyond the FO. Keep in mind, no matter what the Jays have offered other players, their biggest contract given out is still $150M to Springer. Rogers has to be on board with these monster signings, and it seems like they were with Ohtani and Soto, but maybe not so much with Vladdy.

If Vladdy's ask was anywhere near that David Ortiz quote below, then I don't blame the Jays for tapping out.

So Big Papi thinks Vlad is worth 10% less annually than Soto.

Is anyone else out there secretly attempting to create a fantasy trade involving the exchange of Vlad for Devers?

Now that'd be funny - Devers is signed through 2033 (age 36) at $20-$33 mil per year (it varies by year) and is a legit 3B, not great on defense but not horrid. You'd have him from age 28-36 so a few years of prime and a few decline at a price that is high but not insane. Doubt the Sox would do it, but if they think they can sign Vlad long term they might as their clubhouse is becoming toxic right now and Triston Casas at 1B isn't a good idea (might become something, but hasn't had a 2 fWAR season yet) if they are contending, plus they don't like their DH Masataka Yoshida (1.4 fWAR over 2 seasons is pretty bad, 112 wRC+). I'd expect other players to be involved in a deal but there probably is a deal to be made if both sides want it.

It remains amazing to me that the team would kick off spring training by first calling a press conference for Vlad to humiliate the organization, and then to stage separate Atkins and Shapiro press conferences where they mumbled about "valuations" and how disappointed they were, while then committing to losing him for nothing after the season.  Surely, I live in the only city with a team employing a front office that would have done anything of the sort.  It reminds me of the sea captain from The Simpsons, furious about his bad restaurant review in the newspaper, until others ask "why on earth did you put the review up in your window?"

Mike D,

You may want to read Cathal Kelly for a different take of the same events. He blasts Vladdy.

heh good post mikeD.

Definitely a different narrative in the Cathal Kelly G&M article.

He at various points states that Vlad currently hates both the FO and the team.

He also chastises Guerrero Jr for committing the cardinal sin of "negotiating in public", which I don't recall him doing.

He doesn't really provide any evidence for these assertions. He also seems to think the sky is falling and blames everyone on all sides.

The rumour out there is that the Mets love Vlad. We, Vlad, and his agent know that Steve Cohen has oodles of money. Its possible that Vlad, with this knowledge, declined to lower his ask and just wait for the Mets. Its also possible that his agent has had some informal discussions with the Mets.

Even though Vlad is not a free agent, this negotiation could have gone as if he were.

On the bright side Vlad is playing for a contract in 2025, as is Bo.

Glad to hear someone out there is reporting it as more than 'Jays evil for not giving Vlad everything he wants'. Tried a bit to discuss online and hit good ol' Mike Wilner who is 100% on the hate Atkins/Shapiro train, even bringing up the Myles Straw trade as a point (suggesting the difference is what that guy is costing over 2 years per year). That is irrelevant unless he thinks the Jays will do that annually for 10 years if they don't sign Vlad. Is Vlad worth that much extra? Is $10-$15 mil a year that irrelevant? No. That much can cover a solid reliever or make the difference in if you sign a guy or not for the rotation, another position, whatever. The money spent on Vlad won't magically be a non-factor on anything else. If he gets $50 mil while providing $30 mil of value then that won't help and odds are, given his history, he will be worth $30-$40 mil a year, not $50+ (2021 & 24 were in that ballpark, 22/23 were not with '23 being barely over replacement value). FG has 21 worth $50.6 mil, '24 worth $43.7 mil. Would you pay him per year what his best year was for 10 years? I sure wouldn't, and FG tends to be over valuing guys if anything (Soto at $65 mil for last year, Ohtani $72 mil with no pitching (adds $20-$40 mil a year based on his last 3 years pitching).

In the end, I hope for a fun 2025. We can worry about Vlad & Bo's contracts after the year is over.

Teaming up Soto & Vlad seems like an excellent idea, which is why I strongly advocated the jays pursue such a trade since Soto landed with the Mets and it was obvious that the Vlad extension was going nowhere.

Rumour is Vlad came down slightly from 600 million ask.

I also found it interesting that Shapiro mentioned Ed's involvement in the negotiations.
Rogers was also mentioned as being involved in the Soto pursuit. This isn't surprising: I don't think there's any way Shapiro and/or Atkins are getting a blank cheque to commit hundreds of millions of dollars for a decade, a contract that most likely will outlast their jobs in Toronto. These superstars also go beyond being merelly baseball players - they're marketing & media assets to Rogers as a whole. Rogers likely has an assessment of their value to Sportsnet, for example, which isn't strictly a baseball product.

If it's true that winning is a high priority, Vlad is on the wrong team. He should try to get to the Dodgers. The owner here isn't willing to pay for a team that would outlcass the Yankees every year.

$600m deferred or non-deferred?

Ohtani got a $700m contract but the present value of the contract was estimated to be around $460m.

So the Vladdy contract might have ended up being around $400-430m in present value, if it was structured in a similar way to the Ohtani contract.

If it's true winning is a high priority and Vlad truly wants to be here like he says but has refuses to sign because he's using Soto's deal as a starting point for comparison then Rogers should go sign another free agent that's serious like Kyle Tucker.

Same logic as yours.

According to Vlad's godfather he is worth 585/12. Wonder where he got that number from after Vlad told reporters he came down slightly).

There is a good chance that later this year we'll be saying, why didn't the front office trade Vladdy to Seattle for some high-end prospects at the summer 2024 trade deadline.

The FO has tried signing other top free agents, but has been unwilling to pay them what they want. It's strange that the Jays are content to be such an expensive fourth place team. Why not shed payroll and be a cheap fourth place team, like the Rays or Pirates?

Failing that, they could decide to be a first place team, but the status quo just makes no sense to me.

I don't agree that they have not offered to pay top free agents. I agree they have not been able to sign top free agents. There is a big difference. All available facts show that this FO was willing to pay Soto, Ohtani, Cole, Seager, Verlander and Burnes top market dollars and every one of them picked another destination willing to pay similar but not more money. That's on the player not the ownership. That means top free agents don't seem to want to come here but it's not because of the money.

This is not a good reason to go and overpay Henderson or Witt Jr money for Vlad Jr. To me he is taking advantage of the bad state of the team post 2025 and the fact he likely has strong informal offers from BOS and NYM. He's using that to his advantage to try to get Toronto to match and they won't. At least not right now. Maybe if he can put up a 7 WAR season this year they will pay him what he wants but he is coming off a 1.3 WAR season in 2023 before his 6+WAR season in 2024. He has a remarkably low floor and I would pay Bo Vlad's ask before I paid Vlad. The idea that Vlad wants more than 200 million more than Tatis is crazy to me.

Returning to your criticism of ownership not spending, I do think it's obvious that there is an issue with the "Shapiro-ness" of this FO which is probably a deterrent to some of these big game top of class free agents. This FO does not have anything to show these free agents other than $$$$ which is not what these free agents want when they have one or two other similar offers. That's the criticism of this FO that many have made which is hard to defend. Farm system, culture, coaching.

The only good reason I can squint and think about to signing Vlad more than he is worth (my opinion only) is that it would undue a bunch of the bad business done by this FO in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and show that they are not tethered to Rays style "value." You're either a big spending club or your not and it seems to me that Shapiro is threading a needle of being a big budget club but never going all in because he is tethered to Rays style evaluation. Probably would be better if he just overpayed Vlad, Bo, Springer, Bassett, Gausman etc and then just used cheap players everywhere else.

Yeah you can see it's not an easy thing to criticize Vlad or defend the FO either way, I go back and forth. Ownership, however, has been a pleasant surprise during Shapiro's tenure.

The only good reason I can squint and think about to signing Vlad more than he is worth (my opinion only) is that it would undue a bunch of the bad business done by this FO in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and show that they are not tethered to Rays style "value." You're either a big spending club or your not and it seems to me that Shapiro is threading a needle of being a big budget club but never going all in because he is tethered to Rays style evaluation. Probably would be better if he just overpayed Vlad, Bo, Springer, Bassett, Gausman etc and then just used cheap players everywhere else.

