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Well, the winter keeps going and we're nearing Spring Training so what is the status vs past Jays teams?

Using fWAR by primary position (IE: a guy might have played at DH as well as C but all their stats show up at C due to how FG only has full splits from 2002 on and I want to capture the 83-93 contending stretch for comparisons)
Note: Players can be listed at multiple positions it seems as their 'primary position' thus Bautista and Encarnacion at 3B in 2010. Not exactly fair, but this gives a good idea of how strong or weak the Jays were at various positions over the years.  1987 shows how you can have a MASSIVE hole at a position (2B) and still win 97 games (Gillick really screwed the pooch that year by not improving 2B at any point as even 1 WAR there would've got them into a tie breaker at least).  DH was ugly in '89 and '85 (both division champs).  RF is funny - Bautista the main man both in the best year for our RF's and in the worst year for it.  We also see some bad years can have amazing performances at a single position but it is a team game (see RF in 2010 and 2011, both 4th place finishes).

So what is projected for this year and where does it land? Using ZiPS since it lists by position totals. If tied I list the years it ties with, if not then I list the year above and the year below (normally a 0.1 spread on each side).  This should give us an idea as to what to expect based on history.
  • C: 3.5 - 9th (1988-2024)
  • 1B: 3.8 -18th (2001-2023)
  • 2B: 3.9 -12th (2009-1982)
  • 3B: 2.0 -25th (tied with 2007)
  • SS: 3.3 -16th (2015-2013)
  • LF: 2.2 -21st (tied with 2019 & 2018)
  • CF: 2.9 -20th (tied with 2021)
  • RF: 1.6 -33rd (tied with 2000)
  • DH: 2.0 -18th (tied 2021, 1998, 1996)
  • SP: 13.8 -11th (1983-2016)
  • RP: 3.2 -18th (2008-2015)
Note: Put Santander's 2.2 projection in LF, the 2.0 for LF to DH figuring whoever would've been in LF would now DH given DH was at 0.9. At 0.9 DH would've been 27th tied with 2004.

Catcher is a top 10 all time Jays position right now with Kirk, our Starters despite the fear are also on the edge of being top 10 Jays all time.  If Alonso is added DH would climb from 0.9 to 2.0 to 3.0 (his ZIPs projection figuring DH would mostly be a mix of him and Vlad who is over 3 in projections) which would push it to 12th all time (tied with 2005).  Bregman would push 3B to 3.3 from 2.0 - a similar jump if you assume DH is now at 2.0 - and goes from 25th all time to a tie for 17th (1987).  Do both and that adds 2.3 wins to the projections overall which is very big (maybe more as the bench jumps then with Clement moving to a bench role, and the kids left in AAA or used to trade for more pitching).  Of course, this is all projection which can be very wrong, but it is the best guess we have for 2025.

I did a division comparison earlier with ZiPS where the Jays were 1st at 1B, 2B; 2nd at C, SS, CF; 3rd nowhere; 4th at LF (move to 3rd with Santander ahead of the Yanks), SP; 5th at 3B, DH (Santander in LF old LF to DH moves it to 1st in division), RF, RP and overall (ahead of the Rays & Red Sox overall with Santander added in over DH's).  Yeah, the DH's in our division suck this year - only Boston was expected to be at 2.0 pre-Santander signing.  Of course, I'm not factoring in any changes the 4 other teams in the division made since the projections were made as I don't feel like doing that much digging to be honest.  Once all ZiPs are done for all teams they'll have a good summary available to use just before the season starts and hopefully the Jays add more to make it look better.
Comparison of Jays Past by Position | 90 comments | Create New Account
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dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 10:56 AM EST (#456165) #
Thanks John, so:

About 42 WAR not including bench

DH and 3B are big areas for improvement

When Vlad and Bo are gone this is a last place team

JB21 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 01:56 PM EST (#456169) #
Is this adjusted by PA? 8.5 WAR by the DH's 2022 seems high. I assume it includes their stats from other positions too?
John Northey - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 02:37 PM EST (#456170) #
Yep, it includes their other positions as FG doesn't limit it to just the one (as I mention for 3B). I'm hopeful they expand it beyond the 2002-2024 range someday for pure 'at that position' stats, but I doubt it is a high priority for them and I felt that limiting it to the past 22 years was a bit small of a sample given the best years were 1983-1993 (2 titles, 5 playoffs, all over 500).
John Northey - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 02:59 PM EST (#456171) #
The big question now for the Jays is how to impact the team the most. A starting pitcher might do that due to the unknowns with Yariel Rodríguez (just 86 2/3 ML innings) and Bowden Francis (half season for the ages, but the rest was not as good but 140 2/3 lifetime ML innings with a 143 ERA+ looks damn good, but as recently as 2022 he looked like toast with a 6.59 ERA in AAA over 98 1/3 IP thanks to 2.1 HR/9). Both Rodriguez and Francis have the potential to be very solid starters but do I trust them both to do it in '25 when neither has a full ML season of doing that? Nope.

I suspect at this point Atkins is holding on waiting for players to come to him - Jack Flaherty, Andrew Heaney, and Nick Pivetta all have the potential to be useful starters but all are probably demanding too much. I'm betting the Jays have a set figure in mind for each that is acceptable and a figure that is 'ding ding ding - we have a winner'. I suspect Pivetta is really regretting not taking that QO now. For the pen David Robertson could be the best left, as could Kenley Jansen among others. A few LH are there too - Jalen Beeks, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander, Ryan Borucki, none are too exciting though - but any could help the pen here by giving us a decent 2nd LH with experience.

