Nice. After Verlander signed, I had this to say here: "If you like Verlander, Scherzer is still available. I get the "raise the floor" argument for Quintana but would prefer to raise the ceiling with Scherzer. He'd be worth a lot more if healthy at the deadline."

If he's only making 15M it tells you what the market thinks about his stuff/health, but it's a good move nonetheless. Not the frontline SP I was hoping for, but a good roll of the dice for just cash. If they can get 100-150 innings out of him, boom.

As I said in the other thread, when/if he throws a pitch for the team he'll immediately be one of the best pitchers career-wise to ever do so. Halladay, Stieb, Clemens... Jack Morris? Frank Viola? Henke? Mad Max would be a Top 5 without a doubt I think.

Agreede Eephus - as I've added to the article, wanted to get it up quickly so we could talk about him here. He'll be the 5th HOF'er to pitch here I think (could've missed someone but I don't think I did). Niekro was at the end here, sad that he didn't get more of a shot (was at his first game as a Jay and it was fun to watch him, sadly Jimy Williams had no clue what to do with a knuckleball pitchers - that they need TONS of innings and to be used often as he left him on the bench for 10 days at a time).

Projected payroll for Blue Jays 2025 post Mad Max signing

273,000,000

Thresholds
241,000,000
261,000,000 *currently past
281,000,000
301,000,000

Realistically, is this it for Blue Jays signings this off-season? Or are they going to make one more splash?

Sometimes-accurate Hector Gomez saying that more good news will be coming for Blue Jays fans. Meaning...?

Just 2 things left - either sign Alonso and/or sign Vlad long term. Nothing much else outside of a big trade.

Cot's with Max included has the Jays at $267,230,535 for luxury tax purposes. So an Alonso signing would push them up to the final threshold (roughly $30 mil based on rumors). A long term $40 mil per deal for Vlad would push them to the edge of #3.

I assume a Vlad extension would start in 2026 (to preserve some payroll space for 2025).

John: He'll be just the fourth HOFer to pitch here. You seem to have installed Clemens ahead of the voters ;-)

Oops, I always mess that up - Clemens was such a dead on lock. Makes no sense to me that the voters who were hyping up the PED users like mad in '98 thus leading to Clemens and Bonds both saying 'screw it' now moralize on it.

So 12 of 13 slots I'd say are locked in stone for the pitching staff, the lineup?

• C: Kirk/Heineman; 1B: Vlad; 2B: Giménez; 3B: Clement; SS: Bo; LF: Santander; CF: Varsho (when healthy); RF: Springer; DH: ???
• Backups/DH: take your pick of Jimenez (2B/SS/3B), Schneider (2B/LF), Straw (CF - super unlikely if his pay doesn't count against the payroll right now), Loperfido (OF), Clase (OF), Berroa (OF), Lukes (OF), Orelvis Martinez (2B/3B/SS)

Yeah, Alonso really would look good right now as the 1B/DH with Vlad as 3B/DH/1B in some rotation with Clement mixed in. That'd lock down the team nicely for 2025.

I am blown away by the Max Scherzer signing. The Jays chose to overspend for 2025. So 2025 is not a rebuild which I once speculated about. Also 2025 is a minor youth movement rather than a major one IMO.

So no more talk it seems about us being out of it at the trade deadline. Scherzer is solid depth for the rotation. I am getting 2013 vibes at the moment.

I’d expect another bat even if it’s not Alonso or Bregman, though I think the chances of one of them have increased a bit with this signing. A Vladdy extension if it happens will take effect in 2026 so I’m guessing Alonso would be the FO’s preference since they could sign him and hope he opts out after year 1, which would clear payroll room to reload again next winter.

Couldn't agree more.

As I've said elsewhere, I don't totally understand the previous deals (Santander and Gimenez) in a world in which you aren't resigning either or both of Vlad or Bo. But this signing absolutely works in any circumstance and this is the exact swing for the fences for 2025 that they needed to do. Now, if they resign Vlad and move on from Bo, whether by his choice or theirs (after the season or at the trade deadline), then they will have had a pretty thoughtfully executed offseason.

Nigel you make it seem like its normal to run a payroll of sub 100 million if they can't resign Vlad and Bo. It's really not normal to spend like the bottom feeders because you don't have stars signed long term. I much prefer they add talent like Santander and Gimenez than not under any circumstance. Spending half a billion or more on two young players doesn't change that, does it?

There's no chance that the Jays would run a sub $100m payroll in 2026. That's not even what I've been remotely suggesting.

I wonder if they'll do some kind of Thunder Dome promo.

The current roster is good enough for me.
I wouldn't mind a right bat that mashes against lefties, but it's probably better to get someone to steal ABs from Springer.

" I don't totally understand the previous deals (Santander and Gimenez) in a world in which you aren't resigning either or both of Vlad or Bo."

You're relating Vlad and Bo not signing to two other players signed for 5 more years. Why don't you understand those signings and trades existing in a world without Vlad and Bo? It suggests not signing or trading for those players based on their salary, so take away Vlad, Bo, Santander, Gimenez for 2026. Take out Gauseman and Bassit snd Springer and more after that. You're essentially saying "resign Vlad and Bo" or don't spend money to compete, correct?

Nightingale tweet after the signing: “$15.5 million….and still have interest in signing 1B Pete Alonso if he doesn’t return to the Mets.”

Nigel you see a thoughtfully executed offseason.....i see them throwing money at the problem in any way they can.....

....and i heartily approve.

AL EAST

NYY - 87 * Division
BOS - 84 ** WC
BAL - 84 ** WC
TB - 83.5
TOR - 83

AL CENTRAL

MIN - 92 * Division
KC - 81
DET - 81
CLE - 77
CWS - 63

AL WEST

TEX - 85 Division
HOU - 84 ** WC
SEA - 82
LAA - 76
OAK - 76

----------

NL East
ATL - 93 * Division
PHI - 87 ** WC
NYM - 87 **WC
WAS - 76
FLA - 72

NL Central
CHC - 83 * Division
STL - 82
MIL - 81
PIT - 79
CIN - 78

NL West
LAD - 94 * Division
AZ - 86 ** WC
SFG - 82
SD - 82
COL - 64

I usually take the optimistic view on their trades and signings, but for some reason I get a Jack Morris/Dave Stewart vibe from this signing. Granted, it looks like he slots in as a #4 starter, unlike Morris and Stewart, nevertheless I fear his numbers will be disappointing relative to expectations.

I don’t think there’s any mystifying rhyme or reason to the sudden spending which is why I said in October (and began to walk back, until the Jeff Hoffman signing) that we are about to enter unprecedented spending. The most obvious reason is that this team needs to make the playoffs this year or Shapiro and Atkins are both gone. It was true last June when it became obvious the team stunk and it is true now with it becoming clear the Jays have a good chance to be good if not great in ‘25. I couldn’t be happier. If this team is able to to pull off a Bregman or an Alonso, it will have done what they should have been doing ever since those losses in the playoffs which is act like a huge market team…because they are.

yep, and not just about making the playoffs but crucially about not suffering the disaster of losing vladdy.

so much at stake for this franchise right now. glad they realize it.

From Hector Gomez: “SOURCE: Talks between the #BlueJays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are flowing satisfactorily regarding a possible contract extension. The Jays are getting closer to what Vladdy Jr. is looking for.”

Rogers being willing to spend this much, and possibly more if Alonso is next, is a good sign moving forward regardless of how 2025 ends up. You can really see the potential this franchise has if they ever get to a point where they are developing talent well.

The Jays O/U win total moved from 76.5 to 78.5 tonight. WAR in action.

Glad to see the Scherzer signing and the team spending.

I'm still not optimistic our aging/declining rotation holds up, and we're not well served for a 3 game series, but we definitely are in with a chance.

Yeah the signing is ok - much needed depth... Scherzer should bring some fire and inspiration to the pitchers but he's a fragile No. 4 starter at this point.

I'm fairly confident Vladdy will get done by the spring deadline but I'm skeptical that Alonso or Bregman are happening at this point.

The former would be a better fit for the lineup (pure masher) and from a contract length perspective (even if they added a 4th year) but the latter just doesn't improve the offensive enough to lock in for $28Mx6 or whatever it would take to get it over the finish line.

I really like this move! The team has ratcheted up the injury risk, but there is definitely a path to contention. Gotta love that!

The flip side, if things do go sideways (which I absolutely don’t want to see) the team is also set up to be massive sellers at the deadline which could help the system make an even bigger jump than last year.

One way or another, we’re all in for an entertaining season.

That's the big thing for ownership... this team will now sell a lot more tickets (and just hope the team doesn't stumble out of the gate).

They have a very tough first two months with only two series against non-contenders. The other four AL East teams have noticeably easier schedules with Baltimore probably having the easiest.

https://www.tsn.ca/scott-mitchell-top-50-toronto-blue-jays-prospects-of-2025-1.2244625

Scott Mitchell (TSN) Top 50

They will have to DFA someone. Probably a pitcher.
Then Manoah and Bastardo will go to he 60 IL until late in the year.
Nance and Pop are out of options and that last slot should end up with guys who can be optioned before long anyway.
Varsho, is also on the IL for a couple of months.
So, they could promote a guy and pick another on waivers.

The bench should be Heineman, Jimenez and a couple of outfielders, at least one of them a right bat.
There's a competition for DH, with Wagner probably in the lead and a left bat playing most of CF.

Thanks mendocino for the TSN link - I try to keep track of top 30/50 lists from assorted sources but it can be a pain as there are so many. Obviously cannot afford to subscribe to all the assorted sites (BP, BA, Athletic, etc.) so that limits it too. Ah, to be in my 20's with no kids and no commitments beyond a car payment and mortgage. Neither of those now in my 50's but I do have 4 kids who are far more expensive.

Steve Phillips commented that he wondered if Max Scherzer would have signed with the Jays if he didn't think that either Alonso or Bregman was going to be signed as well.

Bob Nightingale, on the other hand, thinks Alonso will land back with the Mets and that if Bregman doesn't go back to Houston, that he will end up in Detroit or Boston.

If the Jays sign Vlad to an extension, then I would consider it a good offseason, although I still don't see the team breaking much more than .500. A lot depends on what version of Bo Bichette we see this year, and if the team adds another bat.

I'm on board with the consensus that Alonso would be the better signing of the two (other bring Bregman).

Agree Max is okay but good signing.

Marc I think Vlad signs too. Wouldn't it be completely unexpected and awesome if Bo re-upped also?

Sucks to resign Vlad to be the third highest paid player in MLB when he isn't the third best player but that's what happens when you don't sign him during down years I guess. Gotta love that Tatis contract and I never ever anticipated that deal or 700 million for any player later.

"I usually take the optimistic view on their trades and signings, but for some reason I get a Jack Morris/Dave Stewart vibe from this signing."

I scanned past this comment yesterday - but it stuck in my head and i couldn't figure out why.

And then I realized today that it's because you were describing Morris/Stewart as BAD signings.....when i've always thought they were good ones.

We knew we weren't signing prime Morris or Stewart, but they both were very solid SP for us and key to those teams' winning. Morris was better regular season than playoffs, Stewart better playoffs than regular season, but both were good mid-rotation starters for us that we couldn't have gone without.

For me, getting a Morris/Stewart vibe from this can only be a good thing.


Unfortunately, i'm a bit more worried about Scherzer's health than consistent workhorses like Morris/Stewart.

I wouldn't say that I thought Morris/Stewart were bad signings, but rather that they didn't live up to the expectations we had of them as top of the rotation starters. I understand that Max is slotted in as the #4 guy, but I just don't see him moving the needle as much as we'd like.

It's a quirky bit of Jays trivia that Morris was the first 20 game winner in franchise history. Our defense in 1992 wasn't up to the standard he had in DET or for that one great year in MIN and he deserved better than an ERA of about 4, but on the other hand he was absolutely terrible throughout the playoffs. Walks and homers galore and a couple of undignified early exits. Giving him a multiyear deal was obviously a mistake, but there were much bigger problems for the team after 1993.

In the grander scheme, Morris is the Harold Baines of pitchers and someone undeserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame. I was at game 5 of the '92 WS, homerun territory in the 500 level behind left field, and he ruined my childhood (jk?) by giving up a grand slam to Lonnie Smith while I was in a long McDonalds line with my best friend. You never forgive an offense like this. I can't imagine what it'd have been like to see them clinch the first one at home...

I always thought that the depictions of Morris/Stewart as frontline SP when we signed them were more about our insecurity as market in not appreciating how good our own homegrown talent like Key Guzman Hentgen were.

I don't think that any stats back then would have shown that either should have been considered the best or even 2nd best SP on the staff when they signed.

Except of course Morris' legendary IP stats.

"I understand that Max is slotted in as the #4 guy, but I just don't see him moving the needle as much as we'd like."

How much do you want to move the needle and are you willing to pay Jack Flaherty to do it? Aside from that you need Scherzer and an Alonso type to "move the needle past 4 WAR.

thing is, signing a "good #4" IS a needle-mover for us. we needed it.

The best thing about the Scherzer signing is that it pushes guys like Rodriguez out of the Opening Day rotation and lengthens the SP depth chart. Even if Max can't be counted on for a whole season's worth of starts.

I saw elsewhere that Shi Davidi claims that Rodriguez has a clause in his contract that he can't be optioned to the minors for 2025 & subsequent years.

If so, that makes it a lot harder to stretch him out as a 6th starter if he's chained to the MLB bullpen for the whole year.

Given that you probably can't rely on Scherzer for a full season, you could do a sort of Scherzer-Rodriguez combo - try for 5 innings from Scherzer & 3-4 from Rodriguez; maybe Scherzer skips a start every few weeks & Rodriguez fills in. That could keep Rodriguez ready to step in as a starter if/when needed.

So what was added/subtracted so far? Via FanGraphs, guys in brackets are non-factors imo (Buffalo churn) and one could argue the same for some of the guys I kept - numbers in brackets are projected WAR (steamer).

• Added: Scherzer (2.0), Santander (2.7), Hoffman (0.9), Garcia (0.6), Gimenez (3.5), Sandlin (0.1), (Kloffenstein, Bethancourt, Lovelady, Walker, Sanchez, Lauer, Gowdy, Stefanic, Bastardo, Peterson, Straw)
• Cut: Romano (0.3), Tate (0.0), Cabrera (0.0), Yarborough (0.0), Horwitz (1.8), (E Ramirez, Frias, Eisert, deGaus, Mitchell, Danner, Raposo, DeLosSantos)

So net add = 9.8, Cut = 2.1; net gain = 7.7 add to 74 wins and you have 81.7 wins - so all those changes and cash shift this team from a sub 500 to a 500 club. But... we all know Bo should do better, Vlad worse, Springer should be better, Gausman and Bassitt both should be better, Francis hopefully more than a 1 WAR pitcher as well. Mix those in and this club should contend for a wild card at least. Get some of that luck that always evades us and anything is possible. Runs for/against says the Jays are within 1 win each year outside of '21 when they should've won 99 (but got 91 and no playoffs), +3 in '20 to get in the playoffs, 2019 -4 (made no diff), 2018 +4 (again, no diff), 2017 +4 (no diff), 2016 -2 (made playoffs anyways), 2015 -9 (still won division but should've won 102). Get a +9 for once and things change drastically (ala the Rays in '08 who were +5 vs Jays that year -7, in a fair world the Jays make the playoffs instead by 1 adding to Cito's legend).

Ah well, enough on the speculation of the past. Lets look forward - a RH slugger who can DH (ideally mix in at 3B/1B and/or LF) is what the Jays want now. Bregman, Alonso obviously ideal but might be unrealistic as both want to go back home, others out there are Randal Grichuk (projected 100-109 wRC+), Justin Turner (90-108 range), Mark Canha (96-105), J.D. Martinez (101-107) and many others. To be honest, none of those guys seem interesting to me outside of a spring invite. Weird that Grichuk might be the best hitter left after the big 2 - he'd be useful as a 4th OF/DH possibly - had a 151 wRC+ vs LHP last year (nice), 121 lifetime. So he might work mixed at DH with Wagner handed some OF time to give our regulars a rest, etc. At this point of the winter he must be desperate for a contract too. Weird, never thought I'd think he would be good to bring back but here we are.

You need 6,7 or 8 SPs in a season. So we got that.

I don't think that any stats back then would have shown that either should have been considered the best or even 2nd best SP on the staff when they signed.

Morris pitched one of the greatest world series games in history the year before, and had shut down the Jays on his way there. Stewart was also a WS MVP, and had slapped the Jays around around in the playoffs in 92 & 89. There was definitely a sense that they, like Winfield & Molitor, were the polished pieces that would put the team over the top.

Grichuk is actually very solid against lefties. He's a very decent bench bat, assuming the manager knows when to pinch hit.

Maybe you folks are right. I might be letting the fact that I'm living through a terrible country music song (wife died/got laid/landlord wants me to move out without cause) affect my outlook. Perhaps I should view the signing as a beacon in an otherwise gloomy time.

That should read 'got laid off'. Talk about yer Freudian lingerie!

mathesond - I find looking at bright sides of things helps in dark times (wife died just over 10 years ago, leaving 4 daughters and me so lots of headaches in the recent past - felt a need to move due to an assortment of issues, could go on, lots of country music songs here). I hope you are getting help with those headaches in your life. Life can be rough, finding ways to bounce back and survive is critical. Part of what I love about baseball - so many stories of players doing that, bouncing back.

Accordingly to Bob Nightengale's latest piece in USA Today, Bregman is likely headed for one of three teams (Houston, Detroit, Boston), with the Cubs as a dark horse possibility if Bregman is willing to sign a short-term contract.