Then we agree. Those "cheap players" should be prospects the farm system is sending up to the big club every year. Also, I don't think there's such a thing as overpaying. Was Tulowitzki overpaid when the Jays traded for him? Most people thought so. There's always some desperate team willing to trade for a washed up has-been with a big contract. We're fans, not owners. Are any Dodgers fans saying "Yes, we're going to win, and probably more World Series in the next 5 years, but boy, is this team expensive! I think we should cut payroll." Dodgers fans are thinking like fans. Yay, we're winning. Jays fans are forced to think like owners, which we're not. We should be talking about wins, not payroll. I don't remember anybody being worried about payroll on those WS teams, back when the Jays had the highest payroll in baseball.

To me, the bigger issue than not re-signing Vlad is the lack of direction. If Vlad wants $550m or something with little to no deferred money, that's crazy and Jays shouldn't do it. However, if you aren't going to sign him, you need to trade him and they should have probably traded him last deadline and then done free agency differently (no giving up picks to sign Santander), lots of short deals especially relievers/starters. It's this middling non-plan that I find intolerable. Just kind of limp along and hope Jays sneak into the playoffs and then what? Even if Jays make wildcard or something, then what? You lose Vlad and Bo for nothing and you are in much worse shape next year.

Cathal Kelly's articles are clickbait. He's not a real journalist.

Adrian we are im agreement except about criticizing ownership instead of front office.

Glevin I agree with you (and I think Adrian does as well). There are more than a few posters who have been singing this chorus for one and even two years now and it appears they have been right. Lack of FO (not ownership) direction and inability to make commitment to get better vs straddling the middle and mediocre.

I really dislike Cathal's takes and attitude of negativity and typically son't read him but he had some good points about Vlad.

I get the distinct impression that Vladdy is overvaluing himself and the org was wise not to go too deep.

With that said, it's the front office's fault it got to this point, has been unable to develop a pipeline of talent (something they were supposed to be good at), has not made great trades, has not done better signing FAs, and has generally (from multiple accounts) created a pretty negative environment that is pretty lousy at communication.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see another club like the Mets or Red Sox or Dodgers meet his overblown price BUT given he has conditioning concerns (he looks to have put on a few pounds this past offseason) and is a 1B/DH so it's not a guarantee that he'll get more.

I've also said for a couple years now that he's not a great long-term investment (nor is Bo).

Anyway, I'm abandoning any more thought/energy on this topic until the offseason (or possibly the trade deadline).

no player is a "good" longterm investment.

the problem is every year you're competing against teams that have many poor longterm investments that are unfortunately very good in the shortterm.

but even then, for this franchise, i'd argue that not losing Vlad at this moment in particular is an extremely good longterm investment.


the bigger problem which people may have missed in yeterday's atkins presser is that he seems to absolutely believe he has put together a top tier contending roster this year and that is what is guiding his decisions, both long and short term.

CBS Sports has released their predictions for 2026 free agent contracts.

Vlad
Prediction: 12 years, $456 million ($38 million AAV)

Tucker
Prediction: Nine years, $333 million ($37 million AAV)

Bo
Prediction: Seven years, $185 million ($26.4 million AAV)

Schwarber
Prediction: three years, $72 million ($24 million)

"the bigger problem which people may have missed in yeterday's atkins presser is that he seems to absolutely believe he has put together a top tier contending roster this year and that is what is guiding his decisions, both long and short term."

Well I guess there are still some fans taking what a FO says at face value.

A friendly reminder that in 25yrs as owners, Rogers has managed to field exactly one legit contender - a 1st place record in the toughest division in basebaall, supported by by far the best run differential in mlb - and immediately got rid of the GM that very same year.

It's a comedy/tragedy so epic it would make shakespeare jealous.

Nah, this is no Shakespearean tragedy.  You guys are stats heads, right?  I mean, someone always under performs, and sometimes it's hard to know exactly why.   And we do know our FO does the 'other stuff' well - everything the fans pulling for the best team don't care about, but owners do.  Employees do. 

What Shapiro and Atkins should have done in the past is not the same as what they should do now, but for what it's worth, I think they are being their 'best selves' right now.  They stuck to their beliefs, and may have extracted good value in the FA market.  I disagree with the philosophy, but these are smart guys who believe in themselves, just like the fading vets on the team likely believe in themselves. 

I just like that this is a prove it or lose it season for Shapiro, Atkins, Bo and Vlad, and really, a lot of players.  The aging rotation.   Aging Springer.  Injured Varsho, Manoah.  The plan B team of FAs and acquisitions, tons of rookies and fringe guys, pending FAs.
And I expect this utterly pragmatic FO to have a great trade deadline, wherever the team is at the deadline.  I can't see them as constitutionally capable of moves designed just to try and save their jobs.  Everyone sees the writing on the wall, and they remain pragmatists to a fault.

And if they don't prove it, it's see ya later and proper rebuild time. I'm sick of the status quo, we all are, and am willing to endure another blah year if it means we get rid of our FO.  And I'd be happy if the team proves me wrong. 

I agree Glevin. I can understand a Rays type plan, relying on cheap prospects and vets and occasionally winning. I disagree with it, but I understand it. I also understand outspending the Yankees and aiming for first place every year. What I don't understand is the expensive fourth place team plan that is evidently being used.

Jer they built one of the worst value rosters in baseball, with one of the worst systems.

Not sure what the "other stuff" is, but I do agree that in terms of what Rogers is looking for, they are ideal.

Friendly reminder to look up winning percentage of said GM that was actually fired BEFORE he delivered the results. Nice troll job again. I'm going to get ahead before more bashing comes from you because you're upset Vlad wasn't resigned on his own deadline day.

Just stop following this team already it's clear you hate the owners and front office and now they don't have the players you love coming back. Never mind that nobody wanted to own this team in 2001 and if it wasn't for current owners it likely would have been contracted. Nah, lets just pretend that this ownership is incompetent because they haven't won more than the Red Sox or Yankees. Right.

Not sure what the "other stuff" is, but I do agree that in terms of what Rogers is looking for, they are ideal.

Not OP, but I suspect some of the "other stuff" is praise from vets like Kiermaier or ?Justin Turner that passed through the org briefly that the Jays as an org went over & above to make their families feel welcome.

It's interesting as well that a guy like Yimi Garcia returned and re-signed almost immediately after being traded away in the firesale, which rarely happens.

Schedule is up on Sportsnet. First game Saturday. Can hardly wait.

Might have something to do with opportunity.

(re: Yimi)

dalimon5, it is clear that a large % of the fanbase is extremely frustrated with the owners and the front office.

The Jays have a very expensive and mediocre team with one of the lowest rated farm systems in baseball. This screams incompetent management.

"The Jays have a very expensive and mediocre team with one of the lowest rated farm systems in baseball. This screams incompetent management."

In 2021 and 2023 they had an affordable and contending team with at least an average farm system. That was not incompetent management and to call them that now without acknowledging the earlier part of their tenure is one-side in my view. It's not normal to have a cheap or average payroll, and to contend and to have a strong farm system. There is only one team in baseball that has done that. One team. The rest of them are mostly also very expensive, also have poor farm systems and depending on the year are also at the edge of their windows. The NYY are teetering on the edge. The Phillies will be there next year, etc etc.

It's hard for me to agree that this management is completely incompetent and inept when the complaints have only really come from most at the tail end of a window. You wouldn't sign a lease that increases year over year for 5 years and then in the last year of the lease scream bloody murder that you're being ripped off would you?

*Should read 2021 and 2022 not 2023.

