Well, the winter keeps going and we're nearing Spring Training so what is the status vs past Jays teams?
Using fWAR by primary position (IE: a guy might have played at DH as well as C but all their stats show up at C due to how FG only has full splits from 2002 on and I want to capture the 83-93 contending stretch for comparisons)
Using fWAR by primary position (IE: a guy might have played at DH as well as C but all their stats show up at C due to how FG only has full splits from 2002 on and I want to capture the 83-93 contending stretch for comparisons)
- C: 2022 7.9 (Kirk, Jansen, Moreno, Heineman, Collins), 1983 5.4, 2023 4.7, 2010 4.6, 2015 4.5, 2018 4.3, 1990 4.0 ... negatives in 1977, 1994, 2007, 1979, 2002, 2013, 2014, 1995 (worst at -1.3 - Lance Parrish, Randy Knorr, Sandy Martinez)
- 1B: 1993 8.3 (John Olerud, Domingo Martinez), 2000 7.4, 2024 7.4, 1988 6.6, 2015 6.6, 1989 6.4, 6 more in the 5's ... 2011 the only year in the negatives (-0.4 Adam Lind, Mark Teahen, David Cooper, Juan Rivera)
- 2B: 1992 6.0 (Roberto Alomar, Alfredo Griffin), 2021 6.0, 2024 5.9 (over 1500 PA so a bit of a cheat), 2004 5.7, 2008 5.2 ... 12 years in the negatives (1987, 1986, 2012, 2018, 1978, 2017, 1981, 2000, 2013, 1979, 1977) with the worst being 1997 (Mariano Duncan, Tilson Brito, Carlos Garcia)
- 3B: 2010 8.7 (José Bautista, Edwin Encarnación, John McDonald, Jarrett Hoffpauir), 2015 8.7, 2016 8.0, 2008 5.6, 2005 5.3, 1985 5.2, 1988 5.0 ... 5 years in the negatives - 2001, 2020, 1997, 1994, 1981 (Ted Cox, Garth Iorg, Ken Macha, Danny Ainge)
- SS: 1987 5.2 (Tony Fernandez, Manuel Lee), 1999 5.0, 2022 4.9, 1990 4.9, 2021 4.9, 1986 4.5 ... 9 years in the negatives - 1983, 1994, 1991, 1980, 2000, 1982, 1984, 1978, and worst of all 1981 -2.0 (Fred Manrique, Alfredo Griffin) - note, top years were headlined by either Fernandez or Bichette except for '99 with a 'wow' year from Tony Batista who, par for the course, was moved to 3B the next season.
- LF: 2006 6.6 (Reed Johnson, Frank Catalanotto, Chad Mottola), 2021 6.0, 1984 6.0, 1987 6.0, 2002 5.8, 1991 5.7 (no others over 5) ... 9 years in the negatives - 1997, 2008, 1981, 1982, 1994, 1996, 1995, 2004, and worst is 1977 -1.6 (Al Woods & John Scott)
- CF: 1992 7.3 (Devon White, Derek Bell, Turner Ward), 1984 6.8, 2008 6.5, 1991 6.2, 2006 5.8, 1983 5.5, 1993 5.4 ... 5 years sub 0 - 2009, 1981, 1980, 1977, 2011 -1.4 was the worst (Corey Patterson, Adam Loewen, Dewayne Wise, Darin Mastroianni, Rajai Davis, Colby Rasmus)
- RF: 2011 8.7 (José Bautista, Eric Thames, Adam Loewen), 2010 8.1, 1986 7.5, 1985 6.8, 1984 6.2, 6 years in the 5's ... just 4 years in the negatives - 1996, 1994, 2019, 2017 at -1.0 the worst (José Bautista,Michael Saunders, Norichika Aoki, Anthony Alford, Ian Parmley)
- DH: 2022 8.5 (George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Zack Collins, Vinny Capra), 2013 5.6, 1993 4.8, 1977 4.6, 2015 4.5 ... 11 years in the negatives - 2000, 2017, 1986, 2008, 1979, 2010, 1991, 1989, 1985, 1999, and worst is 1982 -3.9 (Wayne Nordhagen, Dave Revering, Leon Roberts, Tony Johnson, Glenn Adams, Otto Velez, John Mayberry, Pedro Hernandez, Dick Davis)
- SP: 2008 18.7 (A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, David Purcey), 1997 18.2, 1984 16.9, 1991 16.6, 1998 16.1, 1987 15.8 ... never negative, the worst 4 were sub 7 - 2018, 1981, 2013, and 2012 (Ricky Romero, Henderson Alvarez, Brandon Morrow, Carlos Villanueva, Aaron Laffey, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison) - listed just guys with 10+ starts as it'd get nuts otherwise.
