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Yep, we got him.

$15.5M deal for 1 year. No deferrals. Pending a physical.

Max Scherzer will be the first HOF lock on the team in a looooong time (sorry, Vlad doesn't qualify yet). Seems like the last one was Roy Halladay. Max is a lock with 3 Cy's, 216 wins, 5 more times in the top 5 for Cy voting. For such a great pitcher kind of odd the Jays will be his 7th team. 7 years in Washington, 5 Detroit - he will go in the HOF as one of those 2. Drafted by the Cardinals out of high school (43rd round) but didn't sign. Arizona took him later in the first round (11th overall) way back in 2006 - 3 picks later the Jays took Travis Snider who many here will remember. Max isn't the best of that round though - Clayton Kershaw leads with 79.4 bWAR, then Max at 75.4, then Evan Longoria at 58.6 - all taken in the first 11 picks. Brandon Morrow was the 5th pick (by Seattle).

BR projects Max at a 6-5 record over 97 IP 3.71 ERA. FG Steamer has him at a 2.1 fWAR over 128 IP 3.97 ERA, ZiPS has him at 1.4 WAR over 107 IP with a 103 ERA+. I'd say the rotation is now set with Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Scherzer-Francis and a pen of Hoffman-Green-Garcia-Swanson-Sandlin-Little-Rodriguez and the final slot a big battle for Nance-Pop-Burr-and whoever else is in camp.

As others have said in the other thread - he is one of the best to ever pitch here, should he be healthy enough to. In HOF: Halladay (earned it here)-Niekro (0 wins here sadly)-Clemens* (2 pitcher triple crowns here in 2 years, worthy of HOF except by PED moralizing writers)-Jack Morris (ugh) - damn good guys who were close to HOF careers - Dave Stieb (should've won a few Cy's, deserves more HOF consideration imo)-David Wells (53 WAR, 15 of that here)-Jimmy Key and tons of others who were damn good for a few years (Hentgen especially with a Cy here, Carpenter who won a Cy after being developed here).
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92-93 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:08 PM EST (#456350) #
Nice. After Verlander signed, I had this to say here: "If you like Verlander, Scherzer is still available. I get the "raise the floor" argument for Quintana but would prefer to raise the ceiling with Scherzer. He'd be worth a lot more if healthy at the deadline."

If he's only making 15M it tells you what the market thinks about his stuff/health, but it's a good move nonetheless. Not the frontline SP I was hoping for, but a good roll of the dice for just cash. If they can get 100-150 innings out of him, boom.
Eephus - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:09 PM EST (#456351) #
As I said in the other thread, when/if he throws a pitch for the team he'll immediately be one of the best pitchers career-wise to ever do so. Halladay, Stieb, Clemens... Jack Morris? Frank Viola? Henke? Mad Max would be a Top 5 without a doubt I think.
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:14 PM EST (#456352) #
Agreede Eephus - as I've added to the article, wanted to get it up quickly so we could talk about him here. He'll be the 5th HOF'er to pitch here I think (could've missed someone but I don't think I did). Niekro was at the end here, sad that he didn't get more of a shot (was at his first game as a Jay and it was fun to watch him, sadly Jimy Williams had no clue what to do with a knuckleball pitchers - that they need TONS of innings and to be used often as he left him on the bench for 10 days at a time).
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:16 PM EST (#456354) #
Projected payroll for Blue Jays 2025 post Mad Max signing

273,000,000

Thresholds
241,000,000
261,000,000 *currently past
281,000,000
301,000,000
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:21 PM EST (#456355) #
Realistically, is this it for Blue Jays signings this off-season? Or are they going to make one more splash?

Sometimes-accurate Hector Gomez saying that more good news will be coming for Blue Jays fans. Meaning...?
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:29 PM EST (#456356) #
Just 2 things left - either sign Alonso and/or sign Vlad long term. Nothing much else outside of a big trade.
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:31 PM EST (#456357) #
Cot's with Max included has the Jays at $267,230,535 for luxury tax purposes. So an Alonso signing would push them up to the final threshold (roughly $30 mil based on rumors). A long term $40 mil per deal for Vlad would push them to the edge of #3.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:33 PM EST (#456358) #
I assume a Vlad extension would start in 2026 (to preserve some payroll space for 2025).
JohnL - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:34 PM EST (#456359) #
John: He'll be just the fourth HOFer to pitch here. You seem to have installed Clemens ahead of the voters ;-)
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:36 PM EST (#456360) #
Oops, I always mess that up - Clemens was such a dead on lock. Makes no sense to me that the voters who were hyping up the PED users like mad in '98 thus leading to Clemens and Bonds both saying 'screw it' now moralize on it.
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:42 PM EST (#456361) #
So 12 of 13 slots I'd say are locked in stone for the pitching staff, the lineup?
  • C: Kirk/Heineman; 1B: Vlad; 2B: Giménez; 3B: Clement; SS: Bo; LF: Santander; CF: Varsho (when healthy); RF: Springer; DH: ???
  • Backups/DH: take your pick of Jimenez (2B/SS/3B), Schneider (2B/LF), Straw (CF - super unlikely if his pay doesn't count against the payroll right now), Loperfido (OF), Clase (OF), Berroa (OF), Lukes (OF), Orelvis Martinez (2B/3B/SS)
Yeah, Alonso really would look good right now as the 1B/DH with Vlad as 3B/DH/1B in some rotation with Clement mixed in. That'd lock down the team nicely for 2025.
bpoz - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:03 PM EST (#456362) #
I am blown away by the Max Scherzer signing. The Jays chose to overspend for 2025. So 2025 is not a rebuild which I once speculated about. Also 2025 is a minor youth movement rather than a major one IMO.