But yeah, my point is there is too much complaining happening. If I get this right (not all posters of course but some and most general fans):

- Vlad should be resigned at all costs now because he wasn't resigned earlier whether or not he was willing to doesn't matter

- George Springer was a good signing for 3 years but now the management should be crucified and kick Springer off the team for the last 3 years because they are overpaying

- This FO is too cheap and needs to pay up and stop being cheap with free agents but somehow magically avoid overpaying same players in their decline years

- This team has not won a playoff game in 10 years under this FO even though they have made it to the playoffs so they should be fired and someone (who?) new should come in which will some how fix these above problems

- farm system is not good enough and it's 100% because the FO is inept and cannot bring alond and develop talent. It has nothing other than do with pitching injuries, Manoah falling apart, Martinez and his suspension, etc...just erase all of that and pretend that none of these prospects and young major leaguers have any shine left...they are all sum zero now

- Top 5 payroll is not enough, Rogers is bad ownership and they won't pay to win

- My favourite, by far, AA wouldn't have let any of this happen and would magically make this team more competitive with a great farm system to boot and players would magically want to sign here more. Don't worry about the fact he couldn't spend or attract free agents while here, couldn't get ownership to pay up and didn't really compete until he was notified he was being replaced because of his failure to entrust ownership

- I am sure same fans will be posting in June after Bo returns to form that this FO blew it by not resigning Bo.


You can see what I find contradictory and silly with the ultra reactive takes from the fans. The Yankees and Mets will have Soto and Judge as major anchors in due time and will be just like the Angels are now with Trout and Rendon. It all goes around in cycles.

when the complaints have only really come from most at the tail end of a window.

I don't believe this to be true.

This list is hyperbole that you're typing out yourself. Unless you're referencing Twitter comments, BB.com posters don't sound like that.

Good points on the fans here. I've read interviews where players on the Jays are surprised that fans here tend to get on owners and management, not the players. It is an oddity. Rather than get mad at Bo for playing terrible last year when healthy, we get mad at the GM for not having an all-star in AAA ready to take over. Instead of being mad that Kikuchi never gave us a 2 WAR season, then pitched extremely well in Houston, we are mad the GM traded him and then didn't sign him in the winter. Romano had a terrible year (hurt, sucked when on the field) but we get mad that he wasn't kept, despite the Jays signing a better guy to replace him (Hoffman).

In 2021-2023 the team made 2 playoffs and missed one by 1 game. 89-92 wins each year. Yeah, they sucked in the playoffs with that nightmare game in '22 being the ! on the Vlad/Bo era unless they do something this year. Kind of reminds me of 83-90 the Stieb-Bell-Moseby-Barfield (until 88) era. They made 2 playoffs but will always be remembered for the year they didn't make it - '87 when they lost 7 straight to end the season (damn that one hurt). The Jays cleared them all out for next to nothing (Al Leiter for Barfield was all they got). The big deal (Fernandez-McGriff for Alomar-Carter - 2 all-stars and 2 HOF'ers in their prime) shifted everything, along with other deals (Junior Felix - a young hotshot we thought [was about 10 years older than we were told] for Devon White a WOW defender with a meh bat) and free agent signings (Morris, Winfield) changed everything. But that team also had a strong farm (top ranked at times) despite horrid drafts (Gillick was infamous for wasting first round picks). But once the contending window was done it was DONE for 2 decades+.

So bottom line, this GM/president combo has its issues (farm weaker than it should be, terrible at PR) they also have their pluses (get Rogers to pay up to get quality players and to get the stadium rebuilt). We've had 4 years of contending (20-23) plus a 5th in '16 many give credit to the previous GM for (who basically was Ash but more fun up until mid-'15). In the end we've had more fun Jays baseball than any period since the 83-93 heyday. They were part of the 15/16 fun too (would '16 have been successful without the Hutchinson for Liriano/McGwire trade? or signing Marco Estrada & JA Happ? Would AA have been able to do those same deals or would he have done different ones? If AA got what he wanted (to be president with no restrictions) would he have been able to convince Rogers to spend like Shapiro has? Unlikely given the 10-15 era. Jays made it by 3 games that year - Happ & Estrada (was here in '15 but was a free agent, could've easily left) were keys.

A lot of the media HATES Shapiro and Atkins - Mike Wilner leads that crew so strongly that I'm finding his podcast nearly unlistenable now as that is a key part of every episode it seems. To me what matters is winning. Should the Jays flop in '25 that is probably it for them, but if they win they get new 5 year deals I suspect.

Uglyone, don't get me wrong.  They have done an objectively poor job, and I find it almost funny that they are so bad on value.
I just don't think vladdy's non deal, in isolation, is bad. 

In my opinion, they should have signed Bo and Vladdy both long term early on, but that can be high risk, high reward, and they don't do that.  That's why we get the unexpected Grichuk extension - cromulent at best, but providing cost certainty - and no early longterm deal for Vladdy or Bo - high risk, high reward. 

And I would have fired the whole crew after the Berrios playoff fiasco. 

But here we are, and I can still see reasonable paths to a successful season this year, despite our brutally unforgiving division. 

JB21 I don't know how many threads you've read in the past 4-5 years but I've read all of them and yes I can say with certainty that there are posters here that sound exactly like that now which did not in the winning years of the same regime.

Why don't we all just enjoy the spring? Games start in Saturday!

Hopefully we start to get better (positive) media coverage of the spring (ie. non-Vlad contract stuff)...

I'm sorry, but it's ridiculous to say a 20-year-old putting up a .772 OPS in the majors is having a "bad season."

This is a textbook illustration of completely ignoring context when looking at numbers. And nobody here is suggesting the Jays should pay him Ohtani or Soto money.

The strongest argument against signing Vlad is the fear of how he'll age, not arguing a 20-year-old putting up above-average offensive numbers is somehow having a bad season.

Katie, what are you responding to?

dalimon5 I don't know how many threads you've read in the past 4-5 years (kidding...) but if you change your setting to 'display mode' = nested you can see which message Katie is responding to.

John, it's possible to examine any management/ownership regime in sports and find good and bad points. I object to your comparison of Pat Gillick, who was a genius who built two WS champions and numerous playoff teams out of an expansion team, with the present day group. Fans of the Jays owe Pat Gillick a debt of gratitude that can never be repaid. He just might be the greatest modern (ie. post-Red Auerbach) GM in any sport. Glen Sather and a few others would be in the running too. I personally think the problem with this organization is the owner, not the executives. Certain owners always win, and others always lose. Losing owners, like Woody Johnson, frequently burn through executive brain trusts. Under Jerry Buss, the Lakers won with the Logo as GM, but also a few others. Speaking of Buss, Jack Kent Cooke won as Lakers owner, and then also as Redskins owner. Two different sports. The Dodgers were so awful before the current Guggenheim/Magic Johnson group, that fans were actually boycotting and picketing the owner until he sold out. I think they've been in the playoffs ever since. The fish rots from the head.

dalimon5, I might be wrong but my memory tells me different and that many of the folks that are being critical of the current regime have been consistently critical since they took over. I don't think it's a 'what have you done for me lately' type thing. Again, that's just my recollection.

I use flat view as its hard otherwise to see the latest posts. To my recollection only Nigel and 85Bluejay more or less have been critical and consistent about the direction of this club under this FO going back many years.

Everybody else either didnt complain then and doesnt complain now or was balanced or shifting. Then there's some that hated the FO, went quiet during 21, 22 and 23 then came back to hating. Its all in the archived posts if anyone wants to look, but its easy to see just by following current threads as its the same posters now. Anyways this isn't a witch hunt and this site is still the best place for Blue Jays info and in all likelihood I don't think i'd be as passionate about the Blue Jays if not for this site.

Not sure what we're talking about.

I praise them when they do good and criticize when they do bad.

Overall that's come out to more criticism than praise.

If the Blue Jays are in serious contention this year, they might want to consider pushing some extra chips in at the trade deadline to acquire rentals that could help in the postseason. Go get that big bat and big arm in an effort to advance beyond the WC round. Because the team might not be very good for a few years after 2025.

I am with Marc Hulet wishing that soon the conversation changes to ST. I am interested in our minor league teams. The AAA close to ready or at least close to their peak minor league development. ie Burnette, Cooke, Fluharty. Is Eric Lauer back to his former level before the last 2 years of arm trouble. Which of W Wagner/Kasevich will progress. This will all get sorted out by the mid year.

I also looked at Scott Mitchell's 50 prospect list a few times to see the Dunedin, FCL and DSL players he liked.

If this whole Vladdy contract sitch stays the same, I'm going to just try and really enjoy this season and hope Vladdy hits like a maniac and earns whatever billions come his way. Then I think I'm going to try and stop being a baseball fan. I don't really like the culture of professional sports these days. And surely there are more important things to pay attention to and invest energy in in these times.

