Obviously a big concern in MLB (especially with guys like Cole going down) is how many starters do you need if you are to contend in 2025? 5? 6? 16? Hard to say. Also how badly does the quality drop after the first 5? Let's do some digging.
Ideally you have 5 getting 32 each with 2 spot starts by someone (or two get 33 starts).
Boy were a lot of guys used and abused in 2019. 114 IP from #9 and beyond starters. Wow.
Too much to view? Here is a quick summary...
Ideally you have 5 getting 32 each with 2 spot starts by someone (or two get 33 starts).
- 2024: 3 with 31+ starts, 2 in the low 20's, 13 for Francis, 4 more with 5 and under (12 starts).
- 2023: 4 with 31+ starts, 19 for Manoah, 11 Ryu, with 2 guys eating up a total of 4 starts.
- 2022: 3 with 31+ starts, 2 in low 20's, 8 with 8 or fewer starts (24 starts - ugh)
- 2021: 2 with 31+ starts, 1 with 29, 1 with 20, 1 with 19, 12 by Berrios, 10 with 5 or fewer (19 starts).
Lets look at Jays history - at first I was just going with 21-24 but... well... I couldn't resist digging back to 1977 just for fun. For these charts I'm using IP as a starter to determine ranking as it'd be a very, very hard job to figure out who the top 5 on opening day were, factor in guys who were hurt opening day but should've been there, etc. Big 3 = 3 starters with most IP, Top 5 is the rotation basically, 6-16 covers all the rest of the guys used (max starters in Jays history was 16), 9+ is for the 9th and beyond pitchers (ie: bottom of the barrel stage, often getting just 1 or 2 starts each). Bold year = playoffs anything else in bold = best result in Jays history for this group. Italics indicates last place finish (year) or worst result in Jays history for this group (anything else).
| Big 3 | Top 5 in rotation | |||||||||||||
| Year | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | Year | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
| 1977 | 101 | 713.2 | 4.27 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 1977 | 131 | 876.5 | 4.53 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 4.4 | |
| 1978 | 90 | 596.3 | 4.14 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 1978 | 132 | 840.6 | 4.66 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 4.7 | |
| 1979 | 83 | 536.2 | 4.36 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 1979 | 117 | 759.5 | 4.42 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | |
| 1980 | 88 | 597.4 | 3.75 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 1980 | 118 | 777.6 | 3.96 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 4.4 | |
| 1981 | 66 | 413.2 | 3.90 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 1981 | 90 | 562.4 | 3.89 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | |
| 1982 | 116 | 803.5 | 3.62 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 1982 | 147 | 963.7 | 3.89 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | |
| 1983 | 105 | 718.1 | 3.70 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 1983 | 150 | 995.2 | 3.93 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 5.1 | |
| 1984 | 106 | 746.4 | 3.62 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 1984 | 153 | 1044.7 | 3.73 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 | |
| 1985 | 104 | 731.3 | 3.00 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 1985 | 141 | 925.6 | 3.31 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | |
| 1986 | 103 | 653.3 | 4.06 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 1986 | 140 | 878.4 | 4.17 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 5.3 | |
| 1987 | 104 | 680.3 | 3.41 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 1987 | 139 | 854.5 | 3.72 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 5.7 | |
| 1988 | 96 | 599.3 | 3.92 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 1988 | 133 | 810.4 | 4.02 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 5.4 | |
| 1989 | 97 | 623.3 | 3.47 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 1989 | 145 | 902.7 | 3.59 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 3.9 | |
| 1990 | 93 | 565.4 | 3.80 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 1990 | 141 | 865.6 | 3.82 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | |
| 1991 | 95 | 608.1 | 3.52 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 1991 | 137 | 875.5 | 3.36 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 5.6 | |
| 1992 | 95 | 636.6 | 3.48 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 1992 | 136 | 888.6 | 3.88 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 5.6 | |
| 1993 | 93 | 600.4 | 4.23 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 1993 | 146 | 914.6 | 4.60 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 5.9 | |
| 1994 | 71 | 454.4 | 4.87 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 1994 | 110 | 693.7 | 4.83 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 7.5 | |
| 1995 | 82 | 518.3 | 4.91 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 1995 | 110 | 709.6 | 4.86 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 6.6 | |
