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Pitchers and catchers reported yesterday. Old thread overloaded, time for a new one.

Lots of articles from sports reporters enjoying the sun in Florida while the rest of us prepare for a massive blizzard on Sunday.

February 18th is the big day when full squad workouts begin and Vlad's deadline hits. That is Tuesday, so not long left in that drama - then a pause on it until October or November if we are lucky and the Jays have a great season. Feb 22nd is the first spring game vs the Yankees in Dunedin.

Early storylines include Wagner learning 1B to backup Vlad, Gosuke Katoh is back in a minor league operations role (advance scouting), Schneider sees Clement, Wagner, Orelvis, and Vlad all getting 3B time - says something that he didn't mention Barger. Lots of stories like this at Sportsnet right now. Hey, those reporters gotta do something to earn that warm weather break.

At this point I'd be surprised if any trades or free agent signings happen unless someone else is in a desperate mood and the Jays say 'sure, we'll do that'. IE: a total steal of a deal.
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pooks137 - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 01:21 AM EST (#456709) #
With the departures of Cavan Biggio, Daniel Vogelbach and Justin Turner last year along with the offseason trade of Spencer Horwitz and Pete Alonso's agent using the Jays as leverage to re-sign with the Mets, I had completely overlooked that the Jays don't really have anyone with experience on their resume to back up Vlad at 1B.

Will Wagner actually makes a lot of sense by default with about 500 innings there in the minors. Joey Loperfido has a similar number of minor league innings, but isn't guaranteed to make the roster.

Santander really has no MLB or minor league 1B experience.

Guys like Clement, Barger and Schneider have less than a dozen games experience as an emergency fill-in.

Obviously, the Jays have much bigger problems if Vlad can't start at 1B for any period of time.

But the Jays do need at least a competent body on the roster to cover 1B for the 30 or so games where Vlad DHs.

Outside of Wagner, who is by no means a sure thing, there aren't that many obvious choices.

It seems unlikely the FO and Schneider would ask a brand new FA in Santander to learn the position in Year 1.

Perhaps George Springer makes sense as a candidate to be asked to learn a new position if for some reason Vlad goes down for a time and Springer's D slips but his bat rebounds or hovers around league average.
mendocino - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 03:32 AM EST (#456710) #
Billy Beane: We want you to play 1st base for the Oakland A's.
Scott Hatteberg: OK, well, I've only ever played catcher.
Billy Beane: Scott, you're not a catcher any more. If you were our call wouldn't be the only one you got when your contract expired.
Scott Hatteberg: Yeah, hey, listen, no I, I appreciate it.
Billy Beane: You're welcome.
Scott Hatteberg: But the thing, thing is is that...
Billy Beane: You don't know how to play 1st base. Scott...
Scott Hatteberg: That's right.
Billy Beane: It's not that hard, Scott. Tell him Wash.
Ron Washington: It's incredibly hard.
Billy Beane: Hey, anything worth doing is. And we're gonna teach you.
Michael - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 04:59 AM EST (#456711) #
The timing and delivery of "It's incredibly hard" in Moneyball is amazingly good. A great scene in a great movie. Even non-baseball fans can appreciate the movie. And a true story (even if it did under-highlight the starting pitching of the As).
Glevin - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 08:20 AM EST (#456712) #
Santander can play 1B. Wagner likely can as well. Not something I'm worried about.
pooks137 - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 09:00 AM EST (#456713) #
Santander has 6 career starts and 73 career innings at 1B (the majority of them recent in 2023) along with 9 career minor league starts as a 21 y/o in 2016 in A+ Lynchburg when he was in the Cleveland org.

So he has some major league 1B experience recently, but is certainly not "experienced" at the position.

And again, I would suspect that the Jays would treat their new FA prize with kid gloves and not ask him to play out of position in Year 1.

I'm a little surprised that 2024 trade deadline acquisitions Will Wagner & Joey Loperfido are probably 2 and 3 on the 1B depth chart now that Horwitz is gone.

I suppose I took it for granted for years that a declining Biggio was on the roster to cover 1B on the rare days when Vlad couldn't.
pooks137 - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 09:18 AM EST (#456714) #
Non-Vlad 1B defense

2024: Horwitz (29 starts, 300 innings), Turner (12 starts, 86 innings), Biggio (0 starts, 5 games, 8 innings), De Los Santos 3.1 innings, Wagner 3 innings.

So Biggio played a lot less 1B defense in 2024 than I would've guessed. And everyone else that filled in except Wagner is gone. Vogelbach never picked up a glove.

2023: Belt (28 starts, 242 innings), Biggio (10 starts, 107 innings), Horwitz (4 starts, 37 innings)

This was more akin to Biggio filling in that I recall. Again, all candidates now out of the org.

2022: Biggio (32 starts, 262 innings), 27 or less innings for Gurriel Jr, Katoh, Whit Merrifield and Zach Collins.

So for the first time in a few years, the Jays haven't brought a backup 1B type vet to camp. Biggio's "supersub" ability to cover 30 games is gone. And Horwitz was traded as a man without a position.

It seems in a typical year, there's roughly 300-400 defensive 1B innings needed to be covered if Vlad is healthy.
soupman - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 11:09 AM EST (#456715) #
This front office has people that work on the weekend?

Glevin - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 11:24 AM EST (#456716) #
Santander can play 1B. He even mentioned it in his introductory press conference that he'd play there if he needed. 1B is not like other positions where you'd worry about tons of game experience. He played 12 games there in 2023. He'd be fine at 1B. Wagner is going to play 1B in spring as well. Having 3 guys on major league roster able to play 1B is fine.
pooks137 - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 11:34 AM EST (#456717) #
Santander can play 1B. He even mentioned it in his introductory press conference that he'd play there if he needed. 1B is not like other positions where you'd worry about tons of game experience.

I didn't know that Santander said that.

There’s still a difference though between talking points at a press conference and doing it IRL. 12 games over the last 8 years isn't much experience. And for someone who isn't considered a good defender to begin with.

It's interesting that "defense at 1B doesn't matter" has persisted unchanged for so long, dating at least back decades to the Billy Beane/Scott Hatteberg scene.

Even with the analytics revolution, it's still a given that you can simply throw a glove at the worst athlete/best remaining bat on your team and ask him to perform at a MLB level for a position that touches the ball second most after your catcher.

scottt - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 12:37 PM EST (#456718) #
I am still not convinced that teams are willing to pay Guerrero over 400M to play at 1B.
A good part of his value to the Jays is being the face of the franchise.
That doesn't hold true elsewhere where they already have established guys in that role.

We'll see eventually.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 01:51 PM EST (#456719) #
It's not difficult to find a AAAA/fringe MLB 1B that can be acquired for relatively cheap in the event of an emergency.

Also, the org will likely have Rainer Nunez, Riley Tirotta, Damiano Palmegiani, and Alan Roden (he played OF/1B in college) at AAA.

If Martinez can't hack it at 3B (again) then he's also a more long-term option. Peyton Williams will be at AA and may not need a lot of time there (but could also be held up by the aforementioned depth at AAA).

I do think 1B is ok especially with clubs moving away from the notion that you need a slugging power-hitter at 1B.
pooks137 - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 02:17 PM EST (#456720) #
Thanks for the minor league depth chart outlook Marc.

I don't think the lack of a true backup 1B is a big deal overall.

But I still find it surprising that Will Wagner seems to be the man by default (and likely helps his chances of making the 26-man).

26-man roster construction has many layers, some being that your roster flexibility requires that competent backups that can cover CF, SS and 1B (as well as an arm strong enough to backup 3rd) need to exist at all times through various permutations of the 13 position players on the docket.
John Northey - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 08:06 PM EST (#456721) #
One can see why we have so much of an interesting team when it comes to positional flexibility. Looking at the 40 man.
  • C: Kirk, Heineman, Varsho is an emergency guy
  • 1B: Vlad, mix match of whoever
  • 2B: Giménez, Clement, Martinez, Jimenez, Wagner, Schneider, probably more
  • SS: Bo, Clement, Jimenez, not sure who goes next
  • 3B: Clement, Wagner, Martinez, Schneider, Barger, Vlad
  • CF: Varsho, Lukes, Clase, Springer, Berroa, Loperfido
  • OF: Springer, Santander, Varsho, Lukes, Schneider, Barger, Loperfido, Clase, Berroa, many more not on 40 man (Roden likely to get a shot this year)
Likely roster: Kirk-Vlad-Gimenez-Bo-Clement-Springer-Santander-Lukes-Wagner-Heineman then 2 slots left for Lukes I suspect, and a RH to split DH with Wagner - Orelvis could work, as could Schneider. Wouldn't shock me if the Jays grab a RH DH/OF off the waiver wire this spring.
Glevin - Saturday, February 15 2025 @ 11:12 PM EST (#456722) #
I think Wagner is #2 at 2B. If Gimenez gets hurt, who plays 2B? Wagner. Orelvis not close here I don't think at this point. I think Loperfido is most likely #2 in CF right now as well. (I think if Jays were playing tomorrow, Loperfido would be starting in CF). There are definitely some real battles in spring this year. A bunch of guys could find themselves with playing time or played down the depth chart with a hot/cold spring (Barger, Roden, Schneider, Orelvis, etc...)
Petey Baseball - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 08:27 AM EST (#456723) #
This was alluded to by Atkins in his comments Wednesday, and many Bauxites before have expressed similar viewpoints.

Jays were 28-26 last season in July and August. This is relevant because it's the period of time from where the most DNA is present on this years team starting from Day 1.

In April, May and June, the team gave a ton of at bats to an over the hill Justin Turner, two guys now retired (Kiermaier, Vogelbach), a guy clearly playing injured (Bichette) and a guy that belongs in AAA (Schneider). September you throw out, the team was clearly auditioning depth pieces and resting guys.

You add in the additions they've made and decent health, and it's hard not to be optimistic.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 08:35 AM EST (#456724) #
I mention Bichette playing hurt because I watched him play two games close up in June in Detroit. At the time, I was convinced his poor play and lack of hustle/energy was due to contractual/personal issues. Events since then has me more in the "he was probably hurt" category.
pooks137 - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 10:05 AM EST (#456725) #
In April, May and June, the team gave a ton of at bats to an over the hill Justin Turner, two guys now retired (Kiermaier, Vogelbach), a guy clearly playing injured (Bichette) and a guy that belongs in AAA (Schneider). September you throw out, the team was clearly auditioning depth pieces and resting guys.