"I don't really like the culture of professional sports these days. And surely there are more important things to pay attention to and invest energy in in these times."

This actually isn't talked about enough since the advent of media coverage with the twitterverse and the rapid increase of breaking down the aspects of time and space never mind the democratization of media coverage. Marshall McLuhan couldn't have been more correct. What's astounding is his theory proves to be more and more apt with each passing year.

Athletes today want more of a say in where they play now. The Jays have trouble attracting free agents because they have the double whammy of being in a different country and also being a losing team.

Spring stuff (no Vlad).

Roden listed as 'prospect to watch' for the Jays this spring at MLB.com - they have 1 player per team listed. They have him as a potential in CF which seems odd - he has 4 pro games in CF (31 2/3 innings), 4 in college summer leagues, vs 108 in LF, 126 in RF as a pro. If he is to make the team, Springer will need to go to CF to start 2025 while Varsho is hurt, then put Roden in LF or RF depending where you put Santander. Both Roden and Santander seem best for RF so that might be a spring decision depending on the Jays plans for the rest of 2025 once Varsho is healthy. Assuming Roden can pull it off (he did hit 314/406/510 in AAA over 71 games last year, and 287/395/445 in AA over 23/24 over 100 games so he might be ready at age 25).

No question the OF will be a fun spot to watch. Even after Varsho is back you can do a rotation to get Santander, Springer, and Vlad DH time along with whoever wins the temp job while Varsho is out. Note: Springer has sucked as a DH - 216/326/403 lifetime, same for Santander - 208/286/409. Vlad hasn't stunk as a DH - 258/343/463 but it isn't near his overall #'s. So no really good choices at DH right now. Maybe Roden can work there, or Wagner, or a mix/match of them (both bat left which makes it more difficult). Guess we'll see what the Jays do soon enough. Oh, btw, Roden has 1 inning at 1B as a pro, 39 games there in college. Heck, in college he even caught once so I guess he'd be the new emergency catcher.

Dalimon5, there was a comment earlier in the thread that said, referring to Vlad, "he has had three bad seasons" and listed 2019 as a "bad season."

That's the comment I thought was ridiculous, regardless of whether you think they should have resigned Vlad as a general proposition. I tried to quote it on my phone, but failed miserably.

We can move on from Vlad though.

(Not from you, to be clear.)

Vlad had 0.3 WAR in 2019. Maybe not a bad season if you don't like that term, but replacement level season? Mediocre season? Not much of a difference to me. Good for a 20 year old? Absolutely, but that only matters when forecasting someone's future not when talking about their past.

All good Katie.

"Athletes today want more of a say in where they play now. The Jays have trouble attracting free agents because they have the double whammy of being in a different country and also being a losing team."

Toronto
2024 74-88
2023 89-73
2022 92-70
2021 91-71
2020 32-28

Boston
2024 81-81
2023 78-84
2022 78-84
2021 92-70
2020 24-36

NYM
2024 89-73
2023 75-87
2022 101-61
2021 77-85
2020 26-34

Four of the last 5 seasons were winning ones in Toronto. Facts...

I don't really like the culture of professional sports these days.

I hate to say it, but I agree. Real folks are being priced out of attending in person, you need to subscribe to a bunch of different channels, etc. I started following the WNBA recently b/c a) it's fun basketball and b) their league pass subscription is cheap and taking your family to a game (in Seattle) is affordable.

True facts dalimon5, but Toronto generated 0 division titles and 0 playoff wins during those 5 years as well.

I haven't been consistently down on this FO at all. In general, I think they are sort of average. I think their drafting and development (IFA's in particular) has been a bit below average and their pro scouting/trading a bit above average.

I have been consistently critical during two points in their history (that have turned out to have been remarkably similar). After 2016, they had an aging but still contending team. I said then and I stand by it, that the team was at an inflection point and they needed to "do something" - either invest in the club to continue the run they were on or start selling to "reload". They did neither and it was a mistake that set the club back in its development. I was very critical of the "do nothing" approach. Last offseason (not this one) was the inflection point for this team. They had a team that was good but needed help to really contend. They should have either invested in the club or started selling. Again, they did neither and the club is going to pay for it going forward. Again, I have been critical of the "do nothing approach", its a road to a sort of nothingness when a team is at an inflection point on the success curve. The current situation, in my view, has particularly lacked in a coherent plan (they have sort of, kind of, invested for 2025 but not really and they are really looking like they will muddle along).

I will note that in both 2017 and now marketing and revenue generation almost certainly dictated "do nothing" so my view of the baseball direction would have been at odds with making money. I understand that you need to be sympathetic to the FO given that.

As to their approach to building clubs, really my only consistent criticism of the FO is that they seem to value "roster balance" less than most and I think that that has been a problem. When they first started their teams were constantly pushing players up the defensive spectrum (sacrificing defence for offence) and now we are experiencing the exact opposite. I'd favour more balance where possible.

In short, I think that you can do a lot worse than this FO (and better). But I do point out when I think that they have done something wrong and when they have done something right.

Vladdy liked an Instagram Photoshop of himself in a Yankee uniform. You can't be the "I don't want any distractions" guy and be liking Instagram photos of yourself with an arch rival.

Villifying Vlad for not taking a significant discount to sign with this FO after they wasted years not valuing him smacks of just plain cope tbh.

Nah this is vilifying Vlad for being unprofessional. You don't go to SF on a road trip and talk about how you would love to sign there while rumours are swirling that you want out of Toronto. That's what Bo did and was grilled and he came back end of season to try to save face.

What Vlad is doing is even worse imho. Act professional. He's be benched if he did that while playing for most other teams. I hope Max can take control of the clubhouse to try to ground the petulance.

Wow I can't believe he did that. Hurts to look at. This may get messy...he won't hold out but definitely wants to be paid or traded out.

Vlad and Bo are gone and that is going to be a complete circus all year long until they actually are gone.

Odd that spring training has begun but some decent players are still out in the cold without a contract - David Robertson, Jose Iglesias, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Jose Quintana, J.D. Martinez, Craig Kimbrel (was sure someone would take a flyer on him) among many others. Ex-Jays still floating include Dillon Tate, Adam Cimber, Jay Jackson, Anthony DeSclafani, Noah Syndergaard, Kevin Pillar, Whit Merrifield, Rowdy Tellez, and Yan Gomes. I'd give a lot of them minor league deals, but none outside or Robertson a ML guaranteed one. Maybe JD Martinez if none of the kids show/do well in early spring.

A signing - Ryan Yarbrough to a minor league deal. Excellent imo.

Yarbrough back to Jays on minor league deal. The front office has never disrespected Vlad or undervalued him. Vlad has tens of millions of dollars already so is willing to take all the risk to go for biggest deal possible. Good for him but I am positive Jays made very fair offer. Anyway this isn't the issue. The issue is you can't go liking Instagram fan posts of you on other teams and pretend you only care about concentrating on the current season. It's very immature.

Bringing Yarbrough back is an excellent idea - as a long man in the pen and emergency starter he's almost ideal. I'm surprised it only took a minor league deal.

Cubs just put Alexander Canario on waivers. Would be a solid grab for the Jays. Just entering his age 25 season. Has a 136 in his 45 ML PA, has hit 252/345/521 in AAA (120 games), no more options. Bats right so would be ideal for a platoon at DH with Wagner but also plays the OF (over 1900 innings in CF, 1500+ in RF, 381 in LF). IMO this kid looks like a near perfect fit for what the Jays could use - a full 6 years of ML control, can hit, can play all 3 OF positions, bats right (vs LH Wagner, Loperfido, Roden, Barger, and Lukes). Unless someone else can make a deal the Jays should step in and grab him.

@Atkins2Alcatraz

The Blue Jays asked for Alex Canario in trade talks with the Cubs for Danny Jansen at last years trade deadline.

Thumbs up on Yarbrough.

Canario would be solid.

Andrew Heaney is off the board now (to Pirates)

The Vladdy/Bo issue should be manageable if the team plays well and stays in contention. Things could get messy if the team plays the way it did last year.