The hitters we've been through a lot - Alonso and Bregman the only ones that really move the needle. No others would be a big upgrade, if at all, on what we have. Yasmani Grandal might be interesting as a backup catcher, as recently as '21 he had a 157 wRC+ but the 3 years since he has been sub 100 every season (pre-22 he was over 100 every year). Entering his age 36 season he is nothing more than a backup, but one with lots of experience and can still hit the ball now and then. Guys like him raise the floor for the Jays, help ensure that if someone gets hurt it isn't a total disaster. Right now if Kirk goes down we're screwed for example. There are probably a few others, but not many, who could help raise the floor on this team, but the goal mostly is to raise the ceiling and outside of Alonso/Bregman there isn't anyone on the market who does that unless the Jays do a trade. Btw, the latest from SD is they are determined to stay a top 10 payroll team (ie: try to compete withe the Dodgers) so I doubt they'll do the fire sale I was hoping for. Ah well.
lexomatic - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 03:07 PM EST (#456172) #
Yep, it includes their other positions as FG doesn't limit it to just the one (as I mention for 3B). I'm hopeful they expand it beyond the 2002-2024 range someday for pure 'at that position' stats, but I doubt it is a high priority for them and I felt that limiting it to the past 22 years was a bit small of a sample given the best years were 1983-1993 (2 titles, 5 playoffs, all over 500).
For future reference you CAN break it down by position. On the Leaderboards, you go to the positions section at the top, and select the position you want for positional split.
E.G 2024Turner 71 GP 278 PA 0.5 WARHorwitz 15 75 0.5Guerrero 29 128 0.4Kirk 5 21 0.3Springer 20 96 0.1Barger 1 2 0Jansen 4 2 0Wagner 1 1 0Schneider 1 2 -0.1Vogerlbach 20 68  -0.3
lexomatic - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 03:22 PM EST (#456173) #
Ugh I hate trying to format on this boardWas curious about 3B so...
  • Clement 81 G 277 PA 1.0 WAR (259/280/391) 3.6 D
  • Guerrero Jr 20 G 50 PA 0.7 WAR (404/440/553) 0.7 D
  • Kiner-Falefa 36 G 126 PA 0.6 WAR (254/290/415) 2.1 D
  • Turner 5 G 19 PA 0.2 WAR (375/421/625) -0.9 D
  • Barger 33 G 115 PA 0.0 WAR (212/272/413) -3.4 D
  • De Los Santos 11 G 29 PA -0.1 WAR (185/241/259) 0 D
  • Biggio 3 G 6 PA -0.1 WAR (0/0/0) 0.3 D
  • TOTAL 162 G 622 PA 2.2 WAR (259/293/409) 2.4 D
ayjackson - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 03:50 PM EST (#456174) #
I didn't realize Clement was DHing that much.
lexomatic - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 03:53 PM EST (#456175) #
That last post was 3B not DH. Clement didn't DH
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 04:27 PM EST (#456176) #
The problem with Adam Lind was the obsession of having face lefties.

2010 is the year Bautista hit 54 HRs. That can help people forget about your defense.
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 04:33 PM EST (#456177) #
For catchers, throwing is more important than ever.
I don't see guys over 35 making comebacks.

San Diego is going to be in a long rebuild once they are stuck with all the back loaded contracts.
There's no reason to hasten that.
The Soto trade was really good for them.
It's hard to find teams with money and controllable talent to blow to improve a single position.
It shows how crazy the Angels were in holding on to Othani and even buying at the deadline.
John Northey - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 05:11 PM EST (#456178) #
lexomatic - yes, as I said for 2002-2024 they have full details by position, but for 1977-2001 you are limited to 'primary position'. Quite frustrating, but understandable. Given I wanted to compare all I figured best to stick to one method for all rather than doing 2 sets of data where pre 2002 it was primary position and post it was pure position. Checking 2010 it was Bautista (47 G), Encarnacion (95 G), McDonald (15 G), Hoffpair (10 G), and McCoy for 1 game. Forgot how much EE played 3B back then. But go back to pre 2002 and you get nothing.
dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 05:55 PM EST (#456179) #
Alonso should be a simple thing for Atkins. If you can resign Vlad in the next two weeks then don't sign Alonso unless it falls into your price. If you aren't signing Vlad shortly then you have to sign Alonso.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 08:34 PM EST (#456180) #
Maybe Boras is waiting to see what he can extract from the Blue Jays for Alonso once Vladdy’s deadline to sign an extension has come and gone.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 08:40 PM EST (#456181) #
The Cubs have acquired Pressly. Does this mean the Astros are going to re-sign Bregman?