It seems odd to me to include July 2024 data that is sullied by stats from Turner, Kiermaier, Garcia, Kikuchi, Richards and completely omits new arrivals like Loperfido, Wagner, Jimenez, Lukes, etc.

I think the Aug 1st and onwards garbage time team is a better representative sample based on personnel alone. But the team played so poorly to close out the season in September that I understand why one would pretend it didn’t happen.

Petey Baseball - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 10:40 AM EST (#456726) #
I just took the best two month stretch they played all season without an arbitrary starting or end point and looked at who got most of the playing time and made my statement. Atkins repeated it during his press time Thursday.
John Northey - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 12:25 PM EST (#456727) #
Going by when they had the closest to what will be here in 2025 you get August with a 16-12 record, 131 for, 100 against. August started with 6 vs the Yanks/O's (3-3), then weak teams A's/Angels/Cubs/Reds/Angels - 10-6, then meh Boston & Minny to end the month (3-3). Basically they beat up on the weak teams and held their own vs everyone else. Random lineup Aug 9: Springer-Varsho-Vlad-Horwitz-Kirk-Clement-Loperfido-Schneider-Jimenez, or the 19th Springer-Varsho-Vlad-Horwitz-Kirk-Wagner-Clement-Loperfido-Barger with Schneider PH for Loperfido.

That team was a lot closer to what we'll see now except no Horwitz, add in Santander. Bo for Jimenez, Gimenez for Loperfido (not exact, but I'm shifting Wagner/Schneider to DH for this exercise). Also instead of Yariel Rodríguez we have Max Scherzer starting in the 5 hole, and the pen has Hoffman-Garcia-Sandlin-Yariel (plus Swanson-Green-Little-Nance both in 24 and 25) vs Burr-Cabrera-Yarborough-Pop (Pop still around as is Burr - they are likely to get call-ups when needed, doubt Pop will be taken by anyone if demoted). Burr is on his last option, Pop out of them, also on 40 man is last option Nick Robertson-Josh Walker and 2 options Easton Lucas. Little has 2 options, 3 for Sandlin, none for everyone else.

I'd say those changes are all upgrades. Plus, of course, many of the guys upgraded on are still around but will be in AAA (Loperfido, Jimenez) or on the bench/pen (Rodriguez). It'll be fun to see how it all falls out, who gets hurt, who stays healthy, who has a breakout, who flops. Spring is the time of wonder and fun - every team, even the White Sox, can dream big (in their case it is to lose less than 100).
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 12:38 PM EST (#456728) #
Whats the update on Vlad (non)extension from Carlos Gomez?
greenfrog - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 01:20 PM EST (#456729) #
Speculative, but I really don’t think an extension is happening. Best guess is the two sides are simply too far apart when it comes to dollars. If Vladdy can stay healthy and produce at a high level in 2025, he’s going to get paid — a lot — in the off-season. And he knows that.
scottt - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 03:13 PM EST (#456730) #
To me, it feels like a Donaldson/Encarnation situation.
Guerrero is asking for more than what the team is offering but other teams might not even match that.
Most high payrolls teams have already plans for 1B and/or DH and the other teams are not spending 40M/year on a first baseman.
In that context, it's probably best to wait in the offseason to extend him.
Heck, AA wasn't even interested in keeping Freeman.
Vlad needs a 6 WAR season to stay in the 40M/per year discussion.

greenfrog - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 03:50 PM EST (#456731) #
It’s hard to predict what Vladdy will garner in free agency. It’s all about supply and demand. Lots of commentators thought Soto (a great hitter and mediocre fielder) would receive around $500-600m. He got $765m. Being a young free agent makes a huge difference. Vladdy will be 26 next season. Freeman was 32 in his first season with the Dodgers.

If Vladdy stays healthy in 2025 and has a 7-8 WAR season, he could get a monster contract. If he experiences some knee / wrist / back issues and has a 2-4 WAR season? Different story.
John Northey - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 03:55 PM EST (#456732) #
Agreed scottt - it is easy to get caught up in the hype but realistically Vlad is a DH/1B which is far more limited than a DH/P and a RF/DH. But for 2025/26 offseason you'll have the Yankees weak at 1B (Paul Goldschmidt there now, but on a 1 year deal), Mets have Alonso ($24 mil player option for '26), Dodgers have Freeman/Ohtani for 1B/DH, Giants LaMonte Wade Jr. (free agent post '25), Angels a sub 1 WAR guy in Nolan Schanuel. Any of those are possible - Angels are the #1 risk for the Jays as that is where Sr went post-Expos. The Mets could go silly with $$ if they want. Giants have been in the Jays category of chasing big names past 2 winters but coming up short despite being on the coast (which should be a plus).

If Vlad had a 150+ OPS+ season then he should find the $400-$500 mil deal he wants. If he is in the 130's or lower probably not. Emotionally I'd love the Jays to sign him, but if I was the GM I'd probably stick sub $400 mil unless ownership said 'do it or else'.
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 04:04 PM EST (#456733) #
I think Vlad overvalues himself and will sign an onerous contract (for the team).

I think he will get paid what he wants and more.

It's a rare instance where the Blue Jays and Vlad, imho are both going to be right.

At The Letters podcast had a lengthy conversation of comparable players to Vlad and it's a decent listen. In the end the two hosts suggest independently a 36 and 41 million annual salary over 10 years, both of which would put the contract in top 2 or 3 ever contracts after including the 28.5 arb year this year.
uglyone - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 04:32 PM EST (#456734) #
AtGPTkins speaks:

BlueJaysLifer - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 05:05 PM EST (#456735) #
But yet they will pay Soto $800M to play RF poorly.
I think given the Red Sox, Mets, Angels and Yankees will need a 1B for the 26 season, his floor is $400M. Also they aren’t just paying him to be a 1B, they are paying him to be a young generational bat. Guys with Vlad’s hitting profile don’t come available on the market. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t land $400.
SK in NJ - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 05:43 PM EST (#456736) #
Teams are smarter nowadays. I think Vladdy will get his money regardless, but he's not going to be come close to Soto money. In Soto's first 7 seasons, his LOWEST wRC+ in a single season was 143. He's a historically great hitter. If Vladdy is using him as a comparable, then I don't think a deal gets done by tomorrow. I don't think any team will value him like that. The consistency just hasn't been there, and then there's the defense, base running, and conditioning aspect to factor in. I think the FO is aware that any Vladdy extension is not going to make baseball sense. It's going to be driven a lot by emotion. They have to figure out a sweet spot where they concede some money/term without going so far above their own internal valuations. Whether they have the interest in doing that is the question.

As I said before, if Vladdy's ask begins with a 4, then I think there's a chance something gets done. If it starts with a 5 or more, then prepare for just one more season.
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 05:56 PM EST (#456737) #
Dude, of course 400 is going to be the floor. I'm thinking he wants closer to 500.

The Jays didn't offer 800 million to Soto...

If Vlad is a generational talent then what are Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and others who routinely put up 6-7 WAR+ seasons every year??? Is Vlad a "lower generational" player? His numbers when viewed as a whole do not stack up against those others. He's more like Harper through the first 6 years of his career except he can't run or really field and plays 1B.

greenfrog - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 06:18 PM EST (#456738) #
It’s too early to make strong predictions about Vladdy’s next contract because we’re missing some key data, namely, his 2025 performance. If he stays healthy and posts massive numbers, some team will pay him a ton of money because he’ll be viewed as a consistent high performer (who had some ups and downs earlier in his career). His performance this year — good, bad or ugly — will shape the narrative and his market in the off-season.
scottt - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 06:29 PM EST (#456739) #
Soto just produced a 7.9 WAR season playing the outfield poorly.
Soto has averaged 6.3 WAR and Vlad 4.3.
That's a huge difference.
Excess value is exponential. 2 WAR doesn't get you the average salary.

And then you project any way you like.
Vlad doesn't look like someone who will rake at 40.



greenfrog - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 06:32 PM EST (#456740) #
This will be a challenge season — Vladdy is choosing to bet on himself to have a big season and secure a huge new contract. He’s betting *against* the Atkins/Shapiro trademark caution (that factors in caveats and concerns and was perhaps reflected in Shapiro’s end-of-year presser comments about Vladdy).
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 16 2025 @ 07:19 PM EST (#456741) #
I think your 6:18pm post is a wise one and nicely illustrates the cause/source of the chasm.
Marc Hulet - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 09:34 AM EST (#456742) #
I find it very curious that Keegan Matheson, Shi Davidi, and Ben Nicolson-Smith all tweeted within 18 minutes of each other just now saying the exact same thing about the Vladdy deadline/countdown.

Someone is controlling the message in these final hours...
Petey Baseball - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 09:57 AM EST (#456743) #
I'm not sure Mark. It's 9am on a Monday morning in Spring Training and that's the top story by far. They're the three main reporters covering the Jays. I doubt the Jays would want to stir things up by directing journalists what to say.

I don't think I've commented much on here about Vlad's contract over the years. I've always been in favor of Rogers spending oodles of money to get this team over the top. The fact is, Shapiro and Atkins are gone if this team doesn't make the playoffs this year, or even if they make it and flop like they have the only two times they have under this regime. I doubt Rogers is going to authorize a massive deal based on Vlad's inconsistent track record (two years elite, one year good and two years meh) to be handed out by a lame duck front office.
Petey Baseball - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 10:01 AM EST (#456744) #
On the flip side, if Vlad has another huge year and the Jays make a run to the ALCS and have a year of sellouts and playoff buzz, and Rogers runs the numbers in November then there's more of a chance. Like greenfrog said, and Arden and Ben talked about in their podcasts it all depends what happens this year. A long term contract won't happen unless something like what I described above happens.
uglyone - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 10:20 AM EST (#456745) #
Fangraphs prospect ranks:

* #66 Bloss
* #82 Nimmala
* #102 Tiedemann


SK in NJ - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 10:27 AM EST (#456746) #
There are advantages to waiting. They get to see if Vladdy can have back to back great seasons for the first time in his career (closest was 2021-22 where he was great and then very good). It’s a risk in the sense that once he’s on the open market then other teams can outbid the Jays but if Rogers was sincere in their massive attempts at Ohtani and Soto (no reason to believe they weren’t) then they could easily do the same with Vladdy, and it’s a rare situation where if the best offers are close then the Jays could have the advantage.