| 1996 | 97 | 666.6 | 3.85 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 1996 | 128 | 828.8 | 4.47 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 6.6 | |
| 1997 | 100 | 722.2 | 3.27 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 1997 | 135 | 924.4 | 3.73 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 7.1 | |
| 1998 | 94 | 620.6 | 3.99 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 1998 | 140 | 917.7 | 4.17 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 7.3 | |
| 1999 | 98 | 598.2 | 5.10 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 1999 | 140 | 852.3 | 4.84 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | |
| 2000 | 86 | 537.6 | 5.21 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 2000 | 124 | 766.6 | 4.73 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 6.3 | |
| 2001 | 86 | 517.5 | 4.87 | 10.9 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 2001 | 123 | 721.9 | 4.76 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 5.5 | |
| 2002 | 79 | 504.4 | 4.19 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 2002 | 111 | 672.5 | 4.55 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 5.8 | |
| 2003 | 97 | 616.3 | 4.61 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 2003 | 134 | 832.5 | 4.49 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 6.0 | |
| 2004 | 84 | 520.1 | 4.40 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 2004 | 121 | 733.4 | 4.42 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | |
| 2005 | 92 | 537.3 | 4.15 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 2005 | 135 | 812.5 | 3.90 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 5.6 | |
| 2006 | 85 | 536.4 | 3.78 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 2006 | 119 | 714.6 | 4.12 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 6.3 | |
| 2007 | 83 | 559.5 | 3.84 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 2007 | 128 | 812.7 | 3.85 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 6.7 | |
| 2008 | 95 | 636.3 | 3.42 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 7.5 | 2008 | 139 | 898.5 | 3.54 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 7.4 | |
| 2009 | 86 | 556.2 | 3.93 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 2009 | 127 | 780.4 | 4.38 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 7.3 | |
| 2010 | 91 | 577.3 | 3.85 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 2010 | 129 | 785.6 | 4.07 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 7.9 | |
| 2011 | 82 | 527.3 | 3.96 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 2011 | 116 | 709.5 | 4.36 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 7.4 | |
| 2012 | 84 | 492.3 | 4.72 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 2012 | 116 | 670.3 | 4.70 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 5.9 | |
| 2013 | 87 | 533.6 | 4.33 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 2013 | 121 | 706.9 | 4.58 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 7.1 | |
| 2014 | 98 | 601.4 | 3.85 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 2014 | 144 | 874.5 | 3.82 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 7.3 | |
| 2015 | 93 | 582.4 | 3.69 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 2015 | 132 | 804.5 | 3.89 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 6.2 | |
| 2016 | 94 | 591 | 3.53 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 7.5 | 2016 | 152 | 936.1 | 3.69 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 7.5 | |
| 2017 | 91 | 532.1 | 3.87 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 8.2 | 2017 | 127 | 702.3 | 4.34 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 8.0 | |
| 2018 | 72 | 376.3 | 5.14 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 7.9 | 2018 | 111 | 583.4 | 5.17 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 7.6 | |
| 2019 | 73 | 375.5 | 4.67 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 2019 | 100 | 464.7 | 4.55 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 8.1 | |
| 2020 | 30 | 140.3 | 4.68 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 2020 | 42 | 194.6 | 4.25 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 8.7 | |
| 2021 | 92 | 512.3 | 3.64 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 2021 | 131 | 709.6 | 3.70 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 9.5 | |
| 2022 | 94 | 542.4 | 3.55 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 2022 | 138 | 747.6 | 3.64 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 8.7 | |
| 2023 | 97 | 556.4 | 3.70 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 8.9 | 2023 | 147 | 828.5 | 3.81 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 9.4 | |
| 2024 | 94 | 544.1 | 3.85 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 2024 | 137 | 745.5 | 4.07 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 8.4 | |
| #6-16 in rotation | |