This could be something else Boras is waiting on. Once Bregman is off the market, Alonso will be the only remaining impact bat on the FA market, which could spark renewed interest in signing him.
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 08:50 PM EST (#456182) #
It looks like it's Blue Jays or Mets for Alonso. Boston is not really interested. The Angels don't seem to be serious.
dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 10:55 PM EST (#456183) #
Didn't the Astros just go on record to say they aren't signing him?
dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 10:58 PM EST (#456184) #
Astros GM Dana Brown addressed the situation with MLB.com’s Brian McTagggart and other media members today, saying that the club indeed “had some conversations” with Bregman’s camp, with those talks moving in a “positive” direction. While Brown described re-signing Bregman as “a longshot,” he noted that the door wasn’t closed on the chances of a reunion between the two sides.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:12 AM EST (#456185) #
Connected people saying Alonso has highest offer from Jays but he wants the Mets to match. They're used for leverage and won't sign here unless the Mets don't increase their offer.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:52 AM EST (#456186) #
The Mets owner talked about not liking the structure of what Boras proposes. Maybe too many years? The Jays would probably not want an opt out after the first year while the Mets might not care if they have eyes on Guerrero.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:55 AM EST (#456187) #
The Astros have a 5 year offer for Bregman but he wants 7. So far, it seems nobody wants to do 6. Boston might be interested for 3 years with higher AAV or something like that.
Gerry - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 07:57 AM EST (#456188) #
Keith Law has published his top 100 prospects. Arjun Nimmala checks in at number 71 and Trey Yesavage at 96.
ayjackson - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:22 AM EST (#456189) #
I guess Law got busy after JN passive-aggressively referred to the Bowden list as The Athletic Top 100. Well done, John.

A lot of Red Sox on the top of that list. If we were to trade Vlad, some of those names look pretty enticing.

He's probably just a singles hitter at Fenway (line drives off the wall). ;)
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:24 AM EST (#456190) #
"The Athletic reported the 6-year, $156 million offer the Astros made to Bregman earlier this offseason is still on the table. The Astros are one of at least three teams to have offered Bregman a deal of five years or longer this offseason, four league sources tell KPRC 2 Sports."

"However, on Thursday, news broke that the Astros aren't necessarily out of the running, as had been previously thought. If they could trade reliever Ryan Pressly and free up money, they could bring Bregman back, put Paredes at second and Jose Altuve in left field."
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:39 AM EST (#456192) #
Vladimir Guerrero Jr x Fenway Park

Games - 46
Singles - 36
Doubles - 18
HR -12
Runs - 29
RBI - 44

AVG - .343
OPS - 1.013
wRC+ - 179
ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:56 AM EST (#456193) #
I would hope that the Jays wouldn't try to top 6/156 for Bregman. Clement and Bargar can adequately cover third for a lot less money and not that much less value. Alonso would be a much better fit, if he'd agree to DH at least part of the time. I can't see running Vlad out at third base for the majority of the season.

dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:00 AM EST (#456194) #
I don't think you're seeing how poor our 3B ranks offensively and I don't think Clement and Barger make that up. 3B can't be one of the weakest offensive spots in the line up.
christaylor - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:41 AM EST (#456195) #
From mlbtraderumors:

"Pressly will receive a new no-trade clause, plus an assignment bonus to cover the tax difference in relocating from Texas to Illinois. The trade will become official once the standard medical reviews are complete."

The above is the most explicit statement I've seen that players care about the difference in tax rates across jurisdictions. The Jays coming in second in bidding has to do with the double whammy of the tax rate in Canada and the exchange rate. I suspect they are trying, but the Jays probably need to be more aggressive and/or creative in finding ways around these disadvantages.

I want to see Bregman or Alonso to the Jays with a player-favorable opt-out, but I don't see the likelihood being that high. I wonder if the FO wants to go all-in, but ownership is pushing back, not wanting to hamstring themselves if they change the FO and tear the team down over the next year.
greenfrog - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 10:13 AM EST (#456196) #
Does anyone know the team’s projected win total after the Hoffman and Santander acquisitions? Are they currently in a projected WC position?
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 10:53 AM EST (#456197) #
It shouldn't be shocking that a guy signed to a low tax state wants compensation to waive his no trade clause and be traded to a higher tax state.
In the NHL, low tax states have dominated since the adoption of a salary cap.
Florida and Tampa are there every year despite having low attendance, which means the cap is too low.

The Jays is near the second tier of luxury tax. That's pretty amazing considering the economic climate.
The issue with Bregman is not the money he wants this year, it's the money he wants after 2029.
92-93 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 10:56 AM EST (#456198) #
Vegas has the Jays O/U at 76.5. Vegas doesn't care about defensive WAR.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 10:59 AM EST (#456199) #
It depends a lot more on how they play then on who they add.
They could add 1 or 2 WAR but the variability is plus or minus 12.
christaylor - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 11:06 AM EST (#456200) #
It's not shocking -- this was merely an unusually transparent revealing of usually hidden preferences.

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHL's solution to the tax/currency issue is to raise the cap as is rumored and let teams impose self-constraints as in MLB.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 11:14 AM EST (#456201) #
Any position can be the weakest. If the Jays have 4 WAR at 3B, it's all good.
McAdoo is a non roster invitee. Kasevich can play 3B. So can Jimenez.

ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 11:33 AM EST (#456202) #
I know Bregman would be better than what we have at third but I'd rather Alonso for 3 years than Bregman at 6 or even 5 years. Also, if Vlad could even play half of the games at third, that would raise the WAR there. OF course, there's a good possibility that the Jays could end up without either of Bregman or Alonso.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 11:48 AM EST (#456203) #
"Any position can be the weakest. If the Jays have 4 WAR at 3B, it's all good."