One important issue here is that Shapiro is also on the last year of his contract. He has no reason to make what he feels is a massive overpay just as much as Vladdy as no incentive to sign now before testing the market. Unless Shapiro and Atkins feel that signing Vladdy helps their job security (assuming they are in danger of losing their jobs in the first place) then ultimately it may come down to Rogers.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 11:10 AM EST (#456747) #
I'm surprised Bloss is so high and Yeasavage isn't in their top 100.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 11:13 AM EST (#456748) #
"Keegan Matheson, Shi Davidi, and Ben Nicolson-Smith"

After reading their "latest" articles I conclude that they have a quota to hit for content. Reminds me when I was in high school and had to submit an essay with a specified word count. There is absolutely nothing to gain for me from these articles that I can't learn in seconds from this board instead. Nothing that is unless you count losing time as a gain.
johnny was - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 11:19 AM EST (#456749) #
I'm quite surprised there hasn't been a Rogers intervention yet on Vladdy as there was with V-Dub back in the Ricciardi era. That extension was highly questionable at the time, but AA did at least wiggle out of it by duping LAA to trade for him.

Beyond Vlad, Kyle Tucker, and maybe Bo, the free agent class of hitters next winter is so weak there doesn't appear to be any reasonable target who might replace "bad" Vlad production from '22 and '23 even. If they don't overpay him, an already poor offense will crater.
jerjapan - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 11:57 AM EST (#456750) #
There is such a voracious appetite for clickbait, I can't really fault guys like Dividi for prioritizing output over quality.  That's how you have to play the game nowadays. So great to have baseball back, regardless of our media-drenched environment. 

If I squint, I can see a way enough things break right for this team / wrong enough for others that we make the playoffs and even win a series or two.
It's a longshot, but in that case, I could see Vlad resigning after the season, as you guys have pointed out.   A lot depends on the vibes of a currently-angry fan base, and Rogers might put more weight on that than his management team. 

It feels like the two sides just have different valuations.  I get it, given Vlad's position and inconsistencies season-to-season.  Conditioning.  Peak vs. floor.  I think it unlikely that our conservative FO takes a risk like overpaying a guy like Vlad, but they have been willing to be more aggressive this offseason. 

It sure does feel like 'now or never' for Shapiro and Atkins. 

To me, it's not the end of the world in we keep Vlad for a meaningful run and then lose him to FA. 

If there is no contract, and we are not competitive at the deadline, obviously we trade Vlad and the rest of the veteran pending FAs.  We could get a real prospect haul, in that scenario. It's the mushy middle that I think we all fear. 

And to be clear, I hope we re-sign Vladdy! 

Poor Amir Garret doesn't seem to warrant much notice, but I like it as a depth move. 
John Northey - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 12:41 PM EST (#456751) #
It is a challenge - Vlad at $400 mil for 10+ is probably more than he is worth in a baseball sense, being limited to 1B with just 2 'wow' seasons under his belt. Losing him would be a PR hit. However, as I've said many times, losing a star has never hurt this club. Delgado lost - team went from last to 500 and attendance grew. Halladay lost - team had a 1 year drop then climbed again. The Jays made the playoffs far more often without Delgado or Halladay than with them (1 time with them - Delgado's first call-up season of 2 games). MLB is not the NBA where one star can change a good team to a champion (see Raptors 18/19 with Kawhi Leonard vs the year before or after - a title vs twice out in round 2, then shortly after moved out of the playoffs - just in them twice since Kawhi left).

Like everyone else I'd hate to see Vlad and Bo go next winter. But if it does happen I'm not going to be doom and gloom as one never knows what could show up next here. Do the Jays chase Kyle Tucker? Do they find a way to keep Vlad or Bo? It'll be interesting to see. #1 though is to have a strong 2025 or all 3 will have no interest in being here. Few quality players want to be on a loser - 2024 could be a one off, or it could be the going forward position for the Jays. I hope it was a one off.
Petey Baseball - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 12:42 PM EST (#456752) #
I agree jerjapan. The fan base has been swept into a frenzy about how this franchise is doomed if Vlad doesn't re-sign.
If this year we get a playoff berth and a decent run, with a big season from Vlad and some excitement around here, it will have been worth it.
uglyone - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 12:53 PM EST (#456754) #
i think if vladdy and bo leave you can legit say goodbye to attracting any FA at all (even 2nd/3rd tier guys like Santander), so the current just ok team will almost certainly get worse, and older, and still be very expensive.

and we don't have a good system to look forward to.

so the situation is pretty dire if we don't sign at least vladdy.

ISLAND BOY - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 01:02 PM EST (#456755) #
My head says it's not a good idea to overpay Vlad too much in case he craters in his post age 30 years, or even doesn't match last year's stats going forward.

My heart says the Jays should make every effort to sign their homegrown superstar since it's apparent other high-profile players don't want to come here in free agency. If Atkins fails to sign Vlad and he eventually leaves in free agency, then Atkins will become the most hated Jay's GM ever, no matter how good his intentions were in regard to team payroll.
John Northey - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 01:09 PM EST (#456756) #
Amir Garret - the type of move a few weeks ago we'd probably have dug into but now is just 'so what' as we are in the 'lets go' stage of the offseason with games coming soon. Entering his age 33 season, he is a LH reliever who in '17 started 14 games but hasn't started one since (well 2 in AAA in '24 but those were 2 and 3 inning outings so just opener stuff). 11.5 K/9 in AAA last year was nice, but 4.3 BB/9 wasn't. Lots of bouncing from majors to minors lately, lifetime 10.5 K/9 in majors vs 5.3 BB/9. So very wild, but if he can get that under control he could be a very useful part. I suspect he'll be in AAA most of the year with a few games here and there for the Jays (when a reliever is hurt) - no options though so if called up you risk him on waivers to send back down, plus he has enough service time to refuse a demotion. I'd expect him to start off in Buffalo, then if needed will get a shot but only if the Jays feel he can stay up (ie: his wildness not an issue anymore).
SK in NJ - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 01:34 PM EST (#456757) #
The team's chances in 2026-beyond in a world without Vladdy would depend a lot on internal development this season. No one internally is going to be Vladdy anytime soon, and they aren't signing anyone who can match that ceiling aside from Tucker (which let's be honest isn't happening), so they need a committee of young players to collectively close that gap. It's going to be a big year for the farm system as well. Realistically, if they don't extend Vladdy then they are likely looking at a (hopefully brief) window of rebuilding/retooling, whether it's done by Shapiro or someone else. Although you could argue that they could be staring down that road even if they do extend him.
bpoz - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 02:07 PM EST (#456759) #
Minor league contract to Jacob Barnes.
Glevin - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 02:53 PM EST (#456761) #
Looks like Adam Macko has a meniscus tear in his knee and will need surgery. Much better than arm issue but Jays need their pitching prospects much healthier than last year (like 90% injury rate).
Ryan Day - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 03:45 PM EST (#456762) #
i think if vladdy and bo leave you can legit say goodbye to attracting any FA at all
This is overly pessimistic.  Willy Adames signed with San Francisco, who won 80 games, whose best player is 31-year-old Matt Chapman, and whose farm system was ranked 24th.Even Luis Severino signed with a team that lost 93 games and will be playing in a minor league stadium.  

Players will go where the money and the opportunity is. Even the Dodgers can't sign everyone, and no one's taking pay cuts to sign with supposedly model organizations like Baltimore or Tampa.
scottt - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 03:47 PM EST (#456763) #
Bad memories from 2021.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 04:21 PM EST (#456764) #
Maroudis
Barreira
Manoah
Tiedeman
Yeasavage
Bloss

I think its easy choice to predict three solid SP from this group in 2026. FO will have lots of payroll space to reallocate by then with or without Vlad and Bo. I think they will be competitive no matter what in 2026 and 2027.
lexomatic - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 05:54 PM EST (#456765) #
3/6 being solid is wildly optimistic
dalimon5 - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 06:26 PM EST (#456766) #
Manoah has already done it (talking about a solid SP to fill 3rd fourth of fifth slot).

Tiedeman is only held back by health.

Yeasavage or Bloss...one of them is a safe bet to "land."

That means you still have the two other high upside prospects along with whichever of Bloss/Yeasavage needs more developing.
John Northey - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 07:22 PM EST (#456768) #
For the future rotation post 2026 - after Gausman, Bassitt & Scherzer (post 25), maybe Berrios (opt out post 2026) we'll be down 3-4 of our current starters, but also having $77 mil freed up to pay for new guys on top of kids in house - I think it is reasonable to hope Manoah will be one of those 4 in 2027 (free agent after that), and for 1 (or more) of the kids to develop. That leaves tens of millions to pay for a quality replacement or two if needed. Plus guys drafted this year could be ready by '26 or '27 too. Not to mention Yariel Rodriguez is signed through 2028.
uglyone - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 08:07 PM EST (#456769) #
"Willy Adames signed with San Francisco,"...

....an historic franchise located in sunny california.
Joe - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 08:09 PM EST (#456770) #
San Francisco is definitely not in the sunny part of California, fwiw. It's frequently colder than Toronto at game time.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 09:22 PM EST (#456772) #
Possible breaking:

Looks like he might be signing. Yimi Garcia's brother tweeted "an entire coty will be happy in a few hours." He then deleted the post.

Marc Hulet - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 09:31 PM EST (#456773) #
He's trolling... he did something similar last night...
lexomatic - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 10:09 PM EST (#456774) #
Manoah has already done it (talking about a solid SP to fill 3rd fourth of fifth slot).

Tiedeman is only held back by health.

Yeasavage or Bloss...one of them is a safe bet to "land."

That means you still have the two other high upside prospects along with whichever of Bloss/Yeasavage needs more developing.

Manoah hasn't recovered to league average, much less the level from his first 2 seasons. He may have done it, but isn't a solid bet anymore.
Tiedman's health is a serious concern. He might never amount to anythingWhat has Yeasavage or Bloss done to make you think they'll even be league average in 26?2 high upseide prospects are still unknown.

Will all of them be bad? not likely. But thinking that half can be counted on in any way whatsoever is, again, wildly optimistic. There's nothing wrong with being opttimistic, I just doin't see any evidence to think it's a realistic belief.Like others have said, this isn't the end of the world. I just particularly take issue with the original statement, and your follow-up. There will potentially be budget for free agents - other pitchers could appear or be traded for. 
dalimon5 - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 10:33 PM EST (#456775) #
Let me turn it around to you. Out of those pitchers how many do you think will pitch in the rotation as a regular?
Michael - Monday, February 17 2025 @ 11:41 PM EST (#456776) #
I think you'd be happy if you had 2 of the 6 produce 25+ starts averaging 5+ IP/start with an ERA no worse than 0.50 runs above ML average (or better) in 2026 or 2027. My guess is the over/under for each year individually is probably something like 1.25. 1 is probably slightly less lucky than average, but 1 is probably much more likely than 2. 0 more likely than 3. Still 3, 4, or even 5 is in theory possible.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:01 AM EST (#456777) #
Vladdy presser at 8AM... Atkins and Shapiro meeting the media after. Probably not good if they're not all meeting together.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:20 AM EST (#456778) #
Around what time last night did you realize there wouldn't be a deal and how did you feel?"