#9+ in Rotation (desperation guys) | ||||||||||||||
| Year | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | How Many | Year | GS | IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | How Many | |
| 1977 | 30 | 167.3 | 5.49 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6 | 1977 | 5 | 22.1 | 6.92 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3 | |
| 1978 | 29 | 171.4 | 4.36 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3 | 1978 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1979 | 45 | 256.7 | 6.17 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 8 | 1979 | 14 | 71.3 | 6.56 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 5 | |
| 1980 | 44 | 198.4 | 6.12 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 6 | 1980 | 12 | 45.2 | 7.17 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3 | |
| 1981 | 16 | 88.4 | 4.79 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3 | 1981 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1982 | 15 | 70.3 | 6.15 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 4 | 1982 | 2 | 7 | 9.00 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1 | |
| 1983 | 12 | 43.2 | 9.17 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3 | 1983 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1984 | 10 | 47.3 | 5.52 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 3 | 1984 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1985 | 20 | 87.4 | 3.60 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 5 | 1985 | 2 | 9 | 2.00 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2 | |
| 1986 | 23 | 121.4 | 4.15 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4 | 1986 | 1 | 1 | 27.00 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 9.0 | 1 | |
| 1987 | 23 | 112.5 | 5.28 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 7.9 | 6 | 1987 | 4 | 10.3 | 13.11 | 20.1 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3 | |
| 1988 | 29 | 156.2 | 3.46 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3 | 1988 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1989 | 17 | 78.4 | 4.48 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 7 | 1989 | 7 | 28.3 | 4.45 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4 | |
| 1990 | 21 | 99.7 | 5.06 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 6 | 1990 | 6 | 29.6 | 4.86 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3 | |
| 1991 | 25 | 136.6 | 4.35 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 6 | 1991 | 5 | 22.2 | 4.05 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3 | |
| 1992 | 26 | 147.2 | 5.44 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 4 | 1992 | 2 | 8 | 5.63 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1 | |
| 1993 | 16 | 83.1 | 5.09 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 3 | 1993 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1994 | 5 | 19 | 9.47 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 2 | 1994 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 1995 | 34 | 200.1 | 5.76 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 1995 | 8 | 40.1 | 4.71 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 2 | |
| 1996 | 34 | 174.7 | 6.23 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6 | 1996 | 7 | 28.4 | 10.46 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 3 | |
| 1997 | 27 | 128.2 | 5.90 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 5 | 1997 | 3 | 14 | 9.00 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 2 | |
| 1998 | 23 | 143.2 | 4.02 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 4 | 1998 | 2 | 14 | 1.93 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 22 | 112.2 | 7.46 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3 | 1999 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 2000 | 38 | 189.2 | 7.28 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 7 | 2000 | 8 | 33 | 7.64 | 13.9 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 4 | |
| 2001 | 39 | 238.1 | 3.33 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 7.3 | 4 | 2001 | 1 | 4.1 | 6.59 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 51 | 263.5 | 6.22 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 8 | 2002 | 16 | 74.3 | 7.03 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5 | |
| 2003 | 28 | 141.6 | 5.97 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5 | 2003 | 5 | 12.2 | 15.49 | 22.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2 | |
| 2004 | 40 | 196.4 | 6.51 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6 | 2004 | 6 | 30.2 | 4.77 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 3 | |
| 2005 | 27 | 133.4 | 6.07 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 4 | 2005 | 3 | 10.1 | 12.48 | 21.4 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 1 | |
| 2006 | 43 | 181.7 | 6.59 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 7 | 2006 | 10 | 29.2 | 7.71 | 13.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4 | |