No Scottt, 4 WAR at 3B is not good for my particular point which is about offense at 3B. Generally speaking if you are chasing total WAR then yes 4 WAR is all good, however, regarding offensive upgrades, 4 WAR at 3B is no bueno unless it is comprised mostly of offensive WAR, which would not be the case with Barger and Clement but can be the case with Vlad or Bregman at 3B.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:02 PM EST (#456204) #
Projected standings per Fangraphs:

AL East

NYY - 87 * Division
BOS - 84 ** WC
BAL - 84 ** WC
TB - 81
TOR - 81

AL CENTRAL

MIN - 92 * Division
KC - 81
DET - 81
CLE - 77
CWS - 63

AL WEST

TEX - 85 Division
HOU - 84 ** WC
SEA - 82
LAA - 76
OAK - 76

----------

NL East
ATL - 93 * Division
PHI - 87 ** WC
NYM - 87 **WC
WAS - 76
FLA - 72

NL Central
CHC - 83 * Division
STL - 82
MIL - 81
PIT - 79
CIN - 78

NL West
LAD - 94 * Division
AZ - 86 ** WC
SFG - 82
SD - 82
COL - 64
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:10 PM EST (#456205) #
87 wins the division? I don't believe that.
The last time this happened was way back in 2000.
The Jays had a rotation of David Wells, Kelvim Escobar, Chris Carpenter, Frank Castillo and Esteban Loaiza.
They lost their chance mostly because Roy Halladay went 4-7 with an ERA over 10.

The main takeaway is that all teams are in it.
That 6 game spread is the smallest of all divisions.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:10 PM EST (#456206) #
Toronto is an Alonso and Scherzer away from contention. They are a Bregman and Flaherty away from competing evenly against the NYY, NYM, PHI and other top teams.

Boston is good and likely waiting to spend big next offseason but can become a top team with a Bregman signing.

Detroit can become a contender by signing Bregman.

Houston can become a top team with NYY if they resign Bregman.

Alonso and Bregman can determine a lot in terms of competitiveness for the AL if they sign there. Toronto to me has the most to lose by not signing one of them and this is for 2025 only. They still need to re-sign Vlad.

Otherwise I'd have to start to agree with the many posters (and some players) who are suggesting they just want to have a chance to make the WC. The other issue these posters bring up is that the Jays can be a top team if:

> Vladdy has career year again
> Bo becomes a top hitter with career year
> Barger or Loperfido break out and contribute 3 WAR or more
> The SP rotation maintains or improves of previous two years
> Kirk plays the whole year strong
> Springer has a bounce back
> Garcia needs to be lights out again with Hoffman lights out and Little and Green being lights out, essentially

This is wishful thinking and I can see now why there is frustration that Rogers operates the team at a limit of 81 projected wins, behind SEA which is a team that can't actually afford to sign free agents.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:19 PM EST (#456207) #
Vlad could have his third best year and Bo just be his average self and they're probably doing very well.
Judge stubs his toe again and the Yankees could be dead last.
It's that close. 
Hoffman, Green and Garcia just need to average what they've done in the last couple of years.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:19 PM EST (#456208) #
Scott these are projections. Injuries will change everything. Look at the Texas Rangers. When Cory Seager gets injured they likely go from the top team in the division to 3rd best. If Judge and Stanton get injured the NYY can go from 1st to 5th.

I'd like the Jays to be where the Orioles and Red Sox are at in terms of expected wins going into the season instead of Seattle and Detroit. If money isn't an issue they can easily do that simply by adding better arms. Max Scherzer gets them up to the Red Sox and Orioles and adding Alonso would get them over. Then the only real weakness is the farm which they can have more time to try to fix with their current roster.

The other shoe to drop is the trade of the surplus infielders. They easily should be able to trade from Loperfido, Barger, Clement, Schneider, Kasevich to get another 2-4 WAR in the form of a more expensive and established player.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:25 PM EST (#456209) #
Scottt the difference between our approaches is that with your approach Vlad and Bo can have career years and the Jays can still miss the playoffs. Even if they make the playoffs they will be eliminated in the first round. This has happened multiple times.

Your approach also has a reliance on the other teams to have injury and to not improve as the year goes on (prospect call ups, trade deadline additions). It's an approach that the NYY, BAL, BOS, NYM, PHI, AZ, ATL, HOU, TEX, LAD and other playoff teams do not take.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail."

Maybe Mark needs that hanging in his office.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:27 PM EST (#456210) #
It's all projections, yes.
And adding a top bat only adds 1 win or 2.
It doesn't change things radically unless the guy added has a career year and it's very unlikely that happens to an older hitter in a new park.

With Bo at short, they need top defense at 3B.
It's more important than anything else.
Gimenez covers so much ground, Vladdy can basically cover the line on every play and Bichette can stay closer to 3B.

They cannot get another 3 or 4 WAR by trading for a position players.
That's make believe.
They could probably get that out of the bench if they go beyond the defensive backups and pinch runners.
Just getting a guy who hits lefties well would help.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:28 PM EST (#456211) #
I did not anticipate that Ryan Pressly would be making 15 million/year. Clearly the Astros have strong interest to bringing Bregman back and moving Paredes to 2B and Altuve to the OF.
greenfrog - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:36 PM EST (#456212) #
A while back Jim Bowden thought Bregman might be a good add for Toronto, not only for his on-field performance but also for the leadership and toughness he provides. Bowden thought the Blue Jays could use an infusion of those qualities (although I don’t know how he squares that with the trash can scandal).
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:36 PM EST (#456213) #
"And adding a top bat only adds 1 win or 2."