Vlad: Deadline was 9. Toronto's last call was 10:30. Now im here and Toronto will have to compete with 29 other teams."

"Were you ever close?"

Vlad: "Obviously all along I had hope but especially in the end I didn't see the front office moving to my number. They tried but it wasn't the number I was looking for."

"Will this experience effect how you view this team?"

Vlad: "Listen, I want to be here. I want to be a Blue Jay."

"Are you willing to negotiate at all or is it a set number they had to meet?"

Vlad: "I had my number all along, I changed it a little bit."

"Were they ever close?"

Vlad: "No."

Vlad: "I know my value and i'm going to stick to it. The conversations went well (not contentious)."

Vlad: "to be honest i've been negotiating this contract for the past three years."

Vlad: "its great motivation for me right now to work harder than before."

If they came with an offer in 2 or 3 weeks...

Vlad: "to be honest I won't close the door if its a realistic offer."

What do you want from a team in free agency? What are you looking for?

Vlad: "winning team. That's what I'm going to be looking for. My dad played a long time and never won a world series. I want to win a world series and give it to my father."

greenfrog - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:20 AM EST (#456779) #
Vladdy says no deal reached.
adrianveidt - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:22 AM EST (#456780) #
I don't expect this roster to be competitive in that division, not without outspending the other teams by 25% or more, which Rogers obviously isn't willing to do, so I think trading Guerrero, and everyone else, makes more sense. The ESPN story mentions the organization is already planning a July trade.
adrianveidt - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:25 AM EST (#456781) #
A lot of X users are blaming Atkins for this, but he's a hatchet man for the owner. He just follows orders.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:33 AM EST (#456782) #
This org is absolutely not worth cheering for.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:40 AM EST (#456783) #
I need to know Vlad wasn't asking for 500 million before I abandon ship.
Mike D - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:49 AM EST (#456784) #
Who in the organization thought it would be an effective communications strategy to trot Vlad out first and have him break the news?!
Glevin - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:55 AM EST (#456785) #
Vlad says the Jays weren't close which to me means his ask was probably $500M+. I am OK with not resigning Vlad if his ask was that crazy but you need to trade him now. They won't. Instead they'll hang on to their outside chance at the playoffs and end up trading him for much less in July.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:20 AM EST (#456786) #
It's a tough spot. He's the offensive star and heart of the team.

If you trade him now, it's a lost year and wasted money on Scherzer, Santander, Hoffman, etc. And you'd never get another FA to sign...

Maybe they can trade him at the deadline if the club is out of it but even then, I doubt it.

But anything you get back won't fill his void now or in the future.

He saw the club offer huge money for Ohtani and Soto, and then come in likely much lower for him. He thinks he's in their realm and wants to be paid accordingly.

This will haunt the club the entire season and will be even worse if they stumble out of the gate with the toughest schedule of any AL East team...
Katie - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:24 AM EST (#456787) #
I am curious what Vlad's number was, but I have no confidence with this front office that it was unrealistically high.

There are reasons to think Vlad may not age well and he doesn't provide a lot of additional value elsewhere, but he also has the 10th highest adjusted OPS of any active player (minimum 3000 PAs so a couple of relevant players like Kyle Tucker are excluded).

Only two players in the Top 50 active players are 25 or younger. Soto and Vlad.

The Jays are now going to be stuck with the George Springer level of signing, wherein they sign are good players who are on the wrong side of 30 who they have to give an extra year during their decline phase to in order to get them to sign here.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:38 AM EST (#456788) #
Test
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:41 AM EST (#456789) #
Question: "Were you close?"

Vladdy: "No"

Atkins: "It just depends on how you define close, that's too big of a word to talk specifically about. I'm not comfortable talking about numbers."


When one word says more than a paragraph.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:12 AM EST (#456790) #
I'm wondering if he's taking advantage of off field impact. Example, "i think im worth 500 million, they are offering 400 million. My agent says any offer over 450 is fair but because Bo won't sign if I'm not here, because the FO will have a much harder job building a winner without me, i'm going to try to get them to do 500 or nothing."

Chuck - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:20 AM EST (#456791) #
When one word says more than a paragraph.

I can picture school-aged Atkins, writing a test, answering true/false questions with essays.

uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:28 AM EST (#456792) #
note the clearcut use of the past tense here. it's over.


"We were emotional. We did value the player deeply, and even went past our value because we cared so deeply about him and wanted to have him here"
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:33 AM EST (#456793) #
I haven't listened to Shapiro's presser yet but if the opportunity to resign Vlad is done then this FO screwed up with the Scherzer signing.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:34 AM EST (#456794) #
Atkins said: "What I can share is that we had a lot of dialogue, a lot of exchanges that felt constructive and productive. We learned a lot. We felt like they did as well. Went down to the wire."



we learned a lot, he says.

a very good learning experience all around.
85bluejay - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:36 AM EST (#456795) #
The sky is not falling.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:38 AM EST (#456796) #
ah there it is.

sweet, sweet "shared risk".

Mark Shapiro on Blue Jays not extending Guerrero: "When you go into a negotiation, each side has rationale for a number. In this case, we couldn't align on a common number that shared risk. Both sides take some on and a decision from both parties couldn't be found."
Chuck - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:44 AM EST (#456797) #
At this point I'd be surprised if any trades or free agent signings happen unless someone else is in a desperate mood

The Cubs could use a first baseman.

jerjapan - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:07 AM EST (#456798) #
I can't see the club trading Vladdy till the deadline.  All those FAs signed on to play with him, and while Shapiro and Atkins do a lot wrong in my book, they seem to operate in good faith with players.  Even practically speaking, they know that trading Vladdy would be terrible PR with spring training around the corner and would hurt at the box office. 

If there out of it at the deadline, they have a lot of assets to trade.  If they are in it, awesome. 

It's a prove-it season for everyone - Vladdy, betting on himself, Bo, don't call it a comeback, and, at last, for our beloved Front Office.   I hope they all kill it.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:09 AM EST (#456799) #
Besides Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and every terrible contract in baseball (not saying the first three are yet)...there is no contract that is not shared risk. Pretending that "shared risk" is an obstacle that should never be part of the equation is wishful thinking from you. Why on earth would anyone enter a trade, contract or agreement if it didn't benefit both sides?

A bit crazy for one to roll eyes and use "shared risk" as a terrible reason not to sign a contract if both sides do not concede. It's okay for the two parties not to agree on a contract. It's okay if the FO doesn't value him enough to invest in him and it's okay if Vlad doesn't trust the FO enough to sign. Just because you think Rogers can do X and should do X doesn't mean it's BS for them not to. It's not a government obligated to fix a broken bridge somewhere it's a personal decision on personal finances. Pretty simple.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:19 AM EST (#456800) #
I see the risk being far greater for Rogers than Guerrero. Losing out on maybe $8-10M a year for 10 years is not nearly as bad as getting stuck with a $40M a year sinkhole for 5 or 6 years.

Even if he gets hurt or underperforms, he's only 26 and could take a contract with opt-outs or a one-year deal and try again in a year. Or even something like Bregman and still re-enter free agency at an ok time.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:33 AM EST (#456801) #
Atkins said the contract offer would have been a record for the Blue Jays and made Vlad one of the top paid players in baseball. Here is top 10 paid players by payroll:

1. Juan Soto 51.000,000
2. Shohei Ohtani 46,081,476
3. Zack Wheeler 42,000,000
4. Aaron Judge 40,000,000
5. Jacob deGrom 37,000,000
6. Gerrit Cole 36,000,000
7. Mike Trout 35,541,667
8. Anthony Rendon 35,000,000
9. Francisco Lindor 34,100,000
10. Carlos Correa 33,333,333
11. Corbin Burnes 32,910,744
12. Corey Seager 32,500,000
13. Manny Machado 31,818,182
14. Alex Bregman 31,705,000
15. Blake Snell 31,306,185
34. George Springer 25,000,000

The rumour was they already offered 350,000,000 earlier this year. Atkins said they went past that last night.

I think they offered him more than Trout annually but less than Judge annually. They probably went overall contract value higher than anyone except Ohtani and Judge but did it by adding more years at sub 40,000,000 annual contract. Either that (they offered Vlad less than Judge annually) or they offered him 40,000,000 annually but for only 10 years which would bring him below Mike Trout for total contract dollars.


Here are top total salary contracts for the record:

1. Juan Soto 765,000,000
2. Shohei Ohtani 700,000,000
3. Mike Trout 426,000,000
4. Mookie Betts 365,000,000
5. Aaron Judge 360,000,000
6. Manny Machado 350,000,000
7. Francisco Lindor 341,000,000
8. Fernando Tatis Jr 340,000,000
9. Bryce Harper 330,000,000
10. Corey Seager 325,000,000
10. Giancarlo Stanton 325,000,000
10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto 325,000,000
13. Gerrit Cole 324,000,000
14. Rafael Dever 313,500,000
15. Trea Turner 300,000,000
16. Bobby Witt Jr 288,777,777


I think Vladdy wanted 40,000,000 annually and at least 450,000,000 total. That's a minimum 11 year deal at 40,000,000 to have Vlad through age 37 season. If I'm right then yeah...get Shapiro out of the front office. Conversely, if Vlad wanted 500,000,000 over 12 years or less then I'd side with this FO (41,000,000 over 12 years = (500,000,000) limit.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:35 AM EST (#456802) #
* Should read "They probably went overall contract value higher than anyone except SOTO, Ohtani and Judge"

not "They probably went overall contract value higher than anyone except Ohtani and Judge"
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:40 AM EST (#456803) #
I'm sifting through the fan/influencer thoughts on this whole thing and it's pretty one-sided. Everyone has a super-hate on for Atkins and Shapiro. Kinda funny.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 12:39 PM EST (#456804) #
Well, to be fair, it's going to suck being a Jay's fan this year. If the team starts out poorly for the first month or two, then it's another lost season and no fun to watch.

If the team and Guerrero do well, everybody will be saying, " Hey, we have a good team. Why didn't they give Vlad what he wanted.

If the team is mediocre, which I expect, everybody will be waiting for the shoe to drop on the Vlad trade which will be a black cloud hanging over the team until it happens.