He also says Alonso is likely headed back to the NYM: "The Toronto Blue Jays really have been Alonso’s only serious suitor outside the Mets, and if Alonso really wanted to sign there, or anywhere else on a short-term deal, it likely would have happened already."

* According (not accordingly) … dang autocorrect

Mathesond: sorry to hear you are going through all of those things.

This is the FA crop at first next year:

Vlad
Goldy
Josh Naylor
Carlos Santana
Max Muncy
Wilmer Flores
Evan White

The Yankees and Mets have no one signed in 2026 to play 1B. I suspect the lack of Vlad extension is holding up Alonso's decision to return to Queens.

Wonder what the Jays are planning as plan 1, 2, 3, etc. right now?

1. Sign Bregman to be 3B, Vlad is still 1B, DH is mix match to give days off and Clement in infield, Lukes or whoever in OF
2. Sign Alonso to be 1B, Vlad at 3B, both get 20-40 DH games, Clement at 3B often, lots of mix/match situations to try to keep solid defense despite obvious issues - Schneider earns his pay this way
3. Clement 3B, Vlad 1B, find someone else (trade/whatever is left in FA) to be a RH bat in a semi-platoon at DH with Wagner or another kid (open spring battle for that slot between Wagner, Loperfido and whoever else)
4. Clement 3B, Vlad 1B, pray Wagner or Schneider or someone is ready to be DH.

Option 1 is expensive - 6 years, $28.5+ per year (he is reported as not wanting his average pay to go down from 2024).

Option 2 is also expensive - 3 years, $30 mil per is rumored to be what it'll take

Option 3 is probably cheap, I listed Randal Grichuk above as an option - should be available on a 1 year deal at this point for sub $10 mil.

Option 4 is basically free - uses what is here already, but lord knows if it will work.

I still like the trade route. 3B is biggest issue I think. The issue I have with Clement is that his value at 3B (good D) isn't really what the Jays need. Would much rather have an average fielder who's a better hitter even at same WAR. Neither Alonso (position) or Bregman (length and size of contract) are great fits for Toronto. Reds make a ton of sense for me. They have like 3 3Bman (Steer, Marte, CES). Maybe Jays can do something there.

Jays could get another corner Of too but Jays do have a lot of CO depth in minors so I think less needed.

I really don't see Bregman as realistic. Everything I read suggests he's even less inclined to play for Toronto than Alonso. The only thing keeping them in the conversation is Boras and leverage.

@mathesond: So sorry to hear about your great loss. Hope remembering all the good times you had together will help you through the tough times.

As for the job, I really did wonder about the "getting laid" problem.

@mathesond Sorry to hear about your sorrows. Hopefully you have good family/friends to help you through.

The rumors seem to suggest the Jays are the non-Houston team to offer Bregman 6 years (wouldn't shock me - they know they need to add years to get people). But those same ones say he wants $200 mil over those 6 years - $33 mil a year. Ouch. No way I'd go that far. Given the Jays spending this winter I'd suspect they are closer to 6/$150 ($25 mil per) which makes a lot more sense. They might be willing to make it 6/$200 where a chunk is deferred thus reducing present value to the $150 range.

For Alonso most feel it is purely a Jays vs Mets situation where he is using the Jays to get the Mets to pay more. He is in eyeshot of the Mets all-time HR record (Strawberry 252 vs Alonso 226 in 3rd behind Wright's 242) which I'm sure is a big draw, every player wants all-time records of some kind. If he comes here there is no chance of reaching Delgado's 336, especially if Vlad re-ups long term (then he'll claim that title at some point, currently #8 with 160, could get as high as #5 Joe Carter with 43 HR this year). Regardless, Alonso has 3/$70 on the table it seems, so that is the minimum to get him, I'm betting 3/$90 is what the Jays would need to offer with opt-outs mixed in.

"I'm living through a terrible country music song"

Ugh mathesond -- sorry to hear that about your wife and the shitstorm that followed. We live in a time with profound empathy deficit -- landlords/bosses/political will -- it sucks to be an actual human being sometimes. But you clearly still have a sense of humor -- and better than those replicants who are making life so hard.

Jays are reportedly offering just shy of $30M per year for Bregman. Not sure about referrals or opt outs... still hoping that doesn't happen. I've heard the Jays with the six-year offer for about a week now so I'm pretty sure it's legit... but Bregman has also been sitting on it for awhile.

The Astros apparently offered Bregman 6yrs/$156M early in the winter and it was turned down. If that offer still exists then I would imagine the Jays would have to go somewhere close to 6yrs/$180M to have a shot. Otherwise there are too many benefits for Bregman to stay where he is (familiarity, tax advantages, etc). I agree, it’s a contract that the team signing him will regret in a couple of years. Maybe the defense will remain effective enough to where he’s not as much of an albatross, especially if he can play multiple positions during that time, but a 6 year deal covers ages 31-36. It’s likely going to get ugly quick, especially if his decline phase actually began already.

Alonso is the better scenario to me, even if it means a lot of Vladdy at third. Shorter term, adds a dimension the team lacks (home runs), and multiple opt outs will keep him motivated.

Let's look at the last 2 3B the Jays imported...

• Josh Donaldson: age 29-32, MVP year 1, arguably better year 2 (higher OPS+), then injuries started age 31, collapsed age 32 and was dumped. Was damn good ages 33,35 decent at 36 (2.2 bWAR) but missed most of age 34. cliff dove at 37 (0.1 bWAR) and retired, not by choice.
• Matt Chapman: arrived age 29, stayed for 30, left. 3.6 and 4.4 bWAR, very solid. 7.1 for SF at 31 and now has a deal though age 37 at $25.17 mil a year

Other past Jay 3B...

• Troy Glaus: ages 29-30, 4.3, 3.3 bWAR, had 3 more years in him just good for 31 (4.4) then 0 net WAR over 32/33.
• Scott Rolen: ages 33-34 3.4, 3.9 bWAR (just 88 g here in year 2 before traded for EE). Solid at 35, OK at 36 (1.6 bWAR in 65 G), surviving at 37 but injuries just too much and retired.
• Edwin Encarnación: yes, he was a 3B when he came at age 26, but by 29 was a full time DH/1B, we all know how big he was here
• José Bautista: arrived at 27 as a 3B but quickly was moved to the OF where he thrived. MVP type up to age 34, then collapse at 35, just 1.5 bWAR from 35-37.
• Corey Koskie: came with such hope at 32, a 116 OPS+ lifetime, but only had 2 years left. 1.4 bWAR here, then dumped and 1.1 in Milwaukee (retirement home for old Jays) who paid the remaining $12 mil on his contract (phew).
• Eric Hinske: traded for when ready for majors at 24 with a ROY 4.0 performance. Here until 28 then dumped. Just 3.9 bWAR after his rookie season, 1.9 of that in year 2.
• Tony Batista: traded for at 25, did fantastic at SS so of course they moved him to 3B for Alex Gonzalez #1, TONS of power, no plate discipline. Dumped at 27, done at 33. 6.0 WAR here, 7.8 elsewhere.
• Tony Fernández: 1998/99 - was hitting 400 in June of 99, in Japan in 00. His age 36/37 were freaky good (over 6 WAR combined) but check the year and you might guess why. That 98 team had Canseco & Clemens on it after all.
• Ed Sprague: home grown - here ages 23-30, 5.8 total WAR. Never that good, but that HR in the WS will never be forgotten (he was worth 20.6% cWPA that series thanks entirely to that HR). He was an all-star at 31 for Pittsburgh despite being worth just 0.2 bWAR. Done at 33
• Kelly Gruber: rule 5 pick at 22, at 26 he became something special, 2 years of 5+ WAR, then a 4, then the neck issues. released after 92 at age 30, played at 31, tried a comeback at 35 but didn't get up to the majors again.
• Rance Mulliniks: came at 26 in what Gillick said was his most forgettable trade. 120's OPS+ often from 27-34 in a platoon role. kept kicking until 36 when he sat on the bench for the first Jays WS title.
• Garth Iorg: shared 3B with Mulliniks - never a good hitter outside of '85, just 3.5 bWAR lifetime, 72 OPS+, finished his career and the Jays season in '87 with a pathetic, sad, PA while many better hitters were on the bench at age 32.
• Danny Ainge - see NBA
• Roy Howell - damn good player, here at 23-26 9.3 bWAR, over 2 each year but never reached 3. Never had 2 in a season anywhere else. Done at 30. Very odd to be as good as he was as young as he was and still end so fast.

Funny, didn't intend to go through that many, but it just was too fun going through old memories. Yeah, I've been at games when Roy Howell played (May 19th, 1978 to be exact) and I was there for Tony Fernandez' final game when they put him on the level of excellence (still have the shirt somewhere). Generally these guys are done by 35/36, the only one to do well has a big * due to when it happened and how far out of the norm it was (Fernandez). Some HOF'ers had trouble too - George Brett final good year was at age 37 (4 WAR, under 1 after that), Wade Boggs final one was age 39 (2.0) but kept going to 41 to get 3000, Schmidt was MVP level at 37 (6+ WAR), OK at 38 (1.9), done at 39 (-0.4 retired mid-season refused to go to ASG despite winning fan vote saying he didn't deserve it).

So yeah, this is my very long winded way of saying a 3B being effective at 37 is rare and unlikely. 36 not likely either, outside of HOF level guys like Rolen, Brett, Boggs, Schmidt - it happens, but often they are really pulling all the stops to make it happen then. So a 6 year deal you are writing off the 6th year, 7+ years is a pure write off for years 7+.

Let's assume one of Bregman or Alonso are willing to take the Jays' money. Because they may very well have the high offer for both (but will only sign one), Boras (who reps both) won't allow a deal to be officially consummated until he has acceptable offers for both players. Otherwise, he loses leverage on whichever player doesn't agree first. It's not one player holding up the process, it's both.

As well, if the Jays do agree with Vladdy on an extension, it's in their best interests to wait on Alonso's decision before announcing. If they announce early, teams that are holding back in hopes of participating in Vladdy's FA could decide to jump back in on Alonso. Boras could also be trying to wait out the Vladdy contract deadline for the very same reason
..

Marc those are two brilliant points and insights. Sounds very plausible from Shapiro and Boras.

The funny thing is that I posted that same thought on Twitter/X and Mike Elias (Orioles GM), who has followed me for years going back to my FanGraphs days and his Astros days, liked my post... lol

Excellent points there Marc. The Jays seem to be working a lot with Boras - perhaps there is a bit of quid-pro-quo going on. Once Bregman and/or Alonso has a deal from a non-Jays source that they feel is good then things will start to happen. One signs elsewhere, the other with the Jays, the Jays then sign Vlad long term all within the next 2 weeks. Could happen. But hopefully the Jays have a backup plan set in case things fall apart quickly.

Read a rumor that the Jays are now into the Nolan Arenado sweepstakes but no idea how that could work out. He is signed for 25-27 for $74 mil (solid deal) for ages 34-36. The past 2 years he has been a 2 1/2 WAR player after hitting over 7 in '2 at age 31. Just a 101 OPS+ last year, but 'wow' defense. I'd be a bit nervous about him, but 3 years isn't too bad. But to get him to come here I'd think he'd insist on a 4th year being added (he has a full no-trade clause). He already rejected a Houston trade so coming here seems very unlikely but who knows? See my earlier post about how poorly players age in their mid 30's and you can see the massive risk involved. The Cards right now are in a dumping phase for the first time I can recall. Just 4 signed for over $15 mil a year, Arnenado, Sonny Grey ($65 mil for 25/26 plus 27 buyout), Willson Contreras (3 years $18 per) and Miles Mikolas (1 year $17.7 mil). Matz is the only other over $10 mil at $12.5 for 2025. Contreras is a damn good catcher - they'd be nuts to deal him but if they want to I'd be happy (he and Kirk could DH and C often). Grey would've been nice pre-Max but now would just make the rotation too crowded and I doubt StL wants to trade him unless they get a kings ransom for him.

Should be an interesting 2 weeks pre-spring training.

Congrats Marc, you made it to Reddit!
https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/s/MYh726SVqZ

Interesting viewpoint online - says Alonso would pay more in taxes in NY than in Toronto. Roughly $2.73 mil over a $70 mil contract. Basically there is no tax disadvantage in this case it seems. Unusual given the way things are normally reported, but interesting none-the-less.

Something is definitely holding up the Alonso market. By all accounts he has only two suitors, and neither of them are looking like they will change their valuation of him, so there's no reason to stall at this point. He's either willing to hold out until Spring Training on the hope that 1 or both teams significantly increase their offer (rather than move on entirely), or the Boras not wanting Pete to sign with the Jays until Bregman finds a deal theory might have some merit. If Alonso had a handful of teams in the running then I'd understand. No reason for this to take so long unless there's something we are missing.

I'll give the FO some credit here - it sure does sound like they have two legit high bids out there that the other teams don't want to match. this seems to be a legit effort.

Someone who spent time with Roki Sasaki during his MLB "job search" seems convinced the pitcher was not the driving force behind his move to the Dodgers.https://t.co/mxcDimpAnD

— Jim Allen (@JballAllen) January 31, 2025

Every year Boras has players who sign either in camp or after the season start. It no longer a novelty.

Interesting viewpoint online - says Alonso would pay more in taxes in NY than in Toronto. Roughly $2.73 mil over a $70 mil contract. Basically there is no tax disadvantage in this case it seems. Unusual given the way things are normally reported, but interesting none-the-less.

I was watching some of former Twins/Mets/As pitcher Trevor May's YT channel backlog the other day.

Someone asked him in his comments how much of the 15.5 mil/2 yr deal he took home that he signed with the Mets prior to the 2021 season as a RH reliever and a marginal SU type guy.

May responded that he took home just under 7 mil after taxes and agents fees.

I suppose it makes sense given what is known by regular working stiffs about salary at the highest tax brackets.

But it's still pretty shocking that the athlete only ever sees half of the big numbers that are thrown around daily.

If Shapiro has been able to persuade Rogers to spend at this level — spending close to 6/$180m on Bregman to complete the off-season — then it may be worth keeping him around in future seasons. Because the Blue Jays payroll is getting very high and they seem to keep pushing for more acquisitions.

honestly feels to me like this is more top-down from Ed than bottom-up from shapiro.

It has Keith Pelley's footprints all over it.

Very different from the days when AA had to ask players to chip in to cover Ervin Santana’s salary (and even then Santana signed elsewhere).

"feels to me like this is more top-down from Ed than bottom-up from shapiro"

That reminds me a bit of Rogers opening up the purse strings a few years after trying the JP/Moneyball approach when they signed Corey Koskie for the 2005 season. Whoever was the Globe & Mail sports columnist then (I think Stephen Brunt, but possibly Blair) claimed it was prompted by Ted Rogers - who had no real interest in sports - sailing with some of his buddies, when one of them asked "Why is your baseball team so crappy, Ted?" (This must have been 2004, which kind of defined "crappy.")

Koskie came (and went) that year, AJ Burnett & BJ Ryan were bigger free agent signings the next year.

yeah people forget just how filthy rich rogers is both as family and a corp. all of this is pocket change.

True enough Macleans says the Rogers family is worth $12.47B which is a heck of a lot. Cohen is at $21.5 billion and is the richest MLB owner. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/mlb-owners-net-worth.html has a list from 2021, no one other than those 2 were over $10 billion.

Perhaps Ed is trying to make the Jays great again.

Rogers stock is down 46% over the last few years.

For 2025 who has to make the team or be released (who is in danger of that)?

• No Options: Heineman, Nance,
• Final Option: Lukes, Jiménez, Francis, Orelvis Martinez, Barger, Clase
• 2 Options: Straw (NRI), Little, Loperfido, Berroa, Bloss, Macko
• 3 Options (full set): Wagner, Schneider, Sandlin,
• Special case: Yariel Rodríguez has a clause that makes sending him down not an option.

Everyone else is not on the 40 man thus not a factor right now.

Zack Pop has to make the team or can be cut.

I hope the Blue Jays are a good team this year. I’m going to need the occasional diversion from world events, especially those happening on our own continent.

Wonder if we’ll be hearing some US anthem boos at the RC.

"I’m going to need the occasional diversion from world events, especially those happening on our own continent."

This would really be a great year for a CAD team to win the World Series.

(Or maybe I should just say this would be a good year for a CAD team to be the one who loses to LA in the World Series.)

Crap - price of doing this at 3 AM I missed a lot of the pen. Now including NRI's.

• No Options: Heineman, Nance, Pop, Lovelady (NRI), Lauer (NRI), Stefanic (NRI), Ali Sánchez (NRI), Bethancourt (NRI)
• 1 Option: Lukes, Jiménez, Francis, Orelvis Martinez, Barger, Clase,Burr, Robertson, Walker
• 2 Options: Straw (NRI), Little, Loperfido, Berroa, Bloss, Macko, Lucas, Peterson, Kloffenstein (NRI)
• 3 Options: Wagner, Schneider, Sandlin, all NRI's not listed
• Special case: Yariel Rodríguez has a clause that makes sending him down not an option.

Every so often I click on a link and find myself on Twitter again without noticing at first. Then I go 'oh crap' and leave. But this time I saw something about Alonso and how Mets fans are certain he is coming back and how with him they are all great, without screwed. Now I really want him signing here just to piss them off.

Hopefully no booing at the RC, but it could be a quiet spring training.

I suspect the booing will depend on what happens between now and then. I suspect a lot fewer people will go to spring training from Canada than in the past. I know I stopped going to the states years ago and have zero interest in going ever again - I used to go for weekends and planned to do trips there once I moved here (London ON) as it is 2 hours to Detroit, 2 hours to Buffalo, 2 hours to Toronto so I could see lots of baseball easily. But that border is now a brick wall as far as I'm concerned.