2.1 is the lowest WAR Pete Alonso has ever had. Usually 3 WAR or higher for him.



"They cannot get another 3 or 4 WAR by trading for a position players.
That's make believe."

They literally did this a month ago with the Gimenez trade. They could also trade for Arenado or Arraez or Robert Jr using their depth pieces as an example. They could've traded for Josh Naylor.



"They could probably get that out of the bench if they go beyond the defensive backups and pinch runners."

I find this comment to be closer to "make believe." You can't play all of these guys at the same time.
greenfrog - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:43 PM EST (#456214) #
No matter how much the Blue Jays spend this off-season, the core problem is the organization’s failure to internally develop young talent (pitchers especially). This is a very expensive roster for the wins it’s projected to amass.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:51 PM EST (#456215) #
I think so to greenfrog, but considering they have some of the best talent they've ever had for another year at least, they are against doing a rebuild and they're willing to spend more in some capacity, don't you think they should spend 15% more and not only compete but also make it easier to better the farm since they won't have to promote aggressively in '25 and '26 ad they would with a sell off?

John Northey - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 01:57 PM EST (#456216) #
I think the Jays are following a budget and being quite smart this winter about it - they want to stay close to the CBT so they can push under if needed, the creative deal with Santander made that possible (CBT hit of under $14 mil a year). The inventive $2 mil cap space for IFA for a stack of cash that doesn't affect the CBT but gives Buffalo a speedy high end defensive OF was smart too (should help pitchers down there be more aggressive). They got Hoffman for millions less than at least 2 other teams were willing to pay thanks to being willing to live with injury potential, trusting that their high performance team can keep his arm in one piece for 3 years (fingers crossed).

Now with Alonso they are one of 2 teams willing to sign him it seems. He wants to stay with the Mets, but the Jays are making it hard on them. Bregman is a tough one - he wants a 7 year deal but no sane GM will give him that unless they feel the cost is justified in the first 5 (ages 31-35) as most players post 35 are toast with very rare non-PED exceptions. A 6 year deal I can see working, just 1 to write off with luck, but 7? That is really pushing it. Odds are he'll be a 4 WAR guy with a 120 OPS+ (ballparking from his recent stats). Clement was a 3.4 with a 95 OPS+ last year so the gain is 100% in offense, which we could get by Vlad playing there more often. So is it worth the long term risk for short term gain? Maybe, but I wouldn't go past 5 years or $150 mil total for his deal (6 or 7 for $150 mil sure, but $30 per for 5 is the most I see him being worth). A shame Oakland doesn't have another great 3B ready to be traded for (hey, it worked twice, why not a third time? Oh yeah, their current 3B had a 87 OPS+ last year). Sadly the best 3B available in trade is Nolan Arenado who I can't imagine accepting a trade here.
bpoz - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 02:15 PM EST (#456217) #
I don't have any faith in Fangraphs projected standings.
Michael - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 02:53 PM EST (#456218) #
The projected standings are just individual team over/under lines, so it isn't saying 87 wins would win the division so much as saying the top expected team is one that is expected to be over/under 87 wins, but if it wins exactly 87 wins you'd likely expect it wouldn't win the division because one of the teams behind it likely is +10 wins (and one -10 wins). But if each team is a random walk away from this projected point the team with the highest expectation will win most often, but the winning team in the division would still likely be 95+ wins or whatever, you just don't project which team it would be (because any single team that you project to win 94+ wins in the AL East would be favored on an under bet). That said the projections aren't quite balanced as they are one win under in the AL and 9 wins over in the NL unless I messed up the addition (this could be rounding errors on a per team basis adding up).

Still might be a reason to trust/not trust the projections, but they likely track the team decently well. The Vegas over/under is a little hard to tell too as if the Jays aren't in it mid-season, they may sell off which means that if the team were say a true talent 81 wins team you might expect much of the time (say 2/3+) they wouldn't be in it midseason and sell off, and that might have them finish 75 wins instead of 81 even if they were 81 win talent heading for 81 wins in the first half.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 03:36 PM EST (#456219) #
Pretty amazing follow up post Michael, thanks for clarifying.
John Northey - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:33 PM EST (#456220) #
For fun FanGraphs Facebook page listed each teams FA spending the past 2 offseasons - Mets and Dodgers over a billion, everyone else under $500 million. Jays #8 at $185 mil - less than $20 mil ahead of Texas and Houston, but within $21 mil of the Phillies and Cubs. If the Jays sign Alonso (rumored to be for $80-90 mil) they'd move within eyeshot of the #5 Yankees $278 mil, but #4 Arizona $372 mil is too far to reach unless they sign both Alonso and Bregman while #3 SF $492 mil would need them to find even more guys to sign.