Why in the heck wouldn't fans be angry? A fifth place finish in the division despite having a top 5 payroll, which is a result of not having any cheap, young stars because the minor league system isn't producing any. A minor league system that is ranked in the lower third of baseball. And now their favorite player is on the verge of leaving ? Yeah, we should be singing Atkins/Shapiro praises.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 12:55 PM EST (#456805) #
Hard to comment without knowing what the ask and the offer was, but I don't think the FO should be criticized for not caving to Vladdy's ask. Chances are it was at least $450M and more likely $500M or higher, and Vladdy simply doesn't have the track record or certainty when it comes to long-term performance to justify that. The FO had to be willing to make a deal that they were not comfortable with in order to get this done, and they weren't, so I don't think they should be bashed for that. Where they do deserve criticism is not trading Vladdy earlier. Chances are they knew they were far apart in talks months ago. They could have been proactive in trying to balance 2025 success with long-term success, but they decided to do the most predictable thing ever which is keep Vladdy for one more year and pray it leads to a playoff appearance. It worked so well in 2018.

With that said, I think having a FO that doesn't cave to fan/media pressure is a good thing. The issue with this FO is not having a clear direction.
JB21 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:06 PM EST (#456806) #
I believe the FO can be criticized for not getting ahead of this and signing Vlad to an extension a year ago.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:33 PM EST (#456808) #
A year ago his OPS+ was 116 and was a 3rd straight year of decline. I think, if anything, it would have been harder for them to come to a deal at that point.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:34 PM EST (#456809) #
no need to parse the precise thing that's blameworthy.

they've let this get to the worse possible place - they've paid $18m per year for him the past 4yrs and are now going to ditch him for the least possible value.

there were many other options they could have chosen over his time here and they chose to do nothing, and now are paying the price.
JB21 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:44 PM EST (#456810) #
That's my point. This FO has zero vision, they couldn't have possibly tried to capitalize on those facts, but instead they wait until his value is at an all time high.

Their conservativeness priced both a 116 OPS+ Vlad and a 167 OPS+ out of their 'value model'.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:45 PM EST (#456811) #
And maybe the guy most upset today is Santander.

Don't expect any other FAs to be making that same mistake in the forseeable future.
John Northey - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:45 PM EST (#456812) #
For all the doomsayers I respond...
  • Vernon Wells - 7 years $126 mil (6th richest at the time) - signed after a 5.8 fWAR season, a few years later he had a 3.7 which tricked the Angels into thinking he wasn't done. Phew. 6.6 fWAR from year signed until the end of his career. Ouch.
  • Carlos Delgado - 4 year record contract (per year) $17 mil per year, $68 mil total - Ash signed it, JPR hated it but was stuck with it. 16.0 fWAR over those 4 years so he earned it, but the Jays had a very limited budget and this was too much for it. So when it ran out they let him leave without even getting a draft pic. Post leaving he produced 6.1 fWAR so the Jays did the right thing letting him go it turned out (Marlins signed him 4/$52 mil)
  • Dave Stieb - renegotiated his contract pre-1991 to $3+ mil per for the 4 years left on his deal despite having him signed already for sub $2 mil. Nice to do but 1991 was his first arm blowout, then in '92 it fell off basically (1.5 fWAR over 3 years then took 4 off before his comeback). So money tossed away.
  • Stieb 1st big deal - 11 years $16.6 mil in 1985. He won the ERA title that year, then had one of his worst seasons in '86 (moved to the pen briefly) before moving back to one of the best by '88. This deal was a good one.
I know there are others in Jays history - but these ones came to mind immediately as big contracts for big stars already here (home grown). 2 flopped, 2 produced value for the dollar, but only 1 wasn't regretted by the team (Stieb's first deal). Big long term contracts are massive risks for teams. Even a shorter term high dollar one can be crippling (see Delgado early 00's) regardless of player performance. A $50 mil per year deal for Vlad I see as crippling potentially even if he hits well (4+ WAR per year value). At $30-$40 mil it could work, but by $50 mil he becomes a burden unless the club is willing to stay in the $300 mil+ range going forward (they aren't). Ohtani was a unique situation, Soto I wonder if he wasn't a serious chase but a 'lets give it a shot' situation regardless of what the media said (later we learned the Jays were well behind the Mets and Yankees final bids).

Vlad would need to be a 5-6 WAR player (at least) to justify a $50 mil per year salary. Only twice has he cracked 4 WAR, one more time 2+. To sign him for $400+ mil is the team taking on insane levels of risk imo. I'm glad they tried, but it was clear for awhile that Vlad saw himself as better than he is. Nothing wrong with that and I wish him the best, but this was almost as clear a case as the Bo situation where you want to let the player figure out their value the hard/risky way. Next winter will be interesting.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:50 PM EST (#456813) #
you act is if we can now spend that money on anything other than severe overpays going forward.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:51 PM EST (#456814) #
Carlos Baerga:

"What bothers me most is that Santander was promised Vladdy would stay in Toronto."
JB21 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:55 PM EST (#456815) #
I don't believe it.
JB21 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 01:57 PM EST (#456816) #
This is exactly what we're referring to. If you don't overpay, then you don't pay. Rogers has the money to make some mistakes, but if you're worried about making mistakes, then you're going to continually disappoint.
John Northey - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 02:04 PM EST (#456817) #
The question is how much of an overpay do you do? IMO a 10 year deal is a massive risk for the Jays even at $30 mil a year, let along at $50 mil. There is a reasonable overpay, say near $40 per, and an unreasonable one, near $50. If Vlad has a great year then the Jays might be more open to the $50 mil per he wants, but to give him that right now would be fiscally irresponsible. Also, see the other deals - the Jays treated Delgado like dirt, then Halladay like dirt near their ends here. Yet, they still were able to sign other free agents later on and build winners. Free agents go where the money is and where winning is. Yeah, Vlad helps the winning but will he for 10+ years or will that money be better spent elsewhere? Any player that signs trusting that a guy who isn't signed long term will be there long term is being foolish imo and any decent agent would warn him about that.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 02:05 PM EST (#456818) #
"What bothers me most is that Santander was promised Vladdy would stay in Toronto."

This would be a pretty dumb thing for the front office to promise, and also a pretty dumb thing for Santander to believe without also confirming it with Vlad.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 02:10 PM EST (#456819) #
At this point, we have to all hope for the Jays to have the most successful season possible. They need to make the playoffs, and probably win a round. In this scenario, I see a path to Vlad re-signing, and maybe Bo too.

If the year goes belly-up, we could be looking at the biggest deadline sell-off in history: Vlad, Bo, Springer, Clement, Scherzer, Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Green, Yimi, Hoffman. It's crazy to think about, and hopefully doesn't go down this road - I want the team to win!

Either way, it's going to be an interesting and unique year.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 02:51 PM EST (#456820) #
"Their conservativeness priced both a 116 OPS+ Vlad and a 167 OPS+ out of their 'value model'."

great point - it was a bad time to sign him when he struggled, and it's also a bad time to sign him when he's doing well.

it somehow was never, ever a good time to sign him.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 04:08 PM EST (#456821) #
If the Jays are out of it, then I think they'll operate similarly to how they've done in the past by just trading the impending free agents. That either allows the existing front office to try again in 2026, or a new front office to take over and do what they want with the players locked up from 2026-beyond (Gausman, Varsho, etc).

As of now, the Jays have $95M coming off the books after 2025 (Vlad, Bo, Scherzer, Bassitt, Green, and Swanson). They will have another $59M coming off the books after 2026 (Gausman, Springer, Garcia, and Straw), not counting Kirk and Varsho's arbitration numbers, and possibly Berrios if he opts out (which I don't expect him to). In other words, there's flexibility to either rebuild or retool, depending on how 2025 turns out. I would imagine if Shapiro stays on, then it's going to be a retool. It might be a retool regardless given how Rogers usually operates, but hiring a new FO for that will be tricky.
Katie - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 04:12 PM EST (#456822) #
John, you say Vlad has cracked 4 WAR twice like that's a bad thing. He's only had 4 full seasons in the majors, as I'm discounting Covid and a partial rookie season, and he's had over 3 WAR three times. (His numbers by Baseball-Reference WAR are even better.)

Over his age 22 to 25 seasons, he's averaged 4.1 WAR, and one of those seasons he was likely playing hurt, and he's just entering what should be his prime. We have no sense of what he wanted in terms of length or term, whether he was open to deferrals etc...

It's not unreasonable to roughly compare Vlad to Harper, who entered free agent three years removed from his monster season. He had averaged 3.3 WAR the previous three seasons (one of which was injury-shortened) and had almost all his value tied up in his bat. He got over $330 million and that was six years ago.

And, the Nationals won the World Series the next season behind the trio of Scherzer, Strasburg (his last healthy season) and Corbin and an offence led by Soto, Trea Turner and Rendon (his last fully healthy good season). The Nationals haven't won more than 71 games since.

I don't know if things will get that dire in Toronto, as injuries played a big role in why it got so bad for the Nationals, but that seems like the sort of rebuild the Jays are facing with a poor farm system and lacklustre major league team.
John Northey - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 04:16 PM EST (#456823) #
Vlad made it clear they have been talking for years. Odds are he has been asking a ton every time - he feels he is the best in baseball and wants to be paid like it. Yet he has 3 bad seasons (sub 2 WAR - 19/20/23), 1 good (22), and 2 great (21/24). Compare that to Soto - 5 years of 5+ WAR, a 3 at 19, and a 2.4 in '20 which is equal to a 5+ over a full season. Ohtani is another world entirely (just bat - 2 6+'s, a 4.9, 3.4, 2.7 and a 2.5 plus a 0.0 in '20, just arm - a 6.2, 4.1, 3.9, 1.3 and a -0.4 in '20). Outside of 2020 Ohtani has been insanely good. No point comparing him to Trout (multiple MVP's) or Judge (2 10+ WAR seasons plus an 8 and multiple 5's).

Yeah, Vlad is damn good. But no, he isn't a 'generational player' unless you think we have about 5-10 of those active at any one time.
Eephus - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 04:25 PM EST (#456824) #
Again, personally I will not stand for this "it's a good thing we let Carlos Delgado go in retrospect" take. It's been over twenty years now and I still haven't forgiven this particular wound. There's a lot more to what players like this provide to a franchise than just numerical value and WAR calculations, and I can say with absolute certainty lots of fans feel that same way about Vlad Jr. now potentially doing the same. 