I like the Yarbrough addition. Very good depth move for the pitching staff.

I'm gonna go ahead and just say it. Vlad doesn't want to be in Toronto he just wants to make the most money he can wherever that is.

If the team sucks again expect a massive sell off again come July. Harder to do though as to suck we'd need Vlad, Bo, and others to underperform who we'd want to be trading. FA post '25: Vlad, Bo, Bassitt, Scherzer, Green, Swanson - lots of quality guys. 3 of whom the Jays signed as free agents, 2 developed, 1 acquired via trade.

No question Yarbrough is a great one to get on a AAA deal. Andrew Heaney got $5 mil from the Pirates (92 ERA+ over 160 IP last year, only once was worth 2 bWAR - back in 2019 dead on 2.0. He was at 2.2 fWAR last year, and 2.9 in '18 as well. Not a guy the Jays would bother with but solid for a team like Pittsburgh who cannot afford to risk $15 mil on a 40+ year old.

Btw, the Cubs let Canario go so they could give Justin Turner a 40 man slot. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Canario outhits Turner in '25 so that just seems odd unless Canario is hurt or has other issues (ie: bad clubhouse guy, bad rep off field, or something else) which we can't know.

Trying to think of who the Jays have now for the pen with Yarbrough back in the fold. Using FanGraphs to get a list of 40 man and NRI's...

• Hoffman, Green, Garcia, Swanson - a solid top 4, none 'WOW' but all solid.
• Sandlin, Little, Nance, Rodriguez - nice 2nd 4, but a bit weak. Would like another LH there and dumping one for Yarbrough makes sense.
• Pop, Yarbrough, Burr - solid backups
• Walker, Lucas, Nick Robertson - the #12-14 for the pen.
• NRI's: Lovelady, Garrett, Jacob Barnes, Gowdy, Pardinho, Juenger, Fluharty, Fisher
• 40 man starters: Bloss (Macko on IL, as is Manoah & Bastardo)
• NRI starters: Lauer, Kloffenstein, Bash

Guys with 0 options left: Pop, Lauer, Yarbrough, Lovelady, Garrett, Barnes, Bastardo, Nance, Rodriguez, and the 4 locks for pen.

Looking solid, but I felt that way last year with Romano there instead of Hoffman, and with Richards, Mayza, Pearson, Cabrera, White and others in '24 too. Pens are such a mess to make, but so critical too. Hopefully this year the Jays don't have nearly everything go wrong again like last year.

Nance and Pop are out of options.
Yarbrough is kinda like KK who go no interest after a good year with the Jays.
They could use him. He was killing left bats last year and wasn't shelled by right bats either.

I'm betting Nance & Pop are both released by the end of spring unless they really show well - both will be given offers of jobs in AAA but odds are they'll head elsewhere. Yarbrough I expect to make it - him and Rodriguez will be a very solid 1-2 punch for the 5/6/7 innings when needed or to do tandem starts when required (3-4 innings each). Leaving 6 slots for 1 inning guys (Hoffman, Green, Garcia, Swanson, Sandlin, Little). Of course, Hoffman was a starter so he can go more, Green & Garcia both were just over 1 IP per game here last year, Swanson under (due to sucking hard early on but in '19 was a starter). Sandlin is a typical modern reliever - sub 1 IP per game but not by a lot, high K, high BB, but effective. Little the same for IP per game but much lower K/9 (7.1) with a poor BB/9 (3.7) but as one of the few LHP here he'll get that job regardless.

LHP for the pen: Little, Yarbrough, Walker, Lucas, Lovelady, Garrett, and Fluharty. Jimmy Burnette is in AAA but hasn't looked good (7.20 ERA in AAA last year). Eric Lauer is a starter, but could go to the pen if needed (entering his age 30 season I'm sure he'd be the bat boy if he had to), Trenton Wallace not invited to the party yet, but is a LH starter at the AAA level. Ricky Tiedemann is probably out for all of 2025 (sigh).

Hitting battles are different - 3B has Clement but Barger-Martinez-Wagner-McAdoo-Schneider-Stefanic-Jimenez will all be in camp trying to take it from him. CF - for April it looks to be open (Varsho appears to be out for most of April, but might not be) and with Springer able to cover it if needed any OF prospect could get a shot (Schneider-Straw-Lukes-Roden-Loperfido-Clase-Berroa-Schreck) with the losers at 3B/OF still having a shot at DH time. Lukes I expect to make the team as the 26th man due to age (age 31 season) making him a non-prospect thus extra AAA time not being useful for him. Schneider gets a default slot if others don't impress due to being here already for a year+, Roden is being hyped up a bit it seems so he might have a real shot to prove himself. Wagner I expect to get a shot at DH/backup IF. I suspect the guys fighting to take over 3B would need to have a crazy good spring and Clement a poor one to take it over, but stranger things have happened. Plus Vlad will get some time there too.

Canario is out of options, so he'd have to make the team out of Spring Training. Given how bad the Jays are against LHP, he'd probably have a role here as a 4th OF and/or platoon player as he crushed lefties in the minors last season. Not sure if he can cover CF though, and the Jays need that from a 4th OF.

I agree with Nigel regarding the lack of direction with the FO. To me that's a far bigger issue than anything that happened with Vlad this week. I don't think losing Vlad is the end of the world like some Jays fans do, but if they aren't developing talent internally, and aren't trading for that young impact talent, then it just feels aimless. Maybe they sneak into a playoff spot in 2025, or maybe they don't, but either way the outlook for 2026 isn't good because they didn't plan for anything beyond 2025. They are repeating 2018 even when they saw that exact plan fail miserably. Although I think the 2025 team has a much better chance of make the playoffs than 2018 did, so I'll give them that.

The 2026 team as of now has 3 impending FA's in the starting lineup (Kirk, Varsho, Springer), Santander and Gimenez. The rotation is Gausman (impending FA), Berrios (player option), and Francis with Manoah coming back from injury. Even if 2025 ends with a playoff berth, I'm not really seeing a path for sustainable contention here, even if they agree to terms with Vlad and/or Bo.

Seems David Ortiz on Twitter claims Vlads price was 13/$585 mil. If so then it was insane and tge Jays were right to say no.

Glevin, I don't completely disagree with you, but the context of the conversation was the wisdom of signing Vlad to a long-term deal given his track record. It was looking at Vlad's past number of good and bad seasons and the wisdom of giving him a high-dollar contract in light of this.

Which, I would argue, is specifically looking at past performance in the context of predicting the future. It wasn't a discussion of the specific contributions of Vlad to the number of wins of the the 2019 team.

Thumbs up on Yarborough.

He wanted 10% less than Soto annually and wanted to blow past everybody else's deals except Soto. This would seem to match his comments on Monday that he cane down a bit from his price (600 million) and that they were not close.

With Varsho on the shelf, the 26th man is probably an outfielder.

I just don't see the point in trying to ascertain what another person is thinking, since, you know, it's not possible. I prefer to steelman Vladdy - I think he gave them the number he believes he will deserve after he has the season he intends to have. 

And I think the Jays were right to say no.  In hindsight, each year after his debut, it became and more likely that they just weren't going to commit to Bo and Vlad through early extensions. 

I keep thinking this, but I like this convergence of variables going into Spring.  Our best chance of a fun season is if all these 'prove-it' guys, some in conflict with each other, really commit to pushing themselves and each other.  
It's good 'storytelling'.   Those are the angles I'll be most interested in, since these guys have to prove it to me to before I start emotionally investing....
Hey Dalimon, can you elaborate on that McLuhan thing?  I don't know enough about him aside from the 'medium (BS, as far as I can tell these days) is the message thing', but I just read 'Amusing Ourselves to Death'.  Neil Postman was his student and talks about him throughout, while analyzing a later era.  Another seemingly prophetic text on media for me, up there with Chomsky and Herman.   No political intent here, just really interested in the subject.  End nerdishness.    

Katie, I get what you're saying, I just don't think there ever was a great time to sign him because of a) his pre-existing wealth b) his up and down career. Rosenthal (who is maybe worst major baseball writer) suggested the Jays should have done the Tatis extension but Tatis had 6.6 WAR over a full season of PAs and Vlad had less than 1 WAR in more PAs.