So the Jays haven't been cheap (sub $10 mil are Twins and Marlins - they are cheap). The rest of the AL East are Red Sox #14 $109 mil, O's #18 $84 mil, Rays #26 $21 mil. If I was an O's fan I'd be pissed about that - any number of starters or relievers would've been a massive upgrade for them, and their 1B/DH situation is weak (both projected sub 2 WAR) so they should be deep in on Alonso but aren't. Charlie Morton ain't that big a plus, and Tomoyuki Sugano would've been wow 5 years ago but at 35 who knows? And Andrew Kittredge in the pen is again, nice, but nothing to write home about. Their big one was Tyler O'Neill who can't hit RHP but is damn nice vs LHP I know if the Jays were in the playoffs and knocked out 2 years in a row in round 1 with obvious weaknesses how we'd react if that was it in the offseason - even more anger than we were seeing pre-Santander (see last winter with Kiemaier, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Justin Turner signed. Yariel Rodríguez was nice but seen more as a prospect - and those guys were more than the O's did this winter.
Marc Hulet - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:50 PM EST (#456221) #
Eye balling the quality of the AL East rosters and their potential 2025 depth, I see New York first, Baltimore and Boston fighting for 2/3 while Toronto and Tampa Bay fight for 4/5.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 06:53 PM EST (#456222) #
The pitching is mostly injury related.
The only team that impresses me with their internally developed players is Baltimore and that's all they did.
Also, they have extended 0 players so far. Rustschman will be a free agent 2 years after Vlad.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 06:56 PM EST (#456223) #
" Marc Hulet - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:50 PM EST (#456221) #
Eye balling the quality of the AL East rosters and their potential 2025 depth, I see New York first, Baltimore and Boston fighting for 2/3 while Toronto and Tampa Bay fight for 4/5."

So the same as Fangraphs projected standings said.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 07:45 PM EST (#456224) #
The Rays haven't done anything all winter except sign Jansen.
The biggest thing with them is where they will play.
The house of horror was a pitcher's park.
They could struggle playing in a minor park instead.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:04 PM EST (#456225) #
I think their rookie is going to be a power hitting HR machine in that park. Hopefully I am wrong.
uglyone - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:21 PM EST (#456226) #
"No matter how much the Blue Jays spend this off-season, the core problem is the organization’s failure to internally develop young talent (pitchers especially)."

i wonder if this is actually true tho.

last year for example they got plenty of value from dirt cheap players like Clement Horwitz Francis. this year they have even more good candidates to do the same.
greenfrog - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:05 PM EST (#456227) #
The front office has developed some good players over the last decade (a long time in MLB). They just haven’t developed enough of them. Plus, they haven’t obtained a tonne of high-quality playing time from the players who have worked out. Even the best ones, like Bichette and Manoah, have struggled and/or been sidelined with injuries for stretches of time. Clement, Horwitz, Francis — all small sample sizes so far.

dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:21 PM EST (#456228) #
I believe you can count on one hand the amount of teams that have developed strong young players in their system...players who were not sure-fire top draft picks.

LAD
CLE
SEA
SD

That's about all I would count as exceptions not the rule. These teams have shown an ability to develop all types of prospects and for a long time and without the aid of lop-sided draft help ala Cubs, Orioles, Astros (still good teams with young talent but not nearly as good without the aid of tanking in the beginning).
vw_fan17 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:49 PM EST (#456229) #
christaylor: why is the exchange rate an issue for the Jays? Aren't players paid in $US, so it's not relevant?

And why is raising the NHL cap a solution? Lots of teams are spending to the cap (or really close to it) who would probably keep spending to the new limits - but the ones in lower-tax states are getting better bang-for-buck because the players get more after-tax $$, so they can sign a good player for $7M / year instead of $8M / year and sign a better quality roster for the same overall cap hit. I'm sure Leafs would spend $100M and beyond - but if Dallas can spend the same, then they'll end up with better players..
John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 01:31 AM EST (#456230) #
Looking at projections more I think RF is our biggest issue here - and the hardest to fix due to Springer being a 'proven vet' who has 'earned his shot'. I'd be damn impressed if Atkins can find the guts and a way to trade him (even in a bad contract for bad contract situation). Springer is owed $48.3 mil over the next two years. SD has Joe Musgrove owed $60 mil over 3 (less of a cap hit in '25 than Springer) and we could use a starter more than an OF. Padres currently have a kid in LF - Tirso Ornelas - with 0 ML experience so they might be open to it (decent prospect, but just a 90-95 wRC+ projection for '25 and sub 1 WAR). The higher luxury tax hit in '25/'26 is balanced by the Jays then paying for Musgrove in '27. We know they'd love to dump Jake Cronenworth but his $72.7 mil over 6 years is a bit much even if he slots almost perfectly into the Horwitz slot (DH/1B backup who can cover 2B when needed and even has SS ML experience plus some 3B in the minors). Y'know, he might actually be useful, but he is pure bat with poor D so maybe not but his $12 mil hit on the CBT is very manageable if we clear out Springer.

I think I'm overthinking this all. Price of it being 1:30 AM and being dead tired but trouble sleeping.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 02:10 AM EST (#456231) #
Looking at Keith Law's Top 100 it is confusing. For Nimmala he says he is every bit the talent he saw in '23 (top 10) but dropped him in the rankings from 59 to 71. Weird. Yesavage at 96 he sees as a #3 starter (ranked him 13th in the draft he didn't pitch as a pro in '24). And that is it.

Of note: he ignores anyone coming from Japan or who was just signed as an IFA due to very low scouting on the IFA and the Japanese being, basically, ML'ers when signing. Can't argue with that as it makes perfect sense to me.
Michael - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 02:42 AM EST (#456232) #
Right all contracts are in USD so the exchange rate isn't a problem for the players signing here. It may be a problem for the Jays organization (although I think I read they lock in the exchange rate for contracts on signing so they shouldn't have short term currency risk).