It becomes harder and harder for Joe and Jane Average Fan to take your team at all seriously when you let stuff like this happen over and over again. 
JB21 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 04:39 PM EST (#456825) #
Preach! 161 OPS+ on his first non-Jays season

He made $19.7M in his final season, which was only an issue b/c the rest of the team made about the same (IIRC).
John Northey - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 04:42 PM EST (#456826) #
Agreed to some degree Eephus. But it does go both ways - you spend a fortune on one player, then he goes Vernon Wells (total collapse) and the team looks bad and gets poor results. If they had signed Delgado after 04 they'd have seen the same thing then. A Vlad deal would probably look OK for 4-6 years but after that odds are high it'd go south fast. Now, I don't know about you, but I plan to be around in 4-6 years and well beyond that. Plus this doesn't mean Vlad is gone for sure. Many things could happen between now and then. Vlad could have a bad year and only the Jays offer him a long term decent deal. A new GM/President could be in charge who go up to Vlad and make him a solid offer, Rogers ownership could decide they want to keep him and go around the management to get it done (ala how Soto delt directly with Cohen in NY). There are many other options too. In the end, the question becomes will Vlad give up anything to stay here or will he require full market value (IE: Jays need to be high bidder) to stay?

As to over and over again - last time this happened was, maybe, Encarnacion refusing the Jays offer (which ended up being the high one in the end), or the Jays dumping Halladay after years of frustration for him or letting Delgado go as a free agent when the team had a tight budget, or maybe trading away Wells after he finally had a good year. That is nothing on the scale of 'over and over again'. Guess you could argue not signing the biggest contract in MLB history 2 winters in a row due to the player going elsewhere is over and over but that fits many other clubs, or not resigning Semien to what appeared to be a too big contract at the time.
JB21 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 04:47 PM EST (#456827) #
You don't get hindsight, so if you're worried about overpaying, you'll end up losing the player.

The Jays have the pockets to have some of those 'sunk cost' contracts where they pay off quite well at the beginning but look horrendous at the end.
pooks137 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 05:03 PM EST (#456828) #
Look how fast the Springer deal went south.

He was hurt for half of his 2021 inaugural season where the Jays were supposed to be getting the surplus value.

It looks like the Jays will only get 1 healthy full productive season of George that was his 133 game, 4.1 bWAR season in 2022 (with 133 games arguably not a full year).

Then somehow George stayed healthy in 2023 (154 games) and 2024 (145 games) but the magic is completely gone (OPS+ of 102 and 92).

Fans were complaining about Springer leading off and getting playing time ahead of younger guys in Year 4 of 6 of the deal.

And this is with Springer to still contribute at the margins with some league average defense and baserunning.

10+ year deals are really hard for fans to extrapolate.

It will be hard to let Vlad go, but there's value to preserving future flexibility to use those uncommitted resources to address whatever annual need arises for the next 10-15 years.

Eephus - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 05:22 PM EST (#456829) #
I totally understand the perspective of it being too large a risk with this type of long mega-contract, since those can go south extremely quickly (I don't entirely agree with that viewpoint, at the end of the day this multi-billion dollar media company can afford it and the ability to market Vlad Jr. is also incredibly valuable... but I get the argument). But for every Rendon or Strasburg contract you can get a Votto or a Harper where it ends up looking okay for the majority of it (not a bargain but not a money filled sinkhole).

To me, the bigger issue is that 99.5 percent of Blue Jays fans are not going to see it that way and letting a beloved household name player like Vlad Jr. just walk away for basically nothing is pouring even more gasoline on the "fire these bozos they're ruining my team, why should I even bother spending my money on this anymore" narrative. There's a severe opportunity cost that this front office seems to either underestimate with Vlad Jr. or be completely uncaring about, thinking the fans will still come no matter what because the stadium is "cool and hip" now. I don't think that ace card is as strong as they think it is.

Here's hoping the 2025 team is actually good! (tugs collar nervously).
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 05:28 PM EST (#456830) #
we signed Springer at 31.

Vladdy is 26.

the irony is that not spending on Vlad will just end up with us spending more money on FAs in their 30s instead.
JB21 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 05:29 PM EST (#456831) #
Winning comes with risks.

Looking at the top contracts in the MLB (provided by another poster above, I added the teams)... sure there are some bad ones but those are mostly perennial winners on that list. NOT having (Bluejays) on the below list says enough.

1. Juan Soto 765,000,000 (Mets)
2. Shohei Ohtani 700,000,000 (Dodgers)
3. Mike Trout 426,000,000 (Angels)
4. Mookie Betts 365,000,000 (Dodgers)
5. Aaron Judge 360,000,000 (Yankees)
6. Manny Machado 350,000,000 (Padres)
7. Francisco Lindor 341,000,000 (Mets)
8. Fernando Tatis Jr 340,000,000 (Padres)
9. Bryce Harper 330,000,000 (Phillies)
10. Corey Seager 325,000,000 (Rangers)
10. Giancarlo Stanton 325,000,000 (Yankees)
10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto 325,000,000 (Dodgers)
13. Gerrit Cole 324,000,000 (Yankees)
14. Rafael Dever 313,500,000 (Red Sox)
15. Trea Turner 300,000,000 (Phillies)
16. Bobby Witt Jr 288,777,777 (Royals)
Rich - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 05:33 PM EST (#456832) #
Katie, I 100% agree with you.
Of course there's risk in paying Vlad but I think losing a home-grown star player who wants to be here for nothing is a much bigger risk.  The FO just continues to alienate the fans; I think we'll be talking about these negotiations many years down the road and not in a good way.
I think there are 4 possible ways this season unfolds and every one of them leaves the Jays worse off than if they had made a deal now:
  1. Vlad performs much worse than the contract he wanted - which means the team probably stinks.  The FO can take comfort they didn't overpay him but it will mean another bad year, further clouded by the cloud of his impending FA.
  2. Vlad has a good season then leaves for nothing.
  3. Vlad has a good season then re-signs for more than what he wants now.
  4. Vlad is dealt mid-season and the year is another waste - a rebuild begins.
I find it very hard to see any realistic winning scenario.
Jacob - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 05:40 PM EST (#456833) #
Interesting information offered up by Mark Shapiro to the press (starting at the 17:20 mark on today's episode of the Blair and Barker podcast) about the involvement of Rogers Communications CEO Tony Staffieri and owner Ed Rogers in thencontract discussions. Sounds like the entire management and ownership team passed on Vladdy's demands.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 05:43 PM EST (#456834) #
Best Jays Position Players age 21-25 (asterisk = started later than age 21)

clear top-5 imo

* McGriff* (23-25): 1664pa, 150wrc+, 14.3war, 5.6war/650
* Guerrero (21-25): 3026pa, 142wrc+, 16.7war, 3.6war/650
* Olerud (21-25): 2631pa, 136wrc+, 18.3war, 4.5war/650
* Bichette (21-25): 2328pa, 126wrc+, 15.9war, 4.4war/650
* Alomar (21-25): 3421pa, 121wrc+, 23.1war, 4.4war/650

next 5 imo

* Barfield (21-25): 1938pa, 119wrc+, 14.3war, 4.8war/650
* Wells* (22-25): 2078pa, 112wrc+, 9.6war, 3.0war/650
* Kirk* (22-25): 1563pa, 109wrc+, 10.2war, 4.2war/650
* Moseby (21-25): 2907pa, 108wrc+, 17.6war, 3.9war/650
* Fernandez* (22-25): 2279pa, 104wrc+, 14.4war, 4.1war/650
85bluejay - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 06:49 PM EST (#456835) #
Winning cures all ills - with or without Vlad/Bo, if the jays win fans will be happy and vice versa.
JB21 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 07:28 PM EST (#456836) #
Sounds about right that he would need to make that clear.
John Northey - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:05 PM EST (#456837) #
Bingo 85bluejay - given your name here I assume you are in my age group, thus suffered through the Ash years and saw that a single star doesn't equal winning, nor do 2 stars (just ask the Angels fans). It is a team game, you need a full team to win. If Vlad is lost that is 3-6 wins a year that needs to be recovered. With luck at 1B you can find a 2-3 win guy (maybe Alonso after the Mets dump him for Vlad) to get half of that right away.
Rich - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:24 PM EST (#456838) #
Absolutely it's a team game and 1 or 2 stars isn't enough.  That said, how many teams win pennants without stars?  I don't think very many.  So when you have stars, they're young, want to stay, and are homegrown to boot, I don't think you're helping the team's chances of winning to potentially let them leave when you could lock them up.  Maybe the Rays are the exception but they are masters are drafting and development and the Jays are no match for them in this department.
The team's not a contender in the first place, so downgrading from their best player isn't moving forwards.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:27 PM EST (#456839) #
hey we already replaced those wins with Gimenez!
85bluejay - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 08:49 PM EST (#456840) #
I wonder if Big Papi saying that Vladdy deserves 13/585 ( 45 per) is close to what Vladdy numbers are. Would you sign Vladdy for that amount?
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:25 PM EST (#456841) #
I find it interesting that Vlad wants:

a) to be one of the top-5 (top-3?) paid players in the league, and probably highest paid 1B of all time (for a long time)
b) to be on a competitive team that can win the world series so he can "give it to his dad"

when those two objectives are directly in competition with each other.

There have been / are plenty of mercenary players who always took the highest $$$ deals. Not all of them have rings (whether in baseball, hockey, football, etc).
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:31 PM EST (#456842) #
just plain bad luck that we end up with the players who want us to sign bad deals, and other teams get the guys who want to sign good deals.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:43 PM EST (#456843) #
I also found it interesting that Shapiro mentioned Ed's involvement in the negotiations. If Rogers was involved and they were still that far apart, then it seems like this goes beyond the FO. Keep in mind, no matter what the Jays have offered other players, their biggest contract given out is still $150M to Springer. Rogers has to be on board with these monster signings, and it seems like they were with Ohtani and Soto, but maybe not so much with Vladdy.