MM is a big subject not to condense into a single post here, but in the context of "medium is the message," in the way I was using it its about how the internet has changed things. How the medium (twitter, youtube, tv with 1000+ channels, subscription services with thousands of choices, etc) Specifically how content has changed to suit the medium or how content that shouldnt exist now exists to justify the "always on" mediums of today.

When you run out of baseball games and still need to broadcast the whole time you start reversing direction and make up content without the games being played. The requirement for content chooses what is made about the subject rather than the subject determining what is made. You can go on and on...if you're a right wing TV station then no matter the content coverage that message is going to be slanted by ulterior motive determined by the medium. The point in my post was just that all of this "medium over message" leads to a new landscape and culture in sports where less of the original subject (baseball games and competition) is covered and instead removed for everything around thst subject like money, contracts, criticisms, what ifs etc etc all designed to drive the platforms with which they are broadcast through and nothing else. Sure there are exceptions like Stephen Brunt, etc etc...this is a mobile post and I'll pause it here.

I think electric carrots post was more about the "medium is the message" from the viewpoint of front office in Vlad negotiations. Rather than a message based on true feeling or fact, "we dont think Vladdy is a generational player," "he's asking for too much money," or "we just don't align on his value as a 1B and we've decided to move on," this FO has a message that is completely determined by the corporation machine. It's not a medium per se but Shapiro and Atkins essentially talk about what happened through the lens of a sales pitch from Rogers to buy stock. At the end of the say you have a party that does not want something, decides they will not buy something and then goes piblic to say how badly they value it and wanted it. That's a clear cut case of the message being changed to suit the "medium." MM used "medium" back in the day but its interchangeable for me with agenda. You can even call this gaslighting in some instances and this is what electric carrot finds exhausting and likely why he hopes Vlad kills it and earns billions. I just feel Vlad is as bad as the FO with his comments wanting to stay but he's just a kid being lead astray by greedy agents.

I am a huge Marshall McLuhan fan. He was a very unconventional and also undisciplined thinker and I think of him as more of an artist than a scholar. I think the key thought that McLuhan gave us was that -- first man makes the tool and then the tool makes man. By that I think he means that humankind creates systems to communicate (print, film, internet, social media) and then the engrained qualities of that medium inflect who we become as a culture even more than whatever is being communicated inside of it. If you want to see how social media and the cell phone have transformed gen z probably the best modern scholarship on that comes from Jonathan Haight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVq4ARIlNVg. McLuhan more or less predicted this would happen while writing in the late 60s.

ec - fabulous post but Haidt speaks more to modern day ignorance from newer generations. MM was very specific and focused on media whereas Haidt goes wider and deeper like a non existent good government should.

Anyone else getting the sense now (from media coverage) that the Jays are basically at a point where they think Vlad can't repeat last year's performance again this year and will just tell him at end of season "come back to us with your best offer and we will beat it by $1?" or if he poops the bed they can just sign him for their original offer (if it was 500,000 when he was asking for 585,000, for instance?)

500,000,000 and 600,000,000 ...

"I just don't think there ever was a great time to sign him because of a) his pre-existing wealth b) his up and down career."

And that's how you end up losing the best young hitter in franchise history for peanuts.

I think the Jays, rightfully IMO, just don't think Vlad is a good investment long-term at the type of money he's looking for. They don't want to go above their valuation for that reason. Vlad provides no value defensively while being at the absolute lowest position on the defensive spectrum (can't move anywhere except DH), he's the worst baserunner in MLB based on Savant's new baserunning stat, and he's had issues with conditioning while in his physical prime. Are any of those things going to age well? Probably not. When you know the only way a player will be elite is if he has a 165 wRC+ every year, which Vlad has only done twice in six years, then it's a level of risk that most teams wouldn't be comfortable with, much less one that tends to lean towards risk aversion like the current FO. Vlad's wRC+ per season: 106, 110, 166, 132, 118, 165. You literally have no clue what you're getting year to year based on data currently available, and it's not like he's a plus defensive SS or CF like Tatis, Witt, and Rodriguez were when they signed their massive deals.

I could definitely see a scenario, assuming Vlad is still a Jay through the entire 2025 season, where he tests free agency, sees that no one is willing to give him the astronomical money he wants, and ultimately ends up back with the Jays. Probably not a high probability of that happening, but I think there's a chance. More likely, assuming Shapiro is still here, is the team probably keeps their valuation of Vlad roughly the same and are prepared to move on without him. I guess the one bright spot to that is the team is pretty good when it comes to MLB scouting (not so much amateur) so the fact that they have a lot of money coming off the books will give them a real chance to upgrade the team for 2026-beyond. They just need one or two of their young position players to stick this season, and a SP to emerge.

My updated thought on the saga:

I would have tried to sign Vlad and Bo for a combined 60 million/season out of a 200+ million payroll. I would have offered Vlad about 35 and Bo 25 annually but I would have structured it to be deferred and put year one at very low AAV and years 2-5 at very high AAVs.

2025 Bo gets 15 million and Vlad 20 million or whatever it is to get under lux tax
2026 Vlad gets 51,500,000 and Bo gets 40,000,000
2027 same
2028 same
Then just let those AAVs come down as they get into their 30s and defer as much as possible

There likely was a way to get them both signed, save some money and stay within budget. FO chose to deal with two players with bigger personalities by challenging them to prove it first.

It's hard to trade your best player when you're contending. Boston would have been better keeping Betts. Baltimore got nothing for Machado. And of course, Halladay brought back peanuts.

A year of Vlad is worth more than a bunch of B prospects.

Varsho appears to be out for most of April, but might not be) and with Springer able to cover it

I haven't been following early ST developments, but I shudder at the prospect of a 2025 Jays team that is pretending to contend this year running George Springer everyday in CF for the month of April with supposedly one of the toughest early schedules.

George has only played 11 innings in CF over the last two seasons. Some of this has to do with the acquisition of two world class CF on the roster over the timeframe.

Springer's defense in RF seems to have graded somewhere between OK and below average.

I just can't accept that the Jays are seriously considering running out 2025 Springer defense in CF with his 2024 bat and giving lip service to this being an all-in year.

Thanks for the thoughts on MM guys!  I definitely recommend "Amusing Ourselves to Death" if you haven't read it, reading your posts it seems to be a torch passing from McLuhan to Postman for the "Age of Showbusiness",  aka the mid 80s.  Also, Jonathan Haidt's latest book, "The Anxious Generation", is urgent, especially if you have / work with teens. 

Is there a seminal work / biography for McLuhan worth reading?
Is Springer better defensively in CF than Lukes?  

I've read Left Field for Springer.

CF Daulton Varsho
Injury: Right rotator cuff surgery
Expected return: Early 2025; Opening Day in question
Status: Varsho has been in Dunedin, Fla., for the past month and is now hitting live BP and throwing at 90 feet. Manager John Schneider says the club has to operate as if Varsho "may miss" a little time, which still feels likely to open the season. (updated Feb. 13)

There's no need to shudder. John N was just saying Springer "could" play CF. Schneider has come out yesterday in ST and said Springer will play some LF and basically said he's in competition with 3 other players for the leadoff spot to which Springer said he's onboard.

"A year of Vlad is worth more than a bunch of B prospects."

Absolutely, but look at what Houston got for Tucker.
-A 3-4 WAR 3Bman who isn't a free agent until 2028
-The #70 prospect in baseball according to Fangraphs
-A cost controlled backend starter/swingman.

Or look what Padres got for Soto. Michael King, a top-100 prospect in Thorpe (they flipped for Cease) , a decent backup catcher in Higashioka, and 2 cost-controlled young pitchers.

No, I wouldn't be interested in trading Vlad for a couple of B prospects but I think the price of rentals for a full year can be higher now and if the Jays can get a good package with good young players/top prospects they should do it.

He spent a lot of 2023-24 in an outfield with Varsho and KK. I wouldn't be shocked if that distorted all their numbers. Having a capable fielder like Springer back up KK or Varsho would mean that those two would be able to go all out at more low percentage balls (potentially ones in RF territory they shaded into). If that is the case, then George would not be getting boosted for making "impossible" plays, but rather would be dinged for accruing as many 'average' touches since some/many opportunities were being taken away.