I also think the reporting that is often done about contracts with "amount spent" is silly as people often report on the total amount of contracts, when it is really the amount per year (and really amount per year, per player, over minimum salary) that matters most. Like if I sign/extend 10 25 year old players to 10 year 5M/year deals I've "signed" $500M in contracts, but that is in many ways much less than if you signed 3 player to 1 year $100M/year each contracts even though you've signed just $300M to my $500M. The length of contract matters in so much as many of the players signed to long term contracts will not still be providing value in the later years of the contracts, but to pretend everything is just total contract amount is a silly way to compare who are spenders and who aren't.
scottt - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 07:09 AM EST (#456233) #
The cap needs to be high enough that teams in Florida lose money if they pay up to it.

Now, if people in Texas starts to care about hockey, that's a different problem.

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 09:07 AM EST (#456234) #
I don't believe exchange rate is an issue...I recall reading something a few years ago (maybe Forbes?) that said the Jays operate their payroll finances out of the US so everything coming in and going out is American dollars.
Joe - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 10:18 AM EST (#456235) #
A company the size of the Blue Jays (and Rogers in general, of course) will also hedge out USD/CAD exchange rate risks, so while all the income they make is in CAD, it's not like they're going to be meaningfully affected by shifts in the exchange rate over time.
bpoz - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 11:28 AM EST (#456236) #
I have been wondering how the Jays can build a 95 win team.

1) Sign 3 expensive FAs in 1 off season. They have to actually do this not "we were close" because that means we did not do it. So we don't know how true/serious the offers were. I would not make this statement sign 3 expensive FAs because it has not happened.

2) Trade for very good players. We did this with Donaldson, Berrios, Chapman and Gimenez. So it is possible.

3) Develop our own great/v good players. We did this with Vlad, Bo and Manoah (just my personal evaluation).

3b) V good players would be Kirk, Moreno, Gurriel, Teo and Romano. Maybe Jansen, Y Rodriguez and B Francis. IMO Gurriel & Teo were experimented with because we were not competing but rebuilding. Rodriguez and Francis were given the opportunity because we were not competing at that stage and Kikuchi was traded.

Since I said "build" that disqualifies good and bad luck.

It seems 2025 is not a year to build but a year to compete/contend by my definition. 85-89 wins. So our current young players/prospects quite likely will not be given a good opportunity to play in the ML and develop like Gurriel, Biggio and Teo did. We will get to see.

The expensive FAs will get old like Springer and so block young players.



John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 11:33 AM EST (#456237) #
In 2011/2012 the Can $ was worth more than the US$ but payroll didn't skyrocket. In '02 though when it hit 63 cents the team went nuts cutting (see Delgado) though.
Joe - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 12:13 PM EST (#456238) #
The early aughts were austerity on purpose, I think; IIRC, Ricciardi was hired with that as his mandate (and/or demand?)
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 12:37 PM EST (#456239) #
The [NHL] cap needs to be high enough that teams in Florida lose money if they pay up to it.

Given that they're both near the cap now, it feels like it would be ~$120M or more.. At which point you might be back to the "poorer teams can't compete" problem.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 01:47 PM EST (#456240) #
David Schoenfeld (ESPN)’s prediction for Alonso:

‘Best available: No. 7 Pete Alonso (Projection: 6 years, $159 million)

Others: Anthony Rizzo, Ty France, Rowdy Tellez

Best fits: San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays

Did the Mets confirm their intention to move on from Alonso when they signed Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter and reportedly told Mark Vientos and Brett Baty to start working out at first base? Or is this still down to the Mets and Blue Jays? Are the Giants really going to run back a LaMonte Wade Jr./Wilmer Flores platoon that produced a .699 OPS and just 14 home runs? Will the Mariners finally add a big bat?

The Blue Jays probably have the most to gain in signing Alonso, especially if they're serious about moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third base to accommodate Alonso. No doubt: Guerrero, Alonso and Anthony Santander would provide a power-packed middle of the order to a lineup that ranked 26th in the majors in home runs. If Bo Bichette bounces back from his lost 2024, then you have a team that can score enough runs to make the playoffs.

Prediction: Alonso to the Blue Jays

Mets owner Steve Cohen spoke on Saturday at the team's winter event for fans, and it certainly didn't sound like Alonso is headed back to New York, with Cohen saying the negotiations have been much more difficult than with Juan Soto: "This is worse. A lot of it is, we've made a significant offer. I don't like the structures that are being presented back to us. I think it's highly asymmetric against us, and I feel strongly about it."’
soupman - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 01:55 PM EST (#456241) #
The Mets are making space for Vlad at first base. I’m not sure why Jays fans are focused on Alonso when they should be worried about losing the hall of fame level talent at that position.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 01:58 PM EST (#456242) #
Kloffenstein back with the Jays on a minor league deal.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 03:00 PM EST (#456243) #
soupman - basically right now it is trying to improve for 2025, but hopefully the Jays are trying to sign Vlad long term still. If they fail to sign him long term we'll know in a few weeks (spring training starts, Vlad says he stops negotiating). If he doesn't resign then Alonso is basically the backup - a cheaper version with less talent, but still not a total disaster. I'd much rather have Vlad but if he wants, say, $600 mil then he is gone.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 03:00 PM EST (#456244) #
" they should be worried about losing the hall of fame talent at that position."