| 2007 | 34 | 183.4 | 6.04 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 6 | 2007 | 4 | 15.2 | 11.84 | 15.4 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 23 | 122 | 5.09 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 3 | 2008 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 2009 | 35 | 181.5 | 5.90 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 7 | 2009 | 10 | 46.4 | 8.34 | 12.2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 4 | |
| 2010 | 33 | 169.8 | 5.46 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 6 | 2010 | 10 | 52.3 | 4.13 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 3 | |
| 2011 | 46 | 251.9 | 5.14 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7 | 2011 | 15 | 69.7 | 6.86 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 4 | |
| 2012 | 46 | 242.9 | 5.22 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 7 | 2012 | 13 | 63.7 | 5.95 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 8.9 | 4 | |
| 2013 | 41 | 188.7 | 5.77 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 8 | 2013 | 11 | 38.7 | 7.01 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 5 | |
| 2014 | 18 | 82.3 | 5.58 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4 | 2014 | 1 | 3.0 | 5.81 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1 | |
| 2015 | 30 | 158.5 | 4.37 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 7 | 2015 | 10 | 42.3 | 7.64 | 14.9 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 4 | |
| 2016 | 10 | 58.3 | 2.93 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 2 | 2016 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 2017 | 35 | 163.7 | 5.61 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 9 | 2017 | 15 | 69.3 | 6.48 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 6 | |
| 2018 | 51 | 253.0 | 5.12 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 9 | 2018 | 14 | 61.7 | 6.00 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 6 | |
| 2019 | 62 | 242.3 | 6.69 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 16 | 2019 | 33 | 114.0 | 6.01 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 13 | |
| 2020 | 18 | 57.7 | 5.77 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 7 | 2020 | 7 | 19.3 | 3.73 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 4 | |
| 2021 | 31 | 123.7 | 4.37 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 11 | 2021 | 11 | 22.7 | 6.40 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 8 | |
| 2022 | 24 | 77.7 | 7.43 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 8 | 2022 | 6 | 13.3 | 11.42 | 16.8 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 5 | |
| 2023 | 15 | 65.0 | 4.43 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 7.6 | 3 | 2023 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 2024 | 25 | 114.3 | 3.23 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 5 | 2024 | 3 | 8.1 | 4.44 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 2 | |
Boy were a lot of guys used and abused in 2019. 114 IP from #9 and beyond starters. Wow.
Too much to view? Here is a quick summary...
- Top 3 led in ERA 29 of 48 years, 2nd 16 times, 3rd 3 times (1995, 2001, 2020), never worst of the 4 groups.
- Top 5 led ERA in 10 years, 2nd 30 times, 3rd 7 times, 4th once (1998) - which means in 1998 the 4/5 starters REALLY stunk
- 6-16 led ERA 5 times (88, 01, 16, 18, 24) - normally a sign something went horribly wrong imo (best starters hurt a lot, misjudged who the top 5 were), 2nd twice, 3rd 32 times, 4th 9 times (meaning 9+ were better than 6-8)
- 9+ led 4 times (85-95-98-20) - 85 and 98 just 2 games by these super-depth guys so just a fluke (23 IP total those 2 years combined). In '95 they started 8 times (40 1/3 IP 4.71 ERA - it was a bad year), '20 was the freakshow year (7 of 60 games started by 9+ spot starters, 4 guys).
- Big 3 best ERA 3.00 in '85, worst a 5.21 in 2000, most starts 116 in '82 (4 man rotation), fewest in a non-strike/COVID year is 72 in 2018.
- Top 5 best ERA 3.31 in '85, worst a 5.17 in 2018, most starts 153 in '84 (just 10 by others-a tie in there), fewest 100 in 2019 (same conditions as above).
- 6-16 best ERA 2.93 in 2016 (just 10 starts), worst 9.17 in '94 (5 starts in the shortened year).
- 9+ best ERA 1.93 in '98 (2 starts, both by Halladay, one a near no-no), worst 27.00 in 1986 (1 horrid start by Duane Ward who got 1 more the next year 5 ER in 1 IP before they figured out closing was where he belonged)
- Top 3 the best 6 times, 2nd best 3 times, in the 3's for ERA in all but 1993 (4.23 ERA - worst for a Jays playoff teams big 3)
- Top 5 the best once (1991), 2nd best 6 times, 3rd 2 times. Only over 4 in 1993 of course.
- 6-16 the best in 2016 (10 starts) - Francisco Liriano the reason (2.93 ERA). ERA of 5.44 in 1992 (26 starts), 5.09 in 1993 (16 starts), but worst was 2022 at 7.43 in 24 starts (77 2/3 IP) - White a big part of that (8 starts 7.74 ERA)
- 9+ the best in 1985 (2.00 ERA in 2 starts Lamp & Cerutti), but no 9th+ starter in 1993-2016-2023.