Too much political risk here - back to baseball. If no Alonso or Bregman who do the Jays go for? Any opinions/ideas?

hopefully lots and lots of booing at the RC.

Wilner mentioned there were rumours of Bassit trade with signing of Scherzer to make budget room. I haven't seen anything but he also mentioned in the past the Vlad offer before it was in the news.

Apparently Bassitt is the one who got Scherzer to sign. They were the anchor of the Mets rotation a few years back.

I've also heard rumors of a Bassitt trade - with San Francisco being a possible destination before they signed Verlander.

I would be absolutely shocked if Bregman or Alonso came here now after the booing and the tariff wars, etc. That dream is probably dead.

Doncic trade makes me wonder if the Cardinals would let go of Jordan Walker. He looked like a star in August.

With the stuff currently going on, I would say the odds of a disruption (whether in spring training, the season, etc) has gone from 0 to somewhat greater than 0. And the odds of the Blue Jays (as "Canada's team") being barred from playing this season (or forever) have gone up significantly, at least into the single digit percentage points. The longer this drags on and the more it escalates, the more likely it is, IMHO. And be very glad if that's the worst of the damage.

There is no chance the Blue Jays are not allowed to play while all other teams are. 0.

bassitt being traded would make zero sense tbh.

Less than zero. I think the rumors follow the trade deadline when folks were expecting Bassitt to be traded because the Jays were not contending in 2025.

He's the 3rd starter and would have to be replaced if traded. Maybe they could do that by trading prospects for a starter but who would take Bassitt's salary at this point?

A Bassitt trade might have made sense if the Jays had signed Burnes or Fried. Maybe. Or if they trade for Cease now. But otherwise it would not be a terribly smart move. Mid-season is a different story. If the Jays are out of it in July then all bets are off and Bassitt, Vlad, Bo, Scherzer, Green, and Swanson are all on the table (free agents post 2025) = $102,500,000 in luxury tax ($109,883,333 in actual dollars) for a full season. For the final 1/3 of the season it equals $33,825,000 which is actually enough to get them back under the luxury tax threshold again should they do what they did in '24 and not have to pay any of the salary - they'd have roughly $7 million of space to play with. Crazy eh?

So basically right now the Jays are in a very good position for 2025 - if they contend, woohoo, if not they can dump and get lots of prospects again and avoid the payroll tax. Both paths have pluses and minuses. Contending is fun for us, and should get tons of cash for Rogers (TV revenue, gate, etc.) but also puts the team at risk of penalties in '26. Flopping sucks as we like to cheer on a winner, but it would restock a thin minor league system and probably push Rogers to dump Shapiro/Atkins post '25 which would make some people very, very happy.

I'm 100% in the camp of 'lets contend and figure it out later'. Ideally they sign Vlad long term (rumors are that a $450 mil deal is close to being signed) and say 'screw it' to the luxury tax.

2026's rotation will be interesting - Gausman, Berrios both signed already as is Yariel Rodriguez. Manoah and Francis are both in arbitration for 2026. So that is a 5 man rotation, but with obvious issues (Manoah health, Francis and Rodriguez who knows if they'll be effective, Gausman on his final year and in his mid-30's, Berrios could be on his final year as he has an opt-out post '26). Really hope the kids on the farm have a good year down there - Tiedemann, Macko, Rojas, Bloss, Yesavage - gotta figure at least one of them will be ready for a rotation slot in '26 right? But 1B/SS/pen could all need replacements too. Jimenez is possible at SS, 1B who knows? The pen is always a crapshoot and needs fixes every year - never assume a good year will be followed by another good one in the pen.

@dalimon5 All it would take is a baseball fan in Trump or Elon's buddy group that is mad the World Series went outside of the US in '92 and '93. You seriously underestimate the anger / resentment / revenge tour these guys are on.

Do you know the rules of the league? Toronto would have to contract or be sold or relocated. It's a private league by owners, Rogers being one of them. Trump and Musk don't have any power to force Americans where to work. WhT your suggesting is far beyond control of a president.

When it comes to US politics right now it is best to stay out of it unless you have some power over it. It seems Elon Musk is the real president and is doing whatever the heck he wants. Hopefully he enjoys baseball and won't touch it. They are all too busy destroying the US economy (and the world's as well) while figuring out how to maximize their own wealth via doing that.

But again, lets avoid the politics. Is there anyone in the Jays system right now who could take over for Vlad in '26 if needed? Riley Tirotta had a solid '24 (247/385/433 overall) and should be starting in Buffalo for '25 at age 26. This is his 5th year as a pro (signed out of college) and he has time at 3B (more innings/games than at 1B, barely) plus time at 2B/RF/LF. Rainer Nunez at 23 is younger, but was in AA all of 2024 (275/349/416) and last played 3B at age 17 so is a pure 1B/DH now. Hopefully will get lots of time in Buffalo this year to unlock his power (rated a 60 in '23) - a video of a great game is here. And that is about it for guys who caught my eye with a quick look at Jays 1B/DH at BR.

Yeah, the system is very thin at 1B, but of course, you can always move guys around to 1B fairly easily (see Vlad for an example). Plus 1B tend to not have a ton of value in the market (see Alonso who probably regrets not taking that long term deal a year ago).

Flaherty to Detroit. Maybe this makes them less likely to land Bergman?

Interesting deal - $25 mil for '25, $10 mil for '26 (opt out for Flaherty) that goes to $20 mil if he makes 15+ starts this year. He says he always wanted to be in Detroit (he was there before, and was traded away). Doubt that is enough to shift Detroit away from Bregman. After this deal it seems the Tigers are at (for CBT) $164.6 mil which is very far from the luxury tax (over $75 mil away). Their highest ever was $212 mil in 2016 (CBT payroll) so they have spent a LOT more than they are set to right now. Plus in the AL Central adding Bregman and Flaherty would make them big favorites I'd assume. FG has Jace Jung as their 3B right now (0.1 WAR last year in 94 PA as a 23 year old rookie, projected from 0.6 to 2.5 WAR for 2025, just one has him over 2 - ZiPS with an 88-104 wRC+) so the potential gain from Bregman is bigger for Detroit than for the Jays. If I was betting on it I'd bet on Bregman going to Detroit right now.

Do you know the rules of the league? Toronto would have to contract or be sold or relocated. It's a private league by owners, Rogers being one of them. Trump and Musk don't have any power to force Americans where to work. WhT your suggesting is far beyond control of a president.

I agree that the likelihood of any disruption for the Jays other than currency fluctuations (and perhaps FAs being leery) is very low, but it's not zero.

Cuban defectors like our very own Yariel Rodriguez have had to play black market immigration games for decades because of geopolitics.

Teams in Finland & Latvia had to fold and leave the Kontinental Hockey League in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine.

Obviously a kinetic war is a lot different than a childish tariff dispute by dummies on both sides.

But there is some precedent for politics affecting pro sports across international borders.

I don't see Bregman coming over.
In 2021, we had a deal with Brantley and he balked off and went back to Houston.
So, I don't think Springer has any influence on Bregman, either.
Springer just took the best deal available and called it a day.
That's not good enough for Bregman.

Americans professional athletes are leaning on the right heavily.
We saw that with Bass who ended his career for ideological ideas.
Bregman is from New Mexico. Canada is not likely to appeal to him.

Alonso if from Florida and has only played in New York.
That's a bit more relatable, but he's played in the NL and hasn't crossed the border much.
He's only been in Toronto once for a 3 game series.

I think it makes more sense to focus on Latino players like Santander.
They are more likely to sign a reasonable contract and they're probably more open to playing in Canada.
Extending Vlad would only help on that front.

Or we can assume nothing and remove stereotypes like how we all don't know baseball, live in igloos and drink maple syrup (to some). There's examples everywhere to prove any stereotype you want.

Alonso and Bregman may land back with their old teams just because they want familiarity and liked playing in those cities. The more it drags out, the more likely that this will happen. I wouldn't be opposed to a Randal Grischuk reunion as a 4th outfielder.

John, how many times are you going to subject us to your political views, only to immediately say after some version of "enough with the politics"?

here here ... in the most positive way possible. Love everybody's contributions on this site.

My last word on the subject (unless conditions change, obviously). Mlb has a congressional anti-trust exemption that other leagues don't have. Congress has used this for the Mitchell (steroids) report, etc.  They actually have a stronger influence / control over baseball specifically.

The Congress and the Senate, not the president.
The president can't sign decrees affecting MLB.

Bassitt is from Ohio.
Springer is from Connecticut.
Gausman is from Colorado. He grew up in the shadow of Halladay and spent his first 6 years in the division.


There's not a lot of precedent for signing a top free agent from the red states.
I don't think it's a coincidence.

New Mexico is a blue state the last two elections...

Jays have signed lots of players from all over the continent and world. BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett, Vernon Wells are all from "Red States," as if every person in one place is the same.

We don't know which factors will determine a decision but logically speaking, its unlikely to be one generic label of type that determines a decision like that. Josh Donaldson is from Florida, his wife is from Toronto I think. You get the idea.

To be honest I doubt red state, blue state makes one iota of difference for free agents. They all follow the green first, then go for personal preference (ie: live close to home, family, staying where they've played or always wanted to play). I have no clue where 99% of American players are from, nor do I give a damn. I recall one free agent who said his wife kept him from signing here - Storm Davis as his wife panicked over the Montreal Massacre and how everyone was speaking French (the killing of innocent women, no big deal, but people speaking French? Can't have that). Lucky for the Jays as he had just 5 years left in his career with a total of 2.9 bWAR 21-34 record (back when that was what many cared about), 92 ERA+ (his ERA never looked that good).

As to recent signings (2020-now) ignoring guys from outside the USA you get - Blue: IKF Hawaii, Turner California, Clement NY, Hoffman NY Yates Hawaii, Springer Connecticut, Semien California, Gausman Colorado; Red: Kiermaier Indiana, Belt Texas, Bassitt Ohio. Clearly Rejected by Ohtani, Soto, Sasaki (all non-US). Non-US signed: Ryu, Santander. So more blue than red states, but it doesn't appear to be a real pattern imo. The big rejections were all non-Americans (thus red/blue irrelevant) unless I'm forgetting someone who signed elsewhere that the Jays were clearly chasing hard after. Alonso is from Florida (ruby red right now, but was swing until the past decade or so), Bregman New Mexico (blue, never voted for Trump) for what that is worth. IMO nothing, but worth checking just to see if there was anything to it (just because I don't expect anything doesn't mean it isn't there).

In the 80's the Jays were often seen as odd due to the border, but post 92/93 they were just another team to most players (see Winfield, Molitor, Morris, etc. all signing here and later on Roger Clemens and others). Just checked and Clemens was from Texas. Yeah, the Jays should've built up that Dominican pipeline a LOT more back then (Ash and Interbrew blew it), but they didn't. Now is a good time to rebuild it and/or another one from other nations. Take advantage of the political situation to get non-American players at younger ages - why not leverage every advantage you got? It'd be interesting to know if IFA see any issues with signing with certain teams. Doubt there is a practical way to find out. As always #1 is the cash - who pays most. #2 is opportunity (for the kids signing as IFA). Then way down the list comes which team it is/where it is. Unless, of course, you are someone like Sasaki who is being courted by all teams and can take whatever cash he wants up to the max allowed.

I will try harder to refrain from adding my POV to political crap that keeps flowing into here. We all need to try harder on that. I added in new topics to try to get people back into Jay mode but it seems few want to discuss the rotation's future, the options outside of Alonso/Bregman, what kids might break through in 2025, or anything else lately.

Anyways, CAL/NY seem to be kicking the asses of TEX/FLA in terms of player additions in all sports right now.

Checking populations - right now roughly (did basic rounding) Florida 22 mil, Texas 30 mil, California 39 mil, NY 20 mil. So NY/Calif > Florida/Texas for population overall. Who knows how the hurricanes that regularly hit Florida and Texas affect things (I'd guess many non-MLB owned/managed fields are destroyed and not repaired right away). Now, the fires in Cali might affect them for the future thus cutting things down a bit.

If you bundle top players with guys in minor contract, it doesn't mean anything.
The Jays have as many players as the other teams and draft as many as they are entitled to draft.
AA had a huge issue with getting draft picks to sign, but that was an other era. 
Springer does endorsements. Bichette doesn't. Guerrero does but his lack of English limits him.

It feels the Jays should build the Cuban pipeline.
It should be possible to sign players in Cuba directly.
The issue is probably that the independent leagues also play across the border.

“MLB Fires Umpire Pat Hoberg For Violation Of Gambling Policy” (MLBTR)

More evidence that gambling is becoming a significant problem in professional sports. There are so many opportunities for corruption.

Too bad for Hoberg to blow his career on something like that.

He was the only umpire to ever call a perfect game (all balls and strikes called properly).

PECOTA Projections:
NYY 89.7
BAL 89.2
TOR 84.5
TB 81.9
BOS 77.6

https://x.com/TodayJays/status/1886485340493353147

That puts the Jays playoffs odds at 49%.

I'm still hoping that Alonso signs with the Blue Jays. I'm not that keen on Bregman. Schoenfeld highlights some of the concerns surrounding Bregman (age, trends in his offensive profile, overall decline in his athleticism).

I think I would rather see Alonso on a 3-4 deal than Bregman on a 6-7 year deal.

Neither player is ideal, though, and as Marc suggested, it may be unlikely that either player ends up in Toronto in any event.

This is interesting. PECOTA 2025 vs 2024 sees almost a 4 win drop for the Blue Jays. I guess they see Bo not rebounding and Vlad cooling off.

They rank the Jays about a game worse than Seattle who has missed the playoffs by 1 game the last 2 years.

Are the PECOTA projections reasonably accurate? I fully expect their projections to be better than mine because mine are usually quite wrong. IMO this can be tested if we could find the PECOTA projections for the last 5 years for example.

Sorry but after reading the 2023 and 2024 PECOTA projections I realized that they were guessing/speculating because their projections were quite wrong. Basically it is more off season nonsense. I did not say BS out of respect for people that put faith in these projections.

I agree.

I actually didn't know Baseball Prospectus was still a thing. I've never been a fan of computerized projections and have never seen any proof they're more accurate than an in-tuned analyst. They're projection for 2024, which I just looked up, was not good. But then I was the only person that said Toronto was a fifth-place team (twitter repeatedly told me I was an idiot lol).

The lack of news about Pete tells me the decision has probably been locked in for at least a week. It's likely either Toronto or New York. Sounds like Bregman should decide hopefully by end of week, which will then allow for the Alonso news to be announced. And Scherzer... the fact that Scherzer hasn't been announced has me favoring Alonso to Toronto FWIW.

I'm also hearing $480-$500M for Vladdy, just not sure on the length. Good chance it gets done by the deadline.

Projections and analysts are often wrong.

The one thing projections have going for them is that they're 100% unbiased.

Also a good hedge against the error bars in any projection is to combine multiple projections.

But they will still often be wrong, because players often over or under perform their expected level.

That's sports. That's life.

I see projections as reasonable guesses. I figure the experts will do a better job than I will at it so I use theirs to guesstimate what to expect in 2025. Combining multiple to get a range seems reasonable - if everyone thinks the Jays are a 85-90 win team then odds are they'll be close to that, if the range is 75-80 then odds are that is where they'll be. However, every year there are injuries and unexpected surprises - good like Schneider in '23, bad like Bo in '24 (when healthy). We can just hope the Jays get lots of good surprises in '25.

One thing that makes me a bit nervous for 2025 is that the Blue Jays are a fairly old team (in terms of the veterans they’re counting on, especially in the starting pitching department).

Also the outfield could be weak if Varsho needs the year to fully recover from his shoulder injury.

On the plus side, the team has pretty good position player depth with guys like Jimenez, Clement, Loperfido, Wagner, Barger, Roden, etc.

Thanks for the update Marc. If that bears fruit then what are you hesring or have heard about Bo? Would he stay with Alonso, Scherzer and Vlad all onboard?

Speaking of combining multiple projections, Fangraphs finally has added the full Zips projections in with the Steamer Projections to make their Depth Chart projections.

The Jays' 44.6 projected WAR sits 11th MLB, 7th AL, and 3rd ALE.

* 1. NYY 49.7 (#3)
* 2. BAL 47.7 (#4)
* 3. TOR 44.6 (#11)
* 4. BOS 42.5 (#14)
* 5. TBR 41.5 (#15)

Does ZIPS include all the off-season acquisitions including Scherzer?

The ZIPS projections don't seem to account for playing time in a reasonable way - Berrios 29 starts, Gausman 28, Bassitt 27, Tiedemann 25, Bloss 23, Wallace 22, Harrison 22 - if any of those last 4 are right I'd be 100% shocked, plus Berrios has had exactly 32 starts in 2021-2024 each year. So just straight adding the WAR is not anywhere near accurate.

Scherzer was not included either. He is still listed as blank for team in the projections (probably because the deal isn't 100% official yet) 1.7 WAR over 20 starts 107 IP though.

Thanks, John.

Fangraphs piece on which teams would be most helped by the addition of Bregman:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bregging-the-question/

one of the good things about fangraphs is how quickly they update.

Scherzer was updated on to the jays' depth charts within minutes of him signing.

John - you can find Scherzer's zips projections on his player page and on the Texas zips projections.

And you are right that zips never tries to predict playing time.