I have no evidence of this, but I've seen no signs that Springer is a bad outfielder yet. I also haven't looked at how defensive metrics have evolved in over a decade. So maybe that's my spring homework.

all the chatter on Varsho so far is that he's ahead of schedule and that being ready for opening day is possible

Nats got a haul at trade deadline

08/02/22
to Padres
LF Juan Soto
1B Josh Bell

to Nats
1B Luke Voit
LHP MacKenzie Gore
SS C.J. Abrams
OF Robert Hassell III
OF James Wood
RHP Jarlin Susana.

There are legitimate reasons for and for not signing Vladdy (both of which have merit) to a massive extension. My objection to the entire Vladdy situation is that they have reached this point at the end of the offseason and not near the beginning. This has not been handled well strategically. They should have reached the point of "can he be signed/will he sign" earlier so that all options over the offseason, including trading him, were on the table. Maybe only B prospects were on the table but maybe not. But also, knowing that Vlad and Bo are gone would potentially have changed how they approached their offseason.

Pretty much the most sensible take on the whole thing.

"torch passing from McLuhan to Postman"

Postman as I recall did see himself as the torchbearer for McLuhan's ideas transposed to the 80s/90s. I like his books a lot. Both McLuhan and Postman were tossed aside by scholars of Postman's day and labelled "technological determinists." It was a dismissive phrase -- and not entirely undeserved. The cultural studies and critical studies scholars brought needed attention to cultural context and power dynamics of communication systems. As a scholar McLuhan is easy to dismiss because of the vagueness of his ideas and the scattered quality of his writing. I think if you look at him less as a scholar and more like a creative nonfiction writer you get more from it and see his brilliance more clearly.

I know I've read a lot about his life but I don't recall the source any longer -- so I don't know which bio to recommend.

I think The Medium is the Message is the best McLuhan book. I also loved The Gutenberg Gallaxy but it's maybe a bit more esoteric.

Nothing exceeds Heidegger for esoteric. Step outside the academic POV and McLuhan is viewed completely differently as a refreshing and practical take.

I can't handle Heidegger and philosophers of his ilk in their original sources, too pedantic.  I stick to biographies and analyses for philosophy (At the Existentialist Cafe is my latest), but esoteric social science works for me.  Time to read some McLuhan!

For 1 year of Guerrero they could get many more years of control, but they can't improve the team. There's other ways to improve the roster next year.

It's worth noting Gimenez was a big piece in the Lindor trade.

It's quite possible that nobody offers Guerrero a long contract. We'll see.

If Varsho can be back for opening day that'd be wonderful. I'd be looking at Lukes as CF if Varsho is out for a few days to 2 weeks. I more put Springer there as a possibility, plus with the manager loving him it wouldn't shock me. Loperfido & Clase are both small chances, but doubtful. Same for Berroa and Straw. If it is going to be a month or two then the kids would have a better shot imo, but for a short term thing I'd probably just use Lukes and let him get a good look at the ML level - guy deserves every PA he can get.

At least, real baseball. Looking forward to seeing a lot of the battles this spring. Hoping one or two young guys can really seperate. Will be watching Roden, Loperfido, Orelvis, Jimenez, Barger, Schneider, and Wagner especially. Loperfido starting today. He had a swing change I think (Orelvis and Schneider also starting) .

Spring training is always its own season - tons of fun to see guys emerge from nowhere, dreaming of them being a star. Some fun stuff from last spring via The Baseball Cube.

• 1000 average: 5 guys 1 for 1 - Enmanuel Bonilla, Arjun Nimmala, Jaden Rudd, Michael Turconi, and Joey Votto (sigh) - Both Votto and Nimmala hit home runs their only AB.
• Most HR: 4 by Kevin Kiermaier
• Most 3B: 2 by Ernie Clement
• Most 2B: 5 by Bo
• Most H: 20 by Bo
• Most R: 12 by George Springer
• Most RBI: 12 by Brian Serven
• Most SB: 8 by Daulton Varsho (0 CS)
• Most BB: 10 by Daulton Varsho
• Most K's: 17 by Kevin Kiermaier & Eduardo Escobar
• Most HBP: 3 by Isiah Kiner-Falefa
• Most DP: 3 by Schneider, Kirk, Springer, and Bo
• Most TB: 30 by Ernie Clement
• Most XBH: 7 by Alejandro Kirk
• Best line over 2 ABs: Gabriel Martinez 875/889/1.625 over 8 PA. (592 OPS in AA in '24)
• Best line over 10 PA: Vlad 463/511/707 closely followed by Springer 415/510/707

Pitching stats are even more wild - 14 guys with a 0 ERA, 24 K's by Paolo Espino (remember how many of us were hoping he'd get a shot after a strong spring?).

All shows the danger in reading too much into spring - Serven and Espino were not surprise comebacks. Bo did not have a good year, Kiermaier did not find his power stroke. Still, fun to watch and cheer. Just keep in mind how little the stats really mean.

For fun - 2014 HR leaders in spring - Bautista 6, Encarnacion 3, Dan Johnson 3 (yeah, another spring 30+ guy who had a hot streak but didn't do anything in the majors). 2006 is as far back as that site goes - 6 HR for Eric Hinske that year, Wayne Lydon at 25 had a strong spring (405/511/514) but never became anything, heck never reached the majors even.

Pretty much the most sensible take on the whole thing.

Agreed! Kudos Nigel.

I hope noone is playing the "he's in a good spot" drinking game. Buck will leave everyone blackout drunk before the third inning.

limited use in looking at ST for anything but might as well track usage, both position and batting order, even though we know the regulars will be crammed up at the top of the order whenever they're in the lineup.

today:

* 1. SS Bichette R --- SS Kasevich R
* 2. 2B Gimenez L ---- 2B Stefanic R
* 3. 1B Guerrero R --- 1B Tirotta R
* 4. C Kirk R -------- C Sanchez R
* 5. CF Loperfido L -- CF Berroa S
* 6. 3B Clement R ---- 3B McAdoo R
* 7. LF Schneider R -- LF Schreck L
* 8. RF Lukes L ------ RF Roden L
* 9. DH Orelvis R ---- DH ?


* P1 Lucas
* P2 Little
* P3 Pop
* P4 Flujarty
* P5 Pardinho
* P6 Lavall
* P7 ?

Nunez comes in for Orelvis.

orelvis has plenty of flaws but that power is so effortless.



https://x.com/BlueJays/status/1893380647546130582

Could see Orelvis as a VS LH DH already (probably Jay's best option) but also likely they start him in AAA to work on all the things he needs to work on.

yeah I don't think they need to rush him up this year. Age 23 in AAA when he's got stuff to work on is more than appropriate.

But i think people still sleep on him a bit when his production for his age is still legitimately the most impressive of all our prospects.

Damn that HR is impressive (watched the ugly link).

Orelvis is one of the few players in the upper minors that you can dream on. The power is very real, and the contact rates have slowly improved. Would love if he won a spot out of Spring Training, though it’s difficult to see a path unless the team is okay with putting a 23 year old at DH. They seem too obsessed with defense to start him at 3B, and 2B is obviously occupied.

Crazy talk:

Sign JD Martinez, DH him
Move Wagner to 1B
Play Orelvis and Clement at 3rd
Move your farm system to top 10 or higher with a trade of you know who

I also agree that was a pretty damn impressive home run by Orelvis and that he's for real. Also agree with ugly that he's best suited in AAA. He's there to put pressure on the Clement/Wagner/Barger platoon at 3rd that is likely to break camp. Don't waste him at DH unless he absolutely blows the doors off this spring and they have no choice.

As impressive (and effortless) as the homer was, I noticed he was a lot less jumpy at the plate. If he can be more patient like that going forward, it bodes well for his future.