- RP: 1989 8.9 (Duane Ward, Tom Henke, David Wells, Frank Wills used 15 relievers), 1986 7.6, 1993 6.2, 1991 6.1, 2017 5.9, 1987 5.3, 2007 5.2 ... 4 negative years in 1977, 1979, 1984, 2024 -2.5 (Génesis Cabrera, Zach Pop, Chad Green, Brendon Little, Erik Swanson, Trevor Richards, Nate Pearson - 28 total relievers used) 40+ games or 40+ IP only listed.
Note: Players can be listed at multiple positions it seems as their 'primary position' thus Bautista and Encarnacion at 3B in 2010. Not exactly fair, but this gives a good idea of how strong or weak the Jays were at various positions over the years. 1987 shows how you can have a MASSIVE hole at a position (2B) and still win 97 games (Gillick really screwed the pooch that year by not improving 2B at any point as even 1 WAR there would've got them into a tie breaker at least). DH was ugly in '89 and '85 (both division champs). RF is funny - Bautista the main man both in the best year for our RF's and in the worst year for it. We also see some bad years can have amazing performances at a single position but it is a team game (see RF in 2010 and 2011, both 4th place finishes).
So what is projected for this year and where does it land? Using ZiPS since it lists by position totals. If tied I list the years it ties with, if not then I list the year above and the year below (normally a 0.1 spread on each side). This should give us an idea as to what to expect based on history.
- C: 3.5 - 9th (1988-2024)
- 1B: 3.8 -18th (2001-2023)
- 2B: 3.9 -12th (2009-1982)
- 3B: 2.0 -25th (tied with 2007)
- SS: 3.3 -16th (2015-2013)
- LF: 2.2 -21st (tied with 2019 & 2018)
- CF: 2.9 -20th (tied with 2021)
- RF: 1.6 -33rd (tied with 2000)
- DH: 2.0 -18th (tied 2021, 1998, 1996)
- SP: 13.8 -11th (1983-2016)
- RP: 3.2 -18th (2008-2015)
Catcher is a top 10 all time Jays position right now with Kirk, our Starters despite the fear are also on the edge of being top 10 Jays all time. If Alonso is added DH would climb from 0.9 to 2.0 to 3.0 (his ZIPs projection figuring DH would mostly be a mix of him and Vlad who is over 3 in projections) which would push it to 12th all time (tied with 2005). Bregman would push 3B to 3.3 from 2.0 - a similar jump if you assume DH is now at 2.0 - and goes from 25th all time to a tie for 17th (1987). Do both and that adds 2.3 wins to the projections overall which is very big (maybe more as the bench jumps then with Clement moving to a bench role, and the kids left in AAA or used to trade for more pitching). Of course, this is all projection which can be very wrong, but it is the best guess we have for 2025.
I did a division comparison earlier with ZiPS where the Jays were 1st at 1B, 2B; 2nd at C, SS, CF; 3rd nowhere; 4th at LF (move to 3rd with Santander ahead of the Yanks), SP; 5th at 3B, DH (Santander in LF old LF to DH moves it to 1st in division), RF, RP and overall (ahead of the Rays & Red Sox overall with Santander added in over DH's). Yeah, the DH's in our division suck this year - only Boston was expected to be at 2.0 pre-Santander signing. Of course, I'm not factoring in any changes the 4 other teams in the division made since the projections were made as I don't feel like doing that much digging to be honest. Once all ZiPs are done for all teams they'll have a good summary available to use just before the season starts and hopefully the Jays add more to make it look better.