Fangraphs Depth Charts does try to predict playing time tho, simply using their own expertise and knowledge, so it will adjust both the Zips and Steamer projections to their educated non-computer playing time predictions.


you can find the depth chart projectios here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14



for our SP they've predicted this playing time:


* Gausman 192ip, 3.78era, 3.1war
* Bassitt 177ip, 4.09era, 2.0war
* Berrios 194ip, 4.18era, 1.9war
* Scherzer 116ip, 3.76era, 1.9war
* Francis 147ip, 4.34era, 1.5war
* Rodriguez 52ip, 3.98era, 0.7war
* Bloss 23ip, 4.73era, 0.1war
* Manoah 9ip, 4.13era, 0.1war
* Macko 8ip, 4.38era, 0.1war

During his address at the team's annual media luncheon, Dana Brown twice spoke about Alex Bregman in the past tense, saying once that the team "lost Bregman."

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) February 4, 2025

On the plus side, the team has pretty good position player depth with guys like Jimenez, Clement, Loperfido, Wagner, Barger, Roden, etc

A little surprising that from all the tweener types on the roster and the upper minors, only Horwitz has been shipped out to exchange surplus depth for other positions of need like Gimenez and Sandlin.

The Jays have too many guys without a position or without a clear opportunity on to make the roster. Also a lot of guys 25+ who are ageing out of prospect status and option years.

The FO seemed to use a "Best Player Available" philosophy last deadline in converting expiring contracts into future assets. But it resulted in an entire haul of marginal position player AAAA types and prospects that likely project to be average MLB regulars at their high end.

The other half of choosing talent over need in both the draft and in trades is that you have to be bold and willing to convert the surplus depth into other useful things. Instead of simply hoarding marginal assets that depreciate quickly if they don't perform immediately or are lost for little to no return as they fall off the back of your 26 & 40 man roster.

Fangraphs Depth Chart combined projections for our hitters.

I've as usual added in a war/650pa pace stat because i like it.

I've also sorted it into two full lineups plus a bench, because we've got so many interesting depth options. Some of these guys aren't actually projected to get any playing time by Fangraphs, because it's unlikely that all of them do, but I do think that any of these guys could earn themselves playing time this year if they play well.



* SS Bichette (27): 616pa, 116wrc+, 3.6war, 3.8war/650
* DH Wagner (26): 336pa, 116wrc+, 1.1war, 2.1war/650
* 1B Guerrero (26): 672pa, 152wrc+, 4.8war, 4.6war/650
* LF Santander (30): 672pa, 126wrc+, 3.2war, 3.1war/650
* C Alejandro (26): 436pa, 114wrc+, 3.9war, 5.8war/650
* RF Springer (35): 616pa, 108wrc+, 2.0war, 2.1war/650
* 2B Gimenez (26): 637pa, 106wrc+, 4.1war, 4.2war/650
* 3B Clement (29): 343pa, 98wrc+, 1.5war, 2.8war/650
* CF Varsho (28): 567pa, 102wrc+, 2.6war, 3.0war/650

* RF Lukes (30): 112pa, 106wrc+, 0.4war, 2.3war/650
* 3B Stefanic (29): 0pa, 109wrc+
* LF Roden (25): 28pa, 109wrc+
* DH Schneider (26): 217pa, 107wrc+, 0.6war, 1.8war/650
* 1B Barger (25): 196pa, 105wrc+, 0.7war, 2.3war/650
* SS Jimenez (24): 77pa, 103wrc+, 0.3war, 2.5war/650
* CF Loperfido (26): 161pa, 91wrc+, 0.2war, 0.8war/650
* 2B Martinez (23): 210pa, 94wrc+, 0.4war, 1.2war/650
* C Heineman (34): 141pa, 76wrc+, 0.6war, 2.8war/650

* OF Clase (23): 35pa, 87wrc+
* OF Berroa (26): 7pa, 86wrc+
* IF Kasevich (24): 0pa, 84wrc+
* C Bethancourt (33): 77pa, 85wrc+, 0.3war, 2.5war/650

I'm not sure the addition of better talent around him and a long-term deal for Vladdy would be enough for Bo, but it might be. Either way, I expect him to test free agency.

Even before that nugget on Bregman and the Astros, the tea leaves were suggesting to me that it's down to 1. Cubs, 2. Tigers, 3. Red Sox.

But I also wouldn't be surprised if they got the physicals done before announcing the two deals publicly.

The FanGraphs piece on Bregman was quite interesting - KC gains 14.6% on their odds of making the playoffs, down to the White Sox going from 0.0% to 0.1% odds (would love to see that 1 in a 1000 time they make it with him). The Jays grow from 40.7% to 47.9%, a 7.2% gain. 11 teams gain less, 18 gain more. Detroit gains the 2nd most at 12.4% so clearly their interest should be a lot higher than the Jays interest, plus they are a mile away from being hit with the payroll tax. The Cubs gain far less than the Jays at 3.6%, Astros (8.2%), Red Sox (10.8%) are the other teams looking at him.

Basically I'd say the Tigers and Red Sox should be the favorites but the Red Sox appear to have a cheap owner right now so I'm betting on the Tigers. Then we hope to get the entertainment of the Jays getting Alonso which will lead to tons of 3B time for Vlad in 2024 and maybe beyond.

I must admit, I never imagined Bichette could be a replacement player.
I, however, was projecting Tampa and Boston to be no better than .500 teams.

Grichuk to AZ.

I don't think he qualifies as a headline or warrants a post here on da Batters Box.

tongue/cheek

He had an excellent 2024, so credit to him (and the Arizona coaches?) for that.

Petersen DFAed for Mad Max.

Grichuk was one of many 'might as well' options - guys who could fill a role here if needed. At just $5 mil ($2 mil this year, $3 mil buyout on a $5 mil mutual option for 2026) he wasn't that expensive. Seems Arizona is a good place for ex-Jays with him, Gurriel Jr, and Moreno all there now.

Latest rumors at MLBTR is that Boston is now chasing Arenado as they don't want to go to 6 years for Bregman. Arenado is entering his age 34 season though and has had 2 years of wRC+ in the 100-110 range, a valuable player but not the $25 mil level he will be paid at ($74 mil for 3 years, ages 34-35-36) and odds are he'll ask for another year to be tacked on or for the 3rd year to be increased in value (full no-trade clause).

IMO the Jays are down to Alonso, Bregman, or just go with what they got. Hopefully those 2 sign somewhere soon so things can be settled pre-spring training. Also hoping Vlad signs as the rumor mill is nutty on him (Jays to meet his $450 mil demand, he has rejected their final offer, he will sign, he won't, he will be traded, etc.) so it'll be nice when spring starts so we can get past that one way or the other. Can't see a trade unless someone makes an insane offer pre-mid-season if the Jays are out of it. If they are in it then he will stay all of 2025 no matter what.

Michael Petersen designated for assignment as the Max deal is now complete (he passed his physical).

So the FA tracker at FG shows the Jays this winter so far have gotten an OF (power), a starter, 2 relievers, and a catcher.

Projected WAR (FG) has Santander #2 for OF (Soto #1), Bethancourt 10th among C (#5 Yasmani Grandal and #8 James McCann are still out there), Hoffman #1 among RP, Garcia #8 (#5 David Robertson still out there). Max Scherzer #11 for SP (#7 Nick Pivetta still out there).

Just 3 guys left projected to be worth 2+ WAR in '25 - Alex Bregman, Nick Pivetta, and Pete Alonso. The best projected LHR is Jalen Beeks but he isn't that exciting. Few are at this stage of the winter. At this point I'd look at Ryan Yarbrough if the Jays feel they need one more reliever from the left side, but I doubt they feel that strongly about it. Vlad and Alonso are their focus (with some on Bregman) I figure right now. Odds are they are looking for trade possibilities too but I don't see much on that front, although if the Red Sox get Bregman or Arenado they might be dumping Masataka Yoshida who would be an interesting one for the DH/LF mix - he could be a decent later middle of the order bat (#5/6 area).

Kiley McDaniel .. cut the check for Vladdy

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/the-jd-bunkis-podcast/jays-farm-report-and-why-vladdy-is-a-great-bet-w-kiley-mcdaniel-is-this-an-all-in-season-for-the-leafs-w-frank-seravalli/

Héctor Gómez@hgomez27 · 4h
The wait will soon be over...

Hubble@Hxbble · 10h
Day 93 of posting Vladimir Guerrero Jr until the Blue Jays sign him to an extension

Shi's recent Sportsnet article suggests the Blue Jays may be done making off-season moves:

"Max Scherzer and the Toronto Blue Jays finalized their $15.5-million, one-year contract Tuesday night, the formal addition of the three-time Cy Young Award winner crossing off the last item from the club’s winter to-do list.

"While further moves remain possible – and the Blue Jays are looking to be opportunistic if markets develop their way – their roster picture is somewhat clearer now that Scherzer is set to join the rotation."

A Vladdy extension in the next week or two seems plausible to me. A Bregman or Alonso addition less so (but not out of the realm of possibility).

A Vladdy extension makes any further move less important, IMO. Obviously maximizing 2025 wins is a good thing regardless, so if someone like Alonso falls on your lap then do it, but knowing Vladdy is going to be on the roster for 10+ years would lessen the pressure for further 2025 investment dramatically. It no longer makes 2025 do or die with this group, so they can sign Alonso/Bregman or go internal, and either direction would be sensible in that scenario. Without a Vladdy extension, they need Alonso/Bregman.

I somewhat agree with that mindset — but only up to a point. Vladdy’s remaining peak seasons will be around 2025-2030. 2025 may be the best chance the team has in the next few years (if not longer) to be good, so they should maximize their chances of making and advancing in the postseason this year.

This reporting becoming prevalent is irresponsible. "This might happen if this and this happens but also it may not happen at all if nobody wants it to." It's a nonsense style born out of fact checking which happens easier now when reporters and journalists post bite-sized items to X which is easy for public to criticize if wrong. I noticed since the Ohtani fiasco with JP Morosi nobody wants to say anything that can be wrong so they all end up saying nothing.

Shi Davidi has always been wishy washy in his hits but he's really tumbled this year. First by reporting that there was a self imposed hard cap on budget, then saying they wouldn't sign Santander (i think) then saying Alonso is likely not coming to Toronto (news is Toronto has offer out to Alonso by credible sources). Now he is saying they are done unless they aren't. Really no different than Hector Gomez other than writing an essay.

BA Farm System Rankings

1 BOS
6 TB
17 BALT
23 TOR
25 NYY

checking Milb transactions

SS Elaineiker Coronado assigned to DSL Blue Jays 2.

have Jays added a second DSL team?

What is the hold up with Alonso, Bregman and Vladdy? Players start reporting in a week.

"I somewhat agree with that mindset — but only up to a point. Vladdy’s remaining peak seasons will be around 2025-2030. 2025 may be the best chance the team has in the next few years (if not longer) to be good, so they should maximize their chances of making and advancing in the postseason this year."


With a Vladdy extension, I think the team is better off trying to find another Gimenez trade rather than signing Alonso or Bregman. Even acknowledging that maybe 2025 could be their best short-term chance, I think the more sensible approach if you know Vladdy is sticking around is trying to find him more long-term running mates. Without a Vladdy extension, I'm going all in on Alonso or Bregman to make sure 2025 maximizes the one year of contention the team has left. Either way, a Vladdy extension changes the perception of this team moving forward. There won't be the same level of urgency for 2025 success, so if Alonso falls on your lap, then it's a luxury and not a necessity.

I agree with SK. With a Vladdy extension, it extends the Jays window so it makes more sense to have 2,3,5 (but not 4!) years ahead in mind. Even now, I'd rather a trade than Alonso or Bregman.

choosing not to add an Alonso or Bregman would just be the same thing they've done for the last 10yrs - just enough to be good, never willing to take the risk to be great.

Honestly. I'd rather the money to sign Bregman for 6 years go toward Vlad's extension. If the Jays can afford either Alonso or Bregman and a Vlad extension, that's fine, but I'd rather keep a home-grown star than invest in an older player on the decline.

Impressive that Boston has the #1 farm system in MLB after trading multiple prospects for Crochet.

It's entirely possible for the FO to sign Bregman or Alonso while extending Vlad and maybe even Bo while bringing the payroll below tax threshold by 2027.

next year - Bassitt, Bo and Scherzer removed = 54,500,000
year after - Gausman, Springer and Green removed = 57,500,000

That's 115 million off the books. Increasing Vlad's salary from 28.5 to 40 million and ... there is still plenty of room (let's say 100 million+) before arb increases.

yeah that's an important point. most of the current committments aren't longterm.

*112

The pitchers will have to be replaced.
Would you replace Bassitt by Bregman this year?
Should we go without Gausman and his equivalent for the next 6 years so we can pay all that money to a declining Bregman? 

Extending Vladdy is not an issue because he's not over 30.
I think we'll have more of the type of trades that brought Berrios and Chapman over in the next few years.
That's better than overpaying for guys that nobody else want.

Bassitt stunk last year for a guy with his salary so yes, I would replace him with Bregman this year.

It would be phenomenal if the Jays could land Bregman like they did Semien.

Meh. They didn't have enough pitching and missed the playoffs that year. They can add a DH later if nobody steps up.

After 2025: Bo, Bassitt, Scherzer, Green, Swanson

After 2026: Springer, Kirk, Varsho, Gausman, Berrios (player option), Garcia, Straw

So they will have plenty of payroll room in the next 1-2 years even if they extend Vladdy, but they'll also need to replace quite a few spots and not many of them have internal options at the moment. They will still have to be smart with how they use the payroll space, and obviously they need some good health (Manoah, Tiedemann, etc) and development. I'd avoid Bregman on a 6 year deal. Alonso on a 2-3 year deal with opt-outs sounds more reasonable, though as I said I hope there's a trade for a younger, more controllable piece. Someone like Luis Robert, even with the performance/health risk involved with him, would be an ideal pickup.

never seen a fanbase so against adding good players just for money.

Alonso just signed with the Mets.

Alonso back to the Mets

Kind of interesting that the Jays only climbed one ranking in the 2024 v 2025 BA farm rankings despite selling off all their rentals at the deadline for new blood.

Not that many graduations other than Horwitz (and Zulueta being lost to waivers).

I suppose the bad luck wrt to TJS injuries to almost all of the Jays higher ranked pitching prospects counteracted some of the new marginal position player talent coming into the system through selling off veterans.

Really makes one wonder just how many ranks the system might've fallen in the event that the Jays had decided and failed to go-all in at the deadline last year and either stood pat or traded some prospects for rental help.

$30m for 1yr plus a $24m player option.

With the contract Alonso got, I think the Jays interest may have been overblown. For a Boras client that’s a lot less than I would have expected, which might signify that interest elsewhere just wasn’t there.

I am pretty sure Jays beat that offer but also felt like Alonso just never really wanted to leave NY. Bregman, I also think doesn't want to come to Toronto and has more suiters than Alonso. Looks like trade market is best fit. I think there are a ton of guys potentially available at different costs/talent but Jays do need to add one more bat.

Other than bregman i don't think there's a bat worth adding at this point. Give the internal options the chance now, like we should have last year instead of adding mediocre free agent bats.

Mets are still in a good position to chase Vlad with this deal.

Agreed that the Jays probably beat the offer, but I'm not surprised he chose to stay in NY. He can be their all-time HR king for a bit next year, at least until Soto beats him in a few years. As to the Jays, it is probably best to go the trade route and to focus on signing Vlad. Bregman would be nice for '25 and '26, but I see disaster potential all over him after that.

Finding a solid bat to DH would be good now but where from and at what cost? Wouldn't be surprised if they go sign one of the better relievers now to try to up the pitching and hope the kids can hit.

The pen is pretty much done. They could use another lefty, but one with options.

Little is the lefty with options. What they need is a higher leverage lefty.

If MLB is going to adopt a salary cap sometime in the next few years, that might be an argument for the Blue Jays to sign Bergman now and go for a high-payroll competitive team now, while they still can.

The only way they get a cap is if they do an NHL - take a full season or two off. In which case I'll lose all interest in MLB as will millions of others.

NHLPA was really dumb to hold out that long. It was always worth it to NHL owners to miss a season to get a cap, even if it was painful. Payrolls were far too high as a percentage of revenue and rising fast.

Thing is in MLB i don't think payrolls are out of whack with revenues yet, so it's not in the owners' financial interests to shut down the league until they get a cap.

Imagine looking at baseball and thinking the issue is the few teams spending a lot and not the 20 teams who don't bother trying.

If Jays don't get Bregman, not much on hitting side that is exciting. I wouldn't mind Austin Hays though or even JD Martinez. They absolutely murder LHP. Jays are not a very splitty team but it can be an advantage to have a guy with a 139/95 WRC+ split than someone who is 104/108 or something. I like Hays more because he can play OF and I don't think there'd be much temptation to play him vs RHP the way I'd be worried Schneider would want to play Martinez.

Austin Hays is a Red and Martinez is a pro pickleballer (or trying to be).

There are still trade options out there with teams that want to shed salary.

Lane Thomas
Luis Robert
Ryan Helsley

For the bullpen there isn't much left on the free agent market, especially from the left side. I'd prefer they bring Yarbrough back or signJalen Beeks as added depth against one or two starters going down. Matt Moore combined with Pete Walker could be interesting. David Robertson is only "plus" guy available but it a righty. At that point just trade for Helsley with your depth players and try to match up your bullpen against the Yankees.

If the Jays can get another bat like Bregman, Robert or Thomas, resign Vlad and add one more bullpen piece then this will be an A+ off season and make it much easier for the player development side to better develop players and recover the system over the next few years.

Fully on board with trading for Luis Robert. I think he's the perfect fit with an extended (hopefully) Vladdy plus Gimenez and Santander. More controllable high upside talent closer to Vladdy's age is ideal. I can't see why the White Sox would sell this low on him, but they also have no reason to keep him considering how far away they are from competing, so who knows.