I'm not loving Loperfido's new stance. He's very far away from the plate and very bent over. I think he's going to struggle to stay balanced which is going to hurt his contact rate... especially worrisome for someone who already struggles with making consistent contact.

dalimon5 - that crazy idea kind of makes my point. At this point in the year it would take serious gymnastics to pivot off Vladdy. I’m not even sure they should pivot off Vladdy. But if you spent the offseason seeing what the market was you could have weighed the positives or negatives of moving him. I think the market for a year of Vladdy was something like a: an ok regular plus a top 100 prospect. For example, the Giants could have offered Heliot Ramos and Bryce Eldridge. You might not like that return but that deal would also have left the team 30-40m of payroll room over the next 2-4 years (versus signing Vladdy). What that would have bought you on the FA market this offseason is an open question but they never gave themselves that option.

If the team was going to trade Vladdy, they probably should have done this at last year’s trade deadline — Seattle might have been a good match. That is the kind of move the Rays know how to make: trading a somewhat-controllable veteran at the right time when he still has good market value.

The second-best time will probably be at this year’s trade deadline.

2025 (Vladdy) isn’t exactly like 2017 (Donaldson), as the team has a better chance of making the postseason this year than it did in 2017.

Trading Vladdy this off-season and simultaneously trying to compete in 2025 doesn’t make sense to me. The return wouldn’t be enough to catalyze a fast rebuild (because the farm system is weak overall) and jettisoning Vladdy would all but ensure the team wouldn’t make this postseason this year.

At this point, having made the moves they made, I would prefer to see the team try to compete with the current roster and then add a good position player (maybe a leadoff hitter with exceptional OBP ability) and — ideally — a dominant arm (rotation or bullpen) to help with a postseason run. Then start rebuilding in earnest after the season.

Of course, if the team does poorly in the first half, then they’ll be looking at a selloff at the trade deadline.

I have no clue how Orelvis looks at 3B, I would imagine it’s not good if they moved him to 2B in the minors, but having him and Wagner as the 3B/DH combo (in whatever order you want) seems like the ideal setup with the existing roster. The Jays need internal growth this year both for their long term health and to increase the ceiling of the existing team, and Martinez is one of the few (only?) prospects who does that (maybe Barger too to some degree). It’s only one game so a long way to go to see who wins jobs but hopefully Orelvis gives the team no choice.

As to Vlad's value - it is very hard to measure what other teams would've/did offer. GM's aren't stupid, they know what is going on. I'd bet strongly Boston & NY (both of them) made inquiries as did others, just as due diligence - the old 'we were thinking if Vlad comes available we might be willing to part with prospect x' type stuff to test the waters. Thus the Jays have an idea of what other teams will give up, and felt it wasn't going to be enough. A Vlad deal would be seen as gaining 3-6 WAR for 1 year right now. Mid-season it would be adding up to 3 wins in 1/2 a season if he is doing well and for a contender on the edge that could be extremely valuable. Those marginal wins when you are close could mean the difference between October baseball and nothing - the spread between a fanbase that will buy season tickets or who will abandon you quickly.

Now, if they finish 2025 with Vlad on the roster (due to contending or him flopping) then the negotiating begins anew and we hear non-stop doomsday stuff from the usual suspects (Wilner can't even post a positive 'first game of spring' post without shots now for example). If he signs we'll hear non-stop about how the Jays spent too much and could've saved money had they signed him to a mystical contract a few years ago, or gave in to whatever he demanded this past winter (over $500 mil it seems). I noticed he is suspiciously absent from or minimized in the Jays promotions this spring so far after being all over them the past few years. Santander is showing up a lot. Guess it just makes sense - Santander is here for a few years at least.

Looking for Jays ads I hit this from 1992. The 1993 ones I found were boring or fan made. But for fan made - gotta love this one covering 1977-2019 ending with Vlad's spring home run. Ah the dreams we had back then that might end this season. Didn't find a 2020-2023 summary with the 3 wild card reaching moments, but did find 2020, while not playing in 2022, and again in 2023. Ick, those last 2 being off field wins might be part of why they just don't sit well with fans too. Nothing as fun as watching them win a game to clinch. Hopefully those help get us energized and hopeful for a good 2025. Time for more playoff baseball, hopefully with a few wins and the first appearance in a World Series by the Jays since 1993.

FYI: Longer WS appearance droughts - Seattle (never there), Pittsburgh 1979, Milwaukee 1982, Baltimore 1983, A's 1990, Reds 1990, Twins 1991. Longer waits for a WS title - never won Mariners, Brewers, Padres, Rockies, Rays; 1948 Cleveland, 1979 Pittsburgh, 1983 O's, 1984 Tigers, 1986 Mets, 1989 A's, 1990 Reds, 1991 Twins. Everyone else has won at least once in the 2000's. So things could be a LOT worse. Longest out of the playoffs - Angels '14, Pirates '15, Rockies '18, Washington '19, Cubs/Reds/A's '20, Both Sox & Giants '21, Seattle/St Louis '22 - all longer than the Jays who were there in '23. Gotta really suck being a Pirates fan - long playoff draught, long WS draught - since 1992 they made the playoffs only 3 times, all in a row 2013-2015 with the only playoff series win being a WC single game in '13 and that is it since Barry Bonds left them to play in SF after 1992. Despite playing in a super-weak division too (NL Central). In fact, those 3 WC's are the only times they finished a season within 10 of the division lead outside of 1997 during that stretch (sub 500 that year, but like I said, weak division won by Houston with 84 wins that year) - 8 times they were 30+ out of 1st, 4 times 100+ losses. For comparison, the Jays last time losing 100 was 1979, 4 times 30+ out of 1st since the WS wins (1995, 2004, 2018, 2019). Phew, like I said, could be a lot worse, Pittsburgh despite all that has just the 16th best farm too (peaked recently at #3 in 2022 but did nothing with it). Jays 23rd, but haven't drafted below the Pirates often in recent years (peaked at #4 in '2021 then used it to get 2 playoff appearances before it was empty). Jays consolidated top 10 in 1991 were Nate Pearson, Austin Martin, Jordan Groshans, Alejandro Kirk, Simeon Woods Richardson, Orelvis Martinez, Alek Manoah, Miguel Hiraldo, Gabriel Moreno, Adam Kloffenstein, CJ Van Eyk - quite a few flops there. Kirk, Moreno, and Manoah had success. Orelvis Martinez might still. SMR looked decent last year (1.8 fWAR for Minnesota), Martin was negative WAR in his first call up (-0.2 in 93 games), Groshans has bounced around a bit, Miguel Hiraldo is a minor league FA (unsigned), Adam Kloffenstein got 1 IP for St Louis in '24 but hasn't looked good in the minors and has come back, CJ Van Eyk has yet to get to AAA.

A YouTube personality had some reasonable proposals a month ago based on baseball values and current trade references:

Vlad to ARZ for PUK, 2B Crisantes (#89) and Slade Caldwell

Vlad to CIN for Encarnacion Strand, C Alfredo Duno (#72) and low prospect

Vlad to NYM for SS Ronny Mauricio (former top 100), 1B/OF Ryan Clifford, RPTyler Megill and P Blade Tidwell

Vlad to BOS for Yoshida, 2B Kristian Campbell (#24), Bernandino, Grissom

Vlad to Det for 2B Jace Jung (#71), Torkelson and P Ty Madden

Vlad to SEA for Castillo, SS Cole Young (#50) and comp pick

Vlad to LAA for Taylor Ward, LHP Sam Aldegheri (#93)and RHP George Klassen

Vlad to TEX for Adolis Garcia, SP Alejandro Rosario (#83) and Cody Bradford

Vlad to SF for Marco Luciano, Lamont Wade, SP Carson Whisenhunt and RP Ryan Walker

Rankings are from BA and MLB and order of players (in return) is by dollar value. All proposals were done in January.

Link:

https://youtu.be/Jsg7ja80x1A?feature=shared

This guys values and estimates that he sources have proven more accurate than one may think.

I recently talked to a couple of acquaintances who follow the Blue Jays (although perhaps not as obsessively as Bauxites do). They both expressed real frustration with the front office for failing to work out an extension with Vladdy. I wonder if that is the dominant sentiment among casual fans.

The FO is going to be in an unenviable spot if the team fails to make the postseason (or fails to win a postseason game) and Vladdy ends up signing with another team.