If Vladdy's ask was anywhere near that David Ortiz quote below, then I don't blame the Jays for tapping out.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:57 PM EST (#456844) #
So Big Papi thinks Vlad is worth 10% less annually than Soto.
Jacob - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 09:59 PM EST (#456845) #
Is anyone else out there secretly attempting to create a fantasy trade involving the exchange of Vlad for Devers?
John Northey - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:09 PM EST (#456846) #
Now that'd be funny - Devers is signed through 2033 (age 36) at $20-$33 mil per year (it varies by year) and is a legit 3B, not great on defense but not horrid. You'd have him from age 28-36 so a few years of prime and a few decline at a price that is high but not insane. Doubt the Sox would do it, but if they think they can sign Vlad long term they might as their clubhouse is becoming toxic right now and Triston Casas at 1B isn't a good idea (might become something, but hasn't had a 2 fWAR season yet) if they are contending, plus they don't like their DH Masataka Yoshida (1.4 fWAR over 2 seasons is pretty bad, 112 wRC+). I'd expect other players to be involved in a deal but there probably is a deal to be made if both sides want it.
Mike D - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:41 PM EST (#456847) #
It remains amazing to me that the team would kick off spring training by first calling a press conference for Vlad to humiliate the organization, and then to stage separate Atkins and Shapiro press conferences where they mumbled about "valuations" and how disappointed they were, while then committing to losing him for nothing after the season.  Surely, I live in the only city with a team employing a front office that would have done anything of the sort.  It reminds me of the sea captain from The Simpsons, furious about his bad restaurant review in the newspaper, until others ask "why on earth did you put the review up in your window?"
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 10:46 PM EST (#456848) #
Mike D,

You may want to read Cathal Kelly for a different take of the same events. He blasts Vladdy.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:03 PM EST (#456849) #
heh good post mikeD.
pooks137 - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:03 PM EST (#456850) #
Definitely a different narrative in the Cathal Kelly G&M article.

He at various points states that Vlad currently hates both the FO and the team.

He also chastises Guerrero Jr for committing the cardinal sin of "negotiating in public", which I don't recall him doing.

He doesn't really provide any evidence for these assertions. He also seems to think the sky is falling and blames everyone on all sides.
Gerry - Tuesday, February 18 2025 @ 11:14 PM EST (#456851) #
The rumour out there is that the Mets love Vlad. We, Vlad, and his agent know that Steve Cohen has oodles of money. Its possible that Vlad, with this knowledge, declined to lower his ask and just wait for the Mets. Its also possible that his agent has had some informal discussions with the Mets.

Even though Vlad is not a free agent, this negotiation could have gone as if he were.

On the bright side Vlad is playing for a contract in 2025, as is Bo.
John Northey - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 12:04 AM EST (#456852) #
Glad to hear someone out there is reporting it as more than 'Jays evil for not giving Vlad everything he wants'. Tried a bit to discuss online and hit good ol' Mike Wilner who is 100% on the hate Atkins/Shapiro train, even bringing up the Myles Straw trade as a point (suggesting the difference is what that guy is costing over 2 years per year). That is irrelevant unless he thinks the Jays will do that annually for 10 years if they don't sign Vlad. Is Vlad worth that much extra? Is $10-$15 mil a year that irrelevant? No. That much can cover a solid reliever or make the difference in if you sign a guy or not for the rotation, another position, whatever. The money spent on Vlad won't magically be a non-factor on anything else. If he gets $50 mil while providing $30 mil of value then that won't help and odds are, given his history, he will be worth $30-$40 mil a year, not $50+ (2021 & 24 were in that ballpark, 22/23 were not with '23 being barely over replacement value). FG has 21 worth $50.6 mil, '24 worth $43.7 mil. Would you pay him per year what his best year was for 10 years? I sure wouldn't, and FG tends to be over valuing guys if anything (Soto at $65 mil for last year, Ohtani $72 mil with no pitching (adds $20-$40 mil a year based on his last 3 years pitching).

In the end, I hope for a fun 2025. We can worry about Vlad & Bo's contracts after the year is over.
85bluejay - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 06:09 AM EST (#456853) #
Teaming up Soto & Vlad seems like an excellent idea, which is why I strongly advocated the jays pursue such a trade since Soto landed with the Mets and it was obvious that the Vlad extension was going nowhere.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 07:18 AM EST (#456854) #
Rumour is Vlad came down slightly from 600 million ask.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 07:31 AM EST (#456855) #
I also found it interesting that Shapiro mentioned Ed's involvement in the negotiations.
Rogers was also mentioned as being involved in the Soto pursuit. This isn't surprising: I don't think there's any way Shapiro and/or Atkins are getting a blank cheque to commit hundreds of millions of dollars for a decade, a contract that most likely will outlast their jobs in Toronto. These superstars also go beyond being merelly baseball players - they're marketing & media assets to Rogers as a whole. Rogers likely has an assessment of their value to Sportsnet, for example, which isn't strictly a baseball product.
adrianveidt - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 07:44 AM EST (#456856) #
If it's true that winning is a high priority, Vlad is on the wrong team. He should try to get to the Dodgers. The owner here isn't willing to pay for a team that would outlcass the Yankees every year.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 07:51 AM EST (#456857) #
$600m deferred or non-deferred?

Ohtani got a $700m contract but the present value of the contract was estimated to be around $460m.

So the Vladdy contract might have ended up being around $400-430m in present value, if it was structured in a similar way to the Ohtani contract.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 07:53 AM EST (#456858) #
If it's true winning is a high priority and Vlad truly wants to be here like he says but has refuses to sign because he's using Soto's deal as a starting point for comparison then Rogers should go sign another free agent that's serious like Kyle Tucker.

Same logic as yours.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 07:56 AM EST (#456859) #
According to Vlad's godfather he is worth 585/12. Wonder where he got that number from after Vlad told reporters he came down slightly).
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 07:58 AM EST (#456860) #
There is a good chance that later this year we'll be saying, why didn't the front office trade Vladdy to Seattle for some high-end prospects at the summer 2024 trade deadline.
adrianveidt - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 08:20 AM EST (#456861) #
The FO has tried signing other top free agents, but has been unwilling to pay them what they want. It's strange that the Jays are content to be such an expensive fourth place team. Why not shed payroll and be a cheap fourth place team, like the Rays or Pirates?

Failing that, they could decide to be a first place team, but the status quo just makes no sense to me.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 08:32 AM EST (#456862) #
I don't agree that they have not offered to pay top free agents. I agree they have not been able to sign top free agents. There is a big difference. All available facts show that this FO was willing to pay Soto, Ohtani, Cole, Seager, Verlander and Burnes top market dollars and every one of them picked another destination willing to pay similar but not more money. That's on the player not the ownership. That means top free agents don't seem to want to come here but it's not because of the money.

This is not a good reason to go and overpay Henderson or Witt Jr money for Vlad Jr. To me he is taking advantage of the bad state of the team post 2025 and the fact he likely has strong informal offers from BOS and NYM. He's using that to his advantage to try to get Toronto to match and they won't. At least not right now. Maybe if he can put up a 7 WAR season this year they will pay him what he wants but he is coming off a 1.3 WAR season in 2023 before his 6+WAR season in 2024. He has a remarkably low floor and I would pay Bo Vlad's ask before I paid Vlad. The idea that Vlad wants more than 200 million more than Tatis is crazy to me.

Returning to your criticism of ownership not spending, I do think it's obvious that there is an issue with the "Shapiro-ness" of this FO which is probably a deterrent to some of these big game top of class free agents. This FO does not have anything to show these free agents other than $$$$ which is not what these free agents want when they have one or two other similar offers. That's the criticism of this FO that many have made which is hard to defend. Farm system, culture, coaching.

The only good reason I can squint and think about to signing Vlad more than he is worth (my opinion only) is that it would undue a bunch of the bad business done by this FO in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and show that they are not tethered to Rays style "value." You're either a big spending club or your not and it seems to me that Shapiro is threading a needle of being a big budget club but never going all in because he is tethered to Rays style evaluation. Probably would be better if he just overpayed Vlad, Bo, Springer, Bassett, Gausman etc and then just used cheap players everywhere else.

Yeah you can see it's not an easy thing to criticize Vlad or defend the FO either way, I go back and forth. Ownership, however, has been a pleasant surprise during Shapiro's tenure.
adrianveidt - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 08:49 AM EST (#456863) #
The only good reason I can squint and think about to signing Vlad more than he is worth (my opinion only) is that it would undue a bunch of the bad business done by this FO in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and show that they are not tethered to Rays style "value." You're either a big spending club or your not and it seems to me that Shapiro is threading a needle of being a big budget club but never going all in because he is tethered to Rays style evaluation. Probably would be better if he just overpayed Vlad, Bo, Springer, Bassett, Gausman etc and then just used cheap players everywhere else.
Then we agree. Those "cheap players" should be prospects the farm system is sending up to the big club every year. Also, I don't think there's such a thing as overpaying. Was Tulowitzki overpaid when the Jays traded for him? Most people thought so. There's always some desperate team willing to trade for a washed up has-been with a big contract. We're fans, not owners. Are any Dodgers fans saying "Yes, we're going to win, and probably more World Series in the next 5 years, but boy, is this team expensive! I think we should cut payroll." Dodgers fans are thinking like fans. Yay, we're winning. Jays fans are forced to think like owners, which we're not. We should be talking about wins, not payroll. I don't remember anybody being worried about payroll on those WS teams, back when the Jays had the highest payroll in baseball.
Glevin - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 08:59 AM EST (#456864) #
To me, the bigger issue than not re-signing Vlad is the lack of direction. If Vlad wants $550m or something with little to no deferred money, that's crazy and Jays shouldn't do it. However, if you aren't going to sign him, you need to trade him and they should have probably traded him last deadline and then done free agency differently (no giving up picks to sign Santander), lots of short deals especially relievers/starters. It's this middling non-plan that I find intolerable. Just kind of limp along and hope Jays sneak into the playoffs and then what? Even if Jays make wildcard or something, then what? You lose Vlad and Bo for nothing and you are in much worse shape next year.
JB21 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 09:18 AM EST (#456865) #
Cathal Kelly's articles are clickbait. He's not a real journalist.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 09:18 AM EST (#456866) #
Adrian we are im agreement except about criticizing ownership instead of front office.

Glevin I agree with you (and I think Adrian does as well). There are more than a few posters who have been singing this chorus for one and even two years now and it appears they have been right. Lack of FO (not ownership) direction and inability to make commitment to get better vs straddling the middle and mediocre.



dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 09:20 AM EST (#456867) #
I really dislike Cathal's takes and attitude of negativity and typically son't read him but he had some good points about Vlad.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 10:15 AM EST (#456869) #
I get the distinct impression that Vladdy is overvaluing himself and the org was wise not to go too deep.

With that said, it's the front office's fault it got to this point, has been unable to develop a pipeline of talent (something they were supposed to be good at), has not made great trades, has not done better signing FAs, and has generally (from multiple accounts) created a pretty negative environment that is pretty lousy at communication.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see another club like the Mets or Red Sox or Dodgers meet his overblown price BUT given he has conditioning concerns (he looks to have put on a few pounds this past offseason) and is a 1B/DH so it's not a guarantee that he'll get more.

I've also said for a couple years now that he's not a great long-term investment (nor is Bo).