But I agree, other than Bregman, I'd probably avoid the FA market altogether. No needle movers after him.

Robert seems very risky at this point. He would be fine to add if the asking price is low. I imagine the White Sox will want to see if he can rebuild some trade value in 2025 before they move him.

27 year old with an 8 million dollar cap his and 15 million contract with two club options. In his only season in which he played more than 100 games he was a 5 WAR player. There's certainly risk but most of that comes from an injured 2024 season when he played on one of the worst baseball teams in history.

Interesting ideas there dalimon5

• Lane Thomas: at 27 had a 3.3 WAR year, 3.1 total lifetime otherwise, plays all 3 OF positions, final year pre-free agency, Just a 99 wRC+ last year, 110 his peak year, projections are 98-108 at age 29. Cleveland has him right now, $7.8 mil is a bit high for that cheapskate team (4th highest pay). Bats right, 146 wRC+ vs LHP, 82 vs RHP. Lifetime 140-87 split. Ideal for a platoon with Wagner at DH - use in OF as needed.
• Luis Robert: a year ago not available with a 128 wRC+ in CF, now after an 84 on the biggest losers post 1899... Just entering his age 27 season owed $15 mil in '25, $2 mil buyout for his $20 mil '26 option, $20 mil '27 option (same buyout). Projected 104-117 wRC+, a positive on DRS in CF - IMO it'd be foolish not to kick tires here but the ChiSox should be after a lot to give him up, but they are a terribly run team (you don't lose 121 by accident) so who knows?
• Ryan Helsley: a solid multi-inning reliever getting $8.2 mil in his final pre-FA year. Right handed, not a perfect fit but would be nice.

Read on a click bait blog that Cal Quantrill might be interested in relieving at this point (he is still floating in free agency) and if he'd come cheap (has to be now) I'd certainly knock on the door. He has been a decent starter at times, but never a 'wow' despite some hype. Peak of 2.1 fWAR in '22. Maybe he can find the magic his dad did in the pen. If he will take a NRI and minor league contract I say why not?

It sounds as if Bregman has yet to make a decision. He wants a 6-7 year contract (per Nightengale). Now that he’s the top remaining FA, he’ll probably wait and see whether a bidding war emerges in the next few days. Will Toronto up its offer to seven years and big dollars (no doubt with some of that money deferred)? We should find out fairly soon.

I hope wherever he signs that it blow up in his face and he gets a humble serving of Peter Morgan Alonso pie.

Interesting to see Lane Thomas, an original TOR 5th round pick out of HS in 2014, is still around at 29 a decade later and has beat the odds appearing in 561 MLB games so far.

I recall being disappointed at the time that the Jays seemingly gave up on him to trade him away for INTL bonus pool room from the Cardinals right before the July 2017 signing announcements.

Looking back at his minor league numbers with the Jays, he really didn't do that well offensively at least wrt slash lines in some tough minor league offensive environments in Lansing and Dunedin.

The 2017 headliner INTL signings for the Jays were Eric Pardinho out of Brazil, Miguel Hiraldo (released last year from AA at age 23, made some Box lists), Alejandro Melean (released last spring after putting up 7 ERA at AA as a reliever in 18 innings at 23) and Leo Jimenez.

Pardinho re-signed on a minor league deal this offseason IIRC after reaching minor league FA, so the 2017 pool and the Lane Thomas trade weren't all for naught yet.

Leo Jimenez and his out-of-options quest to make the 26-man roster as the utility man is about all that's left of that class.

Jimenez is not out of minor league options... he was granted a fourth one earlier in the offseason.

Marc, any more rumblings about a Vladdy extension?

Yes do tell...

I stopped visiting click bait links about 10 days ago and constantly refresh BB for real updates and I feel much better this way.

BB broke the Scherzer signing for me.

BB broke the Alonso signing for me.

Lane Thomas was a Blue Jays development mistake. They tried to make him a 2B in Vancouver. It was painful to watch and it was obvious very quickly that, while he was very athletic, he wasn't athletically suited to 2B. It was a complete bust with a player who, just as obviously, has something to offer at the plate.

Didn't realize Jimenez had that additional option, that's huge. Unfortunately it does make it more likely he's in AAA to start the year to get more at-bats.

I get why Jays tried 2B with Thomas. He didn't look like he was going to be a good enough hitter to make it as an OF. WRC+ of 106 and 105 in A and high A. Just no pop. Went to Cards and they/he unlocked his power and he became a real prospect. Anyway, Jays traded him in 2017. He had 0 2B appearances in that year and only 10 in 2016 and only 55 appearance at 2B total over 3 years and only 18 above low A so Jays abandoned that pretty quickly.

Yoán Moncada is off the table, signed for $5 mil with the Angels. At 24 he had a 5.1 bWAR season for ChiSox, then 2020 hit, and in '21 he was a 4.0 - so looking damn good at just 26, but lots of injuries and in the 3 years since just 1.8 bWAR in 208 games with an 89 OPS+. Ugh. But if healthy he has that potential still at age 30. Not a bad risk for a team going nowhere like the Angels, but really didn't make much sense here unless the Jays felt positive he was about to regain that top form or were totally desperate at 3B (they are not - worst case is Clement and his 3.4 from last year). Still, it is another option gone.

It sounded like the Vladdy deal was heading towards a positive conclusion but things have gone very quiet again so I've lost a little optimism that a deal will get done in time.

It's only about money. So, without hearing specifics, I don't see how it's heading or not heading anywhere.

Vladdy has a number he's looking for. Either they offer him that or they don't. Unless that number keeps changing. Which I doubt.

Now, there are games to be played with the length and deferrals, for sure. But at the end of the day, it's the equivalent of a lump sum.

Quiet is probably best for the Vlad negotiations. When things get public one side or the other is trying to force things. When neither is public then odds are they are being serious with each other. Lets hope that is the case.

Y'know, the more I look the more I like the idea of Lane Thomas - a decent 4th OF who kills LHP - last year the Jays were 24th in wRC+ vs LHP with a horrid 88 wRC+. Vlad, Jimenez, Varsho all pounded them 130+ wRC+, ex-Jays Turner did well (126) as did IKF (116) and Luis De Los Santos (116) and Danny Jansen (103). Kirk was next at 97 (Berroa at 98), then it gets very ugly - everyone else 74 or worse (Springer, Clement, Loperfido in the 70's, Wagner 57, Schneider 50, Bo 7). Wagner was a 149 vs RHP so given that split I'd say a platoon of Wagner/Thomas at DH could be very effective - now Wagner is in few PA, but Thomas is a career massive split guy. In the minors in '24 Wagner had an OPS of 890 vs RHP, 772 vs LHP, in '23 964-832, in '22 815-613, in '21 840-748 so a clear platoon spread of 100+ points.

Now, Thomas' salary might be a bit high for a platoon guy at $7.825 mil, but he'd also be a decent backup for when Springer needs rest (mix/match with Lukes who bats left) or you want to give Santander a day at DH. Sadly no time at 1B yet, but odds are he'd learn fast (1B tends to be the easiest to learn). The more I look the more I like the idea of getting him, and given how cheap Cleveland tends to be he shouldn't cost much of anything outside of his salary.

He's also an incredible base runner.

Or they could develop their own guys.
They probably have some guys at AAA who hit lefties well.
I think Palmegiani has some big splits.
They typically waste the 26th spot.

I'd rather they keep a spot open to grab another arm on the waiver.

Realistically, Lane Thomas is not going to be platooning with Springer, Bo or Clement.
If Schneider can't hit lefties, he shouldn't be on the team at all.

it is a bit funny that for all the talk about us so badly needing lefty bats, we were actually quite good against RHP (106wrc+, #9 mlb), and awful against LHP (88wrc+, #24 mlb).

The 'develop your own guys' is a nice concept, but you can't magically make guys hit ML pitchers well. I agree that if Schneider can't hit LHP then he has no role here. He is 105/102 for wRC+ vs L/R career (2 years). His minor league stats don't show him hitting LHP well either - 916/1.011 in '23, 712/851 in '22, 1547/669 in '21 so you have to go back to his A ball stats in '21 to get him hitting LHP better than RHP in the minors. His majors stats suggest not much of a spread. This is OK (could even be a good thing) if he has a 120 OPS+ overall, but he doesn't, he is at 101.

Now, Orelvis Martinez could be interesting - lets check. 965/835 in '24, 1047/769 in '23, 810/713 in '22, 682/946 in '21. So outside of 2021 he has had better stats vs LHP than RHP and has significant power potential. Maybe giving him and Wagner DH time and seeing if they can help at 3B/1B and other positions in '25 is a good idea. So there is your internal 'give him a shot' guy imo - he has tons of power potential and could win a job outright, but mix/match with Wagner at DH and slip the two of them in at 3B whenever possible might be a good idea. Clement could be there when defense is critical (late close games) but either could hit for Clement and/or play a full game as needed. Plus both have enough of a bat potential to cover DH. Plus they'd be ML minimum wage. Y'know, that might be the best idea. Thomas is the 'safe' option, but giving the kids a shot might be the smart option, and if it fails I'm sure Cleveland would be open to a mid-season trade.

Arden Zwelling@ArdenZwelling · 59m
Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins says Yariel Rodriguez will be stretched out in spring training and compete for fifth spot in club's rotation

Expect Jake Bloss, Adam Macko, Eric Lauer, and Adam Kloffenstein to form next layer of starting depth in triple-A rotation

BA's next 10

31. Steward Berroa, OF
32. Cutter Coffey, SS
33. Enmanuel Bonilla, OF
34. Yohendrick Pinango, OF
35. Devereaux Harrison, RHP
36. Eddie Micheletti, Jr., OF
37. Carson Pierce, RHP. TJ will miss all of 2025.
38. Jackson Wentworth, RHP
39. Nolan Perry, RHP. TJ will miss all of 2025.
40. Connor Cooke, RHP. TJ in January of 2025.

Ross’s comment (during Scherzer press conference) that any future additions would likely come via trade seemed designed to quell any fan expectations that Bregman might be acquired.

Now that makes a ton of sense to me. Bregman is a potential anchor in a bad way on a team in 3+ years. 3B don't age well traditionally (outside of the PED years) just like 2B don't. I really need to sit down and do a study on that - doing quick HOF and favorite player checks I see lots of 2B and 3B who are done by 35/36, few making it to 40 and these are top of the line guys. OF's you find plenty.

Of course, that brings us to Vlad. What is his likely future? His most similar through age 25 season...

• Eddie Murray: damn nice top - played to age 41, last good year at 39, last great year at 34 (35 to end 5.1 bWAR, vs 5.2 in his age 34 season) 42.9 from ages 26-34 (in the ballpark for what Vlad wants)
• Freddie Freeman: Entering age 35 season, 26-34 was 45.8 bWAR (probably worth the $450 mil Vlad wants)
• Tony Conigliaro: negative WAR after age 25 - lost his age 23 season due to a horrific beaning (twisted his head to avoid the ball so hard that his helmet flew off and it got him square on the temple) and only had 1 good year after that, at age 25.
• Del Ennis: only lasted to age 34. From 26-34 he was only 9.3 bWAR, far less than his age 24/25 seasons combined (10.2). A solid player to age 30, but 31-34 he was negative WAR every year.
• Prince Fielder: the one we all think of first. 6.3 WAR at 25, then 13.1 the rest of his career (26-32). He needed spinal fusion surgery at 32 for the 2nd time and that ended him.

So 2 who ended very early due to injuries that are very unpredictable. 1 who is still active but has provided all the value one would hope Vlad could, 1 who is long retired and did that value too. and 1 who was not much after 25 who played immediately post WWII. A weird group of guys. But 2 of the 3 who didn't have freak injuries did provide the value that Vlad wants to be paid for ($450 mil) based on $10 mil per WAR (might be high, but Soto shows it isn't necessarily).

So that leaves us wondering what trades they might be looking at? 3B/DH is it for big stuff, with LH reliever and backup C as minor goals. Internal stuff isn't horrid for it (I like the Wagner/Martinez platoon idea at DH the more I think about it - if one takes off the other can be sent down). 3B can be a mix/match of Clement, Vlad, and a kid (Barger, Martinez, or Wagner) with Schneider needing to show a lot to earn a slot on the team at this point imo.

That's because the Jays are only facing the top lefties.
The Yankees resigned  Tim Hill, right now he's the only lefty in their pen.
How did the Jays do against him? They hit .400 with an .864 OPS.
Against Rodon they hit .300 with a .917 OPS.
Against Cortes they hit .368 with a 1.137 OPS.

Obviously, they need to stretch Y-Rod, since he's the 6th starter off the bat.
He's the new Ross Stripling.

I wonder if the Blue Jays offered Bregman a contract, maybe around 6/180 with some deferred money, and Bregman basically said no — at which point the Blue Jays decided to move on (instead of going to 7/210 or something).

I’m OK with that. Bregman seems to have some red flags (age, injury history, plummeting walk rate in 2024).

Hopefully the farm produces some breakout performances in the first half so that the team can add a couple of good players at the trade deadline (if they’re still in the postseason race).

The team could use some luck in 2025 (good health, having some bounces and calls go their way). Of course, I agree with the esteemed Mike Green that luck is generally the residue of design.

Kiley McDaniel lists Roden as one of “four under-the-radar prospects” who he predicts “will be solid MLB role players, racking up at least 1.0 WAR” in 2025.

for the first time i'm actually content that the FA efforts were legit. not just that they wanted guys but that they were legitimately prepared to outbid most everyone for the top guys.

I don't mind missing out on some of the big names in these circumstances.

Especially since i feel pretty good about the chances of us getting lots of good contributions from our large group of borderline mlb guys. I'd actually be surprised if we don't get at least some clement/horwitz type contributions this year, and wouldn't be surprised to see more than that.

I just hope the starting pitching talent stays/gets healthy.

Obviously, they need to stretch Y-Rod, since he's the 6th starter off the bat. He's the new Ross Stripling.

There was a rumour last week, possibly from one the Sportsnet boys, that Rodriguez has a clause in his contract that he can't be optioned down after the first year.

If that's the case, it's a lot harder to keep him ready as a true 6th starter unless you commit to using him as a true longman on the MLB roster instead of using him randomly for 2-3 innings when needed.

I suspect if in November you said by February we'd have Max Scherzer, Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García signed and traded for a 3-4 WAR 2B (Andrés Giménez) where the cost was Horwitz most here would've been satisfied. Especially with Scherzer at $15.5 mil and Santander at under $15 mil a year (yeah 5 years is a bit much, but still a good deal), Hoffman for 3/$33, and Garcia 2/$15. I know I'd have been shocked at Santander for that little - I thought 5/$100 is what it'd take (no deferrals). So, new LF, 2B, lost a DH option, new closer, setup, and new starter. Only area not touched was 3B - if you figure Santander will get DH time (kind of obvious he'll get some, as will Vlad and others). Losing Romano sucks, but I wasn't really counting on much from him in 2025 given how much of '24 he missed (seemed logical he'd miss April/May and once back would be less effective than in '23 and earlier).

Now, if only some of the kids can develop into more than 1 month wonders.

Rodriguez will be ready to start in April and if he moves to the pen, they will try to use him in long relief. If he has to go to the rotation in June or July, he'll start with something like a 50 pitch limit and build from that. We've seen this movie before.

Bregman made 30.5M his last 2 years and reportedly considered a lower AAV as a paycut.

I'm pretty sure that clause in Yariel's contract was widely reported when he signed.

Andrew Tinnish is excited by the 4 shortstops the Jays have added through the international free agent market. They are: Christian Polanco ( 2.3 million ), Juan Sanchez ( 1 million ), Elaineiker Coronado ( $800,000 ), and Kennew Blanco ( $600,000 ). They still have 2 million left to spend, basically the amount they got from Cleveland and Tinnish says they are looking at prospects that emerge through the year.

Bregman is being foolish if he thinks a raise is coming on a long term deal. 2-3 years, maybe. 5+? Not a chance unless someone is desperate.

Blue Jays are fielding two DSL clubs this year so the money will also help acquire players to field the extra team. This allows the club to slow-play some of these young latin players so they're 19-20 when they come over. With just on short-season team allowed in North America now, it makes sense.

Also of interest, Enmanuel Beltre, Manuel Beltre's brother, should be a part of the Jays' 2026 free agent class. He's working out at their DSL complex in full Jays gear.

Happy about having second DSL team. Not much cost but pretty decent benefit. Not too worried about Jays finding an extra $2M to spend rest of the year on prospects. Every year there are guys worth spending on who emerge later.

If he has to go to the rotation in June or July, he'll start with something like a 50 pitch limit and build from that. We've seen this movie before.

We've seen this movie before, but it's not ideal and I don't think the Jays handle swingmen, long relievers & multiinning guys particularly well.

Rodriguez was already behind on building up his arm and innings last year after sitting the previous year out due to visa issues (and possibly being utilized at times as a reliever in Japan).

Another year in purgatory being called upon to throw 2-3 unscheduled garbage time innings isn't ideal as a use of their investment.

Yariel also isn't a young arm that they are babying. His prime should be now.

You need more than 5 SPs in a season. We will see how things develop week by week. Also hopefully Manoah will return in August or so.

here's another for 2026 Catcher Jose Gori

https://www.instagram.com/rh7__prospectos/p/DBW1GUGxC3E/?img_index=1

from Jan 23
Enmanuel Beltre With The Toronto Blue Jays Sandy Rosario: Director Latin American

https://x.com/manuel_beltre09/status/1882657019200737688

Thanks mendocino. So Gori and E Beltre will be 2026 signees.