So no more talk it seems about us being out of it at the trade deadline. Scherzer is solid depth for the rotation. I am getting 2013 vibes at the moment.
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:06 PM EST (#456363) #
I’d expect another bat even if it’s not Alonso or Bregman, though I think the chances of one of them have increased a bit with this signing. A Vladdy extension if it happens will take effect in 2026 so I’m guessing Alonso would be the FO’s preference since they could sign him and hope he opts out after year 1, which would clear payroll room to reload again next winter.
JB21 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:23 PM EST (#456364) #
Couldn't agree more.
Nigel - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:29 PM EST (#456365) #
As I've said elsewhere, I don't totally understand the previous deals (Santander and Gimenez) in a world in which you aren't resigning either or both of Vlad or Bo. But this signing absolutely works in any circumstance and this is the exact swing for the fences for 2025 that they needed to do. Now, if they resign Vlad and move on from Bo, whether by his choice or theirs (after the season or at the trade deadline), then they will have had a pretty thoughtfully executed offseason.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:47 PM EST (#456366) #
Nigel you make it seem like its normal to run a payroll of sub 100 million if they can't resign Vlad and Bo. It's really not normal to spend like the bottom feeders because you don't have stars signed long term. I much prefer they add talent like Santander and Gimenez than not under any circumstance. Spending half a billion or more on two young players doesn't change that, does it?
Nigel - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:58 PM EST (#456367) #
There's no chance that the Jays would run a sub $100m payroll in 2026. That's not even what I've been remotely suggesting.
scottt - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:20 PM EST (#456368) #
I wonder if they'll do some kind of Thunder Dome promo.

The current roster is good enough for me.
I wouldn't mind a right bat that mashes against lefties, but it's probably better to get someone to steal ABs from Springer.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:22 PM EST (#456369) #
" I don't totally understand the previous deals (Santander and Gimenez) in a world in which you aren't resigning either or both of Vlad or Bo."

You're relating Vlad and Bo not signing to two other players signed for 5 more years. Why don't you understand those signings and trades existing in a world without Vlad and Bo? It suggests not signing or trading for those players based on their salary, so take away Vlad, Bo, Santander, Gimenez for 2026. Take out Gauseman and Bassit snd Springer and more after that. You're essentially saying "resign Vlad and Bo" or don't spend money to compete, correct?
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:39 PM EST (#456370) #
Nightingale tweet after the signing: “$15.5 million….and still have interest in signing 1B Pete Alonso if he doesn’t return to the Mets.”
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:49 PM EST (#456371) #
Nigel you see a thoughtfully executed offseason.....i see them throwing money at the problem in any way they can.....

....and i heartily approve.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 09:41 PM EST (#456372) #
AL EAST

NYY - 87 * Division
BOS - 84 ** WC
BAL - 84 ** WC
TB - 83.5
TOR - 83

AL CENTRAL

MIN - 92 * Division
KC - 81
DET - 81
CLE - 77
CWS - 63

AL WEST

TEX - 85 Division
HOU - 84 ** WC
SEA - 82
LAA - 76
OAK - 76

----------

NL East
ATL - 93 * Division
PHI - 87 ** WC
NYM - 87 **WC
WAS - 76
FLA - 72

NL Central
CHC - 83 * Division
STL - 82
MIL - 81
PIT - 79
CIN - 78

NL West
LAD - 94 * Division
AZ - 86 ** WC
SFG - 82
SD - 82
COL - 64
mathesond - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:29 PM EST (#456373) #
I usually take the optimistic view on their trades and signings, but for some reason I get a Jack Morris/Dave Stewart vibe from this signing. Granted, it looks like he slots in as a #4 starter, unlike Morris and Stewart, nevertheless I fear his numbers will be disappointing relative to expectations.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:35 PM EST (#456374) #
I don’t think there’s any mystifying rhyme or reason to the sudden spending which is why I said in October (and began to walk back, until the Jeff Hoffman signing) that we are about to enter unprecedented spending. The most obvious reason is that this team needs to make the playoffs this year or Shapiro and Atkins are both gone. It was true last June when it became obvious the team stunk and it is true now with it becoming clear the Jays have a good chance to be good if not great in ‘25. I couldn’t be happier. If this team is able to to pull off a Bregman or an Alonso, it will have done what they should have been doing ever since those losses in the playoffs which is act like a huge market team…because they are.
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:51 PM EST (#456375) #
yep, and not just about making the playoffs but crucially about not suffering the disaster of losing vladdy.

so much at stake for this franchise right now. glad they realize it.
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:54 PM EST (#456376) #
From Hector Gomez: “SOURCE: Talks between the #BlueJays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are flowing satisfactorily regarding a possible contract extension. The Jays are getting closer to what Vladdy Jr. is looking for.”
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 11:03 PM EST (#456377) #
Rogers being willing to spend this much, and possibly more if Alonso is next, is a good sign moving forward regardless of how 2025 ends up. You can really see the potential this franchise has if they ever get to a point where they are developing talent well.
92-93 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 11:08 PM EST (#456378) #
The Jays O/U win total moved from 76.5 to 78.5 tonight. WAR in action.
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