Anyway, I'm abandoning any more thought/energy on this topic until the offseason (or possibly the trade deadline).
uglyone - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 10:42 AM EST (#456870) #
no player is a "good" longterm investment.

the problem is every year you're competing against teams that have many poor longterm investments that are unfortunately very good in the shortterm.

but even then, for this franchise, i'd argue that not losing Vlad at this moment in particular is an extremely good longterm investment.


the bigger problem which people may have missed in yeterday's atkins presser is that he seems to absolutely believe he has put together a top tier contending roster this year and that is what is guiding his decisions, both long and short term.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 10:45 AM EST (#456871) #
CBS Sports has released their predictions for 2026 free agent contracts.

Vlad
Prediction: 12 years, $456 million ($38 million AAV)

Tucker
Prediction: Nine years, $333 million ($37 million AAV)

Bo
Prediction: Seven years, $185 million ($26.4 million AAV)

Schwarber
Prediction: three years, $72 million ($24 million)

dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 10:52 AM EST (#456872) #
"the bigger problem which people may have missed in yeterday's atkins presser is that he seems to absolutely believe he has put together a top tier contending roster this year and that is what is guiding his decisions, both long and short term."

Well I guess there are still some fans taking what a FO says at face value.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 11:11 AM EST (#456873) #
A friendly reminder that in 25yrs as owners, Rogers has managed to field exactly one legit contender - a 1st place record in the toughest division in basebaall, supported by by far the best run differential in mlb - and immediately got rid of the GM that very same year.

It's a comedy/tragedy so epic it would make shakespeare jealous.
jerjapan - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 11:37 AM EST (#456874) #
Nah, this is no Shakespearean tragedy.  You guys are stats heads, right?  I mean, someone always under performs, and sometimes it's hard to know exactly why.   And we do know our FO does the 'other stuff' well - everything the fans pulling for the best team don't care about, but owners do.  Employees do. 

What Shapiro and Atkins should have done in the past is not the same as what they should do now, but for what it's worth, I think they are being their 'best selves' right now.  They stuck to their beliefs, and may have extracted good value in the FA market.  I disagree with the philosophy, but these are smart guys who believe in themselves, just like the fading vets on the team likely believe in themselves. 

I just like that this is a prove it or lose it season for Shapiro, Atkins, Bo and Vlad, and really, a lot of players.  The aging rotation.   Aging Springer.  Injured Varsho, Manoah.  The plan B team of FAs and acquisitions, tons of rookies and fringe guys, pending FAs.
And I expect this utterly pragmatic FO to have a great trade deadline, wherever the team is at the deadline.  I can't see them as constitutionally capable of moves designed just to try and save their jobs.  Everyone sees the writing on the wall, and they remain pragmatists to a fault.

And if they don't prove it, it's see ya later and proper rebuild time. I'm sick of the status quo, we all are, and am willing to endure another blah year if it means we get rid of our FO.  And I'd be happy if the team proves me wrong. 
adrianveidt - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 11:55 AM EST (#456875) #
I agree Glevin. I can understand a Rays type plan, relying on cheap prospects and vets and occasionally winning. I disagree with it, but I understand it. I also understand outspending the Yankees and aiming for first place every year. What I don't understand is the expensive fourth place team plan that is evidently being used.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 11:58 AM EST (#456876) #
Jer they built one of the worst value rosters in baseball, with one of the worst systems.

Not sure what the "other stuff" is, but I do agree that in terms of what Rogers is looking for, they are ideal.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 11:58 AM EST (#456877) #
Friendly reminder to look up winning percentage of said GM that was actually fired BEFORE he delivered the results. Nice troll job again. I'm going to get ahead before more bashing comes from you because you're upset Vlad wasn't resigned on his own deadline day.

Just stop following this team already it's clear you hate the owners and front office and now they don't have the players you love coming back. Never mind that nobody wanted to own this team in 2001 and if it wasn't for current owners it likely would have been contracted. Nah, lets just pretend that this ownership is incompetent because they haven't won more than the Red Sox or Yankees. Right.

pooks137 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 12:18 PM EST (#456878) #
Not sure what the "other stuff" is, but I do agree that in terms of what Rogers is looking for, they are ideal.

Not OP, but I suspect some of the "other stuff" is praise from vets like Kiermaier or ?Justin Turner that passed through the org briefly that the Jays as an org went over & above to make their families feel welcome.

It's interesting as well that a guy like Yimi Garcia returned and re-signed almost immediately after being traded away in the firesale, which rarely happens.

scottt - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 12:38 PM EST (#456879) #
Schedule is up on Sportsnet. First game Saturday. Can hardly wait.
JB21 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 12:44 PM EST (#456880) #
Might have something to do with opportunity.
JB21 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 12:45 PM EST (#456881) #
(re: Yimi)
JB21 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 12:50 PM EST (#456882) #
dalimon5, it is clear that a large % of the fanbase is extremely frustrated with the owners and the front office.

The Jays have a very expensive and mediocre team with one of the lowest rated farm systems in baseball. This screams incompetent management.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 01:49 PM EST (#456883) #
"The Jays have a very expensive and mediocre team with one of the lowest rated farm systems in baseball. This screams incompetent management."

In 2021 and 2023 they had an affordable and contending team with at least an average farm system. That was not incompetent management and to call them that now without acknowledging the earlier part of their tenure is one-side in my view. It's not normal to have a cheap or average payroll, and to contend and to have a strong farm system. There is only one team in baseball that has done that. One team. The rest of them are mostly also very expensive, also have poor farm systems and depending on the year are also at the edge of their windows. The NYY are teetering on the edge. The Phillies will be there next year, etc etc.

It's hard for me to agree that this management is completely incompetent and inept when the complaints have only really come from most at the tail end of a window. You wouldn't sign a lease that increases year over year for 5 years and then in the last year of the lease scream bloody murder that you're being ripped off would you?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 01:58 PM EST (#456884) #
*Should read 2021 and 2022 not 2023.

But yeah, my point is there is too much complaining happening. If I get this right (not all posters of course but some and most general fans):

- Vlad should be resigned at all costs now because he wasn't resigned earlier whether or not he was willing to doesn't matter

- George Springer was a good signing for 3 years but now the management should be crucified and kick Springer off the team for the last 3 years because they are overpaying

- This FO is too cheap and needs to pay up and stop being cheap with free agents but somehow magically avoid overpaying same players in their decline years

- This team has not won a playoff game in 10 years under this FO even though they have made it to the playoffs so they should be fired and someone (who?) new should come in which will some how fix these above problems

- farm system is not good enough and it's 100% because the FO is inept and cannot bring alond and develop talent. It has nothing other than do with pitching injuries, Manoah falling apart, Martinez and his suspension, etc...just erase all of that and pretend that none of these prospects and young major leaguers have any shine left...they are all sum zero now

- Top 5 payroll is not enough, Rogers is bad ownership and they won't pay to win

- My favourite, by far, AA wouldn't have let any of this happen and would magically make this team more competitive with a great farm system to boot and players would magically want to sign here more. Don't worry about the fact he couldn't spend or attract free agents while here, couldn't get ownership to pay up and didn't really compete until he was notified he was being replaced because of his failure to entrust ownership

- I am sure same fans will be posting in June after Bo returns to form that this FO blew it by not resigning Bo.


You can see what I find contradictory and silly with the ultra reactive takes from the fans. The Yankees and Mets will have Soto and Judge as major anchors in due time and will be just like the Angels are now with Trout and Rendon. It all goes around in cycles.
JB21 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 02:15 PM EST (#456886) #
when the complaints have only really come from most at the tail end of a window.

I don't believe this to be true.
JB21 - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 02:17 PM EST (#456887) #
This list is hyperbole that you're typing out yourself. Unless you're referencing Twitter comments, BB.com posters don't sound like that.
John Northey - Wednesday, February 19 2025 @ 03:28 PM EST (#456889) #
Good points on the fans here. I've read interviews where players on the Jays are surprised that fans here tend to get on owners and management, not the players. It is an oddity. Rather than get mad at Bo for playing terrible last year when healthy, we get mad at the GM for not having an all-star in AAA ready to take over. Instead of being mad that Kikuchi never gave us a 2 WAR season, then pitched extremely well in Houston, we are mad the GM traded him and then didn't sign him in the winter. Romano had a terrible year (hurt, sucked when on the field) but we get mad that he wasn't kept, despite the Jays signing a better guy to replace him (Hoffman).

In 2021-2023 the team made 2 playoffs and missed one by 1 game. 89-92 wins each year. Yeah, they sucked in the playoffs with that nightmare game in '22 being the ! on the Vlad/Bo era unless they do something this year. Kind of reminds me of 83-90 the Stieb-Bell-Moseby-Barfield (until 88) era. They made 2 playoffs but will always be remembered for the year they didn't make it - '87 when they lost 7 straight to end the season (damn that one hurt). The Jays cleared them all out for next to nothing (Al Leiter for Barfield was all they got). The big deal (Fernandez-McGriff for Alomar-Carter - 2 all-stars and 2 HOF'ers in their prime) shifted everything, along with other deals (Junior Felix - a young hotshot we thought [was about 10 years older than we were told] for Devon White a WOW defender with a meh bat) and free agent signings (Morris, Winfield) changed everything. But that team also had a strong farm (top ranked at times) despite horrid drafts (Gillick was infamous for wasting first round picks). But once the contending window was done it was DONE for 2 decades+.

So bottom line, this GM/president combo has its issues (farm weaker than it should be, terrible at PR) they also have their pluses (get Rogers to pay up to get quality players and to get the stadium rebuilt). We've had 4 years of contending (20-23) plus a 5th in '16 many give credit to the previous GM for (who basically was Ash but more fun up until mid-'15). In the end we've had more fun Jays baseball than any period since the 83-93 heyday. They were part of the 15/16 fun too (would '16 have been successful without the Hutchinson for Liriano/McGwire trade? or signing Marco Estrada & JA Happ? Would AA have been able to do those same deals or would he have done different ones? If AA got what he wanted (to be president with no restrictions) would he have been able to convince Rogers to spend like Shapiro has? Unlikely given the 10-15 era. Jays made it by 3 games that year - Happ & Estrada (was here in '15 but was a free agent, could've easily left) were keys.

A lot of the media HATES Shapiro and Atkins - Mike Wilner leads that crew so strongly that I'm finding his podcast nearly unlistenable now as that is a key part of every episode it seems. To me what matters is winning. Should the Jays flop in '25 that is probably it for them, but if they win they get new 5 year deals I suspect.
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