How many starters do you need in a season?

• Division winners: NYY: 6 with 15+ starts, 2 more had 4-5 starts; Cleveland: 6 with 15+ starts, 8 more with 1-8 starts; Houston: 5 with 15+, 1 with 10, 6 with 1-7 starts each; Phillies: 5 with 15+ starts, 7 with 1-7 starts each; Milwaukee 3 with 15+, 3 with 10-14, 11 with 1-9 starts (ouch); Dodgers: 5 with 15+, 3 with 10-13 starts, 9 with 1-7 starts.
• Wild cards: O's: 6 with 15+, 7 with 1-9 starts; Detroit: 6 with 15+, 1 with 12, 7 with 1-9; KC: 5 with 25+ starts, 4 with 1-6 starts (wow); Atlanta: 5 with 20+ starts, 1 with 10, 7 with 1-7 starts; Mets: 5 with 15+ starts, 7 with 1-9 starts. Padres: 6 with 15+, 1 with 10, 1 with 8, that's it.

Clearly contenders have fairly healthy staffs - 15+ starts from 5-6 guys outside of Milwaukee (3). They might use another 8+ starters but often it is emergency 'opener' starts, not 5+ innings for a few weeks situations. So #1 is keeping our core 5 healthy, then avoiding using more than absolutely necessary for #6 and beyond (Rodriguez, then Manoah, Bloss, Macko, and who knows - someone always emerges in the minors as a surprise starter. They don't always do well in the majors, or even get a shot, but someone always surprises in a good way, while another surprises in a bad way. Just how it is.

Keegan Matheson@KeeganMatheson · 30m
Kevin Kiermaier has joined the #BlueJays organization as a special assistant.

Or, as he puts it: “A special assistant … slash outfield specialist … slash outfield whisperer.”

I actually wouldn't mind having him doing color commentary on the odd day.

I'm hopeful KK can help Santander a touch, and then spend most of his time with the kids and get them to be at least at a ML neutral level, ideally push those already there to becoming elite defensive players. If we could get a few developed it would be fantastic. No more blowing $10+ mil to get elite defense in the OF. Maybe get truly rounded players out there. Now, where is a bat whisperer the Jays could hire? Is Delgado or Olerud available?

I'm pretty skeptical how much outfield defense can be improved by instruction alone, particularly in the relatively short window of ST (I would imagine not much actual teaching occurs in-season with the daily grind, travel schedule and paucity of days off).

I'm even more skeptical that someone like Kevin Kiermaier is the ideal teacher; not for personal reasons, but for the fact that Kiermaier seemed like a gifted athlete with natural tools making the position look easy despite his low draft slot.

In my mind, guys like Kevin Pillar or a retired Daulton Varsho are potentially the guys more likely to be better instructors: players who excelled at their position without actually having the most elite of natural gifts.

Pillar's scouting report didn't mention much about potentially elite CF defense when he first came up. He was touted as a bat-first high BA fourth outfielder who initially started in the MLB in LF. Obviously there was something he did to turn heads and improve his game, essentially stealing Dalton Pompey's CF spot and altering the course of both their careers.

In some ways, same with Varsho. Varsho doesn't seem to have elite level sprint speed, which is likely why he initially made the MLB as catcher. Varsho's elite CF defense seems rooted in his elite reads of batted balls.

It would seem that the Pillars and Varshos are more likely to be able to impart knowledge of how to make the best of MLB-quality-but-not-league-best tools to players similarly on the bubble.

Elite talents like Kiermaier, IMO, may have a harder time imparting their knowledge to other peers who lack such freak abilities.

It makes me think of the adage that Wayne Gretzky in general wasn't a great coach in his time behind the bench in Phoenix. Likely because it would be very difficult to teach mediocre talent on the club how to perform like a young 80s Great One.

On the flip side he already knows the returning players. The hire may be merely an acknowledgement that he has helped those on the roster in the past and there was value provided by his in-season tips to Varsho, Springer, and others. Also, this may be doing a well liked clubhouse guy a favor. He likely wants to get into the coaching side of the game and the team is giving him a opportunity. The Jays have the resources for a minimal cost and his other org Tampa has its current issues and penny-pinching. He is no great one and while I believe that argument iirc KK was always praised for his prep/work ethic.

KK doesn't live far from Dunedin.
I don't think he's going to help Santander. 
I imagine he's going to work with the young athletes who have the tools to play CF.
Loperfido, Clase, Lukes, Berroa, Roden and Schreck will be in camp.
After that, he can roam across the minor leagues system...

" Now where is the bat whisperer the Jays could hire ? Is Delgado or Olerud available ?"

Victor Martinez and Edwin Encarnacion were around the club last season so between them and the multitude of hitting coaches, I don't know how much more instruction the players can absorb. Somebody must have been instrumental in helping Vlad regain his stroke, though.

The Gretzky experience in Phoenix is not a great analogy. A Head Coach is an entirely different animal than a skills coach.

I also believe that the notion that Kiermaier was too gifted to be a great teacher completely dismisses the incredible work that Kiermaier put into his craft. By all accounts, he was a tireless worker, practiced constantly, and a student of the game. Yes, he had great tools to work with, but so did a lot of bad outfielders.

I’m with pooks137: I don’t think being a big star like Delgado or Olerud means they’d be particularly effective as teachers (or new cliche, “whisperers”.) I think often the non-stars might be better because they often had to work, observe and study more than the naturally gifted athletes.

Ted Williams was a failed manager; Babe Ruth wanted to manage, but Yankees owner supposedly told him “You can’t even manage yourself, how do you expect to manage other men?” I remember Halladay wanted to help instruct Jays pitchers, but management didn’t bite. I guessed it was because they wanted their preferred approach, not just from someone who was a team star.

He is no great one and while I believe that argument iirc KK was always praised for his prep/work ethic.

Having Kiermaier in camp has no downside, I just think expectations should be low. Like your post implied christaylor, these retired gigs tend to be patronage appointments.

I forgot to mention in my wall of text that the only recent example I recall of an OF improving their defense at the MLB level was Teoscar Hernandez.

He was essentially an unplayable butcher in LF when he was first acquired from Houston with a bat that also didn't cover his negatives in the field. Then Teo broke out and his defense with a switch to RF seemed to at least improve to simply below average to possibly closer to the mean.

I'm not sure if anyone in particular on the Jays staff at the time was credited with saving/propelling Hernandez' career. It also helped when his power emerged simultaneously to an All-Star level, taking a lot of pressure off his OF struggles.

Off-topic, but I wish the FO did bite on Halladay as a roving instructor in hindsight what his life was like post-retirement. The guest appearances with the Phillies were not enough. He needed the game as a distraction and a point of focus. He'd been doing all his life, made bad decisions medically, and while gifted we all know how familiar he was with the mental aspect of the game and adjusting and adapting his approach. He could have used the support system and wins to help younger players. It could have saved his life if they had brought him on directly after retirement. Heck, maybe he will try an improbable comeback like Steib.

Getting back to KK pure speculation, but perhaps he's in the same boat. It is a good look on the FO to take care and give their guys a chance. Low stakes and a kind gesture for a role that's all intangibles and not as if he's another person. Regarding helping players, I agree that Santander is a lost cause. I hope not, but unless he hits 30 HR this season, it'll be hard to justify it as a good signing. At the start of the season, I really wanted the team to avoid him, but I want to be wrong.

Given that we're posting about KK and what we'll soon see as awful D from Santander, it probably reflects that we're all ready for spring training and eager to see the players play.

Very true all - that KK won't really help Santander. By 30 players are who they are. He could help the kids, help the planning of routes/what to look for when a pitcher is throwing and be ready to go in a certain direction, etc. I know I never had a clue on that - my best plays were always being too far back and gunning it in at full speed to catch a fly or line drive, then my noodle arm would barely get it to the infield.

I think his biggest help would be to show the Jays what he saw in Dodgerland for pre-game prep and the like which he said was far beyond anything in Toronto or Tampa. Hopefully the Jays pay attention. That is low hanging fruit and cheap fruit at that (a team of analysists would cost less than the ML minimum for 1 guy I suspect).

Agreed on Halladay - that hiring him would've been a smart move just for the workouts he did to show every kid in the system. Plus it might have helped keep him from the stupid flying he did, and if not then at least upped the odds of his wife not saying 'no hat'.

I guess the Jays will have a strong defensive 4th OF on the team - Lukes qualifies for that, and given his age the Jays won't worry about messing up his development at this point with the 2 or 3 PA a week a backup will probably get especially in April. So Lukes/Wagner/RH bat/backup catcher as the bench with one of them in the lineup everyday (DH/OF/1B/wherever needed). When Bo needs a day off Clement goes to SS, Wagner to 3B most likely. RH bat could be Schneider (2B/LF/3B), or Orelvis Martinez (2B/SS/3B - I know fielding % is a poor way to measure defense but his are bad at all 3 positions, kid really is a DH in waiting it seems, wonder if he could handle the OF?) or Clase (368 OBP in minors, switch hitter, CF) maybe. McAdoo (RH, 3B/2B) and others I see as starting in the minors but possibly earning shots as the year goes on.

i don't think coaching can help defense all that much but it can help a bit, and i don't think you can become an all-time great defensive player KK just based on raw talent. it takes tons of hard work, preparation, and strategy imo.

Halladay was addicted to two things and unfortunately I don't think baseball or family were one of them. He was my favourite pitcher but now slots behind Mike Mussina for me.

I don't think you're really in any position to judge Halladay's dedication, or "addiction", to his family. He retired when he did to watch his son's grow up.

And, frankly, to suggest he wasn't addicted to baseball is also patently ridiculous.

I agree Katie - Halladay clearly loved his family. His problem was he also loved the rush of adrenaline thus leading to his taking too big of a risk with flying. One does wonder if there might have been other ways for him to get that high he felt when competing without the life/death risk. Sad for him, his family, and everyone who cared about him that he didn't find that.

Pro-sports at the big league level really does need to work harder on finding ways to help players with the shift from playing to retirement. You read of players who blow all their savings in dumb ventures, from car racing to planes to gambling once they retire in an effort to get that rush back. Hard for us who never had a crowd of thousands cheering us on to imagine what that must feel like. Closest I've got is being on TV a few times knowing many were watching, but nothing like they have (no audience in studio - it is weird talking to a camera and imagining thousands on the other side of it).

Michael Petersen has been lost (who? Oh yeah, guy we got off waivers back in November, designated for assignment when Scherzer was signed). The Angels took him. Did great in AAA but not so good in the majors (ERA 5.95 in 19 2/3 IP). I suspect we'll see lots of transactions like this the next few weeks - guys being put on waivers and lost, others taken, as teams shuffle things for 2025.

Meanwhile the rumor mill is damn quiet - Vlad might sign or might not with only a few days left before his deadline. Bregman appears to not be interested in Toronto, keep seeing rumors about a Luis Arráez trade - meh - a guy without a position (has been a regular at 1B/2B/3B at least once in his 6 year career) who hits for a great average, still, could do a lot worse than him in the leadoff slot, lifetime 323/372/418. Odds are the Padres would pretty much give him away as they need to cut costs and most of their big ticket items are too pricey to deal (Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts) unless the Jays have a very strong stomach for risk.

Katie,

There is lots of information out there about Halladay and his struggles. Nobody is suggesting he didn't love his family, of course he did and Brandy was amazing. I'm not sure how much you've read and don't quote me but I recall reading from a book and articles that Halladay was pushed to the max as a youth ala Tiger Woods by his father and he developed habits that led to his addictions to prescription meds and his passion for flying which connected him to his father "big" Roy Halladay or something like that.

There was a lot of innuendo after the Doc trade 15 years ago that some of the remaining younger pitchers felt a sense of levity and relief when Roy moved on.

"One thing without Doc - and not that he was a bad teammate or anything like that - is I think a lot of people feel a little more comfortable with him gone, that they can go to each other and communicate about things, whether it's reading swings or going over hitters or whatever," Marcum said.

"Some people in the past may have felt intimidated by Doc, that maybe they were stepping on his toes by wanting to go over something while he was preparing for his next start."

http://archive.today/qBDRH - Archive - G&M March -10

When Halladay left for Philadelphia, there seemed to be a sense of relief from young left-hander Brett Cecil, who voiced what seemed to be a common thought process in a very young Jays clubhouse. He claimed to be intimidated by the mere presence of Halladay walking into the room and that he was relieved to be led by more of a peer, at the time Shaun Marcum, since replaced by Romero.

http://archive.today/Tqufk - Richard Griffin - The Stad - April '11

This doesn't mean that Roy was a bad person or that he wasn't a good father, husband or family man.

But the qualities and traits that make people elite and venerated sometimes also might not be ideal for those around them to interact with them like regular humans.

The 00s physicians (I was there, I met them) who were all too happy to dole out oxycodone for pain were more responsible for Halladay's addictions than anything his dad did.

It was only really with the death of Skaggs that this issue was brought to light.

Well Roy didn't have much life outside of baseball and it's being portrayed that that was because of his father. He had depression issues before taking medication for it, before taking pain medication for his body as well.

It's unfortunate but his dad has gone on record to say that Roy's tragic end wasn't painting an accurate portrayal and he discredited Roy's wife and friends for sharing openly much of Roy's struggles to the point where he said Roy had marital problems and couldn't trust his friends.

Nothing spells spring training like a burst of injury report.

Anthony Rendo is having hip surgery. Not sure why he couldn't have that last fall.

Horwitz is going to miss 6 to 8 weeks following wrist surgery.
It's going to be hard for him to improve his power in the short term.

Is Rendon's contract the worst signing in MLB history? For a cool $245M he has provided the Angels 3.7/3.8 fWAR/bWAR and since his injuries started piling up in 2021, has almost as many IL trips (12) as home runs (13). I guess he wasn't kidding when he said MLB needed to play fewer games.

Stephen Strasburg’s contract was comparably bad (if not worse), I think.

The Spencer Horwitz belated wrist surgery makes the Gimenez trade look even better in hindsight.

The reports surrounding the surgery called the issue chronic.

Converting a moderately talented overage player without a position who also can't contribute for the first half of the season into an asset like Gimenez who has the potential to provide present value in other areas is a better Win Now move.

The Pirates of course have the benefit of holding on to Horwitz as a present marginal asset in the hopes of cashing in cost effectively with team control down the road.

Keeping Horwitz around really only made sense if the team truly fears losing Vlad next year, which certainly remains a possibility.

Stephen Strasburg

245M for 31 innings. The Nationals won the WS in 2019 and then had to decide which star to keep, Strasburg or Rendon. Strasburg had already shown a propensity to be injured but was a standout in the 2019 post-season and seemed to be the sentimental choice. Rendon seemed the surer bet but was turning 30. Obviously both signed albatross contracts.

There are plenty of really, really bad contracts in MLB history. Here are big ones using a minimum of 5+ years or completed to list (signed pre the 2020 season or earlier). Info via Cot's Contracts and Baseball Reference.

• $400+ mil: Trout (2019-30 21.7 bWAR 6 years in, 1 MVP, 3 top 10's total)
• $300-399 mil: Harper (19-31 23.3 bWAR after 6 years, 1 MVP, 2 top 10s), Stanton (15-27 23.1 bWAR after 10 years, 1 MVP), Cole (20-28 19.9), Machado (19-28, 23.4 bWAR for 6 years, 2 top 10 MVP, contract renegotiated for 2023-33)
• $200-299 mil: A-Rod (08-17 23.1), Arenado (19-26 25.3 6 years), A-Rod (01-10 71.5!), Cabrera (16-23 2.4 bWAR), Strasburg (20-26 -0.5 bWAR ouch), Rendon (20-26 3.7), Pujols (12-21 12.8 bWAR), Cano (14-23 23.7), Votto (14-23 30.2), Price (16-22 11.0), Kershaw (14-20 34.2), Yelich (20-28 10.1), Fielder (12-20 7.1), Scherzer (15-21 35.6), Greinke (16-21 20.0).
• $150-199 mil (now must be done or list goes forever): Jeter (01-10 41.2), Mauer (11-18 22.0), Heyward (16-23 10.8), Teixeira (09-16 19.3), Verlander (13-19 35.7), Strasburg (17-23 13.8), Posey (13-21 23.4), Altuve (18-24 24.5), Sabathia (09-15 21.3), Chris Davis (16-22 -2.7), ManRam (01-08 36.6), Kemp (12-19 4.3), Tulowitzki (11-20 24.1), Tanaka (14-20 17.5), Lester (15-20 12.3), Adrian Gonzalez (12-18 17.0), Ellsbury (14-20 9.8), Cabrera (08-15 46.5)
• Old and ugly: Brown (99-05 22.8 but remembered as bad due to final 2 years in NYY 2.3 bWAR), Hampton (01-08 2.9 bWAR for $121 mil)

Interesting eh? Skipping the more recent ones keeps it from ballooning in length.

Summary:

• 30+ WAR: IE: success!: A-Rod (1st deal over 70!), Votto, Kershaw, Scherzer, Jeter (40), Verlander, Cabrera (1st deal), ManRam
• 20-29 WAR: IE: solid: Trout (should move to 30+ with any luck by end), Harper (same), Stanton, Machado (1st deal), ARod (2nd deal), Arenado, Cano, Greinke, Mauer, Brown, Posey, Altuve, Sabathia, Tulo, A-Rod 2nd deal.
• 10-19 WAR: IE: meh: Cole (will be moved up this year), Pujols, Price, Yelich, Heyward, Teixeira, Strasburg (1st deal), Lester, A Gonzalez, Tanaka, Lester
• 0-9 WAR: IE: Ugh: Cabrera (final deal), Rendon, Fielder, Ellsbury, Hampton, Kemp
• sub 0 WAR: IE: Total disaster: Strasburg (final deal), Davis

I'd say Chris Davis and Strasburg's 2nd deal are the total disasters. With dishonorable mentions to Cabrera (2nd), Rendon, Fielder, Ellsbury, Hampton, and Kemp. A-Rod's infamous first deal was actually a damn good one which sadly helped the Yankees most (Rangers signed him but paid a chunk of his deal to dump him on the Yankees) but also led to his 2nd deal which embarrassed the Yankees something fierce.