Lots of people have commented on the Vlad situation on here but there comes a point where any Jay's fan just has to wait and see what the front office does. Much as I love Vlad, he's going to have to repeat last season several times to get in the Hall of Fame.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 04:12 PM EST (#456245) #
Im pretty sure signing Alonso can only help us re-sign Vlad.

soupman - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:02 PM EST (#456246) #
He’s on a HoF path and the only thing that will stop it is injury or he just doesn’t care enough to train and condition. I don’t know what makes him tick. But the Jays should by now and if they aren’t believers they should have traded him while he had value. He will be worth significantly less as a lame duck going to free agency in a couple weeks. But the front office also sat on their laurels while the trade value of Josh Donaldson went from whatever you think reigning MVP 7 rWAR/yr lock with term on a cheap contract is worth to the net of….PTBNL.

I expect Vlad to pick up where he left off. You can bet teams spent the winter looking at tape of him again. He has a couple hundred million on the line and seems to thrive under pressure. I wouldn’t bet against him.
soupman - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:06 PM EST (#456247) #
That doesn’t make sense to me. He has played 3b but I don’t think you would sign a fifteen year deal with anyone to play third at a stadium that has chewed up basically every third basemen they’ve ever had.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:17 PM EST (#456248) #
soupman the word on the street is Bo and Vlad are not interested in negotiating through give and take measures. Bo apparently has little interest in re-signing here. Vlad has given the FO a number which he is willing to sign. I don't know if you can call that an ultimatum but it certainly sounds like it's a "my way or the highway" approach his agents have taken and since you have no idea what that amount is then it's premature to pretend that this FO is deciding not to sign him. He could be asking for a 550,000,000 deal for 15 years and if that's the case you're complaining about the FO not signing that deal and letting him go.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe Vlad told the front office he only wants to make a nbit more than he is making this year in arbitration, something closer to Devers. Maybe he told them I only want 33,000,000/ year and only for 10 years and this FO is crazy not to offer him 330,000,000.

Maybe not when Soto is a future DH with no baserunning or defense to offer and he just averaged over 51,000,000 per year for 15 years...
uglyone - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:33 PM EST (#456249) #
The more good players want to play here, the more Vlad will want to stay imo.

There's a DH spot wide open for playing time. I doubt Alonso or Vlad would care at all if they split time between the two slots. The fact that vladdy can play some 3B too is only a bonus.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:47 PM EST (#456250) #
I completely agree. Sign Alonso and Scherzer and you're more likely to go further in the standings and playoffs and more likely to resign Vlad. He gave them the ultimatum/deadline when they had zero signings done (Hoffman and Santander ordered since).

One of the reasons, I think, that Cohen is drawing a line with Alonso is because the Jays are raising the price on Alonso and they already forced Cohen to pay more than he wanted for Soto.
Glevin - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 07:01 PM EST (#456251) #
The better the Jays are the better it is. I want a better team. Think Alonso wants to go back to Mets and is just using Jays but we'll see. Not much time left for Vladdy extension. My biggest worry is that they don't extend him and then also don't trade him and then we lose him for a 4th round pick next year. Give your best offer and if it doesn't work, go get a Tucker-like package.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 07:55 PM EST (#456252) #
Does anyone else find the wait to sign (or not sign) these players interminable? Just make a decision and close the deal! Maybe it's because the Blue Jays so often seem to miss out on the player (like Sasaki and Burnes). The endless wait seems like a prelude to disappointment.
Cracka - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 07:56 PM EST (#456253) #
I doubt Alonso or Vlad would care at all if they split time between the two slots

Alonso has stated outright that he wants to play in the field and doesn't like to DH. He had only had 1 start at DH last season and just 9 the year before. Similarly, Vlady also wants to play in the field as much as possible. They seem to have settled on a cadence that results in about 30 starts each year for him at DH. If Alonso does sign, I think the setup will look something like:
- Alonso ~120 games at 1B / ~40 as DH
- Vlady ~80 games at 3B / ~40 at 1B / ~40 at DH
- Santander ~120 games in OF / ~40 at DH
- with Kirk and a few others sharing the remaining ~40 starts at DH.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 08:14 PM EST (#456254) #
Cracka - that makes a lot of sense, with Clement covering 3B for 80, with 40 G in LF covered by a mix of Schneider and Lukes I'd figure (I am guessing the 2 of them will be on the bench with Clement, a backup catcher, and someone else). 40 DH games is 6-7 a month for each of Vlad/Santander/Alonso and that shouldn't be asking too much as ideally it would mean fewer full days off for all of them. If Vlad does well on defense at 3B his time at DH/1B could be cut back further.

Or the Jays sign Bregman and make it moot as he'd be at 3B everyday and Alonso is left with just the Mets as suitors. Or trade for someone, or lord knows what.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 08:21 PM EST (#456255) #
"Alonso has stated outright that he wants to play in the field and doesn't like to DH"

maybe, but i betcha Alonso would be a lot more willing to sign here if he knew vladdy was sticking around.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 09:11 PM EST (#456256) #
I don't expect Schneider to see much MLB time this year... he's basically the new Greg Bird... and there are better options on the cusp of the majors.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 10:45 PM EST (#456257) #
Anyone hearing these "Jays have raised their offer" rumours about Alonso? Apparently they've gone to 3 years 30 million.

Also a crazy rumour from BVM Sports of an Ernie Clement Jordan Montgomery deal.

Second tier sources.
mendocino - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 11:41 PM EST (#456258) #
Yes, someone named Lev on X posted the numbers a day or two ago, swears by his source and taking alot of hits because it hasn't happened yet.
Also hear Mets going after Mountcastle.
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