As much as I would like to see a Vladdy 10-year extension, I think a huge long-term contract for him carries a fair bit of risk. He’s already had knee and wrist issues, and he was apparently in a lot of body pain during the 2023 season. It wouldn’t surprise me if his body started breaking down in a few years, rendering him an annual 1-3 WAR player.

But that is just one potential outcome. He could also end up being well worth the money. He’s a prodigious hitting talent and a good athlete. He’s still relatively young.

Pivetta is off the board. Per MLBTR:

“The Padres are in agreement with Nick Pivetta on a four-year, $55MM free agent deal that includes multiple opt-out chances, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN.”

Lots of potential end results for a long term Vlad deal - ideal is he produces at a high level and creates 40+ WAR of value over the contract. Odds are low of that though looking at that list of $150+ mil deals. 8 reached 30 WAR which I see as the minimum needed for this deal to work. 14 got to 20 WAR (I accidently listed ARod's 2nd deal twice) - this level would be livable but not good. The 10's were 11 guys, a mess for the Jays if he only produced that over 10+ years for $400+ mil. Sub 10 WAR is 8 guys - total disaster. So 8-14-11-8 is the grouping, as good odds of 'woohoo' as 'oh s#!t', about equal for 'OK' as 'crap, but not total disaster'. Not ideal by any stretch, but his age is a big plus (many disasters were 30+ or 2nd major deals, renegotiations).

3 x $40 for Bregman with Red Sox

Would have done that for Bregman but don't think he really wanted to come here.

Wow. 3/$120 with opt outs after each season. The only years Bregman was clearly worth that were 18 and 19, a long time ago. His 3 recent years in the 4's for WAR are probably worth that much (22-23-24), but he is entering his age 31 season so odds are not high that he'll stay at that level for ages 31/32/33. Still, not the most insane risk they could've taken I guess. It'll be interesting to see how it works out for both parties.

Wonder what happens with Nolan Arenado now? The Red Sox were the most obvious destination after he rejected a trade to Houston. Doubt the Jays are that interested - great defense, but his bat has dropped a lot lately (150 OPS+ in 22, 108 in '23, 101 in '24) and he is signed for $74 mil for the next 3 years (ages 34-36). Clearly his glove is his top asset and Clement can provide that for a LOT less. Mix in a top prospect or something and maybe, but I can't see a match there.

Arenado is only interested in going to a few teams. Toronto isn't one of them. I'm fine with that.

Does this mean the Blue Jays will likely be playing for the third AL WC spot again? NYY and Boston look strong, Bal is talented but maybe a bit short of pitching, TB is always a risk to be unconventionally good on a budget.

Feels like the Blue Jays are a fourth- or fifth-place team in a strong AL East.

So the only time he wasn’t a 4 war guy was when he knew what pitch was coming?

40 for Bregman seems like a huge overpay.
I'm surprised. This feels like a bad use of assets by the Sox too. Or are they keeping Devers at 3rd and moving Bregman?
I would so not do this.

Boston is loaded with left bats, so it makes a lot more sense for them. I don't see Bregman opting out of 40M a year, but some of it is differed.

The Yankees still have 3rd base open. One of their problems is trying to dump Stroman and his 16M somewhere.

The opt outs limit the upside for the team because if he has an MVP type season (and/or if the player market goes crazy) he can opt out and possibly get more and/or longer commitment. And if he does terribly or gets injured he can not opt out. It maybe be that he isn't going to get more than $40/year, but if he gets $40 next year and has some 3.5 WAR year maybe he opts out hoping to sign a new 5/175 or something instead of keep the remaining 2/80.

That said, a 3 year deal is unlikely to be a disaster from the Boston side, and if he's good enough to opt out they are probably happy with what they get from him, so a pretty reasonable deal all around.

It’s a good deal for both sides, in my opinion.

As Fangraphs recently noted, the addition of Bregman increases Boston’s playoff probability by about 11% (from 45.3% to 56.1%). That’s a move worth making for Boston. Even if Bregman is a 3 WAR player in 2025 and a 2 WAR player in 2026 and 2027, the contract won’t be a disaster for the team, especially if there is a substantial amount of deferred money involved. And Bregman may well be better than that (say, conservatively, WAR of 3.5, 3, 2.5 in the next three seasons).

BA rated Boston as having the #1 farm system in MLB, so this move, along with the trade for Crochet, is a nice short-term acquisition to help propel the team squarely into contention in 2025 while the minor-league talent makes its way toward the majors.

Apparently, Wagner will play mostly 3B and 1B in spring. If he can handle 3B, that would be massive for the team.

Is Nick Pivetta a solid #4 type starter? ERA 4-4.5 and about 150IP.

From Jeff Passan's latest:

"Whether it's in the next few days or by the end of the month when spring pitching injuries inevitably crop up, Pivetta's market will emerge and he'll be rewarded accordingly. Even if he never has finished a full season with an ERA below 4.00, Pivetta is coming off a season in which he struck out 172 and walked 36. And pitchers with nearly 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratios and premium stuff always find a willing partner."

Bregman is apparently going to play 2B, which is curious given Devers' massive defensive issues.

Toronto is definitely landing third to fifth place. Boston was a beast before Bregman due to their impressive amount of almost-MLB-ready young bats and high-upside arms. They have much more depth than the Yankees, who are a little more vulnerable due to their older roster and lack of depth.

Baltimore still has no pitching depth on the starting side but the bullpen is strong, as is the offence.

TB is getting back some high-upside arms after 2024 injuries... and have some intriguing young bats with massive upside. If they start clicking now, TB could cruise into a third-place finish.

Toronto just hasn't done enough to get good enough... although I will say that they tried. The failures to develop internal talent sets then apart from the other teams in the division (with the exception of maybe the Yankees).

Feels like the Blue Jays fell a bit short this off-season, despite a legitimate effort to augment the team with Santander, Gimenez, Hoffman, Scherzer, Garcia, Sandlin. At least the front office put the team in a position to be better and possibly compete for a WC spot.

One more frontline SP and one more impact position player would have helped, although an improved farm system is the greater need for long-term competitiveness.

Maybe an impact trade to improve the roster in 2025 is still possible.

I think Red Sox are probably best team in East too but also with areas of concern. Pretty much all their starters pitched career high number of innings in 2024. I definitely see injury risk there. Also, infield defense remains awful and bottom of lineup is pretty bad. They have amazing top-prospects which is what sets them apart.

Pivetta never really made sense for Jays for me. It's hard to invest so much in defense and then go and get a pitcher who doesn't get the ball hit in play much. He's a fine pitcher, just there are better fits for the team.

Seems with deferrals Bregman's contract is actually 3/$90 which makes more sense to me. Moving him to 2B though seems like a big mistake. Higher rate of injuries (few 2B seem to have long careers) and switching up the defensive spectrum at 31 seems risky to me. Yes, Mookie Betts did a bigger change at that age (to SS from RF) but he is a massive exception. Normally at 31 you see guys shifting downwards on the spectrum, from 3B to the OF or 1B for example.

As to effect overall, ZIPS had Boston at 2.2 WAR at 2B before this, with DH at 2.0 and C at 1.5 the only weaker spots. ZIPS has Bregman at 3.3 so a gain of about 1 to 1 1/2 wins depending how they juggle it. Significant, but not $30 mil significant imo. As to the Luxury Tax, this should keep Boston just barely below it, but no space unless they clear some payroll. Of course, they can easily afford to go deep into the tax, but their owners are cheap (Red Sox should be in the Jays area for payroll but are quite a bit below that).

Nick Pivetta, the other QO guy still hanging around, got a 4 year deal from SD for $55 mil with multiple opt-outs. He was worth thinking about for the Jays before they signed Scherzer but was no longer worth digging into once Scherzer was signed.

So now just 3 guys projected to have a 1.5 WAR in 2025 on the FA market - Andrew Heaney (SP), Kyle Gibson (SP), and Lance Lynn (SP). As starters they hold zero interest to the Jays right now. By last years WAR there are 2 2 WAR guys out there - Jose Iglesias (IF) and Heaney. Kind of surprised no one has signed David Robertson yet - wonder if he has an injury we don't know about or something else that is a red light to teams. Lots of ex-Jays on the list of guys who are wondering if their careers might be over at this stage - Whit Merrifield, Paul DeJong, Justin Turner, Ross Stripling, Kevin Pillar, Dillon Tate, Adam Cimber, Ryan Yarbrough, Jay Jackson, Rowdy Tellez, Luke Maile, Yan Gomes, Anthony DeSclafani, Noah Syndergaard, Kendall Graveman. Probably more I don't recognize the name of immediately. A few I'd give AAA deals to there with spring invites, but nothing more than that (Tate, Yarbrough, Gomes, Stripling, Syndergaard, Graveman - always need more pitching and catching).

I think all the AL East managers are at risk of losing their jobs except K Cash. An 85-89 win record probably saves Schneider's job but not the Baltimore, Boston & NYY managers.

Boston has the prospects to make a killer trade or two for an impact, controllable player if they want (as they did with Crochet). That is a big competitive advantage.

I'd say Baltimore's at the most risk this year - 2 years of flops in the playoffs (hmm...sound familiar?) and an ownership team that won't sign free agents - Tyler O'Neill & Charlie Morton both projected to be in the 1's for WAR, the rest sub 1 cheapies. Paying $10 mil for Andrew Kittredge when you are limited on budget seems really dumb too. Tomoyuki Sugano for $13 mil seems risky but could work out well (projected as a sub 1 WAR guy, but he was great in Japan at times). If all goes right for the O's they'll be back in the playoffs, but if it doesn't they could easily find themselves where the Jays were at the end of '24 - wondering why so much promise has flopped.

There's a story in The Athletic about Terry Francona's return to baseball with the Reds. He's had 3 surgeries since stepping down in Cleveland a couple of years ago. He's had 45 surgeries in his lifetime. 22 on his knees alone. One of my favorite managers and I wish he was at the helm of the Jays.

Asked about which prospect he was excited to see, Atkins singled out Roden which I love. Hope he's given a shot to make the team and get meaningful abs.


“I’ll single out and put some pressure on Alan Roden. He’s done so much to put himself in a position to move through the system quickly…”

The Jays will be in the hunt for the 4th WC.

"The failures to develop internal talent sets then apart from the other teams in the division (with the exception of maybe the Yankees)."

Aside from TB i don't see any AL East team doing anything special. BAL and BOS tanked and were not competitive to rebuild their farm. The Blue Jays were competitive during all those years.

Boston and Baltimore have the "competitive advantage" this season but its ironic they needed to be uncompetitive for years to make that happen. TB is the exception and model organization for developing players while competing.

Roden starting in LF/DH with either Martinez or Barger at 3B (assuming either one can handle the position even adequately, which is debatable) would be the ideal setup with the internal options. Not sure that is the direction they will go, especially the 3B end of that scenario, but I think that's the best mix of upside and potential 2025 performance.

Sounds like they bumbled the Vlad extension. Would love to say I’m shocked.

Pivetta is not going to opt out.
His contract is very back loaded and pays him very little this year.
He also rejected a QO that would have paid him over 20M for this year.

Wagner can probably play 3B as well as Schneider. Marginally.At 5'11", he's a bit short for first base, but Horwitz is 5'10".

yeah sounds like they aren't signing vlad. what a failure.

i don't know how rogers can look at this team at this payroll and it's future prospects and want to extend these two doofuses.

Bye-bye Vladdy after 2025.

Boston, NYY, Mets…there will be teams that will pay a lot for him next off-season (assuming he stays healthy and has a strong season this year).

Boston, NYY, Mets…there will be teams that will pay a lot for him next off-season (assuming he stays healthy and has a strong season this year)."

Mets have Alonso at first and Stearns just talked about how you can't have multiple these kinds of contracts so doubt they'd be on. Red Sox have Casas but also Devers should be moved to 1B/DH (3 years ago) . Maybe they go for Vladdy, but that's so much money tied up in 1B/DH. The market just isn't that big. Jays, Yankees, maybe a team like Cubs or Rangers wants to spend. Anyway, let's hope it's moot and the Jays just re-sign him. I don't take what Atkins said to mean anything. Think it's both side's interest to get something done this week.

ideal lineup according to the combined projections:

* 1. SS Bichette (R) .324obp, 116wrc+
* 2. 3B Wagner (L) .351obp, 116wrc+
* 3. 1B Guerrero (R) .373obp, 152wrc+
* 4. DH Santander (S) .318obp, 126wrc+
* 5. LF Roden (L) .337obp, 109wrc+
* 6. C Alejandro (R) .344obp, 114wrc+
* 7. 2B Gimenez (L) .322obp, 106wrc+
* 8. RF Springer (R) .318obp, 108wrc+
* 9. CF Varsho (L) .296obp, 102wrc+

* 1. LF Lukes (L) .329obp, 106wrc+
* 2. DH Schneider (R) .317obp, 106wrc+
* 3. 1B Barger (L) .312obp, 105wrc+
* 4. SS Jimenez (R) .329obp, 102wrc+
* 5. 3B Clement (R) .299obp, 98wrc+
* 6. RF Loperfido (L) .291obp, 91wrc+
* 7. 2B Orelvis (R) .282obp, 94wrc+
* 8. CF Berroa (S) .299obp, 86wrc+
* 9. C Heineman (S) .301obp, 76wrc+

* X. OF Clase (S) .291obp, 86wrc+
* X. C Bethancourt (R) .270obp, 85wrc+

The Mets “have Alonso at first” for 2025. Maybe also 2026 (when he can also DH) — if he doesn’t opt out. That isn’t a significant obstacle to adding Vladdy.

Olney says he’d be surprised if an extension gets done at this point.

The biggest contract in franchise history is Springer at 6/150M.
We're talking about something 3 times bigger.
The outcome here has more to do with Rogers than the 2 doofuses.
Soto played out entirely between Steinbrenner and Cohen.

Alonso has options, and the contract was front loaded. He wants to play first so he will probably opt-out especially because between Toronto, Mets, and Yankees he will be the consolation price and due more than what he’s owed unless he gets hurt or falls off a cliff.

Stearns is likely just making it clear they aren’t going to pay him over $700m no matter what happens this year. He’s definitely going to make more than the $340 the Jays are trying to get away with pretending is market rate.

The Jays probably aren’t close to what he wants. He has said for years now he considers himself the best. He’s barely resigned himself to the fact he won’t get more than Soto. His agent had to let him know that there are “some things Soto does better.

One number floated was $550m as a demand. How many years? I don’t know. I can see why the front office might hesitate to do that deal- as much as I think they have little choice.

Vlad has another mediocre 3 WAR season and that deal immediately looks like the worst in sports. Vlad picks up where he left off the last four months of the season in 2024 and it looks like a bargain vis-a-vis Soto.

Even if the VGJ negotiations are in Rogers’ hands at this point, that doesn’t mean the front office couldn’t have worked out a long-term contract a few years ago (before the market blew up).

Letting him walk could be tough for the organization, as it could have far-reaching impacts (for example, on its ability to attract Latino free agents and IFA prospects).

Unless you have info that Vlad wanted to sign a deal in the past when he was not in peak form then its probably best to assume the front office couldn't have easily signed him. Tatis is often floated as an example of what could have been done but realistically he was a SS and 5 tool player.

Last season, before the market blew up for superstar players, I suggested that 10/350 might be about the highest the Blue Jays should go for Vladdy. Passan initially thought $300m would be the ceiling. Maybe that ceiling is now around $400-450m. But if Vladdy wants $500m+, I can see why the team is at the point of saying, no thanks.

Passan, who I’m convinced has ties to the Jays, wrote the other day about rumours Vlad was available. He didn’t say he was not, just that he was not being shopped. “The Blue Jays continue to insist to other executives that the slugger isn't going anywhere. There is a price for everyone, yes, but Guerrero's would be exceptionally high.” “There is a price for everyone” being the key words. I think it’s unlikely he gets traded unless this team is dead in the water, and I don’t think anyone is going to pay a price high enough unless Atkins is already gone. When has an exec ever purposely signed their own death warrant? In truth the heat really ought to be on Shapiro. Ownership could take some…ownership of this too, but absent the meddling of EdJu this organization has failed to run anything like the payroll they currently have. I think the onus really belongs with the tweedles known by the portmanteau that shall not be spoken.

It is funny seeing doomsday stuff about 'if the Jays don't resign Vlad' as I'm old enough to remember them letting Delgado walk after they gave him a shorter deal at a record dollar level they didn't want to do but felt forced (Ash in charge so yeah) - $68 mil for 4 years. $17 mil per year was the record for a couple of weeks, this was the winter A-Rod signed for $252 mil for 10 years. So basically they got out in front of a big wave that hit which this time would've required signing Vlad pre-Ohtani to a 4 year $160 mil type deal which would've been nuts at that time to do.

So for his 4 years Delgado had 2 very good years, 1 meh year, 1 great year (2nd in MVP 161 OPS+). 18.2 bWAR total. However, it was seen as a nightmare as he ate up 1/3rd+ of the payroll (Jays were in a cheap mode). You'd need to pay over $80 mil a year to match that today with what the Jays now spend. Note: Delgado was turning 29 the first year of that deal. He left after his age 32 season, but TONS of doomsday views were out there. His final season the Jays were 67-94 dead last, the next year 80-82 3rd place, then 87 wins 2nd place (even under today's rules that would've missed the playoffs by 2 games). The Jays next had a year as bad as Delgado's final one in 2019 (Vlad's first year). Attendance climbed 100k the year after Delgado left, 300k the next year.

Bottom line? Fans want a winner. Not a star, not a name, just victories. We all love Vlad and would like him to be a Jay for life, but if he thinks he has the Jays over a barrel he is very wrong. Another 150+ OPS+ season and he'll be paid well, but another 120 or less and he'll be struggling to get anything near what he feels he is worth or what the Jays offered already.

What has led to the pessimism that Vlad won’t sign? I haven’t seen any reports that say that.

also, on the “we could have signed him years ago” point, he had a 116 ops+ in 2023, and that was the 3rd straight season of decline. Even if you assume he would have accepted 10X$35m at the time (which is pure speculation), is that the kind of player you lock up long term at first base, and at a premium cost? Not to me. There’s a lot of ret-conning going on. If you go back to our boards, many people wanted to cut bait after that season.


The truth is that Vladdy has been extremely inconsistent. It’s very possible he’s turned a corner and figured it out. It’s also possible that this is just who he is. I happen to think he’s turned the corner, but I don’t want the FO to pay Soto/Ohtani price.

Agree that it's very hard to go back in time and find a time where the Jays should have signed Vladdy because a) he was always rich and would never have settled b) I've read that he thinks he's maybe the best player in baseball c) he's been very inconsistent in his career.

I really want the Jays to sign Vladdy but there's a point where no, it won't be worth it. If you're paying Vlad $50M a year and he's not one of the best hitters in baseball, you're screwed. Yes you can say same thing about Soto but Soto has been one of best hitters in baseball every year in his career and Vlad has done it twice. I want them to extend him but he also needs to be reasonable.

it's pretty easy imo.

he would have been flattered and accepted a 10yr/$300m contract after his 2021 season.

John i am impressed at your effort to turn the losing of Delgado into a good era for the Jays franchise.

Passan's radio hit, Ross Atkins saying something other that "I think fans will soon be happy" when asked today (the start of spring training) about when we might hear about Vlad's contract which was supposed to be done before the start of spring training, which somehow got interpreted as Monday...but I digress.

Vlad was hurt in 2023. Wrists take like a year to heal. Mine did...didn't hurt, but just had zero strength in it for a full year after one of the bloody etc tracks and my bike decided to play a prank on me. I did not have a team of trainers and physicians doting over me, but it seems like that is fairly typical from what I've read and learned about wrist injuries. Nearly to the day that he came back from the wrist injury in 2023 to 2024 is when his bat lit up.

While health can be a skill, and the injury was caused by Vlad being on the plate...I think the risk with him is re-injury in this or similar ways. Delgado had put up 2.3 rWAR at the same age as Vlad. Not in a year, TOTAL, for instance. The Jays have never developed a player this good, this young.

I can cop to wanting them to get out of the Vlad business - but I also had him as the top-3 in AL MVP 2024 on this board. I don't know what they do after this year if he's gone. No Bo and no Vlad and this is a very very easy to pitch to team, I doubt even the 95 Braves staff would limp the 2026 Jays (as it stands today) into the playoffs. So..that's the source of my pessimism.

the irony is that the Jays have paid an average of $18m per season for Vladdy over the last 4yrs anyways, so we saved $12m per year by not offering him that contract 4yrs ago.

and we would have had him signed for 6yrs/$180 going forward.

He was offered $150m/7 post-2021 and they thought it was too little. $340 was the last offer they made post-Soto and Vlad stopped short of saying it was insulting. Olney said today there is still an "enormous" gap - where he got that, I don't know.

Ugly, some times I really feel like you’re trolling just to see what happens.

Expecting the Jays to have committed more AAV to Vlad in 2021 than Harper or Betts got as free agents is beyond absurd, and would have looked like a terrible deal for the following two years. And again, we really don’t know if he would have accepted. His plan may have always been to go to free agency. That’s his right as a player, and it’s something lots of players want to do on principle alone

it's not trolling.

10/$300 almost certainly would have done it. and it was suggested at the time.

and it would have cost us an extra $12m per year over these first 4yrs, so if you think it might have looked "bad" when he struggled it wouldn't have cost us much more in reality.

Yeah I suggested 10/300 when Vladdy came up or just before he was promoted (can’t remember which). Yes that might have been an overpay at the time but I think I had the right idea in general. Extend him early and keep him under control for his 20s. Here we are around 6 years later and still debating the issue! I predict an extension is *not* happening.

Juan Soto was offered well over $400M a couple of years ago and had no interest in it. No one knows what Vladdy wants/wanted, and the Jays were right to have hesitation over the last few years given the inconsistent performance, among other things (conditioning). I don't see the point in bringing up what the Jays could have offered 3-4 years ago. No one knows what number Vladdy had in mind. He was quoted as saying he thought he was the best hitter (or one of) in baseball sometime in 2024, and that was after the 2023 season. Imagine how highly he valued himself after 2021. It's a pointless exercise unless Vladdy comes out and says what he was willing to sign for.

I hope the Jays find a way to extend him but the number still has to be somewhat reasonable for it to make sense. I'm not sure they'll find a common ground if his ask is in the $500-600M range. If it's between $400-450M, then I think they eventually figure something out.

My point with the Delgado situation is you can lose a premium 1B who is on a HOF track and not lose fans or wins, depending how the team handles it.

As to $300 mil over 10 in 2021... lets look at some big deals...

From Cot's - $300+ mil deals as of 2021...

• Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30)
• Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32)
• Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34) - best comparison
• Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31)
• Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
• Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28)
• Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)

So 1 kid and a bath of vets - Trout was always in his own class, Betts was damn good, Harper an MVP a few years earlier, Stanton 2nd in MVP the year before signing, Cole 2nd in Cy voting, Machado 3 times a top 10 MVP before age 26 when he signed. Then you have Tatis - signed before age 22 season, 4th in MVP voting the season before signing. After 2021 the Jays would've been reasonable to do the same deal with Vlad (or a similar one) but Vlad was at 1B, Tatis a SS/OF who'd miss the '22 season due to PEDs and injuries (making the deal look like it might be a bust or even voided). Tatis has 21.7 bWAR despite that lost season vs Vlad's 21.5 - both came up in 2019. There is no question which is the better player but Vlad thinks of himself as the best in spite of the facts. A key part to being a star is to think that, while still trying to be better imo.

Would losing Vlad as a free agent hurt? You damn well bet. But is it a 'oh crap this team is doomed dooooomed' moment? No. The Jays survived and thrived post Delgado, post Halladay, post every star that ever has been here pre-2019 and a few post. It hurt losing Semien but the team made the playoffs the next 2 years without him despite missing it with him (7.1 bWAR season so that was a massive hole to fix). Vlad has been the heart and sole of this club but the Jays will exist post Vlad and could thrive without him too - not because of losing him but because this is baseball. No one player dominates like in the NBA/NHL/NFL thus why the Angels sucked despite having 2 generational players at the same time - heck, they had 3 if you count late period Pujols. The Jays never made the playoffs with Halladay or Delgado (well, technically they did win a WS with Delgado in '93 but he was only in 2 games). Would a 14 year $350 mil deal post 2021 have been a good idea with Vlad? Yes. But boy would've it looked bad in '22 and '23. If he has a great year in '25 he'll get his $400-$500 mil next winter from someone, maybe more. But if he has a 22 or 23 type season he'll be in the Alonso situation - demanding mega bucks but no one willing to give it. He might get $200-$300 mil even if he has a 110-120 OPS+ in 2025 but that is about as big as it'd be. A 160+ OPS+ gets him the $400-$500 mil, but I have trouble seeing a path to $600+ unless he can play 3B everyday at a decent level (can't see that happening) in addition to hitting the crap out of the ball.

I should add post 2021 the following $300+ deals were made...

• Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31) in spite of a 3 WAR 2021, the Jays chased hard for him too but Cleveland took the Mets package (inc Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario, and 2 others
• Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31) - a SS with a 142 and 150 OPS+ the previous 2 seasons, 131 lifetime at the time

Now, given you had those 2 signing for that much that off-season would you have offered Vlad the same when he was limited to 1B and comparable in his best season to how both of these guys had hit in the past?

I correctly pointed out that the Ryu signing was a good one after it happened, are we really going back to pat ourselves on the back? For every post you were "correct" about there are many others you were not. There's no purpose to saying what could have been...you don't have any more info than we do but you (greenfrog and ugly) keep insinuating. There's a pattern where you see what the team didnt do and then try to prove how it could have been different.

No need to get upset.

He almost certainly would have taken the deal, and it was a realistic proposal discussed at the time, not just hindsight now.

And we'd be in a much better position now if we had done it.

Fun to look back and wonder 'what if' but we have no idea what Vlad would or would not have taken in 2021 or 2019 or even today. To claim otherwise is foolish unless you have an article where he says 'I will sign for $300 mil'. Logically post 2021 he would've signed for that as it was the established rate for top stars in free agency (see my list above) with the exception of Mike Trout (who was clearly the best player in MLB at the time, with multiple MVP trophies and 2nd place finishes). But again, who knows? Soto wouldn't sign for over $400 million when that would've put him in Troutland cash wise and unlike Vlad he didn't have a HOF dad who was wealthy to give him the safety of saying 'no'.

So I suspect all along Vlad wouldn't have signed for less than Trout did, due to his very big ego and financial safety net. Rumors earlier this winter were that he wanted $450 mil ($100 mil more than the Jays were offering according to reports). Some guys play out their contracts and regret it (Juan González rejecting $120-$140 million over 8 years in the 1999/2000 winter. He went on to have a sub 2 WAR season, just 8.6 the rest of his career, and ultimately made about $46 mil the rest of his career, not chump change but not $120 mil either).

The Ryu signing was good in a symbolic sense. It showed that the front office was willing to spend on free agents.

But he was just OK as a FA signing in terms of on-field performance. The team got two respectable seasons (one was the shortened COVID season) out of him. The other two seasons were largely write-offs. He produced 4.9 WAR in four seasons with Toronto — the same WAR total he produced in his last season with the Dodgers (2019). So the Blue Jays paid $16.3m per WAR for Ryu’s services.

Might a new thread be a good idea given the start of spring training?

I'm sure it will also run up to 300 comments easily as we approach and hit the Guerrero deadline.

I don't think Vladdy is a good long-term investment. He's had a nagging wrist issue for years, his conditioning will always be a concern, as will his motivation - within another 5 years and half a billion dollars in his pockey... will he be running out any ground balls? It's frustrating watching it now.

Similarly, I don't see Bo as a good long-term investment due to his injury issues and swing/approach. I'd like to see both stick around post-2025 but not at the costs/length necessary. They'll likely be fine for 3-4 years and then not so much.

The losses will just sting more because the org doesn't have any apparent up-and-coming players to build around. Maybe that changes this year and Jimenez, Roden, Clase, or Martinez takes a huge step forward...

I have no problem with Vlad testing FA water, especially given what happened with Alonso and his up-and-down performance. If he signs for 10/400ish (value after deferrals), that's fine because he's easy to root for, even with his weaknesses. Besides meaning 2025 was another season gone sideways, I'm okay with trading him at the deadline. I think the chatter is just a distraction at this point, and I'm ready to start hearing "the best shape of my life" comments...

There's no point in dwelling on whether the Jays missed opportunities to lock him up in the past. It's 2025 or bust with this group, and unless something magical happens, it's worth accepting that this core isn't what we thought it was at the start of the decade.

It's 2025 or bust with this group, and unless something magical happens, it's worth accepting that this core isn't what we thought it was at the start of the decade.

It really says something (I'm not entirely sure what) that the most forelonging regret of the Vlad & Bo era for most fans was that the Jays missed the playoffs by a single game in 2021 and didn't resign Marcus Semien coming off his pillow contract.

That the biggest "missed opportunity" was letting a mercenary FA with no other connection to your core walk after a 1-year deal.

The other turning point often mentioned was pivoting towards defense after the 2022 postseason embarrassment by bringing in Varsho and Kiermaier at the cost of Gurriel Jr, Hernandez and Moreno. But TBH, keeping and re-signing Lourdes & Teo still doesn't fix what ails the 2025 core.

I never understood blaming the "core" for the team's failures, when that core were generally amongst the team's best players and also not amongst the most expensive.

AL East payrolls (and rank in mlb)

* NYY: $285M (4)
* TOR: $250M (5)
* BOS: $210M (9)
* BAL: $161M (16)
* TBR: $90M (26)

Wins last year:

* NYY: 94
* BAL: 91
* BOS: 81
* TBR: 80
* TOR: 74

Projected wins in 2025 (ZIPS)

* BAL: 89
* NYY: 89
* BOS: 84
* TBR: 83
* TOR: 82

Farm system rankings (Fangraphs)

* TBR: 1
* BOS: 3
* BAL: 6
* NYY: 8
* TOR: 23

I never understood blaming the "core" for the team's failures, when that core were generally amongst the team's best players and also not amongst the most expensive That’s true for their regular season performance, but not their playoff performance. Here are their slash lines for the playoffs: Vlad- .136/.240/.182 Bo- 273/320/318 Springer - 286/375/286 in 22, 222/222/222 in 23

Bregman signed a 3 year deal with Boston but can opt out after year 1 and 2. This could mean Boston gave up a 2nd round draft pick and had other penalties. SD gave up prospects for 1 year of B Snell. SF got 104IP from Snell but gained a draft pick or SD got the pick.

If this is the way high paying and big trading teams are going to operate then I can see this happening with Bo. I won't comment about Vlad other than to say I hope we can extend him. This whole concept is new to me. Not sure I like it.

Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson

Bo Bichette says he and the #BlueJays "haven't had any talks", but he and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still want to play together forever.

Unlike most, I don't think Vladdy & Bo are good long term investments at their alleged asking price especially the length of the contracts - how the team re-directs that money will determine how history will judge the decision.

BA Farm Rankings
1.BOS (4 ESPN) (13 Bleacher Report) (2 Athletic) (4 USA Today)
6.TB (5 ESPN) (2 Bleacher Report) (9 Athletic) (16 USA Today)
17.BALT (14 ESPN) (24 Bleacher Report) (20 Athletic) (18 USA Today)
23.TOR (24 ESPN) (27 Bleacher Report) (24 Athletic) (30 USA Today)
25.NYY (21 ESPN) (29 Bleacher Report) (21 Athletic) (29 USA Today)

BA 02/05/25
ESPN 01/31/25
Bleacher Report 12/30/24
The Athletic (Keith Law) 01/30/25
USA Today 12/20/24

I think we all sense the most likely scenario here: the Blue Jays are going to take their chances in 2025, make the postseason or not (call it a 50/50 chance, or maybe a 40/60 one), and Vladdy and Bo are going to depart via free agency after the season — or get traded at the deadline if the team is out of it.

Then the semi-rebuilding process will begin, with or without Ross and Mark.

This is how the tea leaves look to me.

For historical rankings from Baseball America I found this link. Jays top 10 in 2002/3/4, 2011/12, 2015, 18/19/20/21 before total collapse. Looking at the chart they always had a crash after each hot streak on the top 10. You'll see similar for every organization, even the Rays had a crash in 14/15/16/17. The Brewers are a crazy one - up and down like a yo-yo. I lost a lot of faith in these rankings way back in the 80's when the Brewers were always at the top but never made the playoffs, then the Jays were at the top in the early 90's, but post 93 didn't win 90 until many, many, many years later (yes, it sucked).

Like all things, I'd rather they were doing better than worse in these rankings, but #1 is are they getting what they need? Horwitz was flipped to get Gimenez, they got help from Schneider, Barger, Jimenez, last year with Orelvis Martinez on the cusp hopefully along with Roden. Francis was developed here after being traded here, we'll see how it all develops but if they get solid regulars annually then the Jays aren't in bad shape. Yeah, Schneider, Barger, Jimenez are all minor parts at the moment, but Schneider was critical to making the '23 playoffs and Barger & Jimenez could get lots of playing time in '25/'26 easily. I really got to get back to finishing the top 30 prospects summary I was building (comparing lists over the years to actual results).

"Vladdy and Bo are going to depart via free agency ..."

Hmmmmm ... I went into my CS time machine and this is what I found out. The Blue Jays signed Vladdy to a long term contract. That's all I was able to discern from my short time in the future.

Could you tell if Canada had become the 51st state?

putin... trump... atkins... all of the world's worst villains are in the ascendant.

It'll be years before I can care about this team again if they let Vladdy go.

Let Vladdy go and shame on him if he signs for 500 million or more and set "deadlines" for the Blue Jays to meet while shutting them out during the season and pretending he always wanted to sign. He'a been hot and cold for his tenure here and he's far from the best players that have performed and earned massive contracts like Mookie Betts. He's a "what if he's a legend" player which is frustrating to project. He lacks the only sure thing in this sport for a player which is a track record.

This FO has not been good enough, Vlad has not been good enough and Bo has been mediocre.

We don't have the facts surrounding the negotiations, so I don't think we can pass judgment on anyone involved. The Blue Jays are clearly willing to spend an enormous amount on the right player (Ohtani, Soto). They just don't see Vladdy as meriting a contract in that tier. Vladdy, on the other hand, is angling for a monster contract. That's his right, and this might be the last contract of his career. He wants to get paid as much as possible and to play where he's wanted and (presumably) for a great and competitive organization. And he doesn't want the distraction of ongoing negotiations during the season, especially during what might be his walk year. That's understandable.